MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 02 2005 10:01 PM |
Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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10:30PM Update
Harvey has strengthened a bit out in the atlantic, it's now a 60MPH Tropical storm. Still moving well away from the US mainland. However, Bermuda is under a tropical storm warning and now a hurricane watch in case Harvey makes it to Hurricane status.
Beyond Harvey, we have a wave in the Central Atlantic. if it persists for a bit more, it has the potential, a potential higher than most recent ones, to develop into a Tropical Depression as well.
11AM Update
Tropical Depression #8 is now Tropical Storm Harvey, the earliest H storm on record.
Original Update
Tropical Storm warnings are up for the island of Bermuda, as Tropical Depression #8 forms. If it becomes Harvey, which is likely. It will be the earliest H storm to form in recorded history.
This is destined to be a fish spinner, other than a brief slide by Bermuda. 92L was the wave to win out, not the likely pick. All the other waves have gone away, for the most part. So this is the only action in the tropics right now.
Thankfully, ntohing else seems imminent at the moment, we'll watch the new depression spin fish.
Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Harvey
Animated Model Plot of Harvey
Model Plot of Harvey (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Central Atlantic Wave/95L
Animated Model Plot of 95L
Model Plot of 95L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 02 2005 10:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic
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NOAA now calling for 18 - 21 storms this season...WOW!
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 02 2005 11:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic
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Well, once we get a verified 8th named storm, we'll be over 1/3 of the way to 21, with the height of the season still to come.
I personally think we might have more, but then again, with all the building up, it wouldn't surprise me to see this season fizzle out with less than 15 storms either
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 02 2005 11:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic
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Wonder what's holding up the advisory... they said in the first one they'd have one at 8 pm AST ... which was 38 min ago.
Unless DST has confused me and it's 22 min till ..
Previous record for 8th named storm ... Aug 15.
'shana
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 12:14 AM |
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East Atlantic Wave
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From the 8:05 TWD:
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. A BROAD 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N28.5W ON THE WAVE AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD LOW HAS FORMED BASICALLY WITHIN THE ITCZ THOUGH THERE ARE ONLY A FEW TSTMS. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST WRAPS AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE
WAVE N OF 15N E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 24N. A MAJORITY OF COMPUTER MODELS INSIST ON THE GENESIS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS WAVE BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST FORMATION IS LIKELY ANYTIME SOON
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 01:36 AM |
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Re: East Atlantic Wave
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That certainly bears watching, but I agree that development, if any, will be rather slow.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 01:40 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:I guess they thought it appropriate since the season blew half of the original forecast in July alone.
NOAA now calling for 18 - 21 storms this season...WOW!
With the peak of the season still a few weeks away, things cold still get a bit dicey. On the other hand, the season may have burned itself out, but that doesn't seem to be climatologically feasible.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 01:58 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic
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AST (Atlantic Standard Time) is the same as EDT (Eastern Daylight Time). Also, GMT -4. EST (Eastern Standard Time) is GMT -5 when we're not on DST.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic
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Now With 8 there now, what do where do u think the next one will form is there any other disturbances out there?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic
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Slight chance for the farthest East wave to do something, but not for a few days, if at all.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic
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Ahhh ... I looked up time info and went by what they said for Bermuda which is GMT -3.... they're on ADT. Atlantic Daylight Time. Not AST. Thank you!
Wonder why they're using AST... hmmm. TD 8 must be closest to somewhere that's AST not ADT... Off to go check (early) for the 11pm report
and it's up!Quote:
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr... with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and the depression could become a tropical storm overnight.
Doesn't sound like they're quite as positive about seein Harvey tonight...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 04:38 AM |
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company
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td 8 finally popped out of 92L to keep us some company in the lull. seen comments about the mjo in both an nhc twd yesterday and on the accuwx tropical update, so it ain't just me thinking this break is temporary. the graphic the fill-in for bastardi put up today showed the enhancing anomalies working their way in over the next week or two and really setting up shop late this month. then noaa had to go put their forecast out ahead of gray... they're talking something 1995-esque. gray ought to be somewhere in their ranges (though he won't give spreads and percentages.. objective numbers). noticed the AP guys have bastardi's threat zones quoted in their article (saw it on fox and cnn today). i put more stock in his numbers than i do in that MIT guy saying hurricanes are getting stronger (flawed, limited data begets spurious conclusions).
not much to disco tonight. fish spinner should be harvey tomorrow. the hurricane hunter will probably find harvey tomorrow if a convective blow-up doesn't get it there via improved satelite appearance. it's in a very narrow support environment and vulnerable; the storm may prove tenacious as franklin did a week ago, however. the forecast track looks reasonable... should be a messy time in bermuda wed/thu. fine scottish weather.
that itcz low sw of the cape verdes has all kinds of model support, but i don't see it developing quickly or dislodging itself like the globals are showing. that thing may fester and work its way out... or may play possum for days. the eastpac features have perked up some, so that makes me think atlantic activity should start to reactivate in about a week... and be really cranking around august 20th.
two minor features. a convergence zone continues along the old frontal boundary/weakness under the ridge from east of ga to the central gulf coast. weak model support for low pressure in either of these areas lingering throughout the week. nothing indicates development, however.
