(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 04:40 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Former TD #10 still looking disorganized at noon today. LLC seems to be struggling for identidy or hidden beneath convection firing on the NW side. The Globals don't really do much of anything with this feature, and the GFDL has been hot and cold, the 6z version dimishing it. The environment is terrible right now with the persistent SW'erly shear; wonder if it will get favorable at all. Right now its No Way Jose from former TD#10. But things can change quickly. Enjoy the lull; but keep a stock of your hurricane supplies.

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 16 2005 05:00 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

What happend to JB on the accuweather site? They dismantle him for getting all the storms wrong this year almost? IM j/k I like his videos but its not up there. I guess hes on vacation?

It seems like they may have taken them off. Maybe too many hits and they decided to stop giving them away. -HF

PFSThunder

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 16 2005 05:44 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Joe is on the Point/Counterpoint Video today. He still sees former #10 breaking through the ridge.

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 16 2005 05:49 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Anyways, My idea of the sw carribean starting up tomorrow look on track still. Im going out on a limb here and only 1 model agrees with me and that is the Nogaps.
There is soo much shear going on with the upper low over the central and western carribean right now for the next 48 hours that any low will be weak. I dont think it will be noticed more until 72hours when it gets off the Honduras coast near Belieze and heads NW or NNW along the eastern Yucitan of Mx. I think conditions will improve for this to become a depression and possibly a storm. It could move then more wnw towards the western gulf or get trapped if it stays more e in the central gulf by next Sunday into Monday. A trough will dig into the great lakes and Ne U.S. late this week into the weekend. How far down to the S.E U.S will determine how far N it gets. First it still has to form in a couple days if at all.
With the former TD it does have a chance to get its status back but not till at least tomorrow evening and even then I think they will wait for recon to check it out. Again with trough coming down this weekend it should do the same as Irene unless the trough moves out quicker then expected early next week.

scottsvb

richisurfs

(Weather Guru)

Tue Aug 16 2005 06:28 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

"Joe is on the Point/Counterpoint Video today. He still sees former #10 breaking through the ridge."

Of course he does...why am I not suprised? Then again, maybe I should be glad he thinks that because that means it probably won't happen. Seriously, I personally love these storms for the waves but hate them for what they can do to peoples lives and property so I'm hoping it doesn't break through the ridge and just dies a quiet death out there.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 06:50 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Irene latest scatt is 5.0/5.0 looks to be close to 100MHP

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 16 2005 06:55 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Translation...please.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 16 2005 07:07 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from one of the three agencies the NHC uses -- and the only one publicly available -- now has an estimate of 5.0 on the storm, which generally translates to an intensity of about 105mph. The full website can be found here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html. I'd go into a full discussion about the Dvorak technique, but it'd take quite a long time; nevertheless, it is an attempt to categorize storm intensity by the overall cloud pattern & structure (as determined by satellite) for a given tropical cyclone. It does a pretty good job and is often all we have for intense storms well out at sea, but does have some error in it from time to time and is generally a subjective categorization process requiring a lot of practice, training, and experience on the observer's part. Efforts are underway to create an objective Dvorak system, primarily at UWisconsin, but that is just experimental at this time.

As for TD 10...it is looking a little disorganized at this time with perhaps two separate low-level centers due to this morning's convective burst to the west of the old center. Nevertheless, conditions are improving with the system and we may well see something sometime tomorrow once again out of this one. Model guidance that picks it up is now trending more towards recurvature and an impact near Bermuda down the line, but that is 5 days out and for a weak system, I'm not sure how much I trust the models. We'll watch it.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 07:54 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Actually. I saw the point\counterpoint video yesterday and today. JB doesn't have old TD10 "break thru the ridge", rather he sees it riding the southern boundary of a strong Atlantic ridge all the way to the east coast of Florida. I don't put any stock in predictions that far out, but he's making a point about the global pattern he sees the next 5-6 days.

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Aug 16 2005 08:19 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Ed, a few sites about Dvorak technique:

What it is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
What the levels mean: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
A generalized "satellite" to Dvorak number comparison: http://www.tropicalupdate.com/atlantic_tropic_watch_guide_to_d.htm

(Thanks to whoever it was that posted that last one here here for me a month back!)

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Aug 16 2005 08:23 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Interesting at least one of the main models shows TD10 (remnant) heading west-northwest and then west-southwest toward florida over the next 5 days, though never has it reach the state before it ends the loop. Unfortunately for JB there is a LOT of stuff it has to survive through before we can even begin to say that track may be right.

Personally I think TD10 will return to TD strength, and possibly TS strength, but whether it heads toward land or goes fish spinning, no clue. It is too hard to predict such a weak system, especialyl since system's intensity is a heavy modifier in track and there isn't good guidance on strength forcasting for open waves.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 16 2005 08:31 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005
... IRENE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...THREAT TO SHIPPING ...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...

La Nimo

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 16 2005 08:42 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Old Sailor posted it at being 100MPH at 2:50PM today hmmmm..

Hey we go again TD10 or what use to be 10 is in a downward phase again seems like a rerun of yesterday and day before. This one is going to be very hard to predict.

together they constitute a post. -HF

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 16 2005 09:16 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

I been seeing that the former TD 10 is increasing some convection the past few hours. Dont think were finish with this one at least for know. Must keep a close eye on it for the next few days.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 09:46 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

i think she wont be upgraded, if she is at all, till late wednesday or early thursday and be a threat to the Bahahmas and Florida from what some of the models show..hopefully not because that would be like starting a trend..the J storms hit florida so im hoping thats false..we'll enjoy the lull while it lasts, which from the waves on africa doesnt look like long.

if it gets named it's jose. odd calling it she for that reason.. i just use 'it' for storms because calling everything by feminine pronouns makes you sound like a cliche pirate. arr, she be a good ship, matey. -HF

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 11:34 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Doesn't look like tropical depression 10 wants to give up. He's a fighter. If he reforms it should be around Thursday?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 16 2005 11:42 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

GOES Floater 1 is on T.D.10 so we are getting, what, half hour loop update? A nice burst of convection there to the northwest of the (well, ONE of the) spins in T.D. 10.

What say the track models if he/she/it/they survive?

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:14 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

I'm wondering if that spin to the northeast might be the start of some mid level circulation that got sheared off. This burst of convection 12 hours ahead of the diurnal max is kind of interesting. I think this is only temporary there is still plenty of shear around. The RGB picks up both spins,but the LLC (moving west) in the SW quad seems dominant.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:18 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

16/2345 UTC 16.4N 53.9W T1.5/1.5 10
16/1745 UTC 16.2N 53.3W T1.0/1.0 10
16/1145 UTC 15.9N 51.9W T1.0/1.0 10
16/0615 UTC 15.5N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 10
15/2345 UTC 15.1N 50.3W TOO WEAK 10
Looks like RTD Ten are getting better organized I would actually expect regeneration tonight or tomorrow morning maybe later than that but I think it looks good enough to be classified by tomorrow morning. Especially since the Shear is weakening.

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:18 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

I wonder if this is X-TD10 or another Inves they are sending the plane into on Thursday?

NOUS42 KNHC 161400 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 16 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-080 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1 NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/1800Z NEAR 20N AND 60W. -- ADDED

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Recon

(User)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:26 AM

odds

as an initial note, irene's appearance dramatically improved earlier today before the sheared look returned. the 5.0 rating, symmetry, and eye definition suggest that it probably peaked at about 90kt around 17z-18z (1-2pm). official track has it remaining tropical until tomorrow night.. sounds about right.
10L is the next item of interest. though it's been declassified since around mid-sunday, the organization of the system hasn't ever really deteriorated. it's been sheared, but as far as it having a defined cyclonic circulation.. well, it's still probably supporting 25-30kt winds in convection. there have been bursts of convection today as the circulation works wnw between 5-10kt (the center appeared to jump west around late morning)... nhc outlooks suggest they see it getting slowly better organized, potentially being reclassified tomorrow or thursday. there's a tentative recon for thursday, also. done the math enough to think it's going to get reclassified and keep tracking wnw during the week. long range tracks of the vorticity/pressure weakness vary into two schools from the models. eta/gfs take it nw past 60w towards bermuda or just to the west where irene went.. euro/nogaps have more favored it moving wnw to the bahamas around the weekend. a lot is dependent on the shortwave supposed to dig near the east coast around the weekend... as highlighted by some others. highly uncertain when we have a system that will probably develop further but as of right now is extremely weak and not well handled by the models.
some convection flaring south of the wave... other convection along the western edge of the central atlantic trough with a surface reflection... vortmax is tracked west by the models. fairly strong wave near the african coast that may well evaporate like the predecessor (only to re-emerge further west, perhaps). around fri-sat a strong wave that immediately develops is shown in the models.. means we'll probably have a westward moving invest around sunday/monday. lowering pressures near the gulf/west caribbean not paired with a conducive surface environment (low convergence and vorticity, fast flow)... should change as the trough weakens and pressures continue to slowly lower. whatever energy splits away from the TUTT may help trigger something. scott has an idea on this area that may hold water. bastardi thinks the vorticity out of the TUTT could be the culprit. i'm reserved on it... too fluid at this point.
as far as pattern evolution... soi has been diving from neutral for the last week.. on average slowly coming up. the mjo amplification is present in the western part of the basin coincident with an unfavorable upper pattern. clark has attributed it to blocking in the higher latitudes.. on the gfs ensembles i'm seeing the strength of the blocks weaken but be in constant transition. should keep the shear profile in the basin evolving but moderately unfavorable in many areas. makes me think it'll be later in the month before the heavy action starts.. but probably a system or two active at times in the meanwhile.
HF 0026z17august

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:27 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

ex TD 10 had quite the flare up this afternoon.... looks like he's winding back down a little right now... this will probably be the pattern for a day or two... I think its got a real good chance of developing and moving more west to west north west over time.... from what I can tell the LLC looks more healthier now than earlier today... which is key for redevelopment... see what happens over night... still fighting the shear monster but has the past two days... must be the year of the stubborn wave as Irene did pretty much the same ...

GOES floater link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

T-Numbeer are getting back up 16/2345-UTC-16.4N-53.9W-T1.5/1.5-10 1.5= 25 KTS =29 MPH

TropicalUpdate.com
Guide to Dvorak Classification of Satellite Images

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(T-Numbers/CI Numbers) Sat Image T-Number Description
CI = 0.5 Curved cloud lines define a cloud system center within
a deep cloud layer.
CI = 1.5 This stage should appear 24 hours later. System begins to
exhibit a curved appearance in satellite images.
CI = 2.5 Minimal tropical storm status is reached when curved band
spirals halfway around the center.
CI = 3.5 Strong tropical storm status...reaches hurricane status at
CI=4.0, once cloud band completely circles the center.
CI = 4.5 Eye usually becomes visible at CI=4.5.
CI = 5.5 Once eye is observed, increased CI numbers are based on
several factors, including temperature contrast between the center
and surrounding cloud tops...smoothness of the central dense
overcast, increase in eye definition, and the embedding of the eye

Here is the sites to my information http://www.tropicalupdate.com/atlantic_tropic_watch_guide_to_d.htm
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 17 2005 01:06 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Another item of interest is the energy from the 2 waves that somewhat came toghther near the Yucatan today. A big blob is coming off the west coast of the Peninsula. NOGAPS and FSU MM5 from 12z both close something off and bring it in near where Emily and Bret landfell. UKMET also closes something off down there right at the end of it's run. Results? Inconclusive. Most of the other globals want to spin some energy just off or on-shore of the NC/VA coastal areas around 72 hours. Whether that's a land feature or not is not conclusive either. Just a headsup for a couple of close-in events we might have to deal with before anything of African origin is back on the proverbial radar screen.. As for ex-10, it looks good to me, but I'd think it will be another 48 hours or longer before anything material happens down that way. If anything cranks, High Pressure is firmly entrenched over the Western Atlantic. Some of the models weaken it toward the 96-120 hour range, so anything coming up well could follow the Harvey/Irene/Franklin scenario.

Wait and see dude.

Steve

CruiserMD

(Registered User)

Wed Aug 17 2005 01:21 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Just stay away from my condo!!............

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 01:21 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Models look more towards Flordia/southeast coast now if it redevlops!

