MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:08 PM
Dennis Aftermath

Dennis has made landfall as a minimal Category 3 storm, between Navarre Beach and Pensacola Beach, it is moving inland now and weakening rapidly. Strong gusty winds, some to hurricane strength may still be felt miles inland.

The landfall time was at 2:25PM CDT. There was a gust to 121 miles an hour recorded at a monitoring tower at Navarre Beach. Damage reports are sparse now, but we may get some before the night falls. The worst was to the east of the landfall point.

The National Hurricane Center predicted landfall position almost dead on, intensity wasn't too far off. Luckily the storm was in the middle of an eyewall replacement when it made landfall, which kept it from going back into strong 3 status. Similar to ivan, but slightly stronger than ivan, the core was smaller than Ivan however. Intensity was off, and in Florida's favor.

Aparantly and thankfully dry air managed to sap the system and distrupt Dennis during the eyewall replacement cycle. This weakened Dennis almost as rapidly as it strengthened yesterday.

The possibility was mentioned, but not entirely expected.

The wave in the Central Atlantic may become TD#5 in the next few days, potentially as early as late tonight.

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Event Related Links

Emergency Management
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Monroe County/Florida Keys,
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar

Eglin AFB Radar

Dennis
MODIS Ultra High Resolution Dennis Satellite Images
Google Map Plot of dennis along with Ivan
High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis

Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis

98L/Area in Central Atlantic
Animated Model Plot of 98L

Webcams, Video, Audio
Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when Dennis arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam - Live Video Stream from Mark's HIRT Tahoe HIRT Tower On the coast in Perdido Key: Conditions and Webcam

Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock - Jeff Flock Live Stream!
Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM
Weathervine.com Storm Chasing
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam - Mobile Bay webcam recording will being the AM of the 10th here
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola i streaming live coverage
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile Alabama - Streaming Video 10PM
Pensacola Beach Cam 2
Panama City/Destin webcams

WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL .

Police Scanner Streams
Mobile Police - Mobile, AL

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Anyone have a nice radar link for the central and easter atlantic, and the africa coast?

Thanks

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:18 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

This is a cool site Nate.

University of Wisconsin

Satellite though!

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:19 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Thanks looks great.

Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:30 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Initial reports...keep in mind that these aren't first-hand...are that the Fort Walton Beach/Mary Esther area fared somewhat better than they did during Ivan. However, I think that to some degree this may be misleading. After all, Ivan basically stripped the older trees and structures just ten months ago, so I think that it's fair to say that potential projectiles were much fewer (relatively speaking) this time around. Had Ivan missed this area last year, the effects of Dennis would probably have been much worse. No word on storm surge in the area.

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:35 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Ill say this again.. HURRICANECITY Just mentioned it.. When this thing hit, it was not a CAT 3 OR 4.

Lysis
(User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:36 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Had Ivan missed this area last year, the effects of Dennis would probably have been much worse.

Exactly... for example, if a storm of the same exact intensity as Charley were to hit here, I think the damage would be far less. For one, everything weak or unable to withstand extreme winds is already leveled. Secondly, what was repaired was done so to more rigorous code, and lastly, people are going to prepare for the storm much more effectively.

Ill say this again.. HURRICANECITY Just mentioned it.. When this thing hit, it was not a CAT 3 OR 4.

What do you mean?

EDIT: heh... exactly, Keith.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:39 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

An example of natural selection only with buildings and hurricanes!

erauwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:39 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 102106
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DENNIS...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
OR NEAR MOLINO FLORIDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ...ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1180 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

- here we go .....

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:43 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

I am hoping that this is good news and indicative that no one died from tornados.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:44 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Quote:

Ill say this again.. HURRICANECITY Just mentioned it.. When this thing hit, it was not a CAT 3 OR 4.



We will have to wait on an official determination by NHC.

HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA AS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE...

Dougyd
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 09:51 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Hurricane City seems to be mostly advertisements. Am I missing something?
Doug

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:04 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

They switch around alot from Coverage to Coverage..

They had a local Forecaster on from Panama City and he and Jim Williams both stated that when a Cane enters the northern Gulf it seems to lose alot of strength.

