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The month of July is over, a record month, the first July ever to produce 7 named storms. And most of the entire month we were tracking a system or two in the Atlantic or Gulf. With some luck we'll remain relatively quiet for August. But right now we still have a few waves out to watch. The first, is the wave around the Bahamas, which is also known as 92L. This wave has been struggling for days to get organized now, and just hasn't. Conditions still aren't all that favorable for development, but it still could form later. The chance for development graph for this system 92L: Code:
It had some chances before, but it's still relatively low. The second is the wave currently in the Southeast Caribbean, this has the best shot at development, and is continuing to move westward. We'll have to watch this one later. This is also known as 93L. The chance for development graph for this system: Code:
fionally there is a wave in the Central Atlantic near the Azores, it's not likely for tropical development, but a subtropical storm forming is not out of the question. The chance for development graph for this system (Subtropical): Code:
We'll be watching this later as well as a few other hotspots over the next few days. Event Related Links StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands Caribbean Island Weather Reports Color Sat of Gulf RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms Wave near Bahamas (Aka 92L) Animated Model Plot of Wave near Bahamas (92L) Model Plot of Wave near Bahamas(92L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District) Wave in Southeastern Caribbean Sea(Aka 93L) Animated Model Plot of Wave in in Eastern Caribbean (93L) Model Plot of Wave in Eastern Caribbean (93L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District) San Juan, PR Radar Loop Wave in East Atlantic near the Azores (Aka 94L) Model Plot of Wave near the Azores (94L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District) |
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93L looks like it could become better organize later this afternoon and 92L has a slight chance |
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What are your best lat/long coordinates for 93 L? |
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Don't think so 93L not very heathly, no sign of a LLC... |
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It's good to finally not be tracking anything for awhile. I for one hope we all get completely bored during the month of August. Usually, during the last week of August and the first two weeks of September things get busy. We will see. |
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thank goodness nothing to report altho the mm5fsu is showin some activity about 120 hrs out .. man it is quite in here .. with no storms on our heals .. lol where did everyone go ? =P |
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Well, it wasn't off topic before a moderator edited it to say what that particular moderator wanted to read... at that particular time. I originally responded to a post asking "where is everyone". I was obviously joking when I wrote: "were still here... and hoping to get a chance to use those brand new hurricane panels." Then I asked a question about what I was seeing on the FSU MM5 and was accused by that moderator of wishcasting... wishcasting of all things. Couldn't believe it. Anyhow, I enjoy the site, but can you guys please come up with a uniform standard for all moderators to follow when deleting and/or editing posts? Speaking of editing posts, what's up with that? Why are moderators changing the body of posts? I would much rather have my post deleted than have someone change what I have written to what they think should be seen. You have to understand, I'm a person who expresses exactly what I think. I try not to cause you problems, but If I feel I'm being trampled upon, I'm darn well gonna let you know - respectfully of course. Ban me or put up with me - your choice. I'll still be reading. |
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Quote: Think everyone is taking a break and reloading for the next batch!!! |
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hahah maybe people will go back to doing thier "work" @ work now .. post were gettin crazy .. the fsu is the only model that seems to be picking up on anything as far as i can tell http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ =P |
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(off-topic post deleted) |
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92L looks like the Low level circulation is moving southwest? or to wsw? there is a low there! |
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The GOM spin-up on the FSUmm5 is from yesterdays run at 00Z. I would tend to discount the mm5 because it tends to suffer from multiple spurious lows from time to time - kinda like the GFS convective feedback issues. That's not to say it can't happen, but without other model support, it's less likely. What's more interesting to me is that three major global models (12Z GFS, UKMET,and CMC) are all developing some sort of Cape Verde storm that moves to about 40W in their 144 hr runs. |
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Storm thats the mid-upper low moving wsw that you see. The llc is trying to form near 24N and 70W just to its se. 93L died out as expect with the models. I expect our next name storm will come in 3 days from the Cape Verde islands. There is still the chance with 92L also. |
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You guys need to read the models carefully, and watch the Run dates, As for the models being on traget one needs to wait till you have 3 or 4 Runs showing the same path. Enjoy Guys. |
