Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Oct 30 2005 02:29 PM |
Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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Monday 10PM Update
The tropical wave (Invest 92L) that was south of Puerto Rico this morning has moved rapidly west northwest during the day and has been drawn into the northern circulation of an upper level low currently in the central Caribbean Sea south of Haiti. The opportunity for development has decreased significantly as the tropics begin to transform into a wintertime pattern. Activity is finally quieting down.
Monday 11AM Update
Tropical Depression Beta has dissipated over extreme southwestern Honduras, while Invest 92L is still an active wave, now well south of Puerto Rico in the western Caribbean Sea. Most model runs have not been updated on 92L in quite some time - but they probably should be. The wave continues to move westward through the Caribbean Sea and convection is again on the increase.
Original Post
Hurricane Beta made landfall shortly after 30/12Z along the east central coast of Nicaragua as a Category II hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105mph. Beta was a small but powerful hurricane with a small eye - it did reach Category III during the night, but weakened just prior to landfall. Current movement is to the southwest at about 10mph and rapid weakening is expected over the high terrain of Nicaragua. A remnant low could emerge into the Pacific off the west central Nicaraguan coast as Beta continues on a southwest to westsouthwest course over the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding likely over Nicaragua and Honduras. Landfall was near 12.9N 83.6W.
Active stationary wave over Jamaica with a weak circulation over western Jamaica should bring more heavy rainfall to that country. The wave exists in an area of moderate wind shear so future development seems unlikely.
Active tropical wave near 15.5N 56W at 30/12Z (Invest 92L) moving to the west and west northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands. The wave will be moving into an area of lighter shear and has potential for additional development over the next 2 or 3 days. The next name on the list is 'Gamma'.
The zonal jet has extended southward to 23N thanks to the anticipated development of a strong Mississippi Valley upper trough in a couple of days. This set-up should offer some near term protection to the U.S. - keeping any future systems offshore and out to sea. Note that the westerlies over the central Gulf of Mexico are stronger than the westerlies over central Hudson Bay.
23 Named Storms (and still counting)
13 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes
3 Cat V's
Probably a 'once in a century' type of season!
ED
Event Related links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Beta
* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Beta - Static Image
cimss Beta Page
92L
* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 30 2005 05:23 PM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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Good morning, all...yes after staying up until 3am (which could be considered 4am without the time change), I am just getting up.
Looked only at the wv loop so far, but what a horrfying situation for the small fishing villages of Nicaragua. Not surprised that the small core which was very strong and very well organized is taking some time to dissipate. To note:many did not evac from those isolated fishing villages, and with the ridge driving it SSW what remains of the core is still running down the coastline. Secondly, it appears that Honduras got quite a bit of rainfall as well...something that should have been given more emphasis in the advis since the movement had gone so far to the north, but which was dropped in the last couple advis before landfall.
Afraid NHC did not do too well with this one (nor did any of us).
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 30 2005 05:26 PM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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And I thought 2004 was a once in a century season!
Indeed, it has been a very active season and one apparently keyed into the MDO (Multi-Decadal Oscillation) of SSTs in the Atlantic... However, there are and were other factors in play. Less was the sub-Saharan soil moisture/rain fall, usually statistically correlated with a very active Cape Verdi season...
This year's phenomenal activity appears to have been more keyed into the SOI (Southern Oscillation index); where having that in concert with multi-seasonal warm SST anomaly in the Atlantic Basin gave circumstances this season a tremendous boost! There was very much less than the usual amount of shearing westerlies at mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, in the means, because the tropical Pacific SSTs were not as condusive as they could have been, in creating an excited westerly component over the SW Atlantic Basin. To the lay person, this may seem odd...that the SSTs of the tropical Pacific could exert and influence in the westerlies at low-latitudes over the Caribbean and adjacent areas, but such is the way of the atmosphere and the reasons are quite complex having to do with terrestrial physics.
Just for those who do not know: The MDO tends to be just that, "multi-decadal"....which, is code for happening over extended periods. The other key is "oscillation".....and, if you look back at the climatology of SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean, indeed, a periodicity of roughtly 25 years (that's rough) materializes in the data... It is no coincidence (it is currently theorized) that in over a 100 years worth of data, a flux in TC frequency coincides rather nicely with these warm periods. During such warmer departures from norm...should the other indices be also favorable, then POW! I am not honestly that certain what the sub-Saharan rain index was leading into this season but a vague memory of a report issued early on suggested it was below normal... That would have been a negative factor for contemporary thinking on the matter, but, since these other positives were so overwhelming, the rest was born. (Sub-Saharan rains are statistically correlated to stronger and more frequent tropical wave activity passing from Africa to the tropical/sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean).