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 02:01 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

wow......nice sats tonight of wave/low east of islands....look at those storms flare up and nice outflow look....even though the center is somewhat exposed now....it looked real good this afternoon.....was a nice rapid flare up for a weak system...i think its near warm water now, to see such flare ups...but the shear is still there and it will have a few more days of it, before it can get a break.... i bet NHC will wait one more day before upgrade back to TD......i think they like to see the storms continue flaring up....seems right now it comes in short bursts.....it looks like more west movement than north right now (last few hrs)
next system

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Aug 17 2005 02:11 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Quote:

Models look more towards Flordia/southeast coast now if it redevlops!

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

Your linked site seems broken

Here is a direct link to the storm track it is "trying" to find and failing to build a proper link for: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 02:30 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

The wave associated with former TD 10 has a current intensity rating of 1.0. This equates to maximum winds of 25 knots and indicates an improvement over yesterday's "too weak" rating.

At this point in time, regeneration should not be ruled out. The longer this wave maintains its circulation, the better the odds of regeneration. By tomorrow, the environment could be growing more favorable. Hence, it would not surprise me if this system regained tropical depression status in the not-too-distant future.

Longer-term, it could still pose an eventual threat (moderate risk) to part of the S.E. U.S. (coastline from FL to NC, with FL somewhat favored). For now, a west-northwest track is likely to continue as the wave possibly moves toward regeneration.

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Aug 17 2005 02:30 AM

TC 10

Well for anyone who has a knowledge on the detailed history of andrew tc 10 is trying to follow his foot steps and all the key players are right where they were with andrew excpet for the el nino all tc10 has got to do is survive the shear.

yeah... all the players except.. intensity, synoptic pattern, sst profile, location, and trajectory. other than that they're exactly alike. -HF

Just as a note for everyone, as it has been a particularly touchy subject since Irene went through days upon days of shear. Hurricane Andrew was a deadly, powerful storm that bears no similarities to any of the systems out there in the basin, whether earlier this season, now, or likely later in the season as well. Not every storm that comes across the basin weak and sheared is another Andrew. There are many other ways to discuss the system, the tropics, and the current weather without trying to fit a system to a preconceived mold. Andrew affected the lives of millions of people, some of whom are on this board. Please respect their feelings and the power of that storm. Future comments will be removed. Thank you. -Clark

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 02:33 AM

Re: TC 10

well it's there, but give another day

TWOAT
1030pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH...HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THIS PERIOD.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 02:49 AM

Re: TC 10

I just checked all the models and none of them currently have TD10 doing anything...most have it gone in a few days and one, i think the UKMET, takes it towards the Northeastern Bahamas......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:09 AM

Re: TC 10

I'm surprised that the models are picking up on anything at all. Someone said that the tropical models have difficulty with weak systems. Stated that the best model for such a shallow and weak system was the bamm set.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:10 AM

Re: TC 10

Quote:

I just checked all the models and none of them currently have TD10 doing anything...most have it gone in a few days and one, i think the UKMET, takes it towards the Northeastern Bahamas......

Actually Damian, check out this site instead
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:13 AM

Re: TC 10

This is true.....however, in one model run, you can clearly see a system form in the western GOM, heading toward TX/MEX. Whats even more weird is not only do they not do well on weak systems - nogaps had former TD10 strengthening into a pretty good storm the other day. When i checked a little bit ago, nogaps has nothing. Weird, very weird.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:14 AM

Re: TC 10

Fat Mike, all three Bamm's are along the same lines of thinking now. This means that at all three levels of steering, the Bamm anticipates a more westerly track. Interesting. Obviously way to early to rely on the models, but perhaps an indication that if X-TD 10 can avoid the trough it may come more westward.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:14 AM

Re: TC 10

The Bamm model does a better job on a TD and weak TS, but right now you don't even have a TD. My guess the models do not have any real lock on the track as of now.................

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:57 AM

Re: TC 10

I think x10 will be 10 tommorow morning if not at 5 at 11 well I'm going to call it a night. See ya all later peace out.

(User)

Wed Aug 17 2005 06:15 AM

late comment

the low from what was td 10 sustained a long burst of deep convection this evening, and now is down to bare bones with a bunch of nearby cloud debris. a couple of the globals move 10L very close to the ne caribbean now. dependent on whether you believe in the coastal storm/trough early next week off the east coast, the threat beyond that may or may not exist. if the gfs and company are right the system will get near 70w and lift straight out. if the others are right it's over in the bahamas in about four days. pick your model.
HF 0615z17august

Ricreig

(User)

Wed Aug 17 2005 09:56 AM

Question in BLog

Quote:

First off, a quick question for everyone: do you like these daily updates when there are active storm events, or prefer fewer posts on the whole that are edited within threads on the main page?

Clark, and all the mets in general; I think there is great value in a conntinuing, even continuous flow of updates regardless of if an active storm exists or not. Storm genesis and overall pattern development is just as valuable in its own way as is insight on development and path of developed systems are. In general, one of the main features of this forum is the opportunity for us 'great unwashed masses', (read amateurs) to learn. While we may not have the education or desire to become mets ourselves, we wouldn't be here in most cases if we weren't interested in the subject at hand. Any insight from the pros helps us learn and improve our own skills. If we want to be spoon-fed, we will read the NHC Tropical Outlook reports which basically say "we are/are not tracking blah-blah and no other storms are likely to form before x-day". That's fine, but it is nice to have an insight as to 'WHY?'. Your and other mets frequent comments help us understand; why?.

I, for one, thank you for your (frequent) insightful posts!

IMNSHO
Richard

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 11:17 AM

Re: Track of old TD10

Looks like the models have swung more to the west and south over the last few days with old TD10. Probably in part due to the more westerly motion and track the last 48 hrs. Looks increasingly like a FL or possibly GOM threat down the road - that is, if it develops into more than a weak system.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

Wingman51

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:15 PM

ULL in the Gulf?

Just a totally off the wall Question - - Noticed on WV loop this morning that an ULL appears to be moving west in the northern GOM?? With existing SST's in the gulf being above average, is there any chance for additional surface development with this system? Also - - Why is it in retrograde?? Shouldn't it be drifting East instead of West?? Just curious.

Still learning in FL.

VolusiaMike

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:21 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

On the water vapor loop this morning there appears to be low (ULL) spinning at about 21N/61W. Looks like it is possibly pulling the X-TD10 in that direction.

Any thoughts about the possible effects?

Michael

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:22 PM

Re: Track of old TD10

Td 10 is looking better this morning on the floater 1 vis sat image. Due to its llc persistance I believe that # 10 will come back to life shortly. There now seems to be a trend setting in with these small systems which is they are able for some strange reason to survive even in the worst environment when in times past they would be totally sheared away and never to be heard from again. Maybe (just a thought) thatthe shear this year iis not reaching into the lower levels where yhe actual llc is located allowing it to survive long enough to get into better enviromental conditions. If #10 does survive where will it go? With the trends from the eariler storms F, H & I we see them moving toward the wnw into the western atlantic to recurve around the outer edges of the Bermuda high. My personal belief would be that this one will do the same if it gets n of the greater Antilles. Reasoning. Climatology and the track of past storms from this season. This storms track may have a similar track feature to that of Floyd &Irene from 1999 if it get far enough w. However even if it does happen to threaten Fl I do not see it crossing into the GOM at this time. Future strength will all depend on how much shear will be in the area after it gets futher w. Just my thoughts from many years of coastal living in eastern nc. J.C.
there's a mix from the globals as to what happens early next week (i.e., depth of trough, amplitude and progression). in the next couple of days we'll have a better idea where the recurvature path/profile of system will be. as for these systems surviving shear.. we get those every year just about. i personally think they declassified td 10 too quickly... it never 'opened up'.. just got a weak/sheared convective pattern. -HF

VolusiaMike

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:29 PM

Re: Question in BLog

Quote:

Quote:

First off, a quick question for everyone: do you like these daily updates when there are active storm events, or prefer fewer posts on the whole that are edited within threads on the main page?

Quote:

I agree with Richard. The information provided on a continuous basis provides for education, and often entertainment for those of us without the detailed backgrounds in the field. The ability to read the sometimes diverse opinions adds to our ability to learn and better understand the issues. As someone recently said about JB, he may not always be right, but he provides some interesting analysis of the conditions. I believe the same is true within these forums and appreciate the interaction.

I am responsbile for Emergency Management within my City and constantly monitor the site to get an idea of what issues may be impacting us far down the road. We often cannot wait for the five day forecast tracks to start indicating a threat to our area. Many of the preparatory actions we must take often take longer than that (it takes three days alone just to secure our City Hall when in a threatening situation). the information obtained from these discussions allows me a bit of extra time to get ready for possible problems.

Michael

MichaelA

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:32 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Quote:

On the water vapor loop this morning there appears to be low (ULL) spinning at about 21N/61W. Looks like it is possibly pulling the X-TD10 in that direction.

Any thoughts about the possible effects?

Michael

10 still looks very poorly organized, if at all, this morning. I think the most significant effect from that ULL is that it is keeping the SW shear relatively high over 10.

MichaelA

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Aug 17 2005 12:39 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Looking at the floater 1 loop, the LLC is still persisting with a small convection flare-up near that center. For the most part, the SW shear is also persisting. A surge in the low level easterlies seems to be overtaking 10 too.

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 01:11 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

What does ULL stand for?

meto

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 01:17 PM

Re: Track of old TD10

cape verde systems which this is have always been hard to kill. models are showing a more west path toward bahamas and Fl.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 01:31 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

ULL is Upper Level Low

meto

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 01:46 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

look at two this morning, nhc says sheer is to weaken. maybe td later today. and leeward and virgin isl. should be monitoring this closely.

(User)

Wed Aug 17 2005 02:41 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

to answer the subject header... yep. the nhc will probably reclassify it today. the shear which had been in the 10-20kt range over the system is now over the 5-15 kt range and more out of the south. the convection has been more or less sustained (with only short breaks in the bursts) for the last 24-36 hrs. system has been moving between 270-290 for the last 60 hours or so... gotten into a position where it can affect the weather in the extreme ne caribbean. the system could have been classified all along since it's retained a closed rotary circulation over warm waters, but all that convection the nhc likes to see should stick around now that the relative shear is on the wane. system should track in the general direction of the bahamas, just north of the islands, for the next 2 days. there's a broad weakness in the ridge near 70w and it may start to turn up into that. early next week a shortwave will dig into the ne us and may either keep digging and amplify the ridge off the east coast (which would turn the storm north and accelerate it) or split and insert either a stair step into the track if the system is still to the south... or just recurve it past bermuda. if the tracks of the last three storms in that part of the basin are any clue, recurvature is the ticket. the basic synoptic pattern which has existed since late july has only altered location somewhat, not really changed to a great degree. the caveat will be how much development along a post-frontal/coastal low off hatteras occurs.. the globals that favor it greatly recurve 10 unanimously.. the ones with less dramatic development favor its continued wnw/nw movement to east of the bahamas by monday.
the canadian and a couple of globals are developing a caribbean/w gulf storm for either texas or mexico late mid/late next week (perhaps the precursor is either the retrograding trough energy n of hispaniola or the disturbance being drawn northwestward out of venezuela.
numerous globals are suggesting a cape verde system next week also. the current high-amplitude wave doesn't really have any support... strong convergence and a monsoon trough are setting up near the african coast. should be convergent area near the eastern caribbean by the weekend also.
eastpac trying to develop one disturbance sw of the baja and will probably have another near the gulf of tehuantepec in a couple of days. mjo has weakened some, but the zonal anomalies favoring activity are still going to serve as a somewhat favorable environmental factor over the next few weeks.
HF 1441z17august

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 02:47 PM

Re: Track of old TD10

Quote:

cape verde systems which this is have always been hard to kill. models are showing a more west path toward bahamas and Fl.

You said it! What's going on? These systems that one would expect to get sheared to shreds are turning into hanger-oners. Let's just hope this is just a fluke and not a trend being established for the rest of the season or NHC very well may have to update their updated forecast for the season.

