(User)

Tue Nov 29 2005 03:40 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

stewart was on duty, and after watching delta take forever to get upgraded, i guess he was less hesitant to pull the trigger. the storm still has a large windfield and could have just as easily been tagged subtropical. there is some reference to its subtropical nature in the discussion, and that's what i would have gone with. either way, it's now tropical storm number 26 of the atlantic hurricane season. 2005 is all about overkill, it seems.
for those of you speaking of running out of greek names, i wouldn't worry. there are nineteen more, and only one month to go before the year is out. your chances of winning the lottery and discovering a new planet in the next week are somewhat better.
HF 1540z29november

(Weather Master)

Tue Nov 29 2005 03:44 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic *DELETED*

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Nov 29 2005 03:55 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

Remnants of Delta are now moving inland over Morocco:

Source: Meteorlogical Department of France / http://www.meteofrance.com/FR/mer/bulGLarge.jsp?LIEUID=METAREAII

Quote:

EX-TROPICAL STORM DELTA 993 31N15W BY 29/00 UTC MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD TO INLAND MOROCCO, EXPECTED 995 31N07W BY 29/12 UTC, THEN
1000 32N04W BY 30/00 UTC.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Nov 29 2005 04:02 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

What I don't understand is why it is not designated subtropical rather than tropical...as it fits the definition, with some elements of tropical systems (some banding convection close to the center, a little bit of outflow...as noted by the cirrus transverse banding to the west, a circular LLC), clearly it is not a completely tropical system. Even the NHC discussion (Stewart! happy dance) says:

ALTHOUGH A BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO [BE] MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF SLOW DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES.

Sorry to continue to be confused about this. Does the NHC have a designation such that they could say "Subtropical Storm Epsilon," or do they have to designate it as TS and note that it is subtropical in the discussions? Is that what they are doing?

(Weather Guru)

Tue Nov 29 2005 04:30 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

It looks like this will be the 4th of 5 years with a named system in Decemeber (2001, 2003, 2004, 2005).

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Nov 29 2005 04:53 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

No. Tropical is Tropical. If it was Subtropical they would call it Subtropical Storm Epsilon. IMO it is Tropical. The Subtropical nonsense is kind of overkill to me. Don't think my roof cares if its sub or not.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Nov 29 2005 05:11 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

Quote:

No. Tropical is Tropical. IMO it is Tropical.

Can you objectively explain why so that I'll understand. These are the pieces that are missing for me: 1) no way without recon to see banding and how well it has wrapped around the center, 2) not enough data to judge the temps, especially vertically, is it warm core, is it vertical or tilted (and the question of vertical was really was more of a question with Delta, at times, rather than with Epsilon right at this moment), and 3) is there a wind gradient towards the center, or just a large spread-out windfield.

Quote:

If it was Subtropical they would call it Subtropical Storm Epsilon.

Is this for certain? Has NHC ever used that designation in the past?

Quote:

The Subtropical nonsense is kind of overkill to me.

See now that doesn't work for me now that I've been trying for over a week to understand subtropical vs tropical. There is clearly a state of transition between the cut-off low and conversion to full tropical storm, i.e.subtopical, a valid state. One of the things I'm wondering about is that it does not seem to be all one-directional. Seems like making the call to tropical too soon in this type of environment (end of season mid-ATL, soon to be extratrop in any case), is problematic because the storm still transitions back and forth between subtropical and tropical, or doesn't ever quite make it to tropical (banding and convection at the eye fall apart, comes back). Is that a wrong assumption? During this time, is it staying warm core? Or does that vascillate as well?

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Nov 29 2005 05:15 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

Quote:

Quote:

If it was Subtropical they would call it Subtropical Storm Epsilon.

Is this for certain? Has NHC ever used that designation in the past?

Yes, NHC has used Subtropical in the past.

weatherwatcher999

(Verified CFHC User)

Tue Nov 29 2005 05:31 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

subtropical, tropical... whatever, it's still number 26

I am flabbergasted to look into NHC and see yet another named storm!-possibly a december hurricane???-no, that doesn't sound right...

btw, i think delta did reach hurricane strength, and this one has a fair chance, if it gets moving...

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Nov 29 2005 06:06 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

Delta, from BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4482384.stm (free)

Quote:

Tropical storm batters Canaries

A tropical storm has lashed the Canary Islands, killing at least seven people and leaving a trail of destruction.

Many people are still without electricity, while some roads have been blocked by fallen trees and landslides.

At least six African migrants drowned when waves engulfed their makeshift boat. A man also died after being blown off his roof on Fuerteventura.

Winds gusted at up to 200 km/h (124 miles per hour) in parts of Tenerife, disrupting public services.

*snip*

(User)

Tue Nov 29 2005 07:00 PM

delta in the canaries

the hook i got (from jeff masters blog) was sustained winds to 71mph, gusts in the 80s in tenerife... and a gust to 94mph in la palma. this stuff paired with the 60kt ship report northwest of the center yesterday does suggest the storm was a hurricane and was being operationally underrated. at times late last week it also had a banding eye structure, even though it was under modest shear and appeared to be vertically tilted at other times. it actually looks like epsilon will be the only one of the 'greek storms' to not affect land in some way, as alpha and gamma induced flood casualties in the caribbean, and beta hit nicaragua as a solid hurricane though luckily no one was killed. post-tropical delta is probably one of the worst storms of record in those islands--they tend to be dominated by subtropical high pressure and fair weather most of the time.
i sort of agree with margie on the whole subtropical classification thing. it isn't consistently used--at least, not like it was in the 1970s, though several of those systems would likely be considered tropical today. having a consistent policy on how these things are classified, as well as remaining consistent with the historic record... is pretty tough, apparently.
HF 1900z29november

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Tue Nov 29 2005 07:16 PM

Re: delta in the canaries

HF-
Hi.... You understand your -NAO... We have been vying for that during the past 10 days, pulsing in and out of representation in the verification - poorly modeled along the way - but never the less, having that be the case... In any event, the -NAO usually has a corresponding negative height anomaly situated anywhere from the Azores to the current area of rotation, in which Epsilon is apparently embedded..

