(Weather Analyst)

Mon Aug 22 2005 11:10 AM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

NRL now officially has the wave near the Bay of Campeche as 98L.

The sattelite IR presentation of the system also looks impressive for a wave, and with the an air force reserve reconisance aircraft expected to investigate it today, clearly NHC is concerned about its development.

-------------

In reference to the wave south of Florida, while I realize that the CMC tends to over-strengthen systems in the gulf, it still makes you worry about what that wave is going to do!
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

In comparison the Nogaps isn't really picking up on that wave and the GFS is sending it into Florida's east coast before it has a chance to strengthen. I think its track will have great influence on what happens to it.

-----------

The first GFDL run on 97L is out...and it dissipates the wave in about 24 hours. I find that highly suspect since almost every other model strengthens the wave, albiet slowly. CMC is still showing a strong system taking a northerly curvature while NOGAPS is keeping it weaker and more westerly.

--RC

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 22 2005 11:36 AM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

See that Random? And you said you didn't see anything down there on Saturday

. I didn't either except to say it was something I was watching. When they have the look or the color [tm - Bobbi], you gotta consider them in this type of season where the bulk of the SSTA's in the Atlantic Basin are running high. As for the Canadian, it was doing basically the same thing yesterday. The 00z European doesn't make as big of a deal with it but does form something off the W Coast of FL and moves it into SC LA. Almost all of the globals that show anything show genesis and intensification near or over Florida. If it's the west coast or SW coast, the FL posters are on the wet side and should see some rainfall at a minimum. Looks like we're about to get back into tracking mode.

Tough call as to 98L on whether or not it can make it beyond a STDS (not that kind of STDS) to a depression or minimal tropical storm. What we've seen with most of the 3 storms that impacted the E coast of Mexico this year has been a strengthening/tightening mode at landfall. I woudln't be surprised if this turns out to be Jose any more than I'd be surprised if it stayed a blob of thurderstorms. As I said the other day, it's something to watch.

Should be an interesting week.

Steve

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Aug 22 2005 12:19 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

Steve: On satuday I didn't see anything

-----------------

As per the 8 am EST TWD update:

Both the Bay of Campeche and the south-of-Florida waves have no associated deep convection. However, the south-of-Florida wave has "LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING" observed.

The central-Atlantic wave is no longer mentioned on the TWD.

The east-Atlantic wave: "THE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS NOT AS INTENSE AS EARLIER" but they are still predicting cyclonic development with it. Could be it's at a diurnal weak point?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 22 2005 12:50 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

Random, can you give us some sort of present location of where the low level turning is located in the area south of FL? And if you know, give some kind of direction and speed because I don't see anything other than a cloud mass with no apparent organizatiuon to it as of 8:15am. Thanks, J.C.

D3m3NT3DVoRT3X

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Aug 22 2005 01:39 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

Of course JB was very "concerned" for the next week or so .. should have jose by today .. that area in the BOC is ramping up quick .. =)

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 01:50 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

Anything going on with this action off the Carolina cost...seems like there was some discussion about it yesterday:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

(User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 02:13 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

the rundown this morning:
new 98L will get reconned this afternoon and will probably be classified. the core of the feature has moved offshore now; it should have enough time to get organized. joe b says landfall late tomorrow near tuxpan as a tropical storm.. see no problem with that.
97L is over marginal ssts and is entraining some dry air. this should act to keep it broad and fairly weak through the next 36-48hrs. should only be minimal development in that time. after that it should slowly deepen. a recurvature corridor will be open for it if it's strong enough late in the week. if not, it'll have a shear zone/upper trough to break through like irene did a couple weeks ago.
xtd 10 is what concerns me the most this morning. the outflow pattern is shown to be very favorable around it by mid week, with the rising heights in the northeast and shortwave bypassing it to the north, low pressure is likely to develop in this area. models tracking it either just east of florida, over florida, or into the eastern gulf. i was thinking about what jb would have to say over the weekend.. this morning his ideas all panned out like i'd expected. development out of this system will be trouble, and the pattern is evolving so as to facilitate that.
the wave behind 97L is shown by most globals to keep a low trajectory.. nao is positive now and should favor zonal ridging. in the two week period that wave will likely be responsible for what we're talking about then.
HF 1413z22august

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 02:25 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

If xTD10 tracked into the Gulf and developed where do you see it heading and possibly when? And why does this one concern you?

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 02:27 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

H.F., If this thing does track to Fl do you have any idea as to when and what we may be talking about? Do you think it will be just a rain maker or is it likely to be something worse?
Thanks,

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 02:35 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

HF, The SFWMD maps show all the models going south of FL...are you looking somewhere else?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Aug 22 2005 02:45 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

CMC shows a bend to the north

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

european also shows a bend to the north

http://snark.themedwiz.com/public/ecmwf-0z0822-7day.jpg

naples

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 02:50 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

Looks like cmc has the storm south of us developing pretty rapidly. How powerful do you think this thing will get, if at all.

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 02:50 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

that is 2 models out of how many? cmc has done nothing to impress me so far this year.

Personally i dont think models get a good grip on anything till they become something and as of right now its a open wave.
out of the fsu plots.. it's 3 out of 4 have a closed low. the other one sees 'something' open. euro and nam both show something developing. gfdl hasn't been initialized on it. all of them have something moving over or just east of florida this week. -HF

(User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 02:53 PM

here goes..

watching low cloud motions near the se bahamas... there's a low forming down there.
first ssd out on 98L.. it's at 1.5. the system has a cdo, so it should strengthen up to landfall.
97L probably won't do a whole lot until it gets near 40-45w.
HF 1453z22august

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 02:54 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

Looks like the Westerly flow is still with us.
XTD-10 could drop some rain on S.FLorida and then get into the Gulf and head WNW...
Something to watch for the next few days. It's very slow moving.

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:02 PM

Re: here goes..

HF definitely a twist to the system ... but I can't discern a LLC, a mid level rotation but nothing at the surface that I can pinpoint, unless its really broad in scope, which is also possible as its in the developing stage... shear still attacking it from the UUL above it however on the northern quad and ahead of it... however, I do like the rotation it is now presenting... which is a good start...

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:02 PM

Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

935 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS FORMING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

looks like we may break the record after all for the earliest tenth storm of the season--by one day!

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:06 PM

random morning

Decided to check in around here to see what people were saying on the African Wave (that doesn't look all that good anymore) and the remnants of TD10.

Beginning to wonder should it develop if the NHC will go with 10 or 11 as they have stopped using the TD10 designation in favor of "showers"

One model has it developing just past FL and turning it into a hurricane. One sees the front and I suppose is more interested in the front and staring at the front...doesn't do much with the wave. Others have it meandering west.. creating weather but not much else.