My thoughts on former TD10 - I believe that if it's survived the past several days in the hostile conditions that it has, this one's a fighter. It might have been ropa-doped a bit but, it's making a come back. I don't think though that NHC will give it it's offical stamp until they see more sustained bursts of convection. My guess is going to be for tomorrow late afternoon (5pm). Early model runs suggest that Florida is once again wearing the target. But, alas it's way too early to start speculating on that sort of thing.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:01 PM

Re: Track of old TD10

what computer model may i ask? all the ones i see dont show that so since you said the models please tell me which model.

click on the model plot below the main article. most are dynamic and statistical models. the globals generally are further north, but they have it initialized very poorly. -HF

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:08 PM

Re: Track of old TD10

The water temps here this morning are an amazing 90 degrees!That has to be bad news if any storms come this way.Former TD10 does seem like a fighter,and needs to be watched.I think the upgrade a 5pm tommorow seems very possible.

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:11 PM

Re: Track of old TD10

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:18 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Hey everyone. I'm new to the Cocoa area and haven't even met the neighbors yet. I'm just about to leave town for a week to go get the rest of my family, and I am watching the tropical situation.

I'm trying to decide whether to install my storm shutters or not. I feel like if I do, and there's no definite storm on the way, it will advertise to "bad people" that we're not during that whole period. So I have mixed feelings about just throwing the shutters up... Any thoughts/suggestions? I've heard a lot about last year's season and don't want to take any chances

Wingman51

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:27 PM

Aircraft Recon Scheduled

TD 10 Lives - - Aircraft Recon scheduled for 2 flights to investigate - posted at 11:00 am to day.

Still learning in FL

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:31 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Theses flights are scheduled for tomorrow.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:33 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

Wingman,

The ULL is not going to develop. Nor is the one down in the Caribbean. What I wouldn't rule out is the wave energy to the South of the ULL draped across the Gulf nor would I rule out the energy in the southern Caribbean just SE of the TUTT low splitting SW toward Central America. But the ULL's themselves, in these 2 cases, will not form into anything tropical.

Steve

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:45 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

Not to change the subject, but why does the Navy have 10L also listed as 90L ?(with a tropical cyclone information alert?) ANYONE?

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

meto

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:46 PM

Re: Track of old TD10

look at swfmd models.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 03:56 PM

Re: Track of old TD10

Can you provide a link to them?

Just a heads-up: you can get to them and many other model plots from the main page. There's also a link directly to the SFWMD plots on a previous page in this thread. --Clark

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:05 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Yes, definitley install them it's not because i am thinking anything will come our way(fl) but after last season we've all learned the unpredictability of these storms, besides theres nothing wrong with protecting your investment. I wouldn't close the shutters just yet though that might send the wrong signal.

Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:07 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

I see the navy posting it as 10LNONAME.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:19 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

Answer to BigKahuna, you are at the backup site for NRL. but they will pick one and drop the other. Perhaps they foresee dropping it as an invest and going with an upgrade at 5pm.....maybe. As a sidenote to another post, I saw the water temps at 20 nmi and 120 nmi east of New Smryna beach at 89 and 90 degrees, respectively. I don't remember seeing the temps that high at those buoys since I've been in Florida (20 years). Point is, there's gasoline out there to fuel any fire that may come this way. Shear still needs to lessen quite a bit for 10L to start wrapping convection. Needs to get past that troughiness out there. Check back at 5. Cheer!!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:30 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

Thanks. Now maybe someone can help me with this one.... On the navy site I click on 10L track http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/10L.NONAME/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html then click on Legend just above the pic http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/graphic_key/ . What is that graph? I understand some of it but which way is 10L going to go?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:33 PM

10's Redevlopment

Looks like convection is getting pretty persistent and look like it should be a TD at 5. The convection is looking fairly organized two.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:34 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

Looking at the bouy data near EX#10, it doesn't show any significant change with the overall weather pattern, ie; pressure, winds, seastate etc. Also reports coming out of the CARIB locations, do not show any decrease in pressure. Not sure if this going to become a depression again due to the shear enviroment it is in. However, with that being said, and what took place with Irene, we cannot take anything for granted this season. My gut insticnt tells me and I believe we will have it again surely by the 11PM post from the NHC if not sooner.

Lisa NC

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:37 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

what you are seeing on the Navy site is old Information. Notice the dates for positions( the first 2 number). The last time it was up dated was Aug 14. you can see by Sat loops it still about where they thought it would be.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:37 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

The graph you are looking at is for the far East sysytem. The graph itself is how the Navy sends out their information to all of it's ships in the path of a tropical cyclone, so they can plot it on the computer systems to track.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:48 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

Quote:

The graph you are looking at is for the far East sysytem. The graph itself is how the Navy sends out their information to all of it's ships in the path of a tropical cyclone, so they can plot it on the computer systems to track. [/quote

Has anyone taken a look at the entity behind former#10. I am impressed with it's outflow already. Classic tell tale sign. Might be a depression already.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:51 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

I've noticed the system out near 30 degrees- but it is so far south; yet, an item of interest for next week?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:56 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

Thanks again. I now see the forcasted track at 20N- 134E Dah.... I guess the names of the Islands should have gave it away too. Because it was a link from http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html and 10L, thats what I thought I was looking at. Just didnt read all the info..

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 04:57 PM

Re: Aircraft Recon Scheduled

The attachment shows what could possibly be our next invest will be.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 05:07 PM

Re: Old TD10

The latest VIS SAT on old TD10 shows a little better organization with improved convection on the eastern band and some new convection starting on the SW side. Overall, shear seems to be lessening and the ULL to the NW looks to be moving off to the NW and weakening. Shear forecasts are favorable after 24 hrs and the SHIPS model takes the system to a 70 knot hurricane in 120 hours.

Where it goes...the numerical models have shifted south and west during the last couple of days but looking at the big global picture, it seems like a fairly vigorous trough is forecast along the east coast from 4-5 days out which would weaken the Atlantic Ridge and possibly cause a more poleward motion. Some mixed assessments on this from the HPC with the ECMWF model showing less trough amplification and the GFS showing more. Also, depends on the development of a coastal NC low/trough which weakens the ridge as depicted in some of the global models. If the trough is weaker, then maybe a stairstep north and back west again. All in all, too early to tell.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 17 2005 05:31 PM

Re: Old TD10

Just as a heads-up for everyone...

1) The disturbance in the extreme eastern Pacific is the one that model guidance has been harping on to develop for some time now. It is getting organized pretty quickly and has a decent shot at becoming a classified storm later tonight if trends continue.

2) The activity coming off of the Virginia & North Carolina coasts now is the makings of that coastal low that some of the models are picking up on. It remains to be seen what it actually does, if anything, but there's the start.

3) I expect TD 10 to be re-classified at 5pm if the convective pattern at least maintains status quo for the next 3-4 hours. I hate to sound like a broken record, but I don't know why it wasn't reclassified earlier today. It should just miss the islands -- we can thank a weakness in the subtropical ridge partially perpetrated by how far south Irene has stayed -- but turn back a bit more towards the west-northwest from there. What it does beyond 2 days is still up for debate.

4) The wave out in the Atlantic looks fairly impressive, but it's got a pretty stable environment to the north of it's axis & deepest convection. It's also pretty far south and much of the energy is sticking back towards the African coast & Cape Verdes -- as the models called for -- in advance of the big wave they forecast to come off in about 3 days now. it's got a shot, as everything out there does this time of year, but not a big one.

5) The energy in the SW Caribbean looks impressive on IR imagery, but I think the bark is bigger than the bite -- for right now, as it is largely forced by divergent upper-level winds on the west side of the broad west-central Atlantic trough. As the EPac disturbance moves westward, this should pivot around toward the NW (and toward the Yucutan). Some models call for it to do something in the Gulf -- which we've already seen twice this year -- so if the energy can hold together, it might be worth watching.

6) Irene, meet shear. Shear, meet Irene. You two get along now, okay?

Full update tonight, if I get a chance...otherwise tomorrow.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 05:53 PM

Re: Old TD10

Well Former TD 10 is looking the same as its been for awhile. I wouldnt upgrade it yet due to the lack of T-Storms near its center, infact only reason its flaring up during the day is due to the upper low to its NW. I still dont expect much to come from this at all. If it does become a TD or TS in a couple days, I expect it to stay east of the bahamas and move N and out to sea near Irenes path.
Area in the SW carribean is in a shear zone. A upper trough and low will enhance T-Storms as the main low pressure develops in the eastern pacific and moves west. As the upper low weakens over central america, expect a low to develop in the next day or 2 and move off Honduras and over the Yucitan. Once in the BOC or Gulf it could strengthn into a TS.
Otherwise, next main area for development will be off of the African coast by this weekend.

scottsvb

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 05:59 PM

Re: Old TD10

Clark -

Forgive my ignorant question(s);

1. The coastal low off the VA/NC coast...it's the start of what exactly? I am hoping you'll say: One of the components which will have TD10 skirt the Bahamas on the east side and slide up & out into open waters.

2. Where is the current data placing what will most likely be TD10 again, say Saturday AM?

You & RJB are a wealth of information....thanks!

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 06:48 PM

Re: Old TD10

Looks like the covection is flaring up even more

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 06:52 PM

Re: Old TD10

SHIPS model 1800Z run takes the system to a 62 knots TS in 120 hours, which means the models have no real handle on this system seems to be going back on track models same as 006Z this morning, also scatt drop some this PM to 1.0/1.0.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 06:58 PM

Re: Old TD10

Pressure is around 1009mb so its boarderline TD status, has everything but T-Storms near the center (although a flare up) anyways with pressure at 1009mb its up to NHC to want to make this a TD again.

scottsvb

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:03 PM

Re: Old TD10

Scottsvb.
How did you get 1009 when the 2:05PM has it at 1012?

1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...WAS NEAR 16N55W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO
10 KT.

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:04 PM

Re: Old TD10

Still looks very disorganized...lot of shear...don't think we will see any classifaction at 5.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:06 PM

Re: Old TD10

There is a new invest in the eastern pacific and it look good also 99E invest is shear and it look like it has a LLC?! Here is attachment of the two they are labeled in the top left corner.

Im not sure if this is a relevent post but I couldnt find any threads for the Eastern Pacific

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:07 PM

Re: Old TD10

Here is the other one sorry for inconvenice.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:09 PM

Re: Old TD10

1009mb is on the NRL site, new updated sat. I get info from many spots.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:11 PM

Re: Old TD10 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

tpratch

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:19 PM

Re: Old TD10

There's a small amount of excitement with any hurricane. Even going through Frances and Jeanne last year, I too feel it still.

That being said, this particular argument about the posters here "hoping" for a hurricane has been hashed out and ruled extremely out of bounds. Trying to question motives of people you hardly know is highly inappropriate on most forums, and this board makes no exception to that rule.

Please don't make us "weather lovers" out to be people with appetites for destruction - it's just not the case.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:20 PM

Re: Old TD10

For all:

This website has a wealth of information that I find no where else.

www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:26 PM

Re: Old TD10

scott -- ex-TD 10 has been flaring up convection every day thus far for the past 3-4, partially aided by some upper-level divergent winds, yes, but gradually growing better organized and nearer to the center. With a closed LLC, good low-level organization, and the convection over the center as of the past couple of hours (if slightly disorganized), it meets all of the criteria for being a TD. I guess I should put it this way -- if Irene was a TD for so long despite a worse apperance and worse organization, how is this one not? Granted, it's not the best way to base an argument for this being a TD, but I guess I'm just searchnig for a little consistency. Nevertheless, whether it is a TD now or not, it should get there soon enough.

native -- *if* it gets going, it is the feature some are showing to perhaps be a conduit for TD 10 to recurve. But that isn't a given at this point. As for where the system is in 4 days, that's largely dependent upon how strong it is, whether that low materializes or not, and a whole slew of other facotrs (including the evolution of the subtropical ridge). Can't really say right now.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:28 PM

Re: Old TD10

I would like to respond to this. Every so often, we get a storm of a great magnitude, whether it be a Major Snowstorm or Hurricane. The fact remains, it is all about mother nature and her fury that brings out the best in all MET's and observers. It is obvious that we don't want to alarm or expect that every system will turn out to be a destructive hurricane, to destroy everything in it's wake, it is a simple fact of measuring the power of a specific entity. Having said that, we are just consumed at the production of a storm till the end. If all storms remain off the coast, we would still post on this forum regardless.

