MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Nov 23 2005 10:46 PM
Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

The record breaking 2005 Hurricane Season continues, with yet another named system. This one is no threat to land, as it will eventually meander in the central Atlantic.



Tropical Storm Delta is being tracked. More to come later.

TS Delta (from Skeetobite)
Click for full size:

Animated Model Graphic (Skeetobite)
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TS Delta - Static Image
CIMSS TS Delta Page


Tak
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Nov 24 2005 08:20 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

RAMSDIS has some nice loops. Looks like its starting to gain latitude. On IR floater, it looks like convection tried to wrap around the west side but it didnt quite make it. Is that an eye trying to form?

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Thu Nov 24 2005 11:22 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Fox news said Delta will be a hurricane tonight; they might not be far off.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Nov 24 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Good morning all. Delta is so very interesting. I have been watching storms all season now, but have not seen anything like this. It looks so strange on the visual sat images, almost like it is forming in reverse of what I have gotten used to seeing with TC, starting at the outside and working in. The wind field has consolidated as it has strengthened, but it seems the core will will be the last part to develop. I stared at the visual loop for a long time this morning (luckily it's all the same to the furball, who is very non-judgemental anyay, but fortunate really that no one was watching, or they'd wonder if the closest I could get to a brainstorm would be a light drizzle). It may seem odd, but visual imprinting of all these images makes a great reference tool for recognizing things down the road.

Looks like Stewart is holding down the fort at NHC TPC for the holiday. I so enjoy reading his discussions. He has a knack for clarifying things, using terminology that most everybody can understand. He explained the outflow, something I was wondering about yesterday, wondering where the anticyclonic flow could come from since Delta is moving within a larger low:

DELTA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ALONG 38-39N LATITUDE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO DECREASE AND FOR ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP. THE 300 MB WINDS ARE DEPICTED BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AS BEING AT LEAST 20 KT LESS THAN THEY ARE 200 MB... SO THE SHIPS MODEL VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS OF 42 KT APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG. THE MODELS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WEAK 300 MB WINDS OVER DELTA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...

And he again emphasized the importance of organized convection around the center, and the resulting difference between a normal eye and the center around which the clouds are swirling:

AND THE ONLY REASON THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN WAS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AROUND THE EYE FEATURE.

The track forecast is really excellent (remember Beta...and when to follow the models):

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/02 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DELTA MAY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH/CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED. THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE DELTA SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING IT BACK TO THE NORTH... DESPITE THE BROAD COUNTER CLOCKWISE MOTION THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DELTA COULD MAKE SOME SMALL LOOPS OR WOBBLES TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION... BUT THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK BY 72-120 HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BY 120H IS EXPECTED DUE TO SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA.

The best part of tracking these storms for me is watching the visual images, but the second best part has to be reading the NHC TPC discussions. You often hear the phrase that this or that scientific pursuit is an art (such as, forecasting is an art), and as a large part of myself is an artist, I'd have to agree that there is a point where all the logic and knowledge meet with that other intuitive process, and these people on staff at NHC TPC have both the knowledge and intuition, in spades. The discussions not only provide color in the B&W numerical world of meteorology, but manage, within the many guidelines and limitations inherent with the required wording and the product (not to mention the politics involved), to reflect each individual forecaster's personality as to how they approach the forecasting process.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Nov 24 2005 03:42 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

THE EYE FEATURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS BECOME RAGGED
AND LESS DISTINCT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT DELTA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN
14-16Z WHEN THE EYE WAS BEST DEFINED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB/SAB AND A 1638Z UW-CIMSS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 978 MB AND 72 KT.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Thu Nov 24 2005 04:22 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

This is one big storm, it must be burning a lot of warm water. Since it reached and dropped from hurricane status between advisories will it "offically" be called hurricane Delta?

ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Nov 24 2005 06:22 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Please help me understand why so many posters copy and paste storm info in their posts when one can go to several sites, i.e. Intellicast USA, Gemcode, etc...and find what they need immediately..?

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Nov 24 2005 09:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Quote:

Please help me understand why so many posters copy and paste storm info in their posts when one can go to several sites, i.e. Intellicast USA, Gemcode, etc...and find what they need immediately..?



Because we are discussing the storm and it makes sense to backup your statement.


