MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:30 AM |
Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Tropical Depression 24 has become Tropical Storm Wilma. The 21st named storm. This is the highest the modern naming convention has reached to, and ties the 1933 record of number of tropical storms for the year. There exist no more 2005 names for the Atlantic basin.
Wilma's track has shifted more westward, and the official track calls for it to clip the Yucatan. Trends have been toward the west, so at the moment I still think a more westward motion is the most likely, generally falling along the National Hurricane Center's track.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
There may be an eventual turn north, so those along the gulf will want to keep a watch on it. But for now, discussing landfall in any particular United States location is premature. I'm not sold on the ridge breaking down enough for it to move much north at all, at least in the next several days.
IF you go by models, only one major model suggests a northward motion, and this is what concerns me for the US, but most of the models continue it westward.
At this time it seems prudent that we watch it, but I'd imagine those on the Yucatan should be watching it more. I'm in the camp that thinks it will stay further south and west, but it is still vital to watch trends over time. We have time to watch and prepare if something were to occur.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Wilma
Animated Model Plot of Wilma
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:54 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
IF you go by models, only one major model suggests a northward motion, and this is what concerns me for the US, but most of the models continue it westward.
Both the 06Z GFS and the 00Z CMC are showing a northward movement between the Yucatan and Cuba followed by a hook east into FL. The rest of the models show Wilma either clipping the tip of the Yucatan of fully impacting the Yucatan. GFDL is calling for possibly a Cat 4 again, though not even sustaining that until the Yucatan. I suspect now that we have a TS, we'll get better model initialization and we might start to see some more reliable (and less divergent) tracks coming out.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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What concerns me most this a.m. is the GFDL. This model has been the outlier all season but has tended to be rather reliable. I am afraid the westward motion will change now with better initialization.... we shall see.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Well.... this is interesting! The newest GFDL appears to have shifted back toward the western tip of Cuba, and the LBAR is even further east, calling for Wilma to cross near Havana (I think that's where Havana is), and then move across the peninsula south of Laka Okechobe(sp?). These models make the NHC forecast seem much more reasonable than the earlier runs did (which were all west of the NHC forecast)... but they also bring to light the fact that we just don't know this far out where Wilma is going to go.
Edit: I just saw others posting while I was typing the above.
Random: The models were in very good agreement earlier, but now the latest runs seem to diverge again - or maybe they've just shifted back to the east and the models that are showing a Yucatan landfall have not been updated yet (I know these models are older runs than the current GFDL and LBAR, but don't know when they will be updated).
It could be yet another frustrating week along the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Edit 2: WU has updated the GFS, which now calls for a turn to the north and eventually NNE, looks like the Big Bend or south of there longer-term.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Actually there are three that call for it moving into the GOM. THe 6Z GFS now has it crossing west central Florida as well as the CMC. The Euro also moves it into the southern GOM after brusing it into the Cozumel. The NOGAPS and UKMET have the western solution across the Yucatan. The NOGAPS doesn't strengthen Wilma much at all, but it hasn't since Friday. So the Camp is split down the middle. Problem is IMO, its a slow mover, and if it waits in the GOM for a shortwave to pick it up it could be a problem. But this is all speculation. For all we know it could plow into Honduras and fizzle as a TS. Future runs will vaisilate back and forth. We'll wait and see. Cheers!!
You're right; the 6Z GFDL has shifted right; further right than the NHC path, and much quicker.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:26 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Well there goes the impressive convection off to the south again. At first glance it looked like our errant toddler of a TS had decided to make a beeline for Nicaragua when most of us weren't watching, but looking at the circulation and then the upper level winds for the last 24 hrs convinced me she is still going nowhere. The dry air has impinged on the outflow to the NW, but the boundary between them is not moving, and there is still good outflow. I have to admit this really is painfully slow development; patience is still the order of the day. So, we'll have to see what another 24-48 hours brings.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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[Brought forward from previous thread}
So, TD24 finally blossoms into Tropical Storm Wilma. It's taken what seems like an age since the NHC classified her as a TD and for a while it looked like she was stagnating. I've seen the model runs like everyone else and it appears to me now that the only thing that's predictable about a tropical system is it's unpredictability. NHC now has it moving over the Yucatan and into the GOM but, who knows really, Wilma may decide to take a turn to the west and move over central America into the Pacific. We'll have to give her more time before she truly makes her intentions known.
Just my slant on things.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Wilma another erratic and frustrating storm to forecast.
It is a bit comforting to see the modeling continue to move Westward but
how much faith can we really put into the models when the storm is
moving so slowly.
It's going to be a wait and see event all week.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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It seems all the models are moving north instead of west now. What causes the models to swing so quickly with such a slow moving storm?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Isn't it true that landfall connot be accurately predicted more than a couple of days out? It is important not to concentrate
on the black line but look at the cone. I have heard several people here complain about the forecast of Rita's track and I
have tried explain that two days out they were saying our area. You can't expect
them to know five days out. I think the problem is the media and the hype with the big storms.
But we were in the cone for days. I thought they did a good job.
Wilma looks like she may be tougher to forecast but of course the Gulf coast should keep an eye on her just in case. I was hoping we
would be through with the big storms and just reach Alpha with small ones (to set a record). But of course, Wilma may decide
not to become a hurricane. We will just have to wait and see. By the way, does anyone think this will be the last one or do ya'll
think there will be an Alpha?
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:02 PM |
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Could Wilma continue heading south or southwest and not make another turn, methinks she could. Even if she turns west in the next 12 hours I think she would be catching land which would knock her out somewhat.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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This is only what I've heard on our local news, but they seem to be valid reasons: 1) the HP system in the GoM is expected to move westward in a couple of days. I believe this feature is what is (for now) keeping Wilma from moving anywhere. Once this system retreats westward, it will allow Wilma to move in a general northerly direction.
2) There is a cold front coming down from the Plains that could pick up Wilma once she starts moving more northward and depending on where Wilma is and when it picks it up, will probably be where Wilma eventually ends up.
The "where" cannot be answered right now, though. I would say that everyone from Florida to N.O. needs to be paying attention to this storm. I do know that our local weather stations are a bit more concerned with this storm *at this time* based on these two weather features.
Hope that helps and hope that I explained things correctly! If not, anyone can feel free to correct my post!
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:16 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Just think of Wilma as a self propelled hot air vaccuum. She will follow the hot temperatures, and the path of least resistance. If you figure where that is, you will know where she is going. If she finds some deep warm eddies she will take her time over them. She will be the clean up person for this season and will be finishing off all the spots that the other storms did not get.,
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:20 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
Isn't it true that landfall connot be accurately predicted more than a couple of days out?
yes it is, asking over and over again for the mets to give a landfall location is ridiculous, but some do it anyway.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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About the Models...
The 00z and the 6z, etc.. are those different run times?
Also, I see that the GFS 00z Had the storm West and the GFS 6Z has a more W and then NE Component taking it into the West Coast of Florida. So I guess each run can be pretty different from the one prior.
Thanks for all of the knowledge
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I have the most faith in the GFDL model,it has been very good in the past.It is now well east of the NHC track.Again this all comes down to timing of different factors.The more time that it does not go west,will mean a more east track down the road.I agree that all of the state of Florida and points west need to watch this one close,as it looks like it could be a major cane.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:30 PM |
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How true that is! If you think about, we really don't know where it will make landfall UNTIL it actually MAKES landfall. Yes, of course, the closer a storm gets to making landfall, the narrower the cone gets....but it has not been unusual for a storm to make landfall 50 miles to the left or right just as it goes in.
We'll have to be patient with this one. There is no way that anyone can predict where this thing will go right now. Just be prepared and you'll be okay.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Maybe I'm missing something but where is the MM5 grid - All I get is blue/black garbage???
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Hey Coll, you are right, looking at all the long range models, CMC, GFDL, and GFS all seem to pretty tight with their track (and it's early) and NOGAPS and UKM seem to take a similar path. It is and will be a wait and see probably till tomorrow for more consensus and even then as you said as we had seen with Charley, anything can change in a hurry.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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MM5 has been this way for better than a week now???
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Interesting to see the various GFS-based models shift way back to the right in the 06Z runs. The 12Z runs will be interesting to view. The last SHIPS run is more aggressive with intensity, taking the storm up to 90 knots in 96 hours. The fact that Wilma finally strengthened a little probably has something to do with that... it seems like recent intensity change is one of the inputs to that model, based on how it behaves.
