MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:33 PM |
Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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8:30 AM 5 Aug Update
Tropical Depression Nine is holding at its current intensity, and probably will remain a tropical depression today becuase of the water temperature.
The best future track keeps it moving generally westnorthwest. Beyond that, it is still most likely to turn out to sea thankfully, but this is not a sure thing. We'll still have to watch it if it does not. Try back in 3 days or so to find out more.
Read the blogs for more discussion.
Original Update
A rather large distrubance in the central Atlantic has now formed into Tropical Depression 9. Yet another record for earliest in a single season.
I don't expect TD#9 to strengthen too much in the Short term. Once it becomes a tropical storm, it will get the name Irene. As food for thought, each of the last 4 "I" storms has been retired -- Iris, Isidore, Isabel, and Ivan -- but of course, each storm is unique in its own right. It will be worth watching as beyond a few days it has the chance to reach minimal hurricane strength.
The track takes it generally toward the west, with a turn more towards the north likely in a few days. How much the ridge builds back in behind Harvey will be key as to whether or not the future Irene recurves harmlessly out to sea or turns back more towards the west. Currently, I see more that would suggest it would move out to sea rather than become a true threat to land. However, this far out, we'll be watching for the persistance with the system. Clark has more on TD 9 & Harvey in the Met blogs below.
Plenty of time to watch this one folks, and I'll keep looking for ways to keep it away from land, which I see plenty of now.
Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Harvey
Animated Model Plot of Harvey
Model Plot of Harvey (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
TD#9
Animated Model Plot of TD#9
Model Plot of TD#9 (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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SHIPS brings it up to Hurricane Status in 72 hours as does the NHC.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Yes, now TD #9. Too early to really call. Currently moving west at 14 mph. She'll be born to a name by tomorrow. I wouldn't close the books on her yet (out to sea). I see the models coming around to a more westerly track, given the ridge pumping up, which you can see the flow of to the north of the storm. How far west is the question. NHC stated that the second trough moving in towards Franklin would flatten/die out and hardly accelerate him to the NE, so that begs the question as to how he (or the second trough) affect 95L? IMO not a whole lot. This TD or whatever could get north of the eastern Caribbean islands and stall as steering currents weaken. So it may be up to whatever comes along late next week to determine where this one ends up. Anyone's guess at this point.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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all you can do is guess.The offical track has it going NW so do most models but on here its no fun to say it looks like it is going out to sea so im sure many people with there flair for wanting a storm to hit the U.S will be coming on with there WEST jogs and south Jogs or any Jog that keeps it going away and being boring.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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I'm pretty much with NHC's 120 hour track...give or take a little with that line. But I'd say that things are really wide open after that.
FWIW, the 12Z GFS has backed off with a turn northward. Instead, it shows what would be "Irene" missing the low pressure areas and turning westward.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_l_loop.shtml
Interesting that last night, somebody on this board brought up a Frances (2004)/Alberto (2000) comparison for TD9. I think that is a fair comparison.
After 120 hours, we *could* see forecasts that show a westward turn. This really wouldn't surprise me. I just don't know if the trough/Harvey combination will be far enough south to pick Irene up and finish the job.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:54 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Kevin -- I'm about 50/50 on that turn right now. It all depends on how fast Harvey gets out of here, how much of a weakness is left in the subtropical ridge, and how strong the future Irene gets. A turn like Frances could happen, or it could recurve harmlessly out to sea -- I don't know, and I don't think the models will agree on it for some time either. I do believe, however, that the storm will likely miss the islands to the north, probably by a fair distance.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
all you can do is guess.The offical track has it going NW so do most models but on here its no fun to say it looks like it is going out to sea so im sure many people with there flair for wanting a storm to hit the U.S will be coming on with there WEST jogs and south Jogs or any Jog that keeps it going away and being boring.
Going to have to respectfully disagree with two things from that post:
1. "all you can do is guess." Guess as in wild guess? Nah...better to make educated guesses. Where Irene goes after 120 hours will come into clearer view through the weekend. Just remember: with modelling, generally, the trend is your friend.
2." but on here its no fun to say it looks like it is going out to sea so im sure many people with there flair for wanting a storm to hit the U.S will be coming on with there WEST jogs and south Jogs or any Jog that keeps it going away and being boring."
Contrary to that statement, I would not say this board is loaded with wishcasters. I'm sure there are people in Florida who had their belongings damaged badly by canes last year. Those people want another storm? Yeah right...
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 08:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
Kevin -- I'm about 50/50 on that turn right now. It all depends on how fast Harvey gets out of here, how much of a weakness is left in the subtropical ridge, and how strong the future Irene gets. A turn like Frances could happen, or it could recurve harmlessly out to sea -- I don't know, and I don't think the models will agree on it for some time either. I do believe, however, that the storm will likely miss the islands to the north, probably by a fair distance.
50/50 looks about right...i'm sure that even pro mets would have a hard time justifying one solution over another at this point. it's just too early. looking for trends is the best way to go.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 09:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Agreed...and that's why the NHC forecast is pretty conservative on motion and track right now, too. It keeps it largely moving WNW, then between WNW and NW, through 5 days while maintaining the intensity at minimal hurricane strength beyond 3 days, as they often do. My only concern is on intensity...the waters NE & N of the islands have some of the highest heat content in the basin. Once it touches those, the intensity could perk up there -- assuming favorable upper-level conditions. We have plenty of time to watch for that, however.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 09:07 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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As far as if it is going to hit the U.S all you can do right now is guess and not wild but a guess.
As far as wishcasters oh ya there are some you watch when they post here forcast about it going to a certain place in the U.S and then it turns out to sea they go away till a turn comes back.I have read this forum a long time and as with every site there is always wishcasters and they will be out no matter what NHC says.
Just read back to the Dennis posts to see them they are there.
The point is the NHC does not go and make predictions more then 5 days out and even then the margin for error is great so how can ANYONE right now say anything for down the road but wait and see.
You can't make a prediction now about 7-10 days from now as the NHC can't even but watch the people will be out in force soon with the francis posts and the watch out east coast of Florida posts.
Is it just too boring to say well guys lets check it in 3 days from now and se whats up.
Nope that would be boring so the uneducated predictions will come.
You want one from me that will come true? like most i cant be wrong.
Well it has a 50/50 shot at either going out to sea or going west and hitting the U.S.
Well im a forcaster now huh? im going to be right 1 way or the other.
Since kevin already responded to your post below, i will simply remind you that attacks, however 'innocent,' on other posters will not be tolerated. Let's keep the tone civil.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 09:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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The storm could be pulled more to the north at mid ocean and then as the weakness snaps shut and the high builds in it would end up going west again .. beyond the five day for now.
Have to wait and see. It's a big storm though and a good part of it is anchored to the south. It already has a nice tail as well as a concentrated center.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 09:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
As far as if it is going to hit the U.S all you can do right now is guess and not wild but a guess.
As far as wishcasters oh ya there are some you watch when they post here forcast about it going to a certain place in the U.S and then it turns out to sea they go away till a turn comes back.I have read this forum a long time and as with every site there is always wishcasters and they will be out no matter what NHC says.
Just read back to the Dennis posts to see them they are there.
The point is the NHC does not go and make predictions more then 5 days out and even then the margin for error is great so how can ANYONE right now say anything for down the road but wait and see.
You can't make a prediction now about 7-10 days from now as the NHC can't even but watch the people will be out in force soon with the francis posts and the watch out east coast of Florida posts.
Is it just too boring to say well guys lets check it in 3 days from now and se whats up.
Nope that would be boring so the uneducated predictions will come.
You want one from me that will come true? like most i cant be wrong.
Well it has a 50/50 shot at either going out to sea or going west and hitting the U.S.
Well im a forcaster now huh? im going to be right 1 way or the other.
First of all, we're not even talking about any landfalls. We're talking about the *possible* motion trends after 5 days. Nobody mentioned any landfall locations.
To make another point: sure, I'll give it to you...wishcasters can be found on most all weather message boards. I don't think it is an absolutely huge problem on this board though.
There's nothing wrong with waiting to check up on the system in a few days. The wait and see method is just one way that people can watch storms. At the same time, some people actually enjoy speculating on where a storm may track in the long run. As long as the speculation is not totally left field, I believe it is appropriate for these message boards. Once again, calling a landfall point for TD 9 would be left field at this point. Speculation on motion after 120 hours without making a landfall prediction? That is probably okay, as long as acceptable reasoning is provided.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 09:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Where have you been LoisCane?
good to see your post.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 09:52 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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I'm disliking the extended outlook path of the storm up here in MD. Taking a trendline out from the last 2 days of the 5-day brings it into the mid-atlantic. Hope it goes fish spinning.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 09:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
As far as wishcasters oh ya there are some you watch when they post here forcast about it going to a certain place in the U.S and then it turns out to sea they go away till a turn comes back.I have read this forum a long time and as with every site there is always wishcasters and they will be out no matter what NHC says.
Hey guys, what are the chances of TD9 hitting SE Florida, specifically the southern half of Jupiter, on the morning of Saturday the 13th, between 8am and 1pm? My family's having a yard sale and I need to know if they're going to be hit or not!!
But seriously folks... as huge as TD9 is, the last few IR frames shows a compact flare of convection over the 'center'. What sort of Dvorak numbers would substantiate christening Irene?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 09:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
reason: bad post
why..it wasnt bad
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 10:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
The 13th? You're doomed!
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 10:08 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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After 120 hours, the 12Z GFDL builds in a 1024 mb ridge off the coast of the mid-Atlantic. I'd expect this ridge to elongate and sink slightly south to "fill-in" the weakness left by Harvey and join up with remaining Atlantic Ridge to the east. Kevin mentioned this earlier and it has some support from the long-range GFS. I would expect a more westward motion after 120 hours but it still has a lot of ocean to cover before even threatening the US. But, at this point, I'm leaning more toward it getting in the western Atlantic then recurving north up the middle.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 10:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Let's enjoy the growth spurt of TD9, and see where she goes (Irene?). Let's enjoy discussing the sciences and logic behind these systems which attracted me to this site.
I enjoy you guys!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 11:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
After 120 hours, the 12Z GFDL builds in a 1024 mb ridge off the coast of the mid-Atlantic. I'd expect this ridge to elongate and sink slightly south to "fill-in" the weakness left by Harvey and join up with remaining Atlantic Ridge to the east. Kevin mentioned this earlier and it has some support from the long-range GFS. I would expect a more westward motion after 120 hours but it still has a lot of ocean to cover before even threatening the US. But, at this point, I'm leaning more toward it getting in the western Atlantic then recurving north up the middle.
i agree with you on the northward turn...somehting for all the coast to watch tho
what do other people think?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 11:16 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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It is a nice storm to watch, isn't it? Quite impressive at this time.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 11:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Wow. The 18Z GFS is a trip!!!!!!!!! Do a loop on that. Takes 95L to about 300 miles east of JAX then heads it into the DelMarva. Mean whilst, the trailing Jose goes through the Caribbean turning NW over western Cuba into the SE GOM!. All the while having several other storms develop. I thought I clicked on an old model, but no, its the 18Z GFS (for what its worth). One big signal though; it shows a lot of potential activity!! Cheers!!
MJO, baby. -HF
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 11:42 PM |
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HI...wait for J
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18z gfs has future irene near 22/58 in 144hrs... thats in the east coast strike window. that's very un-gfs-like... whatever happened to up and out east of 60w? later runs are getting rid of harvey and rebridging the subtropical ridge. nhc's 5pm advisory looked more like earlier runs with nw movement in the extended range. if the 00z runs are trending west the forecast track will go to the left. as mentioned this sucker is 10-12 days out if it's going to run across.. so lots of time for changes and tweaks and for the fairy godmother to go medieval on it.
harvey i'd say has more than a minimal chance at scratching hurricane strength. its convective organization has continued to slowly improve since it started looking purely tropical yesterday. it'll never get the call unless an eye structure starts to show, though.
the weak low near the mouth of the mississippi is the interesting side note today. there's a broad/sloppy gyre in the area, persistent mostly diurnal convection, and some weak anticyclonic ridging to building in the area. since it isn't moving a whole lot one good convective burst could get a more focused vortmax in the area.. and get the ball rolling. most globals have been showing a weak low in the area migrating inland over the weekend.. there probably isn't time for a spin up.
wave behind future irene has mostly gfs support, but some of the other globals are tracking it. most keep it separate from the lead system and track it.. keep it on a low trajectory. it'll take days to do anything... modest chance it tries something.
should be busy all next week with irene.
HF 2342z04august
addon--some of the vorticity tailing SW of harvey might serve as a focal point as well. lots of the models that were trying to keep harvey stuck east of bermuda for days may have been hanging on to whatever gets left in the wake. -HF 2346z04august
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 11:52 PM |
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Re: HI...wait for J
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it would be interesting to compare names; the last time we had Irene (1999) it was very unpredictable (although in a different place)
it hit Key West 12 hours after the 36hr forecast had it hitting Cedar Key
and it followed NONE of the model paths
Irene 1999
My forecast is along the lines of NHC, although i think it will go further south, and their forecasts tomorrow will probably show that
a track similar to Hugo in 1989 or Felix in 1995 (without all the looping) are highly likely at the moment based on the model runs and all
I expect we will have Irene before 5pm tomorrow, and a hurricane before Saturday afternoon, and *POSSIBY* a Cat III by the end of the weekend (i give no certainties past 3 days, just what i think is the most likely out of several scenarios that may play out)
I will not get much more specific on the track until this has been around for a few days--there is still a possibility, although very small, that this could simply dissipate within 36 hours (that is usually the point in time at which it is certain, for me anyway, if something will hold together or not)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 11:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Steve, where's the GFS show that far into the future? At 144h (6 day) it's still well out at sea, though I have to say, it does look like its heading my way
GFS is definately showing Jose? behind it and a pair of strong systems moving into the eastern pacific.
Direct: http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
Source: http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:00 AM |
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td9
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I would not place confidence in the models this far out in time. Give it at least until Monday before focusing attention on trends.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
Wow. The 18Z GFS is a trip!!!!!!!!! Do a loop on that. Takes 95L to about 300 miles east of JAX then heads it into the DelMarva.
