MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Oct 12 2005 10:05 PM |
Mostly Quiet in the Atlantic
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Just an update to state that it is very quiet in the Atlantic right now, just a row of clouds from Puerto Rico north through the Atlantic, with nothing imminent to develop out of that.
We'll be watching for changes.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 13 2005 12:08 AM |
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Re: Mostly Quiet in the Atlantic
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Mike. Thanks for nice words and I hope they hold out for the remainder ...of 2005.
Everyone needs a break.
Here are a few excerpts from the 8:05 PM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/122338.shtml?
...FAR EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES FROM METEOSAT-8 PORTRAY A LOW-AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP IN THE VICINITY JUSTIFIES THIS POSITION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE ATLC TROPICAL WAVES HAS SHORTENED CONSIDERABLY...AND THE NEXT WAVE IS ONLY ABOUT 500 NM TO THE W OF THIS WAVE...
...A SIGNIFICANT
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL TURNING...FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 49W-55W...
CARIBBEAN...edited~danielw
THE MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN PLAGUING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. FORTUNATELY A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE REMAINED OVER WATER...BUT THE COPIOUS PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVECTED OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HAS CAUSED PROLIFIC RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND FLOODING PROBLEMS. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 11 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS ESPECIALLY ON THE S SIDE OF PUERTO RICO WHERE THE SWLY FLOW IS IMPINGING ON THE MOUNTAINS.
the Caribbean section of the TWD is a must read, if you are in the Greater Antilles...including Jamaica and Grand Cayman. Extensive discussion on the System presently over the Area. Use the link below, or scroll to the top of this post.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/122338.shtml?
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 13 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: Mostly Quiet in the Atlantic
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Again , watch the western Caribbean for development next week. several of the CMC ensembles and a few of the GFS are showing development south of Cuba heading toward the Florida peninsula/Eastern GOM, and a few over the Bahamas. The 12Z EC also shows a closed low in the western Caribbean next week. Something's up with that, so as we get closer to next week, we'll see if more globals join in. Yes, JB mentioned this on his LR forecast, but I think he's looking at the ridging in the north Atlantic and lower pressures in the SW Atlantic....I'm sure he peeked at the ensembles as well. CHeers!
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 13 2005 04:16 AM |
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Re: Mostly Quiet in the Atlantic
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Will be watching it for development. Still think we may have an Alpha before the season is over with.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 13 2005 12:14 PM |
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Re: Mostly Quiet in the Atlantic
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I know that this is too early to say what that little blob is near the Yucatan. But I do know that I have a new roof, a new air conditioning system, the insurance did not pay for either one, (last years terror) And, my son just put a new roof on his house yesterday. All that is left to produce a hurricane at this point is for us to wash our cars.
Not a very scientific comment but this is October and the trick or treat season is just starting.
| LisaA |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 13 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: Mostly Quiet in the Atlantic
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Oh no... when you guys say mostly quiet in the tropics all heck usually breaks out. I'm just ready for a humidity break and for the wave height and rips to chill out - I'm trying to learn how to surf.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 13 2005 09:44 PM |
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Re: Mostly Quiet in the Atlantic
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E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE REPOSITIONED ALONG 27W/28W S OF 14N MOVING
W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS GOTTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-DEFINED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ON THE
N AND E SIDE. THERE IS EVEN SOME EVIDENCE OF A BROAD LOW
FORMING NEAR 10N. SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SEEMS POSSIBLE
WITH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NOT ALL THAT UNFAVORABLE... THOUGH IT IS
GETTING LATE TO HAVE SOMETHING FORM IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN
24W-31W.
Check this out. If this system did get going, I wonder if it could make it over to our side of the Atlantic as a storm. It`s been a weird year so far, anything could happen........Maybe one of the METS can fill us in on any possibilities......Weatherchef
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 13 2005 11:00 PM |
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devil's advocate
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a few comments:
trouble continues in the northeast. another significant low has formed in the tropical moisture train from the caribbean to bermuda to new england--this one is moving towards the new jersey coast and should cross tomorrow morning. another inch to few inches of rain probably involved with this one, and more on the way. the upper low that is funneling it all around is west of bermuda now... another impulse is coming up east of bermuda and should turn northwest as it rounds it... this is likely the feature that should deepen into the large gale center depicted moving into the gulf of maine/canadian maritimes over the weekend.
models still sketchy about caribbean development though the overall pattern will be modestly supportive once the upper trough loses its influence. there is still a large area of turning under enough shear to cap it southeast of jamaica.. and another small low pressure that has formed in the windward passage and is now moving westward just south of eastern cuba. these features should persist and may try something when the shear pattern begins to slacken up.
east atlantic wave of note out in the cape verde region, but it's pretty much too late to spawn a system out there... and everything this year that has been a successful tropical cyclone has formed further west or not really deepened until west of 50-60w. if it were to organize rapidly it might have a brief life, but doubtful anything can get going.
there's actually a small disturbance of note in the eastpac near 10/100. if this were to develop it would agitate the atlantic shear pattern and probably signal more atlantic activity... worth note for that reason even though mjo state dictates not much should happen for the next 2 weeks or so.