The fact that Wilma is drifting south now, rather than west, could make a big difference in the eventual path. If that persists for any length of time, that means the system will potentially be further removed from any weak westerly steering current that may try to develop to its north in the near-term, so it will be further east when the stronger northerly steering current is expected to develop in a few days. Of course, if it gets far enough south, it may end up getting too far south to be picked up and instead drift around for awhile until likely impacting Central America at some point. I don't know of any models that have a solution along those lines, but when there is quite a bit of model divergence in track, you shouldn't throw out the persistence (extrapolated) track out of hand.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:36 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I know this ties the record set in 1933. But does anyone know if Wilma formed earlier in the season than the 21st storm in 1933?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Changed my mind a bit since my earlier post. Looking at the larger sat image of the Caribbean and Western ATL instead of the floater, it is easy to see now that the ridging has moved a little further SE and the boundary is more well-defined, so that may factor into the movement. I don't think the high in the GOM has moved significantly though. At first I thought it had tucked itself a little into the BOC and then moved a little bit to the east, but now I can't that clearly. Looking at the EastPac sat was helpful in seeing that it is just staying put. Also, I think the inertia of the strong convection to the SSW, which is now getting sheared to the SW (she moved to an area with more shear), was possibly pulling Wilma a bit to the SW in lieu of strong steering currents.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:54 PM |
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Wilma has formed earlier than the 21st in 1933, the 21st in 1933 formed on 11-15 and lasted through 11-17. It formed along Lat 11.9N Lon 79.8W and ended @ Lat 12.3N Lon 85.2W
| Steeler Fan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Although someone beat me to the info. on the last storm of 1933, the following is a link to an article showing all the 1933 storms, along with tracking maps of each storm, in case you are interested...
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/sun-sentinel/hurricane/at1933.asp
Based on how late that season continued to produce storms, we are not out of the woods by any stretch at this date.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Here's a little info from the HPC:
"ENOUGH OF A TROUGH EXISTS IN THE OH VLY
FROM DAY 5 ONWARD TO ALLOW WILMA TO RECURVE ALONG A CLIMO TRACK
ACRS THE FL PENINSULA."
Yuck, not what I want to hear right now. I want this season to be over.
Jackie
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:18 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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T'Bird, I think you meant to the right. The GFS 6z models, specifically the GFDL and the GFS, have shifted to the right. One thing to be aware of. At this time of year storms, if intensifying far enuf south early in the forecast period and moving slowly, can build a heat ridge to the north that forces them westward. This was true with Mitch and Keith (although Mitch had two strong ridges that combined north of him from the east and west). If this type of ridge pumps up, you won'ts see Wilma get further north than 20 degrees. Doubtful, but it can happen. Anyhow, 11 am should be out now, Cheers!! BTW Margie, I was watching the ridge and thought it was backing into the BOC also. But its moving quite slowly if at all.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:Quote:
IF you go by models, only one major model suggests a northward motion, and this is what concerns me for the US, but most of the models continue it westward.
Both the 06Z GFS and the 00Z CMC are showing a northward movement between the Yucatan and Cuba followed by a hook east into FL. The rest of the models show Wilma either clipping the tip of the Yucatan of fully impacting the Yucatan. GFDL is calling for possibly a Cat 4 again, though not even sustaining that until the Yucatan. I suspect now that we have a TS, we'll get better model initialization and we might start to see some more reliable (and less divergent) tracks coming out.
Amen!
I wrote an extensive post about this very subject matter late last night...
First off, the GFDL is parameterized off the GFS data so the tandem motion once one is established is not that surprising – just btw. They do vary some (usually) but in the long run, the GFDL and the GFS will tend to shake hands over TS motions, more frequently then either would agree with a different model group altogether.
Secondly, the right shift was entirely expected; moreover, it was expected to take place when Wilma finally established a better physical presents in the area, then subsequently as an interaction with the westerlies took place, a more realistic impression of events would unfold. The suspicion was that the models just had too weak of a system to deal with prior, so they shallowed her out – summarily inducing telemetry based on a ‘none-wilma’ environmental flow. That flow indeed would be across the Yucatan Peninsula in such a case, so naturally, seeing the even more westerly 00z GFS (which still did not have a solid fix in initialization or parametrics at that time) made a lot of sense.. But, at 06z we have a deeper initialization, more solid presentation and boom – the models are presto-wizzo angst for the NE Gulf again.
…The million dollar question for me is, ‘are there 06z runs of the ECM, UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC, SHIPS…etc?’ I imagine there are, ‘but are they available to the public’? If they are, I don’t know where to find them. My hunch is that these other models will begin shifting right at 12z – should be coming out shortly.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:30 PM |
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Steve, you are correct... I meant to say to the right, though I managed to actually say completely the opposite of what I meant. I corrected the original post to avoid any further confusion.
I am also reminded of Mitch with this storm. As I recall, at least some models kept insisting that Mitch would take a turn to the N and NE, but it never happened. Whether or not Wilma becomes strong enough to significantly impact the environmental steering currents remains to be seen. Also, having a large, cutoff upper low over the SW U.S. increases the uncertainty in the eventual synoptic pattern, since models can have difficulty with the movement and intensity of such features after they cutoff from the main flow.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:48 PM |
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The NHC wrote: WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO"
Based upon this, there maybe an adjustment of the GFS and GFDL in the 12Z. So I believe these model runs will be more telling then the 06Z and maybe more similiar to the previous 00Z runs. So in my opinion, I would probably look for a slightly change in the GFDL and GFS to the west or left. It will be interesting to say the least. I think these runs should be out pretty soon..
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
The NHC wrote: WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO"
Based upon this, there maybe an adjustment of the GFS and GFDL in the 12Z. So I believe these model runs will be more telling then the 06Z and maybe more similiar to the previous 00Z runs. So in my opinion, I would probably look for a slightly change in the GFDL and GFS to the west or left. It will be interesting to say the least. I think these runs should be out pretty soon..
Do you really tnink so? Do you think that a all of 40naut miles is significant enough to alter a track guidance by as much as 400 miles by day 6? Granted, small shifts initially can have a profound affect out in time, but the synoptics of the region do not support a w motion, provided Wilma is a deeper system. We'll see...
Also, this thing is incorporating a very large circumvellate... cu between the Caymans and Cuba are moving curvi-linearly within... This thing has a lot of room of profound intensification.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I'm confused because I thought you said the other day that you are a meteorologist.... how can that be but you dont know about the different models, where to find them and when they run? Just curious....
But to answer, no the others dont run every 6 hours that I know of... you will have to wait for the 12z runs which come out at varying times this afternoon.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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The 12Z GFS has shifted back to the left (and this time I really mean left) through 84 hours, and appears to be just to the right of the official track, bringing the system into the Yucutan Channel just east of the peninsula. I have not seen anything past 84 hours from the 12Z run yet.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:20 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Don't see any cases here over the last 36 hours that this system WILL NOT recurve...so if there is such a case I would like to hear that one...The first ridge will erode to the SW and then the replacement ridge, and weaker ridge will be moved east by the next trough which is pretty vigorous over the SW CONUS now..that will creat the weakness to the NE and recurvature...this is the prevailing understanding.
So If there is a case for the recurvature not occuring please let us know...
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:24 PM |
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Sorry Thunderbird, but I do not see that in the GFS I am looking at. I am at day 5 of the 12Z and do not see it in the Bay of Campeche. I do not see such a drastic change as you.. I am not sure what you are looking at ?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:27 PM |
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_s_loop.shtml
here is a link for the 12z gfs for saturday... i dont see the BOC thing either
At the end of the run, the gfs shows Wilma moving NE
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:30 PM |
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Mitch, although a mere shadow of itself did cross the peninsula eventually ( Naples area) over a week after it made landfall and reaped havoc in C.A. But the point is it did go north and NE eventually.
However the comparisom to Mitch is not otherwise inappropriate.
This system is now involving a huge area under its circulation and the wrapping of the moisutre east of the center should take only a matter of hours now...look for rapid intensification on Tuesday, then it will begin to assert itself on the surrounding environment a little more and we should see more consistency in the forecast models I think.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:32 PM |
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I don't think T'Bird said BOC, he said just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, which is what the 12z gfs shows at 84.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:35 PM |
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I think we have a misunderstanding... the 12Z GFS brings Wilma into the Yucutan Channel between the Yucutan peninsula and Cuba, with the center coming close to but staying just east of the Yucutan peninsula. It never goes into the Bay of Campeche.
After about 90 hours, Wilma makes a hard right turn in the 12Z GFS (sharper than the previous run), passes very close to Key West at around 138 hours, and then moves into the Everglades region of SW Florida, passing over the Miami area before heading into the Atlantic at about 150 hours.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:39 PM |
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Main player will be the Nogaps and GFDL.....CMC and GFS jumps around alot,,,,UKMET isnt that bad...Anyways NOAA has a plane going to sample the enviroment later Tuesday...hopefully for the 0Z Weds runs of the models....also by then we will also see if a system does form over the plains and heads towards the great lakes with a cold front heading down into the Northern Gulf coast for the weekend,.,..if so then by weds sometime we will know if its for florida,, but of course we wont know for sure where exactly it will make landfall,,,,,,
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:41 PM |
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SE Drift? and 10N 50W?
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Two things....