He also stated that it will be interesting to see what THE NHC says about this, he went on to add that even tho early reports were CAT 3, That the top wind speeds were minimal. The top speeds were 131 mile gusts that were taken on a tower 10 M above ground. That would mean top speeds were 90-100 Miles per hour at Navvare Beach.

He just went to MSNBC cause he said that his live show isnt going to good. There isnt much going on with this storm.

Seems like a few of you were kind of upset that this thing wasnt destructive. It will be interesting the next few days to see what all is said and goes on. But I must say THANK GOD this thing wasnt as bad as thought of.

Mike Sidel just reported highest Gust in Mobile were 74 MPH.

Confirmed Torando Touchdown in Florida in an open field off of Route 132 across from the Baptist Church.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Have a report that the bridge between Ocaloosa and Destin is out. highway 98 and significant surge around FWB, anyone else confirm?

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:26 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Quote:

He also stated that it will be interesting to see what THE NHC says about this, he went on to add that even tho early reports were CAT 3, That the top wind speeds were minimal. The top speeds were 131 mile gusts that were taken on a tower 10 M above ground. That would mean top speeds were 90-100 Miles per hour at Navvare Beach.



the tower is 10M high but that wind speed was measured at 5M (16ft).

http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Dennis/T0/NOAA-Dennis-T0-2005-07-10-19-09-00.txt

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:30 PM
Category 3

Until NHC issues a report saying Dennis was something other than a Category 3.
Dennis made landfall as a Category Three.

HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

DENNIS MADE LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA AT 1925Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 100 TO 105 KT...BASED ON
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT AT 1928Z...TWO STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER OBSERVATIONS OF 100 KT JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT LANDFALL
ALSO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.

EaglezFan42
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:32 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

There you are Nate.

Tropical Wave

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:34 PM
Re: Category 3

Daniel, I think you should know Im not agruibng on what the NHC says. But no where in that area was CAT 3 winds recorded. GUSTS were 131

Also, saying Tropical Depression Emily may be named tonight.

Nate, there is a LOT of data that has not been compiled yet as this thing just made landfall a few hours ago. Let's let this rest a while.

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:36 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Quote:

There you are Nate.

Tropical Wave



Thanks

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:38 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Lysis, you bring up a great point.Here in Martin County we went through the eyewall of Frances and Jeanne and the power went out at about 45 mph during Frances but stayed on until around 70mph during Jeanne we think to the same things you are referring to, Frances pruning everything and then FPL upgrading all the damaged areas.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:43 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

98 between Destin and FWB is under water. If you have been down in that area you will see why.

starwise
(Registered User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:48 PM
To Beatlesgal- ANDREW

I know the feeling .. it does make you sick. I call it flashback anxiety. I've had it every hurricane season since Andrew .. I could crawl under the bed in a fetal position. And I've come to HATE THE WIND ... I HATE it!! My insides just turn to jello. I've been glued to this storm for the last 3 days .. almost non-stop.

Thank you for that view of Andrew .. I've never seen it ...and it's horrible to see again how fearsome it was .. a Cat. 5!

I was 5 mins. from Homestead Air Force Base -- 280 St. and 157th Ave., Naranja Lakes .. didn't have a chance. Across the street were 5 mobile home communities, so all that sheet metal peeled off and ended up as a lethal hazards everywhere. Even experienced pilots who had flown in Viet Nam bringing us our salvation and food said it was worse than what they'd seen in Viet Nam. That's where the bomb went off, and where the most deaths in one development occurred.

I was homeless, and lived at 6 different places in 6 weeks .. until I got based in a house in Leisure City that survived ... so I could salvage for about the next 6 months (had friends I was helping salvage two of their devastated homes, too).

30% of the Homestead population moved out after Andrew .. big chunk of the population.

After last season's terrors, where I had located after Andrew east of Tampa, I finally cracked ... fell apart .. had to get out after 30+ years, and I'm SO grateful I don't ever have to face these again. It becomes a wound you carry with you forever. I'll take winter and snow gladly.

I pray for the folks suffering there today ... may God bless them .. what they're facing now is pure heartbreak.. especially after last year, but when you have your life, you have everything .. the rest comes with time. Take care.



