MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 03:09 AM |
Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Midnight
Recon reports pressure leveling off, perhaps starting to go back down. Winds are back up, max flightlevel was around 162Mph, which would put estimated surface winds around 145MPH.
Cozumel is in bad shape, Emily is on the upswing again. God bless all the folks there. Hopefully the pressure will correct the windspeed some and it will drop.
Original Update
Emily is about to make landfall near Cozumel, Mexico in the Yucatan Peninsula. It has weakened a bit due to a weak upper level low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche, but it is holding at Category 4. The eye of emily is fluctuating wildly, right now, and for lack of a better term, fighting to hold itself together.
Southern Cozumel and areas just north of it will feel the brunt of the system, it will move over the Yucatan quite quickly and should weaken some, but remain a hurricane when it reenters the gulf near Mereda. At that time it has the chance to restrengthen again, and conditions will be favorible for it to do so.
The second landfall point is still most likely in Mexico, but southern texas will likely be under a hurricane watch as well tomorrow. And folks along there will need to prepare. There is a chance this could near brownsville, TX.
Jim Williams over at hurricane city is doing a landfall show tonight Listen Here
Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Cozumel/Cancun StormCarib reports
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf (Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emily
Flhurricane mirror of cancun radar - Cancun Radar Loop Cancun, MX radar (Overloaded please use mirrors) -
Tampico, MX radar
Visible/IR Floater of Emily with storm track Overlays
Animated Model Plot of Emily
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily
Emily Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Emily
QuikScat Image of Emily
Dennis and emily plotted on a google map
Webcams, Video, Audio
Jim Edds/weathervine chasing hurricane Emily in Cancun
Cancun Webcams
Cozumel Webcams
Hurricane City's audio feed, show starts at 11PM EDT
Radio NHCWX
Area east of Emily (99L)
Animated Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L
Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 03:45 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Looks like Cancun radar went out after that last image...or else is just overloaded.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 03:47 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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how do you let him know which city u are from? he said something bout it while ago.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 03:49 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Quote:
how do you let him know which city u are from? he said something bout it while ago.
Talking about Jim? It's http://www.hurricanecity.com/CGI_BIN/forms/forms.pl?form=1
Yeah Cancun radar is probably down for the count now.
| superfly |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 03:51 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Max flight winds up to 161 MPH now.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 03:53 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Quote:
Max flight winds up to 161 MPH now.
Where are you getting 161mph??
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 04:09 AM |
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RECON Vortex
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MAX FL WIND 141 KT NE QUAD 03:22:00 Z
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 141 Knots (162.15 MPH) From 162°
Minimum Pressure: 955 Millibars (28.200 Inches)
http://flhurricane.com/recon/
| superfly |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 04:10 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Quote:
Where are you getting 161mph??
I think this, but I got it from another BBS.
130
SXXX50 KNHC 180329
SXXX50
SXXX50 KNHC 180328
AF302 1405A EMILY HDOB 53 KNHC
0319 2008N 08620W 03036 5035 139 110 072 072 113 03052 0000000100
0319. 2007N 08621W 03053 5053 144 114 064 064 115 03051 0000000100
0320 2007N 08622W 03043 5068 150 118 084 084 121 03026 0000000100
0320. 2006N 08623W 03041 5090 154 124 102 102 126 03002 0000000000
0321 2005N 08624W 03069 5117 155 129 106 106 135 03002 0000000000
0321. 2004N 08625W 03057 5134 157 137 104 104 138 02973 0000000000
0322 2004N 08626W 03043 5159 160 140 112 112 141 02934 0000000000
0322. 2003N 08627W 03046 5189 161 136 118 118 138 02907 0000000000
0323 2002N 08629W 03039 5225 164 094 140 140 108 02864 0000000000
0323. 2002N 08630W 03047 5248 163 073 162 148 079 02849 0000000000
0324 2001N 08632W 03048 5270 153 054 176 148 062 02828 0000000000
0324. 2000N 08633W 03035 5283 145 028 148 148 034 02803 0000000000
0325 1959N 08635W 03051 5279 204 024 178 140 035 02822 0000000000
0325. 1958N 08636W 03040 5276 188 029 200 136 035 02814 0000000000
0326 1959N 08638W 03058 5280 173 013 168 140 021 02829 0000000000
0326. 2000N 08640W 03051 5280 066 016 156 132 024 02822 0000000000
0327 1959N 08642W 03048 5271 040 029 162 130 031 02827 0000000000
0327. 1958N 08643W 03040 5256 358 023 176 120 026 02835 0000000000
0328 1956N 08642W 03043 5245 315 026 220 096 032 02848 0000000000
0328. 1955N 08640W 03078 5246 283 046 224 090 047 02882 0000000000
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 04:11 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Recon report about 15 minutes ago reported 141kt at flight level. Interestingly, the report of the 141kt wind they have in the actual report itself is in the SW quadrant, but they list it as being in the NE quadrant in the remarks. Perhaps it's in both...that'd be quite a change, though, considering the south side of the storm has been pretty weak throughout.
