MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:50 AM |
Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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10:15PM Update 26.July
Two, perhaps three waves in the east Atlantic are worth watching, currently the middle one (referred to as 93L) is the most impressive looking, but any of the first two may form into another depression later into this week or the weekend.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Franklin continues to hold together this evening, moving nearly due east
after reforming its center. The current motion has forced the hurricane center to issue a tropical storm watch for Bermuda. The track still takes it away from the island, however, but the uncertainty with the system has been fairly high.
Gert made landfall as a Tropical Storm in Mexico, and is now raining more rain on an area already flooded by Emily.
Across the Atlantic, several tropical waves are making their way westward, including several over Africa now. Most will fall apart after leaving the coast, but a few may hold together and strengthen as it crosses the central atlantic ocean.
Nothing is expected to develop there for a few days at least.
The fact we are on the G storm name in July still amazes me.
Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.
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Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Tropical Storm Franklin
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin
Wave in East Atlantic (Aka 92L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L)
Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Wave in Even Further East Atlantic (Aka 93L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L)
Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:54 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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This is a repost from the last thread.
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 edited~danielw
FRANKLIN HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL CHANGE THIS EVENING. A NEW VORTICITY CENTER APPEARED FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT AND THE MAIN CENTER ARE ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER. THE CENTER TRACKED EARLIER IS CURRENTLY THE MOST INVOLVED WITH CONVECTION...SO THAT CENTER POSITION IS USED IN
THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM MAY REFORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OR THAT A MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BECOME MORE APPROPRIATE FOR TRACKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/260235.shtml
Edited by danielw (07/25/05 09:50 PM)
| jbmusic |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 03:06 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Here is a link to a few pictures I took tonight from Manatee Beach The Sand storm has definitly made its way this far north as is apparent by our sunset tonighthttp://www.pbase.com/b_bphotography/sand_storm_sunset
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 03:10 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Very nice. Thank you.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 04:14 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Give Franklin credit. He sure has kept us looking while doing, well, very little. He's stayed weak, covered very little ocean, and really bothered nobody. Now he's doing circles around himself . I think I worked with him once or twice. He can't even get a date in the North Atlantic, poor guy.
Wave just east of the islands must be related. It's puny little cloud tops are getting sheared, in part, by Franklin . No future for that kid either.
Wave between 30-40W has a shot. It's low is, well, low. But if that's good news for development, it's bad news in the long run, for if it does get wound up, it's going to be pretty far south, and the last last year or two these storms just won't go to the fish. It would also be close to, on top of, or past the islands, another not so good sign down the road for the rest of us. If I remember, the parade of storms ('95?) formed very early in the eastern Atlantic, and most curved out to the big pond. The longer these things wait, the harder it is to shake them off. The wave behind it at about 15W looks good, but everything just seems too close together in this area to make head and tails of it.
So other than Franklin, it seems it would be at least thursday before even an invest might be put out on something else. A couple of days. Isn't that what we said right after Emily got done with Mexico......
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 04:32 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
So other than Franklin, it seems it would be at least thursday before even an invest might be put out on something else. A couple of days. Isn't that what we said right after Emily got done with Mexico......
The latest GFS agrees with your summary.
In fact, it shows a 1012 mb Low near 10 N/ 41 W on Saturday at 06Z.
The main item in this area is the Low to the east of this.
Near 43 N/ 35 W. Depicted as a 1009mb Low with 2 closed isobars at the surface. 850mb Vorticity, Is picking this up, and I see a small reflection of the larger Low in the 500mb Vorticity product.
BTW- THis GFS round, dissipates Franklin well east of the DelMarVa Peninsula. Looks to be east of the "Benchmark", too.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 06:06 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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franklin appears to be recovering this evening. some of the globals forecasted shear to decrease and they appear to have scored. the mid layer ridge nearby franklin is fluid and will probably result in an erratic path... globals track has been bending left over time and may end up being west of north for a spell.. but it's unlikely franklin will get back to within striking distance of the u.s. coastline. as a parting action it may deepen some now that environmental conditions are improving.. not likely to do more than that.
the wave between 30-35w has me worried. very good signature on this wave, and a development trend seems to be underway. if it develops the scenario most of the globals have for it is a rebuilt ridge near the east coast with a weakness digging behind it over the east atlantic, and another weakness retrograding over the southeast. gfs shows its signature arriving at the southeast u.s. around august 2nd/3rd. the trailing wave near 20w develops on some global runs but turns up near 40w into the eastern weakness (a deep layer cutoff low on several models, the type which may become a hybrid feature in its own right). less significant is the weak wave/trough near 55w currently which is sporadically blowing convection. probably not a development threat as things currently stand.
with the progged weakness in the eastern u.s., wave energy in the nw caribbean will have the tendency to collect, though no model is suggesting more than shortwave induced impulses over land. numerous tropical waves are advancing across africa... the sort of configuration which promises at least a tropical cyclone or two in the deep tropics east of the islands over the next week or two.. and potentially more.
HF 0705z26july
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:55 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005
...CORRECTED TO DENOTE ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE IN TABLE... THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT HAD YESTERDAY BEEN EXPOSED HAS REMAINED INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE WHAT COULD OTHERWISE REFLECT INCREASED ORGANIZATION... FRANKLIN HAS NOT TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING. INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL STORM. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT... AS SUPPORTED BY 06Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REDEVELOP SOON IF THAT INTENSITY IS TO BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH LONGER. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY... AND FRANKLIN MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR AS LONG AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...LEAVING THE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK STEERING. THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAVE BOTH OCCURRED... PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/4. THIS SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST COMPARED TO EARLIER. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE INITIAL MOTION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. ON THIS TRACK FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 11:16 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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The wave emerging West Africa now is the one I am looking closely as it is at a low latitud and seems to have a spin to it.Safe to say that the CV season will very soon open it's gates.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:00 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I just checked the Navy site and they are showing 92L invest.
Does anyone have info on this?
Thanks,
Dotty
| NewWatcher |
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| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:11 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I think that is the wave around 40 in the atlantic
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:14 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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or I guess it is closer to 30 or 35
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:18 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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What is the navy web site?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:19 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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looks more like 12N 28W or thereabouts
| NewWatcher |
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| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:20 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:20 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
What is the navy web site?
Navy Site
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:21 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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yes i was just looking at that closer, seems a sort of circulation is about
12N 28W. was trying to match that up with clark's blog from early this a.m.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:28 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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What/who is Clark's blog? Still learning here..........
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:30 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Clark is one of the Mets here... On the top left of this page it says in the list....Met Blogs
click it and read the first one
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 01:54 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Getting ready for the shuttle, just thankful Franklin stayed away to allow the launch. Almost a half an hour to go.
Kind of hazy here today. Not the norm. Anyone in Polk seeing it other than me? Wondering if it has anything to do with that sand...didn't think we would get any affects but, it is just a strange haze when you look towards the sun's direction. To the west it is clear blue skies.
Looks like an awesome day for a launching.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:01 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I think we are seeing the effects of the sand, and pollution and we did not have a rain this past 24 hours.
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:06 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Is there a good website to follow the lift off??
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:08 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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www.cbsnews.com has a live stream now. I assume they will also show the lift off.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:13 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Invest 92L was at 8.5N 31W at 8AM. I think they put out this invest to make fun of me (see above post from last night: a couple of days!!). Numerical models make nothing out of it, run it into South America as nothing. It even looks like nothing. I swear that area is between two waves. Go figure.....
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:14 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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www.nasa.gov
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:18 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
I swear that area is between two waves. Go figure.....
I was thinking the same thing, which is why i couldnt tell exactly where it was according to the Navy.
and now they are saying 8.5 and 39...?? lol
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:35 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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25/0530 UTC 14.0N 28.3W TOO WEAK 92
granted, this was at 5:30 zulu time, but 14/28 seems reasonable; right now doesn't look like much, but we'll see what the TWO sez...
i'm a little more impressed by the wave trailing 92L just coming africa...it's awfully far south though:
East Atlantic WV Loop
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:43 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Not to talk a bout the launch but,.. never ever had a problem seeing it clearly in the past - couldn't see anything today except a cloud of dust. I am so disappointed. Even had my video camera with me. I should have just driven over there. Darn that cloud of dust.
back to Franklin.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:49 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Saw it ok from where I am along 436 in Casselberry. It did go behind a cloud where we lost it, but before that it was clear.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:51 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Just moved to Polk Co from far east Orange where we could always see it very clearly, so I was a little disappointed today. Neighbor said they can typically see it, so I guess it was just a little too cloudy today.
Maybe next time...
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I saw the space shuttle it was beautiful very nice view from orlando everything worked out
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 03:01 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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any photos anyone would like to share with me so i can put it in my daughters scrap book:) thanks becky
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 03:21 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Becky - I will PM you...
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 03:29 PM |
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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LI Phil, I'm with you on that one just coming off the coast behind 92L. It does look impressive.
By the way, couldn't see the shuttle on the West coast of FL either.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 03:51 PM |
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Models
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Weird, the FSU model is showing a cyclone developing north of the Leewards and making landfall in Cuba, then another forming right behind it, followed by yet another one from the wave that just came off the African coast.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 03:52 PM |
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Re: Models
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It is also showing something in the northern gulf that runs across florida, not sure what that is, but it shows up on the 850 vort
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 03:56 PM |
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Re: Models
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Lots of Waves - Model confusion. The Invest area is a huge wave that I believe will develop over the next few days as it heads toward a more favorable environment. These waves are fairly close together, so the models may be having some difficulty discerning their proximity and development. The tropics are going to kick into gear again.
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 04:06 PM |
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Re: Models
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So, when someone makes a statement using a phrase like "92L. Invest" what does each part of the statement mean? Thanks.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 04:13 PM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:
So, when someone makes a statement using a phrase like "92L. Invest" what does each part of the statement mean? Thanks.
92L Means Investigation 92 in the Atlantic. The numbers cycle between 90-99. Invest means investigation. Thats it.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 04:15 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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We might have to keep an eye on something next week here in florida computer models bring something intersting by the bahamas by the weekend and the starting of next week.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 04:16 PM |
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92L Runs
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| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 04:22 PM |
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Re: Models
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Very good. The number part had me stumped. Now, to dig a little further...
Is there any reason why they only use the numbers 90-99?
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 04:25 PM |
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Re: 92L Runs
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Phil, I believe that model run had the incorrect initialization
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 04:26 PM |
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Re: 92L Runs
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As is often true with open waves. Those models initialize it as a weak system. We will have to wait and see as the models initialize it better.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 05:28 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Tropical storm Franklin look like it heading more west than north east
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 05:31 PM |
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Re: 92L Runs
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Quote:
Phil, I believe that model run had the incorrect initialization
i believe you're correct...
GIGO...plain and simple
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 05:32 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Those tropical models are useless......Stay with the globel models. GFS,Ukmet,Nogaps and Canadian ( at times). The wave near 37W will develop more in the next couple days as it will move over warmer water. Expect it to reach the leeward islands in 3-4 days.
scottsvb
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 06:01 PM |
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NASA Analyzing Video Of Loose Shuttle Piece
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Sorry for off-topic post mods, i figured this was important, please move if needed.
NASA Analyzing Video Of Loose Shuttle Piece
| DaViking |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 06:32 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Sorry off topic.
Quote:
By the way, couldn't see the shuttle on the West coast of FL either.
I saw it quite easily up here in Crystal River. Being this far away i didn't see the shuttle its self, but clearly saw the trail and flame. It was really cool.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 06:54 PM |
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Re: NASA Analyzing Video Of Loose Shuttle Piece
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I love it when newscasters/press get so sensational.
It's not a loose piece from the shuttle - it's the same foam that shed last time and NASA expected shedding this time. The most important fact is that it did not hit the Shuttle itself.
Sorry for the off-topic reply, but I really dislike how media grabs a hold of a tiny, insignificant event and then dresses it up like it's the second coming...
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 07:08 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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It will be interesting to see what effect the Dust and Dry area has on TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W. There is about 800 miles of this dust area for the wave to travel thru.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 07:20 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Hey, Old Sailor!
Comment ca va?
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 07:22 PM |
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Wave
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Miami is hyping up a wave already, weird, what do they know that we don't?
DISCUSSION...BY THE WEEKEND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS OUT ABOUT 40W TODAY WILL BE COMING INTO THE PICTURE AND HELPING TO SWITCH THE FLOW TO EASTERLY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND BUT REGARDLESS OF ITS POSITION IT WILL AT LEAST SWITCH THE FLOW TO EASTERLY.
MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BY
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TROPICAL WAVE WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER WINDS.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 07:26 PM |
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Re: Wave
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I don't know how saying the flow will be switching easterly is hyping it up.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 07:43 PM |
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Re: Wave
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Usually 4-5 days plus in advance they just mention the possibility of a wave nearing the area and that is all. They don't usually mention the uncertainty of the strength of a wave that far in advance or that winds may be higher. I think it is because they are believing in the models possibly developing it more than just a wave.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 07:47 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Hi LL Phil:
As for any Comments just a gut feel here, that it will hidden the wave from developing soon, guess a wait and see as to how long it takes if it does to develop.Time will tell Phil.
Old Sailor
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 08:29 PM |
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Re: UH, Franklin heads W (wnw)
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Last few hours, plus blow up of convection, now calming down.
Note Bastardi fans: west mvt. I thought it was a loop at first....
MM
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 08:30 PM |
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Re: 92L
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92L I'm not sure but it looks like it is organizing anyone else think the same thing? Also will that wave coming off of african limit devlopment and devlop on it own or could they both devlop?
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 08:40 PM |
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Re: UH, Franklin heads W (wnw)
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Read 5 PM Tropical Discussion ........ Only 79 years old but have been to sea for 46 yrs, just an old sailor here.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 08:56 PM |
Re: Wave
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How is the wave at 40w going to be around Miami by this weekend???
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:00 PM |
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Re: Wave
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It's not, you must have misunderstood.....do not worry.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:04 PM |
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Looks like
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The models may be picking the wave up better now:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:11 PM |
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Re: Looks like
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The yellow plotline is one I do not want to see happen!
Those models keep changing though as more info is put in, correct?