Star .. in Chicago

Big Red Machine
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:49 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Quote:

Lysis, you bring up a great point.Here in Martin County we went through the eyewall of Frances and Jeanne and the power went out at about 45 mph during Frances but stayed on until around 70mph during Jeanne we think to the same things you are referring to, Frances pruning everything and then FPL upgrading all the damaged areas.



I agree wholeheartedly guys. Hurricanes like Ivan and Frances acted much like the brushfires set by firefighters during wildfire season, they cleared out the clutter that had built up in the previous lull of hurricane activity (older, unhealthy trees; outdated roofs; etc).

In Orlando we got hit by C, F, and J, last year, and by the time we got to Jeanne, we just weren't seeing much damage. Newer buildings fair quite well in these storms, the post-Andrew building code is terrific.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:52 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

I have spoken to my parents in the Marianna area and they were to the east of the storm north of Panama City. They said the rain is pretty thick at times and they did get wind. There are of course the usual flood potentials because of previous rains and the Chattahoochee and Blountstown Rivers routinely flood after large storms. All in All it was a definite "God" thing that this storm decided to wind down as it made landfall. That is not to say that people in general will not suffer from costs for emergency management. People who due to finances and other reasons are forced to live in sub-standard housing for hurricanes are suffering in shelters. All in All a terrible storm has been less terrible than it could have been for Florida due to fine forecasting and the willingness of people to act on good advanced notice.

toemastergeneral
(Registered User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:53 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Just got a call from my neighbor and there is an old oak tree lying across my playroom. No power right now in Gulf Breeze Proper. I will head back tomorrow to assess the damage. Just got my new roof from Ivan's aftermath about three months ago.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:54 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Hey guys, hope any of you in the path of Dennis have escaped the worst. He weakened quite rapidly prior to landfall, which was of course a good thing. The timing of the ERC was just right to benefit anywhere in his path, in that he had weakened and couldnt restrengthen really. Also a good thing was the fact that the highest winds, and those of Hurricane force, were limited to within just 40 to 50 miles of the centre. Still looks like the worst has not yet been felt though. The worst being the likely flooding to come later in the week when Dennis stalls out over the Ohio / Mississippi Valleys. Could really cause a few problems later this week with some pretty major flooding.

The other news of course is our little system out in the central Atlantic. Looks like it will become TD5 within the next 24 hours. Models have been picking up on this in the past day or two. It is a potential headache for the western Caribbean once again.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 10:54 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Everyone involved "lucked out" with Dennis all the way around. I still have 20-25 mph winds here but it is looking better.

birdwomn
(Registered User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:03 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Where abouts in Gulf Breeze do you live? My brother lives there as well and I am trying to get an idea of how the houses in his neighborhood did. He is out near the WalMart.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:18 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Yes, let's give credit where credit is due ... a definite "God" thing, good forecasting, good preparation, but still something we would never wish on anyone. All I know is that we left home this morning for church and prayed that people would be spared the catastrophic damage of a major hurricane, and that Dennis would weaken before hitting land (presumably like many others across the nation). With Dennis at a cat IV and talk of the strongest storm to possibly hit the area in over 36 years, it is nothing short of miraculous that the situation isn't worse. I'll echo the sentiment of others here, Thank God!

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:23 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Torriental Downpours are going to be the biggest problem.. CNN is shoing alot of slooding in St. Marks, FLA.

Even with all the Tornado Warnings, there has only been 1 confirmed touchdown and that was in an open field in Florida off Route 132. I say once again, everyone was lucky here.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:26 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Quote:

Just got a call from my neighbor and there is an old oak tree lying across my playroom. No power right now in Gulf Breeze Proper. I will head back tomorrow to assess the damage. Just got my new roof from Ivan's aftermath about three months ago.



OK - you had to wait 7 mos to get a new roof, finally got it, and 3 mos later Dennis causes a tree to fall on it? You are a lot calmer about it than I could manage to be!

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:29 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Quote:

..."shoing alot of slooding"...

?

Not sure what it means, but it sounds kind of interesting.

Maybe it's time to take a nap if you were up all night!

Nate
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Well With the Storm winding down, I may be signing off.