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:35 PM

Re: Old TD10

Just out on the east central florida forecast:
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD TD #10. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
REGENERATION WITH HPC DAY 6/7 POSITIONS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:38 PM

Re: Old TD10

first off, i dont really look at the local weather service tropical forecasts, because they look at ONLY the models, and exclude what is actually happening. Second, as to the consistancy question, Irene had a worse appearance on satellite than XTD10, but Irene had a better-defined LLC.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:39 PM

Re: Old TD10

I think ex10 will be 10 again sometime tonight or they might just wait till recon get out there looks like Irene is going extratropical and the persistant convection around 30w s of 10n if it getts away from the ITZC it could become a storm but not for more than a few days.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:48 PM

Re: Old TD10

But aren't models based on actual data that is put in them?

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:49 PM

Re: Old TD10

Here is the afternoon HPC forecast the the next 7 days. I guess TD10 is what is showing in the last three days.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 07:50 PM

Re: Old TD10

The models really rely on a RECON to provide the most accurate data that the models need to provide some logic in forecasting and predictions. Also, the elements at hand also play a role in what the NHC puts out.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 08:15 PM

Re: Old TD10

the problem with some of the models is that they have a tendancy to underpredict intensity, especially with small systems.

I just saw the satellite imagery and XTD10 seems to be getting better organized, despite the strong shear over top of it (sound a little familiar?)

I think it is still possible for this to become a minimal tropical storm in time to break the record for 10 (which is August 23)

also, if anyone is interested, today is the anniversary of Camille in 1969.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 08:29 PM

Re: Old TD10

The models should be able to get a good grip on Td 10 tomorrow when recon goes in there. I'm thinking they will find a tropical storm in it. This year NHC hasn't done very well with sheared storms this year and so the intensity is usually higher than what they say when recon goes in there remember Franklin and Harvey!¿?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 08:50 PM

Re: Old TD10

NHC In its surface forecast says Td 10 will be over Porte Rico at 48hours and in the northern Bahamas in 72hours and has a ridge extending from notherneastern gulf to the a high in the atlantic.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 08:54 PM

Re: Old TD10

And as the ridge pulls back eastward over the Atlantic then that should pick up TD10 in a northerly direction following in Irene's geenral path.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 17 2005 09:09 PM

Re: Old TD10

all of the models show something in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 72 hours (very close to where Gert developed) and something off the coast of Africa in 120 hours

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 17 2005 09:10 PM

Re: Old TD10

Here is an Intresting projected Path!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 09:15 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Dont think this system is going to turn north like Irene strong high pressure would make it move more to the west and west north west.

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Aug 17 2005 09:36 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Something about 10 just says "It won't give up easily" and the continuing convection just adds to that idea.

The storm tracks, while highly inaccurate on weak storms, certainly place the southeastern seaboard under the gun: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 17 2005 10:17 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

I pretty sure this system will stay east of Florida. A front/trough is heading down the NE coast next week. The front could make it to N. Fl. This could open up the tropics. Starting next week. That is what some of the global models were depicting. Have to wait and see if it verifies.

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 17 2005 11:17 PM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

This is a 72 hour forecast from the NWS issued at 8:30 this morning. Not showing much weakness in the ridge. Remember this is only a forecast not prescience.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
Here's more:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/current_storms/al902005.tcf

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 12:02 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Ex TD 10's convective pattern is looking rather disorganized this evening.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

The system is also running into another area of shear at this time.

Judging from what I see now, I believe that tomorrow (Thursday) is the absolute earliest that we see the reclassification of TD 10. But I'm thinking more Friday, possibly even Saturday.

A longer post is coming up, perhaps tomorrow.

(User)

Thu Aug 18 2005 12:28 AM

convective pattern

it's either at the diurnal minimum or in real trouble for the first time in its life. there hasn't been any deep convection.. just scattered stuff.. since earlier today. it does look like the circulation broadened some today as well. be kinda anticlimatic for td 10 to persist for 3 days after declassification, make us all expect it to regenerate.. and then puff out as it nears an improved environment.
i'd say the earlier near certainty of regeneration is down to a strong possibility. if the convective pattern stays weak for the next few hours the chances begin to lengthen significantly.
it has overnight to liven up. if it still looks this way tomorrow morning i'd expect recon to be cancelled.
HF 0028z18august

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 01:06 AM

Re: convective pattern

I remember Irene almost when kaput right before it went in to a favorable environment and then just explode with convection the next morning. I think that is what 10 is doing must be some kind of adjustment to favorable environment.

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:04 AM

Re: convective pattern

Well they didnt upgrade it to a TD at 5pm and rightfully so. The pressure maybe be there but the lack of T-Storms near the center and us all seeing the flare ups are being induced by the upper low to its NW, tells us the system is just holding its own. I wouldnt be surprised if they cancel the flight tomorrow unless a major flare-up happens later tonight. Still its not the system doing it,,its the upper low to its NW. Seriously though, I wouldnt worry about this until maybe near 70w if its still around and by then its a system going to be pulled out due to the strong trough off the east coast by the weekend into early next week.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:05 AM

Central Caribbean..

Most are watching X TD10 or 96L, I'm more interested in that big flare up in the central Caribbean this evening if the convection hangs around for 12 to 24 hours this could be trouble no signs of convection moving right now..

Dave

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:10 AM

Re: Central Caribbean..

That activity in the central Caribbean is just south of a sharp upper-level trough across much of the Greater Antilles and central Caribbean, largely forced by divergent upper-level winds. If the trough were to fill and the convection persist, it might do something, but odds are that the trough will stay in place. It'll help to keep the convection going, but it should stay unorganized as a result. As the energy moves more to the NW, it might have a better shot...just my thinking right now, though.

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:14 AM

Re: Central Caribbean..

The central carribean area looks good on infrered, but its induced by the trough and upper low extending from the western carribean NE through hispaniola NE into the central and northern Atlantic. A ridge is trying to form near Aruba extending into the sw carribean. Expect the upperlow to be extended into a trough over central america over the next day or so as a ridge from Aruba moves west into ther western Carribean. A low is forming now just east of Nicaragua. This will move slowly NW to just east of Belieze tomorrow and into the Yucitan and BOC or GOM later this weekend. Still I forecast this to have the best chance of developing.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:16 AM

Re: Central Caribbean..

Clark:
I hope you are right, just that history has shown that a large convection in Central or Western Caribbean that hangs in there for 24 hours some how becomes a Storm.

Dave

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:26 AM

Re: Central Caribbean..

>>where?~danielw

It's an attachment to his post.

Steve

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:35 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Quote:

This is a 72 hour forecast from the NWS issued at 8:30 this morning. Not showing much weakness in the ridge. Remember this is only a forecast not prescience.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
Here's more:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/current_storms/al902005.tcf

The link in the NRL site show this as a possible invest. It also show it at 16N and 56W. The recon on the first flight tomorrow is at 19.2N and 61.2W. So is this the same or is the al90 that the NRL is showing a all different area?

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:41 AM

Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Man-I thought ex TD 10 looked bad earlier this evening...really starting to look like hell now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

As HF said earlier tonight, this system might be experiencing its first bout with real trouble. I'm beginning to lean towards no development...we'll see how it looks in the morning.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:48 AM

GFS 16 days out..

Has anybody looked at GFS model 16 days out, the model is showing one big bad Low coming to East Coast, Hope that one doesn't come true..

Dave

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:56 AM

Re: GFS 16 days out..

link? for model

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:57 AM

Re: GFS 16 days out..

Do you have a link Sailor? I would like to look at that

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 03:05 AM

Re: GFS 16 days out..

Linkage: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_384.shtml

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 03:06 AM

Re: GFS 16 days out..

i know i love my baseball teams message board NOBODY is allowed to post something that either something someone said or about without a LINK.

They even got a nice little thing 2 smiliey faces holding up a link sign its great.

So would be a link.

does anybody know what ralph is trying to say? maybe you'd like to translate that for us. or just delete it yourself if it isn't on topic. -HF

I think he's saying that on his favorite baseball team's message board, they have a policy where if you share something, you've gotta back it up with a link...so he wanted one for the model here as well. --Clark

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 03:23 AM

Re: GFS 16 days out..

Going to post the Model link but see it has been done by another poster..

Dave

(User)

Thu Aug 18 2005 04:39 AM

Re: GFS 16 days out..

i'd be highly suspicious of the gfs output right now, as the different flavors of the gfs used for medium range forecasting don't agree on the upcoming pattern features... and most of the other models are way out of sync at long range also. if you want to keep tabs on that stuff it's linked off the page www.ncep.noaa.gov
click on 6-10 day and prognostic discussion for that.. the gfs and nam models can be found on the model analyses and forecasts tab, also.
all of the model disagreement over the forecast out from 3-4 days suggests that the pattern will be transitioning. my take is that it means that whatever tropical cyclone behavior we've been seeing over the past month or so will probably be replaced by something else.
former 10L's forecast is extremely uncertain. almost all of the model runs today have it moving through the upper trough ahead of it and continuing wnw/nw. there is that weakness in the ridge near 70w.. but it isn't much of a weakness.. and won't be enough to turn it up unless the storm is deepening. ahead of that is a ridge that various models are showing as persisting.. separating features below 30 deg latitude or so from the trough to the north. the trough's evolution on models makes me think that it will be strong but not very deep.. and will have some component split sw next week. this evolution of features favors ridging replacing the troughiness we've seen in the western caribbean and gulf, as well as lowering pressures at the surface.. most of the models are in agreement on this piece of the puzzle. numerous globals are also showing a westward-moving tropical cyclone in the cape verde region next week also.
10L is the thing i keep returning to. the convection went down earlier this evening but has returned some.. the realignment of the upper trough has increased shear once again. it has kept a low trajectory and should move very close or over the northern lesser antilles tomorrow night. a majority of the models favor its continued wnw movement... ecmwf, gfdl, ukmet, nogaps, etc track its vorticity or low to a position near the bahamas late in the weekend. nam has it stalled near 22/65 for days. as shallow as it remains.. if it survives the next day or two the consensus prog looks good to me.
whether anything stirs up near the bahamas/off the east coast with the energy cut off from the TUTT/frontal leavings off the carolinas is less of a likelihood, but these areas need to be watched as well.
i did think the basin would be more active at this point, a couple of weeks ago. mjo has petered out quite a bit before the enhancing anomalies could really take hold, and soi is oscillating near and just below neutral. still based on climo and the transitional pattern we should see an active span in the next two weeks.. i'd say 3-4 named storms before the month ends.
HF 0439z18august

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 11:05 AM

Re: GFS 16 days out..

Looks a LOT better on IR this morning (especially when considering that it looked like it was on life support last night). Visible still not too impressive, but I think the odds of reclassification are once again high. Pending recon, perhaps 5 or 11 PM today? I'm sure the NHC will be willing to classify the system (even if it were to not 100% deserve it) so that they can get warnings up for the islands. Also, difficult to telll, but on IR still appears that the system is moving W. That, combined with the S shift in a few of the models today, perhaps increases the threat of a keys hit. I'm still not sold that the trough won't turn this puppy up before it hits land, however.

IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
models: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Aug 18 2005 11:07 AM

Re: Clark's Blog

"Ridging and SSTs are favorable along the coast, moisture is increasing (and projected to continue to do so), but those pesky troughs are still there along 40W. If those can move north or out of the picture, conditions will become a lot more favorable for something to develop. Maybe later this month."

Thanks but no thanks Clark. I know how "exciting" these systems can be for some, but most of us in central Florida would prefer that those"pesky" troughs remain in place! Thrills can be had at any amusement park, rather than at the cost of peoples lives.
anything that hangs around harrassing anything for a month is pesky. td 10 is pesky too... it's been dead for four days and won't stop thumping around inside its coffin. you're insinuating that clark wants death and destruction and trying to shame him.. when you should be paying attention to the forecast ideas. personally, i think driving is fun.. but you a lot more likely to be killed driving than you are by a hurricane. shame on me. -HF

I'm not saying anything about what I want to happen with that statement. I'm saying that we've had troughs out there that just have kept replacing themselves, which by definition is pesky. I wish no storm upon anyone -- and quite frankly, if a storm develops into a hurricane out at 40 W, it is much more likely to recurve harmlessly out to sea than it is to hit land.