'shana
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:15 PM |
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Re: Looks like
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Can you give me the link you are using for the models?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:16 PM |
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Re: Looks like
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I got it from above post...sorry!
| cruise182 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:17 PM |
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Re: Looks like
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Sorry, New here.....do the colors represent possible tracks?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:18 PM |
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Re: Looks like
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Quote:
Sorry, New here.....do the colors represent possible tracks?
They represent each model that sfwmd puts on their model maps.
| cruise182 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:18 PM |
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Re: Looks like
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Thanks!!
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:20 PM |
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Re: Wave
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The Miami discussion says the wave located around 40w will change are flow to the east this weekend. The wave is about 2800 miles away. So I don't know what the heck the NWS is talking about.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:30 PM |
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Re: Wave
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The Wave to really watch is the Wave by CV, this one shows the most promise and will not be effective by the dust cloud.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:50 PM |
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Re: Wave
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What is CV?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:51 PM |
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Re: Wave
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Cape Verde
the islands way out by africa
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 09:53 PM |
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Re: Wave
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Quote:
The Wave to really watch is the Wave by CV, this one shows the most promise and will not be effective by the dust cloud.
You mean the one directly behind 92L, right? Earlier, I thought that the one just coming off the coast looked strong. Now, the one behind 92L looks like it's organizing well.
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 10:09 PM |
| Attachment |
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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When do you think we will see 93L? Very impressive waves today.
Pic Link
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 10:10 PM |
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Re: Wave
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How can you tell if a wave is organizing well?
| AlexK |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 10:16 PM |
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Waves
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Both of the recently emerged waves off Africa are looking rather good right now, especially the one to the SW of the Cape Verde islands. I wouldnt be surprised to see an invest placed on it by tonight or tomorrow.
As For Franklin, hes still just sitting there, and again, convection is trying to get over the center. A feeble storm for sure, but a tenacious one
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 10:35 PM |
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Re: Waves
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Check out this model plot site I found, has a few extra models and you can pick your own overlays....
http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/maps...;savequery=true
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 11:13 PM |
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here comes the cv season
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we're going to see development in the coming days... the key to where it all goes lies in the subtropics. i'll break it down.
two things aside from franklin need to be watched north of 20n. one is to the west, the other to the east. bastardi pointed out the southwestern feature on his TWO this morning... residual vorticity and an upper air sort of catchment will be stuck near the bahamas for the next few days.. as well most of the models forecast the trough heading to break the heat wave in the east to split and show a 500mb weakness retrograding over the southeast. these will be the focal point for interest as the 500mb low and dying front may trigger low pressure on the northern gulf coast, as well as the weakness near the bahamas interacting with the weak piece of tropical wave near 20/58 that split northwest the other day.
east of there is the potential storm-catcher. aside from the wave with invest 92L on it near 43w, subsequent waves may be passing underneath what may be a deep layer or hybrid cyclone east of bermuda. globals show a variety of different features but agree on a disturbance closing off near 30/50 in the coming days... diving shortwaves east of the 500mb ridge building in the western atlantic interacting with the persistent mid-level disturbance that has been east of franklin for the last few days should combine to trigger a low or hybrid system here.. which may provide a weakness for storms in the deep tropics to come north. depending on how it forms it may transition into a tropical-type system or attempt to lift out.. or simply stay relatively put and pull anything from the cv region poleward.
as for waves.. 92L looking about like yesterday. vortmax on the north part of the wave axis with little convection near 17n, weak low near 9n shifted south on the axis.. itcz embedded.. shouldn't do much until it gets a bit further west. globals propagate this feature wnw past the northern islands july 29-30... and into the bahamas around august 1-2. this one is a threat to the u.s. if it develops, in about a week's time.
wave behind 92L has more impressive convection... may develop further east. currently near 33w. the weakness in the central atlantic may draw this one up or at least tug it poleward.
new wave just coming off near 17w. another weeks worth behind it, probably more behind that.
trough splits and retrograding upper air features this year have triggered several of the systems we've tracked. the version of that going on near the east coast this week/weekend should make for an interesting scenario if a storm gets into the mix.
HF 0013z27july
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 11:23 PM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Hank, I sure hope you are referring to Curriculum Vitae and not Cape Verde.
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 11:52 PM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Spaghetti plot of 92L
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 26 2005 11:55 PM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Atlantic waves
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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per the Navy site, we now have 93L
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:18 AM |
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Invest. 93L is here
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I was checking out the NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone Page and I found Invest 93L. You can find this at the follwing link http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...DISPLAY=Animate
Comments?
Look impressive to me.
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:25 AM |
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Re: Invest. 93L is here
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Yeah, current bid is 3. Do I hear 4?
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:28 AM |
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Re: Invest. 93L is here
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Yikes 92 and 93 invest... not to mention the conga line still on Africa. Looks like stuff's about to really hit the fan.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: Invest. 93L is here
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Interesting set of maps
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_bw.gif
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:31 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Invest. 93L is here
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That's tomorrow... lol
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:31 AM |
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Re: Franklin
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Franklin should be a little stronger at 11PM about 45MPH or maybe 50MPH, looks to be N or NNW. Once it started to move again. Track seems to be on target.
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:32 AM |
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Re: Invest. 93L is here
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It's not just Miami talking about influence from the tropics. Here's Melbourne's discussion.
OF NOTE IS THAT MOST OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME
SORT OF DISTURBANCE WNW FROM THE TROPICS TWD CUBA/BAHAMAS BY DAYS
6-7. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THE LOCATION/INTENSITY OF SUCH A FEATURE
IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERROR. NEVERTHELESS IT MAY WIND UP BEING
SOMETHING TO KEEP TABS ON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:37 AM |
| Attachment |
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Here is the latest SCATT of invest 93L as an attachment.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:41 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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I'm pretty much in line with what HF posted a little while ago, but wanted to add a couple of things....
* The feature east of Bermuda projected to develop appears to have support in the models for some sort of hybrid structure, at least early on, maybe trending a little more towards a tropical nature well down the line. Model depictions of a tropical cyclone not withstanding, it's one to watch in about 4 days. Most likely scenario has it just spinning around as a hybrid cyclone, keeping a weakness in the subtropical ridge that anything developed might - or might not - catch.
* Out into the east Atlantic, I still think that the wave that is now 93L -- the wave between 20-25W from my outlook early this morning -- is the better candidate for development over the next couple of days. The NHC and NRL are just starting to track it, with the former noting a strong mid-level feature but not much of a surface one yet; then again, that's how a lot of these things get started. If the current organization holds overnight and into tomorrow, I figure we'll have a TD out of it by sometime Thursday.
* 92L is just starting to perk up again (the further west wave from this morning's outlook), but I feel it's too broad and too tied up in dry air for any rapid development. Figure this one will have a shot in the 3-4 day time frame, likely as a storm that doesn't catch the weakness in the ridge and has the greater shot to impact land...if it does develop.
* Wave behind 93L just coming off of the coast has a shot like 93L does -- but it needs to stick around the coast for a little while or it might get impacted by the development of 93L. Nevertheless, count on this one likely becoming 94L in a day or two, with the potential for development in the 3-4 day time frame as well. No telling what it might or might not do from there.
It's going to be an active start to August, I'm afraid, and we may well end up with 8 named systems in the basin before 2004 even saw 1. Once Alex came along, however, things really got kicking...might see something like that again this year (activity-wise, not track-wise for now). I think the talk of blowing past our seasonal record is overblown, but we could get close to 20.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:55 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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20? Thats incredible. I saw that the SHIPS model brings 92L to minimum hurricane strength in 5 days. Is that true?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 01:06 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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You realize that 5 days is the 31st of July, and that 93L looks better organized and currently strongerthan 92L - I wonder if we will have 9 named storms for just the month of July.
That is of course assuming that not the wave over the Carribean and none of the new ones coming off Africa form Tropical Storms by then and we have even more...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Well, only time will tell on that one! It might, it might not...would trend not unless it gets organized in the next two days, but it has a shot. 93L has the better shot, IMO.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 01:17 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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I'm better off keeping my mouth shut I mention the wave at this afternoon and now it's 93L. Oh well.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 01:23 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Clark,Do you see anything that could slow this crazy hurricane season down in August or September?This is getting a little scary if you live on the coast.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 01:25 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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If I read the Tropical Weather Discussion at 8:05 right, 92L is heading into an environment more conducive to moisture and convective development. I guess we will have to wait and see on that one.
BTW, I need a break from this season already. Updating my site is sometimes an annoying pain in the you know what. Well, besides that, I want a break from updating it almost all the time. But, the people must have their information.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 01:29 AM |
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Oops
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The 1012 mb Low depicted in the NCEP maps, over the Andros Island area, should be part of a TUTT Low that HPC included in yesterday's? Discussion.
I'll see if I can find that link.
It wasn't progged to do much more than change the moisture levels and precipitable water levels.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 edited~danielw
...A TUTT EXTENDING FROM A LOW ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA SOUTHWEST TO NICARAGUA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TUTT LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 21N 72W BY 24 HRS...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N 76W BY 48 HRS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 72 HRS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Quote:
BTW, I need a break from this season already.
i knoww right..and i havent even been in one and imm sick of it
gosh, the fact that the next storm will be Harvey scares me....H already!?!?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Quote:
i know right..and i havent even been in one and im sick of it.
gosh, the fact that the next storm will be Harvey scares me....H already!?!?
On that note...I walked back into the room and TWC was showing the "Next List". Alpha, Beta...
That's the list they use After the current list of 24 names is exhausted.
Hope to never See an ALPHA. Except in the Archives of Old Storms.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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And I thought they would go to double letter names
Like Aardvark, BB Gun, etc
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Count me in on that count, Daniel.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 02:42 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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ftlaudbob -- only time will tell. Water temperatures should remain above-average across the basin through the season; what will play a determining role are dry air/dust outbreaks and upper-level winds. I don't see the latter having a large impact, so we'll likely just see activity come and go in spurts for the rest of the season. We average about 7 named storms after August 1st; that'd take us to 14 on the season...don't see any reason why we shouldn't at least get to that point.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 02:54 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Just a curiosity:
I know that dust from the Sahara helps dampen storm development. Does volcanic dust also cause the same effect?
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 03:40 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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The list only contains 21 names(no Q,U,X,Y,orZ) and the way this year is going it is a good chance we will see Alpha.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 03:44 AM |
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List
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Thanks Lisa, I was trying to remember of the top of my head.
I should have looked it up.
Anything past ' H ' is too much this year!
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 03:46 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Could someone please take a look at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html near 70W, 23N and tell me what the dark round area could mean??? It currently seems to moving slowly northwards. Water vapor appears to be feeding into it or perhaps even streaking into it from virtually every direction. It also seems to getting smaller. Thanks!!!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 03:52 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Quote:
Just a curiosity:
I know that dust from the Sahara helps dampen storm development. Does volcanic dust also cause the same effect?
I would think so. This is more of a Met question.
Typically, volcanic ash has a finer particle size than sand does.
I would think that ash would be a bit more abrasive, and slightly corrosive. If the ash is damp or wet.
Hence the Flight Precautions to aircraft after an Ash Cloud release.
Terra, and the Mets would have a better answer.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 03:55 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Quote:
Could someone please take a look at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html near 70W, 23N and tell me what the dark round area could mean??? It currently seems to moving slowly northwards. Water vapor appears to be feeding into it or perhaps even streaking into it from virtually every direction. It also seems to getting smaller. Thanks!!!
I believe that's the TUTT Low that HPC was referring to.
A few posts back, I posted part of the HPC Discussion from earlier today. That's the area they were talking about.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:02 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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that black thing u see it looks like dry air
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:07 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Thank you! I'm quite new to this.
Would it be typical then for such a low east of the Bahamas to "draw streams of moisture into itself" (seemingly against prevailing winds) all the way from the coast of Belize?
Again thanks!!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:09 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
that black thing u see it looks like dry air
I believe that's the TUTT Low that HPC was referring to.
A few posts back, I posted part of the HPC Discussion from earlier today. That's the area they were talking about.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:12 AM |
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Re: here comes the cv season
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Also that dry spot appears to be sucking up rather a lot of what what that silly Franklin has recently been throwing away to the east.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:56 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Fascinating stuff! I've been watching quite a bit of water vapor 'disappearing' into an oblong counter-clockwise-looking spiraled-area (centered pretty much over and/or north of Hispaniola) for a few days now, although it hasn't seemed to look so much like a 'black hole' until sometime today. If this TUTT feature works to keep storms from intensifying that's certainly neat, as long as it doesn't develop a mind of its own I suppose. And thanks very much!
You are Welcome. Hope it helped.~danielw
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:42 AM |
| Attachment |
Forcast Model's on 93L?
|
Does anyone have any forcast models on 93L yet. I know it just missed the last model. but, if anyone does happen to have one let me know..... thanks... I attached the lates IR of 93L. I have a feeling about this one.....
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 07:09 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Hmmm… now I have a different concern. While it's comforting to know that this TUTT is unlikely to become the mother of all hurricanes (in as much as that's precisely the sort of thing it's working against) could it ever become the mother of all garden hoses?
It looks to me as if a portion of the 'missing moisture' is occasionally watering the Everglades. And thus Franklin might not actually have to turn around to cause problems for interests in Florida and elsewhere. He might merely need to prime the pump - for a fire hose, so to speak - through which a significant portion of the various 'big waves' end up getting sprayed (here and there, so to speak).
I mean, whatever moisture Franklin didn't end up getting would still seemingly have to go somewhere, and seemingly rather quickly, if this TUTT feature keeps siphoning off seemingly so much of the stuff from so many different places. Sorry if I seem like an alarmist but this is still new to me. Plus I'd hopefully always care about another community's major issues.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 09:42 AM |
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NHC 2 AM Discussion
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 edited~danielw
...TROPICAL WAVES...
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS...UPPER-AIR TIMESECTIONS FROM DAKAR AND SAL...AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS SW OF THE CAPE VERDES IS A REFLECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SMALLER IN AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE ONE SOON TO EMERGE OFF WEST AFRICA. MOST OF THE SIGNAL OF THE WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITH ONLY A SMALL SURFACE REFLECTION NOTED...