Im glad everyone here made it thru this, and hope everything goes good.

Thanks again for the Links.

Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:36 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Hwy 98 between Destin and FWB tends to flood during every storm. Inconvenient, but not unexpected. We're all breathing a huge sigh of relief right now. Aside from the streamlining of potential debris courtesy of Ivan, the forward speed of this storm spared us an extended duration of hurricane force winds. While power is out in my neighborhood, many of the folks I spoke to still had electricity. Definitely better news than I expected to hear earlier today! I'll be spending the next day or two reclaiming my sanity as I await the Air Force's recall order.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:37 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

A question from a non-techie (that is, me).

It seemed from the radar that the hurricane looked very much the same even as it was making landfall, that is, it seemed there were high winds in the hurricane, but somehow it seemed that they didn't make it to the ground.

If that is the case, how does that happen? I mean, in weather terms. What does it mean in terms of calibrating the hurricane's intensity? I'm assuming it would still matter if it could be seen from radar, even if it couldn't be felt from the ground. And would there be any way to find out if this is happening so you'd know that the intensity on the ground was going to be less.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:39 PM
done?

well, i know it isn't as dramatic.. but when this sucker slows down near the ohio/mississippi confluence later this week dennis is still going to be causing big problems. wouldn't be surprised if places up there get fifteen or better inches by friday... though it's been really dry up there since the spring.
HF 0039z11july

BLTizzle
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:41 PM
Re: done?

I've been away from my computer for a while and I'm wondering what those of us in the Tuscaloosa area can expect for tonight. We are roughly 30 miles WSW of Birmingham for those that don't know. Thanks!!!

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:46 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

No tech here either,
I'm wondering if it is a function of the % of the feeder bands located over land and not absorbing ocean heat. Maybe one of the mets could speak about this?

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:54 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

I thought the same thing ref to the large expanse of feeder bands that were already spread over the rest of Florida and Northward and very little left over the Gulf waters. Something strange was going on with Dennis as he approached landfall. Perhaps an act of God.

laxpimpj
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:55 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

It certainly didn't end up as bad as I thought it would.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jul 10 2005 11:58 PM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

I would rather explain it in terms of atmospheric physics.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:05 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Others here have made reference to the Eyewall Replacement Cycle. This is a natural evolution of the tropical cyclone as it cycles through periods of strengthening and weakening. The radar iamges we see show a "slice" of the atmosphere just above the surface of the earth. What is going on throughout the entire volume of the atmosphere is quite complex, though. What we see on radar is usually a response to other factors in the atmosphere - like dry air intrustion, and the weakening of an eye wall as winds weaken and spread out.

As we saw with Andrew, hurricanes can rapidly strengthen as well and produce winds at the surface even higher than what might be estimated from radar. Lots of research from people much smarter than myself continues to be done on how to best analyze and forecast these short-term changes.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:06 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

You may wish to believe it that way, but it was really a combination of an eyewall replacement cycle and cooler waters just offshore that likely caused Dennis to weaken. Last year was somewhat of an abberation for tropical cyclone tornadoes, with so many from all of the storms; the number seen with this one so far (about 5-10) is more of a normal figure.

Winds that may translate down to the surface from upper levels (not downbursts here...but just the wind speed that is found at the lower levels in conjunction with the upper level winds) are generally going to be higher over water than over land due to frictional effects. There is much less friction over water than there is over land, leading to higher wind speeds. Friction can knock quite a bit off of a storm's intensity pretty quickly all by itself; the loss of the warm waters will serve to weaken the storm even further once it makes landfall. The combination of the two factors helped to see the quick change in structure and intensity once inland.

With the storm moving north, almost all of the convection, outflow, and light/moderate tropical rains is going to be found on the north side -- this holds true for just about every such tropical cyclone. The outer feeder bands are nothing out of the ordinary; while the dry slot to its east may not occur with every storm, it certainly is not an uncommon experience, either. Needless to say, Dennis was a pretty formidable storm at landfall, one which the Pensacola area will be cleaning up from for years to come. Category 2, category 3, category 4...it doesn't matter...the damage is still going to be very extensive.

DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:12 AM
Re: done?