I just wanted to state... It is utterly extraordinary that we are seeing a counter part negative anomaly, normally associated with an NAO, and also one that is climatologically a cold core latitudinally underpinning feature, be expressing as a hybrid generator..

It must purely be a function of very strong positive SST anomalies and exceptional +Tripole state. By the way, the SSTs around Greenland/above 50N in the Atlantic Basin are approaching terrifying +anomalies as they are nearing 5C in some areas where we normally see subduction water chimneys from very cold arctic SST interfacing with intermediate GS waters... That is absolutely....incredible the magnitude of that departure. ....Additionally, it makes one wonder how warm the northern Atlantic can become before some of those conveyor breakdown theories may be tested!

understand nao? i know what it is, but can't do much more than read it. it does all sorts of strange things. as for epsilon and delta, i thought that hybrids out there usually formed during these blocking events, when the nao- low was displaced further south than normal. i dunno.. in a hyper active year where the atlantic is trying to cough up as much energy to the higher latitudes as possible, it just makes sense that the atmospheric circulation is primed to send surges of energy (or tropical cyclones, if it pleases) up every so often. noted that surge into the gulf during the last few days, and the recent trend for cold air surges into the east to be blunted or advance slowly against the tendency for air masses near the atlantic to stay or return quickly if repulsed. winter is going to try to break that down... i've got a hunch that a progressive march of polar air masses is going to start hammering away at the east this winter, trying to equalize the anomalous warmth in the atlantic. -HF

Frog

(Registered User)

Tue Nov 29 2005 07:26 PM

Re: delta in the canaries

Hello you all !

I"ve been "following" the hurricane season since Katrina (sadly, I have to own up that, sometimes, it takes a big catastrophe for people to get focused on something). I found this site while looking for info on Katrina.

I decided to log in when I saw that the NHC was discontinuing advisories because Delta had become extratropical. Now I read a post saying that it reached 124 mph in the canaries. That is bigger than Beta... Can you explain me why has is not been upgraded to hurricane even if it is extratropical ?

Thanks in advance

The Frog

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Nov 29 2005 07:41 PM

Re: delta in the canaries

Frog, NHC discontinued advisories becuase they transfered it to France's metoerology department which handles weather in the waters off Africa (why they didn't do that for Vince I don't know...).

Here's the quote from the last Delta discussion:

Quote:

THIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON DELTA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN METEO-FRANCE ATLANTIQUE
METAREA-II MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW...
AND IN MARINE BULLETINS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FONT50 LFPW.

And if you look at France's site, you can see the info (in English): http://www.meteofrance.com/FR/mer/bulGLarge.jsp?LIEUID=METAREAII

--

Typhoon_Tip, what's your source for SST anomalies? NHC's model doesn't got that far north.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Tue Nov 29 2005 08:26 PM

Re: delta in the canaries

Quote:

Typhoon_Tip, what's your source for SST anomalies? NHC's model doesn't got that far north.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/EPS.html

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Nov 29 2005 09:23 PM

Re: delta in the canaries

Floater is on Epsilon now.

I was wondering if the high level winds are, basically, westerlies (from the SW), then why am I seeing the area south of Epsilon where cloud tops are trailing to the W?

I was wondering could this be the dissipating low that was just south of it, because it didn't seem like outflow, except just immediately south of the center.

Also, it seems like the convection around the center has died off a bit. But it looks like Epsilon is going to be in an area of decreased shear for awhile, so that it'll build up some steam again overnight.

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Tue Nov 29 2005 09:46 PM

Re: delta in the canaries

Hi guys,
the 94 mph gust recorded in La Palma, Canary Islands, associated with Delta is probably not that representative. From what i can gather it was recorded at the La Palma airport which sits to the east of high ground. The winds were at the time blowing from west to east, and therefore the local environment could well have played some part in this unusually high gust. General gusts over the Canaries were somewhat less.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Nov 29 2005 11:39 PM

Re: delta in the canaries

To answer Margie's question: the distinction, at times, can be quite subjective. That's likely what happened here. We're trying to make it more objective, but when model resolution and data availability isn't enough to complete the task, a small subjective factor is introduced. That's probably what we're seeing here.

To answer Frog's question: they discontinued advisories as it was no longer a tropical system. Non-tropical systems can produce high winds -- as people along the Washington and Oregon coastlines have seen the past few days -- even to hurricane force, yet have no characteristics of tropical systems. Delta had transitioned into such a storm, thus the handoff by the NHC.

danielw

(Moderator)

Tue Nov 29 2005 11:59 PM

Is it Over?

T minus 24 hours and counting.
The Official 2005 Hurricane Season will be over!
I had heard mention of the "Epsilon" area of concern yesterday. Now Epsilon is a named storm.

On a side note. NBC Nightly News was live from New Orleans tonight... 3 Months after Katrina.

Ed Dunham

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Wed Nov 30 2005 02:46 AM

A Reminder

Although this remarkable season is finally nearing an end, the site rules still apply. Please stay on-topic and post your items in the appropriate Forums.
Thanks,
ED

Frog

(Registered User)

Wed Nov 30 2005 10:02 AM

Re: Is it Over?

In 2003 there were Peter and Odette in december. I think the counting is not over yet. I have the feeling that the late season storms and hurricanes have a tendency to go east instead of west at the beginning of the season... If so, is there a meteorological reason for this.

Domino

(Weather Guru)

Wed Nov 30 2005 10:27 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

I am curious - and maybe this isn't the right forum and if it isn't I'm sure one of our great admins will move this for me. Anyway - does anyone think there is or will be discussion on extending the hurricane season dates? Should hurricane season end December 15th or 31st? Should it start earlier? I would think a consistant "pre-season" storm(s) or consistant "post season" storm(s) would lead to extending the dates. We know mother nature sure doesn't listen to our seasons...maybe we need to consider listening a bit to hers?

(Weather Master)

Wed Nov 30 2005 12:29 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

The sun-sentinel.com has an interesting article on this season (so far). It's a good read.

ltpat228

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Nov 30 2005 02:47 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

We know mother nature sure doesn't listen to our seasons...maybe we need to consider listening a bit to hers?