HF 0438z03august
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 07:32 AM |
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Feature fun and goodness
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Well Good ole TD 8 is spinning away, Happily doesn't seem to be a threat to anyone but the fish.
What used to be 93L is trekking along popping up a line of convection, but nothing organized, but I might have to take the fork out of it because it has an opportunity to move into a friendlier environ. nah, leave the fork in it, it's done.
The coulda-woulda been hybrid is still spinning and popping up scattered convection near the center, Probably not an issue, but this year probably doesn't mean certainty. of course, it still has a shot because the water temps where it's located (32N 45W or so) are running a nice warm 26 - 27 degrees, so I'd give it a 1 in 5 chance or turning into something more at this point...
The only other feature, and I'm guessing it's an upper level low would be around 20N 55W so that's probably not going to be a worry anytime soon
Just thoughts on the other goodies out there...
-Mark
(IANAM so, take what I say with several large grains of salt...)
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 02:11 PM |
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Re: company
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Quote:
be really cranking around august 20th.
Great. I've rented a 64 person offshore boat out of port canaveral that day to raise money for the Salvation Army! I knew it was risky, but I thought I'd give it a shot.
If anyone wants to go, there's still room on the boat, just pm me.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 02:22 PM |
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Re: company
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Watch the wave SW of theCV begin to take shape today. Nice convection building up away from the ITCZ now. 'tis that time of year....almost. Cheers!!
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 02:31 PM |
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Re: Feature fun and goodness
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And then there were eight...
Quote:
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 4 Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 03, 2005
...Depression becomes eighth tropical storm of the season..
'shana
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: Feature fun and goodness
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Quote:
HARVEY IS THE EARLIEST-FORMING EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD. IN
THOSE YEARS THAT HAVE HAD AT LEAST EIGHT STORMS...WHICH IS ONLY
ABOUT HALF OF ALL SEASONS SINCE 1851...THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION
FOR THE EIGHTH STORM IS SEPTEMBER 29TH.
Wow, almost two full months ahead of the average. SSTs look rather low in the area, and as mentioned this isn't supposed to get much stronger than it is now.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 03:11 PM |
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Re: Feature fun and goodness
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.....And the records keep on falling. Let's just pray whatever else spins up over the season doesn't adversely affect anybody anywhere.
| MoparMitch |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 03:30 PM |
Re: Feature fun and goodness
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I am familiar with a lot of the lingo, but this kinda through me for a loop:
"A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1036Z INDICATED A LARGE AREA
OF UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS..."
What is meant by UNFLAGGED and FLAGGED winds?
PS - You may not have remembered, but I posted some comments (around the first week of June) about the correlation between an active Tornado season and an active Hurricane season. Either this is a fluke or it may have some truth to it. I am very aware that there are about a thousand other factors, but I will continue to document this and see if it holds true for future seasons.
Although I do not post very often, I greatly appreciate your work here!
Mitch...
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 03:43 PM |
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Re: Feature fun and goodness
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Have to go with a copy/paste since this came from a pdf...
"A range check of realistic wind directions (0 to 360°) and wind speeds (< 40 m s-1) is also performed. This latter check may highlight realistic extreme winds; thus, WOCE-MET personnel visually verify all flags added by the automated quality control.
Visual inspection of the data, though time consuming, is essential. The analyst adds flags for spikes, known instrument malfunctions, discontinuities, and values that are highly inconsistent with the surrounding trend. This latter contingency requires knowledge of the behavior of wind data from vessels and is subjective. Automated tests for discontinuities and spikes are available (Vickers and Mahrt 1997), but we find visual inspection to be adequate. Based on 82 ship months of automated meteorological true winds, the two-level quality control applies flags to an average of 5% of wind speeds and 6% of wind directions. On some vessels, the visual inspection determines that all true wind directions and speeds are incorrect. Removing or correcting these flagged true wind values is essential before performing any application using the data.
The two-level quality control employed by WOCE-MET has proven invaluable. For two of the four vessels reporting all values necessary to compute true winds, the visual inspection allowed the analyst to determine that the platform wind direction was reported opposite the desired meteorological direction."
Unflagged sounds (based on the above) to be removal of flags from data proven to be correct. So if it is flagged because it may not appear to be accurate, unflagged means it has been verified correct, or not subject to any known model/scan bias.
Any mets want to correct this?
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 04:22 PM |
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Re:Flags
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The flags in question for Quiksat relate (primarily) to rain contaminated measurements vs non contaminated. Quicksat readings are 'contaminated' by rain and are therefore unreliable in those cases, for wind speed readings.
NHC and the analysis agencies much prefer to use unflagged (uncontaminated) sectors for wind readings.