HF 2300z13october
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 13 2005 11:35 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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After losing the closed low over the western Caribbean yesterday, the 12Z Euro seems to be getting a bit more bullish on developmentnext week, showing a deepening low just to the south of west central Cuba. GFS and CMC ensembles have more members jumping on to varying degrees. Definitely something to watch for folks in the E. GOM and east coast later next week. Heavy rains in Melbourne FL today. Don't need anymore right now. Cheers!!
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 13 2005 11:53 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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And here I was, watching the forum for the last couple of days thinking we'd seen an abrupt end to the season. No such luck eh?
BTW, for those of you that downloaded my Google Earth tracking files and had no sucess, I'm pleased to say that I have corrected the error ( Hurricane Stan only for the moment ) and that the latest archive should now work correctly.
Sorry for the mistake
| La Nimo |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 01:21 AM |
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Re: devil's advocate *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Don't make comments like this, La Nimo. Your attitude is not acceptable. -HF
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 01:43 AM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Deleted by damejune2
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 02:09 AM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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We mustn't forget...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE... ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Can we get this tropical season to bat the cycle? I think all we need is a Cape Verde storm to have had this season officially prolific in all sectors. Vince only frosts the amazement - though I like the "cool core hurricane" analogy...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 03:21 AM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Quote:
I think all we need is a Cape Verde storm to have had this season officially prolific in all sectors.
We already have.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 03:23 AM |
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Re: devil's advocate *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 03:33 AM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Quote:
when and where?
Well, Emily, and even though Dennis formed just inside the Carribean, wondering if Dennis can also be considered a Cape Verde storm.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 03:45 AM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Yeah, you know - that brings up a good question... Unless the any given tropical cyclone in question develops off the tail end of a frontal drape, or perhaps even rarer, an upper level low that bores its way to the surface and transitions, they all come off of waves from Africa. Which therein one must ask, 'aren't they all Cape Verde'.
May be some philosophy to iron out there - i don't know - but I think for the point at hand, the systems that did develop out there, weren't they really pretty weak before getting to 50W?? When I think of a "solid Cape Verde" storm, I want to harken to 2004; i.e., Isabel and the like - yeah know? Those were definitely intense and highly evolved way the heck out there; more like they came off Africa and didn't waste any time. This year, if I amy quote Dr. Gray, "They've all been Bahama bombers"... I think there are others who feel as I do, that true-ish Cape Verde season this has not been. However, there have been systems that did evolve well enough E of of the Islands...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 03:55 AM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Well a Cape Verde develops right off Cape Verde...technically...but also considered one if it develops somewhere in the Atlantic.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 05:46 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Yikes...we're in the middle of the October upswing in activity and no posts today! Well, here's one...looks like the activity near Jamaica is picking up:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 06:42 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Buiy 42058 to the SE of that system near Jamaica reported sustained winds out of the SSW of around 20 knots last hour, but that station reported similar wind speeds aroundt this time yesterday as well. Considering that it does not even have an Invest classification yet, NHC must not be overly concerned at this time, though there was a mention of a possible recon mission on Sunday in the recon POD. There is definitely a broad low pressure system down there, but it is tough to make out any well-defined LLC. If there is one, it appears to currently be over the island of Jamaica right now.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 06:59 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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There is an invest on this system 98L...
Dave
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 07:14 PM |
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i keep getting site down
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Kept checking it this morning to see if they would put up an invest.
Maybe in a while will be working. All I get is: Hardware Failure
Sorry, but we are experiencing some hardware difficulties. We are working to restore service as soon as possible.
Thanks for the heads up, will keep checking it.
Bobbi
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 07:19 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Yup, the Navy site has been down but they just put 98L up on the back up site. I'll tell ya, the Navy somehow always gets their sat pics to make the systems look more defined then they really are.