Between 12 and 2 am we got a rain band and had torrential rain , lightning, and wind gusts to 50 mph and at times it seemed alot stronger gusts as it pounded the rain against my windows. Man it really brought bad horrible memories from last year being in the eye of both frances and jeanne. Needless to say My nerves were shot all over again last night my heart really went out to those dealing with dennis today. Thank God it wasn't as bad as it could have been

Lysis
(User)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:14 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

... I thought friction with land was responsible for higher inland gusts (I think you told me that)???

laxpimpj
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:32 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

can someone look at this picture and tell me which of these figures (a b or c) is expected to develop into a TD?
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v326/laxpimpj/ishatl.jpg

abyrd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:35 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

I believe it is B

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:38 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

i think it is b and c
b forming first, probably tomorrow
this is not what i know, but what i heard here

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:39 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Quote:

can someone look at this picture and tell me which of these figures (a b or c) is expected to develop into a TD?
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v326/laxpimpj/ishatl.jpg

Right now the focus is on B. A appears to be in a high shear environment and I don't see a mention of C in the discussions as yet.

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:39 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

A: NWS MLB says it will not bring significant weather, but bears watching.
B: Thats 98L, may become a TD later tonight or Monday
C: Could also develop, but needs to move farther west before anything happens.

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:45 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

As for which has some potential for development...I think the answer is "D - All of the above". The way things have been going so far this year I think you could blow a smoke-ring from a cigar and have it develop. Starting to make me wonder why I have a cruise booked for....October...

Pensacola101
(Registered User)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:45 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Just a post from someone in Pensacola here. Pensacola got lucky on this one. The sudden jump northward at the last minute saved our butts. From just being out a little bit ago, nothing major is damaged. There are a few trees down and a few landed on some structures. Roads were passable (which was impossible with Ivan right after).

And I got extremely lucky and did not loose power durring the entire storm. I don't know how that happend, but quite a few places in town never lost power. I think maybe Ivan already cleared all the trees that were weak. So this time there were fewer trees falling all over the power system.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:52 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Lysis, there is a means by which you can see higher inland gusts, but it's not really friction. Where friction saps wind speed compared to being over water, the loss of the mechanism to maintain the hurricane (the warm waters & moisture off of the ocean) also leads to a greater susceptibility for downdrafts to form.

Primarily, these things can form with the introduction of dry air into the midlevels of the column, where evaporative cooling from precipitation leads to an increased susceptibility for downdrafts as the convection dies out within the storm. In the tropics, the moisture and heating that is carried upward by convective updrafts helps to maintain the atmosphere in a state not to allow this to happen, maintaining the convection and updrafts and leading to a feedback cycle upon which the storm may grow. (As an aside, note that it is not the convection that drives the storm, but it is the updrafts from the convection which provide a conduit for the moisture and energy to be transported aloft and drive the storm.)

In summary, higher winds are felt at the low-levels off-shore as a result of a strong, well-defined circulation...upon landfall, this begins to be impacted at the lower levels first, resulting in lower overall winds speeds, but the landfall also results in the decay of the convection, by which high winds still present above the boundary layer (about 5000ft up) not impacted by friction may be transported down to the surface. After this point, the winds aloft begin to die off with the overall circulation as it spins down over land.

Hope this helps clarify things somewhat!

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:53 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Had a few responses already to this, but here's my thoughts: A is primarily just convection firing up in response to divergent winds aloft on the SE side of an upper-level trough. B is the focus for the next possible TD, while C bears some watching down the road but is too far east and not well-enough organized to be too concerned with yet.

Pensacola101
(Registered User)
Mon Jul 11 2005 12:54 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Here is a site to our local newspaper with some aftermath shots up:

Pensacola News Journal

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:23 AM
NRL says Noname 5

First of all, I think we have to breathe an enormous sigh of relief that Dennis weakened. Come to think of it, it seems like alot of storms weaken when they get to the northern gulf of Mexico.

In other news, the Atlantic basin believes that it is late August, as (according to NRL) the wave in the central atlantic has become TD5. This may or may not be true, but my hunch is that it actually is true.