MM
This is a very short and truncated explanation of this quality control parameter...anyone else wants to jump in, feel free!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 05:17 PM |
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Re:Flags
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Harvey looks pretty good on visible this morning.... ULL looks to be weakening some, Not a threat to US except the shipping routes in NE atlantic.... The wave near 12n and about 28w, i think could be the next area of interest for the atl. Nice flare up convection this morning. Been holding together since exit off the cape. We will have to see. Should continue moving west and be near the islands in a 2-4 days. Think this is the wave the models were picking up on (GFS and few others)
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 05:33 PM |
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Random Wacky Question
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Quick and easy, Harvey is looking more and more subtropical to me, I know that occasionally storms go from sub tropical to tropical. what happens if the storm takes on a sub tropical appearance, would the NHC decide to start calling it Sub tropical storm Harvey? I'm just curious if something like that is possible.
-Mark
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 06:25 PM |
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Re: Random Wacky Question
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Harvey a bit stronger than they thought
THE FIRST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INDICATE THAT HARVEY
IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A
MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 999 MB AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
62 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INTENSITY OF HARVEY IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH.
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 06:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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Duplicate removed
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 07:34 PM |
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Re: Feature fun and goodness
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Quote:
I am familiar with a lot of the lingo, but this kinda through me for a loop:
"A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1036Z INDICATED A LARGE AREA
OF UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS..."
Is that for the disturbance by the Cape Verde Islands?
No -- that was from an earlier discussion on Harvey. --Clark
Edit CaneTracker: Thanks Clark for clarifying that.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 07:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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Don't have much time to add anything -- been out of town and am now fighting off food poisoning -- but will add this little bit...
* Harvey is dubiously a tropical cyclone, but is trying to become more and more tropical through time...sort of what the NHC has been saying all along. The intensity is somewhat of a surprise, but it is likely a storm like Franklin -- a shallower storm with the strongest winds at flight level also reaching down to the surface. It has a decent window for some strengthening as it accelerates out to sea, like Franklin did, but should ultimately meet cooler waters. It's probably here for a few days, though.
* There's no 95L on it yet, but at this rate, we will have storm #9 within the next day or two. Already with a pressure of 1008mb and convection all around the center, the area of low pressure S & SW of the Cape Verdes continues to become better organized. Look for 95L to be designated later today -- if it doesn't go to TD 9 -- with strengthening likely thereafter. The system should continue west for a few days; beyond that, its track will be influenced by how strong it becomes and how much of an effect Harvey has on eroding the subtropical ridge as it moves eastward. There's a good bit of model support for this one.
* Bill Gray is calling for 20 named storms now, in line with NOAA's forecast of 18-21. I don't see much of a reason to disagree with that if the activity of the past two seasons continues. The conditions are certainly ripe for something, and HF's call of thnigs breaking loose soon meets with agreement here.
* Not going to discuss the Kerry Emanuel article in Nature about storm intensity and global warming other than to say that there are limitations within the study that need to be corrected for and that, once again, Chris Landsea's comments are the ones best suited for the task.
More if I feel better in the next day or two...
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 07:42 PM |
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Re: company
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I like storms like Harvey.
Smiall, fairly insignificant and most importantly Moving NorthEastward in the Open Atlantic.
Welcome to August.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
What do u think of that It looks like it should be a invest by now I think Maybe even a TD but I'm not the best at this can some one give me a indepth anynalist on this sorry if I spelled stuff wrong.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 08:58 PM |
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east atlantic
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thanks for the link. it looks nice.. good, have to wait and see
(hate writing that wait and see thing but can't tell the future yet so..waiting)
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 09:28 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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Read this "NONAME":EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO
CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 96 HOURS
ALONG MORE OR LESS THE SAME LATITUDE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 28.5W...AND
IN CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W.
I think it will be a couple of days before it becomes a depression. If it forms early it could be influenced by an ULL in the middle of the Alantic that would pull it more poleward.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 09:42 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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Hi guys,
well just had my first oppurtunity to have a look at Harvey on the visibles, and i nust say i havent seen a system looking like this for quite some time. It looks quite subtropical in nature, as NHC stated yesterday when it was classified. It is giving a real good go at looking like how a tropical cyclone should look though, and if that convective activity over the LLCC continues, it should look a bit better
Not sure what the conditions have been like in Bermuda today, but they have been affected by the large curved band removed from the centre and located in the eastern semi-circle. If Harvey organises enough, i think we will see him make it to minimal hurricane intensity, probably around the same time it passes closest to Bermuda. From then on out it looks likely to carry on across the Atlantic over this weekend.Just also had a very quick look at the wave / low over the east-central atlantic. I think this has a day or two to go at least, before being classified as anything - not organised enough yet really, but showing the signs!
Kind regards
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 10:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
Read this "NONAME":EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO
CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 96 HOURS
ALONG MORE OR LESS THE SAME LATITUDE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 28.5W...AND
IN CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W.
I think it will be a couple of days before it becomes a depression. If it forms early it could be influenced by an ULL in the middle of the Alantic that would pull it more poleward.