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Read latest local weather statement for west central florida (available on the front page). It says GFS & ETA models develop a tropical cyclone on Wednesday near the Bahamas. |
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i not sure but that looks like a low level circulation there, but my eyes may be playing tricks on me.... 24n - 70w low level or not? it is very sheared!!! what ever it is |
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Back on July 26.2005 I mention that that Sand/Dust may keep some storms from forming, looking at 92L and 93L there maybe some truth to Dust clouds helping to keep the LLC from forming along with Wind shear, Maybe 92L can get it's act together now that out of the Dust cloud field moving WN. |
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As of 1130am edt, the NHC has said all the waves are pretty much nothing and wouldn't be anything of concern.....where are you getting your information? I clicked a link someone had about a LLC, but other than that, what leads you to believe that 92 and 93L will still become a cyclone?? |
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I read that too, however you left out the part that said that if a cyclone forms, it will move out to sea away from Fla and the US.....if one doesn't form then Fla can expect some higher moisture, etc...but nothing to be too concerned with. |
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Can anyone please provide me with a good lightning data page for Florida??? Try this one: http://www.flamedia.com/light2.jpg |
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the LLC has been there for a good 18 hours or so. and shows no signs of going away quite yet. It's moving north, and if it can ever get some convection closer to the center, you might yet see something pop up. (there's always the possibility that the vortex could simply reform under the convection) 93L Really, I think it's pretty much 'stick a fork in it' done. 94L doesn't seem to want to hybridize. and with a cold front heading towards it, it should get knocked out of the picture fairly quickly. whatever is moving along at ~10N 53W is, as was pointed out earlier, trying to gain some latitude, but there are a lot of outflow boundries from collapsing thunderstorms, so... I would imagine there's nothing really going down there. -Mark |
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Mark. I agree with you on all of the above. Excepting 93L. Shortwave Sat from an hour ago is still indicating a ghost of a cluster just west of Grenada. Not a lot of convection present, but thin cirrus abound in a nice round area. Odd thing. This area west of Grenada has been indicating a disturbed area, off and on for the last 24-36 hours. Somewhat of a mini-wave after mini-wave moving through the area. 92L-Possibility exists of a second vortice NNE of the visible low-level vortice. It's really hard to tell, but I thought I saw a large circulation there. May be my eyes. Low level vortice was moving NNE toward the main area of convection. Maybe the whole system will move on out to the fish-spinner area shortly. |
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is there anything to this spinup of convection...looks to be East of Jax? We are getting some good stuff in Melbourne and I recall some conversations of a "homegrown" system developing......probably just summer storms but it is the tail of another front......just curious!! |
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Think that area is just a cluster of thunderstorms off Jax. I point your attention to the wave that has just exited Africa. This seems well defined on satellite, and the GFS & UKMET are developing this feature. I think we are about to start the CV season (the real McCoy). Cheers!! |
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Ok....I believe in what you say, afterall, you know more about this stuff than me, but why isn't NHC saying anything remotely close to what you guys are saying? They pinned all the waves 92, 93, 94 as goners.....you guys are seeing circulation, LLC's, convection, etc....i am totally confused. The NHC is supposed to keep us informed as they are the prime outlet (as this site's disclaimer says) for information. Is the NHC not telling us something or are you guys just totally guessing? I want to make some plans for the upcoming week. The NHC basically says to go ahead, it's safe. You guys are saying there is still possibilities these waves could turn into something worse. I am not doubting you guys or anything, but why is the NHC not picking up on what you are clearly seeing on radar and sats? well, you as the reader have to decide for yourself whether the ideas espoused by other forumers or the mods/admins here are on the mark. the nhc does a very good job sometimes, and other times they screw the pooch. the real advantage they have over anybody here is objectivity... on here we just tend to say 'it'll do this' or 'its going to get stronger'... and remain ambiguous about just how so. that and they understand things better, have better tools, albeit they don't tend to share reasoning as much as deliver dumbed-down for joe q public (and generic stuff for the newsies to cut and paste into their stories) forecasts. some nhc forecasters have gotten better about including reasoning into the discussions in the last couple of years. that's why everybody here tends to like stacy stewart.. even if he's a little gung-ho at times. -HF |