I'm from Central Florida myself; my family still lives there. They had to deal with Charley passing directly over their house and flooding from Frances and Jeanne. I'm going to be one of the last people you see wish death & destruction on anyone. --Clark

Sheeper

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Aug 18 2005 11:45 AM

Re: Clark's Blog

Those of us living on the florida east coast (and on a barrier island, to boot)prefer less excitment than hurricanes may bring. From the looks of the infared sat images, there is a lot more brewing coming off the africa coast. If the ridging holds up then we're looking for systems to track way more south or move more northerly.

FYI, this is my first post here but i've been lurking a while. I'm also a professional emergency management guy and a national red cross disaster services committee chair.

----- Welcome!

LI Phil

(User)

Thu Aug 18 2005 12:05 PM

Back To Life?

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Aug 18 2005 12:28 PM

Re: Back To Life?

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc....Fort_Lauderdale
I'm going to say bye to Td10/Jose.

Edit - let's not wishcast please..

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Thu Aug 18 2005 01:09 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Automated SST mapping test. SST data current as of 5:30pm EST yesterday.

Links to a large file (1000 x 590 @ 92.3k). Dial up users beware.

(User)

Thu Aug 18 2005 01:28 PM

Re: Back To Life?

i was watching an accuweather pundit the other night make an argument: 'look at the nhc definition of a tropical depression: a closed rotary warm-core circulation over warm waters with winds below 34kt. it doesn't say anything about thunderstorms.' the criteria i keep returning to is td 4 from 2000... a very tiny but tight low-level swirl that emerged from a complex east of florida... that often had one tiny thunderstorm sitting on its inner band. i would argue that td 10 has been a tropical depression all along, as it has met the requirements assigned by the nhc since august 12-13. after watching irene traverse the atlantic for days as a sheared system, with the center exposed more than covered.. i'd say the very similar td 10 has been the same type of system. x td 10 has also taken a track that is bringing it very near the ne caribbean... recon discovering a tropical depression this afternoon might require immediate watches.
the nhc needs to come up with a more consistent policy towards what constitutes a tropical depression. they have a definition with no minimum threshold, randomly add other criteria, and often choose to ignore very plain evidence with sheared systems. because they are inherently hard to forecast and often unstable, nhc probably ignores them as much as possible to keep their verification stats up. if you don't issue a forecast... it can't be wrong. it's one of the biggest cop-outs in weather forecasting.
HF 1328z18august

AgentB

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 01:33 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Nice map Skeeto, thanks!

Former 10 looking better on the I.R. loops this morning, and it will be interesting to see what the recon comes back with. This one's a fighter for sure.

Ricreig

(User)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:00 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Quote:

,,, often choose to ignore very plain evidence with sheared systems. because they are inherently hard to forecast and often unstable, nhc probably ignores them as much as possible to keep their verification stats up. if you don't issue a forecast... it can't be wrong. it's one of the biggest cop-outs in weather forecasting.

HF, it is hard to argue with arguments like that so I think the criterial *should* be better defined than they are. But, apparantly they aren't for now so that means what the NHC chooses to do in cases like this are 'legal' or correct, albeit inconsistant. I must observe that the NHC is charged by international agreements to provide forecasting services for tropical weather to many other countries. The word 'legal' used above triggers another question: Is the criteria the NHC uses based somewhat on legal considerations as much as or more than weather or statistical considerations? The NHC seems to be more inconsistant when nothing is in immediate danger. Notable exceptions to that do include recent storms killing thousnds in the islands that weren't classified or under-classified storms, but I get the impression over the years that if fish are the only ones affected, the NHC witholds its 'blessing' until the issue is forced. It is frustrating to many of us, but it is not dangerous unless no one is watching and I'll bet even though unclassified, xTD10 was being closely watched by them.XTD10 is now too close to ignore much longer so I think unless it obviously dissipates PDQ, the NHC will be reclassifying it shortly to give the Bahamas or even US interests time to put their acts in gear. Persistancy is one of the criteria often cited for 'watch me', and it would be pretty hard to say that xTD10 hasn't been persistant. The question remains, are legal factors involved?

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:14 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I believe the issue over classification falls under risk management and the ensuing costs associated with classifying a system. Even the islands would have to implement their version of emergency management protocols which would certainly deplete their national treasuries.

I guess the risk factors have to justify these expenditures and they in turn depend on when the NHC classifies former and future TD10 and other systems with the associated directions and projected strengths.

It all adds up to money.

(User)

Thu Aug 18 2005 02:40 PM

Re: Back To Life?

i'm just concerned with facts. facts are hard to establish when we can't agree that if 2+2=4, then 2+2 will always =4. the nhc has a similar problem... they view tropical cyclone classification as a subjective matter. the simple solution would be to make a set of criteria that doesn't change with the wind and use it... that would be relatively easy. i would agree with the argument that they're avoiding objectivity because objectivity requires them to produce track/intensity numbers.. and that this is an especially difficult case that they're trying to dodge, since it will make their verification numbers less impressive.
in spite of the improved convective signature this morning.. the low cloud movements have me thinking that the circulation is either further north in the convection or has opened up. recon may not find anything this afternoon. the surface circulation looked good mon-tue, but since yesterday it's gotten indistinct.
HF 1440z18august

B.C.Francis

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 03:48 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I thought this was a pretty interesting 120 hour forcast track. I don`t know if it will pan out. It sure would get things hoppin on the south east coast if it becomes reality with are TD 10 wanna be...Weatherchef web page

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Aug 18 2005 04:13 PM

Re: Back To Life?

The definition of a tropical depression on the NHC website is as follows:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Meanwhile, a tropical cyclone is defined as follows:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

So thunderstorms (organized convection) are a criteria for a tropical depression because of the tropical cyclone criteria. This may not always be consistently applied, but in the case of former T.D. 10, I think it is more of a case that the system simply wasn't strong enough to be classified. While it isn't listed on the website, in practice there seems to be a lower limit of 30 mph sustained winds in order for a system to be considered a depression. Since T.D. 10 peaked at 35 mph (estimated, obviously) and then weakened, it appears to have fallen into the unofficial category of "remnant low".
organized deep convection.. lets see. the system has been more or less maintaining 1.0-1.5 dvorak ratings, implying some degree of organization. considering that the convection pattern has been sheared, it's probably been underrating the actual low-level structure... they've been getting 25-30kt satellite wind vectors to go along with that. after watching irene charge through days of shear with an exposed center, the nhc declares dead a remarkably similar system. it just isn't consistent.

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 04:27 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I noticed the NHC is still planning to send a plane out even though the system (ex-TD 10 ) is looking less organized. Are they doing this because the system is closer to the islands? Also, what is hindering development at this time?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Aug 18 2005 04:30 PM

Re: Back To Life?

According to the NHC-
Convection - Generally, transport of heat and moisture by the movement of a fluid. In meteorology, the term is used specifically to describe vertical transport of heat and moisture, especially by updrafts and downdrafts in an unstable atmosphere. The terms "convection" and "thunderstorms" often are used interchangeably, although thunderstorms are only one form of convection. Cbs, towering cumulus clouds, and ACCAS clouds all are visible forms of convection. However, convection is not always made visible by clouds. Convection which occurs without cloud formation is called dry convection, while the visible convection processes referred to above are forms of moist convection.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 04:39 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Beaumont, plane is actually on it's way now. We should begin getting reports from the system in roughly 2 hours.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 04:57 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Looks like banding features and outflow are becoming more apparent. I suspect Recon will find a TD or maybe a Odd Tropical storm. It convection is also getting better.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:07 PM

(ex)TD-10 and 13N 82W?

So, If I have a theory, I think the collapse of thunderstorms killed the tight center that ex TD10 had held for the last few days, but the general circulation still held together while the inner part has been rebuilding over the last several hours. The shear is still eating the storm alive. but it's not dead yet. I'd say a weak depression after Recon.

Now, there's a broad area of low pressure around 13N 82W, there is a lot of convection there, but, what would it take to get it's act together and become a Tropical Depression?

-Mark

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:10 PM

Re: Back To Life?

There's a very, very weak low level center...at best. The circulation appears to have opened up on the south side overnight, with very little in the way of discernable cloud motions to the east on the southern side of the system. A recent microwave imager pass suggests a very broad area of lower pressure near 19N/61W, but gives no indication of the banding features present over the past few days at lower levels. We'll know more once recon gets out there (thanks Brad), but the chances for this one are dwindling. Convection is going much like it did yesterday...blowing up, looking somewhat organized in the late morning hours (ET), only to become disorganized later in the day. If a new center were to form near 19N/58.5W, it might have a shot...but that's iffy at best.

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:12 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Well we have my system that is close to TD status down there in the SW Carribean but the NHC wont upgrade it at 5pm cause they expect it to move into Nicaragua-Honduras by tonight or most likely tomorrow morning. Surface data show a circulation and pressures near 1007mb. Vis sat also show it near 11.5N and 80.8W with convection near the center. IF this was off the east coast of Florida or anywhere in the U.S> they would upgrade this immediatly.
Anyways I expect this to possibly move onshore near ne Nicargua near the Honduras boarder and then move offshore N of there and move NNW near Belieze and the Yucitan later Friday night into Saturday. I bet later Friday into Sat the NHC will pay alot more attention to this. WIth the trough coming down into the N Gulf Sunday into early next week, it could push anything in the eastern gulf ne across florida, and anything in the central gulf N and NNE between N.O and the Panhandle. IF the system is in the BOC or western gulf then if will probably miss the trough and move onshore Mx. Anyways thats my thoughts and this does support a TD,

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:15 PM

Re: (ex)TD-10 and 13N 82W?

That area near 13N/82W is really tied to an upper-level low. It's pretty close to a fledgling EPac disturbance near 90W as well. They've got to become further separated and upper-level winds need to improve for that one to have a shot...it's also got to stay over water. Maybe down the line if it gets to the Bay of Campeche, but probably not in the short-term.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:18 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Clark:

I agree with everything you said about former TD 10 - the circulation does appear to have opened up, and what someone else characterized as banding features appear to be just convection being sheared away - but I have a question about the recon data.

Unless 2 planes are out there, it appears that recon is still very far west of the disturbance - at 66.3W as of the latest recon report:

URNT11 KNHC 181708
97779 16584 50199 66300 76200 25012 72741 /5761
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 16

If so, then the fact that recon has sent back so many observation reports means nothing in terms of recon having trouble finding a circulation.

Am I reading this incorrectly?

-Brad

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:23 PM

Re: (ex)TD-10 and 13N 82W?

The E-Pac system isnt much better organized currently then the 1 in the sw carribean right now. The E-Pac system has also pressures near 1007mb. I do agree that the upper trough is there but is weakning as a ridge is building over the western and sw carribean. The main thing is the NHC feels ( friend source in there) feels it will be onshore tonight so it wont have time to develop more. Also said if it stays offshore it could be a threat in the NW carribean. Guess we will see.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:27 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I really don't see the circulation at the surface there, Scott. I'm looking at surface observations -- of which there aren't many down there -- and it is very inconclusive at best. Winds since 1400 UTC have been generally out of the east at the surface across Costa Rica and Panama, with one station reporting southerly winds in Panama last hour...but another right by it still reporting easterly winds. Pressures are generally low down there, but it's largely an upper-level based feature with a very weak signature, at best, at the surface. I'd expect north winds in Costa and west in Panama, which we're just not seeing.

The visible satellite imagery shows a mid-level circulation pretty clearly near 13N/82W, but the low cloud motions don't suggest a low-level circulation yet. A lot of it again is forced by divergent upper level flow from the upper low near 15N/86W, and given the outflow boundaries coming out of the convection on the north side of the feature (and diminishing appearance on WV/IR imagery), I think this one's on the downswing -- for now, at least. You can see these convective features help spin-up mid- and low-level circulations, which might occur here...but I don't think it's there just yet.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:29 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Hi Brad,

My mistake -- I had seen the earlier reports and thought they were in the area previously and were flying out, but it is in fact the other way around. They are getting near there -- 64W as of the last report -- but I'm kinda surprised they didn't have the plane down in the Virgin Islands in advance to prepare for the flight. In any case, thanks for the heads-up -- I've gone back and edited the old post.

-Clark

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:31 PM

Re: (ex)TD-10 and 13N 82W?

Eyeballing it, it looks like EX TD-10 center is around 59W and 18N, You can see things a little better with the Ramdis Visible. It's still not a happy storm, and It looks like it's being hit by shear from different directions over different parts of the storm.