First, Wilma appears to be drifting South *east* which could be a symptom of the building convection around the LLC. I'm guessing it'll eventuall resume a WNW or NW motion in the next 24 hours, but wherever it goes... it'll go there painfully slow.
Second, not a major issue, but I'm peeking at the feature at 10N 50W. It's probably got almost no chance, but it's been presistant for a while, and you never know in this season.
-Mark
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:44 PM |
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Sorry, I believe I misinterpreted your email. Easy to do as I am multitasking here with work. Ahh still do not like the scenario that is being setup. Thank goodness it is in the long range forecast, and that the forecast track will adjust in time. Hopefully away from Central Florida.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:52 PM |
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OK ,,now the Nogaps ( very reliable model )has the system moving inline with the GFS but maybe slightly faster meaning,,slightly further up the coast near Sarasota for landfall on Saturday night as a CAT 3...this is a significant jump...but again like I said before,,,the runs will change and they could move again....right now I agree that there will be a strong mid-level low over the great lakes this weekend.,,,,so I dont see this going any further N then Florida (as of now) but until this thing starts its NW course,,it could still just meander down there.
Anyways the threat to florida has now greatly increased with the NOGAPS shifting greatly to the east. We wont know for sure on anything until weds.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:55 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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12z GFS is now available through 7 days -- clips the NE corner of the Yucatan, then turns the system hard to the ENE, passing just north of Key West and ultimately over Miami, then up the coast between the Outer Banks & Bermuda. It digs a very, very sharp trough in over the upper midwest & Ohio River valley, leading to the system being captured and accelerating to the E & NE. This is still one from Louisiana on eastward with plenty of time to watch it before pinning down where it may go in the Gulf.
ECMWF is run every 6hr, but most of their output is not publicly available in the first place. The CMC is run every 12hr and the UKMET has grids available every 12hr but points available every 6hr.
As an aside, the Orlando Sentinel has started syndicating the main page articles from the CFHC on their weather webpages. For an example, see the right-hand sidebar from http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weat...-home-headlines. Good stuff.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
|
Quote:
The 12Z GFS has shifted back to the left (and this time I really mean left) through 84 hours, and appears to be just to the right of the official track, bringing the system into the Yucutan Channel just east of the peninsula. I have not seen anything past 84 hours from the 12Z run yet.
Hi Thunderbird12,
Actually, the left shift at 84 hours you speak of is still dramatically right of the 00z GFS run, per that same time interval. This is important because the two runs 12z and 06z show a demonstrative trend in the right direction (in general, forecasters like to see two consequtive runs to establish 'trend')
Note 00z GFS fix at 96 hours, centered on 00z Friday is approximately 89W by 17N.
Note 12z GFS fix at 84 hours, centered on 00z Friday is approximately 87W by 22N - which is entering the western side of the Yucatan Channel.
Using the 12z lat/lon differential to the 00z lat/lon for the same time interval, we can use...
c^2 = a^2+b^2
Solving for c, (60naut miles = 1 degree) gives an approximate distance of 325naut miles NE of the 00z run.
Edit -- note that this is not exactly correct. The Earth is spherical and the distance between points of longitude varies to a fair degree based upon latitude; thus, a great circle calculation is needed to find the true distance between two such points -- particularly over such a great discrepancy. For small distances, pythagorean principles work okay, but not as well here. The point is valid, just not the entire workings of getting there. --Clark
That is a huge NE (or right) shift in track... Now, granted, it is left of 06z as you intimate, but in terms of shear magnitude, the 12z left shift between 06z and 12z is far smaller than the demonstrative shift from 00z to 06z was to the NE..
For me, this is likely caused by many of the topics discussed to this point, regarding having an entity with a better physical presents in the model, so a better presentation out in time.
Now....none of this to this point is intended to presuppose any possibility that this could end up left - though personally, I don't believe that will be the case. Additionally, at hour 132, the 12z GFS is landfalling a powerful Wilma seemingly on an opposite telemetry that Rita took across S Florida; which is ironically even more right than the 06z for that same close approximated time interval! Weird ay?
btw: Any affects further up the East Coast is still open to debate in my mind because again....the Operational models seem to be having difficulty handling the amplification of the westerlies in the Ohio Valley by 120 hours. The last 24hours of runs had tended to back off on the amplification aloft, now in this 12z GFS run we've returned to a super deep negative anomaly cutting off and (potentially) veering the components into a deep southerly flow up the Coast... The 12Z GFS 'hints' that this 'could' capture Wilma and accelerator N, but doesn't quite pull that trigger does it... Hmmm... But, that is a really eerie solution because it is 'that' close to phasing Wilma into the overall evolution of this large negative anomaly...
Frankly, i'd love to see that happen wink wink
Actually, that was wrong...My apologies...disregard the paragraph headed with "btw:"...Apparently I stupidly forgot to refresh my images and therefore was unwittingly relying on yesterday 12z data for that paragraph.. But..seeing as I'm on the topic, still, not a certainty this would not affect areas farther N of the East Coast! ...time will tell.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:02 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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This could be the kicker though. The 12Z NOGAPS is now aligned with the 12Z GFS (pretty darn close) and brings the hurricane across south central Florida at 132 hours. Let's see if the 12Z UKMET follows suit.
Didn't see your post scott; but you're right - until it comes NW nothing to worry about.......yet. But the left outlier has changed radically. Not a good sign.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Already got ya in a early post steve....heeheh lets see who gets up the UKmet.....Im a 2-1 favorite....
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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LOL i know,, I do that all the time....miss-see a post.....
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
Although someone beat me to the info. on the last storm of 1933, the following is a link to an article showing all the 1933 storms, along with tracking maps of each storm, in case you are interested.
Is this data accurate? There were no satellites or recon flights back then, so how was this info gathered?
Ship reports?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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...The more models, the better...
The left shifts during yesterday are toppling in the models - evaporating as quickly as they were ever asserted.. Again, this was anticipated.... I only lay mention to 'anticipation' because many of the reasons state previously are not materializing in the model runs, which shows some credence to the intuitive processes of other on this forum - BRAVO!
Correction: "Not" should be "Now"
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:26 PM |
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Good article. I like this part best....
Quote: But Wilma is then expected to re-emerge into the Gulf and could become a threat to the southern U.S. " Usually when a storm gets into the Gulf, it's going to hit somewhere,'' said hurricane center meteorologist Larry Lahiff
what the He..? I could predict that.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/orl-bk-wilma101705,0,2454676.story?coll=orl-home-headlines
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:36 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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slow pokes.
The new Ukmet 12z is out and it shows about the same i think as the other 2.It shows it going over the yuctan then looks like heading for key west or south florida.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
This could be the kicker though. The 12Z NOGAPS is now aligned with the 12Z GFS (pretty darn close) and brings the hurricane across south central Florida at 132 hours. Let's see if the 12Z UKMET follows suit.
Didn't see your post scott; but you're right - until it comes NW nothing to worry about.......yet. But the left outlier has changed radically. Not a good sign.
There something odd about this beast...
evidenced by the ir imagery in motion...there is an odd kind of anticylonic couplet sitting about 50naut miles NNW of the center fix... The cirrus debris in this close by area is rotating clockwise while all h*&! breaks loose just to the S...
It is almost as though a great force came down and sawed a hurricane in half!
Anyway, not sure what is causing this odd bifurcated development.
Also, it looks on vis imagery, especially in the last 2 or 3 frames, as though the 11am fix is off; it loos too far N by ~50naut miles.. Interesting what they say when the recon gets there.. I believe they said there would be one in the are early this afternoon?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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But IMO you can't believe any of them right now till it starts to move north at all which at this time it has not done yet but ill hold with what i said a few days ago.
Ill go by what normally happends this time of year if you look over the past 100 years they turn sharp east which is still what i am thinking.
| Steeler Fan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Below is the link to the graph on file in the "Hurricane History" NHC/TPC Archives area of the official NHC site. The graph of the storms is the same as the previous link, albeit much more difficult to read and not linked to individual storms.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1933.gif
I can't verify the pressures listed in the original link (and NHC's graph doesn't include them, just whether the storm intensified to hurricane status or stayed a tropical storm and the dates it took place). I would say a google search of U.S Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau could propbably verify pressures, as well.
| JonB |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:04 PM |
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Just curious here. Looking at the model runs they are all curving sharply east towards Florida. I live in South Melbourne Beach, FL and I am going away Thursday to Monday. Does anyone have any guesses on what kind of effects we could get here if the current models play out? I am trying to guage how much I should prepare.
Thanks
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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really nobody has a clue on this one yet as the new GDFL now backs off again from the sharp turn.But if and when this gets into the gulf most all right now take it right just how much and when is a guess so what you see posted is really only a guess since today is monday and Saturday is when its suppose to be in the gulf if it gets there.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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The sat images are beginnig to show the erosion of the ridge to the SW on the northern reaches of the circulation. As a result several things are happening: the storm is wrapping the east moisture around better and new convection on the SW is building and holding. More banding is on the west and SW. Strengthing is occurring.