Have to stay with the thought that if something persists as an entity this long it bears watching.. begs you to watch so we may as well watch. Warm water yes (accounts for color) but unfavorable winds... makes it hard to define a center. Might hug the Old Bahama Passage all the way into the Straits if it really is trying to develop somewhere down the road. Either way.. it's more intriquing this morning than anything else.

Top half of the African Wave is dry.. missing in action. There's dust in that wave and mostly along the top. Until the Dust Monster is dealt with... waves won't develop until they are much further west.

Lastly...Looking at the WV imagery from high up in the sky..that is one of the most bizzare "highs" I have ever seen and not going to be that easy to get a storm across the Atlantic until that changes.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/displ...RENT=LATEST.jpg

Thanks... random indeed.. didn't plan to check in here but randomly I suddenly did.

Wierd set up going on right now for all the predictions of a busy second half of the season to verify. Suppose size doesn't matter and if you have a bunch of little storms forming fast in BOC or close in to Florida and going out to sea..the numbers are still there.

(Meteorologist)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:21 PM

Re: here goes..

Lo and behold, it reformed out over water. That's two of three I've been fooled on this year...not so fun when you're trying to predict these for a living! Thankfully it'll be a short-lived storm, but it's yet another to add to the annals of an active 2005. If Jose forms today, we'll tie 1995 (which had 3 storms form on August 22nd) for the record pace. Figure that's a good bet.

97L doesn't look as impressive convective-wise this morning, but is still well-organized overall. Expect the convection to make a comeback tonight and development to proceed from there. Wave behind it is getting some looks from the models now as well -- it's as well-organized as 97L was leaving the coast. Here comes the activity, more likely than not -- and like it or not.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:32 PM

Re: random morning *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:38 PM

Re: random morning

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR MEXICO... #11

Will be interesting to see if XTD10 does what some of the models are calling for,
if the NHC calls it TD10 again or TD12

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:40 PM

Re: random morning

This season has a very good chance of going into November,given the very warm water temps.It is only August 22nd,and now there are 3 systems to watch.But,don't you think it would be great if there were no more storms?But,THAT will never happen.

SMOKE

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:42 PM

Re: random morning *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:58 PM

Re: random morning

Quote:

Will be interesting to see if XTD10 does what some of the models are calling for, if the NHC calls it TD10 again or TD12

Maybe TD10 part deux??? I hope it's called only a rainmaker and nothing more!

Clark - I feel for you. My cousin is a met. in WPB FL...says this year has been a real head scratcher. I don't hope for more storms but if there are, I hope for your sake (and all of ours) that they're more predictable.

Can someone post a link to 97L stats...can't find anywhere. Want to know rate of foward speed so as to know what longitude it'll be near in 36-48hrs.

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:59 PM

Re: random morning

NHC predicted the number of storms for the season but did not claim there would be the exact number they predicted. Also, the predictions were based on certain criteria and also a very active July. Just because August has not been as active as July doesn't mean September or October won't be. We won't know exactly what will happen until it happens. Humans can only predict and although technology has come a long way there is still a lot we don't know about the weather. Anyway, the hurricanes are interesting to follow each year simply because the formation of these storms is fascinating to watch. And whether there are Category 4 storms out there or tropical storms they are still storms. And I will tell you from having lived through Allison a tropical storm can wreak just as much havoc as a hurricane at times.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 03:59 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Looks like now the 06Z GFS has latched onto a closed low developing in the central Bahamas and drifting west to the gold coast, across S FL, and then further developing in the SE GOM. That makes it nearly unanimous among the global models (includes 00Z Euro) in developing a depression or TS and slowly drfting it west into the GOM. If you believe the GFS, it will take this low 72 hours to go from offshore Ft Laud to offshore Ft Meyers in the Thur-Sun time frame. Wow, looks like a major rain event if nothing else.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:02 PM

Re: random morning

Quote:

What a BUST August has turned into, IMO there is NOWAY we will
reach the number of named storms that NHC or G.G. has claimed
there will be...This whole season has been nothing but hype. Really ticks me off.

first off, I dont think the people in Cancun, Pensacola, Cuba, or south of Brownsville will call it "nothing but hype"
second, EVERY YEAR we have a quiet period in August--in 1995 we had 19 storms; we had the seventh on August 10th and didnt have another for 11 days; in 1999 we had 12 storms, with the first on June 11 and the SECOND on August 19; 1984 we had 12 storms, with the first NOT EVEN FORMING until August 29!

Also, the peak is not until SEPTEMBER, and the last several years, the majority of activity has been AFTER AUGUST: 1998 we had 9 of the 14 after August, 1999 we had 7 of 12 after August, in 2000 we had 10 after August; 2001 we had 7 of AFTER SEPTEMBER, and if you remember last year we had 8 by now, with 7 more to follow after August. And last year had a long period of nothing mid-Oct to late Nov.

I am holding to my prediction of 16, and i think it is still very likely to reach 21 storms. If we have one more storm by 2pm tomorrow, we will be ahead of EVERY YEAR PRIOR!

now, as for the systems out there: TD11 will likely become a TS later tonight; XTD10/Trop Wave will not develop, upper winds are too strong; and 97L will probably not develop at all until the end of the week if ever--there is still too much dry air in the circulation, and the convection has weakened quite alot since yesterday.

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:23 PM

Re: random morning

Yah it is hot but so far things are going good the new TD is really nothing so i don't even count it as its not going anywhere.

Lets hope this week is just what it has been for awhile now just talk.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

America's team?
steriod Daemon and Schilling bought last years end of curse.

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:29 PM

Not so random storms

Well..that storm down near Mexico is going to hit land and will probably get a name. Beautiful to watch how it began spinning.

As for spinning.. hard to believe but off the N Coast of Haiti...something seems to be trying to spin.. or is twisting for sure... hard to believe but give it a look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:32 PM

Hey Ron

Ran your model loop here on lunch break.. a small storm if anything but plausible and could happen if the showers stay far south enough to not get caught up in that frontal boundary. Her weakness may save her..

Thanks for link.

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:37 PM

Re: Hey Ron

Recon now scheduled for tomorrow for invest area near bahamas

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:37 PM

Re: Not so random storms

I think the wave east of cuba may be forming a depression like structure (low level)..... hard to tell but i think there may something to watch for later today!

vis on wave

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:50 PM

Re: Not so random storms

Asked question earlier with no response. Thoughs of you that see a center oc circulation can you give an approx. lat & long. because all I see is a mass of clouds in the form of an open wave with alot of NE shear around. Tell me if I'm right or wrong. J.C.

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:52 PM

Re: Hey Ron

Why don't they put the storm floater 2 on the area in the Bahamas? Seems like if they are concerned enough to set up recon they would make it easier for us to see it...LOL!