Meanwhile, Delta looks almost like Vince did earlier this year. Since it has the ragged eye feature. I find it amazing we have had two storms form near the Azores in almost identical ways.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Nov 24 2005 10:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Actually you make a good point. It is not necessary to repeat an entire post from the NHC since the site has a link to the NHC at the bottom-left of your screen. It is okay to copy a portion of an NHC bulletin to emphasize your point, but otherwise it just duplicates information that is readily available from this site.
ED


Major7
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Nov 24 2005 10:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Hey, if we end up with "only" 7 major storms, do I win a prize for calling myself Major7?

This has been an incredible hurricane season, and while it is not over yet, with all this cool weather here in S. Florida, I would be surprised to see anything else head this way.

Hope everyone had a safe and happy holiday. I'll be looking forward to everyone's predictions and discussions during the 2006 season.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Nov 25 2005 11:53 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Well, don't need hurricanes to get nice strong winds...the front that swept through Maryland last night I clocked 3 60mph gusts on my handheld windguage...about 5 minutes before the power died.

Delta still spins away...still not hurricane I see. Wild season is hopefully drawing to a close.

gee man, i remember that stuff. bet your face was numb after those suckers. -HF


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Nov 25 2005 01:32 PM
Bye, bye, Delta!

Quote:

Well, don't need hurricanes to get nice strong winds...the front that swept through Maryland last night I clocked 3 60mph gusts on my handheld windguage...about 5 minutes before the power died.

Delta still spins away...still not hurricane I see.




We've also had several very windy days here in MSP the last month. Today, though, just beautiful snow.

Delta didn't quite ever make it to hurricane strength, the closest was yesterday. But it appears interesting things will continue to happen:

...MAY RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID/UPPER- LEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WITH THE LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING BEHIND TO INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA IN 72 HOURS.

I'm glad this season is facinating right up to the end.


vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Fri Nov 25 2005 08:59 PM
does the *East* Atlantic ever get hit by hurricanes/

Hi,

Looking at Delta (and remembering Vince earlier in the season) left me wondering hurricanes ever hit the regions of the East Atlantic like the Canary Islands, or Morocco, or even Portugal? Did that ever happen? There are eastward moving cyclones in the Pacific and in the Caribbean. What about the Atlantic?

Also, a friend of mine live in Venezuela (lucky him!) and he claims that they never, ever, have hurricanes. Is that possible?

Many thanks,

VS

a weakening tropical system on its last legs, vince, made landfall in southern spain back in october. that was a first. venezuela doesn't get hit much. occasionally a storm will move along their north coast. usually they don't make landfall. lucky for hugo chavez. -HF


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Sat Nov 26 2005 05:15 AM
Epsilon?

All of the models pretty universally shoot off a chunk of energy of off delta, and back into the central Atlantic. Perhaps one more before we close this out? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Nanci
(Registered User)
Sat Nov 26 2005 11:36 AM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

MARGIE - I live on the Gulf Coast and the word "fascinating" is not a word i would use to describe this season. Maybe you feel that way because you are tucked away all safe and sound in Minnesota, but not for those of us in the hurricane prone areas. The last two years has been hell for a lot of folks from Texas to the Florida Keys. I doubt they find anything about hurricanes "fascinating". I am sure you go through a lot of trouble when you lose power because of ice storms and or extreme cold, but still, it can't be anything like what we endure during a major hurricane. I used to live up north, i know what it's like during the winter, but in all my years of going through blizzards and ice storms never once did i have to evacuate or worry about losing my home. I guess it's easy to feel relaxed and at ease about hurricane season when you don't actually have to live through it, so please try to have some compassion for those of us who must deal with these storms six months out of the year. Thank You.

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 26 2005 11:45 AM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

Just me but I found out fascinating and I have lived through my fair share of storms in my young life. Its destructive but still awe inspiring and fascinating.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Nov 26 2005 12:18 PM
seconds, anyone?

delta is finally accelerating to the east-northeast. it's still firing deep convection, but should be under progressively greater shear and lower ssts, so the tropical nature of this system is not going to last much longer. interesting that some of the moisture will end up sweeping onshore in morocco and the western sahara autonomous region... that's rather vince-like in its abnormality. the surface center will have probably decayed by then, unless it becomes the dominant feature of the extratropical shortwave diving down to pull the storm out. could just be a sheared-off moisture plume by then.
for the last few days the globals have been handing off energy to another system to the west of delta--it is forecast to rapidly spin up as another kink of upper energy cuts off southwest of the block in the north atlantic. most show it moving southwest for a spell, then lifting north as the heights to the northwest begin to fall. in other words, it's doing the same sort of cut-off stunt as delta just did, more or less. these things sometimes hybridize into tropical systems, but i will say that this one doesn't have the same model look as delta did--it's chances of converting aren't nearly as good as delta's were. this is 2005, though. nothing is impossible.
HF 1718z26november