Also the SW motion has been replaced with westerly or even slightly N of due west...
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Jon,
I'm in Melbourne too. Honestly, it's way to early to tell.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:23 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
really nobody has a clue on this one yet as the new GDFL now backs off again from the sharp turn.But if and when this gets into the gulf most all right now take it right just how much and when is a guess so what you see posted is really only a guess since today is monday and Saturday is when its suppose to be in the gulf if it gets there.
I dont know about everyone else but it gets tiring for me to hear you tell everyone on here they are only guessing. I think most people are well educated enuff to know that 5 days out is not certain. You have been making "guesses" that change every time you post as well.
Also I havent noticed your meteological degree posted anywhere.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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The latest SHIPS model (18Z run) has Wilma up to 99 knots in 96 hours, then back down to 90 knots at 120 hours, which would be near landfall time. The initial intensity was set at 45 knots, so NHC appears to be anticipating that Wilma has intensified from the 40 knots on the 11AM advisory.
The initial intensity was set to almost due south (190 degrees) at 3 kts. I am having a hard time making out any motion from the satellite loop myself, since the center is obscured.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I sure didn't think I would be posting in the middle of October. I thought the season would be over but you know what they say . It ain't over till it's over. Anyways wasn't Mitch suppose to head north then it went into Honduras. I don't know if Wilma will even get into the Gulf. The Models don't do such a good job down there in picking up systems. It could easily meander then head into Mexico. Until I see a northward movement I won't believe any model.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Its looking to me like the center is reforming a bit east of the 2pm fix, or the midlevel circulation isn't quite coupled w/ the LLC. Interesting note...as I recall both Katrina and Rita had the same type situation prior to their rapid deepening. They did not quite have their act together but when everything lined up...BOOM. Also noticing a flare of convection to the NW of the center fix. Wilma might be getting herself lined up and ready to go
| gogogabby007 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 07:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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The local weatherman on 107.3 in Pensacola this afternoon said that the path of Wilma would be altered by whether or not a ridge of high pressure above FL weakens. She said if it weakened, it looked like it would come across the Panhandle and if not, Central FL would get the impact. How accurate is this and what is the likelihood of the high breaking down?
Thanks.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 07:16 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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If I had to pinpoint a center, I would also put it a little east (and a little south) of the official center location. We'll find out soon enough, because a plane is in the area and should be in the center of the system in the next 30 minutes or so:
000
URNT11 KNHC 171850
97779 18474 20194 84200 61000 03025 58//8 /8035
RMK AF304 0324A WILMA OB 07
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 07:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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You'd almost expect the coldest tops in IR (the cirrus debris you mention) to move in an anticyclonic fashion, being up near the outflow layer and all with a ridge of high pressure aloft above the storm. That's nothing unexpected or detrimental to the storm. There are some nice low-level outflow boundaries on the north & northeast sides of the storm right now, evidenced on visible imagery, with some gravity waves in the midst of the convection removed to the NE of the storm. Pretty cool to see on vis, even if they are a little hard to pick out from time to time.
Do expect that the center is reforming a bit further south & southeast right now, continuing a trend I've been watching the past few hours on satellite imagery. The warm area developing on IR imagery is just south of where I'd place the center; what appears to be some mid-level dry air is becoming entrained on the west & side quadrants of the storm, somewhat separating the large mass of convection (feeder band) to the south from the main core of the system. Impacts on intensity in the short-term? To be determined...need recon down there to tell us where it's at now strength-wise.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 07:28 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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The last visible gives a fix on the llc, ringed with some convection, at close to 15.9/80.0 or a little SE of the previous as indicated.
If reorganization is underway, then all this discussion of models is quite irrelevant. Today we would have had no real net movement of any significance and a whole day passing in which all the other systems effecting the landfall solution HAVE NOT remained static...all bets are off.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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In all the scramble to track Wilma have they forgotten 16E in the EPac?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html
Looks more than a TD to me.
Oops! Should have checked advisory 12, sorry...
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
You'd almost expect the coldest tops in IR (the cirrus debris you mention) to move in an anticyclonic fashion, being up near the outflow layer and all with a ridge of high pressure aloft above the storm. That's nothing unexpected or detrimental to the storm. There are some nice low-level outflow boundaries on the north & northeast sides of the storm right now, evidenced on visible imagery, with some gravity waves in the midst of the convection removed to the NE of the storm. Pretty cool to see on vis, even if they are a little hard to pick out from time to time.
Do expect that the center is reforming a bit further south & southeast right now, continuing a trend I've been watching the past few hours on satellite imagery. The warm area developing on IR imagery is just south of where I'd place the center; what appears to be some mid-level dry air is becoming entrained on the west & side quadrants of the storm, somewhat separating the large mass of convection (feeder band) to the south from the main core of the system. Impacts on intensity in the short-term? To be determined...need recon down there to tell us where it's at now strength-wise.
Right; I too do not really see where the anticyclonic curl, whether centered in situ Wilma or not, would really serve as detriment.. But it is odd...perhaps a little to see skewness..
I do however see that as a fascinating behavior nonetheless.. I'm also interested in the asymetry of this as a whole. Folks on here have given mention to shearing in the environment but I don't find or see a source based on either my own interprative analysis of available sat, nor based on anything mentioned from HPC. It seems to be this is entirely perturbationally driven by nuances involved with the convection it's self.; maybe dry air involvement as well.
I also took note of the dry air entrainment issue as you say; in fact, there is a large envelopment of dry air that is pretty much butted up against Wilma's general arena of genisis - NW. It will be interesting to see how well she fends this off... As she deepens, she'll be more able to incorporate these drier values by extending her pgf outward, and I suggest that is why you see these initial incursion that you mentioned. Her presentation during the afternoon has overall improved; likely portending a deeper surface pressure and greater ingest pulling in the dry air in question... (5pm may confirm this) This could be a problem for rapid intensification enthusiasts, that she gulps dry air in intervals - but then again, HPC likes the SHIPs compromise over the dreaded GFDL anyway. Of course, passed behavior has demonstrated that sometime dry air on the perimeters fools everyone by becoming less an issue with intensity- a.k.a. Rita. ...Though didn't she subcumb a little bit... She did seem to max out prior to bumping into dry air over the western Gulf - haven't read any follow-up steady on her intensity curve...
Anywho...awesome to see those details in the vis. This has been a great day for observing g-wave phenom, as well as the the outflow, surface and aloft, as well as differentiating cloud structures.... totally cool!
I also agree with the center jump hypothesis.. I mentioned this earlier this morning I believed; the concern at the time being that with such limited convection in the N sector (pretty much as a whole) the circulation field would almost have to repond to where the persistent ascending air was distributed... No trouble believing that, being that it is consistent with understanding.
Lastly...tough to say for sure but I'm suspecting that the diurnal min is about at its vertex for the day.. I'm wondering if the last 3 hours denegration of activity is related to that?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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This is sort of off topic, but I didn’t want to make a whole new thread about it.
‘Gravity waves’… that sounds interesting. I am assuming you are referring to those little radial pulses I keep seeing from the center (?). I just did a search but what I got was a bit over my head, and generally in context with mesoscale systems and the sort, not tropical cyclones. I seem to remember talking about them with Keith before, but I don’t think I understood them then either.
Could you explain their mechanics and function just briefly?
Thanks.
| Gerryla |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:25 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Has anyone seen or heard the latest recon.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Recon Fix
15.83° N 79.87° W
989 Mb on pressure???
that's... a little suprising
ok, so 50Kt winds or will the winds take time to build up?
interesting
-Mark
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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989 mb is lower than expected, though the system does appear to be well organized on satellite, even as the cloud tops have generally warmed (a new burst of convection near the center in the last couple of frames, though). The plane hasn't been it what figures to be the windiest part of the storm, so it will be interesting to see what it finds with time.
The center was probably a little further south than what they thought late last night and early this morning, which would have put it closer to the very deep convection that was around earlier, possibly accounting for the greater deepening than expected.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:32 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Looks like the vortex message suggests presure at 989, but no significant increase in estimated surface winds. The vortex fix was at 15.9/79.9
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
This is sort of off topic, but I didn’t want to make a whole new thread about it.
‘Gravity waves’… that sounds interesting. I am assuming you are referring to those little radial pulses I keep seeing from the center (?). I just did a search but what I got was a bit over my head, and generally in context with mesoscale systems and the sort, not tropical cyclones. I seem to remember talking about them with Keith before, but I don’t think I understood them then either.
Could you explain their mechanics and function just briefly?
Thanks.
"Functionality" may be too complex for this forum. The short and skinny way of saying them, they are oscillations caused by the displacement of an air parcel which is restored to its initial position by gravity. This restoring force is dependent on native conditions to the parcel of air, such as lapse rate and moist adiabatic process for gravity waves born of convective processes, or dry adiabatic for clear are restoring momentum - which I think we all can agree is what takes place in Wilma is convective.