THOUGH THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY WAVE RECENTLY HAS BEEN A CANDIDATE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR MORE REMINISCENT OF THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST RATHER THAN LATE IN JULY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG 20N41W TO 14N44W TO 1014 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 11N45W TO 7N46W MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LARGER WAVE CIRCULATION BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT AS TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASES. MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY WITH A PRECEDING "TAIL" OF MOISTURE ENTERING TOMORROW.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/270633.shtml?
| TAZMAN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 11:09 AM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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What’s the longest a storm has maintained "storm" status..... Franklin is going on a week now..…
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 11:23 AM |
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Westward movement?
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Sure looks like the percieved Center of Franklin is about to cross 70W
Should be interesting if it continues.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 11:29 AM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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I think quite a bit more than that. Most storms that form in them mid-atlantic take about a week before landfall, and some of them have stalled and sat spinning for a while. An example of a fairly long storm last year was Jeanne which developed on the 14th and didn't dissapte until the 28th - 14 days. An even better example is Kyle from 2002 which developed on the 21st and didn't dissapate until the 12th, or 21 days later. Franklin isn't anywhere near any of these in length.
I don't exactly want to spend the day studying old storm tracks to grab their dates - if anyone knows of what the record is please post
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 11:33 AM |
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Re: Waves in the Atlantic
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I'm looking at the SAL product and it looks like the dust is fast breaking apart in the mid-Atlantic. This could allow that first wave to develop a lot more, and is unlikely to inhibit the new(er) waves off Africa
| TAZMAN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 11:36 AM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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That works for me !.... I was just curious... Thanks
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 11:40 AM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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Good Morning. Although the coordinates say north on Franklin, the wv loop looks like he is moving due west the skew and all that jazz. I do have a question of those in the know. Is the Channel 4 satellite broken? It is my favorite for a quick look. The pix are stuck on July 24. I have looked for a status report and can not find one.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 11:49 AM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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Quote:
What’s the longest a storm has maintained "storm" status..... Franklin is going on a week now..…
Ganked from http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/2002end.htm:
Kyle lasted for 23 days.
Kyle was the third longest storm since 1871 behind Ginger in 1971 which lasted 31 days and Igna in 1969 which lasted 25 days. Carrie in 1957 lasted 23 days as well. Since 1871 there have been eight storms which lasted 20 days more.
That was as of 2002. Not sure if anything has been longer since.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:12 PM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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Nothing longer (in the Atlantic at least) since 2002. I checked the NHC charts for 2002, 2003, and 2004 - and Kyle was by far the longest.
Here's Ginger: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1971/ginger/prelim06.gif
(hard to read)
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 12:56 PM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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Is Frankin finally beginning to split as mentioned in some earlier posts by HankFrank? Looking at the visual sat, the center looks to be around 36N; however, the main convection is to south, closer to the NHC's center at 33N. What is going on? It looks to me like the main area of convection is beginning to move back to the west and pull away from the remainder of the storm to the north. Are my observations correct?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 01:04 PM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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well, the official had it 'splitting' too. it'll probably fire up new convection near the center later on. some of what it's leaving may get entrained into the weakness/collection point near the bahamas over the next couple of days.. along with the weak disturbance near 20/60 moving wnw. gfs/nam have a discontinuous-looking feature moving up the east coast around the weekend out of this thing. the 92L disturbance has two main vorticity lobes to it... the one to the south or the one to the north can develop... it's starting to look like the northern piece will. 93L behind it is undergoing some easterly shear from the ridging building to the north, but should continue to slowly organize. the waves are spaced by about 12/13 degrees.. enough so that they shouldn't intermingle. new wave coming off looks ok too and 06z gfs develops it also. still a lot of variety on the projected deep layer low in the east central atlantic... some showing it in a sharp trough that may preclude tropical nature. others show it developing like a cutoff hybrid low. there's another disturbance showing in various model runs along the north central gulf coast that's probably just related to the 500mb weakness that is supposed to back up there over the weekend. eyeball there, too. whole mess of things that can go active later this week/weekend.
HF 1404z27july
| TAZMAN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 01:30 PM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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Quote:
there's another disturbance showing in various model runs along the north central gulf coast that's probably just related to the 500mb weakness that is supposed to back up there over the weekend. eyeball there, too. whole mess of things that can go active later this week/weekend.
HF 1404z27july
TWC discussed this late last night and said it was mid level and nothing to be concerned about....... personaly I will watch them all
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 02:44 PM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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Over 30 days....
MM
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 02:51 PM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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Hey Colleen - where are ya???
I feel as though I have been hit over the head with a 2X4. My sinuses are giving me a fit. I feel like my head is going to explode. something blooming that I am not aware of?
Hot here and how come it feels hotter than what they say it is?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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The African dust should not inhibit the waves from developing. I am wondering if there has been any additional prediction updates based on the new British model. Also, Dr. Gray should update his forecast around August 1st. The newspaper reported up to 22 named storms this year. Wow.
| Liz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 03:42 PM |
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Re: What is it?
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Was just looking at the sats. Noticed a small formation of clouds just off the GA/SC coast, around 32N,78W. Anyone else see this?
Liz
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:04 PM |
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Re: What is it?
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Nothing to worry about there; it's likely just normal daytime convection firing over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream.
92L is pretty reminiscient of the wave that came before it, except with a bit more convection on its periphery. It's very broad and still in with a bit of dry air, so it's going to take some time to get going. 93L is still there, though it lost some convection earlier today. If that pops back, we'll restart the counter. That one has to maintain convection or, given it's weaker surface signature, will likely fade away. Still, I think it's the better bet of the two.
| nowhammies |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:04 PM |
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Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion
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Hey I have trick sinuses too! Mine have not been bothering me too much today - but with bein' pregnant and all - my system is really out of whack - ao I am not sure if my weather predicting nostrils are in tune
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:06 PM |
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Re: What is it?
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Not to be snobby, but isn't it a bit alarmist to be thinking every single thing of cloud formations this year is going to be a Tropical System?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:08 PM |
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Re: What is it?
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Joe B. is getting excited about this in his Wed. video.Does not look like much to me.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:18 PM |
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Re: What is it?
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Quote:
Joe B. is getting excited about this in his Wed. video.Does not look like much to me.
That's what I thought too, but the way the season is going you never know. It seems like I could forget to check a TWO or TWD, and the next thing I know there are 1 or 2 named storms churning. Craziness.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:34 PM |
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Watching..Waiting
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i have a feeling that one of the three waves wil develope by the close of the weekend
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:52 PM |
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Re: Watching..Waiting
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Quote:I think that is a good bet.But today I don't have to worry about any storms,and that is a good thing.Local tv here is saying the first wave should affect us here Sun or Mon,it what form?,That is the question.Anyone have any ideas about development on the first wave?
i have a feeling that one of the three waves wil develope by the close of the weekend
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:57 PM |
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Re: Watching..Waiting
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i think the first may develope but as of right now, the second wave looks more favorable for developement...any other thoughts anyone?
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:58 PM |
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Re: What is it?
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Quote:
Not to be snobby, but isn't it a bit alarmist to be thinking every single thing of cloud formations this year is going to be a Tropical System?
Isn't it better to be expecting and ready than assume it's nothing? Besides, this is a site for weather hobbyists, who enjoy weather. This is the season to enjoy it so that's what's being done. *shrug*
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 04:58 PM |
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Re: Watching..Waiting
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Quote:Quote:I think that is a good bet.But today I don't have to worry about any storms,and that is a good thing.Local tv here is saying the first wave should affect us here Sun or Mon,it what form?,That is the question.Anyone have any ideas about development on the first wave?
i have a feeling that one of the three waves wil develope by the close of the weekend
As Clark mentioned, the development of the first wave will likely be a slow process. The circulation associated with wave 1 (92L) is huge. I have noticed that there have been some popcorn showers developing around that broad circulation. Yesterday, there wasn't much of anything in that area. Perhaps we'll begin to see some modest development of 92L. I think that this wave may actually be a better candidate for development than the second wave.
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 05:01 PM |
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Re: Watching..Waiting
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all aboard choo choo! for JB's african wave train .. lol guy cracks me up
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 05:37 PM |
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Re: Watching..Waiting
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Joe B i have been watching for years. I watch him cause hes a Met.. and loves the weather. He picks out anything that the models show might pick up on and any thunderstorm areas so he cant be wrong if 1 does develop. Hes usually off by where storms make landfall cause he uses his landfall points to hope a storm goes there so he will be right. Im 1 who doesnt believe in the tele-connect. Thing is ridges might be the same in the teleconnect but there are diff sizes and shapes of ridges. Last example was with Franklin, Joe B tried to show why he thought Franklin was going west compared to the Typhoon in the Pacific. Thing again was the ridges were diff. Also he looked at the wrong system in the Pacific. He is generally right about 1/3 of the time of landfall within 100 miles of 3 days out.
I do watch him cause again I love the excitement he puts into the weather forecasting. I like some of his other ideas also. I would say its worth watching him also for entertainment in what he does. Overall I would say Joe B is a good guy and good tropical forecaster. I just differ on the teleconnection thoughts and he tries to get his systems to hit his charted areas for the season.
92L still should be a system to watch as it moves towards Puerto Rico by Saturday. I say Thurs thunderstorms will consolidate more and a plane might check it out on Friday if that happens. After moving into the SE bahamas by Sunday-Monday it will slow down. Too far in the future after that cause a trough will swing off the east coast and it might just meander there for a couple days.
scottsvb
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 05:40 PM |
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Joe B
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Anybody else have Joe B's broadcast drop off in the middle? I get to the section where he asks about east coast storm history, then it stops....
Michael
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 05:41 PM |
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Re: Watching..Waiting
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can i get that jb link please?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 05:42 PM |
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Re: Watching..Waiting
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Its on the front page here at the bottom,, just click on it.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 05:46 PM |
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Re: Joe B
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yeah, I had the same problem, watched it twice just to make sure.
He's grown on me a bit. I hated him the first time I saw him. However, he is a bright guy and fun to watch. As Scott said, I don't always agree with his ideas, but I do take them into consideration.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:01 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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92L invest has 1011 mb pressure with 20knot winds it getting there to become our next tropical deppression it
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:02 PM |
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Re: Joe B
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>>Anybody else have Joe B's broadcast drop off in the middle? I get to the section where he asks about east coast storm history, then it stops....
I had the same problem yesterday. Today, I clicked on Yahoo's link and switched my connection speed to low broad-band and got the whole thing. He basically just talks about 99, 95 and 54 and says that's where the linkups are with the remainder of the '05 season although the Gulf is hardly closed. He upped his landfall intensity totals beyond last year's actuals and +/- tripled his insurance damage to $12-18B.
The better video today was the tropical update. He's focusing on the ECMWF with 92L and believes it will be a Gulf storm. However, he also cautioned for two homebrew developments first, one in the NW Gulf (behind the front in E TX) and another off the mid-Atlantic between Franklin and the coast. What I could get was that TX was suspect as was NC/VA from those two systems.
As for 92L, ridging should be in place to carry it pretty far west. The question to me is (assuming development) whether it gets hung up in the Islands, hits Florida, or stays in the water and comes under the ridge into the Gulf. If it's the latter, it's probably another MS/AL/NWFL system unless ridging builds in to the north in which case it would be westbound.
The recap is to watch for the two homespun systems this weekend and look for 92L in the middle-of-next-week timeframe.
Steve
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:14 PM |
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Re: Joe B
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Thanks for the update. Like many of the others have said, I don't always agree with him, but he can provide some entertainment at times and you can occassionally grasp the opportunity to learn something.
Thanks again,
Michael
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:19 PM |
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Re: Joe B
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I had been thinking of mentioing the front in E Texas(and northward). Looks pretty impressive for a land-lubber's storm! I know we usually talk about trops. in here...
Did the duststorm ever make it to FLA?? Did not think satellite imagery showed its arrival personally and also read a post that the conditions we have seen here is from haze and stagnant conditions. Will the dusting have any effect on these new waves??? Annnnnnnnd........possible wave forming in the last few frames just SSE of Franklin? Have heard that waves sometims form at the tail end of a coldfront i.e. Bonnie....I guess I should rephrase that thought......Is the small area of convection just forming N of Antilles and ahead of 92L and SSE of Franklin in a position that is good for development??
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:35 PM |
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Franklin, the little storm thatwould not die
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I'm sure it's going to turn to the north at some point, but I'd hate to see the 3 day and 5 day errors for this storm. Talk about killing your accuracy for the NHC!
Ah well, maybe Franklin will stick around long enough for the next storm to form so we have 29 days of storms in July (I dont think that's ever happened before...) The only good news I can think of, I can't visualize how the atlantic basic could get that much *more* active than it was in July, I mean, sure you could see a little more activity, but more than 7 - 8 storms in August would be utter madness... We'd never sleep again... heh
-Mark
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:41 PM |
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Re: Joe B
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Well it made it to Florida but just made skys kinda hazzy, Duststorms dont inhibit tropical development, but duststorms are usually with dry air blowing off the dry areas of the saharra desert and move E-W with the prevailling flow. This happens generally as the N Africian trade winds move further north into the desert regions.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:50 PM |
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Re: Joe B
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Didn't really make it here, either. The northern extent was blocked by Franklin and the upper-low over the Atlantic, while the southern extent has become a little diffuse and is currently affecting Cuba and the Yucutan. You can see it clearly here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html
The hazy conditions across Florida & the SE US have been caused by stagnant air in association with the large ridge of high pressure at upper-levels. When the air doesn't move and there is strong sinking motion at upper levels, you tend to see conditions such as this -- though it is more common in the western US than here. With no rain to help clean things out, it just sticks in the air, especially given the abundant low-level moisture still in place. It too can help create some nice sunsets, as we've seen lately. These conditions should clear out in the next couple of days with the movement of the ridge and approach of the front from the NW.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:56 PM |
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Re: 92 L
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Interesting Discussion on 92L from NWS Melbourne this afternoon.