Don't know what the NHC will do with intensity from here. The eyewall cycle seems to have short-circuited itself, or at least trying to hold off from completing, so we still have strong flight level winds with a steadily rising pressure. You usually don't see 955mb correspond to ~140mph surface winds or ~160mph flight level winds...something has to give. The winds will at landfall, as will the pressure; but, will it happen beforehand as well? That's the big question of the night.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 04:19 AM |
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Wind Speed
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0322 2004N 08626W 03043 5159 160 140 112 112 141 02934 0000000000
I've highlighted the 141kt observation. I have been monitoring the data, for several hours, and that is the highest wind speed I've seen reported.
Quote:
Interestingly, the report of the 141kt wind they have in the actual report itself is in the SW quadrant, but they list it as being in the NE quadrant in the remarks.
I'll check the quadrant from the data. I do know they were heading SW as they had started the leg from around 21.0N/ 85.1W.
A section of data didn't come through. Apparently when they were making the turn for the leg. That's 2 so far this evening.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 04:22 AM |
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Re: RECON Vortex
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Quote:
MAX FL WIND 141 KT NE QUAD 03:22:00 Z
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 141 Knots (162.15 MPH) From 162°
Minimum Pressure: 955 Millibars (28.200 Inches)
http://flhurricane.com/recon/
Yeah that's back up to 145mph at sea level. Also the thermal increased from 2 deg to 5 deg. Even though the pressure didn't drop I'm convinced she was fighting to intensify, and in one little part of the storm in the NE eyewall she got back up to a strong Cat 4.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 04:27 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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TWC said the eye is a couple of miles offshore from Cozumel and that Cozumel is in the eyewall.
| superfly |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 04:29 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Looks like the eye is just BARELY peeking out on the latest IR. Cozumel seems to be in the NE eyewall now.
http://ianlivingston.com/weather/images/2005/july/18_cozumel_eyewall.jpg
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 05:07 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Quote:
Looks like the eye is just BARELY peeking out on the latest IR. Cozumel seems to be in the NE eyewall now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
You can finally see where the eye was on the 04:15 UTC GOES FLOATER water vapor image, and to a lesser extent on the IR, just off the south of Cozumel.
| superfly |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 05:24 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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The northern eyewall looks very impressive on the IR and water vapor images. Cozumel has to be getting absolutely pounded right now.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 05:31 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Yes and on the 04:45 UTC for both water vapor and IR you can not only still see the general area of the eye, just inland, but just how symmetrical and strong the core winds remained for this hurricane, in the perfectly circular shape that the winds have pushed inland. I think even though the eye was not in tip-top shape, and the round core was not always visible, most of the day today, all the same the structure of the storm remained pretty solid.
So...it looks like Cozumel, but more especially the south part, did get the strong Cat 4 winds of the NE quad full force, and possibly the coast behind it as well.
EDIT - Yes well apparently I was wrong wrong wrong. Can't read sat images that well. Emily just going ashore now (about 1pm CDT).
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 06:13 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 (edited~danielw)
...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY
POUNDING COZUMEL...CENTER ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN...
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES... 40 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 170
MILES... 275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 06:26 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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They must have only found that 141kt once...because they stuck with the 135mph winds (which are bad enough).