Probably wont deepen too quickly, but going over progressively warmer waters, so it should strengthen

Lysis
(User)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:24 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Clark: So if a hurricane can be looked upon as a perfect heat engine, the process you are describing would be the “engine” running on fumes?

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:27 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

A hurricane is a thermodynamic circulation, an engine is an ideal metaphor. If we could harness this energy it would be worth it.


EDIT: Actually the principal of latent heat is readily used in air conditioning.

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:28 AM
Max Mayfield

Max Mayfield was just Live on CNN and said they will likely be issuing advisories on TD 5 tonight (11pm). Although he did forget what the name of the system would be once it attains Tropical Storm Strength, someone off set reminded him.

By the way, good job to folks at NHC who nailed the track of this system, and the other mets at CHFC.

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:28 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Clark - the Mets here did a great job warning folks - especially you. Kudos to you all for the gallant leadership you have provided to us all!

And, kudos to the NWC for an outstanding job plotting a track on Dennis as much as 5 days out.. that is VERY exciting and one trent that I hope continues.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:30 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Lysis, that's an excellent analogy. Hurricanes are generally thought of as heat engines -- in fact, we think of them as Carnot cycles (of energy/heat); that's where all of the theory behind the last descriptive post came from -- although not perfect ones (we generally see an efficiency of about 33% with most tropical systems). It's still got some energy left over as it makes landfall, but afterward, it really is just running on fumes. The circulation begins to decay; if conditions are right, it may become extratropical and redevelop that way (probably not going to see that here); and the engine eventually stops as a tropical cyclone. Extratropical cyclones are a whole 'norther story, one I'll leave for another day, but the analogy definitely holds for a tropical cyclone.

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:31 AM
TD 5 Forms

Just after the previous post, checked the NRL site and 05LNoname is listed there, so I guess advisories will be issued on TD5 at 11, as Max Mayfield said.

BillD
(User)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:33 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

I agree about Dennis, I was thinking the worst (the strengthening almost to cat5 South of Cuba) and hoping for the best, and the best did happen.

I see that they are in the process of shifting 98L over to 05LNONAME on the NRL website . We might hear something about this in the 11:00 PM Discussion, once the NHC gets a very short break after Dennis.

August in July, this makes me really concerned about what August will bring...

Bill

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:40 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

August in July- then won't July be in August? A little pun never hurt anyone.

drcrazibob
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:41 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

I think I'm starting to get really bugged by these Reporters on the Networks. They all make the scariest Alerts, and most of the people that it's important for can't see them anyway because they have no power!!!! I know you all have sat in the eyes of plenty of hurricanes and can relate with what I'm talking about.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:42 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

At the rate we are going we will have November by September and will be wearing fur liners on our swimsuits!

Big Red Machine
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:43 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Clark, do eyewall replacement cycles occur on a regular basis, and if so, how often? Also, is the anticipated occurence of an eyewall replacement cycle taken into account when forecasting a hurricane's intensity at landfall (as at a certain point of the cycle, such as when Dennis hit Cuba, the cyclone is at a much higher intensity, than the point in the cycle that Dennis was at when he hit today).

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:47 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Max also saying he is pretty sure that the name Dennis will be retired, just in case people were wondering.

DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:49 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Maybe the season will end early since it started early

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:50 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Here's a rundown on EWRC's

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=22268&an=0&page=0#22268

ohioaninmiss
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:50 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Quote:

August in July, this makes me really concerned about what August will bring...



From Dr. Jeff Masters over at Wunderground on his July 5th Blog:

Dr. Chris Landsea notes in his excellent Hurricane FAQ that "the overall number of named storms (hurricanes) occurring in June and July (JJ) correlates at an insignificant r = +0.13 (+0.02) versus the whole season activity. In fact, there is a slight negative relationship between early season storms (hurricanes) versus late season (August through November) r = -0.28 (-0.35). Thus, the overall early season activity, be it very active or quite calm, has little bearing on the season as a whole.

SeeSaw99
(Registered User)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:50 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

I am certainly an amateur when it comes to hurricanes, but I've heard a few people here mention that hurricanes can "sap" the strength of the warm ocean water they cross by causing an upwelling of deeper, cooler water. Is there any way that a series of strong storms/hurricanes early in the season moving across the same general Cape Verde track could hinder the development of later storms? Or is the overall effect on the ocean not this prominent?