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 26 2005 12:41 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

Nanci, I am so sorry you lost your home and all the other things that the last two season have caused. I am in Florida and was greatly affected financially by last year's storms directly, and financially this year but indirectly by the storms that hit south of me this year. We have been informed that although we did not file a claim nor did we even suffer a close hit this year, that our insurance premium will go up on our home which is worth less than one third of what insurance companies are paying out to people on the shores of the Florida Coasts for mansion-like structures. It is not fair. IT is also financial damage to us since our income is fixed regardless of what the storms do.

Having said all this, mother nature is and continues to be fascinating just as a fire in the fireplace is hypnotic, but will destroy you if used or allowed to get out of control.

I don't think fascinating in this instance is a pleasurable term it is just descriptive we can't seem to stop watching nor should we.Speaking of which, is mother nature trying to teach us the entire Greek alphabet this year? I have a Greek grammar book I can read if I need to thank you very much.


Myles
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Nov 26 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

I have to agree with CaneTracker. I've lived in SW Florida for 18 years and the only reason I follow storms as close as I do is because I find them fascinating. Every storm is different and unique in their own way and its very fascinating to follow them and see what they do. I dont like hurricanes, I just find them incredibly interesting. Just like people. Some run and scream when danger comes their way, others stare in awe and wonder, everyone's a bit different.

edit: Especially this year. Katrina didn’t give us anything on the NE quad where it should have been at least rainy (here in SW FL, NO obviously got much worse and my heart goes out to them) and Wilma gave us hell on her back side when her front side was pretty weak.


ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 26 2005 01:09 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

I fully empathize with your distress, Nanci.
I live on the east coast and have been in Floirda all my life...52 years.
I've endured more hurricanes than I can recall...even as a child being brought up in Fort Lauderdale.
There is absolutely nothing fascinating nor exciting when one can finally (after getting through the local Police and Military) get back on to the barrier islands only to view massive destruction.
It is, simply...incomprehensible and heart-breaking.
I do; however; understand how weather enthusiasts would find tropical activity interesting as that is their bag.
Different strokes for different folks, man...lol. Hell, I still wear tie-dyed shirts!
For me, I've decided to move away from the ocean where I now reside and by next weekend will be living on the mainland.
I will never leave my home state of Florida.


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Sat Nov 26 2005 03:25 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

Nanci:

Unfortunately, coming into the 'conversation' late, you don't know the history. Margie has relatives who live in the MS impact zone and also she used to live down there I believe. Just because someone now lives in a place far away from hurricanes does not mean they always have!Or that they lack empathy because they think hurricanes are fascinating.

As a cracker (native) Floridian, I have been through many storms and have had storm damage...but, still find hurricanes and all storms, fascinating. That doesn't mean I don't recognize the power and danger of the storms and their destruction and it's effects on the lives in the landfall areas and beyond. I am sure this is true for Margie and for the great majority of all posters here.

A suggestion...don't 'assume', other than to accept that posters here , 99% of the time, have good intentions...as I am sure you do. And remember, context and history show true intentions and meanings....which can't be gleaned in an instant, or an afternoon.

MM


HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Nov 26 2005 06:28 PM
implied meanings

before nanci's reply i'd seen margie's post and wondered if it would end up being interpreted that way. not very surprising, since it doesn't have the canned sensitivity people are expected to include in their comments when speaking about such things. it's true that making glib or insensitive comments about another's misfortune is callous, but how much sympathy do you really need when you choose to live in a hurricane prone zone? it's not like a random tornado took a chunk out of your house.. over time things like hurricanes happen in florida, on the gulf, here in the carolinas (though not in georgia lately, it seems). do people who move to siberia get sympathy if they complain that it snows too much?
i guess the thing to take home from this is not to sound too excited or amicable about things that bring ruin to others... and not to expect pity from random folks that your dice roll of living on the gulf or southeast coast came up bad. nobody in their right mind is happy about what katrina did--it's common sense that people feel bad about it. problem is, things are what they are, no matter how you feel about them. confucius say.
HF 232926november


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Nov 26 2005 07:06 PM
Re: implied meanings

Quote:

but how much sympathy do you really need when you choose to live in a hurricane prone zone? it's not like a random tornado took a chunk out of your house.. over time things like hurricanes happen in florida, on the gulf, here in the carolinas (though not in georgia lately, it seems). do people who move to siberia get sympathy if they complain that it snows too much?