I believe that should read...
Into North Carolina, south of Cape Hatteras. Not the DelMarVa.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:17 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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here's the model run for GFS showing the ridge building strong enough to keep Irene going west
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
sry forgot the link
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:28 AM |
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GFS Runs
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Looking at all the models.
GFS. Run to run is Not consistant.
8-20-05...00Z has 850mb Vortmax located at points between NC/ SC Border and the SE GOM.
Depending on which run you use.
04/00Z-off Melbourne
04/06Z- Nothing at 850mb
04/12Z-Off NC/ SC Border
04/18Z- SE GOM
Will have to wait and see what the 00Z runs tonight indicate.
However, The GFS does indicate that a Tropical System will be active on August 19th at sundown.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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GFS Long range
East Coast storm and a possible GOM storm right behind....
here goes a record season next week and half.
18 GFS slp Image
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:35 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
What sort of Dvorak numbers would substantiate christening Irene?
2.5 translates to 40mph I believe. Latest numbers I saw were T1.5/1.5.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:36 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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Daniel - am I reading the UKMet (25N by 50W) and GFS (20N by 60W) 144 hour models runs right that, at 144 hours, we'll have a very, very large cain in the Atlantic?
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:45 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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You people need to stop and think, GFS has been all over the place last few runs, meaning GFS doesn't have handle on the TD yet, nor does most other models, once , we get 3 runs where the same projection with in range then you can start to buy the models...
Dave
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:53 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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You are correct sailor. The thing I really wanted to point is that there are strong signals of a lot of activity in the next couple of weeks. Where 95L may go I'm not sure. Its kinda on a downward cycle now, but there is much potential for development in the tropics according to some of the Globals.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:53 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
Steve, where's the GFS show that far into the future? At 144h (6 day) it's still well out at sea, though I have to say, it does look like its heading my way
GFS is definately showing Jose? behind it and a pair of strong systems moving into the eastern pacific.
Direct: http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
Source: http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
i wouldnt say its headed anyones way yet, i believe that this could make landfall anywhere on the east coast, if it doesnt turn out to see...also, if i lived anywhere from florida to maine i'd watch Irene
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 01:08 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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Think you are right Steve there more systems waiting in the pipe line, but right now all eyes are on TD9, latest NHC runs, lets see if they can repeat again and again.
Dave
TD9 Latest Models Run
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
GFS Long range
East Coast storm and a possible GOM storm right behind....
here goes a record season next week and half.
18 GFS slp Image
There are two items that are missing on that projection.
The Low in the SE GOM is a 1000mb Surface Low. Read probable TD>TS.
The area in the Atlantic does Not have a closed isobar at the surface.
Read probable Tropical Wave.
Steve, the UKMET at 144hrs. I'm counting 24m/s (45kts) of wind at the 850mb level. And the wind barbs on the eastern side of the vortice at 850mb indicate 45kts. This might?translate to a Tropical Storm at the surface. The pressures are too high for a Major Hurricane. 1000mb or higher at the surface.
This location is based on the ridge breaking down, or developing a weakness.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 01:11 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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dont acuse me of wishing for storms or anything, all im saying is i get a bad vibe from this one(Irene)
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 01:15 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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Wasn't acussing you of anything just saying you all need to stop and think about things, I been around Storms in both Wpac and Epac for close to 50 years at Sea. Seen it all in my life time..
Dave
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 01:19 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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no sailor im not saying you were accuing me im just saying i dont want anybody to read my post and think im storm wishing.
sorry for the mis understanding, ryan
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 01:40 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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I thought a m/s was equal to 1 mph, no?
meter per second -HF
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:13 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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It's best to wait and see what the next few days brings with TD#9.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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1 m/s is about 2.237mph. Straight-up conversion...3600 seconds in an hour, ~1600 meters in a mile; multiply by the 3600 and divide by the 1600. Thanks to Mark/Bloodstar for correcting me on the meters vs. yards in a mile issue.
The GFS is showing why we don't use 16 day model runs to forecast tropical cyclones. You'd be much better off going with climatology at that rate...truthfully, beyond 7 days you would be. Just watch it for now and don't worry about what the long-range says: there will be plenty of time to prepare should it become necessary.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:11 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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The storms keep on coming. Seems like there is never a break of more than a day or two. Climatology says normally by August 4th we have had only 1 storm and no hurricanes until August 14th. WOW!!!!
(off topic material removed)
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:16 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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She looks good so far.I quess our little break is over.And it looks like more are behind it.Here we go again.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:34 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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I got a bad vibe too when I walked out to my car and read the first three numbers/letters of my license plate...95L.
Seriously, if Depression 9 was to reach the U.S. coast how many days before that would happen?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:39 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:45 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Yep Ralph.
-----
Just a note, Gray's updated seasonal forcast is out:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/aug2005/
It's dated Aug 5th, but given that's not for another 15 minutes, I guess he released it early
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:06 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Edit: the post I replied to has been sent to the Graveyard. But, the points I make towards the storm maintaining itself stand and, unless another moderator feels the need to move this post as well (which if so, by all means go ahead!), I'll keep these comments here. --Clark
Ralph, you could be right. This storm could dissipate, or it could move north (or reform north). They can find the center -- they just don't know if it is elongated or not right now. That's partially because you can't see through clouds, we don't have visible satellite imagery overnight, and the microwave imagery can't necessarily see the surface reflection.
However, there is a lot of evidence against that.
1) Model guidance to this point has been consistent in tracking an entity across the Atlantic. Just because some models in one run do not does not mean that you or anyone should jump on that bandwagon. As someone said earlier, it is consistency we are looking for with the models.
2) Models for systems well out in the Atlantic (and for tropical cyclones in general) often do not capture storms very well during their formative stages, due in large part to their formative nature plus the lack of data out over the oceans. Despite all of the satellite & remotely sensed data we have available to us nowadays, a lot of it does not get input into the computer models due to computing power restrictions & the uneven spacing of the data causing havoc with the models. Further, there has been many a storm in the record books that was not accurately captured by the model guidance at some point(s) in its lifetime. These include many of the strongest storms out there. An overwhelming majority of the models called for this storm to develop and they have been right. Time will tell as to what happens from here.
3) The NHC guidance is for a hurricane in three days. They are the ones getting paid the big dollars to make forecasts, the ones who make key decisions to help protect life and property, and the ones who have been doing what they do for many years. They will get one wrong every-so-often, but it is rare to see these storms behave in such a fashion towards dissipation.
4) All trends for this disturbance have been to keep taking it to the west-northwest and to have it become better organized. Given favorable SSTs, a developing outflow pattern, and organization about the center of the convection, what is going to keep it from developing? The NHC cautions that it may occur slower than forecast initially, but that -- in their eyes and in mine -- only delays the inevitable.
5) Climatology says that storms in this region develop and that they don't dissipate. Given above normal climatological parameters and the aforementioned favorable conditions, there is currently no reason to go against climatology.
6) As they develop, weak systems often undergo many bouts of reformation and hiccups in the development process. Emily was a case of this occurring, all the way through the Lesser Antilles. Interestingly enough, a weaker storm at this point is going to travel more towards the west, making it an even greater threat to land down the line than if it develops sooner.
7) News often does go by the motto "if it bleeds, it leads." Despite that, something bad happening is going to draw more attention than something good happening. People want to know what is going on and then how to protect themselves from it occurring to them. They want to know the news of the day, and unfortunately we live in a world where crimes are prevalent. I don't know where you are, but where I am and in all of the locations I have ever been, there is always time in the media -- TV, print, Internet, radio, and otherwise -- for good stories. They just don't carry the same weight as the others because they don't affect as many people. Take that as you may.
8) No one is hyping this storm to be the next big storm. In fact, the reactions of many here today have been subdued. It is one to watch for future development. It has the chance to impact land down the line -- it also has a chance to go out to sea. We don't know yet. The models can't tell us yet. Simply put, it is one to watch over the next week.
The tropics have impacted many, many people over the past year, past five years, past fifty years, and as such, people are always going to be interested in everything out there. We will watch it to see if it develops, if it dissipates, whatever...but people are always going to be talking about it. That's what this forum is for and why we are all here. I apologize if you happen to disagree with that mantra.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:16 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Hey everyone from here in Megalanta...lol
Looks like after the brief but albeit needed respite from landfalling tropical storms and flooding, looks like we are in for an interesting 2nd week of August.
Off topic a bit but of note is a story in today's Atlanta Journal Constitution about Ivan last year and how there was a 91 foot wave recorded.
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/science/0805/07waves.html
It'll probably be in other papers today or over the weekend but an interesting read. Take care everyone as I'm dodging lightning bolts here in Atl right now.....
Jeff
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:20 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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The thing is there are post ALREADY talking about a poss hit on the east coast of Florida 6 days out.
I have no doubts this is going to turn into some type of storm and i dont think its going to disapate but people talking aready about where it is going to hit is insane.
You cannot say Florida is more in line for this storm or New york but what gets me is many people dont have a clue like some of us about storms and they hear some idiot say 6 days out WATCH OUT JACKSONVILLE some people are so in fear they leave 5 days ahead of time.
I know 2 people who left my area cause they READ a storm was coming this way only to run right into the middle of it anbd get killed.
So im kinda sensative when people start A week ahead of time forcasting where they think it might hit.To say the Est coast US is in danger of this storm is stupid casting its worth waching but when you read the posts of i got a bad feeling about a storm that is still a depression is stupid.
Or the watch out Jacksonville area cause a GFS model has it there 6 days out is stupid.
Heck last year i liked it when they had it coming right over me 5 days out as it almost never goes where they have it going.
So that only shows anything more then saying lets watch it is wishcasting since you cannot give any data that shows a high probability of it hitting any area.
Sure we can say "i think" but as we say around here that was your first mistake you started thinking.
You know when we will know where this storm is going to go? when it gets there or close to there and they issue a warning then we will know.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:23 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Great post Clark,I will be looking forward to listening to you in the furture,as we go through a time that is very scary to us who live along the coast.I think it is safe to say,that we are all going through something that we have never had in our life times.Keep up the good work,we need you and others in here at times like this.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Ralph, I understand your concerns. However, I have yet to see a post here today that says it is going to hit Jacksonville in anything other than a very sarcastic manner. Posts that got out of hand were dealt with by the moderators. Obviously it is irresponsible to say that a storm is going to hit anywhere 16 days out. Yes, people are going to look at the guidance; I'll admit it took a look at it myself. But, no one is suggesting that it is going to hit there...just that it is an "interesting" solution and should be watched. If it looks like the storm has a greater chance of recurving out to sea, you'll see that reflected in the nature of the blogs & posts here and elsewhere. Post quantity may go down, but that's only because the storm will not pose a threat to the area that many people are from -- the SE US -- and thus the need for information and desire to learn more about the storm is not as great.
We cannot account for people who choose to react in a certain manner to something poster here, no matter how credible or not it may be. I certainly hope that no one is using any of my forecasts for anything more than guidance! I try to let everyone know my thinking on a storm, but I am a firm believer in following the authorities, from watching a storm to being prepared for a storm to evacuating if need be at the appropriate time. My thinking -- just like that of anyone here or elsewhere -- should only be used as a tool. I like to try to educate people about the tropics, with a little forecasting thrown in on the side. Since we've had an active season, it's been more of the latter recently. Once the season ends, it'll be almost exclusively the former. I should note in conjunction with all of the above that the disclaimer that comes with the website is that "This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources" and "When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center." It is certainly sage advice.
We will know where the storm is going to go when it gets closer to where it is going to go, that much is obvious. However, we are going to watch it until that point and weigh the possibilities in our heads. There is a possibility it may hit land -- and there is at least an equally likely possibility that it turns out to sea. We don't know yet, but we can see what the weather pattern *might* be like and try to assign some sort of probability to what might happen. That's about all we can do right now, and what I think anyone who is posting their thoughts is really trying to do. Hurricane season is all about being prepared for whatever may come your way. Tracking a storm in the eastern Atlantic is a part of that for many people, and that's why we are here on the boards.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:36 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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To the Mods: I hope you don't mind me attempting to respond to this post and if you want to send this to the graveyard, feel free.
ralphfl:
firstly: if you see people making posts you think are either dangerous or misleading, inform a moderator, They're actually pretty nice people and generally try to keep the fora on topic and focused on what is most important: Our fascination and infactuation with hurricanes. Yes, we're a bunch of hobbiests, and tehre are some posts that spread FUD. But with the Meterologists who take the time out of their day to give us insight and thoughts, and with people with 20+ years of experience tracking storms, it's fairly easy to seperate the wheat from the chaff.
I don't know who posted saying that florida was under the gun, but by all means report him to the mods. We're here to actually discuss ideas and reasoning, not wishcast.
We make it a point to emphesize that the NHC is *THE SOURCE* for hurricane information. We do not feel our ideas are as valid as the NHC most of the time (though every once in a while we can all agree they'll miss something, no one is perfect) We tell people to not depend on us, we can give thoughts, but the NHC is the gospel.
As far as people looking at the models a wek out and trying to spot something. that's part of the fun. to be able to say, "I saw it first" is a nice thought, particularly when you are able to do it more often than not. I know I do it with forming tropical depressions. And I do it for more than simply the thrill of actually predicting something (though it's nice on those rare times when I am vindicated
, but I also do it so I can better understand the storms and maybe in 10 years I'll actually be better than terrible. Other people have their own reasons, but i suspect most of them do it for positive reasons, not to wish death and destruction down upon florida or (pick the city of your choice). Remember that we're here to have fun as well.
I've said it before, and Ill say it again, if someone posts something you think is out of line, or a wishcast or something designed to spread unfounded fear, let the mods know. Be pro-active and help the mods keep the boards what they're supposed to be. Enjoyable
Take care
-Mark
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:42 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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BTW The 2 00 Runs i just looked at show a north turn.
Now will that happen? dunno that is the latest run from ukmet and the cmc i think it was both 00 runs i looked at show that motion.