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 07:25 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Inital plots are up for 98L on the South Florida Water Management site. Fair chance for this to develop although the computer models differ dramatically in its track.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 07:27 PM |
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98L
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Thanks for the correction/update... I couldn't find anything on the Navy site or any model output for it, so I assumed it had not been "invest-ed" yet. They actually did do a SHIPS run in the last hour or so. The output suggests a generally favorable environment until around 72 hours. Track forecasts mostly suggest a very slow W or WNW movement:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_98.gif
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 07:28 PM |
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thanks for link to back up site *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Please read the site Rules (see above) and use the PM capability for posts like this.
ED
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 07:52 PM |
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Re: 98L
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Looks like we have a tropical depression already for 98L. The NHC indicates a 1006 mb low and there is heavy convection firing around the center - just probably waiting for a plane to confirm it. This looks like it has the potential to be a huge storm with low shear and mid-80s SSTs in the western Carribean. Global models generally drfit it W-NW for the next 4-5 days - hope we don't get another "Mitch" explosion with likely to be Wilma. Certainly bears watching especially for west coast of FL residents since climatology would track the system N-NE into the eastern GOM. However, if High Pressure remains strong over the SE states, it could be a central america threat too. Just have to wait & see - looks like we'll at least tie 1933 with 21 named storms for the most ever this never-ending year.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 07:59 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Some other models, one of which goes over S. FL.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 08:19 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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Looking at some of the longer-range models, it does not appear that the weather pattern would favor much northward movement (if it develops) until the 4-5 day time range or longer. If it moves as slowly as some of the models indicate, it may still be around to pose a threat to the U.S. by then, but it could easily have moved into Mexico or Central America by that timeframe.
The convection still isn't very well organized right now. Given its proximity to Jamaica and slow movement, it still may take awhile for it to become more organized, if it does at all. It definitely appears to have a chance, though.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 08:33 PM |
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Re: devil's advocate
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appears there is no radar picture for jamica on the internet right now, but i did find this:
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/forecast.asp -jamica
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES - cuba
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 09:09 PM |
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The latest TWO
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From the latest TWO (5:30 pm ET issuance):
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO POSSIBLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
OR ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... CUBA... AND THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 10:36 PM |
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Re: 98L
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12Z Euro brings the system to the Yuc Straits in 168 hrs as a hurricane or stong tropical storm. Other globals such as NOGAPS and UKMET drift it slowly west toward the Yuc Pen. So far, the global models show the Bermuda Ridge re-establishing a summer-like position in 4-5 days with no troughs intruding into the SE US. I dont expect a northerly turn anytime soon so it should intensify into a hurricane with time. The most critical timing will be in the 5-7 day out period with this storm likely to be in the western Caribbean, Yuc Straits, or southern GOM. Any trough digging toward the Gulf Coast would then turn it N and then NE. Odds are this time of year we would see a trough by 7 days, although this has been a strange year with the Bermuda High being exceptionally strong over the SE.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...5101412!!!step/
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 14 2005 11:11 PM |
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Re: 98L
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Quote:
12Z Euro brings the system to the Yuc Straits in 168 hrs as a hurricane or stong tropical storm. Other globals such as NOGAPS and UKMET drift it slowly west toward the Yuc Pen. So far, the global models show the Bermuda Ridge re-establishing a summer-like position in 4-5 days with no troughs intruding into the SE US. I dont expect a northerly turn anytime soon so it should intensify into a hurricane with time. The most critical timing will be in the 5-7 day out period with this storm likely to be in the western Caribbean, Yuc Straits, or southern GOM. Any trough digging toward the Gulf Coast would then turn it N and then NE. Odds are this time of year we would see a trough by 7 days, although this has been a strange year with the Bermuda High being exceptionally strong over the SE.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...5101412!!!step/
I agree with this. And also this could be another Ivan track IF there is a trough to pull it N then NNE. If not then might be another Mexico hit IF it develops. They are forecasting the High sitting over Fl to move W into Tx. So for the next few days its going to get interesting once again.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: 98L
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GFDL has 98L at a Cat 4 in 4 days... Hmmmm
Dave
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: 98L
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Actually, if you go by pressure, the 18Z GFDL makes 98L a cat 5 hurricane, with the pressure bottoming out at 910 mb in 114 hours. It also drifts the system WSW towards Honduras, though it keeps it offshore through 126 hours and starts to nudge it more to the NW at the end of the forecast period. The GFDL must be having a Mitch flashback.