Yet at the same time people expect sympathy. When a earthquake happens in California people want support, yet they live in a earthquake prone zone. Whenever Mt. Rainer explodes people of Tacoma, Washington are going to want sympathy, even though sedimentation from previous lahars show that most of Tacoma will be covered in feet of mud.

You don't hear Japanese complaining whenever their country gets hit by an earthquake or a typhoon or a tsunami, yet they experience these things every year or so. In the same way the Dutch deal with their levee problems every decade or so, but never complain - something like 25% of the GDP goes toward their levees. Probably the difference between people that deal with it so regularly they are used to it and those people that think "it's not going to happen to me" and then when it does they bemoan "why me!" There is no area of the US that doesn't have regular dissasters of some sort, so why do we in the US have more problem accepting dissaters than other countries? I've got no clue...

--RC


P.S. I'm not trying to harrass anyone that's experienced any of the dissasters this year, but I have to agree with HF and Margie: If you live in a hurricane prone zone, you should respect nature and not be surprised when it becomes extreme. To call this past year "fascinating" is the utmost in respecting nature in all it's horror.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Nov 26 2005 07:39 PM
A Fascinating Discussion

'Fascinating' is indeed a valid word to describe the reason that many folks visit this site. It is, after all, a site for tropical weather enthusiasts to meet and share information. That fascination gets channeled in many different ways, but it does not mean that the folks here are not sensitive - they are very aware of the destruction and agony that a hurricane can inflict upon others. Your assumption was incorrect. Their interests are channeled down many avenues: to learn more about these storms, to share knowledge, to give or seek advice. If most of them were not fascinated by this raw force of Nature, they would not be here and this site would not exist because it would serve no useful purpose. I have been personally involved with these meteorological demons for over 50 years - and I still find them fascinating. I also pick up the pieces of home and property after each storm roars through the local area, and they do too. I curse the loss and the cost and the tragic consequences no matter where the storm hits - and they do too. Don't let your own sensitivity to a single word, misdirect your judgement of how others on this site may feel. We understand where your feelings are coming from - and many here have lost almost everything (except their life) yet they are still here to learn and to help others through shared experiences. Knowledge shared is knowledge gained. Its probably time to bring this particular discussion item to a close and get back to the current activity in the tropics.
Thanks,
ED


Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 26 2005 07:39 PM
Re: implied meanings

I'm 78 years old and been to sea for over 40 years, I have in my life time faced over 30 Hurricanes and Typhoons, so I have seen the tigers eye more then most of you have on here.


I been on this forum for over 2 yrs now, My feeling is that some of you as Just wishcasters looking for excitement in the trill of a storm with no respect for those who go thru a Killer Hurricane they do take lifes and one should learn to respect them and not to hope to see them strike others.

Dave


Nanci
(Registered User)
Sat Nov 26 2005 07:49 PM
Re: implied meanings

I appreciate all the feedback and now i have a better understanding...i think. All i know is my husband and i have lived in Fla for over 20 years and these last two years have been the worst. To top it all off, two days before thanksgiving, i was in a car accident and have been confined to the house - thus my posting on here. My husband posts on here under his username and he told me to check it out. Well, i did just that and read some posts and i guess i got the dander up and i started typing. Damian, my husband, read my post and kind of came down on me for my comments. He said he has lashed out before and he says he was wrong. He warned me about reading too much into others opinions and told me that normally no one intentionally bashes people. I am sorry if it came out that way. All i can say is that yes, we choose to live here so with that said, we have to deal with the weather. No different than people living in California complaining about the earth quakes. If they don't like it, then they should move! Again, my apologies. My husband has raved about this site and said that he has learned a lot from most of you, inlcuding Margie. My husband said i might get on probation or something....how do i know if i am and what does that mean?