But that is not to say if it does not get its act together soon it may as you said stay west but if we are going to use models the latest ones at this moment show the north turn but that is only 2 models.
But people really have no idea what casting does to some people.
3 weeks ago when i forget the storm name was going along, just for heck of it i asked the question about should i go to GA or wait and 3 people said they would cancel the trip.
Owell our church camp went to GA and the whole week we got 1 storm and it was not till friday and lasted 15 mins.
The point is too many people think they know more then the NHC and people wishcast so if by chance they are right they can say "look i told you so"
Heck if i keep saying each storm when its 6 days out is going to hit a certian area im bound to be right sooner or later
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 05:10 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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The UKMET hasn't performed well this year to my knowledge. Neither has the CMC.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 05:11 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Ralph, I understand that. Sometimes, it is nice to have some advance warning on these storms, even before the NHC can put that out. You have to take it all with a grain of salt, however. That includes wishcasts, forecasts, and any other kind of 'casts, whether from novice, quasiprofessional, professional, or commercial sources. Some are better than others...some will tell you they are better than others when they are not...and some just try to do their job and realize that there is a greater purpose to it all.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 05:22 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Yah canetracker i know if it had it going west then you would say different right?
So i guess the one that has it going west is the one you like right?
So i guess they should just take those 2 models and discontinue them since they have no chance of being right.
or maybe the ones taking it west should be discontinued? no, maybe we should talk about why they're showing what they're showing. you have yet to do something besides imply that other people are inept... but you can't provide any alternative reasoning. you're telling other people that their ideas are crap when you have none of your own. kind of useless on a discussion forum. -HF
| orlandocanewatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 05:58 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Can anyone tell me what they expect in Orlando this weekend for weather?? Heard something about a low in the Gulf that may bring lots of rain???
there's a surface trough strung out over the state.. the easterly flow will try to reassert itself in the coming days. should be a slightly more widespread version of the usual florida august shower weather. the low in the gulf is a long way from developing. -HF
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 10:15 AM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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A while back there was a poll asking which name scared you the most and I answered Irene. This storm also gives me a really bad vibe. I'm just a paramedic, what do I know?
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danielw
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 10:42 AM |
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Irene?
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Your post piqued my curiosity about the " I " storm.
I checked Ivan-2004. Against TD 9's, 5 AM EDT position.
Ivan was centered near 9.0N/ 37.4W and had 50kt winds.
TD 9 is near 14.4N/ 36.1 W.
That would have put Ivan in much warmer water...climatologically.
So TD 9 is around 333nm NE of where Ivan was at approximately the same longitude.
SSTs do change. But NHC is saying TD 9 is in cooler water for now. I believe it was mentioned in last night's 11 PM EDT Discussion.
Of course climatology is behaving badly this year.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml?
This morning Area Forecast Discussions, from the Northern and Eastern GOM NWS Offices, are mentione a mid-level Low that is progged to meander around the ALMSLA Coasts this weekend. Almost all of the North Central GOM Offices are expecting this Low to drift toward the West.
No development is anticipated at this time.
Mobile, AL NWS Office has added "RAINFALL
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES." to All of the Mobile NWS Zone Forecast Products for this morning.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=ZFPMOB&max=51
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:06 PM |
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Re: Irene?
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Actually quite shocked at where 95L is at the moment. Quite far north and heading to the NW ! GFS at 6z dissipates it. NOGAPS does also. GFDL may have the best handle on it, as it keeps it alive as a TS, and seems to have initialized it well, showing pretty much the movement that early visible pix show. Let's see what evolves, but Stewart is pretty much on, saying it is heading for a weakness in the ridge caused by an ULL, but that will go away and fill with time, allowing a westward motion after a couple of days. Watch the models flip-flop like fish on the deck
Cheers!!
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:35 PM |
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Re: Irene?
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Actually, after looing at the visible this morning it looks like the center is moving more NNW. It could just be the location of the satellite making it look this way, but it appears to now be located at ~ 37W 15N....can anyone else confirm what I think I am seeing is correct?
Thanks....And Have a Good Weekend!!!!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 12:35 PM |
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Re: Irene?
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Follow up on the 91 foot Ivan wave. There is an article on it here: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,164826,00.html
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 01:23 PM |
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Re: Irene?
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TD9 looks pretty ill to me...cool water, exposed llc w/o convection, further north than expected and looking as if the llc is elongating north...condition critical for long term survival.
I don't see this being a player...
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:01 PM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085543.shtml?table
Angie im beginning not to worry as much now that that link up there has future Irene only being a cat. 1 or maybe a cat. 2 at most, and also the pressure iss waayy to high for this thing to be a major hurricane unless we have rapid intensification or something. What do people think about this?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:24 PM |
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Re: Irene?
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Way to early to say it will not be anything,or that it will be a major storm.We all just have to wait and see.There is also a nice wave right behind it.It's starting to heat up again,and we have a long way to go.
| RyanRedCross1 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:24 PM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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Yes, TD 9 looks sick from looking at the sattelite loops... and I hope it dies.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:43 PM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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Looks like a weak Fish spinner. I guess its time to watch the next one behind it.
| Jamiewx |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:44 PM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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NHC confirming TD9's lack in organization at 11am in their discussion.
"How little we know about the genesis of tropical cyclones. Satellite
images during the day yesterday showed a distinct disturbance in the
deep tropics with all known factors apparently favorable for the
system to become a tropical storm. Surprisingly this
morning...visible images indicate that the system has become
disorganized"
Some drastic changes have been made to the forecast track and intensity as you will see.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:45 PM |
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TD 9 Model Runs
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| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Clark, I realize that this storm (TD 9) is way too far out to know what it is going to do but if it did impact the US how far down the line would that be? It looks like if it doesn't turn north it could impact Florida or some part of the East Coast. Anyway, I was just wondering how long it would take the storm to move from its current position to one close to the US coastline if it didn't turn more north. Thanks for the information.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:49 PM |
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Re: TD 9 Model Runs
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I think we finally have our first dud of the season. But who knows, this storm may just turn to the west to screw with us.
| Ed G |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:52 PM |
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Re: TD 9 Model Runs
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watch out Phil, that "buckle up" statement might be considered wishcasting
.
| Ryan |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:52 PM |
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Re: TD 9 Model Runs
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i still think Irene will develope
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: GFS and UKMet Runs
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IF the llc can remain intact and move more westward for 24-48 hrs then something could fire there... never take your eyes off a surface low in the tropical Atlantic this time of year...the MJO is turning positive and more vigorous over the next 4-6 weeks...expect the first spike in activity soon.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:54 PM |
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Re: TD 9 Model Runs
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Quote:
i still think Irene will develope
oh, irene will develop this season...the question is whether TD9 will become irene.
| Ryan |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:55 PM |
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Re: TD 9 Model Runs
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thats what im saying, i think TD#9 will be Irene, but not pacxking much of a punch
| Clark |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 02:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Well...Avila's first sentence of the 11a discussion says it all with regards to TD 9. Lots of people look to be wrong on this one unless something changes and the system reforms further to the south. None of our model guidance or analysis products indicated this possibility, but lo and behold it has happened. Their forecast is probably on course for the time being, bringing it to a TS in a few days, but that's a far cry from what could've been and what was predicted just 12hr ago. Still one to watch, but the envelope is much different now.
Wave behind it bears watching, might be 96L in a day or two. Harvey's headed out to sea, though it'll hang around a little while before then. All in all, a false start to August, perhaps? We'll know in a couple of days.
| LI Phil |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Nice analysis, as always, CLARK.
"we'll just have to wait and see"
coupla things...first off, if TD9 doesn't start on a more southerly track, it will, thankfully, not be a concern. if it continues on it's current nw track, shear monster takes over and it gets picked up by the trof in the north atlantic...that's the best possible scenario...but
"we'll just have to wait and see"
harvey still has an outside shot at reaching cane status today...since he's a threat only to marine interests, i wonder if NHC would go "all out" to upgrade him...be interesting to see how that plays out
"we'll just have to wait and see"
finally, as clark pointed out, the wave behind TD9 could be the next potential trouble-maker, and the african wave train is moving full steam ahead. so lots to look for over the next coupla weeks, regardless, but
"we'll just have to wait and see"
| Edubrasileiro |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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What are the potential implications of the shallow system in terms of movement?
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:23 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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LI Phil, you didn't mention the potential development of a TD near the mouth of the Miss River which the FSUmm5 has been persistent with the last several days..There is a convective blow-up this morning in the north-central GOM and I see a hint of a LLC near the mouth of the Miss River from the visible SAT about 100 miles south of Mobile..I see the ULL spinning north of Mobile but I think we may have something interesting here..much closer to home..but we'll just have to wait and see.
| Steve H1 |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:28 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Certainly don't bet the house on anything concerning TD # 9. I say this 'cause as soon as I say its done it turns on me! I should know better, but always fall into the trap. If you look at the latest visible loop, TD # 9 is back on a westward track and is looking good. Lets just watch. Damn the models for now!! Cheers!!
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Weaker systems are less likely to get pulled north into the weakness in the ridge which has developed due to Harvey...As I understand it, the stronger systems with vigorous circulations tend to slide to the right due to friction and drag factors and that certainly is lessened with a weak system.
TD 9's llc is clearly on the northern extreme of a pretty deep envelope of moist air to its south and east, and is in a dry pool that may beginning to give way to the moist air...
It is clear if the llc had stayed near its convection that it began to build yesterday the system would be deepening now.
I am curious though why that last remaing convection shows signs of shear...I can see nothing that would have blown the convection to the SW of the center or caused the LLC to jump NW as it did.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:36 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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the upper high is actually collapsing on itself and forcing some northerly shear, probably because of the dry air
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:39 PM |
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harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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totally different situation than we were looking at last night. we had all sorts of evidence.. appearance and numerous model runs.. backing td 9 becoming irene and taking one of those interesting tracks that could either recurve or continue west. now we're looking at what the nhc calls a 'disorganized system'. that's their generic phrase for anything that doesn't have a classic healthy appearance... in this case it means there's actually a well defined surface circulation.. not an elongated or multiple-type center... just kinda lost all its convection. it's still over 80-81F ssts and shouldn't track off of those... its ridging looks weaker but not gone by any means. subsidence in the area is about the only thing i can think of that caused 9L to lose its convection, but whatever the cause it has completely mixed up the forecast path and intensity.
9L ought to blow some more convection before long.. and keep its identity. as a shallower system it should track more westerly... but it should have been doing that already. there is an upper low to its nnw, but that shouldn't be affecting it much yet. nonetheless it has already taken an odd track and that may persist.. if it keeps doing what it's doing, it will move into the open atlantic and only show modest development if at all... as per the nhc official. the other school of thought i'll entertain is that the low level flow kicks in and pushes this sucker more westward, and that the ridge will bridge the weakness to the north. it would have to remain fairly weak for a couple of days for that to happen.
elsewhere harvey has decoupled and won't move much until it redevelops convection. the storm should eventually get carried out... but if it starts to trough out, that wake trough we were thinking about may be in 9L's way. not sold on that just yet.. some models (read cmc) have shown it trying to back up a little.
interesting activity along the northern gulf/east of florida. there's a weak ( i mean 1017mb weak) low near the miss delta... but some cyclonic curvature and building ridging aloft (max on the upper trough to the north is digging to the west and backing out). there's the mcc core from over florida last night which is drifting near fort pierce, and another trough max just ne of there... then another max east and south of there. with ridging building aloft and convergence at the surface, low pressure development is favored now. the one near the central gulf coast may have land to interfere with it.. but it's further along than anything east of florida. stuff worthy of the TWOs should start to happen in this area over the weekend. not sure what exactly, but any of the listed areas may become a focal point.
there's that other wave east of 9L, but models have largely backed away. it has to get further west to do anything in any case.
HF 1539z05august
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:50 PM |
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Re: harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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Yah and just yesterday some people were already saying lookout east coast U.S and how it was going to go West and how it was going to be a monster in a few days and on and on and on when in reality when it comes down to the bottom line all you can do is look at the models and make a educated GUESS!!!!
so i guess maybe the ukmet had it right from the beginning but we still will see.
| damejune2 |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 03:58 PM |
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Re: harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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After reading many of the posts since the 11am update, it almost seems as if some of you are a little upset that this thing may track out to sea....LOL....Never look a gift horse in the mouth!!
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:13 PM |
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Re: harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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Sorry, but i am very superstitious and with everyone questioning why the storm has changed it's track i am thinking we will jinx our selves.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:15 PM |
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Re: harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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HankFank is just doing what he does best. analyze synoptic features pretty darn well to let us know what else may be worh watching.
And Damien, I haven't seen any wishcasting here especially since 11, just some people trying to do what even NHC had trouble doing which is explain as best they can what happened...as Clark said it is something to watch, and have fun trying to explain.
Even the METs (see the Bastardi broadcast today) aren't totally giving up yet on 9L and it being something in the picture for the US in 7-8 days.
edit -- let's not call each other out please.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:26 PM |
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Re: harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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Hey Doug - I know that wishcasting wasn't involved and i am sorry if it sounded that way. I just dont want to be jinxed! BTW - Damian is the correct spelling, with an A instead of E. No problem though, everyone does it, including family!!
Thanks for your post and sorry for the misunderstanding!
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:37 PM |
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Re: harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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ralphfl- I have been coming here for a year and although from time to time you might see someone wishcasting it doesn't happen that often. You can go to other sites and you wouldn't believe the wishcasting you see there. I respect the knowledge of the long time storm trackers and mets here and after my experience last year with Frances and Jeanne I will tell you the people here were great. Some of them nailed the storms before even the NHC did.
Edit - try sending PM's to tell folks how you feel.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 04:39 PM |
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Re: harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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Damien thanks! We are neighbors I see...Glad you watch this board... it is very up to the minute far ahead of what one can get publically and accurate too.