Gravity waves are not just restricted to mesoscale phenomena...though they do tend to exist at the mesoscale. Mid latitude bombogenisis and deep isentropic lift events also have been noted to produce these...and they can a beta-mesoscale, which is darn close to a regional synopsis. That is rarer, however... Mostly they are interesting organized band on clear days, sometimes seen in macro alto-cumulous sheets... Beautiful!! They are often characterized radial configuration emminating outward from the point of origin, which is vertically displaced air. Lee side mountain waves are gravity waves... Actually, so is the wake wave behind a boat in the ocean for that matter...
Is this helpful?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:52 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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The winds could take a while to catch up with the drop in pressure..how many times have we seen that?
Looks like the NHC is starting to believe more and more in those models....take a look at the 5pm track. Hard hook to the right.
Of course, this is all subject to change once RECON gets in there and gets more info to NHC.
I hope.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 08:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Wilma's still bucking the trend and going south..
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 10:20 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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newest recon indicates a ragged eyewall has formed:
October 17, 2005 21:32:50 Zulu
L. OPEN W
M. E05/18/8
RAGGED EYE WALL
15.77° N 79.88°
winds still aren't very high... but it's getting it's act together.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 10:50 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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18Z GFS has shifted back to the right again through 84 hours, with the center of Wilma passing over the western tip of Cuba. After that, the track is similar to the previous run, taking the storm NE over the Keys and south FL.
Exactly how this storm approaches the Gulf (if it does at all) and how quickly it makes a possible turn to the NE will have an impact on its intensity when it potentially threatens Florida. First of all, if it brushes the Yucutan or Cuba, it is more likely to weaken somewhat than if it shoots through the Yucutan channel. If it makes more of a gradual bend to the NE, it will track farther north, spending more time over increasingly cool water in an environment of increasing wind shear. If it makes a sharp turn to the E, it will impact sooner and further south, where the shear will be somewhat less. Occasionally, you will see storms undergo a baroclinically enhanced intensification as they are captured by a mid-level system. Such intensification is usually temporary, but if it makes a quick southern landfall after turning to the NE, that may be a factor as well. Obviously, other factors will have an impact on intensity as well, such as any eyewall-replacement cycles that may occur if the system becomes very strong over the NW Carribbean.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 10:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Where can I find the most recent 18Z GFS. I can only find the 12Z which I found through the link on the front page.
Thanks!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 10:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
newest recon indicates a ragged eyewall has formed:
October 17, 2005 21:32:50 Zulu
L. OPEN W
M. E05/18/8
RAGGED EYE WALL
15.77° N 79.88°
winds still aren't very high... but it's getting it's act together.
At least the pressure has not plummeted - yet anyway. Looking at the latest IR loop, it's not moving east of due south anymore, either. In fact, it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
. In fact, the developing eye (which you can't see on IR) appears midway between the 5pm ET position and the first forecast track position.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:02 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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18z has a simular path on the GFS with the 12z run,,just alittle more E near the western tip of Cuba then across florida near Naples or south of Naples to Broward County then Freeport....... Again this model will change..Main models runs will be 0z weds runs with NOAA data on them and also by Tues night we can see more if she is already moving NW or just meandering off Honduras.
| Goosus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:02 PM |
|
Re: Dry Air
|
Looking at the water vapor loop, there is a huge area of dry air directly to Wilma's north and west.
This hasn't been discussed much here, but I'm assuming the effect of all this dry air is to retard the rapid deepening that everyone keeps predicting.
If and as the storm makes it's predicted turn north, won't it run straight into this dry air mass? Won't that choke further intensification? I can't imagine a hurricane, no matter how strong, can plunge into a dry area of ocean and keep it's intensity, let alone strengthen.
Any thoughts? Is this entire mass of dry air supposed to be gone in a few days?
Water Vapor Loop- North America
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:07 PM |
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Re: Dry Air
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Quote:
If and as the storm makes it's predicted turn north, won't it run straight into this dry air mass? Won't that choke further intensification? I can't imagine a hurricane, no matter how strong, can plunge into a dry area of ocean and keep it's intensity, let alone strengthen.
Any thoughts? Is this entire mass of dry air supposed to be gone in a few days?
If Wilma turns northward (which is still not certain) it will be in response to a trough of low pressure coming down from the plains into the Gulf... that trough won't have dry air in it, but it will have shear, so the net effect will be to retard development in the eastern GOM, which is what is forecast.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Thanks for the info!
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:18 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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From HPC
"ENOUGH OF A TROUGH
EXISTS IN THE OH VLY/EAST FROM DAY 5 /SAT AM/ ONWARD TO ALLOW
WILMA RECURVE ALONG A CLIMO TRACK ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. MOST OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LANDFALL BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND
TAMPA...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TIMING THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH VARIOUS MODELS ONE DAY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE PROGGED
TIME OF LANDFALL. THE LONGER THE SYS TAKES TO ENTER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE FARTHER SOUTH THE POINT OF LANDFALL COULD BE IN THE
FL PENINSULA."
Happy B-day to HF
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
[it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
Well, getting it right once in 48hrs is not bad I suppose..
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:Quote:
[it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
Well, getting it right once in 48hrs is not bad I suppose..
Maybe so. Whether it continues to turn toward the WNW, NW, and ultimately North is another question. The 2315z IR image appears to be misaligned on the NRL floater, or else the system jumped south and significantly west in 30 minutes, which I find hard to believe. SSD floater has not updated with 2315z image yet.
Edit: The new computer model runs are up at WU it appears. BAMM, GFDL, and GFS all show landfall along the west coast of the peninsula, ranging from Tampa to Key West.
Of note: WALA Fox 10 (Mobile) weather guy said of Wilma something like "it's not in our forecast". That's true right now, but it's very disconcerting for a meteorologist to be sounding the "all clear" this early, when lots of things could change.
Edit 2: SSD has now updated with 2315z images and they show no further southward movement, so NRL's image is just misaligned apparently.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:Quote:
newest recon indicates a ragged eyewall has formed:
October 17, 2005 21:32:50 Zulu
L. OPEN W
M. E05/18/8
RAGGED EYE WALL
15.77° N 79.88°
winds still aren't very high... but it's getting it's act together.
At least the pressure has not plummeted - yet anyway. Looking at the latest IR loop, it's not moving east of due south anymore, either. In fact, it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
What's interesting here is that her pressure was 989mb at the 5pm, considerably large drop for day period... They do mention that the environmental pressure is considerably lower than normal, but when the recon says ragged eyewall, almost makes one wonder if the recon did not sample the best part of the circulation... In other words, missed the wind maxim?
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:01 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I know it is still extremely early to ask this, but I will anyway. IF Wilma comes to visit the central/south west coast of Florida, what is our best guess as to the intensity? I am hearing cat 2 locally.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:Quote:
At least the pressure has not plummeted - yet anyway. Looking at the latest IR loop, it's not moving east of due south anymore, either. In fact, it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
What's interesting here is that her pressure was 989mb at the 5pm, considerably large drop for day period... They do mention that the environmental pressure is considerably lower than normal, but when the recon says ragged eyewall, almost makes one wonder if the recon did not sample the best part of the circulation... In other words, missed the wind maxim?
Possible. The 8pm intermediate advisory maintained the pressure as 989 (estimated!) and the winds as 50mph, though. Perhaps the airplane never measured the wind maxim, or perhaps the winds have still not caught up to the pressure. The net movement from 5pm to 8pm was also due south according to the advisories (Current movement is called stationary), which makes no sense looking at the IR loop which shows due west movement, however. Maybe the LLC is not moving but the CDO is moving, which means it is reorganizing internally? Or maybe I'm blind and don't know west from south.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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17/2000edt : Wilma stationary where she was last period
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Hugh, can you answer maddog's question...I gotta run
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:16 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
I know it is still extremely early to ask this, but I will anyway. IF Wilma comes to visit the central/south west coast of Florida, what is our best guess as to the intensity? I am hearing cat 2 locally.
I'm NOT a met, so don't hold me to this, but... best guess.... Cat 2, probably on the order of 100mph. If the storm turns NE, it will be because of the trough, which will bring shear with it, so it's likely that Wilma will be on the downswing as it makes landfall on the peninsula.... IF it makes landfall on the peninsula.
| Ben Wallace |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:38 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I have a question that is kind of off topic how come the trough that steared Charley did not weakened it but instead Charley rapidly intenified where was the shear with that ?