Hi, just curious, do you have a link to this info?????
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 10:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:Quote:
Read this "NONAME":EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO
CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 96 HOURS
ALONG MORE OR LESS THE SAME LATITUDE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 28.5W...AND
IN CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W.
I think it will be a couple of days before it becomes a depression. If it forms early it could be influenced by an ULL in the middle of the Alantic that would pull it more poleward.
Hi, just curious, do you have a link to this info?????
Its from the 2 pm Tropical Weather Discussion.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 10:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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OK, never mind. I watch the NRL all the time and was afraid they has assigned "NONAME" to this system!
Thankfully Harvey is a fish killer. But I'm afraid the one you're referring to has all the potential to become a very deadly Irene. The stars, wind, SSTs, etc. are all aligning perfectly to start August off badly.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 11:02 PM |
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Wave *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 11:14 PM |
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Wave
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Yeah - that one off Africa looks impressive.
Over Panama to the Yucatan, is that the remnants of 93L flaring up as it moves into the Pacific? Or is it just normal evening thunderstorms?
| RyanRedCross1 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 11:17 PM |
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Wave
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Do you have a link for that sattelite Ron? thanks
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 11:32 PM |
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Invest 95L
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NRL has 95L up.
95L
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 03 2005 11:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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Nice to "hear" from you. It's always good to have another viewpoint.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 12:03 AM |
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Re: Invest 95L
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Scatt Satallite suggests the low is to the northwest side of the convection.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 12:24 AM |
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Re: Invest 95L
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Quickscat data indicates closed low and IR sat loop indicates that this is on the verge of at least being a depression in my opinion....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_1.html
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 12:39 AM |
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sooner
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i didn't think we'd see anything try to crank in the eastern atlantic. that's acting up either in spite of generally negative conditions or maybe the mjo suppression is lessening. 95L had enough model support but i and everybody else who commented the other day didn't expect anything this soon. even nhc said the models development of the feature was questionable. but there it is... bulging off the itcz with strong convergence at the surface and divergence aloft... the upper trough ahead of it seems to be sliding west (seeing as the TUTT feature that was chopping up harvey has broken down and the tendency is to replace it). this defies my timetable of nothing this week, things starting back late next week through mid-month. of course the beneficial conditions seem to not be doing much in the westpac.. one typhoon presently after two or three storms as of late.. and now there's a centpac depression and a persistent disturbance in the eastpac that's almost out the window. i've got a hunch it will do more in the atlantic.
so anywho... here's the take: harvey entrained a bunch of dry air thanks to that upper low jamming all of its subsidence into the storm's core. harvey looks subtropical, but is really just a choked tropical system. it was probably at tropical storm strength overnight or even yesterday afternoon... multiple centers or no. should move very close to bermuda and they'll get a squall or two in the core, some gales.. then harvey drifts on by and gets caught and yanked out into the north atlantic over the weekend. trough trailing behind harvey will have to be watched, but probably not do anything.
95L has the look we like to talk about. lots of low level convergence and an increasingly discrete low pressure area bulging off the itcz. there's a convective pulse gaining on the low from the rear and a trough-low in the itcz a couple hundred miles to the southwest... all of this should keep the development pace slow to modest... 12-24 looks good for a depression and 24-48 for a storm. systems forming this far east usually recurve and this one probably will also. several of the globals show it going up between 50-60w next week. how much of a weakness harvey leaves and whether the 500mb ridge builds with it off africa could determine whether it stays more to the south, but i'd just as soon call it a fishspinner.
i've noticed that late period gfs depicts a strong subtropical ridge across the atlantic... follow ons may get further west if this verifies. i'm uncertain as the ncep extended forecast indicates strong ridging in the central/eastern u.s. (which implies troughing somewhere off the east coast, usually). latter half of august is probably going to be hectic.
HF 0039z04august
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 12:51 AM |
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Re: sooner
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At the rate we are going, the storms will have names before they leave the African Continent. Hopefully they will all get swept up to the north before making it to the 50W. I just as soon have a record year of named storms that did not bother anyone. The first 7 were plenty.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 12:52 AM |
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Wave
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Quote:
Do you have a link for that sattelite Ron? thanks
Sorry for the delay - u may have grabbed it from other posts but here is the euro SAT - its only on 6-hour intervals
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:04 AM |
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Re: sooner
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95L first NHC Model runs, ships being it to a cat 1in 96 hours not sure about that yet..
95L
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:13 AM |
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Re: Invest 95L
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Interesting that the global models are sorta split on the path of 95L. NOGAPS, which has the best track record so far this year, builds a fairly strong Atlantic Ridge to the north of the storm and takes it due west on a more southerly track while the GFS and UKMET recurve toward the northwest at about 50W, following weakness left by Harvey.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:26 AM |
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Re: sooner
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I'm with you, Gup. May they all be fish spinners and not bother anyone anywhere. I had my fill of playing "duck and cover" last year.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:29 AM |
Re: sooner
|
Hank, thank you in advance for all your postings, from a long time lurker.
