MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:47 PM |
Uncertainty Again with Irene
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7 AM Update
Irene remains a tropical depression, and may still hold that today. When a storm is this weak, the baroclinic models tend to do better (ala bamm, bamd, etc) so the westward trend may continue. The edge of the cone is approaching the North Carolina coast, but travels all the way down to Florida and still can support the recurve to sea. In other words, in perspective, the storm is still a depression, but is now on the watch list for the East coast of the United States.
Original Update
Irene, still a weak depression, has survived it's bout of almost falling apart. Giving time for the situation ahead of it to change. Irene will stay north of the Caribbean islands.
The future track has trended toward the west, and it has persisted a bit. Some of the models have fallen in suit, therefor the call of "Out to Sea" is no longer a good call to make.
Currently, the most likely track is out to sea, or near Bermuda. But if the current trends persist that could change as well. The "cone of error" will be very large a few days out, which means it's worth watching again for the east coast.
Originally I expected Irene to gain a bit of strength, it never did, and now it's finally emerging from the more hostile situation, aka the bad shear zone, it encountered, slightly further west. It has the chance to become a hurricane in a few days as conditions gradually improve for it.
Now it's poised to become a tropical storm by sometime tomorrow.
So beyond a few days, the current forecast track is really complex right now. That's the best way to put it. I'm still finding plenty of ways to keep Irene off the coast, but not as many as even yesterday, but a fair amount. What worries me most is the ridging forecast by some models toward the north, which could force it more west.
So basically, the "all clear" I mentioned in the last update is brought down (always watch the tropics!), and it's now more of a wait and see. If it were to affect land, it is more likely for the Carolinas and points north, but assuming the ridging changes, even further south is still possible. Recurve still remains even higher, assuming Irene can hold together. For Florida, the chance of Irene affecting us is very low, in fact other than watching for trends, I would almost rule it out. The chances grow higher as you get further north, and highest out to sea.
More will be coming as we learn it, but we'll keep watching it to see how the trends persist over the next few days. It's important to note, that Irene still may not survive. It is only a depression at the moment.
Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Irene
Animated Model Plot of Irene
Model Plot of Irene (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Quikscat image of Irene
Weather Underground model plots of Irene
Irene Sphagetti Plot from BoatUS
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:54 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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This is a longshot, but do you feel there is a chance at all for Irene to make it into the GOM? I live on the west coast of Florida and most storms that cut through the middle usually go into the gulf and go towards northern gulf coast like Alabama, Miss, Fla Panhandle.....even New Orleans. What do you think of this scenerio? Is it possible Irene could cut a swath through Fla and re-emerge into the GOM?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:56 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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No, it's too far north now and too far east to do that, and it would go against the recurve, which is what I think it will do, still.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:58 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Ok i was just wondering - some on here have talked about the possibility of Irene hitting South Florida...it's a little disheartening, to say the least.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:05 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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We're gonna be moderating the main posts heavily for this one, the complexity of it is going to force it. Check the forecast lounge for things like that, June.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:15 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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What are the chances of florida getting hit by next week?
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:19 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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I really don't think anyone with any "real" knowledge about these storms could give you an honest answer to that question.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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i agree with Mike C, it appears as time goes on, the Carolina's northward look more favorable..this is one everyone should watch closely on, but a question for you Mike C...does a rapid intensification look possible, and willt his intensification affect the track of the storm?
Ryan
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:27 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Food for thought...
If it's okay w/ the mods, I'm going to post a link to another forum where a pro met posted his opinion on Irene.
The highlights:
dont see Irene making landfalll North of 33N and may not make north of 30n before she reaches 80 W...the Ridge over the SW states and SW Atlantic Ocean will be in place and LOCKED in....If I had to make the call now I see a 50% chance of Cat 3 and 25% of cat 4
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=44650
Wow. That's something to chew on. As a nonmeteorologist, this has been a fascinating storm to watch. It really seems like the quote from a discussion on Emily earlier this year (forgive me I forget which disco), "Climatology is out the window this year," could very well be prophetic words. Who would have thunk a storm that far north, that far east could threaten the southeast coast? Never happened before...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:28 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Honestly I can its 50-50 thats the best anyone can do right now
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:31 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Yeah, links to other sites are fine if relevant. Anyway, he's going bullish on the Alaskan block. Probably too much so, but it's easy to get caught up in the moment on what appears to be a sudden change of the forecast. What he's talking about isn't out of the question. But the fact that he's talking beyond 120 hours makes it mostly speculation. I disagree with it, but it's possible.
As far as the bahamas, it looks like it is going to stay north of the islands.
I may be wrong, of course, so keep a watch out and check the National Hurricane Center's updates anyway.
| dem05 |
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| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:43 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Whoa! Whoa! I definately love the enthusiasm of everyone, so I hope you can all pardon me for saying this, but there is enough uncertainty on a five day track. I'm growing a little concerned about where things are going in the threads. I feel we're all getting ahead of ourselves here. Seems like the language is staring to rule in or rule out 8-10 day tracks. A meteorologist once told me 6 days and beyond is a crystal ball forecast. Maybe we should just have fun with speculating on the next 5 days. I fear other people with a lesser understanding of the weather may read these posts and take it to heart, whether in Burmuda, New England, The Caarolinas, Florida, or elsewhere. I know its a lot of fun, but I hope you understand my thoughts here.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:47 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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A question for the mets and MikeC (thanks for your frank discussion):
Will NOAA send their research jet out to measure the ridge to get more concrete readings of the high as it builds in over the next 24 to 48 hours? I would think that would be prudent considering the recent model runs and position of Irene, but your input as to why they would or would not is of interest here.
Thanks in advance. You guys are doing a great job!
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:52 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Quote:
A question for the mets and MikeC (thanks for your frank discussion):
Will NOAA send their research jet out to measure the ridge to get more concrete readings of the high as it builds in over the next 24 to 48 hours? I would think that would be prudent considering the recent model runs and position of Irene, but your input as to why they would or would not is of interest here.
It doesn't look like they will tomorrow at least, I'd say thursday or Friday they'll start sending the planes out there. Daniel might know more about it.
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danielw
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| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:12 AM |
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RECON
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Thanks for the vote Mike.
Actually the Gulfstream has been conducting SAL-Sahara Dust Research. Collecting data south of Irene's envelope.
I know they flew on onday, but I'll have to check and see if they were flying today.
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:15 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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All the sudden BAMM!! out comes the perdictions for the Carolina's. If this storm has shown us anything its exactly how unperdictable she is. I have one word ANDREW ! Andrew was perdicted to hook sharp and be a fish spinner. It busted through (and under) the trough in its way and went SSW for the last 48 hours turning into a monster CAT5. Im not perdicting South Florida at all. No one is out of the woods. A perdiction for the Carolinas is fools gold right now. Best thing for all on the east coast is to stay tuned. Dont wait to be prepared. Be prepared ! This is going to be an unforgiving season (already has). Check in everyday. SAME BAT TIME, SAME BAT CHANNEL.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:24 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Why do people keep bringing up Andrew?? Didn't you read Clarks post earlier?? Clark is a Met and he said conditions are NOT the same as was in 1992 when Andrew intensified. Strengthen it may, but no one is saying it will be as rapid or intense as Andrew or other major storms. You are close to wishcasting if you ask me........get your facts straight before you start telling people Irene will intensify or even have a chance to intensify into a major storm. You have no clue, like the rest of us, what this storm will do or where it will go. The NHC says it may head more NW in a couple days.....and until they say different, i go with their "perdictions".
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:29 AM |
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Enough!
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It appears we are getting close to a personal attack here.
I'm calling this round over.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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You are correct. Models will always change their solutions at their interval updates once all equations are factored in with updated variables. I am sure the NHC is up to speed. They have performed superbly so far this season; although there is uncertainty about Irene I agree that it is far too early to draw parallels; each system is unique- and as it has been said many times before- we need to wait for the future updates to see what changes the model solutions bring us.
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danielw
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| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:37 AM |
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RECON
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Now back to business. Someone asked about RECON.