This is all important to note because we are still embedded in the postive period of the MDO; meaning, more likely than not, positive Atlantic Basin SSTs will again be registerable in earnest, probably toward the end of next spring. All this activity did put a slight dent in the heat content, but when this season inevitably dies down there will definitely be enough vestigial warmth to ring off next summer with a higher than normal launching pad. SSTs will be quite hot, quite early, just as they were this season. So...from a purely cursory point of view, the table will be set for next season to be a big one!
The question: Who shows for dinner?? Will the SOI flip phases supporting a warm SST in the East Pacific, which would be a heavily weighted negative? Will sub-Saharan rains be greater, which would be supportive of stronger waves emerging off the west African Coast for perhaps a better expression of the "Cape Verde" season?? In other words, next season's frequency will depend most likely on these and other indices (not mention here for there relative smaller significance) that current scientific understanding only vaguely at best can predict their their modalities. The MDO is the most predominant and that is why it is of higher confidence... (We haven't even included Global Warming in this discussion - too argumentative for now...
)Sufficed to say, however, with warmer than normal SSTs persisting next year (the favored state), we are in the very least probablistically on the higher than normal amount of activity aspect of the curve. Trust me: if the SOI is in LaNina and the SSTs remain warmer than normal - odds would favor much above normal. Time will tell...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 30 2005 06:17 PM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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Ed -- eight major hurricanes, not seven (Beta the eigth).
Tip -- the season is still active. I definitely want to revisit your discussion...in December.
update -- was the NHC wrong? I haven't counted. From the 4am disc:
BETA IS THE EIGHTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON...
Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita, Wilma, Beta...makes seven, not eight.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 30 2005 07:38 PM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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I don't care how active the rest of the season is, just as long as the activity stays away from Fla and the rest of the US! I am wondering when El Nino will flare up again. When ever he is around the tropics are pretty quiet.
| the young weatherman |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 30 2005 07:45 PM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 30 2005 09:20 PM |
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ENSO
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if el nino was coming on it would have started in the summer.. just about always does. moot point that there's not going to be one this year. SOI, which is an indicator that leads ENSO has been strongly positive all october... it's just switching, but it would be camping negative for weeks on end in negative territory were the forcing for ocean warming the pacific in place. we've been en neutral to weak ENSO warm (moderate el nino in 2002, neutral in 2003, weak el nino in 2004, neutral in 2005). if anything we're due for la nina to come back around. note that even with a weak el nino circulation in 2004, we still had a very active season with multiple major hurricanes making landfall in the u.s. ENSO has to be quite strong to really affect the activity in the atlantic, especially since the AMO is cranking and ocean temperatures have been and should stay consistently above normal in much of the basin.
HF 2120z30october
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 30 2005 10:54 PM |
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92L
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you know, for an unfavorable environment, it looks pretty nice, but of course, the caveat, give it another 6 - 12 hours to see if it still looks nice. I keep thinking I see a hint of circulation but, I'm not really sure, and the convection seems to be dying anyway, so... probably a no go.
I still think we have a shot to get to Delta or Epsilon, as there are still opportunites and time in the carribean, as well as the oddball hybrid storms to develop.
-Mark
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 31 2005 01:22 AM |
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The "Ls"
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91L-Vortice and isolated convection is visible in the WV loops through 0015Z. Located just north of the ABC Islands in the South Central Caribbean. 91L appears to have escaped being drawn into Beta's Circulation.
92L-Drifting slowly toward the W-NW. Low level circulation/ inflow visible on the last few frames of the Visible Satellite shots. Moderate convection, located near the center of the cloud mass, is decreasing somewhat at this time.
Shear appears to be influencing any further development at this time. Westward moving air mass located to the East of 92L appears to be pushing 92L toward the NNW. Just south of the convection, winds are from the SW. Possibly due to circulation from the backside of 91L.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 31 2005 01:33 AM |
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Re: The "Ls"
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Am I missing something seems 91L was dropped over 24 hours ago??
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 31 2005 02:45 AM |
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Re: The "Ls"
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No Sir. I am using the Tropical Weather Discussion, areas. I didn't check the Navy site. So I'm missing up to date information.
I strictly was going by the satellite photos and I double checked my post after the 7 PM Discussion was transmitted.
Remnants of 91L, the vortice is still visible, with associated convection. I was counting on it being pulled into Beta's circulation. That hasn't happened.
Just a friendly heads up that the circulation still exists. It was generating thunderstorms early on Sunday morning over the ABC Islands.