I do think Wilma will reach peak intensity in the Carribean and than weaken as it moves into the Gulf because of shear and slightly cooler waters in the Gulf.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:39 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Right now it just matters on how much shear is in for Wilma once it gets into the gulf,, the shear that will push from W-E will drive her NE or even ENE..... I will say 1 thing, she will pick up speed prior to landfall but when is landfall is the best question cause shes not moving much yet,,,right now it looks like Sunday morning but could be as early as Saturday morning if she begins to move NW on Tuesday. All in all its the development of the system over the plains during the mid week period and how fast the Jet stream pushes this east to pick up Wilma and drive her NE.
Intensity should bring her up to near a Cat 4 by Thurs Night but then weaken some due to shear and also slightly cooler waters (although still 81-83dg) later Friday into Saturday. Landfall in Florida could be from a strong cat 1 to a weak ( although how can anyone really say weak) Cat 3. Now even though that water temp still supports a Hurricane, its less then the ocean heat content of the NW carribean near 84-87dg still.
Anyways Im inline pretty much still with the Nogaps and GFDL 18z run but more then 3 days out is speculation of course.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:44 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Sure is looking due west to me
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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With the models currently coming into agreement with each other, how much difference will the data from the NOAA Jet make, if any?
| cngodles |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:55 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Ok, I was looking at the 1933 Map. I don't see any storms in the middle of the Atlantic. Could they possibly have seen or counted any storms that are comparable to Vince? I'm thinking they had way more than they counted. I can't imagine them having the amount of data we have today.
Thoughts? Comments?
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:59 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Good point...however, the official record is just that...the official record.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:06 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I am not liking the 18Z GFDL
- kinda of a worst-case scenario with landfall near Sarasota 8 AM Sat morning at 125 mph with the storm moving near 18 mph to the NE roughly along I-4 to Daytona Beach. Add the 18 mph forward speed to the 125 mph gives you - well u know what it gives u. This storm could surprise alot of people - if it speeds up like the GFDL shows. I'm not sure I buy the intensity over slighly cooler GOM water (81-82 deg) along with some added shear but could be CAT 2 or weak CAT 3. In any case, much damage to coastal communities and even inland at that fast forward speed (i.e. won't weaken as fast, similar to Charley but much bigger storm).http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Probably not much with this system cause its main steering flow will be from the strong trough of low pressure over the U.S., but it will fly thru the GULF and NW Carribean to see how much of the ridge is intact and/or weakening then what is believed in the models.... another words that data will go into the models and it could help the short term movement of Weds and Thurs before the main trough comes in to push it more rapidly NE friday into saturday.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:08 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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It's difficult to tell if there is any movement right now or not, since the VIS images are no longer available. This is still a tropical storm, so it isn't necessarily a given that the center is anchored in the middle of the convection. In the last hour, it seems to have shrugged off some old convection to the west and redeveloped new convection near the last center fix, so it still may not be moving much at all.
As far as possible intensity for a Florida landfall, the best rule of thumb right now would probably be to expect a system one category less intense than whatever it maxes out as (if it maxes out as cat 4, expect cat 3, maxes out at cat 3, expect cat 2, etc.). There is still some uncertainty there, though... it remains to be seen exactly how much shear will materialize in the Gulf in the path of the storm, assuming it gets there in the first place. Increasing SW flow aloft will not necessarily result in rapidly increasing shear if the storm quickly turns to the NE. The 18Z GFDL run weakens Rita as it passes over western Cuba, but does not weaken it much at all affer that over the Gulf until landfall.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:14 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Remember that the system will be moving almost inline with the shear,,,so that wont weaken it as much as the slightly cooler water temps........Thing is,,,when will Wilma peak out at and where? Thurs night sounds good to me.... then with her eyewall getting sheared over and pressure rises from its lows of Thurs night due to Friday daytime dur, shear and cooler water temps,,,expect anywhere from 20mph-30mph weaker during the day. Friday night she might just hold the intensity when she moves along almost with the shear flow.
I know it might sound confusing to some but everything is speculation,,even in the next 24 hours as she hasnt gone NW yet and isnt forecasted to until tomorrow night. My offical forecast wont be until Weds night.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:25 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
Probably not much with this system cause its main steering flow will be from the strong trough of low pressure over the U.S., but it will fly thru the GULF and NW Carribean to see how much of the ridge is intact and/or weakening then what is believed in the models.... another words that data will go into the models and it could help the short term movement of Weds and Thurs before the main trough comes in to push it more rapidly NE friday into saturday.
huh???
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:53 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Well watching Dr. Steve right now, not real encouraging, of course it is early, and these systems have a tendancy to get caught around Honduras area, we will see.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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responding to his question on what the NOAA Jets purpose will be in flying out there on Tuesday.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:12 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Outflow beginning to look more and more healthy. Think if you look at the last frame on this loop you can see W and NW outflow beginning and would imagine Wilma will head in that direction. That seems to be the boundry, thoughts?
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:14 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
It's difficult to tell if there is any movement right now or not, since the VIS images are no longer available. This is still a tropical storm, so it isn't necessarily a given that the center is anchored in the middle of the convection. In the last hour, it seems to have shrugged off some old convection to the west and redeveloped new convection near the last center fix, so it still may not be moving much at all.
Yeah, I see what you mean Thunder. I think it is just getting its act together, really. Still, it does not appear to be moving south any longer, even though the last recon fix was south of the previous center fix. Since then, it appears to have simply spun in place for 2-3 hours. It DEFINATELY looks better organized, though. The LLC *appears* to be under the nice black (very cold) cloud tops now whereas this afternoon it appears to be on the north edge of the CDO.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:15 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Never too early to ask what the intensity of a storm might be a landfall. Three or above you'll probably want to prepare to evacuate
but 1 or 2 might shelter in place. So to have some ideal is a good ideal.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Right now I would say the winds are getting up to a strong TS possibly near 70mph but would think the 11pm adv be 60mph due to no recon in there. Pressure still around 988mb on latest quicksat pass but wouldnt be surprised if its slightly lower.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:24 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
Right now I would say the winds are getting up to a strong TS possibly near 70mph but would think the 11pm adv be 60mph due to no recon in there. Pressure still around 988mb on latest quicksat pass but wouldnt be surprised if its slightly lower.
I can't understand the recon schedule with this thing. Looking at the IR4 loop I think youi're right about the winds, and without a recon to confirm it, they probably will stay on the low side. They need the plane to sample the atmosphere, though, to feed into the computer models so we have a better idea about where this is going!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Well we have tonights 00z runs then tomorrows 12z then the main runs start with the NOAA plane to see if there are any changes,,,00z runs tomorrow night and then on.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
Well we have tonights 00z runs then tomorrows 12z then the main runs start with the NOAA plane to see if there are any changes,,,00z runs tomorrow night and then on.
So basically another 24 hours of models that are probably going to be inconsistent (based upon the models of the last 2 days), and thus unreliable? Why not send a plane in sooner and get more reliable models sooner?
ETA:
The 0215z IR4 image looks rather... weird. After several hours of consecutively better organization appearing, the 0215z image looks... well, I think it looks weird. The CDO, which was very circular earlier, is.... square! Is dry air pinching Wilma again? The WV image doesn't indicate so, but I can't figure out why it looks square right now
UPDATE! 11pm is out.... 65mph winds, and it has finally turned! Moving due west at an incredible TWO mph!
5 day forecast calls for the circulation center to be just off the coast of Florida.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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$$$ ,,cause we have time , its not moving much,,and not expected until tomorrow.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:46 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Well I was pretty much right on,,, said near 70mph but probably they would do 60mph,,,they did 65mph. Pressure is near what i said 987 and wont know forsure until next recon gets in. Path is same as 5pm but maybe slightly east due to 18z runs. OZ runs be out in a hour or 2.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:50 AM |
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Recon
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I believe there's a flight out now...should be approaching soon...even flew thru Cuban airspace.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Whats this about the 11:00 update being out I dont see it! Hugh posted it earlier..
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:57 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I posted it 10 min ago
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:00 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
I posted it 10 min ago and hugh got it just before me.
Discussion not out yet that I can find, I'm waiting to read it and then going to bed. I'm curious as to what they say, but I suspect it will be status quo, actually.
Edit: Well, the discussion is out now. Interesting tidbit:
As is often the case... however... the
models greatly disagree on how sharply Wilma will turn and how fast
it will move after recurvature. Most of the models are now much
faster after recurvature... but the new official forecast will only
be adjusted part of the way between the previous advisory and the
latest dynamical model consensus. Conditions appear conducive for
steady strengthening while Wilma remains in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea... and it still appears probable that Wilma will
become a major hurricane. Thereafter... increasing shear should
halt intensification and begin to induce gradual weakening... but
not enough to weaken Wilma beneath hurricane intensity within the
five-day time frame.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:Quote:
I posted it 10 min ago and hugh got it just before me.
Discussion not out yet that I can find, I'm waiting to read it and then going to bed. I'm curious as to what they say, but I suspect it will be status quo, actually.