-Mark

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:33 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Yeah, flying from so far away seemed a bit odd, and sending so many reports back when the plane is still so far away seemed unusual to me, but I may just not be remembering previous recon missions in which the latter was done. Is that unusual, or am I just not remembering correctly?

Regardless, as you said, the plane is getting close and we will soon have some helpful data.

(And as always, thanks for responding so quickly, thoroughly, and knowledgeably to questions.)

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 05:49 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I still dont think there is anything with old TD10. I dont expect recon will find a circulation. Now once it gets wnw towards the bahamas it could find a better environment to develop but right now I wouldnt give my 2 cents on it.

There is the midlevel-upper low near 16N and 82W but the LLC would be near 11.8N and 81W.
There is a circulation embetted in the sw carribean system. I guess we just see 2 different things. There is a nw wind in Puerto Belo , Pan and also a N wind offshore near Ise de Maiz, Nicaragua. Vis sat supports it also.
Anyways 1007mb pressure and better defined then the old TD 10 right now, just they expect it to move onshore tonight.
Im out, Ill post again later tonight.
scottsvb

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 06:02 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I've heard about Td 10 and the SW carrib but what about the central carrib it looks perrty good to I just wandering if there is anything on that one.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 06:09 PM

Re: Back To Life?

What to make of old TD10? Well, there is at least a mid-level circulation near 18.5N-59W. It may reform another LLC there. At present, it's difficult to tell if a LLC exists. The environment does appear to be getting better, however, as it looks like an anticyclone is starting to build over the system and shear lessens. If its not classified this pm by NHC, then with the improving environment, perhaps tomorrow. I know we've been saying that the last several days so....

If something does develop, the numerical models seem to be aiming for the Fl Straits or Southern Peninsula in the next 4-5 days. I'm wondering now if the system would be too far south to be affected by the east coast trough or beats the trough to the GOM before coming under its influence. Of course, this presumes that it develops which is a big IF now.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 06:15 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Latest Scatt just in 18/1745 UTC 18.7N 59.1W TOO WEAK 10
was 1.0/10 this AM be interseting to see what recon finds, also seem to have moved N some.

Dave

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 06:19 PM

Re: Back To Life?

For anyone interested in the recon reports who isn't checking them, the latest (at 1803 - 203 pm EDT) was from 18.4/61.2, flight level winds 170 degrees at 12 kt, pressure 1015 mb. Still a ways from the estimated center, but getting close to where there should be a west wind if there's a closed low (although if there's a circulation at all, the west wind will only be very close to the LLC because it is small & weak).

Here's the report:

000
URNT11 KNHC 181803
97779 17594 50184 61200 03000 17012 24232 /0015
41510
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 19

Beach

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 06:21 PM

I Noticed...

That JB no longer has his Tropical Outlook available:
http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html

For the last few days now, does anyone know why?

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 06:23 PM

Re: Back To Life?

How close is that to the estimated center?

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 06:28 PM

Re: I Noticed...

Hmmmm, I watched it this AM!! Don't know why it's not there now!!! He talked about 10 making it through and possibly being "a problem". Also, went into the next wave that's to come off Africa in a couple days.

Also, like Hank, thought it should have been a TD the whole time.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 06:30 PM

Re: I Noticed...

I believe with all the harassment he has been recieving lately with his predictions, he may have went on a sabatical. Just a weather guess!!!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 06:44 PM

2 more recon reports

19.0/60.3: wind 140 degrees, 22 kt (at flight level, of course)
19.5/59.7: wind 140 degrees, 22 kt

Now it does look like they're having trouble finding a center. Those 2 recon reports in full:

URNT11 KNHC 181819
97779 18174 50190 60300 03000 14022 24232 /0016
41020
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 20

URNT11 KNHC 181831
97779 18304 50195 59700 03000 14022 24232 /0016
41420
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 21

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 07:16 PM

Re: 2 more recon reports

No vortex message yet, and looking unlikely they'll find a closed circulation.

I can't find observation 22, but here's 23 (summary: 17.9/59.7; wind 120 degrees, 18 kt; pressure 1016 mb):

URNT11 KNHC 181909
97779 19004 50179 59700 03000 12018 24232 /0016
41315
82426 82515
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 23

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 07:21 PM

Re: 2 more recon reports

I will go out on the limb and say that old#10 is no more. Like Irene, 10 has endured way too much shear for it to gather strength at this point, which it should have by now if it was going to. Pressure is seen rising which is a tell tale sign of nothing there. So the RECON, which was relunctly held back for this reason, should go out and investigate the SW Carib for activity which is growing stronger of the two entities.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 07:34 PM

Training flight?

Just noticed this observation while looking through the ex-TD10 recon reports.

Anyone know what this data is from - a training flight? Another flight heading out to former TD10 (which would seem odd)? A flight heading down to the Carib. that isn't listed in the day's flight plan?

I suspect a training flight, but don't know enough about the codes to be certain:

URNT10 KNHC 181920
97779 19074 50295 83100 70100 99005 66751 /5765
81381 83835
RMK AF308 WXWXA 05081817308 OB 01

(User)

Thu Aug 18 2005 07:37 PM

x td 10

couldn't tell what was going on this morning, but the cloud debris has sheared away some revealing the situation. the surface center started poking out around midday and is now well ahead of the scattered convective area/mid level circulation.. up near 19.5/62.5. it may be just barely closed, but is probably open. this piece is currently trying to run the shear zone... highly uncertain it will make it. the mid level vortmax has slowed down and is trudging wnw back at 18/59.5... the system may try to redevelop on either of these features or completely lose its definition from here. it is probably finally dead, though... unless the convection returns in some strong bursts this evening.
HF 1933z18august

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 07:46 PM

Re: x td 10

Wow--good eyes, HF. Looking at the visible loop, I can see the feature (probable former LLC) that is now at 19.5/62.5. Looks like it might have been closed a couple of hours ago, but appears to have completely dissipated/opened up since then.

If that was the LLC - and looking at that loop and focusing on that area, I suspect you're right it was - I can't imagine that feature will regenerate. Maybe something will re-develop back where you see the MLC, but that feature ahead looks about as dead as they come.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 07:50 PM

Re: x td 10

Hank,

Just curious, why do you report in "Zulu" time at the end of your posts?
because i can. -HF

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 18 2005 08:01 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Scott, I just don't see it there. The convection has gone kaput, leaving a mid-level vortex there near 13.5N/82W, with no real signs of anything down at the surface. Whatever turning that was there at the mid-levels further south closer to 10N is gone now, leaving behind no signs of a surface low. The surface obs, if anything, suggest something inland over western Panama. Winds along the coast in Costa Rica have been out of the ENE today, while winds in central Panama have gradually come around to the SE from the east earlier today. I'm looking at obs over the course of 5 hours now, to go with those earlier today. That would suggest any turning is over the western part of Panama, if at all, and given wind speeds of generally 5-8mph that I'm seeing, is very weak. Pressure are low, granted, but there doesn't appear to be any corresponding surface circulation. The mid-level vortex (that turning on the visible...take note of the mid-level cloud motions versus the spotty, duller low-level cloud motions) can help spin-up one in time, now that the convection has died out, but it's just not there yet. Just how I see it...

Hawkeyewx

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Aug 18 2005 08:06 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Clark, I also do not see evidence at this time of any surface circulation in the sw Caribbean. There is a lot of mid and upper level cloud debris which is making it difficult to see the surface flow, but as best as I can tell there is nothing significant going on at the surface.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 08:48 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I was checking what JB had to say about TD10 and he really seems to think it will be something in a few days. He says it will "bust" through the shear zone and the ridge and head towards the Bahamas and possibly the US. Other sites i checked haven't totally written the storm off, but they don't seem to be as concerned as JB and that includes the NHC. Even the wunderground met's blog talks about the storm intensifying in a day or two and heading towards the Bahamas. Either JB is right or the NHC doesn't want to jump the gun. You guys have stated that this afternoon TD10 didn't look too good; wunderground said differently....i'll stick with your opinions and the NHC......thanks for the great information!

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 08:59 PM

Re: x td 10

Everybody take a look at this color enhanced 85ghz wind image. This is a Poes image.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-sswd-loop.html

Then read this for interpreting 85ghz images
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/training-bin/training.cgi

XTD10 is probably doomed but the energy at the surface just seems to persist.I know you all are fairly bashful but feel free to comment.

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 09:07 PM

Re: Back To Life?

In JB's defense, TD 10 looked much better this a.m. when he did his video. He may be having a rough spell but I think 10 fooled many others too.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 18 2005 09:07 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I don't doubt that the energy with ex-TD 10 will get towards the Bahamas, as JB says. He figured the disturbance would be amplified today; instead, it's weakened through the day. However, watching his video, he's using very weak signatures from the models to try to send the storm to near 75-80W. The only way the system threatens Florida in the current & forecast regime is if it remains a very weak entity...TD or less. Any development of the system -- not nearly as likely now as before -- and it heads off towards open water under deeper layer steering flow from an approaching trough and weakness along the coastline as well as the natural northward tendency of larger storms. Looking at the steering flow, you can make a case for it getting to Florida -- just not as anything significant, and that's where the whole "using JB with caution" caveat that Steve mentioned yesterday comes into play. As with any guidance, including models or people (myself included), use with caution.

More significant would be the SW Caribbean feature for the western Gulf or any potential development alnog the end of an unusually strong frontal boundary predicted to head for the northern Gulf over the weekend, though the latter probably isn't likely and the former still needs some time. Africa's about to give us some waves, but I'm not sure I buy the wave at 5N/20E (not W) that JB is looking at affecting the Lesser Antilles at the end of next week. It might well develop, but anything that does develop is going to tend to miss the islands to the north.

We shall see...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 18 2005 10:46 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I dunno, last pix as the sun is fading show both areas of 10L firing convection. The llc racing toward the WNW is firing convection right near the center, and the mid-level center shows turning and looks like its trying to organize, but moving quite slowly. I still think something will come of all this. Bizarre.

(User)

Thu Aug 18 2005 10:57 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Hey gang, Looks to me like exTD10 may be giving it the college try again. I don't know if you caught the last few visible images of not, but looking at the NASA GHCC site ( http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ ) it looks to me that a band was starting to form to the north, wrapping to the east, and one to the south, wreapping to the west. I'm not looking at that mid level area that got left behind earlier today, but that area around 20N, 62.5W...
Any thoughts???

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 18 2005 11:11 PM

Re: Back To Life?

I see former TD10 getting convection to its SW. This seems (again) that the shear is letting up.

I wonder if the flare-up will survive the night. Tomorrow may bring an additional chapter to the long saga of the once (and possibly future) TD10 as it advances upon less shear and warmer waters..

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 11:27 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Did Recon ever send back a Vortex message from former td 10?

Nope -- they did not find a low-level center with the disturbance, thus no vortex message. The NHC mentioned that it had degenerated into a tropical wave in the 5:30p TWO. --Clark

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 11:33 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Now what are we spose to track since there is no tropical systems invest disturbances or anything. Is there anything else going on in the basin?

(User)

Thu Aug 18 2005 11:36 PM

land of the dead

you guys have more or less covered xtd 10. the low level signature may still be closed just above the sfc.. sw of the 20/63 feature at puerto rico sfc obs show calm or very light east winds. still has another half day to day's worth of travel to break the shear zone... whatever vorticity imprint on the atmosphere is left when it arrives near 70w in a day or so... well, we'll see. i'm not convinced there's enough of a weakness to turn the energy/system up beyond that point. given that there's no system right now and it may not redevelop, it's just speculation.
west caribbean disturbed weather should propagate wnw. i don't think anything will develop for another day or so... maybe when that shear axis has broken down more. weak disturbance hanging near the carolina coastline progged by some models to move ene or just sit around. none showing it doing much. the waves off africa have been pretty much puffing out as they come off. itcz is sort of depressed. not much else worth noting.
oh yeah, irene finally went out. it had a good two week run (august 4-18).
HF 2336z18august

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Aug 18 2005 11:36 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Quote:

Now what are we spose to track since there is no tropical systems invest disturbances or anything. Is there anything else going on in the basin?

There are waves.

There is "something might happen here."

There is pure imagination.

Not sure which is more accurate.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 18 2005 11:48 PM

Re: Back To Life?