They made several drops yesterday, but I don't see any data from today.
Yesterday's drops, at first glance, don't reflect any more wind at low level than you might find in your back yard.
But that was 30 hours ago, and weather changes.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:41 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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I have never trusted the BAM models and i am not so sure that the NHC does either. They talk more about the other models, like NOGAPS, UKMET, etc...than they do about BAM. Both the deep and medium models always seem to cluster close together and always seems to be away (west and or south) of the other models. They are just models and can't be relied on solely. Like the latest run i have seen....Both BAM models have Irene moving more west and wsw in the insuing days whereas the other models are more westerly than previous days - they are not as extreme as the BAM.
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:42 AM |
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Re: Enough!
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June i was not wish casting. actually i made no prediction at all.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:46 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty
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Quote:
All the sudden BAMM!! out comes the perdictions for the Carolina's...
BAMM, funny that you should mention the outlier of the models.
The 18Z run, At 120 hours.
BAMD- 27.4N 70.1W
BAMM-25.9N 70.4W
A98E- 27.8N 70.1W
LBAR- 28.9N 66.0W
Averaging would equal somewhere near 27.5N and 68.2-69.2W
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:48 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Looking at the various images in the SFWMD model loop for Irene, it looks like the BAMM has been pretty consistently pointing to where Irene is now, for the last few days. The BAMD looks like it would come in 2nd place, as far as how the models have predicted Irene's past performance so far, including its present location. Is the BAMM a 'good' model vs. the others, and is it surprising that it has performed well and apparently better than the other models listed there?
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:51 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty
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http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s9-1992s2
Look at the end of the forcasted pathfor Irene. That should be the in more favorable conditions correct? That was the point i was trying to make. Before the All Mighty One went on its west track it was forcasted to go out to sea. Sorry if it sounded like i was wishcasting.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:53 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty
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As long as Irene stays a TD's she will track west like most all TD. 270 to 280 Degrees, My feel on Irene she stay a TD for next 24 hours then maybe weak TS then more of a West Northwest track think models will show West North a little at a time...
Dave
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:54 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty
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whats happening too irene? shes gone
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:56 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty
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The circulation is still there.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:57 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty
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Looking at this IR loop Irene looks terrible at the moment... she's still sucking up a lot of dry air from the west and south, almost looks like an open wave, hard to tell off these night time loops ... check the second link...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/watl_ir4_loop.php
GOES East Channel 4 loop on left side of page
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
but she's been fighting these same elements for the past several days and is still around, a tough old bird I must admit... I do believe conditions could improve as she moves to the west , the upper low off to the NW hints of weaking and I believe the ridge will build back in, reducing both shear and the dry air.. and continue her on the westard track... then again I could be totally wrong...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:06 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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After doing a bit of searching, I think I can answer my own question. BAMM is Beta and Advection Model Medium-layer, which is intended for weaker systems, while the BAMD is the Deep-layer version, intended for stronger TCs. So as long as it stays weak, it makes sense the BAMM would be working.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:18 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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well as weak as Irene looks at the moment perhaps the most likely scenario will be the BAMM.. this model may work well because storms of this nature tend to be steered by low-level winds. Here are the plots for the latest BAMM model runs
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
ooops, wrong link... sorry
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:22 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Irene is struggling, the environment ahead of her is real messy wtih the ULL from the west going to duke it out with her. This really wasn't expected by the NHC, but the ULL has been moving easterly. If she survives this jaunt, look out. Cheers!!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:35 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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check out this link... could be the clue as to where Irene eventually goes.. .appears to me that we have a decent flow pattern for a weak system to continue west.... my opinion only
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:58 AM |
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Re: RECON
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Quote:
Now back to business. Someone asked about RECON.
They made several drops yesterday, but I don't see any data from today.
Yesterday's drops, at first glance, don't reflect any more wind at low level than you might find in your back yard.
But that was 30 hours ago, and weather changes.
Thank you very much. I was searching for any data as tracking these storms is a hobby (and neccissary evil) where I live. I was hoping to see some data about the strength of the ridge so hopefully we'll get some info on that soon. That will tell the story about this storm, even though it looks horrible on the latest pics. Thank you again.
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:58 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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The 700-850 on that link looks pretty scary.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:59 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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There is trouble for florida if the BAMM model holds well
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:59 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Ship passing the central of Irene waves under 2 meters, wind 10KTs. pressure 1011MB, looks like the LLC maybe lifting to a MLC or she becoming a Wave.
Dave
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:03 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html
Click on the 700-850 on this link.
im no expert but that looks ugly.@ what altitude are those steering currents? anyone?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:07 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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convection trying to fire up again in the NE section.... hard to believe waves are less than two meters in the center of a TD... I unfortunately was in a TD in the GOM and the waves were at least 10-15 feet high... scared the stew out of me
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
| Old Sailor |
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| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:12 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Frank can only tell you what the ship reported, but they(ships) have been right most of the time they are in the area at the surface..
Dave
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:15 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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think Irene is on the way back.
i think the Low level center may once again have redeveloped a little to the sw of track....hard to tell, but convection is on the way back on the east side of system. I can see a mid-level swirl, but not sure how its doing down on the surface. If a ship report was that weak, (what was it's location on the report) , it could mean to me that irene may have a new center.
?http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Hard to believe shipping traffic would be anywhere near the storm. We did it for training.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:21 AM |
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Dave, certainly not doubting you just surprised the seas are that calm in a TD.... but stranger things have happened with this crazy system so far... why should it be any different now...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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this was the only ship report i could find, but is not close to center....
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TIDE
(GMT) nm ° ° kts kts ft sec sec ° in in °F °F °F mi ft
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C6KD8 S 0000 22.30 -62.80 108 247 70 8.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 30.11 +0.02 83.5 84.2 75.7 12.4 -
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:27 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene *DELETED*
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Post deleted by StormTrooper
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:28 AM |
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Irene's winds
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I checked yesterday's dropsonde reports from Irene.
I don't find any winds above 12 kts in the last 150 meters of dropsonde fall. That would be the last 492 feet of fall.
Deep Layer Mean winds were less than 13 knots.
I didn't check all of the reports. Mainly the first few and last few drops.
OBS 1-6 and 20-23.
Those reports, 36 hours old, would seem to back up the ship reports of light winds and seas.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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winds was 8.9
dir was 70
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.p...ot=A&time=4
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:32 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Let's try and format the above post so it's readable:
Code:
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TIDE
(GMT) nm ° ° kts kts ft sec sec ° in in °F °F °F mi ft
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C6KD8 S 0000 22.30 -62.80 108 247 70 8.9 - - - - - 30.11 +0.02 83.5 84.2 75.7 12.4 -
Note: I took out some of the dashes in the center. The Pressure makes sense in that spot, and the columns line up, so there may have been extra dashes originally.
P.S. If you are posting monospaced stuff, you need to use the [ code ] tag.
(if an admin wants to move my fix of the post into the above, it would save space
)P.P.S - by the time I got it formatted, it was 6 posts later on - BUSY night here!
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:35 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene *DELETED*
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First of all Irene is not a storm as of now. ships do travel thru small lows to save time. I was in the Navy for 43 yrs, retired as a Navy Capt.
Dave
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:35 AM |
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Ship report
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Quote:
this was the only ship report i could find, but is not close to center....
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TIDE
(GMT) nm ° ° kts kts ft sec sec ° in in °F °F °F mi ft
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C6KD8 S 0000 22.30 -62.80 108 247 70 8.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 30.11 +0.02 83.5 84.2 75.7 12.4 -
22.3N 62.8W 108nm at 247degrees(WSW); wind 070 at 8.9kts;30.11 baro; +0.02 tendancy; 83.5 air temp; 84.2 sea temp; 75.7 dew pt; 12.4 visibility; tide missing
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Looks like we have some very smart people saying it COULD be an Andrew type,and other smart people saying that is crazy.Will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:36 AM |
A Few Cautions
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When a Moderator states that a particular line of thought needs to end, then it needs to end immediately. Right now the concentration on Irene's track should be for the next 4 or 5 days - or perhaps even better - on whether or not it will survive.