LOOKING ONCE MORE
INTO THE TROPICS...W/R/T THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE E/SE
...THE 12Z GFS SLOWS IT TO A CRAWL AS IT PASSES THE TURKS/CAICOS BY
00Z MON (SUN EVENING)...DRIFTS IT W/NW INTO CTRL BAHAMAS A FULL H48
LATER...THEN SHOWS A STALL/TREND TWD RECURVATURE WED. LAST NIGHTS
00Z ECM DROVE THE FEATURE WWD THROUGH THE FL STRAITS AND INTO THE
GOMEX...OWING TO ITS AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS NORTH
OF FL AS COMPARED TO THE GFS.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 06:59 PM |
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Re: Joe B
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I'll have to respectfully disagree with JB here. While the front is a rather strong one for this time of year, the southern end is rather diffuse and, given how the air mass is modifying on the southern side of the front, I just can't see anything coming of it. We can see storms form at the tail end of a front, but that's more of a September-November affair than a July/August one...just don't think it'll be strong enough to do it.
There's a weak trough tailing from Franklin, but anything in there is going to get caught up in the same flow Franklin will get caught up in and head out to sea. Alex formed offshore similar to that last year -- almost at this very time -- and while I'll go that far as well as say it's a more likely bet than the Gulf scenario, I'm still not too keen on it. The broad area of low-pressure projected across the SE US may help, but I don't see the energy being in the right place for anything to get going.
92L will be one to more impact the US than perhaps 93L -- at least sooner than 93L would -- but I think it's got a longer time ahead of it before it can get going. Like HF mentioned overnight, it's probably the north end that will get its act together, and even then the overall envelope is rather large. It might well get going, but it's a long-term affair.
93L on the other hand has, despite having its convective tops warm overnight, maintained a nice mid-level circulation, one that has some hints of working its way down to the surface in QuikSCAT imagery. While it might have more of a penchant to be a fish spinner than 92L, it's also (in my eyes) a more likely candidate to develop in the short-term. If the convective tops cool later today and the organization is maintained, I still believe we might see something classified by the end of the day tomorrow...or at least sometime Friday. Only time will tell, however...and that goes for all of them.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 07:12 PM |
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Re: Joe B
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Clark, I agree with your assessment...92L probably will take a long time to become a named system..the latest GFDL doesn't bring it to TS status until it reaches the eastern bahamas...it's also a strange looking swirl of clouds..a big cyclonic sweep streching over 10 deg LAT..almost TUTT like now
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 07:40 PM |
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Re: Joe B
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Well, I wouldn't call it TUTT-like -- TUT cells are not that large and in the mid-upper levels. This wave is a predominantly low-level feature with a very large circulation envelope...it's got the pieces there, it just needs to put them together somehow. We'll have to see if it does -- or when it does.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 08:22 PM |
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Re: 92L
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27/1800 UTC 11.9N 32.5W TOO WEAK 92
27/1200 UTC 11.9N 31.8W TOO WEAK 92
27/1145 UTC 33.1N 69.1W T2.5/2.5 FRANKLIN
27/0530 UTC 12.5N 29.8W TOO WEAK 92
Can That really be 92L I thought it was west more that more closer to 93L check it out yourself at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 08:43 PM |
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Re: 92L
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HPC Discussion from this afternoon - ERN US snippet:
BY DAY 7...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
EARLY SEPTEMBER OVER THE INTERIOR AS FRESH SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM CANADA. THE MID ATL AND SOUTHEAST WILL BE WET...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL FOCUSING JUST N OF POLAR FRONT DAYS 3 AND 4 FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. AIRMASS CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED S OF FRONT...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN OVER THE FL
PENINSULA BY DAY 7 AS TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 08:59 PM |
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Re: GERT
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Yes, GERT,,,her remnants are still intact and have reached The Gulf of Baja California....
MM
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 09:02 PM |
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Re: 92L
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Atlantic Tropical Waves
92L Spaghetti plot
93L Spaghetti plot
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 09:27 PM |
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Re: GERT
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Not exactly. Looking at 3-day satellite loops over the region, Gert's remnants dissipated over central Mexico, with the energy getting caught up in the trough passing across the central/eastenr US over a day ago. Any remnant of Gert that would be in the Pacific now would've come across a day or more ago.
What you see now in the Gulf of California is the remnants of a mesoscale convective complex that formed along the Mexican west coast last night. There was one the day before that, and the day before that as well; in fact, they are quite common this time of year and can occasionally spin-up mid-level vortices (as last night's might've done). No Gert remnants around, though.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 27 2005 10:31 PM |
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Re: GERT
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According to Accuweather, because the Atlantic is so much warmer than usual, they are predicting that during the rest of the hurricane season, more tropical development will hit the east coast of Florida and the U.S rather than venture through the Gulf. What do you mets think?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 12:34 AM |
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Re: GERT
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im no met. but i agree..
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 12:40 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:
Atlantic Tropical Waves
92L Spaghetti plot
93L Spaghetti plot
those are really good maps..thanks AndyG..i agree with those
i think 92L could develope into a minimal hurricane go rightt above the upper antilles andmake a path thru or a litle bit above the Bahamas.. and make a florida Georgie landfall.
As for 93L, i think it could develope but head a little further northward
but this is early for predictions..may as well throw one on the table
and i feel its safe to say this season a tropical system will hit:
-south eastern florida
-the bahamas
-carolinas
-northeast(South NJ-MASS)
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 12:45 AM |
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Re: 92L
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It appears according to the Bastardi video that The Carolina region is at the top of the high risk list for the rest of the season. I wonder if that article that came out earlier in the year really meant"The Case Against Florida" actually having a landfalling major hurricane this year. That does not mean that hurricanes won't get close enough to disturb the weather, just not close enough to the peninsula to aggravate Central Florida.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 12:47 AM |
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Re: 92L
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yea, i kinda feel bad for florida..well, i can't control the weather, i mean if you guys can wave your wands n send em away up here im sure well be happy to take a bullet..but nothing bad only cat 1 or 2
jk
.Ryan
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 12:49 AM |
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Re: 92L
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I can certainly say that whoever wrote "The Case Agaainst Florida" having a landfalling major hurricane this year....was 100% wrong.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 12:57 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:
It appears according to the Bastardi video that The Carolina region is at the top of the high risk list for the rest of the season. I wonder if that article that came out earlier in the year really meant"The Case Against Florida" actually having a landfalling major hurricane this year. That does not mean that hurricanes won't get close enough to disturb the weather, just not close enough to the peninsula to aggravate Central Florida.
Well guess since JB couldn't get a direct hit on New Orleans guess he would try his luck somewhere else hummmmm like up the East coast?
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:06 AM |
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Re: GERT
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Quote:
According to Accuweather, because the Atlantic is so much warmer than usual, they are predicting that during the rest of the hurricane season, more tropical development will hit the east coast of Florida and the U.S rather than venture through the Gulf. What do you mets think?
I'm not a MET but a scientist nonetheless..The Atlantic Ocean is not only warmer this year but has been warmer, relatively speaking since 1995. We are currently in the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which should last another 10 to 40 years. The North Atlantic ocean periodically alternates between warm and cool phases every two to five decades. The last cool phase lasted from 1970-1995 and there was a general lull in Atlantic Tropical Activity. So over the long term, the entire east coast and FL peninsula will see alot more tropical cyclone activity over the next 20 years or so.
As far as this year, not only are seas surface temps high, but very favorable atmospheric conditions also exist (i.e. low shear environment, lower pressure in the Carribean, no drought in the Sahel region of W Africa, etc.). The Cape Verde season, which usually starts in mid-August, will start earlier this year (now?) and will be quite active with numerous waves rolling off the coast of Africa. So in that respect, I'd tend to agree with Accuweather that the US east coast and FL is more vulnerable than the Gulf Coast. What will be the major player in this years landfalls will be the relative strength and position of the Bermuda High. Last year, this Ridge held strong and was positioned slightly north of the peninsula. This caused Frances and Jeanne to move W-NW into the east coast of FL rather than head north into the Carolinas or NE out to sea. Prior to last year, even though we had one of the most active periods in Atlantic Cyclone History (1995-2003), many of the storms ended up fish spinners because the Bermuda Ridge was not strong and large Troughs of Low Pressure anchored themselves along the east coast & deflected them out to sea.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:14 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:
yea, i kinda feel bad for florida..well, i can't control the weather, i mean if you guys can wave your wands n send em away up here im sure well be happy to take a bullet..but nothing bad only cat 1 or 2
jk
.Ryan
um...
nothin' personal but i'd rather not take a cat II bullet, but yer point is at the very least well taken...there are already too many "signs" pointing towards a NE (northeast, not New England) strike we don't need any jinxing our luck thus far...
we REALLY dodged bullets with bob, floyd and isabel; we may not be so lucky next time...lemme tell you, twas NO FUN after Gloria and that wasn't really much of a cane, specially compared to what Florida and the GOM took last year.
| 911 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:20 AM |
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Re: 92L
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My Family is heading to Ft Lauderdale are this weekend for 7 days. Are any of these a concern?
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:22 AM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Perhaps have a look at what seems related to the Atlantic TUTT. Water Vapor appears to be 'jetting out' near 72W, 27N. If so then perhaps at what speed would it appear to be moving?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
(Jul 28 05, 13:15-00:15 UTC)
Also information on the TUTT itself can be found at
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/
(And thanks again, danielw, for responding)
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:23 AM |
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Re: 92L
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I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:28 AM |
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storm surge?
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Question.I live 1.5 miles from Ft Laud beach.How high would the storm surge have to be to flood my first floor,taking into account the inter coastal.Just trying to figure out what cat storm ,would force me to leave my home.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:31 AM |
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Re: 92L
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What's your elevation above Mean Sea Level? That will give you a good indication. My guess is a strong cat 2, definitely cat 3. I live in mid-Pinellas county with a floor elevation of 19ft 3in above MSL and my evacuation zone corresponds to a cat 4 storm.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:37 AM |
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storm surge?
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Not sure about exact level,But I know it is not much.If a cat 4 or 5 came in,about what water level would be in my house?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:47 AM |
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Re: storm surge?
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According to this: http://www.broward.org/disaster/epi00304.pdf if you are West of US 1 you're OK.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:53 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:
I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.
I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree here. If by immediate you mean within 3-4 days, no... I don't see a threat either, however if by immediate you mean within the next week-week and a half, with three waves out there, Florida definitely has an immediate threat. The Atlantic is not exactly quiet now Michael...
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:54 AM |
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Re: storm surge?
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Quote:Thanks for the link.I am east of US1,in the plan B zone.
According to this: http://www.broward.org/disaster/epi00304.pdf if you are West of US 1 you're OK.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:03 AM |
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Re: 92L
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>>Well guess since JB couldn't get a direct hit on New Orleans guess he would try his luck somewhere else hummmmm like up the East coast?
New Orleans was never a direct target. Despite the mouth of the River call for Dennis, we're probably as close to Gulfport and Biloxi as we are to the mouth of the River. The Louisiana zone was only progged to 13 points, and we have already scored 6 or 7 on his scale (having either 2 tropical storms or 1 tropical storm and 1 cane depending on how one views Cindy - the damage was Cat 1). His highest impact to start the season was AL/MS/NWFL which sustained 2 hits - Cat 3 and strong Tropical Storm - as well as additional likely TD conditions from Cindy. FWIW, his new video still shows 6 points for the LA zone for the year. And that adds up to either effects from 3 tropical storms or a Cat 1 and a TS. We'll see.
But you bring up a good point. That 28 points for the Carolina zone is absurd. A landfalling Cat 4 scores 32 points, and he's giving it cumulative 28. Thats' a lot of tropical action and BIG action at that (even if some of those points are scored via a system coming up from the Gulf and across the Southeast).
I was amazed that he was willing to up his intensity scale beyond last year's total which was nearly a fluke in itself. He's going out on a pretty big limb even if the setup for the rest of the season would lead one to believe that the US Coast is a target. We absorbed many landfalls last year - some pretty strong ones too - so we'll see as time marches on.
Steve
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: storm surge?
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The highest recorded storm surge in the US was Camille..a catagory 5 who's winds I believe were 170 mph. It was 21 feet and traveled 1-2 miles inland.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:12 AM |
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Re: storm surge?
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My plan (which I hope I will not have to use)is to stock up my car,and go to a parking garage downtown.And will bring my camcorder.I will have to find a place to put my furnture,not sure where yet.But this will only be for a cat 3 or higher,I will stay at home for a cat 1 or 2.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:13 AM |
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i was kidding
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phil i was kidding..trying to get peoples minds off how flipping busy this season will be..sorry
and you say a lot of things pointing to the northeast..all i see is the above normal SST's..what else..enlighten me
your starting to scare me that somethings going down..very soon
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:15 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:92L is still 2 - 3 days from developing, if at all, and still a week away from becoming any threat to land. 93L is even farther away. I don't see the possibility of a threat to Florida until after next week, if even then.Quote:
I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.
I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree here. If by immediate you mean within 3-4 days, no... I don't see a threat either, however if by immediate you mean within the next week-week and a half, with three waves out there, Florida definitely has an immediate threat. The Atlantic is not exactly quiet now Michael...
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:15 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:Quote:
I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.
I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree here. If by immediate you mean within 3-4 days, no... I don't see a threat either, however if by immediate you mean within the next week-week and a half, with three waves out there, Florida definitely has an immediate threat. The Atlantic is not exactly quiet now Michael...
im gonna have to go with the big red machine on that one Michael..
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: 92L
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I feel that Florida is unlikely to be hit before mid August, that being said, looking long range Mid Aug. to end of Sept.......The South East Coast of Florida could be under the gun for a Cat 3 or 4.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: 92L
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what makes you think that?..i mean they could get hit early august..
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:20 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:What makes you think that?I am very interested to say the least.