I wonder if the relationship to the position of this storm and where Ivan formed last year could give us any type of climatological basis for any clues to the path of 95_L???
I know that conditions are different, but many of us in Florida are paranoid now about every storm forming anywhere south of 30 degrees N.....
if i had to make an early comparison on this thing i'd cross it between alberto 2000 and frances 2004.. assuming it gets going. how much of a wake harvey leaves and whether nogaps or gfs/ukmet/euro are on the ball will also factor in. i'd say the track is too far to the north based on what usually happens. climo favors this thing recurving, though, if it develops east of 40w. by the way, don't want thanks.. this is a hobby related to my study/potential career. -HF
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:32 AM |
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Re: Invest 95L
|
The best track record so far this year so far has been the FSU MM5 follow by
NOGAPS , The last FSU run still shows it turning north. Think if it develops fast then then it will take a Northern path slow may be close to East coast.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:56 AM |
|
Re: Invest 95L
|
Actually, much as I'd not like to say it because we run it, the FSU MM5 hasn't done well on track or intensity this year. It does well for genesis -- even overdoing it sometimes -- but it's best left to other models right now for track and such. You're probably thinking of the FSU Superensemble, an entirely different product, which is up there with the NOGAPS on track forecasts.
NOGAPS keeps the disturbance pretty weak, potentially contributing to a more westward motion. It actually doesn't show nearly as favorable conditions for development in the middle-range, so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out. There are obstacles ahead of this disturbance, making the ultimate call on what happens a factor of whether or not the ridge moves with the system and provides for favorable development conditions.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:08 AM |
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Re: Invest 95L
|
Wonder if 95L will be a TD tonight? Looks very impressive this far out in atl... Looks better than harvey on sats, but i haven't looked at the surface too much yet. I am not sold yet on there being a much weakness from Harvey left over and if the subtropical ridge builds up with the atlantic high, well more records could be on the way. I just looked at the Meteosat-7 Infrared Satellite Data and appears there may be one or two more waves fixing to come off africa and then maybe a break for a few days.....
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:09 AM |
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Re: Invest 95L
|
My fault I was thinking of FSU Superensemble but typed MM5, guess at 77 not as sharp as I use to be. Being an old Navy man used NOGAP and the model before NOGAP, I did find NOGAPS does have a bias in early Runs even at Sea we use to see that a lot It tends to put to much into a High with a left bias..
Dave
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:18 AM |
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Re: Invest 95L
|
Navy had 95L at 20kts-1009mb on sat scans at 2300 on 2005.08.03....with SSMI sat.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:23 AM |
|
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Re: Invest 95L
|
well not tonight
TWOAL
----1030 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2005 ----
....A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:33 AM |
|
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Re: Invest 95L
|
Looks like the best wave coming off Africa I've seen so far this year.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: sooner
|
Quote:
95L
Got a quick question for Old Sailor: I've seen things these model graphics at SFWMD linked to before, but I can't seem to find anywhere at the site where they list the model graphs they have, so unless someone posts a direct link here I can't get to them. Got a URL? Thanks!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:37 AM |
|
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TD in a day?
|
NHC released their 11:00 TWO a half hour early:
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:46 AM |
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Re: sooner
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The SWMFD does the plots infor on model runs are supplied by a number of Colleges, USF Penn State, Wisc U. etc the listed modle runs as below
000
WHXX01 KWBC 040038
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050804 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 0000 050804 1200 050805 0000 050805 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 29.3W 12.7N 31.4W 13.2N 33.8W 13.8N 36.5W
BAMM 12.3N 29.3W 12.7N 31.5W 13.0N 34.0W 13.5N 36.7W
A98E 12.3N 29.3W 12.6N 31.4W 13.0N 33.8W 13.6N 36.5W
LBAR 12.3N 29.3W 12.5N 31.7W 13.0N 34.7W 13.8N 37.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 0000 050807 0000 050808 0000 050809 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 39.0W 16.0N 43.2W 17.5N 46.8W 19.8N 49.9W
BAMM 14.1N 39.3W 15.1N 43.6W 16.7N 46.8W 19.4N 49.4W
A98E 13.8N 39.4W 14.9N 44.3W 15.2N 49.2W 15.1N 53.6W
LBAR 14.4N 41.4W 15.6N 48.1W 15.0N 53.2W 19.1N 51.3W
SHIP 52KTS 61KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 52KTS 61KTS 65KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 29.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 27.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 24.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
Dave hope this helps
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: sooner
|
I was refering to a list of the plot graphics they had actually. Can't find it on SFWMD's site anywhere. (Even did a google search with site: defined!)
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: sooner
|
SFWMD web site doesn't show much but if you looking for all there model runs check web site below.........
SFWMD MODEL RUNS FOR ALL ACTIVE AND INVEST
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 12:27 PM |
|
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Re: 95L
|
95L look organized pertty good. I Say we will have a td by the days over or tommorow morning?