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:53 PM

Re: Not so random storms

>>XTD10/Trop Wave will not develop, upper winds are too strong;

You should always put a caveat when dealing with the tropics or else use proclimations with universal modifiers with caution (not, never, always, definitely, etc.). The Upper Low to the NW of the wave energy and leftover energy from TD 10 will continue to move west to wsw over time which is what I think the globals are waiting for to develop the surface energy. If it does cut WSW or even SW, then the pattern reversal will, by nature, mean that upper level high pressure will replace the upper level low pressure that was formerly in that general area.

Bottom line, no way would I say "WILL DEVELOP" because upper level winds will be light in the next couple of days. I'm only going to say watch and see.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 22 2005 04:53 PM

Re: Not so random storms

maybe 73w 22n? ish
i think it's becoming more than a wave now....
there is shear on northern side....but it might be to its favor.
South Florida is in for some RAIN next week...............

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 05:00 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Quote:

If you believe the GFS, it will take this low 72 hours to go from offshore Ft Laud to offshore Ft Meyers in the Thur-Sun time frame. Wow, looks like a major rain event if nothing else.

We could certainly use the rain here on the west coast. It's been a *very* hot and dry August. I've been watching the model runs on this one, and I do think the CMC is too bullish on development once the wave hits the GOM. However, as more and more models begin to show the same thing, it's becoming harder to ignore them. Here's hoping nothing major comes of the wave, but I will say the rain and cooler temperatures will certainly be welcome.

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 05:12 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

No such thing as cooling down in FL this time of year, lol. I wish there was.
Rain we can do with. We had so much in July over here in Daytona we almost
drowned and in August just about nothing.
Anyway I am not liking the model concensus concerning XTD10.
CMC GFS and NOGAPS all show this evolving and moving right over FL
The FSU shows it off the SE coast near GA
UKM shows it in the middle of the gulf. With them all agreeing on SOMETHING
and FL being close, definately bears watching

(User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 05:12 PM

other off the wall stuff

take a look off NE coast. in the warm sector east of the advancing front, that old frontal low that was off hatteras the other day has acquired a convective core. it's being baroclinically forced and will leave support ssts within hours (currently near 39/62).. if it was a few hundred miles to the south it would probably be a short lived fish spinner. maybe it's evolution is indicative of the pattern we're entering.
noticed the low level flow with the wave entering the caribbean is backing as well... just scattered convection, though, so don't think a low pressure will form.
some years the fourth week of august just goes nuts...
HF 1712z22august

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 05:27 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Quote:

No such thing as cooling down in FL this time of year, lol. I wish there was.
Rain we can do with. We had so much in July over here in Daytona we almost
drowned and in August just about nothing.
Anyway I am not liking the model concensus concerning XTD10.
CMC GFS and NOGAPS all show this evolving and moving right over FL
The FSU shows it off the SE coast near GA
UKM shows it in the middle of the gulf. With them all agreeing on SOMETHING
and FL being close, definately bears watching

Pam, on board with u with the consensus of models forming a closed circulation. I think the big story with this feature may be its very slow movement. None of the models are really deepening the low except for the CMC. My geuss, & only one, is that we'll get a tropical depression or weak trop storm forming before it moves across the peninsula to the GOM. That being said, some of our highest rainfall amounts are associated with weak systems so this could potentially be a 5-10 incher if it really moves at a crawl as the models show. I did see the latest VIS SAT - looks to be a broad rotation now in the SE Bahamas.

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 05:33 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

From the NWS in Miami

ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE PROMISES A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK. 06Z GFS SHOWS CONTINUED VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH COULD MEAN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
OF COURSE...IT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AS WELL.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HELP REBUILD AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE PENINSULA.
SO TROPICAL WAVE IMPACT MAINLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

Also this from the NHC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 05:36 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

i just saw the vis zoom on the bahamas wave
interesting to see how Hispaniola is influencing the wind pattern--north of the island, there is a definate closed, if broad, rotation, at least in mid levels, but south of the island, the winds are all straight out of the east

i think this has a shot at development before the end of the week

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Mon Aug 22 2005 06:52 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Of course, I'm good at seeing phantoms, but it looks close to closing off a sfc low around 21N 72W or so, it's still disorganized but looking at the msfc visible loop in the area, you can see a sw to NE turning to N then Turning to NW then W... windflow at the surface I don't think there's a south wind on the west side of the wave. but it's starting to look a little more viable....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

-Mark

(User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 06:55 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

i think it will be reclassified (as td 10 or maybe they'll just call it 12) tomorrow. it's slowly , slowly spinning up... looks to be focusing near the convective burst that has been going off all morning around great inagua (the slightly larger island in the SE bahamas). there's a shortwave ridge moving in from the east which should start to ventilate the area tomorrow.. today it's in a weak sheared environment thanks to that small upper low sliding by to the north. if this thing develops.. and it looks to be.. it's a big ticket item. most of the globals have it crossing southern florida into the gulf late in the week.
td 11 may or may not get bumped up to jose. the deep layer flow caught it as it developed and it's moving faster than the globals were showing (they tend to hang things up in the rim of the BoC anyway). should move onshore tonight, not tomorrow night, like the official says. recon will probably find winds near t.s. force. nhc likes to play these conservative. they probably won't upgrade it unless it makes a convincing case.
97L looks about like it has for the last 36 hrs or so. the center is near 16/33 and moving over marginal ssts/though a marginal environment; some of the dynamic guidance has it making a pretty dramatic recurvature near 50w at the end of the week. i'm not sold on that evolution quite yet.. with nao positive there should be a tendency for stair-stepping storms that feel troughs and miss them.. unless they're fairly strong.
that model-seen coastal low that peels out from the carolina coast as the current shortwave over tennessee moves off.. i'm more convinced it will exist than some of the other hybrid storms models have been waffling over so far this season. i do think it will be hybrid, though.. e.g. not a classified tropical system. globals were earlier trying to deepen it and recurve the old td 10 energy with it.. with the nao state it will probably just deepen and go.. and let the ridge push back in behind it a little.
HF 1855z22august

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:00 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Am I blind? How come I just do not see the closed circulation...anywhere? Don't get me wrong, I can see that it's obviously trying to get it's act together...but I just do not see the CCOC.

Quote:

I think the big story with this feature may be its very slow movement...That being said, some of our highest rainfall amounts are associated with weak systems so this could potentially be a 5-10 incher if it really moves at a crawl as the models show.

UGH! Anyone here remember Irene (Oct.99) ? SE FL..we got hammered with the rain (and that moved much quicker than the anticipated system.) My street was blocked off by cops for an entire week until the water receed to a safe level.