I've learned over the 2004-2005 Hurricane Season to:
"Never say Never, when dealing with the Weather".
I'm sure that you probably have a similar saying after so many years at Sea.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 31 2005 01:43 PM |
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I am back from Wilma
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Hi All,
I'm back after Wilma. I have plenty of stories, pictures, and video to share. For now, I wanted to post the awesome data I collected during the storm from my home weather station. I am NWS Storm Spotter number 41 in Palm Beach County.
Here are my storm statistics:
Front Eyewall:
9:03 a.m.
Wind SSE
Sustained wind 77 mph
Gust to 103 mph
Back Eyewall:
11:54 a.m.
Wind W/WNW
Sustained wind 90 mph
Gust to 118 mph
Lowest Pressure 28.15" / 953 mb at 9:58 a.m.
Total Rainfall 1.54"
Of interest, I also show a temperature and dew point drop of 8 degrees in the 30 minutes prior to the strongest winds at 11:54 a.m. I have a Davis weather station that actually survived the storm, but had lots of damage to my home, such as roof, fence, screen enclosure, satellite dish, trees, etc. My front door even blew in at the height of the storm.
You can view my Wilma data and graphs at the following web site:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstati...4&year=2005
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 31 2005 06:08 PM |
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Re: I am back from Wilma
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I can't find anything about Nicaragua on the online news at all, about how they fared after Beta. Did anyone read or hear anything?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 31 2005 09:15 PM |
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Re: I am back from Wilma
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92L is looking like its got some good convection and thats been going on all day. I wonder if they will change anything in the next TWO. Anybody wish to comment on 92L?
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 31 2005 09:23 PM |
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Re: I am back from Wilma
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There's no NHC track on sketobites model page but lets hope it doesn't stick with the 98e model. NHC has been pretty darn good this year(other than Beta that is).
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 31 2005 09:48 PM |
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Re: I am back from Wilma
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I checked the South Florida Water District; they have nothing on 92L either. Let's hope Dr. Gray is right and there won't be anything in November.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 31 2005 11:59 PM |
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Re: I am back from Wilma
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Well, here is a suggestion, although unless you can speak spanish it won't do you a whole lot of good. Tune your cable to the Univision (Spanish) channel. They have pictures and video of the areas effected by Beta. I saw some footage this morning. Like i said, it's in spanish so it won't do you a lot of good unless you can understand it, yet you can at least see some video.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 12:02 AM |
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Re: I am back from Wilma
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The 5pm discussion says that upper level winds are not favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Usually at the end of that they put, "at this time", or "the next few days". This discussion said formation wasn't expected because of upper level winds. Maybe there isn't any updates, like on Skeetobite's site, because 92L is not going to do anything?!
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 12:23 AM |
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Re: I am back from Wilma
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Try this link:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1267512
Navy Mil have dropped 92L.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 12:30 AM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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Quote:
Ed -- eight major hurricanes, not seven (Beta the eigth).
One should check before they make a statement Ed is correct. ((7)))
Dave
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 01:17 AM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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1) Dennis - Cat 4
2) Emily - Cat 4
3) Katrina - Cat 5
4) Maria - Cat 3
5) Rita - Cat 5
6) Wilma - Cat 5
7) Beta - Cat 3
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| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 01:46 AM |
Re: I am back from Wilma
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Finally back on line. FPL got its act together. Hope that all are well with, at most, minimal damage.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 02:14 AM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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Look how many of those affected the US. Dennis-Florida, Emily-south Texas, Katrina-LA, MS, AL, and FL, Rita-Southeast Texas and
LA, Wilma-Florida. Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma actually made landfall in the US. And everyone of these made landfall
from the Gulf. Interesting.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 03:15 AM |
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Re: I am back from Wilma
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Well, looks like 92L is back, and moving at a fair lick by the look of it.
It's track appears to be taking it over the large islands which should keep it quiet hopefully.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 06:34 AM |
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November!
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Happy November all, hope this is it for 2005!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 06:58 AM |
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Re: November!
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nothing but some frontally associated features shown on the models in the coming days. with NAO positive the chances of hybrid cutoffs is low. SOI pulsed to weakly negative and an mjo wave is coming on in a week or two, but things aren't looking too perky right now. 91L washed out into a trough, 92L isn't well defined.
HF 0658z01november
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 04:58 PM |
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Re: November!
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Quiet is good!!!!!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 06:39 PM |
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Re: November!
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Quiet in the tropics = quiet on this board...
The first I don't mind.
I just wish it didn't lead to the 2nd
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 06:45 PM |
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Re: November!