A reminder about my earlier comments regarding one-line posts. If they have no relevance, they will be discarded.
Finally, please attempt to stay on-topic by putting your post in the proper Forum. Lets all calm down a little and see how this tropical cyclone evolves - there is still plenty of time to watch it before anybody has to be concerned.
Thanks for your help with these issues. No response is necessary.
ED
| Ryan |
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| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:38 AM |
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Do You Think
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Irene isnt looking as good anymore, someone before said Irene would be a TS by tonight, does anyone still thinkn this is possible with Irene's current health?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE AUG 09 2005
...IRENE MOVING WESTWARD...NOT STRENGTHENING
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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well this particular ship report is meaningless relative to understanding the strength of Irene because it is so far away from the estimated center and is on the west side... ~500 miles away... but it sure is easy to read
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:56 AM |
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Ship Report
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Frank, this is the closest ship report to the 5 PM position that I can find.
ZCBD3 S 0000 25.50 -50.10 293 53 30 22.9 - - - - - 30.16 +0.03 80.6 - 75.4 12.4 -
translated. 25.5N 50.1W 293nm at 053degrees( NE ) of Irene. NE QUAD.
Wind 030 (NE) at 22.9kts.
Baro 30.16 up 0.03in over last 3 hrs.
edit: wind would seem to indicate a displaced center.
It should be from 090-135 in the NE Quad. Theoretically speaking. And with a vertically stacked storm.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:07 AM |
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Re: Ship Report
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Tropical Depression IRENE Discussion 11:00 PM 08/09/2005,
I'm glad NHC has a fix on Irene called a shot in the dark....
BUT IS NEVERTHELESS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
BUT IT IS ALSO A
REFLECTION OF THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IRENE WILL BE HEADED BY
THAT TIME. 3 to 5 days out...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:00 AM |
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A few notes
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After seeing some of the discussions tonight and some of the threads around here, I just wanted to post a couple of notes.
While I may have the title "meteorologist" by my name, that doesn't mean I'm always right. Nothing I -- or anyone else, for that matter, professional or not -- say with regards to forecasting these storms should be taken as gospel. While I do not believe the threat for this storm to become a major hurricane is there, and strongly disagree about bringing up references to Hurricane Andrew in almost any circumstance, that doesn't mean that things will always turn out like we hope.
As Rick on boat mentioned, these storms are very unpredictable. As always, my forecasts and thinking are provided for guidance, nothing more. We just need to watch and see where this storm is going, as I and others have said, and we'll know more about the storm in a day or two. It may not be the most popular thing to say, but given what we know and don't know about these storms, it's about all we can do right now.
That said, I'm probably going to stick more to general forecasts and educational posts from hereon out, rather than getting into discussions. As always, I'm happy to answer questions via PM and such, but I'll leave the discussions for what it should be...for you guys.
-Clark
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:15 AM |
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t.d. irene heading out to sea... no threat to land?
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thought i'd use the old header from a couple days ago when Irene was supposed to have recurved already so as to keep things fair and balanced after all.
speaking of wishcasting... every time there's a weak storm moving north of the islands progged to come west the references to Andrew start.. Andrew did this, Andrew did that.. a cat 5 analog is after all the best thing to use in every situation, as cat 5 hurricanes happen almost every week. really, i saw some smart person toss in dora of 1964... not bad. dora was already a great deal stronger, but the evolving pattern may be something of that ilk.
anywho, the status. Irene is being sheared at different heights... northerly shear very high up, sw shear associated with the upper trough that missed it at the outflow levels. this pattern caused Irene's brief improvement overnight to result in a decoupling today.. the mlc is still trailing the LLC a tad at this hour. dry environment, persisting shear and stack problems (real disorganization in my book) are keeping it moving just south of west and not allowing it to strengthen. of course there are still models killing Irene (gfdl and lots of the globals have been losing it for days).. but Irene isn't going to die. the scenario that bastardi outlined is coming into play with the escape hatch being the reorganization of the ridge around fri-sat. if Irene is far enough north at that time.. it'll do something like felix 1995 did. if Irene isn't... it'll come west like a rocket next week and hit somebody like a ton of bricks around wed. Irene has probably been at t.s. status all day (and yesterday... t-numbers are usually a little low on sheared systems with sporadic convection... the LLC with Irene has been solid). should get the official upgrade tomorrow and move west a little more quickly.. slow down around the weekend.. and either meander near bermuda next week or be accelerating and deepening under the ridge. potential impact is still tuesday, august 16th at earliest. it isn't certain by any means... but the configuration is there if the storm evolves correctly to verify what joe b has cooking up.
other areas... wave train is depressed, but an ITCZ focal area near 45w may activate as a tropical wave approaches. there's good low level convergence, a kick from a wave may start something. there's already a weak trough trailing se from Irene leading up from there.. there's the potential pathway.
that little swirl i was eyeballing yesterday tracked south of puerto rico.. showed well on radar.. then there it was running south of hispaniola today. tomorrow morning it should be passing jamaica if it hasnt' become indistinct. hostile shear conditions present, but they are lessening. that little bugger had better be gone tomorrow.. it's like an baby evil clown or something. creepy.
still waiting on the home brew. not expecting. there's a couple of weak impulses moving up ahead of the shortwave near the mid atlantic (hopefully what will pull Irene out of from the starting gate)... nothing doing. weak low still near the fl/ga/al confluence... keeping it moist over the southeast day after day.
t.s. fernanda in the eastpac has come up, so the atlantic should go active in a week or so. that relationship works often enough in this type of season. the ensemble means have ridging near the east coast for days... better hope the ridge is amplified rather than zonal to the east.. otherwise this is going to be a long month.
HF 0515z10august
(personal reference removed)
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:20 AM |
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Last 2 QuickScat passes
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Am I reading this incorrectly, orwere the past 2 QuikScat passes of Irene unable to find the LLC? Not too surprising, given the disorganization and perhaps re-configuration of the storm, but it did catch my attention.
Depends on what you are reading~danielw
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:03 AM |
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Evolution of Longwave Pattern must be factored in future mvmt of Irene
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I'm a little surprised you didn't factor the longwave pattern into Irene. As early as yesterday's 06Z run; not current 06Z run mentioned the possibility of strong ridging over Alaska which would induce a deeper longwave trof over the NW to Mid US thus induce stronger ridging over the W Atlc which it appears to be what's in play, though the new run doesn't indicate as strong a trof in the mid US, iit continues to amplify the SE ridge through 120 hours. Thus far the 06Z GFS is the consensus model of choice with current features. Irene continues to move due west as of this typing and appears on satellite to be quite symmetrical and thunderstorms are firing to her SW and N with very cold tops. Whether that continues, remains to be seen, but it does appear it's becoming more organized early this morning. I think if the evolution of the longwave pattern pans out, Irene should continue on a more west and southerly track around the perphery of the ridge.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:06 AM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Right now, at best you're talking a good 6 days out assuming a Florida landfall would be in play at that time! No model at this time is hinting at that, though the longwave pattern is hinting at a more west and south track than currently projected. Right now, there's just no way to know. Possible? Yes; nothing is impossible this far out, but it would be foolish to even speculate.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:09 AM |
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Re: Do You Think
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Yes! In a hostile environment, it's reasonable to speculate, but thus far Irene has persevered through worse and she isn't looking too bad on satellite this morning...trudging west.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:43 AM |
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CIMMS and Shear Analysis
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The link you're referring to what you see are called streamlines; it's common in tropical latitudes to use them because you don't see what we refer to in the met biz as dynamic lows and ridges which exist by baroclinic processes; differences between cold and hot in the atmosphere. In the tropics winds are usually very light and pressures don't vary too much at the surface. In the upper air, think of 850mb as 5,000 feet, 700 mb as 10,000 feet, 500 mb as 18,000 feet, 300mb as 30,000 feet. When you look at the particular chart you're looking at; there is no shear to speak of at 850 to 700mbs and you will note the streamlines are much more in line with the low and mid latitude flow below 10,000 feet which isn't indicative of a "developed" tropical system. Being that this system is relatively shallow, it continues to be steered by the low level winds this chart indicates. Satellite photos will also aid you in determining that too. Water vapor doesn't help unless you're talking about a vertically coupled system; that is the storm is stacked from bottom to top, and if so, it's steering is done by the flow at 500mbs and up. To get a picture of shear over the storm you need the main link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds.html Then go to Wind Shear http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html When NHC talks about shear, this is the chart they're looking at, now when they mention shear below the outflow level, you have to look for something higher, like 400 mbs. These charts are vital in determining the environment these cyclones are in, and as you see as of this typing, the storm is in a fairly low shear environment now at that level, so if you go lower and look at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8midshr.html which is mid level shear, you will note the northerly component which NHC has been referring to and as you see, it's not low and it's not high, but more than likely just high enough to keep the storm somewhat decoupled at that particular column thus it remains a tropical depression at this time. To look at the satellite presentation currently, it appears it's winning the battle of the environment and as of this typing looks about as good as it's been in the past day or so, so don't be surprised if you might see an upgrade on the 5 am advisory, though NHC is pretty conservative when it comes to continuity; very rare will you see them radically leap in one advisory, unless a recon mission justifies it. I suspect you'll see a shift west and south but not too radical on thie next advisory.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:51 AM |
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Let's not get too ahead of ourselves!