04/0530 UTC 12.4N 31.5W T1.0/1.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean
T1 25 KTS 29 MPH
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 12:42 PM |
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Re: 95L
|
Does look like its getting its act together this morning......Weatherchef ..... web page
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 12:45 PM |
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Re: 95L
|
Ya look like it should be a td soon But is could head south or be a fish spinner but we will have to wait till it forms to know anymore.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:38 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
5:30 a.m. NHC says a tropical depression could form later today...95L. What do you guys think?
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:41 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
I think that is really possible. It looks like it strarting to spin on IR but i'm not sure wouldn't surprise me if we see it today or tonight I would be really suprised if 95L didn't devlop. Also can someone give me a Satellite view of africa.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Here is the Africa SAT
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/metsat7ir.html
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Thank for the sat it a good one. Doesn't look like to much over africa?
Also I just watched the tropical update on the weather channel and they said that it look like it was Intensifying and it very close to td.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Quote:
5:30 a.m. NHC says a tropical depression could form later today...95L. What do you guys think?
Looking at the Vis Loop on Floater 2, I would say we should have TD by the 5:00 PM.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 01:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
I have this wrote above but though i would write it with some other stuff
I think that is really possible. It looks like it strarting to spin on IR but i'm not sure wouldn't surprise me if we see it today or tonight I would be really suprised if 95L didn't devlop. Also the weather channel said it was intensifying and said it was very close to a td it could form very soon also it has t-number of 1.0 the last time i look and that is 25 knot wind which is 30mph. It could form I say from the next couple of hours to 36 hours but I am sure it going to devlop.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Yes, I think this will be classified by tonight. No real rush though, as it is way out in no mans land with the exception of ships. Think this will miss the trough tail of Harvey and will have to be watched down the road; at least this one or the one behind it (further to the SE). Dr. Gray's numbers (updated) are amazing. Never seen him go this high before, as stated in his update. Love this sentence "This is valid methodology provided the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past." That is the crux of it. "We have no reason for thinking that it will not," is added, but it is by hindcast skill that makes predictions possible. What lies ahead
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 02:31 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
The models on 95L are telling us that a weakness will develop between the two Atlantic Ridge Axes and the system which will develop, will be pulled north in the next 72 hours...the only way it does not do that is if it remains weak and disorganized for the next two days and then develops which will bring it west further and under the western ridge and then it will have a more western solution...
As for the increase in numbers: it is essentially the earlier number plus what has occured adjusted for what normal activity in the early season should have allowed...Tropical Storm Risk will update on the 7th and I am interested in their update as much of the final evaluations will be based on the July patterns as they actually developed.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 03:03 PM |
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|
95L looking really good on visual...
|
Really spinning up out there. Starting to get some good ventilation on the west side. And there is a definite cyclonic turning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 03:17 PM |
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Re: 95L looking really good on visual...
|
I would say it is a TD by now I'm suprised they haven't called it yet on NRL or anything else.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 03:21 PM |
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Re: 95L looking really good on visual...
|
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 575 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE
FORMING AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
Yep so i Guess that they will have advisorys tonight
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 03:24 PM |
|
Re: 95L looking really good on visual...
|
The latest picture posted on NRL a visual suggests to me it is not classifiable yet...the banding features especially on the west and south are not all that clear yet...looks like banding is trying to begin on the north...maybe by 5 p.m.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 03:34 PM |
|
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Quote:
Also the weather channel said it was intensifying and said it was very close to a td it could form very soon also it has t-number of 1.0 the last time i look and that is 25 knot wind which is 30mph.
The last reading I found was 11:00UTC(8AM EDT?), and it was T1.0/1.0(25kts/29mph). Looks like it's trying to get its act together more and more though. Like others have said, seeing some decent circulation, and once it gets to about 40W the water starts to warm up just a bit more.
| SC Bill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 03:56 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Sorry, I must have missed this somewhere. Where are Dr. Gray's updated numbers??
Thanks.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 04:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
on the main page you will find the link
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 04:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
Sorry, I must have missed this somewhere. Where are Dr. Gray's updated numbers??
Thanks.
Published dates for update of Dr. Gray's forecast.
"We will be issuing seasonal updates of our 2005 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on Friday 5 August, Friday 2 September and Monday 3 October 2005."
When published it can be found at
web page
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 04:51 PM |
|
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
GFDL brings this wave to Cat 2 strength in 5 days.
I don't see where this northward turn is going to come from. All of the models that predict it, predict Harvey will stall out in the mid atlantic.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 05:05 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Have to agree with you canetracker. The 12Z GFS and even the CMC and the 6z GFDL are pulling it nothward for a time, but it misses the trough that Harvey drags across. It really doesn't get much further north than 22N at any point (waiting for the rest of the 12Z). tHE 6z gfdl is intersting 'cause it shows a NW turn, then a move back to the WNW at the end of the period. NOGAPS doesn't show this feature at all really. CMC 12z now shows it heading toward the tail of Harvey then stalls as a ridge builds in and seals off the trough, not allowing 95L to escape. Now if 95L misses that trough, it will have to come westward, as I believe the GFS' depiction of another trough on the east coast may be bunk, as ridging should be building near Bermuda. BTW, there wants to be another system further south than 95L that is shadowing it on the GFS. Starting to get interesting. This is the first bonifide CV system this year, August 4, 2005, in the year of our Lord. Cheers!!