This may be somewhat of an ignorant question, but just trying to understand what happens in the water after a particular storm moves on.

Great site, by the way. The knowledge here really is incredible.

Thanks.

Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:52 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

If the whole season is this active, our prediction numbers are going to be way off! My eyes are already crossing from all this "bear watching".

Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:54 AM
Re: TD # 5

Nice ball of convection developing over the center of TD # 5, shear is initially low ahead of it, so it should develop rather rapidly as it heads for the windward or leeward islands in a couple of days.

TG

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:54 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Big Red Machine, eyewall replacement cycles occur on a somewhat unpredictable basis -- we know that they occur, usually with some advance warning in the form of a secondary outer eyewall (whether observed by plane, satellite, or radar), but they can occur anywhere from every 12 or so hours to every 2 or so days, often time changing up in the middle of the game. They are most frequent with major hurricanes, though can be observed in weaker storms as well. There is still a lot that we don't know about them, however, and work is ongoing to develop a set of storms that underwent such cycles for future study towards improving our knowledge of them.

They oftentimes will mention eyewall replacement cycles in the discussions for such storms, but usually will only make minor modifications to the intensity forecast as a result of them if they think one is ongoing or about to occur. This is partially due to their unpredictable nature, such as how long it will last or where it will occur, as well as their nature in generally being temporary features leading to some reintensification afterward and the distance between intensity steps (12hr in the short term) in NHC advisories. For instance, I seem to recall an advisory on Dennis calling for a wekening to 115kt in 12hr from an initial intensity of 120kt, then back to 120kt 12hr later. That's about as far as they will go, though, given the current science and the need to stay towards the middle ground for the general public.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:57 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Yes it does hinder development of future systems passing over, but also depends on the intensity of the system. Water is usually only heated to a certain depth- 30 meter's is usually the average for warm water 27 C and up, as you go down in temperature a more consistent temperature can be maintained. When weak disturbances pass over not much water is turned /upwelled, such as near Cape Verde; but once you get into major hurricanes region's (in the central atlantic and Gulf) significant upwelling can occur to such a point that it can hinder development of future systems. Hope that helps!.

BillD
(User)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:57 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

I agree with you 100%. I could go on and on about this (and have in past years) but there are only a handul of competent TV weather people, the rest have no common sense and do and say stupid and dangerous things. It is too bad we don't have more like Bryan Norcross, who saved countless lives in Andrew with his non stop litany of how to stay safe when your roof blew off and your windows blew in, as this was actually happening across South Dade all night long. And mets like Jason Kelley, who tells it like it is. But the [many bad words I can't say or my post will be deleted] "reporters" on CNN, MSNBC, FOX, and TWC, not to mention the morons at the local stations, shouldn't be allowed to say what they say. They put people's lives in danger, and all to make money for their stations. To me this is something that the FCC should regulate, not whether someone said the S-word in a movie. These morons could cost people their lives because they don't know what they are saying, and are trying to be sensational in how they say it.

I've said too much already....

Update, just to clarify, those that I am complaining about are not mets (with one or two exceptions), they are just reporters or commentators that think they know it all.

Bill

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Jul 11 2005 01:59 AM
Re: TD # 5

I like tropical activity (landfalls and destruction are a far different matter) but this is getting ridiculous. 5 systems by early July. I wonder where the new system will go

h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:02 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Here we go again...model output on soon to be TD #5...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:05 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Hi SeeSaw,

The effect on the ocean depends upon the oceanic temperature profile with depth as well as the strength of each storm. A hurricane can churn up the waters sufficiently to have a 8-10 day recovery period. Tropical storms and depressions have a weaker impact, largely due to the weaker winds (it is the winds of a storm that draw the energy and moisture from the sea surface & underlying waters) and weaker transport mechanisms for the energy found within these storms. Major hurricanes likely have a larger impact, with category 4 torms having been shown to churn up the waters all the way down to 200ft. Usually, the cooler waters below the surface get warmed up, while the near-surface waters cool down -- this suggests mixing going on within the ocean.