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Anything beyond 120 hours is simply speculation....If there is one thing I've learned it's you can't sit here and watch this thing in little increments, with every forecast in the future dependent among moment to moment events with a storm. Think about it? 5 days out! That's 20 advisories, 10 model runs and several recon missions and a few NOAA runs sampling the atmosphere ahead of the system. As this storm draws closer is when the atmosphere is sampled over and over for the littlest change; not 5 or 6 days out. Moderators need to pay heed to this too. You cannot moment to moment forecast 5 or 6 or 7 days out; you can't do it. There isn't enough upper air data out there to get a good fix on this, thus with each model run things change; currently the UKMET is the outlier with it's turn to the north at days 3, 4 and 5. That too will change. It always does!
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:59 AM |
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Re: A few notes - Amen!
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As I just a moment ago posted...you can't moment to moment forecast, it's own thing to short term forecast or what they call NOW forecasting; it's another when it's current; that isn't forecasting; that's observing. NHC will not sample the atmosphere religiously until it gets within the 120 hour window, which I suspect will be sometime on late Wednesday beginning with the 00Z run on the 11th or maybe later. And once that data is inputted into the model runs, then a clearer picture will begin to reveal itself as to the future track. I also said this earlier, the evolution of the longwave pattern will play a role in this storms' future track and the strength of the ridge to it's NW and if anyone has ever read the extended forecast discussion; it's a headache when you look at the models and what they're telling you; this time it's a ridge or rex block over Alaska that will determine where this baby eventually goes; hard to believe that something so far away has those kinds of effects, but like squeezing a balloon, that's exactly what happens when you take into effect the downstream affects.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 09:56 AM |
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5 AM EDT Update
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2005 (edited~danielw)
THERE IS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE THAT IRENE STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LAST NIGHT'S
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES COULD NOT DEFINE A CENTER...AND THE LOW CLOUD LINES IN THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS ELONGATING AND LIKELY HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH.
IF THERE IS A CENTER...IT IS PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF 22N. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES HOWEVER...IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE
DISSIPATING OR RELOCATING THE CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/100836.shtml
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 10:30 AM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Irene's Outflow is looking more impressive.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 10:55 AM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Agreed. I believe we will see a flare up today with a closed circulation. It is approaching warmer waters- and I don't see sheer being a factor.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 11:07 AM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Sure looks like there is a broad, closed, wobbling center to me.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 11:33 AM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Actually, Irene's appearance is improving this morning, with convection building around the center and improved outflow/symmetry. Interesting that the models are taking hertoward the WNW, and further north than last nights run, at least from the tropical models. Much speculation on the building of a ridge along the east coast.....have a feeling the models will change again....they usually do! Cheers!!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:02 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Yeah, it is definately looking healthier this morning. I'm seeing stronger convection and what looks like banding starting to pop up.
Got a quicky question about SSD: On their storm floaters, where does it tell you which floater is on which storm without having to compare the graphic to some other site? Thanks!
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:40 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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The bottom line is,She is still moving west.The last few days they keep on saying she will turn more north,she has not,not even a little bit.Everyday I look at the NHC forcast map and it has it curving north,well,she is not listening to them.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:42 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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is that the high ridge coming in north of jacksonville?
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:47 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Little hard to tell on the visibles yet, but does that look like a center trying to develop at about 23/57 to anyone else?
If so, the convection is really building to the SW...
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:48 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Quote:
The bottom line is,She is still moving west.The last few days they keep on saying she will turn more north,she has not,not even a little bit.Everyday I look at the NHC forcast map and it has it curving north,well,she is not listening to them.
You're right, but I think its because the system has been so weak. This thing is like Randle "Tex" Cobb in a fight. It keeps getting the crap beat out of it but just won't go down. If the current organization keeps up, we'll probably start to see a more WNW motion later today.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Irene has survived alot,and now she will be moving into warm water with little or no shear.I am at 26N and 80.1W Irene is at 22.4N and 57.3W and heading due west.Thats what I care about.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:01 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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it is only at 22 latitude and it is moving w or even wsw. if ridge builds over it. it will not be able to recurve.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:05 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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If we were talking hurricane here I'd be worried but Irene is an extremely weak depression and at best if it does come toward South Florida, it would mainly be a rain event. True, if it continues West over warmer Bahamian waters than possibly it could strenghten. I don't see any reason at this time to even be concerned other than for the sake of tracking another storm.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:12 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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If TD irene is moving WSW than could she be feeling the affects of the ridge already?
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:18 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Well, the offical 5 day forcast track sure make the Carolina Coast look pretty vulnerable. The more Irene moves west , south of that area looks like there might be good possibility of something happening. I just don`t know. I`m in Charleston S.C. at the moment, so I`m going to follow this baby every mile it moves....I hope it takes the UKMET models track, but that looks highly unlikely. Shoud be an interesting start to next week if Irene gets its act together in the next few days....Weatherchef. web page ]
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:20 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Quote:She is not moving WNW,she is moving due west.That is my point,she is not moving north at all.Yesterday she was at 22.4N,today she is at 22.4N.
If TD irene is moving WSW than could she be feeling the affects of the ridge already?
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:24 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Visible Satellite loops this morning showing an organizing storm again, with good banding features developing, good outflow and convection building on the W and SW side of the center. Shear has relaxed and there is nothing but warm SST's ahead of her so I would not be surprised to see her continue to organize and strengthen to TS status later today or tonight as she heads generally W or WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:26 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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One has to admire Irene's tenacity. What I am wondering is about the strengthening of the storm.
If Irene does intensify what are the possibilities? It seems the consensus is she would be a weak system and a rainmaker at best ( of course, a rainmaker can cause extensive flooding especially with a stalling out of the system over land). Why will she remain a weak system? Is there simply not enough time to intensify or are there factors that will keep her from doing so? Also, does the possibility exist that she could still dissipate?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:33 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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the nhc says in 72 hours theres a 20% chance she could dissapate. I wouldn't count on it though. Due to the amount of shearing it has survived to this point.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:35 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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She is not moving WNW,she is moving due west.That is my point,she is not moving north at all.Yesterday she was at 22.4N,today she is at 22.4N.
Actually, Irene has been at between 22.4 to 22.6 since the 11oo advisory on 08-08-2005. Currently at 24.4 So she has been moving basically west since Monday.
Michael
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:36 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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I dont see the WSW movement, instead Im seeing a WNW movement, just a little bit south of the forecasted track
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:36 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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It seems that lately, we wake up every morning and Irene has reorganized and is strengthening. Then, as the day progresses, Irene ends up weaker than it was before. As well, we keep hearing that Irene is moving toward an area of warmer water and less shear, yet this same trend continues (strengthening in the morning, weaker by night). I do know this, Irene bears watching because there is plenty of time for this storm to get its act together and do a little damage. Given the persistance of the system and the warm waters close to the coast, any somewhat organized system can pull on shore as a hurricane.