(You are not - everyone gets a time or two - just ask your husband )


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 26 2005 11:09 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

I agree with Margie that this has been a fascinating season. Little did I know when this season started we would be hit by a major hurricane this
year. Our area was overdue for one. I have lived on the Gulf Coast all of my life and have followed the storms for a good portion of that time.
I have always found them fascinating. Getting hit by a major hurricane was no fun, however. We evacuated and were gone ten days.
We got our electricity back a lot sooner than many. But Rita was devastating for Southeast Texas with extensive damage.
I was so excited when we got our fence back up. We still don't have the roof fixed yet. Lots of people aren't able to live in their homes. But
hurricanes are something one has to deal with at one time or another if they live on the Gulf Coast. Anyway,
there have been so many records set this season and it has been interesting. I really appreciate this site because I have learned so much from
it. I will continue to follow the storms. Thanks to everyone on this site for their input.


La Nimo
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Nov 26 2005 11:34 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

I disagree with Margie that this has been a fascinating season. it was in bad taste to put it in that form on here,.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Nov 27 2005 02:26 AM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

The strong shear over Delta is really firing off the convection tonight. The AQUA-1 scan at 0356Z shows more intense convection than I think I have seen since being named, altho it is displaced a little from the center by the shear.

The low shear over SW Carib now making no difference as all the moisture from the tropical waves moved on into the eastpac, and the entire Carib covered with really dry air.

After all season of watching tropical waves move west on METEOSAT, it is so weird to look at it and watch Delta moving NE.


HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Nov 27 2005 02:33 AM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

and with that nugget of wisdom from the always tasteful la nimo, i have an important announcement:
of course 2005 was fascinating--it was a record year. believe it or not, being fascinated by something and liking something are two different things.
a little parallel:
watching the world trade towers fall on september 11th, 2001 was fascinating--i realized i was watching a moment for the ages and a shift in the direction of our nation and world. underneath the anger at the murder of my countrymen, i was aware of these things.
yes, i was utterly fascinated. no, i most definitely did not like it. simple.
margie was fascinated by 2005. i don't remember her jumping with joy when she couldn't talk to her relative in pascagoula, or cheering that people were stranded on rooftops in the big easy, or that hundreds of corpses were floating in the streets.
however, she was fascinated by the unreality of it all. so were you if you came to this site to talk about the goings on. else all you can plead is confusion.
now as mike says, the topic is tropic. not making margie out to be something she isn't. back on topic.
HF 0734z27november


ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Nov 27 2005 08:52 AM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

For the last 2 years after huricanes in my area, I'd leave a daily message on my voice mail on my cell advising family, friends, etc what conditions were like. Some folks nearby had generators so I kept my cell barely powered up and when the cell company had it's signal, I was able to listen to a few messages at a time. This really relieved all concerned on both ends...especially when I'd get messages from out-of-towners telling me what they viewed on TV enabling me information in my destroyed area.
I personally found it challenging devising and utilizing new ways to keep life simple during the aftermath of a major storm, especially 2 'canes within 3 weeks last year.
What worked best for me and many others was keeping our senses of humor intact.


Lysis
(User)
Sun Nov 27 2005 11:01 AM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

I have a quick question...

Does the NHC tracking map’s designation of H, S, D, etc, signify the storm's existence as a tropical entity, or merely wind speed? I think I remember reading it was meerly wind intensity, however considering the fact that these maps are discontinued when tropical characteristics are lost, it seems a trifle odd that they would do that.

After all season of watching tropical waves move west on METEOSAT, it is so weird to look at it and watch Delta moving NE.


I concur Margie... (not weird… fascinating!) I saved all the images of the storm deepening last night and made an extended gif. If you would like, I could email it to you for posterity.


dave foster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Nov 27 2005 12:25 PM
A Sahara Storm?

Well, who would have believed that at the end of the 2005 Hurricane Season we'd be waiting to see a tropical system land in the Sahara? Now, that's fascination in spades !!

Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Nov 27 2005 12:46 PM
Re: implied meanings

Well, it has been a fascinating season and it was this site that gave me so much information concerning Rita. I appreciate everyone who has
contributed to the site. I wonder if any season can ever top this one.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Nov 27 2005 01:34 PM
Re: implied meanings

So, now that the hurricane season is over (I'm optimistic!), what do we do around here until the next one starts? Track blizzards?

ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Nov 27 2005 01:41 PM
Re: A Sahara Storm?

I can't fathom any sort of tropical activity near or in the Sahara.

In my local area on the ocean we're getting up to 30mph gusts today and hurricane debris is still banging and rattling...lol.