The 00Z SHIPS run shows much more modest strengthening and the track models in the SHIPS output mostly show a W then WSW drift through 120 hours.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 03:39 AM |
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Re: 98L
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Our local meterologist said this might be a threat to Florida down the road. Any thoughts on that? Also, on possible
development is a hurricane likely? Looks like we may get a Wilma out of this one. Would be neat if Alpha is used this season also
since that has never happened. I mentioned to my husband tonight that three weeks ago at this time weather here was going
downhill. Of course, we weren't here at that time. Time sure passes fast. Seems a lot of records have been set this season.
It will be interesting to see when all the information is in concerning the different storms what records were set this year.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 03:46 AM |
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Re: 98L
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Long term models show 98L going into Mex or Tx.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 03:59 AM |
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Re: 98L
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I can tell here that the storm is already effecting animal life. The ants have been steadily building antbeds everywhere and the domestic animals have been very busy and territorial.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:42 AM |
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Re: 98L
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i hope the ukm is not on to something.... looks like the high will build across the atlantic and looks to me, how far west will it stretch over florida/se us, is the big question?..... saw the CMC takes up to the east of florida now.... not buying that just yet....GFS and GFDL.... go toward the westsouthwest, then possibly back to the nw.....i think conditions appear good for rapid intensification.... ... and i wouldn't be susprised if we have a TD at 5am..... or a TS at 11am.....not doub't that will have a named storm i think by afternoon..... (think a record will be set today).......
ukm 2005101500
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:14 AM |
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Re: 98L
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Quote:
i hope the ukm is not on to something.... looks like the high will build across the atlantic and looks to me, how far west will it stretch over florida/se us, is the big question?..... saw the CMC takes up to the east of florida now.... not buying that just yet....GFS and GFDL.... go toward the westsouthwest, then possibly back to the nw.....i think conditions appear good for rapid intensification.... ... and i wouldn't be susprised if we have a TD at 5am..... or a TS at 11am.....not doub't that will have a named storm i think by afternoon..... (think a record will be set today).......
ukm 2005101500
The UKMET is taking it simular to what the GFDL is taking it too. The GFDL takes it too 144K but the SHIPS model only takes it too 61K. Big difference in the intensity. But we will see when it becomes a depression and see what they are grabbing hold onto then. GFDL
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:16 AM |
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Re: 98L
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Well whatever 98L ends up doing over the next week or so at least I won't have to keep watching the same images between 03:45 and 05:45 (UTC). What can I say? I'm addicted. And man it's been a long two months.
GOES-12 and 10 Quick Reference Fall 2005 Eclipse Charts:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/goes-eclipse.html
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:38 AM |
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Re: 98L
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Quote:Thanks for the link. So then does 144K (times 1.152) translate to 166mph... making the projected storm a Category 5... with winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr)?
The UKMET is taking it similar to what the GFDL is taking it too. The GFDL takes it too 144K but the SHIPS model only takes it too 61K. Big difference in the intensity. But we will see when it becomes a depression and see what they are grabbing hold onto then. GFDL
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 10:17 AM |
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Re: 98L
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Quote:Quote:Thanks for the link. So then does 144K (times 1.152) translate to 166mph... making the projected storm a Category 5... with winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr)?
The UKMET is taking it similar to what the GFDL is taking it too. The GFDL takes it too 144K but the SHIPS model only takes it too 61K. Big difference in the intensity. But we will see when it becomes a depression and see what they are grabbing hold onto then. GFDL
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
Yup and 910mb = 26.88in. So a very high cat 5 hurricane IF it pans out l ike the GFDL says. And it has done very well this year as far as track and intensity. But I will go in the middle with the SHIPS model that brings it to 61K which sond more right anyways.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 12:18 PM |
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Re: 98L
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15/1145 UTC 17.7N 77.1W T1.5/1.5 98
15/0545 UTC 18.4N 77.9W OVERLAND 98
14/2345 UTC 18.4N 77.6W OVERLAND 98
14/1745 UTC 18.4N 77.1W OVERLAND 90
T-Number are getting up there should se a depression by the afternoon Clark/ any other Met what do you think.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 01:17 PM |
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Re: 98L
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It looks to me that the 06Z run of the GFDL hooks the storm northward in the last couple frames. From that view, it looks like this thing could go an unexpected direction - so everyone better watch this system.
GFDL has, however, dropped off in intensity. It's only showing Cat 3 now...as if Cat 3 was something we should say "only" about. Given that the GFDL is a fickle intensity model, and that the runs aren't dissipating this storm, I think we've got another potentially major system on our hands.
--RC
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 01:18 PM |
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Re: 98L
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Oh, note: New thread for us to play in!