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 05:21 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
The NOGAPS had not initialized at last check. We shoukd wait until it does AND until the system develops further before debunking the globals. I do agree that leaving a closed system behind Harvey does not make much sense. Not all the models have picked up the system now coming out SE of this one. More data in the next 12 -24 hours should clear these things a bit.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 05:34 PM |
|
Re: clasification of 95L
|
95L is now showing developing convection north of what appears to be a LLC and no longer is looking so broad...banding is more noticeable and it continues to consolidate...I think it will be classified in the next discussion. Movement is almost due west.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 05:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Quote:
Have to agree with you canetracker. The 12Z GFS and even the CMC and the 6z GFDL are pulling it nothward for a time, but it misses the trough that Harvey drags across. It really doesn't get much further north than 22N at any point (waiting for the rest of the 12Z). tHE 6z gfdl is intersting 'cause it shows a NW turn, then a move back to the WNW at the end of the period. NOGAPS doesn't show this feature at all really. CMC 12z now shows it heading toward the tail of Harvey then stalls as a ridge builds in and seals off the trough, not allowing 95L to escape. Now if 95L misses that trough, it will have to come westward, as I believe the GFS' depiction of another trough on the east coast may be bunk, as ridging should be building near Bermuda. BTW, there wants to be another system further south than 95L that is shadowing it on the GFS. Starting to get interesting. This is the first bonifide CV system this year, August 4, 2005, in the year of our Lord. Cheers!!
Yeah, I agree with your assessment. One difference I think I have noticed in the global models is how they handle the departing of Harvey..The CMC & GFS don't want to move out the storm quickly to the NE like the NHC track or NOGAPS. Instead both of these models as well as the UKMET want to meander and trap Harvey in the center of the Atlantic ridge and not scoot him off to the North Atlantic, thus creating the weakness that allows 95L to move more northward into. While the CMC/GFS solution is possible, my bet is with NHC & NOGAPS that Harvey gets picked up and wisked away to the northern latitudes. It's interesting that the GFDL has trended more W-NW with 95Ls track from its earlier 00Z run. My bet is that the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds after the departure of Harvey and 95L takes a more W-NW course.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 05:59 PM |
|
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
it seems that we may indeed have a tropical depression by the end of the day, likely at 5pm--i seem to have found the LLC and it is just to the east of the main convection, between it and one of the bands
the interesting thing is that on July 29 several of the models (NOGAPS, MM5, UKMET, GFS) were picking up on a low pressure area in the eastern or central Atlantic, and developing it at 96hours, which would be August 4(today)
This (95L) is probably that system
Harvey looked earlier like it may become a hurricane, but it looks now, with teh center starting to become exposed a bit, that it has likely peaked in intensity
does anyone else find it odd that out of eight storms, only two were classified as hurricanes?
does anyone else think Cindy and Franklin may have been hurricanes for a brief time?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 06:18 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Don't many of the major hurricanes originate from the waves that come off of Africa which is one of the reasons the more major storms are usually seen in August and September? Seems unusual we had two major hurricanes so early in the season. Tropical storms seem to be more common in June and July.
I know in this area we have a tropical storm that usually forms in the Gulf in June/July hit every few years. Wind doesn't seem to be too much of a problem but flooding always is. We haven't had a direct hit from a hurricane since '86.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 06:25 PM |
|
Re: clasification of 95L
|
95L is looking better all the time.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 06:51 PM |
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95L
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Well, It's looking better and better on visible imagry, You can see some definate banding features starting to build up. I fully expect the NHC to call this a depression at 5PM (of course, now watch it fizzle). If I'm seeing the cloud features right, I think I can even see a easterly wind in the southern quadrant, I'd eyeball it around 12N 33W.
-Mark
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 06:52 PM |
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Re: clasification of 95L
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There is stll some openness on the SW side which may be the only flaw in classification
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:01 PM |
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Re: clasification of 95L
|
Where would be the first place to check to see if 95L has been reclassified as TD9?
'shana
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:02 PM |
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Re: clasification of 95L
|
Newest Dvorak still at T1.0/1.0. NHC addressed the differences in the forward speed of Harvey by the various models in the 5am disco.
"UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH ACCELERATES THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS NEXT TROUGH...HOWEVER...WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AMPLITUDE SO IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO CAUSE A BIG INCREASE IN HARVEY'S FORWARD SPEED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN THE EARLIER RUNS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE U.K. MET AND GFS...WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN MY FORECAST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDL...WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER."
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:08 PM |
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Re: clasification of 95L
|
According to the Navy is should by TD9 at the 5pm advisory
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:23 PM |
|
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Re: Future Irene
|
If this comes to fruition than the future Irene may very well become a fish spinner, right?