HankFrank speculated that subsidence may be the culprit in the current 'respirator condition' of TD9, and if you look north to about 26N you may see the cause...it looks like a ULL with associated convective activity around its core and some low level moisture to work with...this looks awfully much like the presentation of Harvey last weekend to me, except the convection is not persisting. It seems to be moving back to the SSW a bit.
From the WV on TD9 however it appears the moisture from the south and east is entraining a bit into where the llc is and some consolidation of the low level clouds has occurred. It is moving just north of west from about 17.5 north.
It will need about 24 hours of consistent improvement to make it in my opinion, but some signs of life remain...
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 05:21 PM |
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Re: harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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Thanks Redington I will remember that from now on
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 05:32 PM |
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9L
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Seems to be heading just north of due west at the moment. Its not down and out for the count yet.And the models seem to have been trending southward again except for the wacky GFS.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 05:35 PM |
Site Moderation
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Debbie, your post is fine.
Some of you who are new to the site seem to be attempting to Moderate the site with your comments. On CFHC we leave that task to the Administrators and Moderators. If you see something that you believe to be inappropriate, just send a PM to one of the site officials and they will take any appropriate action. On this board, we do not slam the poster. Its okay to disagree with a post, but if you do, you must state why you disagree and try to do it in a positive way rather than a negative one.
Wishcasting is not allowed - period. If you comment based on a model output, that is not wishcasting. If you disagree with the model outputs and explain 'why' you disagree with some realistic insight, that also is not wishcasting.
On CFHC, the meteorologists and experienced storm trackers base their assessments on their knowledge of atmospheric dynamics. We'll always do our best to let you know if something is heading your way - and most of the time we tend to agree with the guidelines provided by the NHC forecasts. At an age of about 150 years (maybe), Meteorology is a VERY young natural science - and therefore it is a long way from being accurate, so be a little understanding when something doesn't quite pan out as expected. Its still more of an art form rather than a science - but we're working on it and it will require patience on our part - and yours.
Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 05:56 PM |
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Re: 9L
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Here is a theorey on the surprise we all received this morning when we saw what 9L actually looked like:
Perhaps we had the dominant LLC misplaced...I personally thought it was near where some convection fired off yesterday and located at around 12.5 N and just to the east of the larger convective mass. However there did seem to be something just north of that which is why I said it looked elongated, but the convection soon seperated the two areas and it seemed the depression had formed around 12.5 north approx.
What if the exposed center today is what was there to the north all along and has spun out on its own, AND the vortex at 12.5 was not on the surface and was midlevel.
I say that becasue there is still some visual evidence for some vorticity on the east side of the convection at around 12.5, which is getting a little more vigorous again, but as far as I can see no surface reflection..
.If I am right then this was never a depression but only a wave all along.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 06:07 PM |
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Riddle me this...
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OK, looking at the TPC 72 hour surface forecast for pressures, it looks like they expect TD#9 to sneak through the slight break in the ridge (site link attached). To my untrained eye, that looks like an awful small break in the ridgeline and that the timing would have to be really tight to make all of this fall into place...
What do you folks think?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 06:25 PM |
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Re: 9L
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Doug, you seem to be correct, because if you look at the NRL track, you'll notice it has been tracking NW for about 30 hours, and for the last 12, the NRL plots have been north of NHC position, so NHC seems to have been tracking the midlevel circulation; it appears that the sudden northward movement is simply the center becoming visible from underneath the clouds
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 06:26 PM |
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Re: TD9
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Well, you beat me to it - with one wrinkle - I think that what you are seeing now is more of a very well formed and mostly mid-level circulation and that the surface vortex (now rather weak) is located to the SSE. But your analysis seems sound. During the night, northerly shear displaced the convection and perhaps the surface low to the south. Since the system was/is only a TD, its quite likely that the two circulation centers never were fully coupled. Remember that trough off the west coast of Africa that Clark mentioned in his blog? Well that was probably the real culprit for the northerly shear. At any rate the system seems to be heading off to the west northwest again and the shear is less evident, so I'd expect TD9 to regather some convection again. I doubt that the system will fall apart since the circulation envelope is large, but any intensification will take a day or so.
Cheers,
ED
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 06:35 PM |
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Re: TD9
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on visible i am noticing a small area of thunderstorms developing to the west of the center and another to the south
there are also two interesting things on the Gulf visible:
small spin off Florida and a low that now appears to be working southward into the Gulf from Alabama and getting organized
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 06:42 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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Quote:
LI Phil, you didn't mention the potential development of a TD near the mouth of the Miss River which the FSUmm5 has been persistent with the last several days..There is a convective blow-up this morning in the north-central GOM and I see a hint of a LLC near the mouth of the Miss River from the visible SAT about 100 miles south of Mobile..I see the ULL spinning north of Mobile but I think we may have something interesting here..much closer to home..but we'll just have to wait and see.
I just heard from someone that this is now a depression ??? Has anyone else heard that yet ?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 06:49 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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i havent heard that, not sure if thats truee
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 06:53 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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well...(and i'm sorry i didn't mention it, as i did see it discussed very briefly on TWC this am, but never followed up on it); it's not on the navy site, and NHC didn't give it much verbage in their 11:30 TWO...since it's so close to home, as Rabbit and others have pointed out, it does need to be watched...here's a link to gulf wv loop (click on all the boxes for radar & lat/lon)...
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 07:03 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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GO BACK TO HANKFRANK #46617 FROM THIS MORNING (PAGE 4)...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 07:04 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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here's a look at td 9 also noticed the wave coming off africa today.....
here's a look at
fl panhandle
| NewWatcher |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 07:04 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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A POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY FORM NEAR 32N89W IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.
From NHC 205 pm discussion
| Ron Basso |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 07:22 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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No depression yet. It's funny, at the office today someone said the same thing at noon. They said they heard it from TWC. I checked the offshore buoys, no pressure falls and winds are light offshore of Mobile. An anticyclone is building over the top of the convective complex and the ULL is moving away. Gulf Temps in the mid-80s so plenty of fuel there. The FSUmm5 has shown a spin up in this area for a few days now, but the MM5 has a tendency to form spurious lows from time to time. I think there's some potential for a TD but it may take another day or two.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 07:23 PM |
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Re: harvey sheared, 9L busting forecasts, elsewhere
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Of course accuweather won't give up on it. It would lower there ratings. If there is a possibility even small they will give that option. There will be a Irene and probably by the end of this weekend. I just don't think it will be this depression. But what do I know.
| kissy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 07:51 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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What does this low mean for MS? Is it just really bad storms?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 08:08 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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ACTUALLY IT JUST MEANS A VERY WET WEEKEND..SIMILIAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS A FEATURE (LOW PRESSURE AREA) NEAR THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AS EVIDENCED ON RADAR, BUT IT WOULD HAVE TO GET INTO THE GULF FOR A FEW DAYS TO BUILD..I KNOW WE ARE STAYING VERY WET IN PCOLA
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 08:20 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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The sat imgaery shows that TD9, the GOM, NE Florida coast- they all appear to be 'juicy' just waiting for the right moment to fire up. The entire GOM area will be wet this weekend- that much is certain.
| Bloodstar |
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| Fri Aug 05 2005 08:21 PM |
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Re: GOM Development, 09L and Harvey
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Regarding the GOM development, it looks like it's more onshore than offshore. It might drift south and make something but until that actually happens, I'd say ixnay on any development as a tropical system.
09L: The circulation looks like it's starting to weaken. though with some Isolated convection on the southern side, together with some good banding features (but very limited convection) on the northern semi circle. it's going to take a while for the storm to pick up some steam. if I had to take a short term estimate, I'd say it's going to stairstep to a WNW for the next 24 hours. though it's possible the convection could keep it a little further south as the circulation tries to remain connected to the convection. With the system weaker, despite the initial northern jaunt, it should drift to a more westerly motion and be a tropical storm in 24 hours. it won't take much convection to push the system to a tropical storm. and one good presistant burst should do it.
Harvey: Heading due east, and looks like it's slowing down slightly. but any realistic chance that the storm could make it to hurricane status was pretty much wiped out by the shear that struck it last night. It's possible that the shear could relax while it's over relatively warm waters, but I wouldn't hold my breath, it looks like yet another system that fell just short or hurricane intensity. Which is not a bad thing, as I suspect we'll have plenty more systems to worry about later.
The blob of conection at 10N 22W (or so) actually has a better chance of developing with TD 9 being weaker than projected. (less outflow shear to fight through), but it's still got a couple of days before there's any real shot at development...
the convection at 28N 70W seems to be holding together for at least 8 hours, but... it probably needs at least another day before it could possibly be something, if it holds together tonight, then tomorrow it might be worth really paying attention to. Otherwise I think any window to develop will be closed.
Just my thoughts and IANAM
-Mark
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 08:21 PM |
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Re: GOM Development?
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East winds and banding here in PNS, seems evidence of a building circulation....this one may sneak up on us.
I think TD9 is about finished.....it may reemerge in the next few days....something is trying to go EAST of Fl, too.
MM
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 08:47 PM |
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TD9-???
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From the 5:00:
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
be interesting to see if this does indeed make it to TS status...i still don't see any reason why it won't, but dvoraks remain constant at 1.0/1.5; will still be over reasonably warm water and shear, while there, isn't overly strong
still, compared to what was being progged 24-48 hours ago, this one might barely get a name...WAY TOO EARLY to write it off, but it's looking better and better (for NO development)
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 09:12 PM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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I think it's a goner. I have not been impressed all along....systems seem to have a 'memory' from how they start, sometimes. This system has bever been really well organized (maybe "classically" organized is a better term to use) and started 'running down' almost from the start....convection doesn't persist.
Here is what Avila says:
BECAUSE THE DEPRESION DOES NOT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND
IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
14-16 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AND A MODEST STRENGHTENING BEYOND 3 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT SURVIVE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NORTHERNMOST
TRACK IS THE GFS AND THE SOUTHERNMOST IS THE UK MODEL.
FORECASTER AVILA
Also, very interesting what he said in first part of the disco ( not reprinted here)....about the upper low coming so far south. I am beginning to have just the shred of a doubt about the hyperactive season. Now, this is just one storm, and it is early August (although the activity so far makes it seem more like late August !), and, this may ONLY apply to systems over in the Eastlant (I think most of our "trouble" this season is going to come from closer in....) but, MAYBE, just maybe, all the favorable indicators are going to be mitigated by too much TUTT/Upper low activity...too much vorticity in the mid and upper levels.
I notices in Gray's forecast for August, he noted about as many negative factors as positives (this changed in Sept and October). So, maybe AUGUST will not be the super active month we thought....but, like last year, September may make up for it.
We will see...!
MM
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 09:20 PM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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I'm going to have to disagree with you on TD9, MM. It had the organization ever since it came off of the coast of Africa. Unlike many other waves, the convection persisted for days, organized around a well-defined mid-level center. The low-level surface center, until very recently, was co-located with that mid-level center, allowing for development. Only once the shear and perhaps some slight dry air entrainment took hold did the system look disorganized...and that was just overnight. Many will agree, from the NHC on down...this one had the model support, had the "look" that so many CV systems that develop do, and had the favorable conditions to support its development.
The upper lows are transient features and, given a few days to a week, this one will do much the same. Harvey & the trough that comes to pick it up will likely help to lift this feature northward as well, and ridging is present or developing across much of the rest of the basin. We may not have a quick start to the month (beyond what we've already seen), but the middle and latter parts of the month should be kicking.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 09:55 PM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Respectfully....I was stating MY opinion of the state or organization....it looked sick to me all along....I realize I am going against the flow here!
To me, it only had "that look" in the very beginning...anyway, we can agree to disgree...agreeably!BTW..the next system following along behind TD 9 is beginning to get 'that look'. We will see if it does any better.
As for the rest..we will see. I am just speculating, of course, but it is informed speculation..subject to change of course as time passes and data accumulates.
MM
EDIT: I think I may have to change my 'screen-name' to TypoKing!
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 10:06 PM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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I have to admit, I did find interesting Dr. Gray's factors for the August activity. To recap that section, he uses 12 factors for activity during August. Of those 12, only 5 were considered to be favorable for TC development.
September is a different story...7 total factors, 5 favorable. October was given a favorable outlook as well, with 3 out of 4 factors having an enhancing effect on TC activity.
So, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that September could have a very heavy concentration of activity.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 10:16 PM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Quote:
Respectfully....I was stating MY opinion of the state or organization....it looked sick to me all along....I realize I am going against the flow here!
BTW..the next system following along behind TD 9 is beginning to get 'that look'. We will see if it does any better.
As for the rest..we will see. I am just speculating, of course, but it is informed speculation..subject to change of course as time passes and data accumulates.
MM
I know where you're coming from. I believe that a lot of weather watchers are kind of bummed out about today's events. It has been a really odd day, especially in regards to TD 9. Last night the system showed an incredible amount of promise, only to get smacked down today. I'll say this- the weather does throw out its fair share of surprises. We are likely to have many more of these surprises during the rest of this hurricane season-for better or worse.
On another note...Avila's headline for the 5 PM advisory...
"...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE FOR SURVIVAL..."
Absolutely beautiful, Avila really displayed a flair for the dramatic there. Just the opposite of being antiseptic, this header was poetic. It brought tears to my eyes.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 10:28 PM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Kevin, it is interesting that you mentioned a lot of people being “bummed out” (as I am sure they are), and I kind of wanted to recognize that. I was feeling the exact same sentiments around certain individuals (not necessarily here), but I wager a surprise like this is infinitely better than something similar to what, say, hurricane Charley “pulled” about a week from today last year. Interesting paradox.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 10:58 PM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Quote:Well, I'm personally uncertain as to what 'that look' might be. However, if immediately upon leaving Africa the next system was better organized than the previous system would its path tend to look any more 'linear' in appearance? I understand that such systems are ultimately driven wherever they’re driven. But if a better-organized system was cruising west along 10N would it be any more likely to head for Central America (for example) than for Greenland, all other factors being basically static?
Respectfully....I was stating MY opinion of the state or organization....it looked sick to me all along....I realize I am going against the flow here!