One question, someone mentioned interaction with an upper level low. Where is this low and when is it forcast to interact with Irene?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:37 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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check out the mm5 model its producing some interesting track possibilities.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/IRENE.track.png
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:14 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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The google map plots on the site have the ability to click on a coordinate point and then display the forecast track from that time. Ie, click a point, a balloon pops up with the coordinate/windspeed information.
At the bottom of the popup balloon is the
button. You can use it to see the forecast error, by... say going back a few points, to see how off (or on) the track is compared to the actual storm path.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:32 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Mike
I dont think that plot forcast button is working
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:35 PM |
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ts???
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[image] http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg[/image] Latest image.Sure looks like a TS to me.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:39 PM |
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Re: ts???
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yea i agree bob, shes looking better organized by the 5 AM advisorys each day, maybe we'll have a TS by tonight if not, i'd give it till thursday night, then i think we will have our TS. Irene is a fairly small storm it looks like, im just hoping she stays small and weak for all those on the east coast of the US, the water is to warm for her to stay a TD im afraid, and shes breaking free from the shear and coming closer to that warm SE water. The next 4 days or so should be interesting.
-Ryan
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:40 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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Quote:
Mike
I dont think that plot forcast button is working
Pam, it probably will only work on the latest browsers and OSs. It uses ajax which older software may not support.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:42 PM |
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Still a TD
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As of the 11:00 am advisory, Irene is still a TD, although she is expected to reach TS status sometime over the next 24 hours.
full basin shot
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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Phil:
Irene was expected to reach TS status over 2 days ago, we see how well that has been working.
Dave
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:49 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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I wish she would hurry up and do it. I think the longer she fools around as a TD or less, the more she moves west instead of a turn. I want this storm out to sea, not making a run to the west after she strengthens
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:52 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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Can you send me a link that shows the high pressure ridge? The ridge that was suppose to have picked her up? If I am asking the right question....................
Let me send this again in case no one saw it the first time. Let's work on this present issue and not start fights this morning. If you want to comment than you need to register and you know who you are.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 02:58 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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Agree with you, as long as Irene stays a TD or weak TS she keep on moving west, If Irene is still a TD or a 40mph TS in 48 hours , My feeling is she track west to South Florida as a cat 1 or could reach cat 2 before land fall. if not then she curve up northward to maybe SC.
Dave
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:03 PM |
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Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think
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Irene will explode into a cat 3 or stronger...however, the exact path is still too far out to know...
If I were on the east coast...anywhere from Miami to Cape Hatteras...I'd be watching Irene real closely....
take a look at Joe Bastardi's take on it....the high pressure system will keep it south and it WILL impact the U.S....and all the things are there for strengthening...
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:07 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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Quote:That sounds about right to me also.I just hope she will not be worse than a cat 2.IfI were a betting man I would also say south Florida or South Carolina.It is getting more interesting by the hour.
Agree with you, as long as Irene stays a TD or weak TS she keep on moving west, If Irene is still a TD or a 40mph TS in 48 hours , My feeling is she track west to South Florida as a cat 1 or could reach cat 2 before land fall. if not then she curve up northward to maybe SC.
Dave
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: Last 2 QuickScat passes
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DanielW:
I guess I was imprecise (unless you were kidding and I didn't get it) when I wrote "reading" in my post re: QuikScat passes. I suppose I should've written that if I were "interpreting" the actual QuikScat passes correctly, then there was no closed circulation. It does appear that that was the case, or that at least the QuickScat passes were ambiguous - as shown in the 5 am NHC advisory and your subsequent post of that advisory.
Amazing Irene is this far along (in terms of westward movement) and there is still some ambiguity as to whether there is an LLC at all. As I think Clark posted before, despite that ambiguity it makes sense that recon has not gone in, given the already-busy season, what is almost certain to come in terms of frequent recon flights into other storms down the road, and the lack of immediate threat from Irene.
But I am so curious about what a plane would find in there; although I do not want the government spending its (our) money on unnecessary flights, it's hard not to root for recon to be sent in there to determine (1) if there's a (low level) center (2) where the center is and (3) how strong Irene is.
-Brad
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:12 PM |
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Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think
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Quote:
Irene will explode into a cat 3 or stronger...however, the exact path is still too far out to know...
If I were on the east coast...anywhere from Miami to Cape Hatteras...I'd be watching Irene real closely....
take a look at Joe Bastardi's take on it....the high pressure system will keep it south and it WILL impact the U.S....and all the things are there for strengthening...
Rick you can't say she will explode into a cat. 3 or stonger its a little to early for guessing..i mean maybe she will as of now shes a TD so we have time to think.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:17 PM |
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Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think
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yes I can...and I did...
the storm grows in size with every pulse...and the shear is about over with...and Irene is entering warmer waters, and she will be steered west by the building high pressure ridge...and she has already developed outflow characteristic of a cyclone...and now, when the upper spins and llc all get together..she will explode...maybe today...maybe tomorrow...maybe day after..not sure...
but she will
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:27 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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Can you send me a link that shows the high pressure ridge? The ridge that was suppose to have picked her up? If I am asking the right question....................
Let me say this again in case no one saw it the first time. Let's work on this present issue and not start fights this morning. If you want to comment than you need to register and you know who you are.
| bamffl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:40 PM |
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Re: 5 AM EDT Update
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MikeC, *very* cool plot forecast! It's interesting to be able to compare the tracks.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:58 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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Thy are hoping that Irene will pull up in a small break in the high close to the coast, If Irene stays as a TD she just may pass it by..
120 hour graph.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:13 PM |
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Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think
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Quote:
yes I can...and I did...
the storm grows in size with every pulse...and the shear is about over with...and Irene is entering warmer waters, and she will be steered west by the building high pressure ridge...and she has already developed outflow characteristic of a cyclone...and now, when the upper spins and LLC all get together..she will explode...maybe today...maybe tomorrow...maybe day after..not sure...
but she will
Rick, to say that Irene will 'for sure' blow up is definetly jumping the gun. For one, it's still a depression, not even a TS yet. Maybe in the next advisory she'll be a storm but theres still a ways to go. Two, there's quite a bit of dry air around her and in front of the forcasted track. Dry air is not a contributing factor to rapid intesification, infact a I believe dry air helped keep Francis from 'blowing up' last year. Also, there is a upper low to the west of Irene. I don't believe its causing shear now, but the area ahead of Irene is sure to have a lit bit. This area could weaken, but it is there now and could cause problems in the future.
And one of your points, the warmer waters, isn't very valid. Irene is already in waters around the mid 80's. From any graph I've seen the water temps infront of it are only in the mid-80's aswell.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:13 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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Well, fortunately for us in Florida, the models are trending toward the right again. This is very bad news for the Carolinas however. That said, they are just models and can (and have been) inaccurate. Some are still maintaining that stronger ridging will be present near the SE coast by late weekend as the Alaskan Block occurs as ridging retrogrades west up there. If that were to play out, the Atlantic ridge could move in kind. So nobody on the east coast can claim No Impact from Irene. After last year, I am taking no chances. My supplies are ready......but we can always use more WATER!!
Cheers!!
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:21 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Last night I had noted a pretty large outflow boundry, and I was wondering if it would kill the LLC. In fact, it may have for a brief time and then simply rebuilt it. As it is now, there's enough convection to mask the LLC (but you can still see evidence of the the low level windflow wrapping about and around 22N 57W or so) The storm looks better, but I still have some serious doubts about any strengthening. In fact, i suspect the entire northern part of convection is dying down and will slip away (once again) once the afternoon wears on. The southern convection looks like it's going to stick around this time, but you can still see the storms being pushed to the north and displacing because of shear(?)
If what I am seeing is correct, that's what is causing the seeming NW movement and that the LLC is heading in a more WNW to W direction.