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What is August 1 the day of TUTTS (ULLs)? - Count 'em..the central GOM, east of the Bahamas, one near 30N-55W, and another at 30N42W...no wonder nothings developing in this cold core atmosphere..that's a lot of shear oh, I left one out -there's another one south of Jamaica http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html |
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Looks like some of Stacy's writing got cut off in first paragraph....the second sentence ends with a period, but makes no sense as written. Stacy---you listening?? MM |
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Well, what a boring week it has been. Though I guess that is a good thing. I see Navy has dropped 93L and 94L from their watch list... |
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Great article on the future of predicting intensity in today's Orlando Sentinel. One neat thing is that they are planning on the next wave of hurricane models to start testing in 2007. Here's the link to the paper's front web site. Couldn't get the entire link to work. http://www.orlandosentinel.com/ |
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just looking at waves and saying 'oh, that's our next storm' worked between the end of june and the 3rd week of july. since then the formula has changed.. the big expanse of no shear and broad ridging across the basin has broken down into the usual early season rabble of upper troughs. did a very small amount of research and found that mjo has activated.. the 5-day means show a strengthening dipolar anomaly pattern, with the westpac getting more favorable conditions and conditions worsening in the atlantic (particularly the eastern atlantic). soi has been negative (not strongly so), but it's more than a 3-5 day pulse and is increasing the westerly flow in the atlantic, pushing wave energy north and out along the strengthened upper troughs. mjo can activate and then wink out (like it had been from late may-early july) and may later in the season, but it looks like august will feature the feast-or-famine trends that go with mjo activity. the hurricane-enhancing anomalies will get here just as we enter the historically active part of the season (gfs has been showing more activity in the extended period)... it may take a week, ten days, two or even three weeks.. but when the negative mjo phase gets here later in august watch another flurry of hurricanes come swarming across the atlantic. the phase of mjo runs 40-50 days.. so one would expect 20-25 days of active/inactive at a particular location (though it doesn't ever work that perfectly). assuming the activation of the mitigating phase around july 15-20 (late in the life of emily), the arrival of the catalytic phase should take place somewhere between august 5-15. it'll help if soi goes positive in their sometime.. otherwise it could serve as a hangup and delay the switch. the eastpac is showing signs of life for the first time in a long time... watch for a storm out there to signal the activation of the atlantic about a week later. as for anything trying to eek through in the meanwhile.. if it isn't in the mid latitudes already or going north/northeast... it probably won't meet much success. activity in the deep tropics should remain suppressed this week. 92L looks better than ever in terms of having a surface circulation... a single exposed low poked out of the convection this morning and has turned NE towards the main blow-up under the narrow upper ridge just east of it... another low-level swirl seems to have peeked out to its north. the shearing upper low is diving sw ahead of it finally, upper ridging should build over the mostly stationary system and give it a chance to spin up. diving shortwaves moving off the east coast should keep it out to sea, however, if it does develop. still a small chance on the troughiness hung near the SE coast, nothing so far. should be a fairly quiet week, but things should be very different in another week or two. HF 2323z01august |
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They Navy only drop 93L, 94L is still active on list.. Dave |
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Quote: They are only showing 92L as active now. BUt I haven't received any model runs off it since 1/00Z. Wonder if the models has done lost it again? |
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Navy Navy web site.................. |
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Quote: This is the one I was looking at Navy |
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your site was not working. |
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This one: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Hurricane Fredrick 1979 did a bad link job |
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The site you list is running about 1hr to 11/2 hours behind the one I listed... |
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The demise of 93L as it approached the eastern Caribbean was just short of amazing.... it was a relatively strong tropical wave with good potential as it went through the islands and when it hit the area known as the graveyard for tropical development, which certainly was apropos in this case, the system just evaporated into thin air, literally... hardly any evidence that it ever existed tonight... off topic, here is a very excellent link for high quality sat pixs that I use.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/recentir.html |
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Thanks for the link Frank: Like I said back on July 26th, The Dust cloud may have played a part in the last 2 waves not forming very well, now that 92L is up and out of the Carb, it may do sometime. Don't think the NHC really taken into account the effects a Dust cloud could have on a system .... granted there also was a lot of shear that came into play.. |