What's the timeline for potential arrival on this thing? I gotta be in Orlando from tomorrow until Fri. for a convention.

I know end of week. Are we talking Thurs/Fri or Sat/Sun??

rmbjoe1954

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:07 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Thank you, Hank Frank.

But I am interested in knowing if XTD10 will be renamed TD10 or would it more likely be given a new ID as TD12 as a 'home grown' system.?

Which way would the NHC lean towards?

(User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:13 PM

complaints?

i went and read the graveyarded stuff this morning. i'm not sure it should have been deleted... because even though i'd call the comments misguided they didn't really break any rules. gotta wonder why someone thinks tropical systems don't count because they're weak and hit mexico, though. we get a couple weeks off the insane pace we had in july and a bunch of people start shrieking about the active season being a bust. mind we've had that every year i've been here in some fashion or another (was really funny hearing people talking about a slow 2004 in late july.. august shut them up real quick). last november when i put my season #s at 17/11/5 i was thinking i'd probably miss high... glad i didn't give in to the consensus and go lower when the adjustments were made in may (EVERYONE was below me).. just kept 'em there. i dunno.. maybe i've always thought that forecasting wasn't about vacillating with the crowd, or trend of the week; if you're right, you're right.. if you're wrong you're wrong. it's looked like i'll miss low ever since mid july. name me a year in the last ten where we've had fewer than eight named storms after august 21. just 1997. i don't see that el nino, hombres.
HF 19132z22august

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:13 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

New Graphics are up....interesting turn of events (as always with this one)

sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

rmbjoe1954

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:18 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Those graphics are beginning to remind me of Irene (1999).
I think that the models are having difficulty in defining the strength and direction of the remanants of TD10-let alone if it will be renamed TD10 or given the latest number on the docket.

naples

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:18 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Wow, if the LBAR is correct, I'd better get prepared. lol.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:18 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

From the NHC 2:05

SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.

MapMaster

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:21 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Looks like model hash to me....wait until they have LLCC to initialize on....

Agree with you 100% HF on all aspects of your last post (about previous seasons and sticking to your guns).

Train is leaving the station, it's about to get REAL interesting....lot of rain for S Fl, at the least, it seems.

PS--1935 CAT V was a tropical storm in the Bahamas 24 hours before landfall. I am NOT saying that will happen this time...just that 'anything' is possible.

MM

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:22 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Quote:

]I know end of week. Are we talking Thurs/Fri or Sat/Sun??

Maybe Thurs/Fri/Sat/and Sun.....ROFL! J/K

I'm curious why I keep hearing that it may cross Florida. I think JB said this a.m. it may be off the coast of the Cape later in the week. All the models have it going under Florida. Are the models not accurate at this stage of the development??

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:22 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

There's just too much shear over the Bahamas/Hispaniola right now to get anything going. The circulation that is observed by some is not at the surface, since you can see the surface flow of the wave moving by. It's trying to get it's act together though, but the shear still remains brutal. Maybe conditions will improve tomorrow, but the NHC was playing that tune last week and the hostile conditions continued. Things in the tropics should begin to blossom soon though...its the time of year when you can wake up one morning and BOOM...just like someone turned on a lightswitch. It happened in the BOC today; perhaps the Caribbean tomorrow. Cheers!!

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:23 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Quote:

New Graphics are up....interesting turn of events (as always with this one)

sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

Need to be a little cautious with these models - a whole another suite of global models (i.e. GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF,CMC) take the system further north and across the south half of the peninsula.

(User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:24 PM

dynamic models

that's the first time i've seen the dynamic models.. they're a bit further south than i'd guessed, but not much. has me leaning more on the system migrating across the southern end of the state or the keys around fri/sat. probably not very intense. early next week that thing could be a very serious issue in the gulf, though.. if this stuff verifies.
joe i wouldn't relate this thing to irene (other than the slow movement concept). jerry of 1995 is probably more apt. irene was quick mid-october storm that came up out of the western caribbean.. totally different synoptic pattern. its rain shield was elongated along its track, thus all the rain/flooding in se florida.
HF 1924z22august

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:31 PM

Re: dynamic models

From NWS Melbourne PM Disc:

TUE-WED...OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE GOOD CONSENSUS WRT DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. LATEST RUN OF GFS
INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CIRCULATION OVER THE SE BAHAMAS
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE FL STRAITS BY LATE WED. RECON AIRCRAFT
SET TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY. THE LOW
CENTER IS INITIALLY DRAWN NORTHWARD BY WEAKNESS IN RIDGE ASCD WITH
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST. WITH THIS SCENARIO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN ELY FLOW BY WED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES TUE AS REMNANT OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA BUT SHOULD SEE MORE COASTAL SHOWERS BY TUE NIGHT AND WED
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF SYS.

THU-SUN...GLOBAL SUITE POINTS TOWARD SLOW WWD MOVEMENT OF SYS OVER S
FL TO THE KEYS/FL BAY AREA FRI THEN OVER THE SE GULF THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOCAL WILD
CARD WILL BE LIKELIHOOD OF A DEEPENING SYSTEM SOUTH OF AREA WHICH
WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N. RAIN CHANCES MAY BE
BOOSTED BY LATER FORECASTS AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON
DETERIORATING ELEMENTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ATTM. BEST BET WILL BE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FROM MIDWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY OF
SYSTEM SOUTH OF AREA

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:37 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

what is "xtrap" (black line, i assume it means extrapolation)
what is the track though? its always a straight line, i am wondering if that is simply showing the current direction of movement?

that's it. extrapolated track off the present movement vector. it will almost always be outperformed by the models (sad when it isn't). -HF

Keith234

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:40 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

I would assume to use as the "control", so you can clearly see what the current track is and how it will be changed.

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:47 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

TD11 radar

the center is easily descernable and it is likely that this is near TS intensity now
has the plane been in it yet?

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 07:54 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Quick post here. Well I may not be very good at forecasting strength of a system, Im pretty damn accurate looking at where a system will go. My BOC system should be a TS and move inland late tonight into tomorrow. Its gone on forecasted track,although I thought it could of been more N, but the upper low to its w pulled it more towards it.
Old TD10 or so called I should say should develop more into a TD over the next day or so. Movement will be wnw then NW. I place it near Nassau ( somewhere) by weds night. Then as the trough exits out and ridging builds over the SE, expect a crossover of S florida from the Keys-Melbourne by Friday. As it gets into the SE gulf the steering flow will be weak as the ridge slides N of the bahamas and a weak trough moves into the SE US late this weekend into early next week.
Overall movement will continue to be slow. Strength? Ill leave that to people who forcast those better.

scottsvb

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 08:15 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Hey all...check out this VIS SAT. Awesome view.

Clearly visable is TD 11 BOC storm, XTD10 is definitely showing more TD characteristics.