I'm not even going to try to project intensity at this point. and remember, IANAM
-Mark
(of course, now watch the sucker just explode in intensity now that I've doubted that it's going to get any stronger
)
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:24 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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I dont know why they havent put recon out there yet its past 55w and it has more of a chance to come to land. Another thing i dont get why they would send recon out to harvey when it was going away from land and they haven sent one into Irene.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:36 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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Quote:
Well, fortunately for us in Florida, the models are trending toward the right again. This is very bad news for the Carolinas however. That said, they are just models and can (and have been) inaccurate. Some are still maintaining that stronger ridging will be present near the SE coast by late weekend as the Alaskan Block occurs as ridging retrogrades west up there. If that were to play out, the Atlantic ridge could move in kind. So nobody on the east coast can claim No Impact from Irene. After last year, I am taking no chances. My supplies are ready......but we can always use more WATER!!
I think it's going to be a close call for the east coast of FL. It all depends on the orientation and strength of the Bermuda High 5-6 days out. Current model trends say Irene near 30N-75W in 5 days. After looking at the new 12Z UKMET and the 06Z GFS, both models want to rebuild and expand westward the Atlantic Ridge with the GFS doing it after 120 hrs and the UKMET after 96 hours. The UKMET is stronger with the ridge but both models build it west with the axis near JAX and 1024mb ridging to the coast. If, and who can tell this far out, the storm stays below 29-30N after 5 days, it is likely to be steered west or even W-SW after that point. If it gets north of 30N, then the storm will likely get trapped in the ridge and meander until something picks it up. Of course, this is a prediction based on todays model runs - why the models change so much is because of what happens upstream in the Gulf of Alaska and whether a deep trough sets up out west (thus pumping up the eastern ridge) or more zonal conditions prevail. Anyone from Miami to Cape Hatteras could be impacted at this point. Here is the 06Z track of Irene from the FSUmm5 model at 120 hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/archive/2005081006/IRENE.track.png
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:37 PM |
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Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:42 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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I think it is with certainty we can say Irene is the little storm that COULD. She could go out to sea.
She could hit the East Coast. She could strengthen or dissipate. I gues we will just all have to wait and see what she decides to do but isn't it interesting following the progress of these storms and trying to figure out what they will do next?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:43 PM |
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Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:48 PM |
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ralphfl *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:53 PM |
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Re: ralphfl
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When do they plan to send Recon to Irene and why havent they yet I know I said this early but when harvey was movin away from land they sent one to it. But and Irene get close and could have a impact they havent yet.
Also am i not the only one who doesn't like ralphfl?
Also how do u become a moderator anyways.
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:55 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Quote:
I think it is with certainty we can say Irene is the little storm that COULD. She could go out to sea.
She could hit the East Coast. She could strengthen or dissipate. I gues we will just all have to wait and see what she decides to do but isn't it interesting following the progress of these storms and trying to figure out what they will do next?
I must totally agree... it has been very intresting watching it look like it was going to die out. Then to see the next day she was going again. It has also been intresting looking at all of the models and learning which ones work with which types of storms. I am thinking now it may be feeling the trof to the north west, but I think it will miss it and keep moving west. The next 72 hours will be even more intresting to watch and see how this storm moves and builds (or not).
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:55 PM |
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Re: ralphfl
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The only problem with that is this forum is not for novices like you to guess where the storm will go or how powerful it will be. That's what the forcast lounge is for.
Please do not respond to posts of this nature.
| jbmusic |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:58 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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It is with must regret that I must say goodbye to this board, I don't post much, but I use to come to this board several times a day to get information and to read other peoples opinions as to what is happening with the storms, but now for me to get the information, I must weed thru all the bickering and fighting. It's not worth it too me. We are all grown ups on this board, but I read the same petty bickering I listen to my kids do all day, I don't need to come on here and read it from grown ups, so I will be going elsewhere to get my information. I just hope you all grow up and learn how to get along. Life is too short and we could learn alot from each other if we stop reading between the lines, and stop picking petty things to argue about
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:58 PM |
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Re: ralphfl
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Why waste the $$$ on recon out there now when we know its very weak and still projected to go out to sea. They will send 1 in but probably not till tomorrow. We have plenty of time. If this was a threat to the Islands or Puerto Rico then they would of sent one in yesterday.
Anyways I dont know why they are saying it was moving this morning at 10mph. It actually stalled or drifted around for the past 6-8hours as it is so close to its midlevel center, it actually might be held up on its westard movement due to it.
Anyways still the models show this heading up towards bermuda but of course lets keep a eye on it incase we do see the models head towards 30N and 75W.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:58 PM |
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Re: Still a TD
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But Ralphfl, I have already noted that the models are shifting north, but don't want to lull anyone to the opposite conclusion, that there is no need to be watchful. There are plenty of mets out there that see strong ridging in the east, and the new run of the 12Z GFS bears this out, and actually dissipates Irene east of FL. We are watching and looking at the models because we are concerned, not panicking. Of course the models could be wrong, so I watch so I can better prepare if a threat comes. Rick on a boat posts here quite a bit, and helps to bring some comic relief to the board, and has good observations. He wouldn't be wishcasting either.....he's off the coast of Alabama somewhere. I agree with you that this TD is many miles away and there is no need to worry about it at this time. We are watching it though. Cheers!!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:01 PM |
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Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:02 PM |
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Recons
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With the storm still almost a week away from any possible landfalls, there is no point in spending money. Remember, there is only a limited amount of money available for the recon flights. in a slow year where this is the first or second storm, it's quite possible they would do recon flights just to get some training work in. But in this case, with who knows how many storms possibly left to deal with, you don't want to have to go to congress for emergency funding, particularly if it means that you have a serious storm heading to the coast, and flights are delayed.
So, I'm paitent. if it's a threat by saturday, I suspect you'll see recon heading out that afternoon.
-Mark
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:07 PM |
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this site
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is the best site on the internet for hurricanes...excellent moderators...excellent insight from the experts....and a lot of fun...
remember...its a hobby....
when the NHC or some of the experts get concerned...then I do...
and Joe Bastardi is an expert...and he's concerned...so when I type that...why do some take offense...??? beats me...
so I will be careful NOT to get argumentative....
| superfly |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:08 PM |
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Re: ralphfl
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scottsvb :
Not sure what models you're looking at, but almost all the ones I'm seeing have it headed towards the Carolinas.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:34 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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Lots going on folks, considering I have a fulltime job in the day I really can't babysit the forums then for the very few people causing issues. Please read the rules, we like commentary and forecasts, but we've got a new place for them.
Irene is a complex situation with a varity of possible end results, and can bring up the anxiety level in some. I'm not very bullish on it right now, but some are.
If you think the Internet is Serious Business or like to cause "Forum Drama" then please leave. I just want the site to have decent enough information in a somewhat organized format, and that's what I want to concentrate on. The storm, and information about it. I appreciate all the commentary, but attacks will be dealt with by the mods or myself as needed. A few people are going to get banned soon.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:34 PM |
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LAST WARNING
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I've been pretty tolerant up to this point, but it has now gotten to the point where fully half of the posters on this board are engaging in inappropriate forum behavior. Mike and Ed have posted several times on this, and the rules of this board are clearly stated.
Any future posts of an antagonizing nature, or of an attacking nature, towards any other posters or even in general, will be deleted and the poster will be either placed on probation (meaning you will be unable to post in ANY forum for a specified amount of time) or PERMANENTLY BANNED for repeated infractions...
This is a learning and teaching board, for expert, met and newbie alike...if you do not abide by the rules, you will not be permitted to post here.
| disneyfanfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:36 PM |
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Irene's unpredictability
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I have only been following the tropics closely for a short while and I'm just a layperson, so I have a question for the moderators, mets, and anyone else with experience out there.