The most accurate and reliable information I receive is from my local weather forecasters and The Weather Channel on TV.

I'm tickled most of you posters get a kick out of delving in to and trying to figure out Mother Nature.

She will always be at least 2 paces ahead of you.......


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Nov 27 2005 01:57 PM
Re: implied meanings

Quote:

So, now that the hurricane season is over (I'm optimistic!), what do we do around here until the next one starts? Track blizzards?



Well, for me it will be finding an online met class or two, so I can get some basics before next summer.


ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Nov 27 2005 02:13 PM
What To Do Now..?

2005 -- Season of Broken Records (SOBR...because it's hard to believe, when you are).


Indeed, Margie!

I will still be cleaning up hurricane left overs...lol.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Nov 27 2005 02:37 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

The NHC maps don't take into account tropical vs. extratropical. It'd be nice if they did, though, and certainly something they might look into for future seasons. Thus, what we are seeing with Delta is an extratropical system with winds to depression strength making landfall in Morocco. Would be "interesting" to see it make landfall as a tropical cyclone, perhaps bring some rain to areas that could probably use it, but that's probably not likely. Nevertheless, Vince has already done something similar this year -- and thus I've already taken the heat once for cutting off the tracking map we've got in the office at 20 W!

dave foster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Nov 27 2005 03:05 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

Looks like Delta might be planning on going out with a fanfare.

According to the latest vis satellite image on Navymil it now has winds of 60kts, pressure 982mb...


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Sun Nov 27 2005 04:35 PM
Canary Islands and Delta

Hey guys,
looks like Delta could actually affect the Canary Islands as a Tropical Storm on Monday. NHC is stating that winds to gale force are likely regardless of status. I guess that means if its still a tropical system it will likely be a Tropical Storm, and therefore the first to hit the islands. Not something those holidaying there would expect. Not likely to be a major event, but a significant one to those who are watching it, and possibly to those on the ground in the Canaries too. Likelihood of landfall as a Tropical Cyclone in Morocco is less, but not totally out of the question - just take Vince and Spain as an example. Certainly be watching this one closely over the next 24 hours.


HURRICANELONNY
(Weather Guru)
Sun Nov 27 2005 04:49 PM
Re: I THINK WE ALL KNOW THIS...

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/13263338.htm HAVE A WONDERFUL WINTER. SEE YA ALL IN 2006!

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Nov 27 2005 05:05 PM
Re: Canary Islands and Delta

They've been saying Delta will likely be extratropical by then, but forecasting warnings of gale force winds regardless.

This must have been something to ride out (from the discussion):

SHIP VQIB9 REPORTED 60 KT WINDS ABOUT 50 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z. THE SHIP...WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF GOOD OBSERVATIONS...ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND 25 FT SEAS


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Nov 27 2005 05:30 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

I find it amazing how Delta has had this strong a resurgance today. Wow.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Nov 27 2005 06:34 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

the surface obs at least confirm the satellite estimates from earlier... suggest they were low if anything. this kind of quality control check suggests that the intensity estimates have been low all along, and that delta was quite possibly a hurricane for a while this morning and back on friday. can't think any precedent for a post-analysis upgrade of one of these late season storms like that, so it isn't likely and all that would do is pad the season numbers a little more anyway. the storm's profile is already deteriorating and it will likely be extratropical within the next three advisory cycles.
the broad low long forecast by models is coalescing west of the speeding, transitioning delta. some of the model profiles are also showing warming relative to the environment. however, overall the feature appears quite broad on the globals. it also appears that it will reside at a slightly higher latitude than delta hovered in during its meandering stage. it will have most of the week to wander about, but i don't think it will ever get a strong, focused, convective center or make much headway in transition. global models aren't showing much else in the realm of tropical activity--early december should look typically quiet. things are unlikely to get interesting during the winter unless some very strong blocking begins to come into play.
by the way, if you haven't posted a 2006 best guess and are interested, head over to the forum and put 'er up.
HF 2334z27november


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Nov 27 2005 09:23 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

I dunno HF -- the cyclone phase analyses on that system west of Delta are pretty similar to what we saw forecast for Delta a week or so ago, with a shallow warm core (in layman's terms, a warm core at the low levels) gradually growing upward through time, reaching deep/symmetric warm core status for a brief period of time before the upper level warm core weakens. Delta actually followed much the same pattern as is forecast for this low pressure system and, according to the model representations, hasn't had a true tropical signature for a few days now. I'd say the chances of that system becoming at least a subtropical storm are about 50/50 -- depends on how the satellite signature evolves and whether or not they feel like padding the numbers with another system.