But of interest....look at how impressive 97L looks from this angle even in its current condition.

www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/zoomvis.jpg

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 08:16 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

i can't resist but i do remember you did have many comments on Emily going north.Each time it took a jog north you had it going over cuba and there was another you said was going somehwere i remember but then when it went elsewhere you dissapered from posting.

So not bashing you but like many others on here we all have been wrong on paths as well as how strong.

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 08:18 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

do you have a loop of this image anywhere? it would be interesting to see exactly how organized XTD10 is and if 97L is getting any better organized

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 08:25 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

No (for 97L) , unfortunately that site only has that VIS SAT in still image.

Here is the site's SATs in their entireties. You can check out XTD10 on the E.CARB (obviously) loop..shows nicely.

www.sfwmd.gov/curre/3_satellite.html

Hawkeyewx

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Aug 22 2005 08:26 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

It already looks like we have Tropical Storm Jose in the BOC and it appears to be gaining strength fairly quickly. It looks a lot better than Gert ever did.

The Bahamas system looks interesting, with a southwesterly surface wind being pulled off the eastern section of Cuba. The upper low to its north should keep any development in check for the next day or two, but the upper air conditions should improve thereafter. This could be an interesting system if the planets align just right.

97 Invest is a HUGE circulation, but it is already pretty far to the north so it would have to stay pretty weak to make it across the Atlantic without turning north ahead of the trough off the US east coast.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 08:37 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

Quote:

97 Invest is a HUGE circulation, but it is already pretty far to the north so it would have to stay pretty weak to make it across the Atlantic without turning north ahead of the trough off the US east coast.

It looks like it has the potential to become a monster storm should it develope...let's hope it only spins fish.

(Meteorologist)

Mon Aug 22 2005 08:47 PM

Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas

TD 11 is still a 30kt depression, but recon isn't out there yet. Kinda curious as to why the package came out to early if recon is supposed to be there for a fix by 5p as per the report (and was close at 4p), but oh well. Do expect a special advisory to bump this up to a TS -- Jose -- within the next hour or so. And no, unlike the initial 5p discussion said, this won't be storm #11 for the season...just #10. They'll correct that, too.

Low center might be trying to form on the NE end of the disturbed area in the Bahamas, due north of Hispaniola and due east of Homestead, FL, but it's not closed yet and winds are light in that area. It's got the potential for development, but it's not going anywhere fast over the next few days, giving us plenty of time to watch it. General track towards S. Florida over the next few days is likely; beyond that, too early to tell. Edit: check water vapor...definite upper-low is what is being reflected there. Gotta work it's way down to the surface -- not out of the question -- but it's going to impede anything else from getting going in its immediate vicinity in the near-term.

If nothing else, 97L has consolidated somewhat. The convection on the southern end is gone and new convection appears to be trying to fire near the low-level center near 17N/34W. Will have to watch the trends with that overnight, but if it holds together, it'll probably become a depression sometime tomorrow or Wednesday. Area just along the coast has impressive convection but not much organization yet...still one to watch over the coming days.

More later if I get a chance, though with TD 11/Jose about ready to move inland, there's not a whole lot to update...yet.

(Meteorologist)

Mon Aug 22 2005 09:27 PM

Recon reports

No vortex report yet, but the first few recon reports near the system suggest it is a tropical storm. They are flying at very low levels -- between about 750 and 1000ft -- and have reported winds to 48kt on the SE side of the circulation. Pressure is being reported around 1003-1005mb. Winds along the north and east sides of the storm suggest a definite closed center...only a matter of time before we get a vortex report and an upgrade to Jose.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 09:32 PM

Re: Recon reports

This is typical in a low-midlevel circulation that comes down to the surface. Most mid-latitude systems that come down to the surface generally get to TS status soon as the winds in the midlevel are already from 35-60kt......I expect maybe 50mph right now, give or take 5tkt

(Meteorologist)

Mon Aug 22 2005 09:37 PM

Re: Recon reports

NHC just put out the update -- TS Jose with winds of 45mph. Full updated package to come.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Mon Aug 22 2005 09:39 PM

10 back on NRL

Really, that says it all... the on again off again system is kinda back on again

-Mark

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Mon Aug 22 2005 10:02 PM

Re: 10 back on NRL

Well Jose looks set to be a shortlived storm, likely going inland tonight and nearing dissipation by this time tomorrow. Still, yet another one for the record books!

As far as xTD10 goes, it certainly seems to be giving yet another attempt at a comeback, and has gotten a little better organised. If this trend continues we could see it reclassified later tomorrow.

97L. Well, this is a huge circulation, which actually may not be working quite in its favour. I think that it could take a little longer yet for the whole system to consolidate, which it seems to be trying to do. Probably have to wait a day or two for classification of this system too.

Certainly seems to be firing off again as we approach the peak period of the season. And there will be plenty more to come before the year is out!

NONAME

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 10:22 PM

Re: 10 back on NRL

Since navy has the area in the Bahamas as 10LNONAME the is would most likely be reclassified as td 10 not anything else just to clear that up to any one who wanted to know. Just for superstitious people this would be the 3 time 10 would be trying to make a comeback so you know what they say 3rd times a charm so I would say it would come back it looks better than ever since it was in the central Atlantic.

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 10:38 PM

TS Jose, 50mph, 1002mb

winds expected to reach 60mph before landfall; we broke the record now for earliest tenth storm of the season (by less than 24hours)--the earliest 11th was Karen and the earliest 12th was Luis, both in 1995, and both on August 28.

we may break both of those, seeing as today is only the 22nd--Katrina may form from former TD10, within 72 hours if it does, and either 97L or the system behind it could become Lee before six days time (Lenny was retired in 1999)

note: this is not wishcasting (although it would certainly be a bit interesting to see); i do honestly think that we will have at least one storm out by Africa, at least by the end of the month, and i also think it is becomming increasingly possible for XTD10 to redevelop. It has hung on for 8 days now, without being classified, and has gotten into a less hostile area.

it is also still quite likely to have a very active season (we have already had an average number for an entire year, and there has NEVER been a year with nothing developing in September). Last year, 7 storms developed after August, which would match Clark's prediction (i think his was 17)

anyone else's thoughts on 10L, 97L, and the system behind it forming into storms at any point?

Edit: I'd love to take credit for the 17 prediction, as that is looking pretty good from where we sit now, but that's all HF. I was down for 14. --Clark

NONAME

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 10:44 PM

Re: TS Jose, 50mph, 1002mb

Look right in the middle in the red of this IR image looks like a eye is trying to form can someone help me confirm this or tell me what it is.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 22 2005 10:48 PM

Re: TS Jose, 50mph, 1002mb

its nothing,,defidently not a eye though.