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sorry to be off topic....HAPPY BIRTHDAY OLD SAILOR!!!....boy am i glad no storms...WOOHOO party time |
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I have attached an Picture of a wave. This wave seems pretty presistent and has a lot of convection with it. Do you think it has a chance? |
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Hmm, well, there is a huge SAL to their north and northwest. It might make it hard for them to develop. |
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What is mjo? |
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Just in.......NOAA'S new numbers are 18-21 named storms,9-11 canes and 5-7 major canes. WOW!!! |
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That reminds me , doesn`t Dr. Gray up date his numbers around this time? Any infro on that?????........Weatherchef |
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Even if the NHC's updated predictions are on the high side, looks like we're in for a bumpy ride the rest of the season. Stay prepared and stay informed. |
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Quote: Hmm - just a quick check of NHC and this is what I get: Code:
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Can you please post a link to that information? |
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Here's the link from the NOAA site. NHC 2005 UPDATED forecast |
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Harvey in the works: I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA) FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0600Z B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE C. 03/1330Z C. 04/0045Z D. 31.0N 67.0W D. 32.0N 65.0W E. 03/1700Z TO 03/2130Z E. 04/0500Z TO 04/0930Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT MM |
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Link is dead and I couldn't find it on NHC page.... MM |
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I got the numbers from CNN @10:00am.The web sites should have them up soon.That's alot of storms,folks. |
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Try this link: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Ok, oddly enough, it doesn't work if you just click on the link... try going to it manually (Edited to remove http code and make it something to copy and paste (which didn't work, it still automagicly made it a link... oh well at least someone else found the info...)) |
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I found it here http://www.physorg.com/news4351.html |
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It is amazing that they would even predict those numbers and more amazing they would publish them. The insurance speculators and agricultural interests are going to have a field day with those numbers. I hate to see what gasoline is going to cost since it is already $61.00 a barrel as of last news. I hope that none of those numbers effect the US or anyone. Hopefully these storms will not be bad ones and the major ones will stay at sea. |
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Oops! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html |
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I wonder what Dr.Gray has for us on Friday. Should be interesting......Weatherchef |
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Storm 18 would be Stan. Storm 21 would be Wilma. Storm 22 would be, I believe, Alpha (assuming that what someone posted about the convention for naming the 22nd storm a few days ago is correct). Amazing that the NHC's outlook raises a realistic possibility that we could see Alpha. |
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It's up on the NHC page now...what a bombshell. More storms than we usually have in an entire season...still to come. MM |
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Why does NHC (and others) refer to 2002 as a 'below normal' season...there were 11 named storms that season, which based on 1995-2004 is below normal, but still @2 more storms than the previous long-term normal ...Clark, HF? This seems to be a statement that has perpetuated itself but is not born out by facts....Lili was the last named storm that year. MM |
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Last paragraph in the new Numbers Article. 4. Uncertainties in the Outlook The main uncertainty in this outlook is the number of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes in the United States and the region around the Caribbean Sea. Although the conditions that produce hurricane landfalls are well known, they are very difficult to predict at these extended ranges because they are often related to the daily weather patterns rather than the seasonal climate patterns. It is currently not possible to confidently predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Historically, seasons with above-normal levels of overall activity have averaged 2-3 U.S. hurricane landfalls and 1-2 landfalls in the region around the Caribbean Sea during August-November. Given the forecast of above-normal activity for the remainder of the season, it is imperative that residents and government officials in hurricane-vulnerable communities have a hurricane preparedness plan in place. |
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wow. wow. wow. They must really be certain that things in the tropics are going to hit the fan in the next few weeks to issue that high of a prediction Yikes |
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We would need to average about one named storm a week, from now until the end of the season. That seems almost impossible. NOAA sure knows a heck of a lot more about hurricanes than I do. Does anyone know if they typically issue forecasts that are higher than the actual numbers? I don't want to sound lulled into complacency by this brief respite, but these numbers just seem impossibly high. |