Nevertheless, it's probably the last system we'd have to look at for some period of time -- we're transitioning into nor'easter time of year (for those interested, we'll be transitioning our MM5 output into nor'easter/winter weather mode with the appropriate products for winter forecasting once tropical season finally ends). Have a good one, everyone...


HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Nov 28 2005 12:49 AM
ep?

there's a lot more convection flaring out there tonight than i'd expected. thing is, there are multiple vortices within the larger gyre. probably nothing doing until one decides to annex its neighbors' space. right now the surface low near 31/47 appears to have the best definition. the one southwest has better up environment. appears to be a weaker flare/trough to the east.
good grief. i didn't think we could fit another in, but it's awful frisky tonight.
HF 0548z28november

THE MAIN ACTION IS FROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 25W-65W WITH A MEAN
AXIS FROM A DEVELOPING 997 MB LOW NEAR 30N46W SW TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS WEEK AS THE
LOW CUTS OFF BENEATH A LARGE HIGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES.

yep, they're already watching it.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Nov 28 2005 07:37 AM
Re: ep?

Yep, another one possible...

Nutty year!

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 28 2005 08:31 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

I didn't get a chance to see it, but Fox News said some researchers think there will be more storms next year. Did anyone catch it?

tpratch
(Moderator)
Mon Nov 28 2005 08:37 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

That would be because you heard it on Fox news. There's nothing yet suggesting that we should have increasingly worse seasons year after year. We are simply in a period of increased activity, and while it could happen, we could just as easily have only 5 named storms...

Fox news is known for being overly-sensational at every opportunity, so take anything you hear there with a few pounds of salt.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 28 2005 08:50 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Trust me, I don't Trust fox on this (great grammer). They also kept calling Gamma a hurricane that would hit Florida like Wilma, when it was dying down. Not to mention that they always have JB on for a doomsday scenario.

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 28 2005 09:21 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Speaking of JB and Accuweather, as of this morning at 630am, Accuweather talked about Delta and other than that the tropics were quiet. First time i have read on that site that the tropics were quiet other than what is currently out there. Normally they list every single little thunderstorm they see, but not this time.

Question for the Mods - Now that hurricane season is winding down, what will we discuss on here, winter storms like Nor'easter's? Just wondering what is going to be appropriate for discussion.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 28 2005 09:52 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Delta is France's problem now, hope their Mets aren't on strike

This will be last advisory issued on Delta by the National Hurricane Center. Future information can be found in Meteo-France Atlantique Metarea-II marine forecasts issued under WMO header fqnt50 lfpw... and in marine bulletins issued under WMO header font50 lfpw.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 28 2005 02:49 PM
Re: ep?

Quote:

there are multiple vortices within the larger gyre. probably nothing doing until one decides to annex its neighbors' space. the surface low near 31/47 appears to have the best definition



It looks this aft like it is absorbing the others, has become larger, and has become the dominant feature.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Nov 28 2005 05:50 PM
Re: ep?

They did a SHIPS run of the system near 31N, 47W (Invest 96L), which steadily intensifies it to hurricane strength by 72 hours. The initial intensity was set to 35 knots (tropical storm force) in the model run, so it may go straight to Epsilon if NHC determines that it has become a tropical or subtropical low pressure system at some point.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 28 2005 05:54 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

Steve Masters talked about this on his blog. For all those getting upset, unless something really, really weird happens it will only be a fish spinner with a slight shot at Bermuda.

Steve also think there could be another December storm in a couple of weeks, again most likely not hitting the USA. Just his opinion.

Could we see Zeta?

Also in January do they start with "A" again or stay with the Greek alphabet until June?


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Nov 28 2005 06:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Delta Forms in Central Atlantic

We start with "A" on January 1st.

To answer the question about on-topic discussion during the winter months: there will still be occasional threads and topics on the front page with discussion, but as always there are other forums on this site where discussion of anything -- weather-related or not -- is welcome year-round. You'll probably see some nor'easter discussion there over the course of the winter, just not on the main page.