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Mon Aug 22 2005 10:49 PM

Re: TS Jose, 50mph, 1002mb

Looks to me like that little red areea on the IR could be the beginnigs of a CDO... of course, i could be way of base here, but given the reasonable quick development of this system, it is certainly possible.

Big Kahuna

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Aug 22 2005 10:49 PM

IRONIC or what...

Sorry to get off the subject but it just hit me....TS JOSE is going to hit land in MEXICO....... Go figure....

. The way things have been lately I guess anything can happen. Whats next?

Lysis

(User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 10:51 PM

Re: IRONIC or what...

No dude, that is an Infrared loop. No eye... quite the contrary infact. The reds and darker colors signify intense convection, and perhaps, as Rich B said, the cyclone is attempting to form a cdo.

Look at the overshooting cloud top in the visible loop. That is what you are seeing:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/RGB_loop.html

EDIT: Uh, yeah... that is why they have names that span over multiple demographics. The US isn't the only place hit by hurricanes, you know.

EDIT II: ah... sorry daniel. Perhaps I used the wrong terminology. Not as in a severe thunderstorm. You are right.

(Moderator)

Mon Aug 22 2005 11:28 PM

Re: IRONIC or what...

Quote:

Look at the overshooting cloud top in the visible loop. That is what you are seeing:

I'm not seeing any overshooting cloud tops. You may be seeing a shadow of a higher cloud that is moving with the Sun at a low angle. It looks clear and smooth over Jose'.
That's an RGB Loop. Not a true visible light spectrum. (man made)

Jekyhe904

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Aug 22 2005 11:32 PM

18z GFS loop of x10 in the gulf is 'comical'

If the 18z gfs is correct, I found 4 landfall points for xtd10. cuba, Keywest, Pensacola, and New orleans as it makes the final landfall in about 336 hours. Would love to see a model track of this loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

NONAME

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 22 2005 11:44 PM

Re: 10

What is happen with R10 and when is recon going to be in Jose again before landfall

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 23 2005 12:03 AM

The 8 PM EDT Wrap

Jose', should be making landfall in the next 6 hours or so...being he's only about 40 miles from the beach as it is.

The link above, referring to XTD 10 is a Surface based, precip loop and Does Not imply anything other than rain, thunderstorms, and a surface pressure of around 1008mb.
The vorticity structure of XTD 10 remains aloft, to some degree. As evidenced in the 850 and 500mb level plots.

**I will go along with you on the connection between the Turks/ Caicos vortice and the GOM vortice. I'll have to look at the run to run continuity. Although there is a break in the signature...it remains in the general vicinity.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 23 2005 12:24 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

ahhhh......another pretty picture of a tropical system this yeah

JOSE i can see ya

before sun goes down!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 23 2005 12:27 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

so what does everybody think about the feature around 70w 25n will do to wave to it's south....
is it that a mid to upper level low moving nw to west?

Keith234

(Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 23 2005 01:09 AM

Re: IRONIC or what...

Quote:

Quote:

Look at the overshooting cloud top in the visible loop. That is what you are seeing:

I'm not seeing any overshooting cloud tops. You may be seeing a shadow of a higher cloud that is moving with the Sun at a low angle. It looks clear and smooth over Jose'.
That's an RGB Loop. Not a true visible light spectrum. (man made)

I believe this is what Lysis was referring to.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

if you look dead in the center you can see that there is an overshooting cloud top. Makes it look very symmetric.

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 23 2005 01:50 AM

Keeps Going and Going

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
122 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 ([]edited~danielw)

VALID AUG 22/1200 UTC THRU AUG 26/0000 UTC

......FEATURE IN VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS...

THE 12Z NAM HAS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WX INVOF THE SERN BAHAMAS. THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS
SUGGESTED BEFORE THE END OF DAY 1...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING
IS SUGGESTED ESP AFTER 48 HRS. THE NAM TAKES A SFC LOW TRACK NWWD
THRU THE CTRL BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NWRN BAHAMAS. THIS TRACK IS
JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS PERHAPS JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER.

THE 12Z GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAS TRENDED
WEAKER WITH IT FOR THE FIRST 36 HRS. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z RUN IS
BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE 00Z RUN REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT. ITS
TRACK HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT ALL THE WAY THRU 84
HRS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 23 2005 01:52 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

Interesting twist to the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF models in that both now take a developing low pressure across S FL into the SE GOM and then slowly move the system north along the west coast of FL. Yikes!

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2005082212!!/

Big Red Machine

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:02 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

Very interesting runs there Ron. Also important I think is the fact the GFS kind of stalls it out along the west coast, as from 96-144 hrs, movement is very slow.

Accoding to accuweather tonight, the weaker the high, the worse it is for Florida. Despite the need for rain in some areas of the state, a slow crisscrosser regardless of intensity (TD/TS/H) would not be a good thing. The latest model runs (BAMMs, LBAR, etc) did shift a little more north than they had been previously. Obviously we need a true LLC before the models can spit out truly accurate info, but those runs were eye catching.

Edited to add another model showing the "end around" of Florida: Model

Edited again so that it does not screw up the page.

sorry about that.

La Nimo

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:02 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

Be carefully for what you wish for,you been wishing for it all week, well you may get it in your backyard.
someone was wishing for something? who was that, may i ask?

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:07 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

This map includes the last NHC Discussion track data and position FROM 8/14/2005.

000

WHXX01 KWBC 230116

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050823 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050823 0000 050823 1200 050824 0000 050824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.3N 73.5W 21.8N 75.1W 22.4N 76.8W 23.0N 78.7W

BAMM 21.3N 73.5W 21.9N 75.2W 22.6N 76.9W 23.2N 78.6W

A98E 21.3N 73.5W 21.7N 74.7W 22.3N 76.1W 23.3N 77.9W

LBAR 21.3N 73.5W 21.9N 75.1W 23.1N 76.8W 24.5N 78.6W

SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050825 0000 050826 0000 050827 0000 050828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 23.6N 80.7W 24.3N 84.1W 24.1N 87.2W 23.7N 89.9W

BAMM 23.9N 80.3W 24.5N 83.1W 24.2N 85.5W 23.8N 87.6W

A98E 24.5N 80.2W 25.3N 85.8W 25.4N 90.0W 23.6N 91.5W

LBAR 25.9N 80.0W 27.5N 80.8W 28.8N 79.6W 30.7N 79.6W

SHIP 49KTS 63KTS 73KTS 78KTS

DSHP 49KTS 63KTS 73KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 72.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 20.7N LONM24 = 70.8W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:11 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

Your plots looks up to date but the NHC run model calc. is 6 hours old am I wrong here?

Dave

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:14 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

Once again, Skeet comes through!