LOL...Mother Nature will always do her own thing no matter what time of year.
It's time to cease attempting to control the uncontrolable....

well, considering that this will only be the ninth out of 163 storms since 1995 that didn't exist entirely within the season, i'd say the idea of a hurricane season still applies. i do wish congress would listen to you about controlling the uncontrollable, as they've recently added more money to the 'storm modification' budget than to the nhc's budget. that's our elected officials for ya. -HF

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Nov 30 2005 03:34 PM

Re: A Reminder

The ambiguity with the naming convention continues. From this morning's NHC discussion, "THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE," and speculation from Jeff Master's blog: "Epsilon is really a hybrid between a tropical storm and a regular extratropical storm, but its winds are nevertheless of tropical storm strength. Both Delta and Epsilon are more properly termed 'subtropical' storms, but I guess the Hurricane Center has stopped calling storm 'subtropical' to avoid confusion."

Admin Note: The gentleman is incorrect - NHC still uses the 'Subtropical' designation. A recent example is STD 22 - this year - in October.

Epsilon improved a little overnight. A 91H scan from early this morning showed convection curving around over 50% of the broad center, but Epsilon is still under a cyclonic flow in the upper atmosphere. It is hard for me to tell if what I am seeing on the visual is outflow. Convection remains organized within a fairly symmetric circular area fairly close to the center, so at this point Epsilon looks more tropical than Delta ever did, but it seems to be broadening rather than tightening up, and not so connected to the LLC, which can be seen through the large open center.

* * * * *

Just read the 10am. Should have looked more carefully before posting. Can clearly see on both the visual and especially on the wv loop, dry air coming right into the center and then reducing the moisture in all of the convection. From the NHC discussion, "DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY."

It looks like there isn't much intensification in the near future: "GIVEN THAT EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER MARGINAL SSTS OF 23-24C AND THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING OCCURS. HOWEVER ...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH."

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Nov 30 2005 07:37 PM

Re: A Reminder

I'm seeing something that I don't understand. The cloud tops or just below the tops around Epsilon are being sheared in a circular direction but it isn't outflow and it isn't shear. Is it because Epsilon is under a larger cyclonic motion, but moving faster underneath?

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Nov 30 2005 07:45 PM

Re: A Reminder

Glad to see this historic season "officially" come to a close today, though we still have epsilon spinning in the middle of the Atlantic.
After being directly affected by Katrina & Wilma(roof damage), i'm ready for the 2006 season to be quiet or at least normal as far as the numbers of storms developing, though my hunch is that it will probably be above active again.
See you all in 2006!

TG

(Weather Guru)

Wed Nov 30 2005 08:51 PM

Re: Dr. Gs forecast

Speaking of which, isn't it out tomorrow...or is it the 6th??

MM

(Meteorologist)

Wed Nov 30 2005 09:22 PM

Re: A Reminder

It's part of a large cyclonic gyre associated with Epsilon. It still has some extratropical/subtropical features associated with it -- well, largely in its environment -- thus the pattern that you are seeing.

Of note, the trough that is forecast to capture Epsilon and accelerate it toward the east is projected to be of negative tilt -- meaning that it tilts back toward the west with increasing latitude -- as it slides over the Canadian Maritime region in a few days. I wouldn't be surprised to see Epsilon slide a bit further north (of east) or move a bit slower than forecast if that evolution holds. I'm discounting some model runs that have been taking it NW into the Canadian Maritimes on the east side of that trough, but wouldn't be surprised to see it move a tick further north than expected down the line. Largely, the impacts of such a track would only be to shipping interests.

(Weather Master)

Wed Nov 30 2005 09:34 PM

Re: Dr. Gs forecast

D Day is December 6th for next year's prediction

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Nov 30 2005 11:17 PM

Re: A Reminder

Thanks much for answering my question.

Well it looks like even though convection is increasing, dry air is once again eating into the circulation, big time.

(User)

Wed Nov 30 2005 11:24 PM

epsilon lookin' good

structurally i'd have to say epsilon is likely a hurricane. it doesn't have the extensive deep convection of a low latitude tropical system, but there's a slightly better internal structure... clear circular banding and a fairly large eye... than delta ever had while it was looking good late last week. it doesn't have very good t-ratings, but those tend to underdo sheared or hybrid systems, and this is definitely one of the latter.
got a hunch that delta will be post analyzed as a hurricane. epsilon has a good shot at being operationally upgraded into one during the next couple of forecast cycles, i'd also say.
the season ends at 7pm eastern, if you go by GMT. epsilon thinks it's still on, apparently.
HF 2324z30november
well, near 1 pm on Thursday and it hasn't made it. but then, a few days ago i thought the models had to be overdoing it and that it wouldn't form. been on both sides of wrong on this one... -HF

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Dec 01 2005 01:17 AM

Re: epsilon lookin' good

Quote:

structurally i'd have to say epsilon is likely a hurricane.

Well, sure...I noted the convection has increased, and the 4pm advis says, "JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS NEEDED TO MAKE EPSILON A HURRICANE." But dry air has eaten its way around, almost to the very wide center, and that normally has a negative effect on tropical storm organization. Is that not so important with this type of storm?

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Thu Dec 01 2005 04:56 AM

Re: epsilon lookin' good

I am glad that this hurricane "season" is over. How much did we learn this year? A lot...especially from Katrina. Can you (we) believe that yesterday was the 3 month anniversary of Katrina? Watching it unfold again on TV was so very sad...but the human spirit in this country remains alive and well.
As for Epsilon, may I say a last "farewell" to that storm...uh,, actually I didn't even know it existed until a couple of days ago.
Anyway..thanks for all the things you have taught me. I'm just glad there is a place I can come to when storms approach to learn things and help others learn, too.
I'll be keeping a close eye on the winter weather, as I think we are in for a heck of a wintery season.

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Thu Dec 01 2005 05:00 AM

Re: Dr. Gs forecast

Let's hope he has will lower his expectations for next year's season...I'm almost afraid to look!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Dec 01 2005 05:16 PM

Re: epsilon lookin' good

Well Epsilon lost some ground and then gained it right back this morning, again. Only today it'll be moving northeast instead of southwest, but otherwise another wait to see it if makes it to hurricane strength.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Dec 01 2005 06:10 PM

Re: Dr. Gs forecast

Deleted what I had already written! So try again:
Tropical Storm Risk (TRO.com) the British group which services the insurance industry, and which was very accurate in their August update, also issues their report on the 5th, I think. Pay attention to that one too.