BTW..the next system following along behind TD 9 is beginning to get 'that look'…
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 11:35 PM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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I personally wouldn't care if they all fizzled out after last year, unfortunately that won't happen
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 05 2005 11:52 PM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Gfdl dissipates td9 in 18 hours , of course it 's only one model.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05080523
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 12:26 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Speed and direction coming off the cape are only a minor component. More important are mid or low level circulation and convection at some point. A lot of waves traverse the entire Atlantic before they have much convection, some are just barely visible on satellite. As far as direction, that is dependent on the strength of the system and the evnrionemnt around it. A weak wave is mostly affected by the low level environment, a stronger storm by the mid level, and a fully developed tropical system by the upper levels. The stronger the storm, the more the mid and upperr levels will affect the direction. If you just look at some animations of satellite images, you will see that at different levels the clouds move in sometimes completely oopposite directions. This is an extremely complex environemnt at any one moment. To get a feel for what is going on you have to look at lots and lots of information, and you have to look at it in 3D, height makes a difference, And height is defined by pressure, not by altitude, so it gets even more complex.
Bill
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 12:34 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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GFS is also disspating it. We'll see have to see if the other models follow suit.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Quote:
GFS is also disspating it. We'll see have to see if the other models follow suit.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Though disapating the system, I am not sure if this run is entirely good news.
I may be mistaken, but it appears to me that though the GFS reduces it to a wave, I think the track is more important. It takes the storm east of the Bahamas (and those warm waters) moving towards the west @ the end of the period. So while the intensity is good news, perhaps (and I am no met) the track may not be.
(As a sidenote, BAMMs did a shift more west this last run)
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 01:15 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 01:20 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Ralph, I did not say the storm was going to follow one of the BAMM models. I was merely bringing up a change in one of the forecast models, as over the next few days that is primarily what weather watchers will be doing, watching the models, watching the shifts. That's all.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 01:32 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Thank you.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 01:35 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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I was just stating to the guy who said when i posted what that model said he jumped right in and said that model is not good and to discount it since it had it going north atg the time.
So i was wondering if now its a ok model since it has it going more west is all.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 01:36 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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It's not that BAMM is bad - it has its own set of biases that were being specifically referred to.
Your sarcasm does little to improve your knowledge. A little more open-mindedness would not be a bad thing. You might just learn something
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 01:40 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Ok, Ralph, I gotcha.
You'll find a lot of people here with a lot of various interpretations of the models. Personally, I take them all with a grain of salt. They'll be jumping around over the next couple of days a lot. With all of the factors coming into play (riding, shear, SAL, etc), I don't really know if there is such a thing as a "good" model. These things are just for guidance and to bring up interesting possibilities, it's the mets who are the most dependable when it comes to tracks.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:09 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Hello folks and fella weather watchers. I do not have all the meterology vocabulary so I am going to tell it like I see it and hopefully the worst thing that will happen to me is some one will laugh. But, I took a good look at a marvelous speeded up time lapsed satellite loop and it seems to me that over the last few days of loops, all of the layers of the atmosphere are merely running into each other fighting to gain a particular direction. If I am seeing this correctly, that explains the models being all over the place on these storms. It is obvious to the naked eye that an atmospheric pattern will start and it will be met with an equally determined pattern from another direction. From a amateur viewpoint, it looks like the various guiding currents are playing bumper cars and no one in particular is winning at this time. God only help us if it smoothes out in the direction of the Caribbean, the US, Mexico or Canada. I don't know how Europe handles these storms because they are usually somebody else by the time they get to England or France.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:20 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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The latest AFD fro TLH/TAE mention eyes will watch the GOM for the next few days..... But being close to land, doesn't give it much of a chance, except for a lot of rain over the Panhandle. I think the FSU MM5 was trying to spinn up something in this area, now the GFS is too, but appears a little too much.
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
843 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED TO A POSITION ROUGHLY
CENTERED OVER SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO ANALYZE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE TODAY,
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF JUST S OF PNS. NHC IS ACTUALLY
MONITORING THIS FEATURE PER THEIR LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK,
ALTHOUGH THEY MENTION THAT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST OVER THE SHORT TERM. ALL OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LINGERING RIGHT AT THE COAST, BEFORE
MOVING INLAND ON SUN. WHETHER THE LOW EVER DEVELOPS ANY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OR NOT, THE CIRCULATION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
MOIST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION.
.MARINE...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW TO THE W. IF IT DEVELOPS LIKE THE GFS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WE WILL MENTION THE LOW IN THE SYNOPSIS AND
BEGIN TO TREND THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST UP JUST A BIT BEGINNING
SAT NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE WON'T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE GFS/WAVEWATCH
JUST YET.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:32 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Stormhunter - In your own opinion, will the problem in the GOM be a problem for south florida or is this something that will remain north of Sarasota? I am doubting a tropical system at this point, but could we see a lot of rain? Thanks for all your good info, keep it up?
(certain posts have been deleted or placed in the Graveyard - let it go at that)
ED
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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Any ideas on the GOM mess??
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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>>Just read back to the Dennis posts to see them they are there.
On some forums there were serious wobble wars between Texans and Floridians. I try not to wishcast for the opposite reason, I don't want to jinx my chances at getting a storm. So until something's on top of me, I'm not calling it to come here (usually). I saw someone mention Dr. Gray's forecast. The thing that sticks out at me is the ACE index of 235. That's record territory for overall seasonal intensity if it verifies. I think a lot of people figured that this would be more of an average year after the insane 2004 storm season. But Dr. Gray's ACE predicts 6 more intensity points than were observed. So we'll see.
As far as the tropics, I think we're just going to see a few named storms here and there before the season revs up in a couple of weeks. And when it does, it might go full throttle for 4 or 5 weeks, slow back and then peak again during October. If you consider there have been 6 storms already in the Gulf of Mexico, you'd think that was a banner year for the Gulf. But we'll probably see 9 or more* (not an official forecast, JMO). That's a crazy number and a rarity.
The 1014 low that's along the surface trof south of FL is interesting. JB progged something to form south of LA last week, but other than the trof remaining draped across the northern GC and adjacent waters, it hasn't spun up anything organized. There has been a suface low every day (per NWS plots) alternating between Morgan City and around Destin. Sometimes the surface reflection has been overland, other times over water. But whatever it is dies down over night until another area spawns up the next day. The Gulf is plenty warm enough for low level feedback, and with some of the energy from the former Invest 93L a few hundred miles SE of the low and moving again, there might be a spark to get something rolling. I'd give it < 30%, but some stronger rains and storms might result Saturday and Sunday because of the additional influx of tropical energy. Some places on the Panhandle got 4+" today. And while there's not a really good chance for development, odds are that there will be plenty more rain to go around tomorrow.
FWIW, NAO's been semi predictive/concurrent with some of this season's activity. As noted last month, we're at about 50% of this year's named named storms forming as it crossed the 0 line (most recently Harvey). That's something to probably watch as the season wears on not only for future tracks but for identification of pattern changes where development could occur.
Steve
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 03:07 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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I would say that with all the tropical moisture in place - yeah there will be rain all around the state of Fla for next few days. Basically.... If the sun comes out and it warms up temps wise, then there is a good chance for rain and thunderstorms. I read yesterday that record amounts of lightning had occured in Florida. But with this low now in northern GOM..off the panhandle ( image link: surface )
lots of moisture should be pumped in off the gulf until this moves out.
i would check your local WFO webpage for a local detailed forecast.
Just read the 11pm disc about td 9.....you can clearly see a big low level circulation on floater 2, but as for storms they appear to be to the southeast of center. Shear is present due to the ULL to the north..... i wonder if a part of the system will make over to the northern islands?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 03:48 AM |
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NOGAPS
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NOGAPS has TD#9 in 96 hours heading off to the northeast with a pressure of about 1012-1016, that strenghtens a litle before it makes a northwest turn out to sea...im gonna have to agree with NOGAPS on that one, but the wave behind it is defintaley worth watching,. and so is td#9 until it turns off like Harvey and Franklin
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 04:22 AM |
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Re: NOGAPS
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I wouldnt throw away TD 9 as of yet..........not to say anything will happen but all it has todo is survive thru Sunday and it will be near 20W and 60W by Sunday night. A ridge should be in place off the SE US thru most of next week. Conditions will be favorible for development east of the bahamas. I just say lets wait to see how this pans out over the weekend. I wouldnt be surprised if by mid week we are staring at a strong hurricane near the bahama chain. A current weaker system will track w or wnw right now. Nogaps had it stronger thru the period on its 12z run taking it N.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 04:23 AM |
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MM5FSU
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Between the 12z runs and 18z runs their is a considerable shift south and westward. I know it hasn't done that well this year but I wonder if its picking up something and could possibly be indicating a trend in the other models maybe?
I hope not, I hope this just fizzles instead of sizzles.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:17 AM |
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Re: Avila's reading my mind
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MM -- sorry for the delay in replying, but of course...two keen people can see two entirely different things! It's fine to disagree. I wasn't in any way trying to say 'this is right and yours is wrong...,' so I apologize if it came out that way.
Convection is trying to get going on various flanks of the storm, but nothing organized yet. These low-level vortices can survive for some time without convection, but if we don't see anything in a day or two...that'll be that.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:21 AM |
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Re: MM5FSU
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CaneTracker -- it's more a case, I think, of it coming back into line with the previous 6 or so model runs than changing to something new. The 12z run was quite different from the others in suggesting that northward movement late in the period...though it has done well with this storm for the past 6-8 runs now. It was too strong early, but picked up on a move northward and then turn west with a weak storm...not too bad. We'll have to see how it does from here on out.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:49 AM |
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Re: MM5FSU
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Quote:
CaneTracker -- it's more a case, I think, of it coming back into line with the previous 6 or so model runs than changing to something new. The 12z run was quite different from the others in suggesting that northward movement late in the period...though it has done well with this storm for the past 6-8 runs now. It was too strong early, but picked up on a move northward and then turn west with a weak storm...not too bad. We'll have to see how it does from here on out.
Thanks Clark for answering that. Now the question is, is if this is going to be the most accurate model with this storm. We'll see.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 06:58 AM |
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nosleep
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stuff in order:
harvey.. lingering, probably around for another 36-48 hrs or so. then out it goes.
9L... starting to generate some convection again. it isn't 'weakening' because it was probably stronger (maybe a borderline t.s.) last night before the convection went poof. the track has bent back to the west today... makes a little more sense to be honest. there's some westerly shear from that ULL to the north... should keep it in check for saturday. later sunday 9L will probably be revving up some. if it can deepen significantly by tuesday or so, it'll turn up near/east of bermuda. if it keeps plodding along, weak.. it'll be a western atlantic threat. scottsvb most recently highlighted this option... the ridge isn't what we'd typically expect to keep a storm going west, so it'll have to keep a low profile or out it goes. there's also the option that it doesn't survive.. but i don't buy it. it'll probably persist.
trailer wave... near 18/20w behind 9L. gfs tracks this and keeps it on a low trajectory. like any wave in a year like this... can be a development threat as it gets further west next week.
gulf to bahamas... the weak low near pensacola is too close to the coast to really develop. further south along the trough another max could develop. don't expect that to pan out. two more areas east of florida... the mcc core from last night's florida convection started blowing more late this afternoon. there's a broad turning around there.. trough axis going east and west... and it's still throwing convection tonight. eyeball it tomorrow, especially if pressures start falling. there's another trough max east of the bahamas. it hasn't looked much better today.
i don't see anything else worth note. irene still seems to be coming along. the home brew option is floating around.
noticed that SOI is rising towards neutral again (maybe). makes me think the mjo wave is passing the westpac and soon to really get cranking on this side of the pond.
HF 0658z06august
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 07:09 AM |
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Re: nosleep
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noticed the burst convection SW of TD9 at ~10N and 50W... it has more convection than TD9 and almost hints of a rotation on the IR loop... actually it looks more impressive than TD9 at the moment, yes its awfully low to the south but it looks to be moving off to the wnw aiming at the southern windward islands about 800 miles away
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim8ir.html
as far as the home brew this evening.....definitely another rotation in the northern GOM per the radar loops, and lastest round of bouy data also indicates it at the surface with winds reported out of the east wnw and south at key bouys, however, pressures remain high, overall slowing rising, and max winds in the vicinity are only ~13.6 k gusts.... but its been doing this same scenario for the last week....
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 09:51 AM |
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Re: 5am Update
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Good morning all, here is the 5am, Frank P was right on w/ the 3am post.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005
TD-9 REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH NO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS APPARENT IN NIGHTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE TIGHTER INNER CIRCULATION...TWO CONSECUTIVE QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES INDICATING NUMEROUS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND A CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1006.5MB ...EQUAL TO ABOUT 33 KT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP INTO A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 120 NMI AWAY FROM THE CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY...AND THEREFORE...THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THESE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE TO A MINIMUM DURING THAT TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER AND MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND DEEPENING OF THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION SHOULD OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOWARD AN EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 55W-60W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM MOVES MORE WESTWARD AND STAYS BELOW 20N LATITUDE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IT MAY NEVER FEEL THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND NOT TURN NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALREADY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR LEFT OR SOUTH AS THE UKMET MODEL.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL USED. HOWEVER... IF THE ACTUAL FORECAST ENDS UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN WARMER WATER AND EVEN LESS VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.7N 41.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 43.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.8N 46.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.4N 48.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 51.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.3N 54.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 59.5W 55 KT
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 12:00 PM |
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Random AM Thoughts
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Good morning all,
Just a few random thoughts as we look at the tropics this monring...lets start with soon-to-be extratropical Harvey...it was a longshot at best, but TS Harvey never did make it to hurricane strength, topping out at 65 MPH for a time...he was never much of a threat (thankfully), only dumping some copious rain on bermuda with some strong gusts, but nothing of note. He should remain a tropical entity for another 24 to 48 hours before dissipating in the north atlantic. as of the 5:00 am, Harvey was located at 33.37N/56.6W tracking to the NNE at 7 mph; winds 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph...a threat, if you can even call him that, only to shipping interests. Harvey
TD9: this system has gotten its act a little bit more together overnight...as of 5:00, TD9 was located at 17.7N/41.7W with winds of 35 mph and gusts of 50 mph, moving WNW at a fairly quick 15 mph. TD9 is not expected to reach TS status today, as it is still experiencing some shear. Slow strengthening is expected, and we could have Irene by Sunday. the trailer wave may impact future Irene by sending her on a more southerly track... TD 9
i'd be remiss if i didn't mention the system still spinning up in the gulf, between mississippi and alabama...the system is starting to get a little better organized, although the models do not develop this, and some are keeping the center of circulation on shore...at any rate, this will keep the area very wet and tropical for the weekend...it should be watched, but again, development into a depression is not expected...upper level winds are not conducive to development
HanKFranK mentioned the area to the east of the Bahamas...development here is not expected, but it does merit a bear watch, as does an area of disturbed weather near southern mexico, although this activity is expected to track west and overland.
what to make of the wave behind TD 9? at this point, it's simply a waiting game ("we'll just have to wait and see"). at this time of year, there is always the potential for development and the african wave train is up and cranking.