I feel that Florida is unlikely to be hit before mid August, that being said, looking long range Mid Aug. to end of Sept.......The South East Coast of Florida could be under the gun for a Cat 3 or 4.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:21 AM |
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Re: 92L
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This year is uncertain for sure however I would not venture a guess that Florida would not be hit ... There are many waves ,storms and hurricanes to follow if the trend continues as it is. I remeber last year wondering if the season would ever start and this year we are looking forward to the end. September 15 is the height of the season and we have a little over 50 days yet to reach that point. Keep your eyes open and continue to watch.. It is when we don't watch that we all get ourselves into trouble by letting down our guard. We should never close our eyes to the unknown of the season. Certainly we would all like to see a gentle year with no more loss of lives or personal lost. Be alert to the season and respect it.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:24 AM |
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Re: 92L
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amen to that
-- Edited by Mod
| damejune2 |
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| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:24 AM |
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Re: i ws kidding
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I am no MET, in fact i am a total novice about hurricanes, BUT, if i lived in/on Long Island, C.T, R.I, or Mass, i wouldn't be worried about hurricanes. Since Gloria, how many storms have you had hit there? I mean really, how many direct hits has LI, NYC, or any other New England city taken in the last 20 years? I am sorry if i am sounding like this, but i live in Florida which means pretty much every wave that comes off the African coast is of major concern to me and my family. I wish i lived on LI or any where in the northeast. You don't know how lucky you are. So please........perhaps you could tone it down a notch or two. In my defense, i and others on this site have a heck of a lot more to worry about as far as hurricanes are concerned. Just sit back and relax, maybe go out to Montauk Point and take a swim in that warmer water. Sorry for the attitude, but this is almost like a billionaire complaining that he didn't hit the lottery. If this post is to be removed, so be it and i understand, but i just had to say something. Do others on here feel like this guy from LI is over reacting a little?
BTW - Gloria's eye passed right over my house in Winsted, Connecticut. I was 12 years old. The storm blew down an apple tree in our yard and we never lost power.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:26 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Bob:
After 45 yrs at sea in the US Navy, retired as an Capt. Think I seen more Storms then most on here, anyhow to answer your question it's more of a gut feel looking at the long range weather forecasts.. No hard facts.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: i was kidding
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Quote:
I am no MET, in fact i am a total novice about hurricanes, BUT, if i lived in/on Long Island, C.T, R.I, or Mass, i wouldn't be worried about hurricanes. Since Gloria, how many storms have you had hit there? I mean really, how many direct hits has LI, NYC, or any other New England city taken in the last 20 years? I am sorry if i am sounding like this, but i live in Florida which means pretty much every wave that comes off the African coast is of major concern to me and my family. I wish i lived on LI or any where in the northeast. You don't know how lucky you are. So please........perhaps you could tone it down a notch or two. In my defense, i and others on this site have a heck of a lot more to worry about as far as hurricanes are concerned. Just sit back and relax, maybe go out to Montauk Point and take a swim in that warmer water. Sorry for the attitude, but this is almost like a billionaire complaining that he didn't hit the lottery. If this post is to be removed, so be it and i understand, but i just had to say something. Do others on here feel like this guy from LI is over reacting a little?
BTW - Gloria's eye passed right over my house in Winsted, Connecticut. I was 12 years old. The storm blew down an apple tree in our yard and we never lost power.
seriously i wouldnt be on here if i didnt care dont think storms dont affect me
hurricane andrew destroyed my apartment outside of miami and jeanna tore the roof of my condo..dont tell me that i shud relax i have a house in orlando and a condo in stuart that jsut got fixed from jeanne so scuse you for tlaking like that becuase i shud worry just as much and dont think i dont have any symptahy are you kidding..my family would have been ruined if we didnt evacuate before jeanne tore the rook off..i mean my life aint so sunshine and roses buddy
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: i ws kidding
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Living where I do now,But also having lived in R.I.,I have to say there is big difference as far as worrying about hurricanes go.But I went through some bad storms up there,Bob was the last one and it did alot of damage in R.I.I see your point,But the whole east coast needs to have a plan and pay attention.And they are due up there.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:35 AM |
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Re: i was kidding
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thank you bob
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Old Sailor - Let me see if i understand what people are saying. Because of the position of the Bermuda high, there is a slim chance that yes, hurricanes and or TS's will hit florida, but there is also a chance, better than last year, that these storms will go north? I read about that...what do you think?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: 92L
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as much as you made me a little angry, i thinkt he bermuda high is "deflecting" storms north thats why the carolinas is the numero uno on "the list" you dont want to be on
truce kiddo?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:45 AM |
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Re: i was kidding
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Ok, sorry for upsetting you
-- Let's not tell others what they feel..
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:47 AM |
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Re: i was kidding
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Truce now?? Face it, we are all targets of storms whether it be blizzards in your area or tropical stuff down here. Sorry about the money comments, but you touched a nerve with me too!!!!
Lets move on.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: i ws kidding
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Well, there is a bit of a difference between storms striking Florida and storms striking New England. Namely the forward speed. If the NE were to be hit by a storm moving at 10 - 15 MPH rather than the usual 25 - 30 MPH at that latitude, the damage would be devastating. It isn't a function so much of the max winds, but of the duration of those winds. Not down playing storms hitting NE, just comparing 2 - 3 hours of damaging winds to the 4, 6, or 8 hours experienced at this latitude.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: 92L
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so anyway, what do people think has the greater potential for developement 92L or 93L?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: 92L
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There's a chance that the storms will continue west underneath the ridge, or there's a chance that they will recurve around its perophery. It can be the difference of 10m in height in the mid-levels that determines whether a storm recurves or not, or it could be whether or not a trough comes through at the right time to pick up a storm. We can't tell any of those well in advance of the storm -- and the models don't always get those and other factors precisely correct, as we saw last year -- so to say that any particular area is moreso under the gun than any other, beyond what climatology might suggest, isn't prudent.
Based upon a sheer increase in activity, however, everywhere is moreso under the gun than normal. Research is ongoing to try to see if the probabilities of a particular area being hit or not can be determined, but that science is in its infancy and just experimental at this point. Anyone who says that a certain area will or will not see a storm this season is lying, because they do not know. You can say that there is an increased likelihood of a storm potentially affecting your area, based upon an overall average of the steering currents & storm activity, but that's about as far as we can go right now.
What Bastardi, Gray, and others are doing in reality follows along these lines, though I don't know if I'd go so far as to assign points to various reasons as does JB. But, the way they get interpreted and occasionally presented leads many to think that this is not the case -- it's here where some in the media create a large disconnect between fiction and reality for the sake of ratings & readership. Read everything you can out there, but unless you see it rooted in scientific research (past, current, or ongoing), take it with a grain of salt.
With all of that said...I think everyone here needs to tone down the banter just a little bit. There's no sense in having a flame war go on. Feel free to express your opinions, share your ideas, talk about the storm -- talk about whatever! -- but please do be considerate of others here when doing so. It's one thing to disagree over politics or your favorite baseball team or how many coins I have in my hand; it's another to be talking about life & death when it comes to these storms in mere wishes.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Please note I said..Florida could be under the gun for a Cat 3 or 4. I didn't say it would be for sure, also agree that SC and NC maybe be subject to the same type of Hurricane.... And the Gulf is not out of the woods yet... places like Eastern North Texas, La. and Tampa Bay but feel they would more then likely see a Cat 2.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:53 AM |
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Re: storm surge?
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Although it could be a safe place...the City would kick you out.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:53 AM |
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Re: 92L
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sorry captain
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:55 AM |
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Re: storm surge?
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dont mean to go rambling on bout LI but int he case of a cat 2 hurricane hiting southern LI, can there still be storm surge from the LI sound to the north shore?
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:00 AM |
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Re: i was kidding
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New Yorkers give little thought to hurricanes since Long Island is so far from the warm, tropical oceans that feed hurricanes. However, according to the 1984 Hurricane Damage Mitigation Plan by the Long Island Regional Planning Board, several hurricanes and 15 tropical storms have made landfall in this area since 1886. According to historical record, there have been five "epic hurricanes" (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir Simpson Scale) in the years 1938, 1893, 1821, 1815, and 1635 (Hughes).
from http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_climatology.html
So, you know, it doesn't really matter how often a threat, it only takes one devastating event to change the lives of many. Long Island, like Florida and the rest of the coastal areas of the United States have had such a population growth that a dramatic storm now impacts millions.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:
Eastern North Texas,
FYI ... no such place exists on the Texas coast (Technically that would be places like Tyler, Palestine and Texarkana ... all well inland)
If you're talking about the Texas coast from Houston/Galveston north... that's normally referred to as the "Upper Texas coast"
'shana
| nowhammies |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:05 AM |
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a silly question about 93 models
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Okay - speaking of things
JKI was looking at the models of the92 & 93 - 93 has a confusing thing on it - one of the models - one I dont hear many people talk about (which may be related to the probem) has the storm making a rather sharp turn to the north. Like it is gonna run into a wall.
What would be there that would be strong enough to make that happen that abruptly?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:06 AM |
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Re: a silly question about 93 models
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good question
can i have the link fo the models you were looking at?
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:06 AM |
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Re: a silly question about 93 models
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Quote:
What would be there that would be strong enough to make that happen that abruptly?
Bad data input?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:09 AM |
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models
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http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html
look at that..dont you think thats a little to far north..and they have it intensifying in kts..what are peoples inputs on this
info apreciated
-Ryan
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:22 AM |
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Re: models
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If Long Island was about 400 miles south, it would be the most dangerous place in the world (outside of Bangledesh of course) for storms. Fact is, it isn't. And based on my understanding of plate-techtonics, it will never be. As noted above, the last epic storm was some 67 years ago. That's a lot of time. And while it's certainly possible that a major could hit up that way (has before, will again) in a given season, the dynamics required are pretty rare.
I agree with the "relax and enjoy the ride" scenario presented by Ryan. Frankly, I don't understand how people could be into the tropics and then act like a non-major would be the end of the world. I also understand that some people are paranoid by nature and drawn by their fears to storm forums. But the vast majority of us enjoy tropical storms and minimal canes despite the potential hazards and minor inconveniences they bring. I guess it's just part of being a freak of a different nature. But I'm more of a sitting duck than anyone on this forum, and the last thing I'm going to do is come down on anyone else for hoping to see some tropical action. JMO.
Steve
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:30 AM |
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Re: models
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tanks steve, i agree with you
what do you hink about the 92L model i posted you freak of a different nature..haha
i go with whoever said this before
if you like on the east coast of the US your a sitting duck
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:31 AM |
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Re: models
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Well,I remember seeing alot of boats on peoples lawns after Bob hit R.I.And being without power a few days.Also seen bulidings swept out to sea.And that was not that long ago.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:32 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Ryan- I for one feel like everyone has their own weather problems to deal with, here in Florida, Hurricanes- Your area Blizzards- California, wildfires, earthquakes, ect. Where I used to live we constantly had to deal with the threat of tornadoes. No matter where in the US we live Mother Nature is the one in control, and all we can do is try to better educate ourselves so that when something bad happens we are at least prepared. I value everyones ideas , suggestions, advice and knowledge. This board has been my salvation.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:34 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Also the eye of Bob went right over Block Island,RI. with 105mph winds.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:35 AM |
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Re: 92L
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yea debbie i mean thats one of the main reasons im hear to educate myself, god forbid, if this is our time you know?
what do you think of the 92L model i posted a little while ago?
-Ryan
| Goosus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:36 AM |
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Natural Disasters
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What are they afraid of in Boise Idaho?
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:41 AM |
| Attachment |
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What are your thoughts for tomorrow?
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I attached the most recent IR of the Eastern Atlantic what are your thoughts on these waves. I noticed in 92L a large flare up on the northern end of the waver that seems to be pretty persistent. 93L is does not have as much convection but, seems to be holding together pretty well. Lastly the wave behind 93L is still holdng together also. What do we have to look out for tomorrow and what has to happen for any of these waves to develope? Thanks....
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:41 AM |
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Re: Natural Disasters
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me, no idk tornadoes, snow..idk
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:43 AM |
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Re: What are your thoughts for tomorrow?
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Quote:
I attached the most recent IR of the Eastern Atlantic what are your thoughts on these waves. I noticed in 92L a large flare up on the northern end of the waver that seems to be pretty persistent. 93L is does not have as much convection but, seems to be holding together pretty well. Lastly the wave behind 93L is still holdng together also. What do we have to look out for tomorrow and what has to happen for any of these waves to develope? Thanks....
http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html
^^thats 92L look where the models are taking it..looks northward what are your thoughts on this one WX Storm 2005, and others?
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:44 AM |
Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work
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Steve I am one of those people that is just a bit nervous. Hurricanes are new to me I have lived here for only 3 years. Having 2 hurricanes make landfall in my area in less than three weeks was too much for me. I think someone told me that PSL had not been hit in about 40 years until last year anyone know if that is trues?
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:51 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: What are your thoughts for tomorrow?
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Well my initial thoughts looking the Water Vapor loop is that there is a persistant cry area to the south of the convection which is not helping development. Secondly there is a ridge of high pressure that is forcast to strenghten above 92L. If this ridge intensifies and moves more south and westward then we would be looking at a situation where it would move this wave more toward the East Coast. Attached is the GFS sea level pressure at hour 0 which shows what I am talking about. Long range and intesity is usually never good on forcast models. My instinct would tell me that if this convection persists and the dry air relaxs towards the west we could be looking at a possible TD in 24-48 hours to worry about.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:53 AM |
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Re: What are your thoughts for tomorrow?
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i will most definatley be wathcign this little buger
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:03 AM |
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Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work
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I understand Debbie. 2004 was a wakeup call for a lot of people that now call Florida home. Because of what they refer to as the Multi Decadal Cycle (has to do with ocean warming) that we're in now (last one lasted from the 40's through the 60's), there will be a lot more hits than even us coastal long-timers are used to. These cycles last from perhaps 20-50 years, and we've apparently been in this one since 1995 after a lull from 1970-1994ish. Storms are a fact of life. There is no defense against them, so it's on us as individuals and heads of households to learn how to prepare for and deal with them. The best advice I could ever give anyone is to heed whatever warnings the NHC and your local NWS puts out. If they say "get", then get. Often times it will be a false alarm, but a day or two of inconvenience due to a false alarm is better than making funeral arrangements. I know I'm whacked in the head with hurricanes, and my wife absolutely loathes and fears them (and thinks I'm a complete idiot when it comes to following the tropics), but I get nervous just like you and most other people do. But my fascination tempered with the anticipation for the possible extremes gives rise to irrational behavior (e.g. wanting to see what storm 'x' has to offer). In a way, it's like the proverbial train wreck. You know it's bad, but I gotta look anyway. Twisted? Probably.