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Well if you think about it, we are in our 8th week and the NHC is thinking we might have TD#8 with 92L so.... we might just make that |
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I guess we did have 15 storms after this date last year.... |
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If you look at the WV Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html and then look at the Bouy info just East of the low. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1 we do have a Westerly wind: Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true ) 5knts |
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If I remember right and I could be wrong, I think that in the 2003 season we had 5 systems brewing at one time. Looks like the next 3 months might show us the same. If all hell breaks loose, I hope its one at a time so we can regroup and face what ever the weather gods throw at us........Bottom line as the title says.....BE PREPARED !!!!!!...............Weatherchef |
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Quote: Not necessarily. A large quantity of the numbers are based on Climatology. With August and September being the most active months...normally. NOAA's Forecast, plus Dr Gray's Forecast, due out this week, should give us a better idea of what to expect. Under normal conditions. I've looked at Dr Gray's verification from last year. He was very close with all of his numbers. It appears that the only numbers that were off. Were the numbers related to the longevity of the storms. Named Storm days, Hurricane Days, and Intense Hurricane Days. This was probably due to the August- September, 2004 surge in long track storms. I'll have to see if NOAA has completed a verification of their Forecast from last year. |
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umm..... 92L, if it develops, is on its way out to sea... Right???? |
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Beach: That buoy is at 79.0, very far west (actually, southwest, I think) of the low associated with 92L, so it likely has nothing to do with the low associated with 92L. (And the NHC wrote that there is a weak low associated with 92L, so the fact that one exists would not be a revelation, anyway.) Are you referring to the rotation over Fla. visible in the water vapor loop, instead of to 92L? If so, I believe that's an upper level low, but hopefully one of the experts will chime in on that. (Actually, I just looked at the WV loop; the apparent circulation over Fla. is clockwise.) The light west wind at the buoy you gave the link for could be related to that feature, but likely is unrelated to any feature visible on that water vapor loop. Could just be a light wind associated with a storm or another transient weather feature offshore there. |
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yes newwatcher.. model plots are taking it out to sea... well, at least now they are |
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005 edited~danielw ATLANTIC OCEAN... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 76W. THIS IS JUST TO THE W OF THE FOCUS OF CONCERN...WHICH IS A CUT-OFF DEEP LAYERED LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 23N-31N WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N73W...A SURFACE LOW TO THE SW NEAR 25N69W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N68W THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml? |
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Just noticed something, if we happen to get the upper end of that forcast, 21 names storms, that will be using every name on the list, all the way down to Wilma. I don't think we have ever gotten past the "T" before. |
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Don't forget that last September we had EIGHT storms in that one month... MM |
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Joe Bastarti with accuweather says," The most action will be from Aug 15 thru Oct. 15th ( I mean duh) along the eastern seaboard.( another given). " I`m targeting the Carolinas for the worst" he says.And also THERE WILL BE landfalls in New England and the Florida coast....How the hell does he know where the storms are going to impact......Florida has a good chance, Carolinas fair chance, but New England??? That going out on the limb wouldn`t you say?....maybe I`m wrong, I don`t know..........Weatherchef |
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it's got a low near the convection (partially under the convection) and it looks like it's spinning pretty good (it's had some sort of low there for a good day now). How close is it to being a tropical depression? In otherwords, what is it missing at this point that keeps it from being classified? I think it's close, whatever it is... If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say presistance and perhaps a more hybrid like structure at the moment? Mets, feel free to tell me what I'm missing... -Mark Edited to correct the Latitude (put 28 instead of 23 because I'm a ditz and didn't read the numbers |
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Quote: This list shows the breakdown, by year, of the number of storms, and their classifications. According to the list, we had 21 named or numbered systems in 2003. Last name used was " P ". Includes 3 TDs and 2 Subtropical depressions. If I'm reading it right. http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/hurr/stormsummary.png |
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The Navy website now has 92L as TD-08. |