Drudge Report today had an urgent article about the receding Gulf Stream and it potential effects on Great Britain. That would be a good topic to discuss in a forum, as the Global Warmers are all over this. (ironically it will cool things off if true).

Any chance that 1935 actually had 22+ storms? After all who would know? There was no satellite system from which things like Delta and Episilon could be seen more or less quantified.

Inquiring mind(s) want to know.

(Weather Master)

Thu Dec 01 2005 06:54 PM

Re: Dr. Gs forecast

There has been and still is conversation on how accurate the amount of storms there were each year prior to satellites. Also, bear in mind that they have only been tracking these storms for 150 years, there were billions of years history before that.

Just food for thought.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Dec 01 2005 11:06 PM

Re: Circulation

3.87 N, 47.10 weat at @1800 12/1....very low, but if it gains latitude...

some very fierce convection about to skim north coast of S. America...-80 tops or colder just n of the 'center'...what's up with this?

MM

(Weather Guru)

Thu Dec 01 2005 11:10 PM

Re: Epsilon outflow jet?

Looks like an upper low is forming just east of Epsilon and an outflow jet might be developing on the east side of Epsilon, causing a real flare up of convection...it might make hurricane 'officially' tonight, after a while the low should hurt Epsilon more than help, but right now...it is helping.

So it appears...feedback is welcome! :?:

MM

Or maybe not...now looks like it is falling apart...but the comvection off S America looks like it is turnin' and burning...and gaining latitude...I see a flare up in EastPac too, altho very limited...MJO time?

MM

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Dec 02 2005 02:17 AM

Re: Circulation

Quote:

3.87 N, 47.10 weat at @1800 12/1....very low, but if it gains latitude...some very fierce convection about to skim north coast of S. America...-80 tops or colder just n of the 'center'...what's up with this?

MM

I saw that this aft and wondered what could come of it as well, if anything. The remainder of the Carib has been pretty quiet this week, for the most part (I'm sure to the relief of Cuba and Central America).

Quote:

Or maybe not...now looks like it is falling apart...

Actually it looks like it is on the upswing again now. Looking at the wv loop, the center has cleared out and convection is starting to build and wrap around again, even though it continues to be vulnerable to the drier air from the west.

weatherwatcher999

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Dec 02 2005 02:49 AM

Re: Circulation

Either way, NHC looks like they don't want to name this thing a hurricane. The visible images this afternoon showed a well-defined eye+circulation, and higher cloud tops... I was pretty sure the 5 AST advisory would pin epsilon as cat. 1. They did move it to 70, but the satellite images and estimates thought we had hurricane number 14 too. Maybe NHC doesn't want to break every darn record in a season

However, the most recent ir/water vapor images show the south west of the storm being taken over by drier air (i think), and it'll be a "miracle of tropical cyclones" if it gets it's act together and becomes a 65 knotter.

Maybe cindy will be designated as a hurricane in the post analysis, and emily-possibly cat. 5?-Interesting stuff, those year-end reviews.

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Dec 02 2005 03:47 AM

Re: Circulation

Interesting, given all the power storms this year, the only one that affected us here in MD was Cindy.

It also isn't long before the preditions for next year are out. That, combined with Typhoon Tip's comments on the SSTs around Greenland, promise to make this winter an interesting one.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Fri Dec 02 2005 02:38 PM

Hurrican Epsilon

It's now a hurricane,I ran out of words for this season.So I will let others comment on this insane season.Waiting for the 2006 forcast on Dec 6th.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Dec 02 2005 03:27 PM

Re: Circulation

Quote:

Actually it looks like it is on the upswing again now.

HF hope you're watchin'... Hurricane Epsilon!

The organization has really improved overnight, with the continuation of a distinct spiral band, and from sat images it can be seen that by early morning convection wrapped completely around the center, which for the first time looks without question like an eye, and also for the first time a considerable amount of outflow can be seen as well. The eye is starting to cloud over, so this phase might be pretty short-lived. However Epsilon looks completely tropical at this point. Without starting a big hassle...it always appeared to me that Epsilon continued to be subtropical because it had not completely acquired tropical characteristics, even though convection was always being maintained close to the center. But now the outflow is starting to show up as anticyclonic motion at 100-250mb levels for the first time, as just a little deviation from the westerlies, on the north side of the cyclone, where the strongest outflow is occuring.

Psyber

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Dec 02 2005 03:40 PM

Re: Circulation

Thankfully it's just a fish spinner but wow, can you beleive it? I'm looking outside here and we've had a foot of snow in the last 3 hours and hurricanes are STILL occuring.

Hell, why not just keep the hurricane season going 365 days a year from now on lol. Goes much longer and we'll be into next season.

I changed my signature to reflect the season we've had.

(Weather Master)

Fri Dec 02 2005 03:40 PM

Re: Circulation

I read that 97% of all hurricanes form between June & November. I guess we're watching the other 3%.

(User)

Fri Dec 02 2005 05:41 PM

record keeping

epsilon just kicked the numbers a littler higher, but they may go higher yet without any more activity.
the november monthly report includes some end-of-season factoids that are interesting and may skew the numbers a little more. apparently the nhc is considering post-analyzing cindy as a minimal hurricane (we were talking about that back in july when it flared a little stronger just before landfall and doppler estimates and recon wind reductions suggested that it briefly produced hurricane force winds). the peak of emily is also being reconsidered, as per the operational note that it may have been a category 5 for a brief period in the caribbean at the time. there is also the issue of the hrd guys wanting to down katrina at landfall a category based on their research. i'll be interested to read the post season report, as it looks like vince will remain as operationally analyzed a tropical depression at landfall in spain... in spite of some surface reports that were very close to t.s. strength. no word on what they plan to do about delta, but i have suspcions there too.
saw a picture of the hurricane center board in an AP story earlier (no link). on the board cindy was upgraded to a hurricane, emily was still a cat 4, and wilma's max winds were just a tad higher (185 mph). it looks like the number of hurricanes will be skewed just a little higher, at least.
HF 1741z02december

(Weather Guru)

Fri Dec 02 2005 07:24 PM

Re: Typo

Hmm, HF...don't think you meant 185 on Wilma....or did you mean Katrina??