I've noticed that most of the model animations that are being posted use the surface level pressures.
While these are fine in determining surface pressure and precipitation.
The Upper Air level animations should give a better idea of the vorticity, or spin, of the systems.
Try looking at the 850mb and 500mb level animations.
A tropical wave or depression would be visible in the 850mb levels.
Whereas a Cat 1 hurricane should extend into the 500mb levels and possibly into the 250mb level.
It will give you a better idea of the depth of the storm. 3-D if you will.

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:15 AM

Local Update

Here is tonight's take on the situation from a local WPB meteorologist who has been advertising for days a possible flooding situation approaching Florida at a snails pace:

Rich, that is a very good analogy of Jerry.....Although the upper atmospheric conditions are not what I call the best for this situation..The one thing I looked at is the steering winds up to mid levels which reveal to me that this system will be slow to move and given the fact that with the sun's unusually high solar radiation and little in the way of rain the water temps jumped up quite a bit. This may have been the contributing factors for Jerry in 1995 but in this case though this tropical wave heading our way is actually going to move just south and we are in the wettest part of it..a 1008 mb tropical low by late friday night on the GFS is no joke to me..in fact a slow movement in the area of our adjacent atlantic and more specifcally the keys and the gulf is really a concern ...a 1008mb low to me already means a tropical depression...even if it moves slowly westward across the keys Friday and slowly turns northwest actually going around the entire offshore peninsula from the southeast coast to the west coast of florida...into the weekend...this is really a system to watch out for a deluge of a rainmaker!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:16 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

TAFB outlook

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

YEP.....August could go out with a bang!

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:18 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

Quote:

Your plots looks up to date but the NHC run model calc. is 6 hours old am I wrong here?

Dave

The NHC data is the old data from 8/14 - the last discussion they released on this storm. We are working on an issue with the UKMET models, which do not show up in our system if the UK Mets don't include the NHC identifier in their data, in this case, AL102005.

edited to add...
The UKMET models should magically appear in the right location once this issue is resolved. The thumbnail above and the iimage it links to updatd automatically as model data is added to our system.

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:22 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

What I was saying the run from today but for 20050822 1800 UTC not 20050823 0000 UTC which is what your plot shows, no big deal .
Dave

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:27 AM

Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap

Quote:

What I was saying the run from today but for 20050822 1800 UTC not 20050823 0000 UTC which is what your plot shows, no big deal .
Dave

OH!!! LOL! The thumbnail updated with the latest data before I posted. I went back and grabbed the updated text.

Good catch, thanks.

Jekyhe904

(Verified CFHC User)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:41 AM

Xtd#10

Sounds like even the NHC is unsure whether the disturbance is Xtd10 or not. U remember something similar happenning last year with Ivan when it reformed as to whether it was really Ivan or not.

So I'm guessing since the models and Navy are still calling this TD10, that is what the NHC will go with?

Here is the excerpt...

Quote:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 23 2005 02:46 AM

Models

Here's an interesting take on Models-Tropical Computer Models, that is.
The models are indicating Jose' to be near 23-24N/ 111-115W in 96 hours. No problem there.
Intensity models are in strong disagreement.
SHIP model is forecasting 102kts- over land and mountains!
DSHP model is showing 27 kts-most likely!

NHC has tasked an INVEST flight into the Bahamas for 18Z on Tuesday. With Wednesday's Flight tasking into a 'Cyclone'...indicating a Tropical Depression at a minimum.

SHIPS Intensity Forecast for the system formerly known as TD 10.
8/28/05 00Z-or Saturday Evening
78kts...SST near 30C...located near 23.8N/ 87.6W.
**this is an intensity forecast. Please refer to Official NHC forecasts for Tropical System Statements, Watches and Warnings

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Aug 23 2005 03:02 AM

Re: Models

If I remember correctly my readings on the models at NHC, none of the intensity models have been designed to take land into account. I'd guess that's the problem with Jose and the mountains.

P.S. - would a moderator mind changing BigRedMachine's super-long link into a [ URL ] tag with a short name? It makes everyone's posts scroll funny

I shortened the link and Big Red fixed what I had done!..it's fixed.~danielw

Brad in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 23 2005 03:20 AM

Re: Models

Daniel: Building on what Random wrote, I think SHIP does not take land into account, but rather assumes the cylone (in this case, Jose) will be moving over water during the entire period of the model run. DSHP attempts to take into account the actual terrain the cyclone will pass over. Of course, the output from both depends in large part on the input and on the projected forecast track, among other factors....one mountain can make a huge difference. So the difference in the "forecasts" from the 2 is not unusual.

-Brad

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 23 2005 03:26 AM

Re: Models

>>It will give you a better idea of the depth of the storm. 3-D if you will.

Also presumes that a system is stacked. It's pretty usual that with the US Generated model (GFS), various layers show vortexes at different positions where they don't usually align. While the upper vort-maxes and features are helpful for guidance and tying everything together, without a mature "stacked" storm, they're all guestimates IMHO. Using the surface plots and then looking at the 200, 250, 500, 850, etc. can help narrow down range of future motion and hone in on whether that model sees true intensification and to what depth. But ultimately we live at the surface, and if a model is correct, that's the weather we'll be seeing down hea'.

Steve
Thanks, Steve. Here at work, my thought train gets interrupted. You painted a better picture. I used to check the Sfc plots. Then I realised that you can have a shower at the surface without having a vortice above it. The opposite is also true. An elevated vortice may be present with out a surface reflection.~danielw

isaroni.. ack, don't say that word! -HF

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Aug 23 2005 03:40 AM

Re: Models

To follow on from your post, and clarify my own:

"Similar to SHIFOR, SHIPS was developed from cases where the storm track did not cross land."

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

--RC

Are you looking over my shoulder? I was just reading that same page!~danielw

Telepathy can be a fun thing

--RC

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 23 2005 03:54 AM

Re: Models

the fsu model has td 10 near cape canaveral then moving west across the state and another storm a couple hundred miles east of it ?? is this a good model at all??

It seems to do better with Trop. Storms and above...i.e. better signature. Be sure and check the model run time, as they don't always update very 12 hours.

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Tue Aug 23 2005 04:09 AM

Re: Models

orlando- do you have the link for the FSU model? I would be interested in looking at it but for some reason can't find the link
thanks

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 23 2005 04:10 AM

Re: Models

im sure its the last run see for yourself http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2...Animation...let me know what you think ........3 was enough for me last year with charley taking the #1 spot for house and property damage for me

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 23 2005 04:13 AM

Re: Models

You can get to it at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ as it runs; the runs later get input into http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ with some additional/different products there. The model does reasonably well with the overall pattern & its features, but there hasn't been a real system out there since we changed the convective scheme in the model about 10 days to two weeks ago (Irene occurred during the middle of that). Thus, we don't know entirely how well it is going to perform from here on out. My guess is that intensity will be underdone, but it's a necessary trade-off to keep terrain features from playing a huge role.