What's been the most confusing or unpredictable storm you can remember? How does Irene rate in this category? I have been astounded at how this thing has survived despite the odds and pretty much defied every forcecast up until now for both intensity and direction. It just seems to me one of the trickiest storms but it could be my ignorance talking.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:43 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Elana was probably the most confusing, Floyd (For east central florida) was probably the most nail biting in recent memory, as well as Charlie.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:43 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Looking past Irene, which I, in my humble, not so meteorological opinion... have no idea what it'll do. (i'll echo the Ft Pierce to Hatteras sentiment, that's the best bet now) But I'd like to bring up the ever reliable 312 hour GFS. The 12z run shows another low approaching florida in about 13 days. While I wouldn't bet the farm on it, perhaps this is an indication of what the pattern COULD (not will, but could) be for this years CV storms. I had heard some folks saying that they thought we could end up seeing a lot of early recurvatures, but perhaps not. Again, this is all highly speculative... it's the THIRTEEN DAY model... they can't seem to get irene right for 13 minutes, so take that with a grain of salt, but I thought this was perhaps an interesting indication of the rest of the season. Obviously the future track of Irene will play a big role in what the following storms do, so this track could... no make that WILL all change. But it's definitely something to look at.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp1_312.shtml
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:47 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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This is when it stinks to be a rookie. I have no idea what all those maps mean...LOL!
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 05:59 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Irene is still a depression, it's holding its own, but it may be another day just as a depression. It's persitant westward movment keeps it interetsing.
It may stay weak for another few days, which is fine by me, but would support a further westward movement.
| JYarsh |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 06:11 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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It looks like Irene is trying to move north, but as the bands move north they fall apart. The southern 1/3 of the storm keeps rebuilding and intensifying. It looks a lot more organized and symetrical than a few hours ago. I wouldn't be surprised if it got upgraded to a tropical storm at the 5pm advisory.
Satellite loop
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 06:13 PM |
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
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If Irene keep moving west then it might be a bigger factor for florida then what the models are preddicting.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 06:16 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Irene is still soo weak that its center is being influenced by its midlevel low on its NW side. The center has slowed to a crawl while the midlevel low is moving by on its N or now NW side near 23N and 58W. Quicksat pass shows Irene has multiple centers and probably the main circulation near 22.6N and 57.5W. just NE of the 11am NHC position.
The center might get better defined tonight into tomorrow as the system gets better established with a ridge to its NW. I expect a w or wnw movement thru the period. Any drop in pressure or strengthning over the next day or so would push this NW or even NNW towards Bermuda area but if she stays weak by 65W then a more W movement to near 25-27N and 75W by Saturday. It should strengthn into a hurricane by the weekend. By then its too early to tell how strong the ridge will be to let us know if she will continue then wnw towards Florida or move NW and N towards the Carolinas.
For now again like the last many days....its a watch and see.......... SVB
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 06:18 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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emackl -- please, by all means, feel free to ask if there's something you don't understand. We'll be more than happy to help you out.
As for Irene...nice little transformation today. The older bits of Irene appear to be the sharp trough with weak rotation along 22-28N/62W, while the center has reformed with the mid-level organization early on today. The QuikSCAT passes last night gave some idea that some reorganization was occuring, while the visible satellite imagery today gives us a better idea of what has occurred. It's similar, it seems, to what it did several days ago with new LLCs forming...except this time, it wasn't the northern & western one that won out.
The storm is still a bit disorganized -- as of this time, my best guess on the center's location is 23N/58W, placing it a bit on the NW side of the convection -- but getting better organized with time. If current trend continue, the system should be a tropical storm later tonight. It's pretty much where we thought it'd be once it initially formed, but it's gotten there for all of the wrong reasons (compared to predictions) and is nowhere near the caliber of storm that was predicted.
That said, the threat to somewhere along the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast is rising...the strength of the storm and the strength/extent of the ridge will give the keys as to where. I don't feel safe excluding anyone along the US coastline at this point, including South Florida. There will be a chance for Irene to turn more towards the north at days 4 and 5; how much of a turn, as noted, depends upon how strong it is and what the upper-level pattern looks like at that point. For now though, everyone needs to be watching this one for a potential US impact in 5-6 days. Intensity...NHC intensity looks good initially, maybe a little stronger in the long run assuming the favorable upper-level winds come into play and as the storm hits the Gulf Stream. The absolute high end of intensity is cat 2/3 status, I feel -- conditions are ripe, but not all that ripe -- with weak hurricane status (cat 1, 75-85mph) more likely at landfall. We'll be watching this for any changes, however.
Elsewhere...potential is there for another central Atlantic development in about 3 days, but it's likely to start out weak. Colorado State's Experimental TC Genesis product (http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gparm/genesis.asp) has spiked upward lately, with conditions becoming increasingly favorable, so it's only a matter of time. One to watch for the longer-term...give it, say, a 30% shot at development right now. We've changed around our MM5 (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/) a bit in an attempt to reduce the number of terrain-induced vortices; we'll have to see how it impacts the overall forecasts, but results are promising so far.
More tomorrow...
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 06:34 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Clark,
Why the possible 2/3, but then a 1 at landfall...will it peak out...cooler water before landfall?
Hi Ed -- it's like what NewWatcher mentioned below. I think that the storm's peak intensity could get as high as a cat2/3 on a high end, but that the peak intensity is more likely to be somewhere in the minimal hurricane strength range. It is a possibility that the storm weakens ever-so-slightly before landfall -- if it does make landfall -- but that's not going to be a dramatic effect if so. --Clark
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 06:35 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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he said he thinks the highest is 2-3 but in reality right now he sees low end 1 at landfall............
or that is the way i read it anyway
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 06:48 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Interesting discussion from HPC this afternoon on the future of Irene's track. Hmmm...
PSNS FOR IRENE WERE BASED ON COORD WITH TPC.
HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW KEEPING MORE RIDGING TO THE N OF
IRENE AND STEERING IT ON A MORE SLY TRACK...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASINGLY DIMINISHING ON THE SYS TURNING NWD TO THE DEGREE THAT
THE COORD TRACK IMPLIES.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 06:55 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Going for stupid question of the week here. What is the xtrap on the models? Is it actually a model run? Can't be I wouldn't think. Too off from all the others. Can someone explain?
| bamffl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 06:58 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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I take the xtrap to be a direct extrapolation of what the track would look like if the storm continued on a straight path...
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:01 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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It's looking like there is greater risk that the east coast of the USA will get impacted by Irene. Still, we need to watch where Irene is in 72 hours before alarms go off.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:10 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Can you please provide the link to the HPC discussion you are refering to?
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:12 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Crp:
Here's the address for the latest HPC discussion:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:21 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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These models are enough to drive one to drink...or maybe drink more. Since the most recent ones tend to be farther north, wouldn't the ridging have been taken into account...or is the ridging info post model release?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:26 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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lol i agree, i know i drink more during hurricane season heh heh
seriously tho, in respect to the models, i think timing is everything. Check out
the latest 12z nogaps, it has this thing running all the way up the east coast by 144
hours. I think this is way to fast, and that the ridge will prevent this. but as we all
say.... we will see
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:29 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Are other models besides the tropical models (BAMM/D, LBAR, A98E) trending north? If not, then the northern trend in those models may be more a function of them not "seeing" the ridge as well as other (and generally more reliable) models are.
Don't rely only on the tropical models. Or only on any one model, for that matter. Or only on one run of/change in the models. Etc., etc.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:34 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Actually, the latest BAM M has trended left again towards GA/SC border if extrpolated from the last point it depicts.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:38 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Quote:
Actually, the latest BAM M has trended left again towards GA/SC border if extrpolated from the last point it depicts.
I was just looking at that same trend. It looks like the tail wagging has begun on this one.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 07:58 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Quote:
lol i agree, i know i drink more during hurricane season heh heh
seriously tho, in respect to the models, i think timing is everything. Check out
the latest 12z nogaps, it has this thing running all the way up the east coast by 144
hours. I think this is way to fast, and that the ridge will prevent this. but as we all
say.... we will see
yea i just looked at nogaps seeing it awfly close to me up here in LI, lets hope allt he models are wrong, lets hope Irene dies or just affects marine interests.
NOGAPS has been pretty reliable all season hasnt it, so i dont think im liking its new 144hr model run.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:00 PM |
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What will they say at 5pm
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Imagine news casts from Miami north to Long Island will be singing a different tune on the system known as tropical depression Irene.