But you're at one of the best places on the web to learn about this stuff. And your two storms last year probably prepared you a bit for what lies ahead and what might be the upper limit your home and nerves can handle.
Ryan,
I don't know about 92L. I really don't have any thoughts on it yet. I'm just watching.
Steve
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:33 AM |
Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work
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Steve- I agree 100% that this site is the greatest, I found it by chance last year before Frances and have been coming back since then. I learned so much last year and value all the info you guys put out there. Thanks and keep up the great job.What sanity I have is because of this site and the fact I can now follow these storms and better prepare myself if need be. During hurricane season my computer is logged on to this site and my tv is on the weather station
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:40 AM |
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Re: models
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Quote:
http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html
look at that..dont you think thats a little to far north..and they have it intensifying in kts..what are peoples inputs on this
info apreciated
-Ryan
Ryan
Thats the XTRP model which to me is usless. It's just one thrown in there for good measure. The GFDL GFS UKMET NOGAPS are the models to look at. Maybe the ECMC and the FSU MM5
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:16 AM |
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Re: models
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o0o ok thnaks..i wills till be watching like i always do just in case
| Goosus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:38 AM |
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Re: models
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Maybe I'm an idiot, but I always took "XTRP" in the spaghetti models to be short hand for "extrapolate", as in they're drawing a straight line from where the storm is to what direction it's moving at last recon.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:45 AM |
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Re: models
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Quote:
Maybe I'm an idiot, but I always took "XTRP" in the spaghetti models to be short hand for "extrapolate", as in they're drawing a straight line from where the storm is to what direction it's moving at last recon.
Yea thats what it is. Like I said useless. Knowing the storm is not going to go in a "STRAIGHT" line. ANd if you notice the models may go a little to the right or to the left of the line the XTRP will go 200 miles either way. When I run my models I dont include the XTRP model.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:51 AM |
|
Re: models
|
As an aside, XTRP is just extrapolated motion. It is basically the recent motion of the wave extrapolated linearly to 5 days. I wouldn't pay it any mind.
In the tropics, Franklin is hanging on -- shouldn't get to hurricane status like was insinuated earlier today, but might strengthen a little more. These sheared storms are difficult to classify, even given Dvorak estimates, because we don't have recon going out there into the storm. QuikSCAT and microwave imagery helps for winds and structure, but even they have their limitations. It could be stronger than the satellite appearance if the past trends when recon flights were out there still hold true, or it could be weaker. Nevertheless, 50mph seems about right.
92L has seen the convection consolidate a bit on its northern edge with a corresponding tightening of the inner-core rotation. It's getting closer to being able to develop, but it's not there yet. Give it another couple of days. It still has some dry air to deal with on its western periphery, getting ingested from the SW into the main part of the feature, and is in a region of relatively high wind shear. This should weaken in the medium-range as the wave moves west. Any motion should keep it moving west or just slightly north of due west, potentially affecting the islands in a day or two.
93L is on the downswing convection-wise again, but the mid-level feature remains. If it can spit up some convection and keep it, as I've been maintaining for a couple of days now, it could get going at a pretty decent clip. It doesn't have as much model support, but I chalk that up to its small size plus the feature being primarily at the midlevels as opposted to the surface. As long as it doesn't get caught up in the flow around 92L, it should start to fire up in a day or so. Thursday isn't looking likely for a categorized storm, but I'll be mildly surprised if we don't see a depression out of this by sometime over the weekend. It too should head west, likely ending up as a Caribbean system in time.
It's way too early to tell what either 92L or 93L might bring towards the US. There is a trough about to reach to eastern coast and a couple of upper-lows in the SW Atlantic and near the Yucutan; this may or may not change over the next 5 days. The trough may linger near the Gulf coast, always bringing the threat for some development with it, but I'm not convinced it'll be strong enough to get down there -- it's already starting to elongate east-west with little forcing in the western US/upstream to push the southern end along. Still, it remains something to watch, both for the Gulf Stream and Gulf itself.
Some energy is trying to slip out of the trough currently to the north of 92L, but I'm not sure anything is going to be able to cut off in the ridge and develop. We'll know by later today what's going to happen there, if anything.
More as events warrant...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:02 AM |
|
Re: models
|
As another heads-up, tropical-wise, the FSU Superensemble has been the best performing model for two years running. Of course, it's not publically available, so we can't use the output to make forecasts...only the NHC can. The NOGAPS model was best in 2002 and has remained near the top ever since; the UKMET was best in 2001 yet has been one of the worst since then. It was negatively influenced by 1 storm in 2002, but no such excuses can be made for the past two years. The UK Met Office apparently made some changes to the model during that time which hasn't resulted quite as favorably as they would've hoped or expected. The GFS is always near the middle of the pack, while the GFDL is similar (it's run off of the GFS initial conditions). The GFDN, or the GFDL run off of the NOGAPS initial conditions, generally performs slightly better. Both are usually either too low or too high with intensity. The Canadian (CMC) and European Center (ECMWF) models aren't run as much for tropical activity, though the latter does quite well and the former has its moments...particularly with recurving storms.
On a global scale, the ECMWF model has been the best for some time. The UKMET model is up there as well, as is the Japanese (JMA) model. The GFS is towards the middle-end of the pack as far as global models go, but improving. Note that many of the tropical models are just mesoscale models -- this includes the GFDL and various flavors of both the WRF and MM5, plus all of the steering layer (e.g. BAM-series, LBAR, A98E) and statistical (e.g. CLIPER) models -- and thus not relevant to this part of the discussion.
In this decade, the dynamical models (GFS, GFDL, ECMWF, UKMET, and so on) heavily outperform the limited-area/statistical-dynamical models (BAM-series, LBAR, etc.) and are even better than the statistical/persistence models. This wasn't always the case. Until the mid-90s, when the global models improved in the tropics to the point of relevancy, the statistical-dynamical models were relied upon for track and intensity forecasting; back into the 80s and prior, it was down to forecaster experience, looking at the flow regimes (as best as they could tell from water vapor; satellite analyses such as the UWisconsin products weren't around back then), and the statistical/persistence models. Kinda funny how we've come full circle, with a statistical model (FSU Superensemble) at the head of the pack, though it really is better classified as a dynamical model with statistical modifications.
Obviously, models change from year to year (and occasionally more frequently than that), whether in terms of their resolution, the physics they employ, or even how they ingest data. That's why it's important to use past performance as just a tool until you can determine how a given model is doing with any given storm or any given season/environmental regime. It's also why the FSU Superensemble -- heavily based upon prior model performance -- tends to struggle early in the season; the changes in the model aren't always able to be accounted for, making the first few storms' forecasts not as accurate as they could be.
Hope this sheds some light on the model questions...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:12 AM |
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rehash and additions
|
i'm going to guess that the fun starts friday.
clark covered 92/93 in the same sort of fashion i would. well... with a more professional touch. my guess is that 92L will have consolidated enough to develop by friday.. 93L may reach the threshold around the same time (really whenever it gets east of the upper easterly jet which is shearing it). 92L will probably develop very close to the northern leewards, 93L will be on a lower trajectory. 92L is the larger threat to the u.s. in about a week, dependent on how stable the western periphery of the ridge is around that time.
clark mentioned the gulf feature... similar take here.. a whole scatter of models see it differently, and many keep it close enough to land that its offshore development window would be sort of sketchy. an impulse rotating offshore la on the back side of that 500mb weakness or a wave on whatever is left of the front offshore would have to be the culprit.
three other mentionables for a total of six. notice the piece of wave energy that was trackable from the large wave that lead the moisture surge off africa... moving northwest of puerto rico. this will feed into the 500mb weakness in franklin's wake near the bahamas and several models are showing development riding up the eastern seaboard that is potentially a propagation of this feature... we may have a close-in development this weekend running roughly from the bahamas to nc/sc to nantucket.
next is the wave trailing 93L.. it's fairly robust, just not as far along as the others. various globals are tracking/developing it. it'll won't happen before next week, though.
other thing is the complex deep layer system forecast to develop around 30n/45-50w. globals run all sorts of features out of this to several different compass points.. and use it as a weakness to draw up 93L and it's trailer. i'm more convinced the trailer will catch the lift than 93L will... maybe both. this may make a run at hybrid development, and may cause the western periphery of the ridge to amplify (i.e. turn up whatever is trying to come underneath it near the east coast).
anyhow, very active setup we have here. 2-3 storms likely to emerge out of it, outside shot at 4. this weekend/next week things ought to get pretty interesting.
HF 0712z28july
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:22 AM |
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Re: Natural Disasters
|
Debbie: In Boise they fear the cold, blizzards and STRANGERS...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:27 AM |
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Re: storm surge?
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Camille's surge was more than 21 feet... I had 22 feet at my house in Biloxi and I was about 19 miles or so east of the center .... my house has been surveyed to be 20 feet above sea level... water marks were 2 feet high in my house from Camille... The house I was living in at the time on the point in Biloxi was 17 feet above sea level... we had 5 feet of water in that house... I was in it at the time... you don't forget something like that... that house is another 7 miles east of where my present house is and 26 miles from the center... I've read reports that the surge was as high as 25-27 feet above sea level just east of where the eye went inland near Bay St. Louis MS... Camille's surge was unbelievable and was the greatest contributor to the massive and total destruction along the MS coast and subsequent loss of lives....
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:34 AM |
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Re: models
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Cany anyone give the best links to the available models?
Thanks!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:41 AM |
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Re: models
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http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
just click on the TC you want to look at
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:42 AM |
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Re: models
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http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
another good site for seeing the loops of certain models
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:45 AM |
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Re: models
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The links are on the first post.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:50 AM |
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Re: models
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Quote:
Cany anyone give the best links to the available models?
Thanks!
Look at the bottom of the main page of this site. You will see links to models, other sites, various information. This page does a great job of providing a wealth of information, plus links to other sites for additional viewpoints, links, etc.
Michael
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:55 AM |
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Re: models
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WOW! You folks are fast... he had three other answers before I could finish typing my resonse!!!
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 12:01 PM |
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Re: storm surge?
|
I think it was Camille I went through where I was surfing on Gulf Blvd between the hotels! It was unbelievable how much water ended up on the barrier islands in that storm and, yet, the storm didn't even come close to us.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 12:29 PM |
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Re: storm surge?
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I was reading up on storm surge and they figure Camille's was at least 25 feet. I read that Carla (1961) had 22 a foot storm surge. 250,000 + people evacuated the Texas coast for Carla.
Camille 1969
Texas Hurricane History: Late 20th Century Scroll down for Carla info
'shana
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:36 PM |
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Re: 92L
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Is it just me or is the convection of 92L Flaring up? Also is 93L lossing convection and from what it looks we might have 94L by the end of friday.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:44 PM |
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Re: 92L
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I noticed that myself. Maybe we will have something later today. I'm still to new to make the call.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 01:59 PM |
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Re: 92L
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We are also referred to as southeast Texas.
Also, question, don't these storms serve the purpose of moving heat from the tropics?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:12 PM |
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Re: storm surge?
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My Mom talked of the evacuation for Carla. Of course, I was only two at the time so I don't remember it.
That was some storm.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:15 PM |
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Re: storm surge?
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My mother also talked of Audrey. She always talked of the windows rattling and how the winds scared her.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:18 PM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:
We are also referred to as southeast Texas.
Also, question, don't these storms serve the purpose of moving heat from the tropics?
Yes, they help maintain the global heat balance.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:20 PM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:By have 94L I 'am talking about the wave in the eastern atlantic and i was the checking the IR and it look like that wave behind 93L is about as devloped as it.
Is it just me or is the convection of 92L Flaring up? Also is 93L lossing convection and from what it looks we might have 94L by the end of friday.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: 92L
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Anyone know a link to find air quality??? (if I am using the correct term) I am looking for the central Florida ara.
Thanks.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:48 PM |
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Re: 92L
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Quote:Quote:
We are also referred to as southeast Texas.
Also, question, don't these storms serve the purpose of moving heat from the tropics?
Yes, they help maintain the global heat balance.
Hurricanes serve a distinct purpose in atmospheric balance. That purpose is to move heat from the tropics toward the poles, thus balancing the amount of heat across the Earth. Just as thunderstorms move heat from the surface to the upper levels of the atmosphere, hurricanes balance the global environment by moving heat from the equatorial regions toward the middle latitudes. This heat transfer comes in the form of "sensible heat", (heat we can feel), and "latent heat", (heat stored in the process of evaporation and later released through condensation).
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 02:55 PM |
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Re: 92L
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we may have 94L by the end of the day..if we do thats 3 to be watching which would mean things are heating up again
Question: If the weather says there is a tropical airmass coming up from the south..does that carry any tropical storms with it?
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:01 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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92L know has winds of 25knots according to the navy web site and a pressure of 1011 mb we should have our tropical deppression this afternoon am pretty sure 25knots are 30 MPH winds
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:06 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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possible
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: 92L
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Katie,
I think that www.weather.com has air quality, pollen forecast etc. You should be able to pull it up by your zip.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:11 PM |
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Re: 92L
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Thanks Hoot. I emailed John W. I will look at that as well.
EDIT: just as I suspected.... Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - great...it is going to be a long day. Why couldn't I be a little bit closer to Tampa? Oh well.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:15 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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92L has a big flare up of thunderstorms it getting its act toghether and is showing that it going to become a tropical deppression
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:19 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
92L has a big flare up of thunderstorms it getting its act toghether and is showing that it going to become a tropical deppression
I agree I totally think that it will be TD 8 by tonight or tommorow morning also I think the wave behind 93L will be tagged I not as shure that 93L will devlop for a while yet it look like it has been get less organized the the flare of convection it had close to the Cape Verdes
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:20 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
92L know has winds of 25knots according to the navy web site and a pressure of 1011 mb we should have our tropical deppression this afternoon am pretty sure 25knots are 30 MPH winds
actually its 29MPH, but close enough for government work. you can convert knots to mph on several sites, including the NHC site and hurricanetrack.com, as well as others.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:27 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Am not to worry about 93L it real disorganize right know but it could get it act together later on beside 92L that am real paying attention to there is another wave by 93L that would be 94L that one is really getting it act together and may show some development in the future right know aw pay attention to 92L its the closes one to the united states and it treating Florida by the start of next week
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:31 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html
in 5 days or so SHF5 has the intensity to be at 72 kts and SHIPS has it to be at 78 kts
that sounds like a cane to me...and also, 3/15 models have the storm turning north and 11 have it threatening florida..we'll see what happens.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:33 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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The FSU MM5 has 4 Atlantic storms projected for 120 hours out! Wow!