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:26 PM |
|
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|
12Z NOGAPS
|
I'm new to this but is the NOGAPS 12Z run at the FSU site out to lunch? I believe it has 95L fizzling out. Am I reading the model incorrectly? Did someone load in the wrong data? Or what?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:31 PM |
|
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|
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Quote:
does anyone else find it odd that out of eight storms, only two were classified as hurricanes?
does anyone else think Cindy and Franklin may have been hurricanes for a brief time?
Actually, I was thinking that myself off and on for a while, My theory for Cindy was that the NHC didn't want to upgrade when it was obviously landfalling and the possible cost and hassle of evacuations were too great to really justify calling it. I expect it'll be a hurricane in the post analysis.
Franklin on the other hand, who knows. I just don't think they had enough information to pull the trigger.
But yeah, I really didn't expect to see all the storms either hold below hurricane intensity or really ramp up to some pretty fierce levels.
Seems kinda odd. But
we have the rest of the season to have things kinda normalize.
-Mark
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:35 PM |
|
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Naw, it (nogaps) is not recognizing it. It’s wrong. MM5 is picking up on some screwy things as well, like a deepening system forming just off the coast around New Orleans and continuing to deepen through the southern states (?).
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:38 PM |
|
|
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
|
Quote:
Naw, it (nogaps) is not recognizing it. It’s wrong. MM5 is picking up on some screwy things as well, like a deepening system forming just off the coast around New Orleans and continuing to deepen through the southern states (?).
I saw on another post one of the NHC maps and it also has a Low forming off the coast of La. So the MM5 may be right for a change. Just have to wait and see
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:46 PM |
|
Re: 12Z NOGAPS
|
NOGAPS keeps in touch with the system out to the end, but doesn't do much with its intensity...it seems to be keeping it more toward the northern islands. It is unsure of what it is dealing with I guess.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 07:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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NRL site is now referring to 95L as "NoName." NHC will be reporting at 5 PM
Michael
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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looks pretty healthy!
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/index.cgi?page=items&ser=109562&large=1
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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hey everyone i'm back from montauk
i was expecting there to be at least one named storm out there..well at least harvey isn't a threat to the US...
gray's new forecast is gettin worse..im not feeling it
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:20 PM |
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Re: Future Irene
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Quote:
If this comes to fruition than the future Irene may very well become a fish spinner, right?
Still a bit too early to tell. Have to see how Harvey impacts the surrounding environment, and just how strong 95L gets as it crosses the Atlantic.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:21 PM |
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A little bit of everything
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From what I have been seeing over the past 8 frames of the visible loop over 95L, it is rapidly intensifying and consolidating. It should be classified by 5 P.M as our 9 Tropical Depression of the season shattering the previous record for the earliest 9th system. There are three possible tracks for this storm, the most unlikely one is for it to miss the weakness between the Bermuda ridge and continue eastward. The next one would be for it to continue westward and miss the weakness once again but still recurve before hitting the united states as a large surface trof/ULH dominates the SE. The most likely track, and the track that I think will occur will be for it to recurve between the two ridge's and be pulled out to sea. This agree's with the typhoon in the west pacific teleconnection rule. The track will be dependent on how fast the storm organizes, and the strength of the upper level features, but these can only be determined with time.
Harvey is under some moderate to strong shear, and is pulling ENE at 10 kts. A track similar to Georges seems to be the case. Bermuda was and is the only area of land affected by the storm, and at best had minor damage. Harvey should continue to pull out to see with the longwave trof, and transition to extratropical by 96 hours.
I agree with NOAA and Dr. Gray’s increase in numbers as they agree with the overall decade pattern and analogs. MJO will be a big factor in determining the quantity and severity of the storms in August as overall basin shear is low, and SSTS are anamously warm throughout (except some minor upwelling over the CV region). MJO has also become trackable, and it’s affects are seen in the recurving typhoon in the west pacific and the disturbance in the central pacific. The track of these storms at this time seem like they will recurve, but all these precursor’s seem to be lining up at the right time for development and affect on the U.S.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:21 PM |
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09L NONAME
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NRL / FNMOC now lists 95L as 09L.Noname... looks like we have our ninth system of the season guys,
| zmdz01 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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The NRL site now has 95L as 09L.
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
looks like I was slow in posting, sorry for the double post
Marcus
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
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And the Cape Verde season is officially open for business...
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:29 PM |
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Future Irene (and Jose?)
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Well, the boards will be abuzz again as the 9th depression makes its way to the western atlantic region. We have a few days to watch this thing with awe before looking at the stats to tell us where it may impact. Until than I intend to enjoy this formation (and the one to its SE).
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:35 PM |
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Re: Future Irene (and Jose?)
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New Thred up - - TD 9 LIVES
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:35 PM |
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Re: 09L NONAME
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005
..AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC...
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Future Irene (and Jose?)
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Forecast to become a hurricane in 72 hours.