I have been visiting Cozumel in the last hour...found a website with 360deg panoramic photographs of locations around the entire island, which BTW is as flat as a pancake. Aside from not having terribly many trees it looked like paradise. Luckily the one town is about 2/3 the way N on the bay side, and the only significant structure on the south end is a lighthouse on "the highest point of the island" (they don't say how high). Can a lighthouse withstand 135mph and large waves? Wondering. Also wondering if everyone was evacuated off the island, if so, how would they manage to get 65,000 people off before Emily hit.
| superfly |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 06:29 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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It looks like the eye is just making landfall on the Yucatan near Tulum now. It is amazingly sustaining its ridiculously cold cloud tops. I suspect that the sustained max winds in the NE quad were more in the 140-145MPH range rather than the 135MPH in the official advisory.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 06:39 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Quote:
It looks like the eye is just making landfall on the Yucatan near Tulum now. It is amazingly sustaining its ridiculously cold cloud tops. I suspect that the sustained max winds in the NE quad were more in the 140-145MPH range rather than the 135MPH in the official advisory.
You would think.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 06:43 AM |
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Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel
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Check out http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml
Reports from Cozumel.
Well, a few anyway. The authorities seem to have turned off the power themselves and had mandatory evacuations. They seem to have gotten everyone they could off the coastal areas... from what I've read online elsewhere.
'shana
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 06:44 AM |
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Check this out
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The Cancun radar, which seemed to have died, is up again and you can clearly see the eye half over land, half over water, with the SW eyewall at Tulum.
Looks like a particularly strong band went right over the one town in Cozumel.
(Click on the radar photo at the top of this topic).
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 06:59 AM |
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emily beyond the yucatan, 99L
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the fairy godmother got emily today, too. like dennis this storm isn't making landfall at peak intensity, though 135mph is nothing to relax about. storm should probably spin down to a 1/2 by late tomorrow when it slides off into the gulf... and deepen back to a 3 by mid tuesday. it may gain a little latitude as the shortwave slides by to the north on the continent.. models not showing a great deal of this.. then resume wnw course and probably hit extreme ne mexico a couple hours before sunrise on wednesday. may be edging cat 4 intensity by that time again. i don't buy quite the westerly bend nhc is advertising, but don't think it'll get up to texas either.
99L probably didn't survive the upper trough. the southern vortmax from earlier is popping some convection, oddly enough.. but it was the weak one that i didn't expect to survive. essentially no model support for future activity with this feature, but i've still got a shred of remaining concern that the part that made it through can regenerate. stranger things have happened, but this one is probably done.
weak model support for subsequent waves in the east atlantic to spin up. mild suggestion of an extratropical-origin fish spinner in the north atlantic also. after emily is done we may not see another july system, though right now i'd say that chances are slightly higher that something else will perk up before the month is out.
HF 0758z18july
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 07:13 AM |
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Re: emily beyond the yucatan, 99L
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Thanks for the update, Hank. And the good word of nothing waiting in the wings...so to speak.
Recon has departed Emily, as of 0637Z, and are on their way home. That was one, long, mission.
They flew their first fix at 2327Z yesterday. Over 6 hours of storm time and they aren't home yet.
I bet they can't stand the "Emily" word. Like the "Dennis" word.
Bunny Rabbit storms this year...they keep going and going.
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
EMILY MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF TULUM MEXICO NEAR 0630Z...230 AM
EDT THIS MORNING. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL WAS 135
MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL...WHERE THE WORST WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED...PASSED
DIRECTLY OVER COZUMEL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 07:18 AM |
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Re: emily beyond the yucatan, 99L
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Quote:
Thanks for the update, Hank. And the good word of nothing waiting in the wings...so to speak.
Recon has departed Emily, as of 0637Z, and are on their way home. That was one, long, mission.
They flew their first fix at 2327Z yesterday. Over 6 hours of storm time and they aren't home yet.
I bet they can't stand the "Emily" word. Like the "Dennis" word.
Bunny Rabbit storms this year...they keep going and going.
I saw on the scheule on NHC website that they were going to be doing that (flying in the storm for hours straight). But I guess NHC doesn't make all the recon data avail on its web site. How do you know all that info. Also if you had access to the data what did the winds in the NE quad look like over the six-hr period?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 18 2005 07:49 AM |
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Data
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Superfly saw the peak flight level wind around the same time I did.
6 hours of data is a Lot of data. They transmit anywhere from every 30 seconds to every 60 seconds. So that 's 60-120 lines of data per hour. Something like 7-12 columns per line so it's not something you can look at for very long.
Your eyes get tired and the numbers start running together.
The vortex message carries the summation of the data. With No exception that I can think of.
I imagine the folks at NHC and Hurricane Research Division have real time displays of what the data is representing.
It's just that watching the data on a display for 6 hours would be like watching TV or a movie for 6 hours straight.
I guess it's part of their job, and more interesting to them.