That's about all we have for now. Everybody have a safe weekend.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 01:08 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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T Numbers are back up for TD 9 and Harvey
06/1145 UTC 17.6N 42.1W T1.0/1.0 09
06/1145 UTC 33.8N 57.1W T3.0/3.0 HARVEY
06/0545 UTC 32.9N 56.9W T2.5/3.0 HARVEY
06/0545 UTC 17.5N 41.0W TOO WEAK 09
05/1745 UTC 32.3N 57.6W ST2.5/3.0 HARVEY
05/1730 UTC 16.3N 38.2W T1.0/1.5 09
05/1700 UTC 16.3N 38.2W T1.0/1.5 09
05/1145 UTC 32.4N 58.5W ST3.0/3.5 08
05/1130 UTC 15.5N 36.4W T1.5/1.5 09
05/0600 UTC 13.0N 34.9W T1.5/1.5 09
05/0545 UTC 32.6N 59.4W T3.5/3.5 HARVEY
05/0000 UTC 12.9N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 09
04/2345 UTC 32.4N 60.5W T3.5/3.5 HARVEY
04/1700 UTC 12.5N 33.3W T1.0/1.0 95
04/1745 UTC 32.3N 62.4W T3.5/3.5 HARVEY
04/1100 UTC 12.4N 32.5W T1.0/1.0 95
04/0530 UTC 12.4N 31.5W T1.0/1.0 95
TD 9 Is getting better organized it looks like
and also when does navy declare invest and what do the have to look like or charactoristics do they have to have how close is the wave behind 9 to being a invest.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:13 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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TD9 looks like it's central convection is blooming right now, up substantially in the past couple hours. It will be interesting to see what the NHC discussion says in 45 minutes.
The wave behind TD9 also looks like it's getting it's act together.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:25 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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Can anyone comment on this UL feature near Puerto Rico and what effect it may have on any of us.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animwv.html
| Reaper |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:45 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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FSU mm5 has it coming north and developing off the SC/NC coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2...;hour=Animation
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:52 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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Son , think you need to learn to read the model runs better off the coast of NC/SC on FSUMM5 006Z run. more then off to coast more like 600 miles if you buy into FSUMM5, which is not one of the better models.
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:56 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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Lot's of interesting swirls in the Atlantic when you look at water vapor and sat loops. One question, there are a lot of storms of the SC coast this morning. Very warm water. Any chance that this could develop?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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I agree....i checked it and it's way off the coast....
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:58 PM |
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Re: Agree with Old Sailor
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RE: FSU models...I mean, on the run Reaper mentioned...look at all the boguscanes the model is generating off Central America in the Pacific!
Models, like so many other things in life need to be looked at in their entirity and in context. As the old saying goes...even a blind squirrel can find a nut, sometimes....but those times are few and far between!
MM
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 02:59 PM |
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Re: GOM Brewing
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I just took a quick look at the VIS SAT in the north-central GOM. There appears to be at least a mid-level circulation developing around dauphin island south of Mobile. I noticed some wrap around clouds and banding features (at least three diff ones) to the east of the feature. I see what appears to be an ULL north of P'Cola which is controlling the broad CC steering flow. There is also a trough diving south into S La with some dry air. While the upper level environment looks poor for pure tropical development, perhaps some baroclinically derived feature may be taking root. More along the lines of a sub-tropical low? Of course, it looked a lot like this yesterday morning and the convection & banding waned in the afternoon. Pressures have dropped slightly since this time yesterday (about 0.06 in from offshore buoys) with the lowest pressure centered offshore south of Mobile. If it does develop, due to its closeness to land it seems it will be weak and slow. Appears to be a eastward drift of the CC offshore.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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LilPhil - What do you mean when you say TD9 could take a more southerly track? Just curious......thanks!
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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I have a question and this is for anyone to answer - When i go to the page with the models, the one where you can pick and choose which storm, animation, by hour, etc...how does a person use it properly to get a forecasted track by the model?? I have no clue and would be delighted if someone could tell me how to do it.
PM me or post here for all to see, which ever way works best! Thanks again!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 03:15 PM |
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Re: GOM Brewing
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Well, here's what NHC says about that thing off the Alabama/Florida coast:
THE BROAD WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE COASTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
REMAINS DISORGANIZED. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 03:23 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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To soon to tell but right now looks to be a rain maker in NC.. If it does develop more like Gale force winds.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 04:15 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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So our little depression isn't dead yet. Seems to be a fighter and after taking the right side of the track for a while it looks like its shifted to the left side of the track guidance. Its still touch and go with this one because if it misses the weakness that the models are forecasting then its time to start watching out.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 04:18 PM |
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Re: GOM/ SE Coast Brewing?
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Actually here's the latest from NHC (11:30 am TWO) on both near home systems.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A NON-TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SOUTHEASTWARD FOR A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.
On the GOM system, my earlier post indicated that it might be sub-tropical. These are hybrid systems that incorporate elements of both mid-latitude and tropical lows, mainly asymmetrical shape with most of their weather on their east side. They can, and have in the past, created tropical storm force-like conditions.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 04:27 PM |
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Re: GOM/ SE Coast Brewing?
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I disagree with the NHC's characterization of the 1014mb low in the Gulf as "associated with an upper low" as the upper low just came into the picture last night while there have been daily surface lows in the northern Gulf. I think it would have been better if they said it was associated with a surface trof and now interacting with an upper low. But that's just me. Looks like another heavy rain day for the Panhandle as assumed.
Low pressure has formed off the SC coast. It's at 1016mb per last NWS posting.
These are the main focuses with North American interests this morning.
Steve
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 04:32 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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I was talking about the low forming off of SC/NC. But 9L feel two things can happen one which the models show is it turn NW and miss US Coast, the other maybe 30 to 40% chance is that keeps on wnw track, if it keeps on the WNW then East coast Florida or NC may be looking at a Cat 2 or 3 knocking on their door late next week.
| wulrich |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 04:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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TD 9 certainly doesn't want to give up. Now that the westward motion has continued, and its still "relatively" week, its seems like its going to miss the connection with Harvey's "weakness."
JB seems to be thinking that this may be a storm for the East Coast next weekend or the early week of the next.
Those people who had a "bad feeling" about it might be right from the get go. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:06 PM |
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Re: GOM/ SE Coast Brewing?
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center of the weak low level in the GOM can be clearly seen at 29.6n and 88.9w or just about 65 miles south of Biloxi... looks like some convection trying to form on the east side but getting sheared... he's the link, set to about 8 loops and click on high...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:07 PM |
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Re: GOM/ SE Coast Brewing?
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Does anyone one have a possible center position on the area off the coast of SC and is their any future track guidance yet? Kind of curious because if it sits over the Gulf Stream, it might could strenghten quickly like alex did last year off Cape Hatteras. Any thoughts?
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression forming east of JAX?
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Looks like our next depression may be forming east of JAX. I see a slight rotation and convection is building. NHC is concerned enough to schedule a recon flight.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
TD 9 certainly doesn't want to give up. Now that the westward motion has continued, and its still "relatively" week, its seems like its going to miss the connection with Harvey's "weakness."
JB seems to be thinking that this may be a storm for the East Coast next weekend or the early week of the next.
Those people who had a "bad feeling" about it might be right from the get go. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
The odds rae more toward this not hitting the U.S then it doing so but that is my opinion.
Edited for content. -Clark
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:21 PM |
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Re: NOGAPS
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Here is an informative read on model education and verification for anyone that is interested. Not that I understand most of it.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm#BAROSKILL
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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******************************************
looking at satellite images it looks as if Harvey is going to be around for awhile, it seems to be slowly moving SE if not stalling out
TD9 is beginning to elongate to the west, and will likely open up into a tropical wave within 48 hours because of the shear; if it holds together, the only land that will be threatened is SE Canada and *possibly* Bermuda
the system off of SC is poorly organized; i only see weak rotation, and i personally think the Gulf system has a better shot than the Atlantic one
other than that, it looks all clear for the weekend behind TD9
*****************
something else i just noticed
except for Dennis, everything this year has had the first TD advisory at 5pm (Dennis was 11pm)
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:30 PM |
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Re: Random AM Thoughts
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Re: upper low near PR and what the fsu MM5 does with it -- well, you're not going to get a good read on what an upper-level low does by looking at surface pressure. For another, the weak impulse that shows up in that area may or may not come from that upper-low...you can't tell based off of the surface pressure. And, it is just that -- weak. The lowest pressure it shows is 1008mb, and not for 4-5 days. That's nothing to write home about. I don't doubt that it might form, but it's not going to be anything to worry about and likely has nothing to do with an upper-level low.
Harvey's doing a nice Franklin imitation, if playing the role a bit better than did Franklin a week or two back. TD 9 keeps trying to fire convection, but it's all on the periphery of the circulation, like last night. The center has become elongated east-west in the past couple of hours, suggesting that the storm might be feeling the negative effects of the shear. It's got to get that convection over the center for some period of time within the next day or it'll likely be declassified by this time tomorrow. Storms are naturally pretty resistent to complete dissipation due to shear, but for a weak storm, this one has held on best it can under the conditions. Given the uncertainty about its survival beyond the weekend, it's not feasible to try to speculate on future track. It should turn back west soon, but the weakness looks like it'll still be there in the ridge to allow it to turn, even for a weak system. Very complex flow pattern unfolding, with any number of possibilities...gotta see whether or not TD9 survives first, though.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:35 PM |
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Re: GOM/ SE Coast Brewing?
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Quote:
center of the weak low level in the GOM can be clearly seen at 29.6n and 88.9w or just about 65 miles south of Biloxi... looks like some convection trying to form on the east side but getting sheared... he's the link, set to about 8 loops and click on high...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Difficult to tell what's going on here. We know there's a low pressure south of Mobile and an ULL is clearly visible over coastal Miss. Winds are W-NW at buoy 42040 64 nm S of Dauphin Island and the winds are S at buoy 42039 115 nm E-SE of P'Cola. Winds at 42039 are now sustained at 17.5 knots, gusting to 27 kn. A whole lot of convection firing in the NE GOM. I can see the spin in the VIS SAT that you are refering to.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:44 PM |
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Re: Leave for a while and see what happens!!
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I looked at latest vis loop for 9L...it looks to be stationary or moving in a cycloidal (cyclonic) loop!! What's up with this?...and the convection that was se of ctr is now ne (due to movement of upper low I believe...shear axis is changing.)
EDIT: OOOPS! I switched sources for the loop , and see I was looking at HARVEY not 9L...my bad! So, it is HARVEY that is doing a loop. Meanwhile..9L looks weak , still moving west to wnw, seems to have picked up.
Low off SC starting to show some cyclonic curvature....and if our little system s of PNS were 100 miles further south!....as it is, it seems to be drifting ESE or E...could make td before the upper low circulation moves it onshore..
Meanwhile...what's that N of Hispaniola???
MM
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:47 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression forming east of JAX?
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I think you are right Ron. And the Gulf system looks like it is getting sheared out again....
MM
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 05:58 PM |
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Re: Leave for a while and see what happens!!
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Good Saturday everyone.....
Something rather strange has been goin on in the past couple of days here in North Georgia and I wonder if it may have some bearing on any tropical systems in the near future.
Normally when thunderstorms develop they, for the most part move somewhat on a west to east pattern, but for the last 72 hours it seems to have reversed course and move the storms through here on an east to west pattern. I think that would have something to do with the low pressure in the gulf and was wondering if this is planned to continue for the foreseable future...
(off topic comments removed)
Jeff
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 06:07 PM |
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Re: Leave for a while and see what happens!!
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Sorry to change subjects here, but I'm beginning to suspect that TD #9 is going to grow in intensity quite a bit if she stays on her present course. Check out the convection that is getting drawn up fron the ITCZ to her SW...impressive...and that is the bottom half of her "S" , and the convection to the NE is the top half. If shear drops off, you can imagine the system pulling together quite nicely within the very large envelope. She's running currently at about a 280 course. Not getting overly concerned, but we need to keep a careful eye on this. With Harvey fizzling, TD # 9 strengthening could pump the ridging that I already see building from the NE to SW between TD #9 and Harvey. Again not saying she will do anything down the road other than push the fishies, but the models are not doing too well with the overall pattern. Cheers!!
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 06:16 PM |
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Re: Leave for a while and see what happens!!
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How did harvey leave a weekness for 9 harveys track did go like that, and also what about the wave behind td it looks like a pretty organize wave, and also how could that make 9 go more westwerd and also what do storm system have to have to give the classification of a invest what do they need to look like i hope someone can answer all these ?'s and sorry about my bad spelling trying to type fast.
Also can someone give me a loop of Alex last year
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 06:38 PM |
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Someting I saw on another message board...
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
A poster gave this link out at another message board...this forecast was produced 12 UTC 6 AUG...produced today.