Really think she is a tropical storm by the looks of her on sats.. but I'm not the one making the call. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-rgb-loop.html
Enjoying reading the discussion. Interesting to see what people think.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: What will they say at 5pm *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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has anyone read the 11am diss. it said track will likely shift more west and south at 5pm. as i read hps is saying now. once under that expanding ridge, it will not be able to go north much in any direction.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:05 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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The models are struggling to predict a solution out 4-5 days. What I look for are the big global trends (i.e. mainly the position and strength of the Atlantic Ridge or if there are any mid-latitude troughs predicted to drop down). I posted earlier about the building ridge after 96-120 hours (4-5 days). If this verifies, and its a big if still 5 days out, then the storm is either going to head west if its low enough in latitude or it'll get trapped within the ridge - in which case it'll stall and meander until some big change happens like the ridge moving or weakening. i try not to focus on the individual model runs but look for trends over several days. The global models like GFS still have problems 4-5 days out - in this case, the NCEP ENS means (lots of runs averaged together) indicate building ridging after 4-5 days - how this translates to track is all a question of timing. The newest NOGAPS builds the ridge like the GFS & UKMET, but it races Irene fast and beats the building ridge.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:05 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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Acutally when you look at the entire Tropical Convergence Zone from the coast of Africa into the Gulf of Mexico, We're looking pretty good right now.
Only Tropical Depression Irene is really worth taking note of at this time and even that is not a huge threat to anyone.
If Irene comes across Florida as a minimal tropical storm, we could use the rain and a break from the hot humid summer.
Have to see the next few days what happens and if Irene turns more NW as I expect it to. TIme will tell.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:11 PM |
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Model's
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in the MM5FSU model run in 120 hours off the coast of Arfica it looks like there is a possible wave/invest/TD...UKMET also shows the disturbance, but not as organized as FSU shows it. GFS also shows the disturbance at about 84 hours, then more organized at 144 hours.
i hope the active part or the season doesnt begin with Irene.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:18 PM |
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Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:24 PM |
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Re: Model's
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Check out the lastest 12Z run of FSUmm5 thru 84 hrs - while I just posted not to get too excited over individual model tracks, this one has shifted south and caught my eye.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/IRENE.track.png
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:30 PM |
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Re: Model's
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You should also note that it's only showing a TD at 84 hours.
web FSUMM5 1200Z run wind
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:33 PM |
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Re: Model's
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as i posted, the 11 am discusion said track would likely shift more west and south. on the 5 pm advisory.
| Todd |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:37 PM |
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Re: Model's
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NRL has latest track out now #25
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:41 PM |
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Re: Model's
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Do you think you give give out a link for that todd? thanks!
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:42 PM |
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Re: Model's
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Ron:
The 12z run is 8am EST, I believe. So that model was incorporated into the NHC's 11 am forecast; it does not represent a model shift SINCE that forecast (or since 8 am).
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:46 PM |
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Re: What will they say at 5pm
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As I said, time and data can change my mind....I now think Irene, the fighter, will continue with us and possibly become a threat somewhere....se coast to points north.
Satellite presentation is improving....
MM
| Todd |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: Model's
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It's the NRL Monterey .. FYI..the good links are near the bottom of the main page.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:48 PM |
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Re: Model's
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5:00 discussion out:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200509.disc.html
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:49 PM |
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Re: Model's
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send me that link please
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:51 PM |
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Irene Still A TD @ 5:00
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she's still a TD...1745 T #'s still 2.0/2.0...don't look for her to become a TS again until tomorrow...
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 09:13 PM |
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00
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In the NHC 5PM discussion it stated that:
"SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA AND THE MOST RECENT ODT VALUES...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE IS VERY NEAR REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...UNTIL SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION PERSISTS... THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT .
Is this S.O.P.?
| Bloodstar |
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| Wed Aug 10 2005 09:22 PM |
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00
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I heart Forecaster Stewart discussions.
His explanations of why and how always help give me insight and a peek into some of the tendencies that storms have. I probably would have bumped it back to a tropical storm status, but I see the logic in why it would be prudent to wait another 6 hours. After all, the storm has shown signs of life and sputtered down before. So some consistancy before giving it back it's storm status does make sense. I still really don't know what to expect from Irene, and I'm leery of even trying to project out where it'll end up. So, I'm going to take a pass on this one and just watch and learn
-Mark
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 09:22 PM |
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00
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Irene looks a pretty good- shud be up to TS IMO later tonite
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 09:24 PM |
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00
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Confused what you mean, Big Kahuna. With varying satellite estimates (and even without them), it's always a judgment call. Satellite estimates are one tool, but others include QuikScat (still inconclusive here); the amount of sustained convection, particularly near the center of circulation; and how well-defined the llc is.
Again, I still can't see one dominant, well-defined center in the satellite imagery - can't tell if there are multiple centers, if the center keeps re-forming, if there is no low-level center (yes, it's possible, although not likely, this is technically just an incredibly good-looking wave) - so I agree with the NHC's call. Others will disagree, and I think several different calls could be supported in this case.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 10:05 PM |
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Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00
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Yes it is. The NHC's forecasts are not moment to moment (while a lot of what goes on here is). Their forecasts are based on trends and long term changes. So it is not unusual to postpone something 4, 8,, 24 hours or more to make sure that whatever it is they are looking at is not just a short term feature. Irene has been very interesting to watch, lots of factors involved, and the surrounding environment is in a constant state of change, and will be for a while.
Bill
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 10:21 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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I am curious why the latest HPC Discussion makes a point to mention the building ridge that should steer Irene on a more sly track in the long term and wherever you read on forums, and especially the computer models, this is not reflected.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 10:30 PM |
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Re: Irene's unpredictability
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crpeavley -- a building ridge should keep Irene moving more towards the west than towards the north through time. I think everyone is picking up on that, from the NHC on down, but perhaps not quite to the degree that HPC might be. It is the HPC's job to put out long-range forecasts, including when a tropical cyclone may impact things, so their thinking is usually the first you'll see from an 'official' source that talks about landfall regions. They often disagree with the NHC, and vice versa, as always happens with different forecasters; this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Really, the time frame they are talking about right now is beyond the NHC forecast period and more towards the long range (5-7 days), where most forecasters try to shy away from when it comes to tropical cyclone forecasts. It's just a wait-and-see thing right now, but not at all inconsistent with what the general consensus seems to be with this storm.
Saw the mm5 posting before about the track, followed by the wind plot -- I'm not sure how much stock I'd put in the intensity forecasts right now. With the change to the convective parameterization in the model, we tried to get rid of the spurious vortex development near Central America, something that appears to be working. Unfortunately, in this change, we weaken the ability for the model to recognize and grow shallow cumulus clouds/convection; these are important in transferring energy to the large scales and in the development of a storm beyond a minimal TS. There is still such a scheme in there, it is just not as sophisticated. So, while it remains to be seen as to whether or not this is a true forecast of intensity or a conservative forecast, I would tend to think it is at least slightly the former and thus, as always, should be treated with caution.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 10:30 PM |
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Re: Model's
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Quote:
Ron:
The 12z run is 8am EST, I believe. So that model was incorporated into the NHC's 11 am forecast; it does not represent a model shift SINCE that forecast (or since 8 am).
Brad:
My point was it represented a southward shift from the previous 06Z FSUmm5 run. Since the mm5 is experimental (correct me if I mistate Clark), it is not part of the NHC's suite of models used in their forecasting. The NHC also uses the FSU super-ensemble, which is not available to the public.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 10:41 PM |
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Re: Model's
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Ron -- yes, the MM5 is an experimental model. Some forecasters from NHC & TAFB have looked at the output from time to time, but it is not incorporated in the NHC track guidance suite and they do not use it in making operational forecasts. Part of that is the experimental nature, while another part of it is when it comes out -- for instance, the 12z run isn't finished until about 6pm ET/22z, largely because of computing power and needing the 12z GFS analysis to start the model off of (which itself isn't available until 16z or so). We've got some big plans for it, but those are in the long term (next 5 years) moreso than anything and will require more computer power than we have right now.