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It's official, TD #8 http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi Edit: Oops, guess I was a few seconds late. Sorry for the double post. |
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TD #8 has formed. http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi |
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geez. deleted due to being 10,000th poster to post the info sorry guys 'shana |
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*laughs* well then, it was even closer than close, And I'll presume that means it was missing nothing -Mark |
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This shot should answer your question. The Surface low is well SW of the convection. I would guess that shear is the main factor. The convection is being pushed NE of the surface part of the system. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005 (edited~danielw) ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 26N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 66W-70W.... IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N73W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 68W-76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. ( 4 degrees of longitude separate the lower and upper levels. That's around 240nm.~danielw) http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html |
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Which way is it moving then? Does not say. And it still does not say anything about a TD#8 on the NHC site....... |
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it will at 5:00 |
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Okay, thanks Phil, what do you think? |
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It's Moving toward the NE. NHC has NOT released anything to classify 92L as a Tropical Depression. They may release something just prior to 4 PM EDT. As of this time 1932Z- 3:32 PM EDT There isn't anything other than the NRL data to support the upgrade. |
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Looks like JB figures few of the future storms will get into the Gulf but rather track into the western Atlantic before making landfall along the eastern seaboard. Did he give any reason(s) why he's predicitng the areas specified for hits? Seems he's really going out on a limb. |
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In addition to NRL, the text computer model data for 18Z also shows the following: 000 WHXX01 KWBC 021840 CHGHUR DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082005) ON 20050802 1800 UTC Full product |
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Yep. That has Fish-Spinner written All over it. 54N 11 W. Hmmm That's got to be near the U.K. |
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TD08 sure looks like it's gonna get yanked out to sea by that trof... another view |
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Yep. If that becomes Harvey, it's not going to be a "Wallbanger" for the states. |
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I think with all the excitement of the new predictions for the rest of the year, your question got lost, and since I was also wondering, I will repost it. When posting in the discussions, what does "mjo" mean? Thanks. |
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When I typed mjo in a search engine, I found a number on entries for "Madden-Julian Oscillation" which I'm sure is what you're looking for. In checking the results, however, I was totally lost. Perhaps one of our moderators could provide a basic explanation for those of us without a meterologicl background. |
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Quote: sorry...here's a full description of MJO |
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Quote: See The Madden-Julian oscillation or MJO or Madden-Julian Oscillation or Google Madden-Julian Oscillation 'shana |
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Thanks for the information. |
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Quote: Question: Do you think that trof might be partially restricting an inflow of dry air from the east? |
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Yeah, fishspinner but NHC is predicting it will be a Tropical Storm by morning, though never a hurricane. -------- On a semi-offtopic question: Speaking of seasonal oscillations, know of any studies pertaining to weather patterns and periodic planetary axis wobbles? Also I'm interested in periodic solar storms/patterns of the same type. I just like patterns and haven't looked into this sort of thing with weather in about 9 years, and wondering if anything new's come out. |
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5pm advisory says TS by tonight. Quote: and an update at 8. 'shana |
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Forecaster Franklin has been showing his lighter side of late...here's a snippet from the TWD: This is also not the most tropical of tropical cyclones. However...the center is close enough to the deep convection...within 60 nmi...and the upper low to the southwest is far enough away to consider this system more tropical than subtropical |
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the interesting thing is that this is the wave that was east of the Antilles at the end of last month; that said, of eight systems, all have been of tropical origin so far also, NOAA is now forecasting 18 to 21 storms!!!!! |
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Quote: Probably the results of lots of inhouse kidding over the last storm |
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New Thread next door.... |