TS Irene...moving SW...next Tuesday? I'd like to hear some thoughts on this. This product was also put out by TPC/TAFB...which are in conjunction with NHC. Maybe we're going to see some track changes eventually?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 06:48 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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I looked at that link you posted....it's pretty spooky. I really don't know much about these things so any opinion i have would be way off, but i'll give it a try. Seems like they are going a little extreme with it on that map...there would have to be some pretty strong steering currents (you'd think) for the storm to go wnw and suddenly turn the opposite direction. I could see it going more to the west, like towards east coast of fla and perhaps georgia, but not sw into the caribbean.
Then again, stranger things have happened with other storms like Jeanne and i remember another storm looping around again, cant remember what the name is though.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 06:57 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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That is interesting indeed and also interesting how much that track is much the same as the MRFO model track of 00Z today. Not sure if that played into it or not but they are really close.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 07:00 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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Is there much alike between the carolina storm now and alex last year and can i have a loop of alex. Also I think nhc will change td9s track next advisory.
| Ron Basso |
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| Sat Aug 06 2005 07:00 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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Quote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
A poster gave this link out at another message board...this forecast was produced 12 UTC 6 AUG...produced today.
TS Irene...moving SW...next Tuesday? I'd like to hear some thoughts on this. This product was also put out by TPC/TAFB...which are in conjunction with NHC. Maybe we're going to see some track changes eventually?
Kevin, I think, if it survives and latest visible SAT looks to me like it will, that it may miss the weakness left by Harvey and head on a more due west course somewhere near 22N-60W as the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds in the wake of Harvey. HPC indicates the bermuda high to be normal or slightly stronger than normal throught there D+8 means. I believe the 12Z CMC and 06Z FSUmm5 show this happening. We'll see..it's a long way off and TD9 needs to survive its encounter with the ULL and lots of dry air.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 07:02 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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I dont know if this means much, but i checked wunderground and the model runs at 2pm still have the TD going to the northwest. BAMM medium model has it going west and then to the northwest in about 48 hrs.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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Td 9 on IR looks like Convection is Starting to wrap more around what does anyone else think
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
Also what about the Carolina Storm what is it alike alex last year
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 07:19 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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What is that thing off the Gorgia/SC coast? It's definately rotating, but in an anti-cyclonic direction.
As for all the waves and cyclonic lows, looks like we might have a busy week coming up.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 07:25 PM |
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lots going on
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harvey is maybe starting to nudge north now. 9L is generating a good amount of convection again.. it's still displaced under westerly shear, but the storm is deepening nonetheless. shear should lessen tomorrow. it's on a track where you just can't tell whether it will get the harvey wake-weakness or not... might go up and out, or it might get into the western atlantic and back under the ridge. there are model runs showing either scenario and the nhc track up the middle to compensate for the uncertainty... models have switched sides on this thing, too. gut tells me it will strengthen tomorrow and monday and turn northwestward, but i'm not certain. there's some itcz activity south/southwest of 9L.. and odd low trying to develop.. but proximity should keep it inactive. the trailer wave is fairly vigorous but should take a few days to get organized if at all.
northern gulf coast system has been a series of lows that develop near the coast, and redevelop.. but never get any better organized. i don't think it's more than a rainmaker.
east of jacksonville is a different story. it isn't jammed into the coast and isn't beneath an upper low. that thing should make a development run.. and move north or northwest towards the carolinas. it will have to hurry because time is limited. nhc wouldn't talk about reconning it if there wasn't a good chance it'll try to develop.
further southeast near 26/72 there's another low level turning... under easterly shear right now. this feature should migrate wnw per eta and persist, unless the system to its nw develops significantly and entrains it.
should have irene tomorrow... with a modest chance of another system developing close in.
HF 1925z06august
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 07:27 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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Yes Ron, obviously that would be the case in that scenario. Still though, a bit odd to see a product like that. For one, NHC's other products (not advisories, but surface maps etc.) usually follow the guidance of the official track forecasts. And as another point, many of the models still want to show a northward curve at some point.
In turn, that surface map becomes all the more interesting.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 07:34 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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That's an old forecast...look at the initial date.
Harvey and TD 9 look like twins (fraternal rather than identical, but close!) Also, latest vis on TPC page shows another vortex/center SOUTH of existing one...maybe it is reforming to the north, closer to convection...and that little swirl to the S is the old center??
Looks like system off Ga is beginning to wrap up.
Funny how that area can spin up systems fast sometimes (ie, Gaston).
MM
| Old Sailor |
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| Sat Aug 06 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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To me looks like TD9 has moved more to the NW or the center has relocated, guess , see what NHC at about 4:50PM.
Dave
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 08:23 PM |
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Re: Someting I saw on another message board...
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Does anyone here think that the area off SC/GA has the potential of beating td 9 to become ts Irene?
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Yep--5 pm, relocated northward.
Fishspinner??
MM
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Never say Never, TD9 at this point in time to be following the Models,,, there still about a 20 to 30% chance that could keep going West and put the lower half of East coast in Harms way.
dave
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 08:50 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Looking at the latest GFS model (about 11 hours old...should be a new one soon, I think), it shows TD9 remaining weak throughout the 6 days, and has it following Harvey north almost exactly on the same old track.
However, a more intersting point is what it does to that wave behind 09. It is pulling it into a rather strong vortex within 3-4 days.
Also, it shows that low off the FL/AL coast strengthing its vorticy and another swirl coming up in the gulf and heading toward central America (though not strong).
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 09:03 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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N of Hispaniola: run of the mill TUTT cell, an upper-low that has been moving west for days now. Nothing to be concerned with. Should continue west, maybe slowing down.
SC/GA coast feature: if it were to sit there for a few days, sure. Don't foresee much development with this one, though. Probably at best, a repeat of TD 7 from 2003, heading NW inland. Might see something akin to the feature that moved up the east coast at the end of June, but on a different track. Tough to discern if a surface center is there right now; some broad low-level turning just east of Jacksonville earlier has faded, while the mid-level convective feature is obscuring things further NE. Will be watched, but not bullish on development.
FL/AL feature: much easier to discern a surface feature here, but it's weak and tough to tell if it is of a tropical or extratropical nature. Banking somewhere in the middle. Too close to land and too much shear to do anything big, but the weakness should hang around for a few more days near land. If it were further south, it'd have a shot...here, though, not likely.
TD 9: well, the convection finally decided to come closer to the center. Some of the models are perking up with this one a little more down the line, while the official track seems to be slowing down in the long range. More likely to recurve now than to not, but there's no consensus whatsoever towards either option.
Harvey: heading out to sea, earlier indications that it might try to undergo some extratropical development, but in any case...well out of our hair.
Next up: might see the next African wave get classified with an invest in a day or two as it moves further west. It's got a shot, but it's got a little bit of what TD 9 went through to deal with as well. Shouldn't go that far north, which would likely see it meet much the same fate, but probably won't get going until later on down the line.
Elsewhere...the basin's closed south of about 28 N and west of the islands. That upper-low near Hispaniola has coupled with a couple of other cells to create a shearing environment across the region. As it moves west, things will improve, but the southern Gulf and W. Caribbean are probably closed for another week or so.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 09:08 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Could Td 9 Possibly be Spliting
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 09:42 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Quote:
Could Td 9 Possibly be Spliting
What you may be refering to is the other circulation to the north of the low level center..this is an ULL that has been shearing the system for the past 2 days..looks like TD9 is cruising to the west now caught in the low level flow
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 09:44 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Now That Carolina Storm looks a lot like Alex
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 09:52 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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It seems that it may either be wobbling wsw right now or even moving in that general direction. If it keeps up then it will move into a much more favorable area for development.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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In regard to the feature centered slightly north of Hispaniola – while I appreciate you're a moderator here (and thanks by the way) – have you visited the following page this evening?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
My thinking is the feature might appear to be attracting moisture – which admittedly might seem destined for various other systems. My point would be that if the moisture doesn't continue to seem destined for at least some other system then perhaps this particular feature would (at that point) be worth keeping an eye on.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 10:29 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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That is an upper level low (ULL) and will figure in to the surrounding environment, as all upper level features do.
Bill
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 10:37 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Upper lows often do have moisture in association with them; there is nothing in their definition that says that they must be dry features. In fact, the cold air aloft found with these features often helps to trigger convection due to steepened lapse rates (how temperature changes with height) from the surface to mid & upper levels. They can occasionally spin-up surface reflections that can develop, but that is a slow process and there are no signs of this occurring. Further, it often occurs in conjunction with either slow-moving upper-lows and/or those interacting with a tropical wave/pre-existing surface boundary, neither of which are occurring here.
NONAME -- there is no indication that the feature off of the Carolina coast is similar to Alex. The NHC is no longer really looking at this as a candidate for development.
Aside: it looks like there's some interesting interaction going on between the upper-low and TD 9 this evening. The overall feature is still to the north, but a weak impulse has moved down to just north of the depression, helping to keep the storm from moving any more to the north. It is likely helping to enhance the convection on the east side of the storm -- but also keep it on the east side of the storm. It'll have a respite tomorrow as this feature moves away, but there's another impulse due east of Harvey near 48 W that will dive down around the periphery of the larger feature and impact the depression towards Monday. Better conditions lie ahead in terms of both shear and water temperatures, but there's also a good bit of dry air out there as well.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 10:41 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Thank you. I had noticed that this ULL seemed to be maintaining a 'dry half' (so to speak) south of Hispaniola. Now I think I have a better idea as to why that could seem to be the case.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 10:50 PM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Quote:Thank you. I going to try digesting that – in addition to the rest of what you said. In the meantime could a chain of mountains somehow facilitate this spinning-up process?
They can occasionally spin-up surface reflections that can develop, but that is a slow process and there are no signs of this occurring.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 11:30 PM |
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Does anyone think
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does anyone think thia could be a NJ, NY, CT storm..and if so or if its possible what are the odds and could this thing make it to cat 1 or 2 in the current SST's?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 11:45 PM |
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Satallite
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Is it heading a little south of west now? I know its heading west but it almost looks south of west.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 06 2005 11:51 PM |
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Re: Satallite
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I think it is moving generally west, however on the last frame of this loop it does look like a little wobble to the wsw... but its still hard discerning the exact motion on the IR...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
another good link
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 12:00 AM |
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Re: Center relocation
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No, but with a caveat. If you are talking about a system crossing a large mountain range, such as the Rockies, then you can see surface low pressure systems form (these are often called 'Colorado lows') as the vorticity (spin) associated with the mid/upper level feature is stretched vertically, potentially leading to a spin-up at the surface.
In the most general of cases, however, particularly for a feature in the tropics, mountains are not conducive to development of any surface feature, regardless of whether or not there is an upper low present.
Ryan -- way too early to tell, and I'm not even sure which feature you're looking at... The pattern doesn't favor anything coming from the south and getting that far north right now with any semblance of organization.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 01:28 AM |
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QuikSCAT pass
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Latest QuikSCAT pass from ~3-4hr ago largely missed the center of the depression, but suggests some non-rain flagged 35-40kt wind vectors to the north and northeast of the center. The cloud pattern has not improved since the 5p advisory -- the convection has not drawn any closer to the center -- but I think we'll see this one upgraded to Irene at 11pm. In its favor are the comments from the 11a and 5p discussions towards this effect. The innards of the storm are healthy per the latest SSM/I microwave imager pass on the 37GHz band; the convective structures, however, aren't as healthy per all of the other bands & IR imagery. It's not the classic tropical storm by any means, but the fact that it is firing convection to the east of the center suggests that it is a lot closer than yesterday.
We'll see at 11p. No change to the forecast track thinking right now.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 01:42 AM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Thanks for all the info, Clark (and Bill). I was mainly just wondering about the mountains of Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. I was wondering if the "vorticity" (of this particular "ULL") might somehow be able to make use of those four islands and especially their mountains, in ramping-up 'what have you' from the surface, if the circulation in question continues to track more or less along the length of that collection of islands. Thanks again!
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 01:48 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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QuikSCAT pass missed some of the depreesion, but think they still call it a TD, maybe if depression was closer to land they would upgrade it but they have lots of time ,,,other reason I feel may still listed as TD has been moving more west last few hours. But as you say guess we will see at 11PM... Then again they could be sick of calling it TD.
Dave
| Reaper |
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| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:21 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Clark,
You should really listen to Sailor....Not only does he know more than anyone else on this forum, but I also found out this morning that he is my father.
I have been searching for so long too.....:)
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Spoken -- not really. It's not a continuous chain of mountains, disturbing any effect like that, nor are the mountains particularly broad in nature. It's got to be something large like the Rockies to see any noticeable effect...there's little effect off of the Appalachians, for instance, and usually it helps if there is some sort of surface boundary to begin with.
Old Sailor -- no doubt about that. It did largely miss it, but there may be just enough evidence to go ahead and bump it. Guess we'll know in the next half-hour or so.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:27 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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ok i may be gulliable...but is he really your father....lol...if so i think its great...lol...sorry had to add my two cents...so what is this storm doing anyways? any chance of a north carolina/virginia hit?...my dad lives in virginia and im nervous
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:27 AM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Well, the 10:30 (early again tonight!) TWO is out, and it is still saying TD9, so they probably aren't upgrading it.
--RC
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Quote:
ok i may be gulliable...but is he really your father....lol...if so i think its great...lol...sorry had to add my two cents...so what is this storm doing anyways? any chance of a north carolina/virginia hit?...my dad lives in virginia and im nervous
Way to early to know. A lot depends on whether it cuts north through a weakness or decides to ignore it and keep heading west. If it goes north it won't do anything to the US, and will probably not strengthen past a Tropical Storm. If it heads east, it could strengthen rapidly since it will be hitting some good conditions before long. The models are all taking it north, but my personal opinion is never trust the models with a tropical system—they have ways of surprising even the best of models. Wait a few days before you start worrying. It is still well out to sea.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:33 AM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Looks as though TD 9 is moving due west. The westerly shear is apparent on the color IR with the eastern convection blown way to the right. It still looks poorly organized with the LLC out in front of the deep convection. If it stays this weak, NHC may have to think about shifting their track left (south).