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Year end analysis can't be far away?
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 06:46 PM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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All the major storms became hurricanes west of 50W
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 06:51 PM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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center of a weak low pressure is 125 miles SW of Naples moving NE. The system is developing gradually but will probably not develop into a depression as its core is small and will encounter land in 6-8hrs. It should develop more once it gets east of florida tomorrow morning and could be classifed tomorrow evening. In the next 2 days however it will become more of a hybrid system and merge into a larger low pressure system over the N Altantic.......anyways its just interesting to watch right now in its developing stage off of Naples...I expect sw florida to have some gusty winds near 30-40mph and possible isolated tornados near the landfall and over extreme s florida later this evening into tonight until the center passes off the coast tomorrow.
scottsvb
| Tak |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 10:22 PM |
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Re: November!
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From Dr. Gray's Oct 3 forecast:
"We will be issuing our forecast verification for the 2005 Atlantic basin hurricane season on Friday, November 19. The first forecast for the 2006 hurricane season will be issued on Tuesday, December 6. All forecasts are available on our website at: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts"
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 10:30 PM |
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Re: November!
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Do we really ned to hear this Dec 6th?
| Tak |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 10:33 PM |
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Re: November!
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I think it was Dr. Gray who said, "the hurricane game is won in the off season". Might as well hear it about it Dec 6. More time for more prep.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 10:42 PM |
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Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
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near florida... that's a baroclinic profile. sheared environment along an old frontal boundary, set to merge with an oncoming front... naw, i wouldn't expect any tropical development out of it. may take over as the primary low as the shortwave picks it up, become a noreaster type system well offshore.
some of the modeling is showing a piece of the front it leaves tailing in and east of the bahamas, with an inverted trough moving along it to it from the east and inducing another surface low at the end of the week out to sea. probably will be too much shear around for it to do anything, in spite of warm ocean waters below.
the SOI downward pulse we've had hasn't translated to backing in the tropics yet. this late in the year it usually results in a monsoon trough-type feature in the sw caribbean across into the pacific, rather than the further westward feature that tends to form in the summer (esp in el nino years). not impossible that the western caribbean will remain a center of focus. active monsoon trough off africa as well, but waves are entering a rough zone in the central atlantic. itcz is depressed over the atlantic but far enough north that anything nearing the caribbean should be over water. the region from east of the islands to the western caribbean will remain the focal area for anything else that tries to start up in the current pattern.
until some blocking events or nao negative setting up, don't expect much in the way of subtropical hybrids. based on the circulation profile of the basin though, doesn't look like we're finished yet. october was exceptionally active (six storms, four hurricanes, two major)... with a similar pattern to late october holding i don't see why november won't try to cough up another storm or two.
then again it could be that my ability to sense inactivity is fried by the tremendous activity we've had this season and doesn't work anymore. sometimes an active october is followed by a quiet november (1995), or an active one (2001).
HF 2242z01november
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 11:00 PM |
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Re: November! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Tak |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Nov 01 2005 11:12 PM |
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Re: November!
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Yeah, that too.
But I also got a lot done last off season and will continue right on this year too. A few more precautions/improvements left to go. Then it comes down to a little luck. Maybe we'll all get lucky next year and they will all stay out to sea.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Nov 02 2005 12:14 PM |
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Re: November!
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Ah, excellent TWO this morning:
530 AM EST WED NOV 2 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECASTER PASCH
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Nov 02 2005 12:16 PM |
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Re: November!
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There is a flare up of convection in the Central Carrib with what i think is from what was 92L Look like it might try to make a comeback but I dont think it will with that trough comeing trough and it has quite a bit of shear.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Nov 02 2005 04:39 PM |
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Re: November!
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Much more interesting than the forecasts at Colorado State were the comments Dr. Gray submitted to Nature and Science on the two articles that caused such an uproar this year, saying that hurricanes are getting more destructive due to global warming (link in the upper LH corner of their web site). He came out firing with both barrels and it was a great read.
| Scrappy |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Nov 02 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: November!
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Link please?
CSU Tropical Forecasts Page
First article to the left - under NEWS.
ED
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Nov 03 2005 11:15 PM |
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Re: November!
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When do the TWDs usually post on NHC TPC?
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Nov 03 2005 11:53 PM |
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Re: November!
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they post at 105 and 805 in the mornings and afternoons
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Nov 03 2005 11:57 PM |
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Re: November!
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There is an active wave in the western carrib dont know much and this maybe ed or clark could give us a update soon Thank Mets and Mods You guys and gals do a great job.