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:33 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Has anyone obtained JB's updated views on 92L and 93L?
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:35 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 281521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND
ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
("This would be 92L") SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
("This would be 93L")A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
I also think ther could be another wave there on the 1030 outlook
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:55 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Some take a look at web page and click the 7 day loop. On the 7th day it show a low at 1012 right on Florida's east coast. What is that????
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 03:57 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_bw.gif
I think this is what you mean... and it is the Hydrometerological Prediction Center's
7 day forecast
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:02 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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92L is starting to show its spin. We may already have a depression after all.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:03 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Yes, that is what I mean. Did you see the image for day 7?
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:03 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
92L is starting to show its spin. We may already have a depression after all.
That can not be a good thing
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:05 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
92L is starting to show its spin. We may already have a depression after all.
Send me the link you are looking it.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:06 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Here's a better link than the first one I sent. Still learning how to send links. web page
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:14 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:That link does not work.
Some take a look at <a href="www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov" target="_blank">web page</a> and click the 7 day loop. On the 7th day it show a low at 1012 right on Florida's east coast. What is that????
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:15 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Yes, I have been watching that for a few days now
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:19 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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It's just the GOES imagery - real time (1 hour ago) loop . It may oinly be a UL spin, but a spinning feature nonetheless.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:22 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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click on the link i posted in post #45750
check out the last map, it for august 3rd, wednesday of
next week
that is what wanna was talkin about
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:28 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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But in reality, that future tropical storm (hurricane?) 92L may work its way around the ridge- too early to tell, of course, but even this sequential mapping of the low's movement shows a curving feature- hopefully- away from the coastal areas of northern Florida/Carolinas. But it's too early to tell. It does seem good for us that it would seem to be moving north of the Bahamas.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:31 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
92L is starting to show its spin. We may already have a depression after all.
Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
NOUS42 KNHC 281600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT THU 28 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-061
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 29/1430Z
D. 18.5N 62.0W
E. 29/1930Z TO 29/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:33 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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web page
try this one.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:35 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Here's a visible loop on WUnderground. I wouldn't be surprised if we see TD8 at 19Z.
Here's a question for Clark or anybody else, what's the difference between the FSU Superensemble and the MM5 model available on the moe.met.fsu site? I don't remember seeing the latter available last year, but the Superensemble is still talked about as being unavailable to the public.
Speaking of the MM5, it shows 93L spinning up first, followed by both developed storms turning NW in tandem, 92L over the eastern Bahamas and 93L east of the Leewards. Also, it shows something spinning up in the shallow northern GOM and coming ashore, guess where, over Pensacola
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:37 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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that is really awesome map thingie...lol...but i sure wish for the best for the people on the east coast....
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 04:53 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
that is really awesome map thingie...lol...but i sure wish for the best for the people on the east coast....
east coast of florida or the US?
I would imagine the entire east coast, since no specific location was specified. --Clark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:04 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
|
The Superensemble is a statistical model that takes output from the global & some tropical models and uses the known qualities and biases of each model with particular types of storms and tries to minimize that error. The MM5 is just our version of the standard MM5 model, here applied to tropical cyclone forecasting. It is a dynamical model, uses the GFS analyses as its initial conditions, and is run only over a portion of the globe. The two models are run by two different groups here at FSU, with the output from the Superensemble not available to the public and the MM5 output being freely available. There is no connection between the two other than the fact that they both originate out of FSU.
| Ed G |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:05 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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"east coast of florida or the US"?
LOL! We must have become a seperate country some time during the night.
Conch Republic
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:07 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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no i mean the florida coast or the entie coast, but clark answere my question..gracias
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:08 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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92L is still very broad and disorganized. The leading edge of the wave is located near 16N and 58W with a weak low vortex with it. Also there is more thunderstorm activity with the northern extent near 18.5 and 53 W. Overall its a 1011mb low ( which has been for couple days now). I dont feel there will be a dep until the plane gets in tomorrow or 1 of the 2 vortexs becomes the main low. Models want to show the 1 near 58W as the main center and so do I. If so then its still very weak with the lack of convection. I expect this system overall to continue w-wnw thru the weekend and be near the SE bahamas by Sunday as a tropical storm. Trough coming down off the U.S east coast by then will slow this significantly. After that it there is a split. 40% it could meander up the east coast offshore.30% move out to sea. 30% stay far enough south to miss the trough and continue wnw thru the fla straits by Tuesday.
Again as I said couple days ago, I dont think this will be a TD until Friday. There is no main center of circulation with this yet.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:09 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:Now that is funny!!!We needed that.Well our little break seems to be coming to an end.Lots of stuff to watch.Hang on!!!
"east coast of florida or the US"?
LOL! We must have become a seperate country some time during the night.
Conch Republic
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:09 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Ok, how long till we know something? We're in Melbourne and going out of town on Sat for 1 week. I dread driving as far as we're going only having to come back to prepare the house and what-not! Not only that but we'll be camping in the mountains so I can't get to this board or the NHC. (can you say withdrawels..LOL)Do you think we'll know more by tomorrow night? Hopefully this won't even make ts status. I'm just thinking just in case.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:12 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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The HPC 7-day forecast is interesting. It seems some of the global models are showing the same thing...a storm heading through the bahamas inching its way either north or northwest..The lastest GFS & UKMET really slow the storm down over the bahamas. I presume becuz of a lack of steering currents for several days. What's real interesting on the 7 day HPC graphic is that big ole high pressure system in the mid-atlantic region. If this verifies and the ridge stays strong or gets stronger, it may force 92L (named system?) west into the peninsula aka Frances & Jeanne of last year.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:13 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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>>There is no main center of circulation with this yet.
I agree with scotts. 92L still has a ways to go despite its improving presentation.
Steve
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:13 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
92L is still very broad and disorganized. The leading edge of the wave is located near 16N and 58W with a weak low vortex with it. Also there is more thunderstorm activity with the northern extent near 18.5 and 53 W. Overall its a 1011mb low ( which has been for couple days now). I dont feel there will be a dep until the plane gets in tomorrow or 1 of the 2 vortexs becomes the main low. Models want to show the 1 near 58W as the main center and so do I. If so then its still very weak with the lack of convection. I expect this system overall to continue w-wnw thru the weekend and be near the SE bahamas by Sunday as a tropical storm. Trough coming down off the U.S east coast by then will slow this significantly. After that it there is a split. 40% it could meander up the east coast offshore.30% move out to sea. 30% stay far enough south to miss the trough and continue wnw thru the fla straits by Tuesday.
Again as I said couple days ago, I dont think this will be a TD until Friday. There is no main center of circulation with this yet.
this seems about right scottsvb--i mean the percentages but i think we may have a TD by the close of saturday maybe sunday
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:14 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:I am not touching this one.If I say go have a good time and don't worry,and then something bad happens you will be mad at me.And,If I say don't go,and nothing happens,you will be mad at me.
Ok, how long till we know something? We're in Melbourne and going out of town on Sat for 1 week. I dread driving as far as we're going only having to come back to prepare the house and what-not! Not only that but we'll be camping in the mountains so I can't get to this board or the NHC. (can you say withdrawels..LOL)Do you think we'll know more by tomorrow night? Hopefully this won't even make ts status. I'm just thinking just in case.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:14 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Quote:
The HPC 7-day forecast is interesting. It seems some of the global models are showing the same thing...a storm heading through the bahamas inching its way either north or northwest..The lastest GFS & UKMET really slow the storm down over the bahamas. I presume becuz of a lack of steering currents for several days. What's real interesting on the 7 day HPC graphic is that big ole high pressure system in the mid-atlantic region. If this verifies and the ridge stays strong or gets stronger, it may force 92L (named system?) west into the peninsula aka Frances & Jeanne of last year.
I thought so my self.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:16 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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12z GFS appears (to my nonprofessional eyes) to be good news. Still doesn't develop the system and (if I'm reading this correctly) moves it out to sea.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:17 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I think this is going to end up being a track simular to Frances but i still dont know it a long wait out
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:18 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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SHIPS does take it up to 81 mph in 120 hrs
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:19 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I am not touching this one.If I say go have a good time and don't worry,and then something bad happens you will be mad at me.And,If I say don't go,and nothing happens,you will be mad at me.
LOL! Easy fix, if you tell me to go and something does happen you come up here and board up for me.....LMAO!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:19 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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i disagree..its way to early.
-- We don't want to suggest specific strikes.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:24 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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What is happing past 92L i think 93L look like not much but the wave behind it is a little better. My main question is what is happing to 92L it had a lot of convection the other day and now it dosent look to good.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:25 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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what maps ar eoyu looking at..the link por favor
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:29 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Quote:
SHIPS does take it up to 81 mph in 120 hrs
Can you show what exactly you are looking at?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:32 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Quote:Quote:
SHIPS does take it up to 81 mph in 120 hrs
Can you show what exactly you are looking at?
http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html
thats up to 7s kts in 120 hours,.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:34 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I think this season is going to be simular to last season hurricane florida got hit alot in the east coast cause of the high pressure not letting it go north if you guys think am worng than give me a reason why this season isent going to be simular to what frances and jeanne did. High pressure is pretty much where it was last season so this is my thinking that florida is going to get hit the most by august and september.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:35 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Which one of these plots should I ignore? Which ones are good?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:38 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I read differently about the Bermuda high and it basically said that some of the storms could get steered more towards the north, away from Florida. Northeastern Fla and Southern Ga could see some action, perhaps even the Carolinas. They even said the Northeast may see some action. At any rate, i do hope you are wrong about Florida getting hit like last year.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:39 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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def. ignore XTRP
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:40 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
I read differently about the Bermuda high and it basically said that some of the storms could get steered more towards the north, away from Florida. Northeastern Fla and Southern Ga could see some action, perhaps even the Carolinas. They even said the Northeast may see some action. At any rate, i do hope you are wrong about Florida getting hit like last year.
agredd
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:45 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
I think this season is going to be simular to last season hurricane florida got hit alot in the east coast cause of the high pressure not letting it go north if you guys think am worng than give me a reason why this season isent going to be simular to what frances and jeanne did. High pressure is pretty much where it was last season so this is my thinking that florida is going to get hit the most by august and september.
there has been frequent high pressure in the north east mid atlantic too, so its not like your te only ones, but i think its safe to say a hurricane will probably bit south florida this season, but again, only time will tell
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:49 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Looking at new data coming in and there will be more of a seperation of the trough by sunday into monday over the eastern U.S. Curently the TUTT low over the bahamas will move WNW ( instead of up the east coast) and get into the eastern gulf and absorbed into the trough over the SE U.S. and northern gulf over the weekend. The northern extent over New England down to the midatlantic will move out to sea and be replaced by a ridge over the great lakes. The same time A ridge will build westward from the Atlantic into the Bahamas and Florida by early next week pushing the southern trough over the N gulf to the NW gulf near Tx.
This will up the chances of the possible Tropical system to move westward thru the straits of florida or the peninsula by Tuesday. The ridge should hold on till weds or thurs before a weakness passes again thru the great lakes. This will turn anything in the eastern gulf NW-N by midweek. For Florida and the east coast of the U.S residents, any chance it has to stay out to sea would be determined by where the low does form exactly and how much of a NW movement on its WNW path thru the weekend. If its N of 25 N by 70W by Monday then it could meander till the great lakes trough picks it up. Or if it stays south closer to 22N and 75W by Monday then a path more into the gulf will be expected ( of course ). Anyways thats the scenerio. Chances of Florida and the Gulf 50%, meander off the bahamas 30% and out to sea east of 72W 20% .......................
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:57 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Nice job, Scott.I will REALLY start watching this system this weekend.If I understand you correctly,south Florida MAYBE under the gun with this one?Any ideas on our strong it will be at that time?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 05:59 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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im not sure if i believe this..i see no split in the high pressure over florida till thursday, by then the system will be heading up the east coast or going out to see.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:02 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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I get the same data that the NWS gets and they will Im sure post it anytime if not now.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:05 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Actually they have it posted up here for W-Central Florida discussions. Almost the same thinking. I dont know how to post articles on the front page to this message board though,,,so if someone else can do it or tell me then thats fine. TY.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:05 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Not to toot anyone's horn or anything but personally, I pay attention to what scotts
says. He is one who knows some of what he is talking about, rather than some
on here who are learning and just blurting out their own thoughts or Wishes
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:05 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I dont agree with u ryan i agree with scott
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:07 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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whatever im allowed to have opinions to people..
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:08 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Big Red Machine,
You're quite right the 12Z GFS doesn't develop it but keeps it a trop wave...these global models aren't real good at that...however, it doesn't move it out to sea..it puts it off the SE coast of FL..what's more important though is the Ridge to the north...it weakens due to a trough lifting through NE but looks like it's building back the last 12-24 hours of the model run
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:10 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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its all good. I like to hear everyones ideas. Some just wish the storms would hit but at the same time say I hope it dont come to me.. but its all good cause alot here love to see the storm but we dont want damage and deaths.
Anyways the area discussions are on the front page. West Central Florida has kinda what I said now and Im sure S florida and E Central will come out soon too.
scottsvb
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:26 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Thanks Ron, didn't see that. That's what I get for being a novice
Found this interestingEXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 31 2005 - 12Z THU AUG 04 2005
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PD...
AS FOR THE TROPICAL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE
BAHAMAS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH AHEAD OF THE
EVER-WEAKER TROUGH PROGRESSING THRU CNTRL CAN AND A DVLPG WEAKNESS
IN THE UPR PATTERN IN THE CNTRL/WRN GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT IF THERE WAS AN ORGANIZED TC...THAT IT WOULD
RETROGRADE INTO FL OR THE SOUTHEAST US SOMETIME BETWEEN AUG 3-5.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FL STRAITS THE 12Z UKMET WAS THE FARTHEST NE...