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Mon Nov 28 2005 06:26 PM
Delta's Impacts

For those interested in Delta's effects on the Canaries below is a Metar from the airport on the east side of La Palma (at 2000z today), one of the northwestern islands in the chain:

GCLA 282000Z 28040G82KT 240V330 9999 SCT015 27/10 Q0991 NOSIG

Gusts to 94 mph!

The following are from Tenerife:

GCXO 282100Z 29058G73KT CAVOK 19/14 Q0997 NOSIG=
GCXO 282130Z 06062G75KT 9999 FEW006 16/14 Q0996 NOSIG=
GCXO 282200Z 29057G72KT 9999 DZ SCT015 16/14 Q0997 NOSIG

Note the 10 minute average of 62 knots, with gusts well into Hurricane force.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Nov 28 2005 07:12 PM
Re: Delta's Impacts

NRL now has 96L listed, and NHC is continuing to mention it for possible development.


Hmm...NRL is also saying they're having a hardware issue that has broken their product updates.


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Nov 29 2005 03:59 AM
96L

ssd has rated it st 1.5 for two cycles now. an earlier scatterometer pass had some unflagged 35kt vectors, so it's at least a 'gale center'. with the deep convection flaring near the center and very weak baroclinic boundaries (maybe a warm front or occlusion to the northeast?), i'm thinking this is quickly becoming a good case for a subtropical cyclone. of course, we just got done watching delta have to fight for recognition, so it may take a couple of days. perhaps 96L has what it takes, perhaps not.
HF 0859z29november


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Nov 29 2005 04:01 AM
Can Epsilon Be Far Behind?

96L is looking a little more impressive this morning with thunderstorm tops in the -50 - 60 range near the center of circulation. T numbers are ST1.5 currently. The circulation center seems to be on the WSW edge of the Thunderstorm activity. (with a trailing set of storms due south). If I had to hazard a guess I would say the system is taking on the appearance of a small tropical system in a larger Subtropical System. The next 12 hours should be very interesting for the future of the potential storm.

Will the convection increase, or will it fall apart, leaving the system a subtropical mess?

-Mark


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Nov 29 2005 09:53 AM
Epsilon Forms!

Tropical Storm Epsilon has formed!

NHC now lists it as formed, but no discussion up yet.

WOW.


NHC Advisory:
Quote:

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE NOV 29 2005

...TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...THE 28TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
ATLANTIC SEASON...FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST OR ABOUT
845 MILES...1360 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1395 MILES...2245
KM... WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER... ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

*snip*




ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Nov 29 2005 10:12 AM
TS Epsilon

This is truly amazing,beyond words.It's like a movie that people wouldn't see because it would be unrealalistic.Scary to think what the years ahead will bring.I think in the next few years many will move away from the coast.Throw the books out!!!!

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Nov 29 2005 10:18 AM
Re: TS Epsilon

NHC Discussion is up:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml


Anyone who's interested in seeing where all our systems have been this year:
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/GifArchive/atl2005.gif


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Tue Nov 29 2005 10:20 AM
Re: TS Epsilon

WHat happens if we run ouit of Greek letters.

Again, for all those who are paranoid; Epsilon is not forcast to hit the USA.

Will it never end? Tropical Storm Epsilon forms in central Atlantic

Associated Press
Posted November 29 2005, 10:16 AM EST


MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Epsilon formed Tuesday in the central Atlantic, but it only posed a threat to shipping, forecasters said.

The 26th named storm of the busiest hurricane season on record was expected to be absorbed by other weather systems and shouldn't affect land, said Jennifer Pralgo, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

At 10 a.m. EST, Epsilon had top sustained winds of about 45 mph. It was centered about 845 miles east of Bermuda and about 1,395 miles west of the Azores Islands. It was moving west near 8 mph.



Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Nov 29 2005 10:48 AM
Re: TS Epsilon

Well this one looks a lot better than Delta when it was classified. What I don't understand though is why it is not designated subtropical rather than tropical...as it fits the definition, with some elements of tropical systems (some banding convection close to the center, a little bit of outflow...as noted by the cirrus transverse banding to the west, a circular LLC), clearly it is not a completely tropical system. Even the NHC discussion (Stewart! happy dance) says:

ALTHOUGH A BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO [BE] MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF SLOW DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES.

Sorry to continue to be confused about this. Does the NHC have a designation such that they could say "Subtropical Storm Epsilon," or do they have to designate it as TS and note that it is subtropical in the discussions? Is that what they are doing?



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