Does this the satilite image on the site bellow show the wave everyone t(hat big convection area on Africa) is talking about.

lets try for 8th grade quality grammar/spelling, minimum. can barely understand you. -HF

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 12:01 AM

Re: land of the dead

Hank:

Glad you said something it was becoming a Wishcasting.

Dave

(User)

Fri Aug 19 2005 12:36 AM

Re: land of the dead

Yes, It probably would take some time, but the signature to the south and north of X-10 is looking better. It does seem to be trying to pull another "like last night stunt". However, it is small and small enough that it would not influence wind conditions in Puerto Rico. That seems a bit far away based on what I'm seeing in the shortwave images.
Link to shortwave loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
May never develop, but I don't think this thing is done in trying to make a go of it yet.
Quick P.S.: Hope noone thinks I'm referring to the debris clouds that are spinning to the SE of the system. Also, Would like to admit that I feel that the system would have a better chance if there wasn't so much energy being used by the systems around it. Admittadly, the Satellite imagery is pretty busy with disorganized t-storms in the vacinity of x-10.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Aug 19 2005 12:49 AM

Dead

The system previously referred to as XTD 10. Should run into an area of Southwesterly shear at 19.3N/ 64.2 W.
Per RECON reports from this afternoon.
The SW winds extend from that point bcak toward 20.4/ 68.5. So that should set up a good wall to 'block' the wave. Or divert it.

Area of persistant convection south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola is still hanging on.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 12:52 AM

Re: land of the dead

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 8:05 PM 08/18/2005

Did you take the time to read it.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Aug 19 2005 12:55 AM

TWD

Dave, yes I did and was preparing to post a portion of it here. Against my better judgement, of course.
Feeding frenzy will probably occur. But here goes.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2005 (edited~danielw)
CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BROAD LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS COULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A SURGE IN MOISTURE ALONG 72W... POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF TROPICAL GENESIS IN THE W CARIBBEAN. UPPER WINDS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IT IS AN AREA TO BE WATCHED AT THE LEAST.
bold emphasis added~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/182332.shtml?

**Note-A little over a week ago. The GFS was indicating a low intensity tropical system in the SE GOM on Aug 20th.
That was an extreme long range forecast...but based on TPC's comments it Is an area to watch.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 01:03 AM

Re: TWD

Daniel, that was not directed at you it was to Dem05, where it has XXX 10 as a Wave now, plus The Navy has drop it all together.

Dave

Thanks, Captain. I just played out your post. Pure coincidence.~danielw

(Weather Master)

Fri Aug 19 2005 01:31 AM

Re: TWD

yawn.There was a strong storm over my house tonight lots of winds and heavy rain.Loads of Lightning.That probily has more chance of making something then TD 10 of old does

Ralph...I'll have to agree with you on that~danielw

(User)

Fri Aug 19 2005 01:41 AM

Re: TWD

Hey there,
No I hadn't seen the Discussion until now. But I'm glad you reminded me to look. "Killed" was an interesting word. I had edited my post a few minutes before yours hit, so I don't know if you had seen that update, but it's back there. Admittadly, it is sometimes harder to express words over forums than to speak orally...My comments were geared more to the tone that the system looks better again in the evening, but the overall picture looks complicated for it to ever have a shot. However, I've marvelled the tenacity of systems like Franklin, Harvey, and Irene this year, so I just couldn't rule out that chance for redevelopment. Either way, I think your post and the one from our friend Daniel are good stuff folks! It's nice to see everyone discussing the facts available.

(Weather Master)

Fri Aug 19 2005 01:49 AM

Re: TWD

A post that was not sent to the graveyard.I think im going to cry

.

BTW this has got to be the most humid summer i can remember here in Florida,it is down right Bad,even after rain.

I hope that means the storms also will stay away.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:01 AM

Re: TWD

It has been pretty bad Ralph. We've had some big storms. Also, the past few days (at least in my part of FL) our showers have come at night, not in the afternoon like normal, so the rain comes too late to cool things off

which is the best part of Florida's daily t-storms. Today at 3:00 I went out to my car (which had been sitting in the sun for two hours. Temperature in the car read 115 degrees (I know that's not the actual temperature, but I felt sorry for anyone who has to work outside... and my car

). After 30 mins of driving around it still read 105. I have no idea what the actual temp was, somewhere in the 90s I assume. Today it was literally (and I mean this literally, not in the figurative sense) hotter than hell.

Broke into a sweat walking to the mailbox.

MichaelA

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:07 AM

Re: TWD

Quote:

Today it was literally (and I mean this literally, not in the figurative sense) hotter than hell.

I work outside. I can confirm that.

(Weather Master)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:18 AM

Re: TWD

well sad to say i live on the coast below tampa and i can't remember a summer like this.I know when we get the afternoon storms like Florida use to be that ment the ridge would protect us from storms in the Gulf.Last year we got the storms in Florida because the ridge was not in its normal spot and storms could not turn like the last few have done.

But this 85 temp when i wake up and sweat already before i even go out the door is bad.I remember a few years ago talking about how 71 at midnight was bad.Heck i would take that now.

If a storm got over the gulf area now i hate to say but those waters are so warm we would be in trouble.

Anyone ever read this http://weathercenter.com/forecast/discussion.htm

They post a lot of good stuff about our local weather and why and what.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:21 AM

Re: TWD

Speaking of heat and storms......we had some rain early this evening around 7pm. Other than that most of the storms have been occuring during the night. This morning around 2am we had a pretty good storm blow through. Nothing too bad, but enough to make the power go off and on (enough to screw up the clocks). As for the afternoon storms - been pretty scarce. Mostly at night, like after 9pm. I check the radar when it happens and it's usually isolated to this area and other spots south of here.

(Weather Master)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:25 AM

Re: TWD

when we had that strom a few nights ago it knocked out the power here for a few Hrs as there was so much lightning it hit a main line.These late night sotrms do nothing for the temps here at all.

=======================================

Can't get much worse then this.Watching the Sox's play on Tv
And posting to a Sox's fan in my own county.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:29 AM

Re: TWD

at least we all have power now so we can run the a/c. after charley last year I spent one of the most unbearable weeks of my life w/ no air, and Florida's August temps. Unfortunately that week was one that was spent mostly outside, as there was storm damage to clear. Then, at night, it was nearly impossible to shower because there was no hot water (sounds like it should be heaven when you're hot... trust me... it's not). shaving with cold water isn't dandy either. I guess if I can look on the bright side with these late showers and high daytime temps, it's that I have a/c to cool off in. (and the people around me should be glad I have a shower to wash off in!

)

btw, thanks for the site Ralph, it's an interesting read.

(User)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:30 AM

Re: TWD

xtd 10 remnant.. the vortmax is around 20/64 now. it'll be through the shear zone tomorrow afternoon. latest TWO says no development expected tomorrow, so the nhc is calling it over. i'm going to reserve that call until it goes away completely.
sw/w caribbean has had increasingly more ridging and diffluence-aided convection over the last couple of days. the convective bursts near 70w have stunted the fast low level jet some; setting up a stagnant/convergent environment further west. the mcc east of nicaragua that scott was interested in has an odd thunderstorm blowing on its old core, just drifting. if the trends in the area persist, a vortmax will eventually start feeding back and try to develop. close in to central america it would be running over land.. a tad to the east it might stay over water and move nw/wnw. hard to predict where a low will try to form.. probably closer to central america.
by the way, i have an order for everybody. that's right an ORDER. go look at what i posted a few mins ago on the everything & nothing forum. it's new technology... some of you probably won't be able to figure out how to use it, but for those of you who can... you're going to like it a lot.
HF 0230z19august

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:39 AM

Re: TWD

We lost power for about 2 seconds, in fact, that usually happens when these little storms come through. Last year during all them storms; we never lost power once....weird how a little thunderstorm comes through and the power goes off and on a few times and sometimes off for a while, but when something tropical gets close - we never lose power and it never goes off and on....strange.

(User)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:43 AM

Re: TWD

Here in Tallahassee, it is always hot and still, but the humidity has seeemed higher here this year too. Outside of this...When storms do develop, there seems to have been more cloud to ground lightning in Tallahassee than normal this year too. I wonder if Clark could comment on this. I lived in Charlotte County til 8 years ago and always noticed there just wasn't as much of that kind of lightning up here since I moved. Either way, I feel that humidity and lightning will have little effect on the course of '05 hurricanes. This state has just been fairly wet for the last 12 months. Lots of evaporation...
P.S. Some may want to post bounty on me for saying this, but X-10 is still trying to offer it's typical evening stunt. Development or not, it just might be interesting to watch till something gobbles it up. Maybe something can be learned from that.

jbmusic

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Aug 19 2005 03:02 AM

Re: TWD

Where in Manatee are you. I live on the east side, we didn't have much rain heard thunder in the distance. Lights never even flickered. But have to admit the afternoon thunderstorms have been the worst I have ever seen and I have lived here for 40yrs

(Weather Master)

Fri Aug 19 2005 03:18 AM

Re: TWD

Too many in Manatee county on this site.Your not a Sox's fan too are you? not sure i could take 2 of you on this site from the same city as me

Im on the west side of the same city as you.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 03:27 AM

Re: TWD

I used to have family that lived off 9th st between cortez and 53rd, I believe. I love the Sarasota/Bradenton area. very pretty over there. Since I've lived in FL (7 yrs now) property values have really shot up over there. More than most places. (and it's gotten a lot more crowded). I can't imagine the return folks who bought a lot in Lkwood Ranch back when it was just starting are getting now. Incredible.

this post and the ones before it: these are PM topics. talking about where you live with no weather relevance doesn't belong on the main board... even if it is interesting. keep it on another forum, PM, or embed it with on-topic material and it's ok. -HF

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 03:42 AM

Re: TWD

Hey guys/gals, hate to say this, but old 10 is getting back some form. Notice the convective outer band where convection is breaking out to the west and SW ahead of it? Some deeper convection near the "center" as well. Think this one may make one more run at trying to grow up. Shear is weakening now. Cheers!!

(Weather Master)

Fri Aug 19 2005 04:04 AM

Re: TWD

thanks for the post but i just dont see it but that is your opinion but i dont see it.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Aug 19 2005 04:09 AM

Re: TWD

Tallahassee has seen it's share of cloud-to-ground lightning this year...don't know if it's abnormal, though, as this part of the world ranks up there pretty highly globally in terms of c-g & overall lightning strikes. Lightning strikes are often driven by charge separation and ice content and I don't have any readily available way to judge either, unfortunately. Perhaps someone around here will do a study on it someday with the data...

The SW Carib vort max is perking up again over the past few hours. Now it's got it's shot for development (in the short-term; still long long-term is a better bet), trying to look like a classic case of tropical cyclogenesis: convective blowup spins-up a mid-level center, only to have the convection die out for some period of time. Then, given a moister environment due to the previous convection and a mid-level circulation to focus the heating about, convection rebuilds. The next step is for the low-level circulation to spin-up as a response to this new convective burst and the strengthening mid-level feature...whether that happens or not remains to be seen. It's pretty close to land, though; given it's size and location, the upper-low to the NW isn't going to be too unfavorable. We've seen two storms spin up like this so far this season, though both in the Gulf. Will this make 3? As Scott has said for the past few days, it's got a shot... Still do think the Gulf area is going to be better for this to get going in a couple more days, though only time will tell on that account.

Ex-TD 10 is firing convection again and has largely been discussed by HF & others this evening, so I'll pass there. The convection isn't all that organized and the low-level center that had been there for days is gone. It's a little behind the aforementioned wave in the process, but still has a shot. Less than 50/50 now, probably 33/67 if anything (favoring not developing). If all of this pans out like it might, Scott will have nailed it several days out...not bad at all.

African wave feature is ~2 days away now...models aren't as bullish on it immediately, but still take something across the basin (to varying degrees of intensity). They're trending further north with it, likely leading to any quick-developing storm just spinning fish and not getting far to the west. Watch it over the weekend...might be something then.

EPac wave near 90-95W keeps going in cycles...it's what happens when features like the SW Carib. wave don't take that next leap and maintain themselves over time. Still some support for development and still favorable conditions for it to do so, but think only one or the other of it and the SW Carib. feature will get going, at least in the short-term.

Have a good night, everyone.