LEAVING THE SYSTEM JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. MADE SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THAT DIRECTION FROM CONTINUITY PER COORDINATION W/TPC...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:34 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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that was an intersting discussion
Edit - let's halt talk about specific location strikes please
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:39 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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The main vortex is near 16.5N and 57 W. The area to its NE is the midlevel low. You can see this clearly on close-up vis.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:44 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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what close up vis are you looking at?
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 06:59 PM |
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Re: 92L Track
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Interesting Discussion from Melbourne NWS on future of 92L:
MON-THU...BERMUDA RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG 30-32N WITH DRYING INDICATED
BY GFS DUE TO BACKING FLOW. SUBSIDENT REGION ASCD WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE BAHAMAS IS ALSO SHOWN DRYING OUT AIRMASS. WILL HAVE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL TC FORMATION E-SE OF THE
BAHAMAS. LATEST RUN OF GFS INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT OF RIDGE ACROSS N
FL FROM TUE ONWARD WHICH WL KEEP WAVE OR CYCLONE ON GENERAL WNW
HEADING THRU THE MIDDLE OF WEEK...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECM HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING ALL ALONG. STAY TUNED.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 07:03 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic *DELETED* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 07:08 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I live on the west coast of florida; 50 miles south of Tampa.......how significant is that to 92L?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 07:10 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Heck, even if the storm hits the east coast of florida it could be bad here.....last year the two systems that hit the east coast were so strong when they made landfall that the storm was still CAT 2 or CAT 3 when it went north of my area. Anyone have any ideas on 92L and it's intensity as it gets closer to the Bahamas?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 07:36 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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im thinking as it aproaches the bahaamas it could be a cat. 1 or 2 storm at most, what do other people think
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 07:38 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Well then if it crosses Florida like Jeanne did, then by the time it gets near Tampa, it should be weakened enough.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 07:40 PM |
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Excellent IWIN Discussion
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The Following Discussion was issued by Rob & Jason (and a tip of the cap to our budd, Kevin) over at IWIC...sums up the current situation pretty well:
"IWIC Worldwide Tropical Weather Discussion - July 28 2005 - 22:00 UTC
Tropical Storm Franklin has made a bit of a comeback today. Convection has flared a bit closer to the center and the cloud pattern has become slightly better organized. An additional 5-10KT increase in strength is very possible before the storm becomes carried northward by an upper trough. On this projected track, the storm should stay well offshore the US east coast.
A large-amplitude tropical wave, INVEST 92L, and associated broad 1013MB low is approaching 50ºW. The low is currently positioned on the southern end of the wave axis, however visible imagery depicts greater low-level curvature further north. Furthermore, dry Saharan Air is still wrapped within the wave, particularly on the northern side, which is keeping convective flare-ups to a minimum. Thus, the system still needs to consolidate more and enter a more unstable environment before development becomes an imminent concern. Having said this, conditions become increasingly more favorable closer to the Windward islands and all the way to the Bahamas. Oceanic heat content is high, coinciding with unseasonably warm sea-surface temperatures. Upper-level wind shear is on the low side, with the core westerly winds from the subtropical jet remaining well to the north. In fact, the latest CIMSS GOES-12 analysis indicates ridging is slowly increasing aloft the wave. Moreover, the influence of the Saharan Air Layer is lessening as it progresses further west. All of this data suggests that while the wave is far from being a classified tropical cyclone, further organization and increasing convection seems likely over the next few days. Given the extent of the environmental favorability where 92L is headed, a tropical depression cannot be ruled out within the next 48-60 hours.
INVEST 92L is moving generally west-northwestward. Global model guidance is rather converged on the projected track. The 12Z NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF plus 18Z GFS all show a continued west-northwest motion through or just north of the Leeward Islands over the next 48 hours and then passing in the vicinity of the Bahamas by the end of the forecast period. Once near the Bahamas on Day Six, models vary on the precise alignment and strength of the ridge weakness over the eastern US and the ridge itself. The ECMWF, usually a reasonable medium-range model, takes the system all the way into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Although it is somewhat of an outlier and no other model seems to show as intense of a ridge as the ECMWF depicts, it is worth noting the strong right bias in the model consensus for storms in this area during 2004 and early this season. The GFS slows it down in the Bahamas under supposedly collapsed steering currents, similar to what recently took place with Franklin the same area earlier last week, whereas the others show what seems to be a straight shot to somewhere along the southeast US coast beyond the runs' time frames. Development from this area is not a certainty, though the chance is very much there. IF this does consolidate and become a tropical cyclone, conditions should favor quicker intensification once in the Bahamas and we could be faced with a hurricane threat. "If" is the key word.
Behind INVEST 92L, another tropical wave and mid-level center is noted, dubbed INVEST 93L. This system looked very well organized for a brief time late last night but has since become weaker. First off, the wave is not high-amplitude like the one discussed above, thus making it more susceptible to unfavorable conditions. Convection is sporadic in nature and there are no signs of either a surface low or a ridge aloft. Although sea surface temperatures are warm, this system is experiencing increased shear from the upper-level anticyclone to the west. As this ridge continues to build aloft 92L, this hinderance may only worsen with time. Furthermore, 93L is under moderate Saharan Air Layer influence from the north and east. Global models are not aggressive on developing the storm; none show anything more than a weak low in the shadows of a stronger system over the next six days. It is possible that some slow development could occur once and if the system can achieve a low-level circulation, though even so, anything significant seems unlikely. The future track is a moot point given the low prospects, but if a storm were to develop it would likely follow west-northwestward on the heels of the wave discussed above.
Yet another area of convection has emerged off the coast of Africa, behind both aformentioned INVESTs. This has not yet been identified in association with a tropical wave, but is rather a result of the intertropical convergence zone. Today's runs of the GFS and NOGAPS indicate this will become a tropical cyclone in the forecast period as it too moves west-northwestward. No other model has yet shown any significant development, so there is not a convincing consensus at this time. One plus for this system is that it is at a relatively low latitude, which may prevent it from experiencing the core of the Saharan Air Layer. Since conditions are apparently not that unfavorable, this system will be monitored as it traverses the tropical Atlantic.
Some global models are hinting at increased low-level vorticity in the northern Gulf of Mexico on the tail end of a trough split in the next 4-5 days. None develop a true tropical cyclone, and any low that does form would probably have to work hard to make it to the surface, not to mention it would be a primarily baroclinic origination. This will too be watched, though nothing is expected at this time."
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 07:45 PM |
| Attachment |
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Prediction
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Tropical Depression in 12-24 Hours and tropical storm by 48 hours. Do you see the warm water this thing is going to run into at the current model runs. I think that 70MPH is a little conservative at 120 HRS.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 07:51 PM |
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Re: Excellent IWIN Discussion
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that is a really good discussion, thanks Phil.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 07:55 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic *DELETED*
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Post deleted...sent to the graveyard
Please refrain from this type of post, unless you are prepared to back it up with a source, link, model or other tangible proof...
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:00 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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nvm
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:12 PM |
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Re: Excellent IWIN Discussion
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It's too soon but I would like to hear JB's take on these developments. (92L and 93L and soon to be 94L)
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:15 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Ryan - This is meant to be funny, so.....with the new info out about the atlantic and how since 1995 it's been busy and will be for another 10-20 years, i'd say to tell your folks to stay put. Unless they plan on living here Oct-May.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:19 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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yea ill tell them to get a winter house..ill say your not allowed..haha that should be good
the thought of an active 10-20 years makes me cringee
| laxpimpj |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:20 PM |
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Re: Excellent IWIN Discussion
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This may sound dumb, but I am still relatively new to all of this stuff...
but...
How do they come up with the 93L, 92L, 94L, etc...
What is it couting up from? and the L?
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:23 PM |
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Re: Excellent IWIN Discussion
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maybe the "L" is for low pressure.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:23 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Don't quote me on that 10-20 year thing Ryan, but i read an article, provided by a user on this site a few weeks ago. It was a damn good article too...i can't remember who sent me the link on it; perhaps they will see this post and put the link out again. If they do, read it! It's full of very useful information about the tropics - past, present, and future. If the guy who gave me that link sees this, can you post it again?!
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:25 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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The reason i say 10-20 years is because thats what the article was saying. From 1970-1994 the atlantic was fairly quiet during hurricane season. From 1995 until ???? it's expected to be rather active. You have to see the article.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:26 PM |
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Re: Excellent IWIN Discussion
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The "L" stands for Atlantic. The numbers for invests are assigned from 90-99, starting out at 90 at the start of the year and looping back to 90 after 99. Why they chose those is uncertain, but it's partially to keep from interfering with any actual storm numbers.
| laxpimpj |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:26 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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"The reason i say 10-20 years is because thats what the article was saying. From 1970-1994 the atlantic was fairly quiet during hurricane season. From 1995 until ???? it's expected to be rather active. You have to see the article. "
are you talking about "the case against florida"?
EDIT:
Thanks Clark
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:27 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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ok
take a look http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html -->> was just updated, even tho it says 1 PM
which one is the best model on here http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:32 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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what do u guys think 92L invest is going to do
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:34 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Quote:
what do u guys think 92L invest is going to do
become a TD in the next 24-48 hrs and a TS in the next 36..i think it may become a minimal hurricane before the bahamas..then it will pass right ovr the Bahamas either into northeastern coastal florida or georgia, maayybbee the carolinas but i think thats looking a little less favorable.
what do people think about that statement i made
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:35 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Thanks Clark for the reply.
One more thing I'd like to see - it was mentioned before on here that there's been a trackable tropical system every day since July 1st, nearly a full month without a lull. What would it take to create a video clip (Javascript or even a huge GIF) of the basin over the course of the past month? Has anybody here been archiving, or could somebody link to an officially-run archive where I could patch something like this together myself?
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:39 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I am afraid to say that I do agree with you on this one.
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 08:48 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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I say Anywhere from Central Florida to the Florida Straights into GOM. I think is going to be a good one. Check out my attachment.... illistration of my explination....
| RyanRedCross1 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:00 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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Hey Nathan,
From Boynton Beach too.. work for the Greater Palm Beach Area Chapter Red Cross... so I'm watching this "probable" storm and it looks like a biggie...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:03 PM |
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Thought's on 93L...
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92L appears to have a bereft of moisture, convection, and is being steered westward under the influence of a large well developed cyclone over the NE Bahamas. A anticyclone is building to the west of 92L and marks the end of the Saharan dust. This will aid in divergence as the outflow jet builds NE of the system. The track of 92L is vague at best, some take the system westward while others turn recurve it, but with the fact that Typhoon Baynan recurved and a ridge east of Hawaii leads me to believe that a more westward track is favored. Also there is a natural bias to recurve anything in the long range by the global’s (gfs,gfdl, and tertiary models). Heat oceanic content is surely suffice to support development, with an area of anomalously warm SSTS centered around 26N 65W ranging from 29.5 C to 31 C (!). Certainly warm. Cyclone phase analysis doesn’t have much to say, with basically a WNW track over the next 48 hours becoming a depression, and organizing into a moderately symmetrical warm core system. Not much different from what we thought. Unfortunately too far out to assume anything, but I still think this will be a more Florida GOM threat then a CV recurver.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:12 PM |
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Re: Thought's on 92L...
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This is meant for 92 L not 93 L. Looked at the right disturbance for the analysis, but then changed it to 93L when I was proofreading. Sorry about that.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:21 PM |
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Re: Thought's on 92L...
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I don't think there is "one best model". There are some that do perform better than others throughout the season, but the input/calculations change before each season. Thus this early into the season, eventhough it's been busy, it's hard to say which one will predict the motion of this storm the best. Plus, the fact that it's not even an organized tropical cyclone makes it all the more difficult.
Personally, I can see it becoming a TS or even a hurricane, but it's still too far out to predict movement or even landfall.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:25 PM |
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Re: Thought's on 92L...
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Something to think about, Yesterday was the 2nd shark attack within a week at Daytona Beach.....
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:26 PM |
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Re: Thought's on 92L...
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And this means??????
besides stay out of the water lol
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:30 PM |
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Re: Thought's on 92L...
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They do say there is something to a Strom vs. where shark attacks happen.
Before Hurricane Dennis Destin had an Shark attract then PC had one, Also Emily there was an shark attack lower Texas... Guess you need to ask the sharks..
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:39 PM |
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Next Storm?
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THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST OUTLOOK HAS THIS FEATURE...WHATEVER STRENGTH IT HAPPENS TO MANIFEST INTO...PULLING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LIFTING ON A SLOWER PACE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY.
Welcome to this site my Boynton Beach neighbors, hopefully it's from the plug I gave this site in the newspaper.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:40 PM |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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leetdan -- you could probably scrounge up the images to do it yourself, as it's really not hard once you have the images, but therein lies the problem. You can get close (21 days into the past) using http://www.goes.noaa.gov/srcheast.html -- beyond that, it's likely off to one of the educational places or the NCDC GOES Browser, which is a wee bit hard to use.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:43 PM |
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Re: Thought's on 92L...
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Well it would depend on the type of shark, the breeding cycle, and lastly the water temp. I could see how people came to that logical conclusion, but there are over factors that might draw a shark closer to an area besides hot water.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:43 PM |
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Re: Thought's on 92L...
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Quote:
This is meant for 92 L not 93 L. Looked at the right disturbance for the analysis, but then changed it to 93L when I was proofreading. Sorry about that.
Keith
I was going to say I beleive the models has lost 93L since I have not received any model runs since the 28/06Z runs. I got the 92L 18Z runs but haven't got the 92L all day.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:47 PM |
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Re: Thought's on 92L...
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I know it was a stupid error of me.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:54 PM |
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New thread
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New thread up on the main page...let's head on over there.
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:57 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
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how ya doing? Nice to meet someone from the area... Got a feelling on this one... Not sure of direct hit though... will know more tomorrow..
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:43 AM |
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Re: New thread
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Quote:
New thread up on the main page...let's head on over there.
woot woot party in the new threadd
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 10:14 PM |
| Attachment |
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CV Tropical Wave
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I have attached a Visible image of what should be invest 95L. This almost looks better than Harvey LOL just kidding. Anyway what do you guys think post some links show some proof.
| WX Storm 2005 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 11:25 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: CV Tropical Wave
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Latest Scat 22:00 UTC