MM

oh yeah...it might have been 185 before it got in the Gulf....too many storms!!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Dec 02 2005 09:03 PM

Re: Typo

The NHC TPC 4pm discussion about the model tracks was very droll. I like how the season is winding down:

SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE EPSILON HAS REMAINED ON TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY... THAT CAN NOT BE SAID FOR THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS MADE A HUGE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
...
HOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE... NOGAPS... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT MATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Dec 02 2005 10:05 PM

Re: record keeping

I've got a pretty good hunch we'll see Cindy upgraded to a hurricane in the best-track data...

In any case, that'd make 15 hurricanes -- and if Delta gets upgraded, which probably isn't as likely, 16 hurricanes -- just adding to the overall numbers.

Quite possibly, Epsilon will be the last storm on the board for 2005. The tropics aren't really condusive to anything and a large blocking low toward the NW of Epsilon isn't ready to let go, making any future subtropical/tropical development in the northern Atlantic unlikely after Epsilon is gone. Then again, Epsilon may just hang around instead of head off into the great blue yonder and go extratropical -- not quite sure on that. The more northward motion that I thought about a few days ago hasn't really panned out and I don't see anything that would result in it doing so unless that low were to kick out toward the east. Nevertheless, here we are on December 2nd with a hurricane in the basin.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Dec 02 2005 10:40 PM

Re: EastPac???????

It lokks like...can it be?

A disturbance forming sw of Mex in the EastPac.hhhmmm Well, in this SOBR (hat tip to Margie), whyyyy not?

MM

(EastPac posts belong in the Other Storm Basins Forum)

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Dec 02 2005 11:24 PM

Re: EastPac???????

Just checked SSD and the model runs. Interesting movements on Epsilon...

NOGAPS and GFS are sending Epsilon into a loop-d-loop mode with it moving south then west again early next week.

UKMET wraps it north and absorbs it into an extra-tropical system.

CMC doesn't do much of anything...

---

(Off topic material removed)

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Dec 02 2005 11:27 PM

Re: EastPac???????

(Post deleted in error)

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Dec 03 2005 01:16 AM

Re: EastPac???????

no telling - by the end of the loop it is about due south of where it is now - and that's 6 days out.

Also, look at the SSMIS Microwave pass - it clearly shows 2/3rds of an eyewall existing:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/29L.EPSILON/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/thumb/Latest.html

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Dec 03 2005 02:24 AM

Re: EastPac???????

Well, it would appear that for the second (third?) evening in a row, drier air is eating into Epsilon's spiral band into the center.

You know, it just occured to me...we need a Zeta, we absolutely do. Because we have seen everything this season, haven't we? So we should be able to say that for once, we have seen everything from A to Z. Fate would not let this once-in-a-lifetime literary opportunity pass us by. And we can't use phrases like, "Everything but the kitchen sink," as thousands of kitchen sinks must have been sent travelling by Kat's surge alone...

* * * * * * *

Found the big board photo, and it is attached. It looks like they ran out of white letters, especially the number 5 (LOL there is even one green 5, probably pulled from one forecaster's fridge or something).

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Dec 03 2005 04:23 AM

Re: EastPac???????

Frankly, given how few years have X, Y, and Z, why can't we use those letters also? We could have Xena and Xavier, Yelsta and Yuri, and Zelda and Zed. And, unless you have to retire one, we can always alternate between years.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Dec 03 2005 04:47 AM

Re: EastPac???????

Want a good laugh? Go look at the latest sat loop. Eps has been going due east, and will miss the 2nd track forecast point. Can't wait to see the morning track forecast.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Dec 03 2005 08:23 AM

Epsilon

Good ol' Ep is looking better than ever and headed south of the track...how long it hang on?!

(User)

Sat Dec 03 2005 09:30 PM

make it stop....

thought the storm was looking better this morning. in the latest discussion they've taken the storm up a notch--because it's obviously stronger. we've seen intensification out of hurricanes over 'below threshold' waters before. under the right conditions they can just ignore the rules. this seems like an appropriate way to end the 2005 hurricane season.. another storm getting stronger than it's supposed to be.
now, if only the season would end...
you hear that zeta? wait til 2006, you can be alberto. not go around sounding like some sorority chick.
HF 2130z03december

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Dec 04 2005 12:58 AM

Run away! Run away!

Epsilon is behaving just like brave, brave Sir Robin, and running away from the westerlies and dry air, but just one step ahead.

Wow, Epsilon looks amazingly good on the sat images! Water vapor image attached. I see they increased the intensity...and continued amazement that the intensity has held, and more, under the conditions.

My met friend was lamenting that there wasn't some way they could find the money in the budget to do at least one recon, since nobody really knows what is going on for hurricanes to flourish under these conditions, and it would be really interesting to have some data.

Ed Dunham

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sun Dec 04 2005 03:31 AM

Epsilon Endures

Epsilon is still a minimal Cat I Hurricane at 04/03Z with sustained winds of 65 knots. The storm is actually moving into an area of very light wind shear for about the next 48 hours, so it may hang together as a tropical entity for a couple of days. The projected forecast track moves it into slightly warmer SSTs (24-25C) as it heads south and southwest in a couple of days, however, it will eventually hit the southern jet near 27N 38W and that should reduce it to a low level swirl. Quite a season.
ED

Tak

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Dec 04 2005 12:25 PM

Re: Epsilon Endures

Looks like this thing still has legs. On the IR floater loop ending at 11:15 Z, there is still good convection (although the cloud top temps are a little warmer) with wrap around banding and a well formed eye feature. It cant be the water temps keeping this thing going. Is it because the coriolis effect is greater at that lattitude?

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Dec 04 2005 02:39 PM

Re: Epsilon Endures

Epsilon just keeps looking better and better. It's got the form of a storm that should be stronger than it is, but the cool SSTs are probably keeping its strength down.

Look at the visible and Microwave - fully wrapped core now, and very good signature:

Visible: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...RODUCT=1km_zoom
Microwave: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks

Dvorak estimates that just came are at 4.5...that's strong Cat 1...up from the weak cat1 that the 4am discussion talks about.