If a series of storms were to pass by in close succession, the waters could be affected enough to temporarily keep other storms in check, but the recovery period and fact that storms usually don't occur in rapid succession suggest that any such impact will be minimal and most likely to impact a single storm, usually closer to the US in the Gulf, Caribbean, or W. Atlantic. Ironically, these are also where the water is warmer to deeper levels ni the ocean, mitigating those impacts. But, a good case is Isabel in 2003 -- as it passed over the waters that Fabian had churned up just a week prior, the storm rapidly began its weakening process, as the master's work of one of my friends has shown.

Do note that the waters off of tge coast of Africa are generally warm only near the top, due to the cool Canary current running through the area, but that since storms are generally pretty weak out there, any such impacts are usually quickly relieved.

So, in summary, it's possible -- and has happened before -- but not too likely.

ohioaninmiss
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:09 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Clark -

Your knowledge and the clarity of your explanations constantly amazes me! I add my thanks for all that you do. You have made us all more intelligent!!

EaglezFan42
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:12 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

I just read about a tracking system consisting of two box models ( I forget what the name of the system was) that says if a hurricane or tropical storm passes over the two regions where the boxes are located, the hurricane has a great possibility to hit South Florida. The two box places are over the Leeward Islands and in the Caribbean Sea between Cuba and Honduras right to the WSW of Jamaica. Now, I know that the path of TD # 5 will obviously fluccuate for a while but right now, the forecast paths take TD # 5 to both of these places.

I just wanted to know if any of youse have ever heard of this tracking system and if it has predicted well in previous years.

Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:12 AM
Re: TD # 5

Looking at the new model plots for TD #5, and taking a concensus average, looks like it will be coming into the Carib at a higher latitude than where the developing Dennis was at the time. This may pose a greater threat to the D.R or even P.R, but way to early yet. the 11pm discussion should be interesting.

TG

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:14 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Just want to tell anyone and everyone that was impacted, hope all is well. Also, want to thank everyone, particularly the pros on this site, for all their knowledge and guidance !!!!!

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:15 AM
Re: TD # 5

Is it just me or is 5 just looking like a blob. Everything else looked alot more like a TD when it was numbered.

h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:17 AM
Re: TD # 5

Oh no...check out the latest GFDL run on soon to be TD5...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

The Global models suggest it may be "interesting" for the SE next week.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:18 AM
Re: TD # 5

This could end up being that short-cut storm JB from Accuweather had been talking abut

h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:19 AM
Re: TD # 5

Quote:

Is it just me or is 5 just looking like a blob. Everything else looked alot more like a TD when it was numbered.



The last visible loop from today showed a well defined circulation.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:21 AM
Re: TD # 5

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=

05L.NONAME

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:24 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Herberts Box information can be found here
I think Charley passed through one of them last year.

EaglezFan42
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:27 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Jamiewx,
yes, thank you. that's what I was talking about. Just couldnt remember the name. Do you or does anyone else know if Herbert's Box is a somewhat reliable source to go by?

Big Red Machine
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:30 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

FtLaudbob's got a storm to actually be worried about!!

just kidding bob...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:32 AM
Re: Dennis Aftermath

Does anyone have a link to the extent of damage in the grayton beach seaside area. thanks

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:32 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

Quote:

FtLaudbob's got a storm to actually be worried about!!

just kidding bob...



This one has a chance, it might even go up his street.

ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:34 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

If you go to the supplied link and check it out, sounds like it's not a good indicator.

'shana

h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:38 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

It is official....TD#5

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_5day.html

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:38 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

not sure how good of an indicator it is if a TD or TS passes through one, the article mentions specifically Major Hurricanes.

TD Five Track Forecast - NHC

EaglezFan42
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:41 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

true. I guess I didn't read it carefully. I didn't realize that they meant that almost every hurricane that passed through those boxes hit S. Fla. BEFORE 1950. Since 1950, only a couple that went through the boxes hit S. Fla.

So yeh, I didnt read it carefully

SeeSaw99
(Registered User)
Mon Jul 11 2005 02:55 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

3- and 5-day cones out...forecast as yet another hurricane

h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 11 2005 03:08 AM
Re: NRL says Noname 5

New Topic is out....


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