I get them e-mailed to me so I usually get them before they are posted. Scott posted it earlier I believe.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:40 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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what happened to the early and late cycle runs on http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ have not updated all day i like those runs
and i hope they keep going more and more south.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:47 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
what happened to the early and late cycle runs on http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ have not updated all day i like those runs
Yeah, his site has a lot of nice info on it, but unfortunately it isn't updating.
Good thing he's not the only site out there!
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Which model has done the best thus far in the season. I thought I remembered reading that the GFDL had done the best job. Can anyone confirm this?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:10 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Yes,I can.GDFL has been very good.Wow,How things change,the track does not look good for any part of Florida.And this looks to be a very big system.Looks like this season will go out with a bang for us in Florida.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:18 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
Yes,I can.GDFL has been very good.Wow,How things change,the track does not look good for any part of Florida.And this looks to be a very big system.Looks like this season will go out with a bang for us in Florida.
Unfortunately I think you are right. I wish this season was over all ready. The past couple of days have been just beautiful here with cooler dry air. I am keeping my eyes on this storm and hope it gets weaker and no one suffer too much.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:21 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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So bob the GDFL tracks this storm closer to Tampa right? So why does everyone seem to think Miami and the Keys are more at risk? Any ideas?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Well,you have to look at the trends.There is a dramatic shift to the east from this morning.All of Florida needs to watch this very closely.If this trend continues than south Florida is in the path of the eye(when it does form).Most of the models have it hitting Florida,the big question is where,and that is still uncertain.Just pay close attention from here on out.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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the reason is all the other models have it going there.The gdfl has been good but nowhere near perfect.It was off on rita having it going more south.
So when they say the GDFL has done good does not mean much as if this storm goes where the others sy the GDFL would still have done good as it had the turn.Plus the GDFL changes alot as it has for the past day.
It does good with how strong the storm is going to be this season also.
But i think and hope its wrong on the track as its a loner right now.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:37 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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No.the GDFL is not alone.Most models have it going over Florida,they just disagree on where.Most all have it curving NE.This will have an impact on Florida,how big and where the worse will hit is still a question.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:37 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Thanks ralph and bob also what do you think the intensity will be? Any idea. Do you think it will weaken before making landfall in Florida?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:41 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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They are now saying that it will get to a 3.But coming into Florida as a 2.Remember they are better at the track than how how strong she will be.Stay tuned.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:48 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Quote:
So bob the GDFL tracks this storm closer to Tampa right? So why does everyone seem to think Miami and the Keys are more at risk? Any ideas?
Miami, the FL Keys and Anyone in the Right Front Quadrant will be exposed to Wilma's rain, winds and Surge. Especially to the right of where she makes landfall.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:56 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Thanks I am on the SE coast but I know I can be impacted by Wilma also. When Katrina and Rita hit Miami area as a Cat 1 I got alot of strong wind gusts and torrential rain here. If this one is more intense at landfall I probably would have alot more to deal with and I want to make preparations early. Hubby works out of town so it will be up to me with the shutters and such if needed. I will just stay tuned , I know the path could change this far out.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:00 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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The high pressure to it's west will break down and allow Wilma to turn to the north in about a couple of days, allowing for further strengthening to a CAT 4. Of course the path would indicate somewhere in the Gulf coast, but I ain't buying that scenario. Cliamatology speaking and trends over past hurricanes would indicate a strike on the west coast of FLA.
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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My... there's a ton of convection blooming with the wave in the open Atlantic.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:08 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Based on everything at this point I am looking for a split down the middle. S of Fl and N Of Cuba, split the uprights. Look to 1933 for similar path and of course a significant decrease in intensity
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:09 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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It is rather obvious that Wilma is now sitting over a deep layer of warm water. I will not be surprise to see Wilma at hurricane status on the next update. It will only get worst. Those on the west coast of FLA need to really pay attention very closely. We have days of notices, but it wouldn't hurt to start now to prepare for the worst.
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:26 AM |
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1 AM EDT
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Dvorak numbers have increased from 2.8 at 0015Z.
To a 3.2 at 0445Z. Rate of increase seems to have slowed just a bit. From +0.1per hour, to +0.1 per 90 minutes at present.
0415Z, Mean cloud temperatures are at their lowest yet.
Eye region temps have warmed a few degrees from their lowest temp at 0245Z.
IR Satellite loop through 0445Z. Indicating Wilma attempting some consolidation of her convection.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir.gif
| floridafamily |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:26 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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First let me say that I am sorry this question is going to be ignorant. (Also sorry if this is asked in the wrong place) I know it is too soon to tell where Wilma will make landfall, but I'm trying to be prepared. (We are located in Englewood, FL.) Where would be the safest place to evacuate to?
i wouldn't worry about evacuating unless you're in a flood prone area, until there exists a large chance that winds will breach your home. that won't exist for a few days. if the center of the storm were to landfall near englewood.. the best place would be well to the north around ocala or something for a very strong storm. otherwise i'd just secure everything as best as possible and go to a local shelter. again, unless there's a good chance your home would be inundated... staying at the house for anything less than a cat 3 would be safe enough. -HF
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:30 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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It's time to remember how thin Florida is.Meaning,If a major cane comes ashore at the western tip of Florida,Miami and Ft Laud would get a major hit.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:34 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Your right at this point it is early, but based on current models and projections North will be the direction. Gov Bush is agressive in making S.O.E. calls so anyone needing to evacuate should have plenty of time and direction. But it really is going to be a wait and see for a bit
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:35 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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Bob dont get so excited about it yet,.,,,it could even stay south of the keys giving them the most risk and giving Miami a brush like Rita did.....ala Ukmet 0Z run,.
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danielw
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| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:36 AM |
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Recon Update
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Recon transmitted a 984mb pressure from the center. And they found 55kts Max Flight Level Wind in the NW Quadrant inbound toward the center.
55kts*1.15=63.25mph (flt level)* 91%=57.56mph at the surface...roughly.
It should be about 90 minutes before they make another pass through the center. That should give us the SE and NE quadrant Max Flt Level winds.
This is based on Recon flying their normal pattern.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:41 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I have told many friends here for about 4 months that we would get a bad one in October.Nothing to back that up,But a gut feeling.My gut has served me well over the years.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:43 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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LOL you say every storm is going to Miami,,LOL but its cool and all, this one might,,but its too early,,wont know for 24 hrs,,no matter what the models say,,even tomorrows 12z runs.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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I said two storms would hit,I was wrong about one,right about Katrina.This one I am more worried about more than any other.This season HAS to go out with a bang.
careful what you wish for, bob. -HF
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:02 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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stronger winds on first outbound, like danielw said... should have been in the SE quad
(outbound)
MF155 M0800 MF061 - 61kts at flt lv. :surface about 63.84mph (using danielw formula above)
OBS 01 AT 04:15:20Z
OBS 07 AT 04:44:10Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
AF309 0424A WILMA OB 12
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:07 AM |
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teleconnected
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well, the pattern is one of NAO negative and SOI stuck positive.. so it's zonal ridging with a progressive mid-latitude pattern but blocking to the north. the tendency for low pressure over the east should effectively shunt wilma out into the atlantic after it crosses florida (which is the most likely possibility right now... it'll have to start moving northeast at a pretty low latitude to miss, and there's significant ridging moving in place for the short term). the models were all going west earlier.. now they're trained back across florida. none are showing wilma phasing into the westerly flow and zipping up the coast. unless that solution reappears, then the best bet is that it will arc eastward as it moves north and pass well off the east coast. a lot of the model guidance has shifted southward across florida with the more dramatic recurvature. i'd say it'll probably stabilize back to the north... with the way typhoon kirogi is curving past japan after being stuck to the south for days.. the teleconnection would be for a hurricane to zip across florida about 6-7 days later (at least that's what the rough average is by the winter longwave pattern.. not quite there yet). kirogi is 'past', so the cross-florida track would be roughly centered on october 22nd-23rd. kirogi intensified quite a bit sunday, which wasn't entirely expected... better hope wilma doesn't mimic the behavior as it bears down on the west coast of florida. ssts in the southeastern gulf aren't quite what they were in august, so i wouldn't expect quite the behavior. i'd guess that the storm's intensity will run somewhere between what michelle in 2001 and lili in 1996 had as they impacted cuba--more likely closer to lili. it'll probably be a substantial hurricane, nonetheless. target window is still cedar key to key west, with a special emphasis on the sarasota to naples swath.
elsewhere in the basin not much doing. there's a surface swirl near 23/41.. remnant of that invest from a few days ago. it has flashed the odd thunderstorm today, but is more of a remnant-type low than anything. pretty stable environment, but shear conditons are passable, so if it flares up again it'll have a chance at being a tropical cyclone.
gfs indicated pattern in the long range shows the potential for additional pattern-pulse type development in the caribbean. nothing to latch onto yet as it probably doesn't have wilma's exit strategy figured out yet. if there are greek alphabet systems in the offing, then none are exciting too much model interest.