Also, if you look at it's 5-day track, it's heading toward the Carribean...uh oh. And given it's resiliancy to atmospheric and model attempts to rip it appart or weaken it...

(Weather Guru)

Sun Dec 04 2005 03:08 PM

Re: Hangin Tough Epsilon..the little storm that could!

Old Eppy has got at least three things going for him:

1. Strong poleward outflow channel has established itself on the west side....good evacuation going on, hence, lowering pressures, hence enhanced inflow. This is the major factor right now in the intensification.

2. Good 'storm dynamics'--that is to say that Epsilon is making the most of it's environment and is a very efficient heat engine right now...that is basically what hurricanes are, heat engines. Epsilon is squeezing lots of output out of it's input.

3. Increased forward speed= increased translation enhancement of wind speeds...but this is a minor factor.

Also, other factors, as have been mentioned elsewhere....higher latitude= enhanced coriolis effect. Also, the upper tropospheric temps may be a factor.

Some storms just seem to have that 'hang tough' thing more than others. Epsilon sure has that! He is the "junkyard dog" of the hurricane season, for sure (Vince did a pretty good imitation of that too).

Just another oddity of the 2005 season (how much you want to bet that we only see it as an oddity...because we haven't seen enough hurricane seasons (well documented that is) over time....maybe this is NORMAL ?!)

Avila sure is bemused...what a fun discussion this am!

MM

ps....it also seems that Eppy is coming out of, or still in, an ER Cycle....that is interesting...as another poster said, EPPY would be MUCH STRONGER over warmer waters...if that jet doesn't take him apart...hmmmmm?

Fuzzy

(Registered User)

Sun Dec 04 2005 03:15 PM

Re: Hangin Tough Epsilon..the little storm that could!

Back up to a hurricane now 75kts and 979mb central pressure. NRL has had those stats since 8am EST which had me wondering why it was downgraded- but per the 11am advisory they're back on track

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Dec 04 2005 04:01 PM

Re: Hangin Tough Epsilon..the little storm that could!

I just read the 10am discussion. Avila sure has a sense of humor, and I guess all they can do is sit back and laugh after everything that has transpired in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. I looked at the visible and IR loops after reading the 4am advisory package and thought "That's not a 70 mph tropical storm, it's a hurricane", but that was a few hours after the advisory, so maybe it did weaken overnight. Satellite estimates are just that, estimates. Also looking at the loop, it appears Epsilon is moving north of due east now, and not making the turn south that is forecast. Maybe it's following the UKMET guidance?

In any case, one thing I am absolutely, 100% certain of. The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season WILL finally come to an end in no more than 27 days. Then we can start preparing to track Alberto.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Dec 04 2005 06:40 PM

You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions!

The last one, from Avila, had me ROTFLMAO:

THERE ARE NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING

...

AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?

By way of explanation...in his last two forecasts (Sat am and aft) Avila had stated that Epsilon will likely become a remnant low.

You know we have all hung in there through this long season (which I only joined in mid-July) and we have had our punch-drunk everything-strikes-us-silly moments, but this has got to be some interesting experience for these guys, on the front line forecasting all year. I just hope they have one heck of an end-of-season party (they may have to wait until after New Year to have it).

Just before 8am CST Epsilon really looked beatifully symmetric; attaching another sat image (infared). Dry air seems to be cutting into the center circulation now.

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Dec 04 2005 06:53 PM

Re: You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions!

Yeah, Epsilon did look excellent then - here's a visible sat of it from about 3-4 hours ago.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Dec 04 2005 06:58 PM

Re: You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions!

I was just looking at the MODIS highres from about the same time (it didn't catch all of the storm, but luckily the center), and looking at the detail in the eye. It is remarkably well-formed considering Epsilon is not a very strong hurricane, and has some interesting features. It is another unusual feature of this storm, to see an eye that looks in some respects like the eye of a major hurricane. It sure would be interesting to know what is going in inside that storm.

* * * * * * *

The wind shear has really started to kick in on the 1845Z. It looks like the outflow must have diminished quite a bit (due to the dry air coming in?). How many times can this storm cycle? Should we expect another resurgence in the morning?

I'm thinking probably not, that the strengthening from this morning was due to a pocket of lower shear, as very little shear was noticeable from this morning's vis images. Or...the shear that was there could have been displaced by some very strong outflow. Or...how's this for a crazy theory: somehow it did get some energy from the front to the north, even though it appears to be 100% tropical. Maybe in the colder temp environment there is some as-yet-undefined bizarre baroclinic process that can occur.

(User)

Sun Dec 04 2005 07:48 PM

Re: You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions!

it is interesting to note... because of the inner core symmetry and large eye, if the hurricane were to have deeper convection it probably would get satellite ratings in the cat 3 range. the storm has a ~50nm eye and a nearly complete ring of moderate convection--that's about the closest thing you can get to an annular hurricane in december, i guess.
noticed that jeff masters is speculating that the upper ridging that gfs is forecasting in the caribbean may allow something else to wake up. nothing real convincing on the models in that respect (disturbances on gfs and nogaps, but the easterly flow is too strong at low levels when the 'feature' isn't right along the coast of south america). gfs also hints at another cutoff out in the eastern atlantic around mid-month. no consistency on that, thus far.
HF 1948z04december

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Dec 05 2005 07:20 AM

Here we go again

I've lost track now of how many times Epsilon's convection has waned and improved, but it is sure looking good tonight (again). Convection has wrapped around the center again, looking as good as it has every looked, it still appears to be steady-state, and while not as prominent as today, there is still decent outflow. It's diving south pretty quickly. It certainly doesn't look like it is under 30+ knots of wind shear, but I'm guessing this must have to do with shallow convection? It's a little confusing; I don't know if I'll log in tomorrow to find a Cat 2 hurricane or something that has started being ripped to shreads.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Dec 05 2005 07:46 AM

Re: Here we go again

Quote:

I've lost track now of how many times Epsilon's convection has waned and improved, but it is sure looking good tonight (again). Convection has wrapped around the center again, looking as good as it has every looked, it still appears to be steady-state, and while not as prominent as today, there is still decent outflow. It's diving south pretty quickly. It certainly doesn't look like it is under 30+ knots of wind shear, but I'm guessing this must have to do with shallow convection? It's a little confusing; I don't know if I'll log in tomorrow to find a Cat 2 hurricane or something that has started being ripped to shreads.