Generally, it is run every 6hr when there is a tropical storm in the basin and every 12hr when there is not one. Technical glitches sometimes interrupt the runs.

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 23 2005 04:21 AM

Re: Models

Orlando. It's showing the 12Z run right now. That would be the early (sunrise) Monday run. Latest runs tonight should have 0823/00Z, or something similar on them. Right now the GFDL on ten-L would be the latest of all those models.

Clark, they changed the parameters? I thought it was doing really well as it was.

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Tue Aug 23 2005 04:24 AM

Re: Models

Thanks orlando and Clark
I think you may be right orlando but I'm not that good at reading these models. Still learning I had enough last year with Frances and Jeanne right on top of me just got house repaired and I for one am on pins and needles. I am fascinated with these storms but I tend to favor the fish spinners

I can't help but think of last Labor Day and Frances beating my house for seems like two days

Jekyhe904

(Verified CFHC User)

Tue Aug 23 2005 04:35 AM

Re: Models

Looks like the GFS no longer develops #10 through 7 days...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_m.shtml
Nam/ETA could be interresting (FWIW) moving up the coast of fla and near Melbourne as a 1004mb TD by day 4
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml
Im not so sure but dont think NAM is a good model for tropical systems BTW

(User)

Tue Aug 23 2005 04:53 AM

status

earlier i was progging xtd 10 to reform tuesday... may or may not get that one. the mid-level vorticity and surface trough/weak low are still lined up, but convection has been spotty and jumpy all day. part of this has to do with the diurnal convection associated with hispaniola and cuba. with that wave approaching from the east and the shortwave ridge trying to build over it as the upper low to the north slides west.. the thing should become better organized tomorrow. whether it's a depression is more doubtful, but i'm fairly sure this thing will be a tropical storm in a couple of days.
away to the east 97L is getting closer to warm ssts. it's slowly becoming better organized.. should start to rev up pretty good when it gets closer to 45w. as before.. probably going out to sea.
jose is the third system to rapidly form over the BoC this season and slide westward. the area around tampico/veracruz is being pummeled by midgets this year.
HF 0453z23august

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 23 2005 05:02 AM

Models2

The updated/ latest models are in.
Hank, I'm in agreement with you, as usual, on the Tropical System in the Bahamas. Strange as it may seem the GFS has totally lost the signature in the 23/00Z model run.
The NAM is plotting the system but nil on the NGM, to no surprise.

I mentioned earlier that the NHC models had Jose' way out west at 102kts in 48-72 hours. I checked the latest GFS run, and it is forecasting nearly the same thing. I failed to notice that the 23N/ 115W coordinates were well into the E. Pacific. So Jose' may become the first ATL storm to cross over Mexico into the Pacific this year. 48 hours should tell us whether he will make it or not.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 23 2005 05:07 AM

Re: Models2

Danny -- yeah, a couple of parameters were changed, mainly to account for the problems that the model was having with terrain-induced areas of lower pressure hitting warm SSTs and rapidly spinning up into hurricanes.

I don't think Jose stands a chance of making it to the EPac as a trackable tropical cyclone. Some mid-level energy from the storm may make it across to the East Pacific and bring about a near-shore tropical storm there, as some of the models are calling for, but given the very small size of Jose and the amount (and type) of terrain it will have to travel over, I don't think we'll see it make it there as Jose, if at all.

I'm going to throw up a quick update on the blogs in just a bit with more.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 23 2005 08:18 AM

the system that Stephen King would be proud of....

I am going to be very curious what visible light brings for former 10. the system that refuses to die. Can't really tell from IR what's lurking down at the surface. I don't think it's organized yet, but it's not for lack of effort at this point. Heck, I imagine everyone and their golden retrievers are watching this system. I still find it interesting/amazing how stubborn the system has been. (even if in general it's probably not the origional TD10 anymore... it's close enough)

Anyone else want to say TD at 5PM today? Caveat being, that there is a LLC somewhere down there and the system continues to organize and the storms don't die as soon as I go to bed

-mark

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 23 2005 09:05 AM

Re: the system that Stephen King would be proud of....

Mark,
i will kind of join you in saying it 'COULD' be a TD today. IR imagery shows some improvement in the organisational structure overnight. First light visibles should be interesting, and with the Recon going out later we will no doubt find out for sure if it has succeeded in making a comeback.

97L has also become better organised overnight, and i think we could see it classified today. Dry air to its west is giving it a somewhat lopsided appearance, but the upper-level conditions arent bad, and the sst's are warm.

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Tue Aug 23 2005 10:19 AM

Re: the system that Stephen King would be proud of....

From the Extended Outlook for West Central and Southwest Florida:

THE COMMON THREAD TO THE SOLNS IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE PENINSULA FOR THE PERIOD...SO SEE NO REASON TO GO LOWER THAN 50 POPS EACH DAY. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR FRI AFTN ONLY...AND GO WITH SCT POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF GOING TO 60 PCT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD UNTIL WE ACTUALLY SEE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.

Interestingly, the forecaster who wrote this mentions twice that the NAM model brings a tropical storm to the Florida east coast, but discounts it, as he is sticking with GFS for now.

The model runs this morning seem unanimous in bringing something across southern Florida. Which makes me wonder what the FSU superensemble shows, since historically it performs the best. Can Clark or anyone confirm that the superensemble is in agreement with the other models? Or does the superensemble only get run for genuine storms, and not mere waves? Sorry for the stupid question, but I'm still trying to learn.

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 23 2005 10:22 AM

X10 97L

Rich, 97L is looking slightly ominous this morning. The size of the system as a whole is very unusual. Even on Infrared loops it appear to cover over 1000 nm.

X10 looks to have kept most of the Turks and Caicos residents awake for the last few hours with consistant lightning and thunder. Area of dry air to the NW of the vortice center. Hasn't managed to choke off the system ...yet.

Looks like Rabbit might have to get out his magic bag to kill this one!

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 23 2005 10:35 AM

Re: the system that Stephen King would be proud of....

Becky. No question is stupid. My Drill Sergent used to say that the only question that 'was' stupid. "Was the one you didn't ask".

That aside. Most of the NWS folks use the GFS consistantly...so when it throws a curve, like it did last night. They discount most of the other models and stick with the GFS. The NAM is progging a Tropical System in the Southern FL Peninsula area. So 1 out of 3 of the main models picks up the system.
There will probably be more than 1 Forecast Discussion throwing the NAM solution out the window today.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
All of the models updated at 00Z last night.
Be sure and check out the CMC model!