HF 0606z18october
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danielw
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| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:08 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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15.5N/ 79.8W Max flt level wind-64kts at 0553Z.
Should equate to 67mph at the surface.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:11 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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sounds like maybe 70mph by 5am maybe....
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:16 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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for some reason i think i see on obs 9 (at 0427Z) from recon, one after obs 8 which was vortex... the obs 9 has a 983mb reading in its data.... one mb less than vortex report
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:20 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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also in latest sat 545utc.... cdo has expanded more and the center i think is much more under the convection now.....MAN... those are some COLD cloud tops to the south of center!!!!
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:36 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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Good evening Gents. If she lands as a cat 3...
How much category strength would be lost by Wilma if she crossed straight from Naples to Fort Lauderdale like Alligator Alley (Rt 75) does? Distance is about 110 miles and runway is 90 (dead east). Florida is 1/2 water and almost sea level all across. Not a good thing.
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danielw
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| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:40 AM |
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Crossing Florida?
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I believe NHC is expecting a CAT 2 at landfall, and a CAT 1 level if and when Wilma exits the Peninsula.
Based on the slope of the 5 day forecast. A heading of around 060 or ENE should be close.
I haven't looked at the models tonight...so I'm blind in that respect.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:55 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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This is from Monday Afternoon's:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
212 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 (edited~danielw)
ENOUGH OF A TROUGH EXISTS IN THE OH VLY/EAST FROM DAY 5 /SAT AM/ ONWARD TO ALLOW
WILMA RECURVE ALONG A CLIMO TRACK ACRS THE FL PENINSULA.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LANDFALL BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND TAMPA...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH VARIOUS MODELS ONE DAY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE PROGGED TIME OF LANDFALL. THE LONGER THE SYS TAKES TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FARTHER SOUTH THE POINT OF LANDFALL COULD BE IN THE FL PENINSULA.
This is considered somewhat old data. But it breaks down the scenario at hand a bit better.~danielw
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:32 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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This is kind of a bit off topic but in response to the user from englewood's question. I live in Charlotte county. Half of Englewood also lies in Charlotte county. This is a very vunerable area because I would say roughly 80-90% of the county is 15 feet above sea level or below. I am a mile and a half from the Harbor in Port Charlotte and we are only 8 1/2 feet above sea level. There are no Shelters for a category 3 Hurricane because of elevation. Our Flood maps show almost all of Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, and Englewood, or three major population centers would be under water in only a cat 3, we're talkin almost 150,000 people. So my advice is to watch the forcasts very closely and if you have any doubts take a trip for the weekend. It never hurts to be to careful, but once you stay and the strom is on top of you you have no where to go. That applies to anwhere in FL right now because this far out it could hit anywhere . The key is preparation. Wish everyone in the state the best of luck.
Hurricane Charley '04 (Port Charlotte)
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:44 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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Pretty much all of the models have Wilma headed towards the south end of the pennisula. Yikes didn't want to see this again. What my question is, why have they decided to pick up the timing when she is still nearly stationary? What is going to pull her up our way so fast.? There are some other models that don't put her at landfall here until Monday or Tuesday of next week. Now the NHC track puts her here Saturday nite? One last question is there anything in her path that could make her pull a Charlie and pull her to a more northly landfall?
MaryAnn
| dave foster |
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| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:45 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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Wilma is stuck in the doldrums yet again. If she doesn't find steering for quite a while as the NHC are suggesting then will she continue to intensify, in situ, or is there a chance that she might start to decay?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:29 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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Quote:
Wilma is stuck in the doldrums yet again. If she doesn't find steering for quite a while as the NHC are suggesting then will she continue to intensify, in situ, or is there a chance that she might start to decay?
It really depends upon how long she sits and spins, and where. If she were to find a current and sit and spin over it, the intensity would go up. If she were to sit and stir the water elsewhere, ultimately the water would cool down.
Looking at the IR4 loop.... IF that is an eye developing (not confident that it is yet), the storm is beginning to move northward, it appears to me, and is a LOT stronger than 70 mph (you typically don't see an eye on a cat 1 hurricane). Looking closely, though... I think the LLC is south of the eye feature. Still, it looks like it will get pulled north sooner rather than later - going closer to the tip of Cuba than the Yucatan peninsula.
Update: "Eye" feature was short-lived. Next IR4 image showed VERY cold cloud tops (the black things again)... but still looks to me like it's moving NW or NNW (there is definately a west component, and if the LLC is under that black area, there is a north component too).
| Cindi |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:45 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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So, is Panama City out of the woods yet? Or do we still need to keep an eye on this storm. We are having a big Youth Night/going away party for one of our YOuth on Friday night.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:50 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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Nobody is out of the woods yet, but I'm watching the Euro, which has not budged since yesterday, taking the storm into the south central Florida coast and exiting the east coast near Indian river county near sebastian inlet, I would expect though, based on the current guidance that you should be ok up there, but things change. Just keep an eye on updates from the NHC.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:19 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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Quote:
Good evening Gents. If she lands as a cat 3...
How much category strength would be lost by Wilma if she crossed straight from Naples to Fort Lauderdale like Alligator Alley (Rt 75) does? Distance is about 110 miles and runway is 90 (dead east). Florida is 1/2 water and almost sea level all across. Not a good thing.
not much since the system will be moving at 20+ based on model guidance, there will be shear but it will be from behind the storm and not across it
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:20 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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I live in Port Orange, we are no where near being out of the woods. This can move just a little and we will get what we got last year with charlie or a little worse, so keep watching.
NEW THREAD UP
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:34 AM |
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Cause of potential FL hit
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I'm sorry everyone. This is entirely my fault. You see, this past weekend, I decided to try out for a local soccer team after wanting to get back into things over the past several years. We have a game lined up for Sunday.
Yup, all my fault here. I should just wash my car to seal the deal. Then again, I could board up today and cause the storm to inexplicably steer away...
decisions, decisions...
Seems the usual round of "should I" has already started in earnest, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's better to ponder now than to ignore this storm until it's closer. For now, nobody in the peninsula is necessarily safe. As the tracks get better input and the guidance is more decisive, then we'll be able to make recommendations.
As for the "stay for Cat 3 and under", that really ought to have been qualified a little better:
If you are not in a flood prone area AND you are not in a mobile home AND you are not in an early pre-fab (newer pre-fab buildings are actually very strong), AND you are more than 10-15 feet above sea level AND you are not on the coast, THEN you should be able to ride this out at Cat 3 or lower. Don't rely on neighbors who have ridden storms out before to make your decision - use storm surge maps, SLOSH models, and every other piece of data you can find. Make an informed decision and please stock up your hurricane supplies if they are diminished.
If you're going to evacuate, make your reservations early (and confirm them), and try to not run screaming from the building (as it tends to scare small children
).I think for the sake of levity, someone should break out Dave Barry's Hurricane preparedness article.
Dave Barry's 2001 Hurricane Preparedness Guide
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:35 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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Good morning, all. I see the track has shifted back east. I'm beginning to get a feeling about Wilma. She's a high-maintenance girl.
Finally the NHC 5am disc acknowledged that the high over the GOM is still not going anywhere, despite the forecast; and then what does it do, but immediately start to move the last couple of hours, LOL, with corresponding movement from Wilma. None of the data on the Navy site seems to be very current so I can't find any scans to look at the banding under the convection, and it is a little hard for me to get a handle on where her center is, but since they mentioned the convection is more symmetric, it appears she may be a little N of the track points (which, btw, look like shades of Camille; thank goodness it isn't August and there's hardly any likelyhood of a northern track once rounded Cuba).
Now I think it is possible that Wilma is going to go higher than a Cat 3 in the Caribbean. This newest track is over some of the warmest deep waters that are left. However, NHC doesn't forecast this, and they know a lot more than I do, so we'll see, but I did see the word "intense" hurricane so I think that it's possible they're laying the ground for ramping up the intensity forecast, since they have a limited set of hurricane adjectives, at the NHC, and use them sparingly. Notice how the stupid frenzy over global warming, and short collective memory, has them throwing this kind of thing into the discussion:
"WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW."
And what they say is true. I remember my parents and grandparents talking about Hazel (well, she didn't form in the same place, but there were a lot of major hurricanes in the 40s and 50s, esp along the ATL coastline).
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:37 AM |
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Re: Crossing Florida?
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As of right now nobody is a point. The Gulf coast is a point and maybe not even that. If and when Wima starts moving North but it looks like it's starting, then maybe the NHC could have a better fix on it. Remember the models are just a guidance not a point.
| Ed G |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:47 AM |
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Re: Cause of potential FL hit
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sorry tpratch, it's actually my fault.
Six months ago I planned and obtained wilderness permits for a five day backpacking trip beginning thursday!
Now I'm pretty sure that I should cut the trip short and drive south from Georgia into the oncoming storm in order to get those roof vent caps and storm panels installed.
Good luck all.
Ed G
Clermont, Fl