No kidding, this thing is like the zombie of the 2005 season; shoot it and it keeps coming at you...

UKCloudgazer

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Dec 05 2005 08:08 AM

Re: Here we go again

Went to bed wondering if this was the beginning of the end for TS Epsilon, woke up to find Hurricane Epsilon happy as ever.

Frustrating to have so little information about what is keeping Ep going, but at least we have satellites. I like the models this morning - CMC gets rid of Ep and seems to be starting another in the same place, GFS and NOGAPS have the world's most intense system ever cropping up later in the week - getting a moire pattern off the isobars.

And people wondered what we'd talk about after the end of the Hurricane Season.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Mon Dec 05 2005 09:11 AM

Re: Here we go again

I think the storm is going to be around a bit longer. Until The eyewall collapses, I think the storm will create enough of it's own Environment to keep things together. If I had a theory on why the storm has held together so well.

1) The Storm is in steady state, The low water tempratures are death to a system that is disrupted, but for a system that's together, the tempratures don't have to be a magical number.

1a) The storm has also not drifted into REALLY cold water, which most storms usually do once they head off to the norht and east, this storm managed to keep from 'falling off the deep end' so to speak

Tying it all together, A low shear environment, and a storm that has managed to aquire shallow but warmcore characteristics. upper level shear, does almost nothing to this storm. There's no way a storm could *form* like this, but once formed, as we've seen before, storms are tenacious buggers. and without shear or super cold temps. there's no reason for it not to keep going.

of course, I'm also looking at this in hindsight. So maybe in the future in a similar circumstance it won't catch us quite by suprise. I also notice they keep the storm a hurricane for another 24 hours before weakening it. And I suspect the Mets over at the NHC are just ... shruging their shoulders in bemusement. I'd love to see an 'unoffical' blog from a few of them. just to see what their internal thoughts are. particularly in wacky circumstances like this.

-Mark

(User)

Mon Dec 05 2005 12:16 PM

AM note

well, i've got a slightly different take on how this thing is functioning.
think epsilon simply isn't a 'true' tropical hurricane. not implying that it isn't really a hurricane, because it obviously is, but to the purists out there who think a hurricane isn't a hurricane unless it functions by barotropic processes over 80F waters, and not cooler waters... this is something else.
i believe that because it's later in the year and the tropospheric heights are generally lower than would be in the summer, that this thing can function with a much shallower warm core and keep the necessary differential 'heat-engine' in a more vertically compact manner. this kind of logic wouldn't hold up with wilma, which managed to intensify in vertical shear conditions somewhat similar (although it was moving a bit quicker and in a stronger baroclinic zone). but in this case, and also with delta somewhat, the hurricane's convective tops are low enough that fast winds above say 300 mb aren't hurting it a whole lot. it'd be really interesting to know what the omega values (sort of like the lift, if i understand correctly) are like near the top of and above the boundary layer. i'd suspect that the outflow levels with this thing is a lot lower than an august or september storm in the deep tropics. it's really too bad a recon can't be managed for this thing, because it defies the rules and could probably expand the understanding scientists have about how hurricanes really function.
anyhow, jeff masters has commented on how weird the storm's ability to function in conditions that usually kill a hurricane in 24-36 hrs for several days is.. and has mentioned that some grad out there ought to be collecting data for a thesis or dissertation. i haven't heard from him, but i'd bet clark is taking notes on this one, or at least some of the oddballs we've had this season... for his phase-analysis work.
a'ite, well, here's to epsilon finally realizing that it's december, and succumbing to shear.
fyi, chaos saying this thing was like a zombie isn't an inept description.
HF 1216z05december

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Dec 05 2005 02:12 PM

Re: AM note

Quote:

the hurricane's convective tops are low enough that fast winds above say 300 mb aren't hurting it a whole lot.

This is along the lines of what I've been wondering as well, and I've been looking at the CIMSS upper level winds product the last couple days and comparing that to Epsilon and it is rarely being affected by the shear at the high levels. Last night I noticed again on sat that the shear could be seen just to the north of it at the end of the comma of circulation but not directly over it, and then again just at the southern edge of the circulation. I am not seeing 30 kts of shear affecting Epsilon, and when it was under 20 kts of shear, you could not see that effecting it either. However this morning I am seeing some shear. On the CIMSS upper level winds product, which I am not sure exactly how to read, it appears that the higher winds are over top the TC now, and that strong winds from the 351-500mb range, which maybe could affect it more, if the convection is shallow, are always just to the south of it.

But this info I didn't know:

Quote:

and the tropospheric heights are generally lower than would be in the summer

So maybe that is how it can make sense from an atmospheric point of view, and, if not, then perhaps it really does have some strong outflow that is managing somehow to deflect the shear.

I'm surprised they didn't adjust the floater last night. They've just moved it.

And you know what's funyy...after consistently going south of the forecast points for like six forecasts in a row, now that they've adjusted southward, it's heading due east again.

(Meteorologist)

Mon Dec 05 2005 02:57 PM

Re: AM note

The point about the depth of the storm & the upper-level conditions is largely the big one at play here. I don't have a map handy, but I'm willing to bet that the upper-level temperatures above Epsilon are colder-than-normal, particularly for the given SST. It can't draw a lot out from the ocean, due to the lower temperatures, but what it is getting it is making pretty efficient use of -- this is a part of the heat engine depiction of the tropical system and the so-called maximum potential intensity theory (http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html). Epsilon's left the most favorable region for maintaining itself as a hurricane and is probably nearing the limits of what it can do until it turns back SW (if the ideal conditions were maintained, which they likely won't be)...we'll see what happens from here.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Dec 05 2005 09:30 PM

Re: AM note

I give up trying to figure this one out. I understand nothing.

Almost like one of those cartoon characters that takes a corner too sharply and the head keeps going the original direction, then rubber-bands back to the body...it turned the corner and the upper level circ almost didn't come along.