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:46 AM |
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Re: Center relocation
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Yeah, and the 11p discussion confirms that. Interestingly enough, no mention of the QuikSCAT pass in the discussion....not sure if they just decided to not mention it, or not use it altogether given the satellite appearance of the depression. Oh well.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:46 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Clark is a very good Meteorologist , He is one of the few on here that gives you the information without the added BS. He is ok in my book..
Don't think you are my son I have 3 of them ages 50,46,42 and a Daughter 51, not to mention 14 grandkids.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:47 AM |
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Re: Center relocation
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How can they say its moving wnw if it went from 19 to 18.9 latitude in six hours. Sounds pretty stupid to me.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:47 AM |
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TD 9
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Per the latest NHC Discussion on TD 9.
They are not giving it any odds on staying a TD. And even lesser odds on intesifying.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/070228.shtml
Wishcasting - Act of "wishing" a storm would come your way to "add excitement". If you are really this bored, you need another hobby. This is not the thing to do. The cliché, "Don't wish too hard... You may get what you wish for", really applies here.
From the general definitions page.
http://flhurricane.com/general.php
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:54 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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If I can speak from past experience your dad should be okay with this one. I used to live in the SE VA (tidewater) area. It is very rare for them to get hit, and when they do, the storms typically track through NC first. A direct hit on that area, while not impossible is highly improbable. While from time to time the remains that come through can bring damage, the effects tend to be from tree damage (on power lines, homes, etc). Meteorologically speaking, I can't tell you about this particular storm, but hopefully my personal experiences can set your mind at ease.
Just doing a quick search on the NOAA site, only 12 hurricanes have passed within 50 nautical miles of Virginia Beach.
http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:14 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Thank you so very much for that info that was nice....we watch alot of Family guy and i know the episode u got ur quote from..very good one... im just hoping that he doesnt get flooded out again...hes in the Gloucester Pt area...right by the water...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:20 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Quote:
http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html
Great site! Thanks!
------------
GFS and GFDL aren't being kind to TD9, dissipating it within a few days and curving it north.
NOGAPS, on the otherhand, brings it stronger and keeps it heading west.
Will be interesting to see which model is more accurate.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:40 AM |
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wake me up
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Can I put in a call for when the hurricane season resumes again.
TD 9 is nothing to look at really.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:53 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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here is a pix of the latest IR loop of TD 9 and while it is hard to pinpoint the exact center, this is where I think it is, see the black circle... if this be the case noticed the convection building on the NE side.... its also possible the center could be just west of this location but from the IR loop I think I'm close
here is the IR sat loop link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
here is the IR sat loop link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:58 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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I was just looking at that Frank. It seems like the convection is "trying" to wrap around. But, it always seems to look better at night than during the day to me.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 04:05 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Just a correction Frank. If your center is the black circle, that convection would be on the NW portion....even better.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 04:09 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Steve, your absolutely right,... my bad, this was my first attempt to put an image in a post.... in my haste I should have stated NW and not NE....
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 04:19 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Looking at this loop perhaps the center is still west of where I had put the center and the convection is actually NE of the center... I think the NE was right but I might have missed the center..... hard to tell.... another view for those as bored as I am
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 04:21 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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I wonder how much more that ULL will dig. If it runs 9 down it could kill it. On the other hand, it should get squeezed between Harvey and 9 and a piece of a ridge elongated SW to NE and may fill.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 04:33 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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not to mention all the dry air in front of it..... I'll tell you this, if it can get convection wrapped around the center it has a shot.. look at this loop... if the convection is NW of the center per this loop then TD 9 might have a shot... you be the judge
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 04:36 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Is it just me or has TD9, and most TDs look better at night?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:23 AM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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TD 9 is looking better tonight, though it is a little unclear as to where exactly the center is located -- as evidenced by the good discussion above. Continuity would place it just west of the current small blowup of convection, but there are signs of either multiple centers (with another to the north) or of the center reforming to the east. My best guess is that the center does agree with continuity and is just west of the convective blowup, while the "banding" feature you see is more indicative of the mid-level circulation. Still, it's an improvement. Dvorak estimates were very low with Franklin and it was categorized higher...ditto Harvey...and given the QuikSCAT pass from earlier and the current convective blowup, I think we have Irene on our hands...figure the NHC will concur at 5a. Nothing much to write home about, really, but another marker in the tallybook for this season.
As for storms looking better at night: it's due to a feature called the diurnal convective maximum. I can't explain it well, nor is there a very good explanation available online, but in general tropical convection tends to peak in the hours leading to daybreak (as opposed to continental convection, which tends to peak from mid-afternoon to sunset).
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:31 AM |
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Models and TD 9
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It's been my impression that models generally don't perform well with tropical depressions. In the sense that the models generally don't handle the relatively weak pressure and small size involved in a weak system. They can be good at picking out possible development, but often start creating systems out of thin air (though you can use those systems to point point *possible* activity).
Once a storm has developed, then the models can perform better with direction and where the storm will end up. TD 9 is a great example of that. The system is being sheared, but the shear isn't killing the storm, in fact, I'd be willing to say TD 9 was and still does have tropical storm force winds. So long as the system has developed storms, and have a good LLC, they're pretty durn hard to kill off unless they run into land or cooler waters. (that's not a scientific fact, just my observations)
Storms can open up into a wave, but that's actually fairly uncommon.
I think the sats are in eclipse or keyholed so we're not going to get a new pic for a little while, but the last fix I had on the center was just a hair due west of the blow up of storms at 3:15. We'll know more in the morning, though I still think it's a tropical storm
-Mark
PS whoever developed this IR-RGB enhanced loop deserves a cookie, it's great, because you can still actually pick out the LLC if you pay attention....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-rgb-loop.html
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 08:41 AM |
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Re: Models and TD 9
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5 am advisory is out - center jumped north again and NHC seems to think 9 will strengthen a bit in the next day...
Guess TD 9's on again and could be off again later I guess ... as weird as everything's been lately
Quote:
Satellite imagery indicates that the center of the depression has
re-formed north of the previous advisory position. The depression
is expected to move generally toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
...17 km/hr for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Thunderstorm activity has increased near the center of the
depression during the night...and slow strengthening is possible
during the next 24 hours. The depression could become a tropical
storm later today or tonight.
'shana
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 11:41 AM |
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Re: Models and TD 9
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg
Looking at the first visibles it shows the center much less exposed than in the past couple of days meaning that Irene may not be far to be named maybe later this morning or afternoon.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 12:03 PM |
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Re: Models and TD 9
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Well looks like td 9 may mature after all. Thing is, last night nobody, after the 11pm discussion gave this system a chance. GFS & GFDL were dissipating the storm, now one of them is calling for it to become a hurricane in 4 days! NHC track has it going wnw then turning n in the 5 day period. If this occurs, then this will be east of Bermuda a no threat to no land at all. Does this track and strenghth of this system seem correct due to the way the atmosphere is acting right now and can we put any confidence in ANY model at this time. J.C.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 12:44 PM |
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diurnal convective maximum
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Clark just mentioned the diurnal convective maximum, and I made a thread about it a while back in the hurricane ask tell forum, if any one is interested in his more detailed answer. Good stuff.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 01:29 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Think we have TD9 up graded to TS at 11:00AM by NHC. In some ways glad to see a S, this way it should track better per the Models runs, TD and waves trend to track to the west not following the Models.
Dave
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 01:50 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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should be close to having another ts at 11pm
TD9 looks much better this morning and still has some shear, but is holding its own...
here's an forecast look at 48hrs....might help with folks
the forecasted ridge to build
48hrs forecast
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:00 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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07/1145 UTC 20.2N 44.8W T2.0/2.0 09 -- Atlantic Ocean
numbers are up...but latest sats are not looking good....shear is back and low center looks exposed....
nice to see the 11am on harvey is and hour + early...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:32 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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I don't think its looking all that good right now based on the latest GOES vis sat loops... hints of perhaps some stacking problems as the LLC is now somewhat exposed again and back to the SE you can see perhaps another circulation, looks to be in the mid levels... TD 9 is struggling again... strange appearance on the vis at the moment
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:34 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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think NRL is calling it a ts now
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:37 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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WTNT02 KNGU 071502
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM IRENE (09L) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 45.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 45.0W
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:40 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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someone hit the enter key /send key to fast on harvey
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 21...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005
CORRECTS ADVISORY POSITION FROM EARLIER INADVERTENT TRANSMISSION
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005
...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... EARLIEST NINTH STORM ON RECORD ...
at this rate....everything is going to be a record
great discussion too.....by franklin
little note at end----
*IRENE IS THE EARLIEST NINTH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE
OLD MARK BY 13 DAYS. NORMALLY BY THIS DATE ONLY TWO NAMED STORMS
HAVE FORMED.*
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 02:54 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Does 9 Have Two Centers of Circulation Look at Attachment
| Misfit Toys |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:04 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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What is shear? And how does impact hurricanes? Positive or Negative?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:11 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Quote:
What is shear? And how does impact hurricanes? Positive or Negative?
Shear is winds in the atmosphere that are detrimental to the development of hurricanes. These winds blow the cloud tops off of the centers much like we have seen this year with Franklin, Harvey, and now, Irene. Hope that helps.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:11 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Deleted by Moderator... double post.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:23 PM |
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Irene
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Does anyone think this could be anything other than a fish spinner?
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:35 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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I'm not impressed by all the talk this year of numbers and named storms and the earliest this and that. What I am happy about is that so far, only one storm has caused any major concern for the U.S. Mainland.
Hopefully we will continue to have a bunch of weak Atlantic storms that are only a threat to mariners.
As far as the records go, as the old saying says, Records are meant to be broken.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:52 PM |
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Re: QuikSCAT pass
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Well at least the low in the Gulf never materialized. We actually have sun here for the first time in 5 days. Maybe I can start to put my fence back up...on second thought I think I will wait for November....
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:53 PM |
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new thread
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new thread on Irene
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 04:16 PM |
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Re: new thread
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Quote:
new thread on Irene
WHERE.....I See no new thread
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 04:24 PM |
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Re: new thread
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The new thread on Irene is in the Storm Forum. Its not a news talkback.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:18 PM |
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Re: A fluke
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Seems NHC wanted to upgrade to Irene real bad...they jumped the gun...looks like an open wave right now, even though there is a small circulation center.A lot of times they would ignore a quiksat like that...I think the upgrade was an error- premature in any case. Still think it is a goner.
Yep, it appears to be a fishspinner, almost any way you look at it.
Looking at the basin wide pic this morning, looks more like (a normal) JUNE..ugh! There is a disturbance N of Panama that looks to be moving NNW, but there is a LOT of shear north of it.
There are so many upper lows and so much shear...sure doesn't look like August. Ironic.
This will change with time, and agree with others that the season is likely (at least until September) to have 'bursts' of storms.
My 2 cents.
MM
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:31 PM |
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Re: A fluke
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think you're a little too ready to call irene dead. it has survived and slowly strengthened under shear. the center has relocated twice. nonetheless they've snagged satellite-derived t.s. winds on it. it's probably had t.s. winds in the convective bursts since friday. the global models that were killing it have switched back to having it survive... for a central atlantic recurvature late next week. i think that's probably how it's going to go.
HF 1731z07august
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:32 PM |
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Re: A fluke
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Doesn't The Weather Channel use the tracks that the NHC uses? Funny how now that the storm is named, TWC doesn't have a projected path for Irene. Odd, but not a big deal.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:33 PM |
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Re: A fluke
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Hank - Irene, in your opinion, will head out to sea and only be a problem for shipping and the fishies?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:39 PM |
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Re: A fluke
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MapMaster - I agree with Hank - i dont think Irene will affect land, but i think it will strengthen some before it's done and over.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:40 PM |
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Re: A fluke
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I dunno, MM. The LLC is a pretty vigorous one on visible satellite imagery. It's a heavily sheared system, but so was Franklin and so is Harvey. The QuikSCAT pass was pretty conclusive (high-res shaded at http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_byu_at_image21/byu_hires20052190759_09.png) and continues the trend of development evidenced from the nighttime pass Friday night, Saturday night, and into Sunday morning with stronger winds as the convection -- admittedly removed from the center -- got going. There's a mid-level feature just SE of the system that is obscuring things, even on visible imagery, but overall the surface circulation is going strong.
Unfortunately, all of the recent microwave imager passes missed the storm, so we don't have that tool to better diagnose the storm's structure. Admittedly as well, the system did look better earlier -- more coincident with the QuikSCAT pass -- but I don't see a lot to suggest that the intensity is on the high side. They've been using QuikSCAT a lot more with storms far from land as a supplement to the Dvorak technique, which in itself is not perfect, and the two are in pretty good agreement at this time. I do agree though...this one is looking more and more like one for the fish.
Just my two cents as well...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:43 PM |
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Re: A fluke
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Quote:
looks like an open wave right now, even though there is a small circulation center.
an open wave by definition does not have a circulation center, hence the term 'open'
this is a very weak system but does have the closed low necessary for continued classification
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:52 PM |
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Re: A fluke
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Hence my phraseology- "looks" as opposed to, is.
MM
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 06:03 PM |
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Administrative Notes
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For some of our newer posters (and a few of our older ones):
It seems like every year I have to post something like this - and this year is no exception. From the Site Usage Rules:
"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."
The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. CFHC is not a Chat Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way. Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this.
ED
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 06:57 PM |
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Latest Sat (Visible)
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Irene looks like she is going under a heavy shear right now. I know it was Clark earlier who mentioned there was a seperate mid-level circulation to the southeast. And it is especially apparent right now. I wonder if it survives today. Also, is the mid-level flow to the west on the southern side as what appears to be the mid-level center is moving southwest. In the event that these two split, if a new low level center fired up under the mid-level circulation, would it still be called Irene?
Here is the satallite by the way:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 07:00 PM |
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Re: Latest Sat (Visible)
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The NHC said that Irene would encounter shearing for a few more days and after that it's anyone's guess. It could go bye bye, it could miss the ridge and go west, it could get caught up in between the two and head out to sea. I'd like to see this thing just disappear, but that is unlikely, in my opinion.