(User)

Fri Aug 19 2005 04:25 AM

Re: TWD

well.. for the sw carib thing.. that's slow brew stuff. it's on enough models to merit attention, but they're all giving different versions.
if x10 redevelops scott did get the redevelopment window right (though it'd been arguably classifiable prior to thursday). now all he needs is a straight north track for anything that develops and it's score two. my take is further west... bahamas area. going for the split. it looks a lot better tonight... maybe if that convection can hang around another 12hrs or so.
the african waves have been shearing off recently... and in very dry environs. the synoptic environment near west africa looks to have improved slightly. better bet that part of the basin is ready to produce when a wave comes off and doesn't evaporate in 12-24 hrs.
HF 0425z19august

(User)

Fri Aug 19 2005 04:47 AM

Re: TWD

Something I think I've noticed with X10. As it got better looking earlier tonight, I was thinking that's interesting, but that trough to the wnw is gonna hurt it again. The water vapor seems to she that trough filling and/or pulling out.
WV Floater loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Also, I love shortwave sat at night. Watching it I thought I saw a band to the south, wrapping around to the west, then northward...Then I thought I saw a second one form closer...They are there now and there might be a third one forming even closer now.
Shortwave link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
Maybe it's a fighter...Remeber how quickly Franklin changed his look when he went from wave to TD in this neighborhood. On the other hand, it could be fooling us again, but I'm starting to question that myself.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Fri Aug 19 2005 08:00 AM

Re: TWD

We had Charlie, Jean and Frances all about 3 weeks apart last year. These fantastic numbers of named storms are going to have to get on the ball or the year's forecast will kind of bust. But it seems that with the inflation of gas prices, taxes added to the central Florida counties, and the real estate insurances through the roof or non existent, that the next "big" one could finish us all off here in Central Florida in the financial sectors. Everyone is feeling the squeeze. The dry environment that keeps melting those convective waves may influence those numbers or extend the Tropical season into January. I can not imagine how much longer these high heat days will last. They are reminiscent of 1998, when Florida had a severe fire season.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Aug 19 2005 08:40 AM

00Z Friday Models

Checking the 19/ 00Z, tropical cyclone genesis models.
GFS brings the remnants of XTD 10 into the FL Peninsula. Very low vorticity
CMC follows suit with XTD 10. Develops wave off of Africa, and brings it to 20N/ 40W.
NOGAPS is in agreement with GFS and CMC as above. But has the African wave passing South of the Cape Verde Isles.

The 18/12Z MM5FSU model takes the remnants of XTD 10 into the Atlantic between Bermuda and the East Coast. Also depicting the African wave, in the same general area as the newer models.
**Note-None of the above models develops XTD 10. A vorticity signature is all that they are showing.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 10:25 AM

Re: 00Z Friday Models

Nobody seems to want to drop XTD 10, Here is my take on XTD 10, This is a MLC enbedded in the wave, more I think about XTD 10 is was never a TD only look to be one this would explain the ups and downs for the last week.
Dave

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Aug 19 2005 12:16 PM

Re: 00Z Friday Models

I'm getting bored of TD10 wave. Can't wait till the cape verd season starts going. The water wapor loops shows more moisture out in the Atlantic. A good sign of things to come. I think when it pops it will make June and July seem like a puppy. Be safe and prepared this year.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 12:28 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Quote:

Nobody seems to want to drop XTD 10, Here is my take on XTD 10, This is a MLC enbedded in the wave, more I think about XTD 10 is was never a TD only look to be one this would explain the ups and downs for the last week.
Dave

Dave, I have to respectfully disagree with you about old TD10. There was clearly a LLC intact for 2-3 days until about 24 hours ago. My take was that it was always a TD until yesterday. What possibly led to the demise of the LLC was the easterly surge of dry air that caught up to the system & disrupted the circulation. Overnight & this am another impressive burst of convection with the MLC near 19.5N-64W. Will it develop? Probably less than 50% chance but who knows. The latest 06z GFS brings the wave into the peninsula early-to-mid next week. We could use the rain on the west coast of FL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Aug 19 2005 12:36 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

After looking at the 1145z vis sat, I see what looks to be 2 small areas of convection. I realize that both have not persisted for a long period of time but my question is could 1 of these 2 areas get going from what used to be #10 even though there was no decernable closed area from recon yesterday? Also noticed an area of convection off t he coast of Ga. Does anyone no what to make of that or will it just die off too? J.C.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Aug 19 2005 12:43 PM

Wishcasting

..............I'm getting bored of TD10 wave. Can't wait till the cape verd season starts going. The water wapor loops shows more moisture out in the Atlantic. A good sign of things to come. I think when it pops it will make June and July seem like a puppy. Be safe and prepared this year. ...............

Looney-Bored with a TD that never developed? "A GOOD SIGN" of more hurricane activity? I take it you dont own property in Florida. Looney, perfect name....
on that token, is it loony to own property in florida or loony to expect hurricanes to leave it alone? by the way, keep the personal comments like this in PM form, or add some on-topic thoughts that aren't merely conversational or dramatic. -HF

(Weather Guru)

Fri Aug 19 2005 01:29 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

I'm mmmeeellllttiiinnnggg! I certainly do not want ANY hurricanes/TD/TS's this year. I just want some RAIN! As my screen name aptly suggests, I've lived in FL since the day I came into this world. I lived in Cent.FL for 17 yrs. & here in Deerfield Beach (extreme NE Broward Co. ) for the last 18 yrs. I cannot recall a more humid, hot and stagnant August. Not a single leaf is fluttering. You'd think that being right here on the beach there'd at least be some sort of sea breeze...nothing! I'd settle for a puff right now. The air is so still and thick with humidity. I don't even remember the last time it's rained here. Seriously, I think it was late July. That wave just N of PR...they're saying on the news here that it will hopefully bring us at least the "chance" for rain come Sunday/Monday. Only a 30% chance, but we'll take it. Good thing for all concerned that there's nothing coming down the pike now. Could you imagine no power-A/C now?? YIKES!

I'm off - to do a rain dance or something....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Aug 19 2005 01:44 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

In the Atlantic, off the FL/GA border, there looks to be some sort of little spin with convection (looking at an IR satellite loop... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html) Any chance of this developing?

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:02 PM

Re: 00Z Friday Models

Daniel,

How about starting a new thread!!!!

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:05 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Your post contains a bad link. Please re-submit.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:15 PM

Re: 00Z Friday Models

DanielW and/or Clark;

What are your thoughts on this:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15
KT. BROAD ROTATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE WITH LOWER PRESSURES
SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE WAVE COULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER NOW
THAT IT IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ENHANCING W WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ.

Note the LAT's given: S of 22N w/ a "suggested" presence of a LLC near 13N ??? That's an awfully big stretch?

(Weather Master)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:15 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Start a new thread? what storm would that be for? only thing could be tropical discussion and that is what we are doing now

hopefully a fish will develope so we have a storm going nowhere to talk about.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:20 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Ralph,

What I was impying is that #10 is no longer yet we continue to post on soemthing that is not there anymore, and suggested a new thread for future developements in the Atlantic.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:22 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

I think this is what Gainesville was trying to show everyone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

And, would someone please look at this and let me know what they think?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005081900&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=084hr

(Weather Guru)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:25 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Force -

Try this: I test sent to myself & it worked.

NOAA

Johnathan

(Registered User)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:31 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Quote:

Quote:

Nobody seems to want to drop XTD 10, Here is my take on XTD 10, This is a MLC enbedded in the wave, more I think about XTD 10 is was never a TD only look to be one this would explain the ups and downs for the last week.
Dave

Dave, I have to respectfully disagree with you about old TD10. There was clearly a LLC intact for 2-3 days until about 24 hours ago. My take was that it was always a TD until yesterday. What possibly led to the demise of the LLC was the easterly surge of dry air that caught up to the system & disrupted the circulation. Overnight & this am another impressive burst of convection with the MLC near 19.5N-64W. Will it develop? Probably less than 50% chance but who knows. The latest 06z GFS brings the wave into the peninsula early-to-mid next week. We could use the rain on the west coast of FL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Agreed...the rain has been absent this year on the coast near me. Most activity has been inland.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:31 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

I believe that is what all the models and JB were hinting at a "BIG" low coming off Africa which could be our next storm, perhaps right away.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:31 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Quote:

And, would someone please look at this and let me know what they think?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005081900&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=084hr

Would it be correct to assume that you are refering to the "system" shown just NW of the Cape Verde Islands?

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:34 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Are you talking about the develpement at 20N/20W?

(Weather Guru)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:35 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Good, I assumed correct...you know what they say about assuming

Yeah, the weather related entities are noticing it also...see my post earlier (I think it's on the previous page)

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:38 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

So with that being said and agreed upon, the pressure is falling in that area, and could have ourselves a TD if not a Storm. Will have to wait and see what the NHC puts out.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:39 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Actually I was looking at the little blob approaching south Florida.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:44 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Did you know that this plot is for 84HRS, and it hints of a possible low pressure area in that vincinity at the specified time period. Now it could be old #10, but don't think so considering there was no LLC when the RECON was out there yesterday. So, we have to assume that the models are hinting just the opposite.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:49 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Ah! Gottcha...my guess...my you it's not a "educated" one either ,is that says 84hrs. out..which would mean late sunday early monday...maybe it's the "wave" like remnants of XTD 10 that JB thinks will approach the Bahamas in that time frame? Like I said, just a guess.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:50 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Aug 19 2005 02:54 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Someone posted earlier that they saw something on the GFS model for mid next week. I could't see it - all I found was the model in the link I posted earlier.
Could be I didn't look in the correct time frame. I was just hoping for the rain.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 03:10 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Are you wishing for rain, be careful what you wish for. Take a look at this SAT.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Aug 19 2005 03:11 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Aug 19 2005 03:25 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

Our local mets said that there would be a front approaching Florida this weekend. I was thinking that could be weather in front of the front.
(there I go thinking again) Good chance I am completely wrong.

D3m3NT3DVoRT3X

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Aug 19 2005 03:28 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

if u are talking about the storms of the coast of the fl ga border those are assioated with a low .. that is moving east away from any interests i believe

my 2 cents =p

(Weather Guru)

Fri Aug 19 2005 03:52 PM

Re: Tropical Wave north of PR

I'm Suprised navy doesnt have a invest of for the wave near 13n 30w after what the NHC Said-

"E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD ROTATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE WITH LOWER PRESSURES SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE WAVE COULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER NOW THAT IT IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ENHANCING W WINDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ."

If it has a LLC then I would say is should soon become a TD. What do the met/mod have to say About this one?

notice the TWD doesn't say closed circulation. if you look at the satelite, there is a puff of cloud debris near the turning in the atmosphere and all the convection is strung to the south along the itcz. this thing is nowhere near developing... maybe as the wave energy gets further west/into a moister environment it will perk back up.. not much in the way of modeling to suggest that, though. -HF

(User)

Fri Aug 19 2005 04:41 PM

dead horse (well-beaten)

quick check of the basin reveals the first day since august 1 without a tropical system active somewhere in the basin.
xtd 10 still has a surface trough associated with it near 21.5/67.5, moving wnw. convection is spotty.. the convective complex overnight broke down leaving a skeletal mlc back near 20/63. the surface feature is weak but still persisting... it aint over til it's completely over.
the impressive convection in the caribbean the other day isn't looking so sharp today. convection that was firing near an old mlc off the honduras/nicaragua border is scant, and the mlc has no apparent surface reflection in low cloud vectors. nothing there today.
stuff off the ga/sc coast is along a wind-shift line, nothing of consequence. globals still showing a system coming off africa this weekend, but getting less juiced over it.
very surprised that the basin is as quiet as it is, based on the pattern we had evolving early in august. there's a weak mjo-enhancement factor, but the upper lows are persisting in the basin, soi is staying neutral/weak negative, and eastpac development continues though the atlantic is only responding weakly. the mid latitude weather pattern is transitioning towards an early fall one... tropics seem to be in limbo.
HF 1641z19august

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Aug 19 2005 04:48 PM

Re: Wishcasting

Hey HW. Don't tell me what to post. I'm here cause I like Hurricanes. You got a problem with it e-mail me:Lonny307@aol.com

lonny you ought to register so you can send stuff like this by PM. we don't tattoo a number on your arm or anything, just allows use of PM pretty much. -HF