Well I can't believe it...Epsilon has reorganized in a big way, after looking like one sick puppy all evening. I had thought this was it, but, no. After the convection seemed to be falling apart, after elongating, after looking like it was decoupling, it managed to rebuild and recover, all in a matter of hours.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Mon Dec 05 2005 10:47 PM

Re: AM note

*grins* you said more clearly what I was touching on. this is a 'shallow' system. therefore the typical rules do not apply. you won't need as much warmth in the waters, as you don't need as much lift. and upper level shear just flat out misses the storm. I still think a hurricane won't form like this, but once something like this forms. it's going to chug along, Ironicly, heading into warmer waters could be bad for Epsilon, as it could find itself more vulnerable to the upper level shear that's lurking.

I really was half asleep when I posted last night. I'm amazed anyone could even decipher the post!

-Mark

half asleep... i like that excuse. very familiar with how that feels.... -HF

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Tue Dec 06 2005 04:48 AM

Useful information...

Hi Folks...
I thought you might want to delve into this ...if you have not already that is..

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/dec2005/

So...I Agree with HankFrank's earlier post regarding the "purist" nature of Epsilon.

It is important to note that Epsilon developed in the belly of a negative anomaly, a teleconnected (statistically favored result) weakness in the subtropical height field, for having a fairly powerful -NAO signal across the N Atlantic. Typical positive height fields existing near or above 50N latitude in the Atlantic have a dipolar negative near the latitude of the Azores and extending W across a good bit of the Atlantic Basin. In addition, this took place earlier than normal (...for those who have good fundemental awareness of climate, they know that the -NOA exerts a bigger influence during cold season months...), which aided in causing enhanced instability over a regional scale in that region.

A negative 30-40N anomaly associated with the -NAO: What this means in lay terms is that the sfc to upper altitude delta-T and dew point differentials "mock" the typical tropical sounding that you find over an 80F, truer tropical SST and associated tropospheric sounding. Clark has hammered this point in the past, and how lower SSTs can be sufficient in these rare circumstances.. That means/meant that the thermodynmic gradients were in sufficient measure/instability for the physics to play out like it were a truer tropical sounding - it is rare for this to happen; amazing to have it happen twice in a season like this!

John

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Tue Dec 06 2005 09:36 AM

Re: Useful information...

So the 4am Advisory came out, and Epsilon is still a Hurricane, though there's a break in the eyewall on the southeast (there's been weakness off and on throughout the day and evening). could Epsilon finally be weakening? I'm not holding my breath at this moment, mostly because as the discussion pointed out, the GFDL really REALLY likes this storm. It's keeping it as a hurricane for several days. Of course The forecasters won't go with a solo model, and I can't blame them. But this storm has already happily ignored every effort to dissapate it, so we shall see.

I wonder what the GFDL is 'seeing' that's caused it. Looking at the Graphic output, the storm weakens after 72 hours, then regains strength and accelerates to the NE, then starts drifting back to the southwest at the end, still as a hurricane. (well, GFDL takes it and moves it to cold core, then rapidly back to warm core according to phase analysis).

I'm not saying that will validate out, but if it does, I can only imagine the darth vader scream of 'nooooooooo' coming from the NHC. (that or their brains have long since turned to mush from trying to understand this 'Terminator' storm. (I know there have been storms that have lasted longer, but were they constantly predicted to go away, only to defy all predictions and projections?)

looking at the GFS out put, it seemingly dissapates Epsilon, at around 72 hours, but, 24 hours another low is built near where the storm would be if GFDL validated (off to the North East) and pushes it southwest as a fairly strong system. (looking at the phase analysis, the new storm is a 'cold core system according to GFS)

NOGAPS is doing something wacky, with the storm, looks like another low picked it up and absorbs it around 84 hours.

CMC is claiming that epsilon is nearly cold core right now... interesting.

Either way, almost all the models are predicting a low pressure out near the Azores in about 5 days.

This quote from the 4AM discussion made me smile:
"I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT."

Sums things up well, no?
-Mark

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Dec 06 2005 01:35 PM

the latest on Epsilon

Sums things up? How about giving up. Last night was very interesting, watching Epsilon almost fall apart and then recover, and it must hold a clue as to what is causing the storm to maintain. Maybe there are too many things to say instead of not enough, but without recon no way to settle on the appropriate ones. What happened last night can't exactly be summed up as "continuing on steady state," even though the convection did successfully rebuild around the eye. What occured last night isn't the same as what happened on the other evenings, with convection simply waning and then building up again. Avila must have his theories about the nature of this storm, regardless.

Epsilon does look a little different this morning. The outflow is not as prominent and shear is more evident, the eye seems a little smaller, and I am wondering if, despite the apparent good organization, if the LLC is completely coupled with the convection.

(User)

Tue Dec 06 2005 02:23 PM

Re: the latest on Epsilon

starting to see resistance at the outflow levels to the northwest. fast upper winds are finally starting to bite into the circulation. track might go weird from the official as it tries to compensate. either way, expect epsilon to start really coming apart later today, spin down by thursday.
bloodstar has a point about the upper air low shown out in the eastern atlantic. a piece of the oncoming trough is forecast to break off by most models, get trapped out there for a few days. profile looks nothing like detla or epsilon, so we ought not see another storm rapidly spin up out there. basic pattern remains so the idea that another could slowly evolve is valid.
sw caribbean is showing a pattern-induced low over the weekend/early next week north of panama. should be a little ridging down there, with a steering ridge blasting fast deep layer winds through initially but slackening off. if anything is left it may be interesting.
to be honest, though.. when ep is gone we're probably done for the yea.
HF 1423z06december

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Dec 06 2005 04:10 PM

Re: the latest on Epsilon

Still a hurricane at the 10am update. I've been looking at the models - anyone else see something very interesting coming off the east coast in a few days? Cyclone Phase is picking up on it also, with GFS is pushing it to a shallow warm core with a large low pressure area in about 4-5 days. What's really interesting is to look at the GFDL - it looks suspiciously like a tropical system in that model run. CMC and GFS make it look much more like a noreaster.

Look down at Flordia around T=72h:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

GFDL on Epsilon is also showing it, and its finer detail makes it look suspiciously like a tropical system - again initiating about T=72h by Flordia:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

Here's the Cyclone Phase for GFS for that system:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05120606/71.html

In comparison, Cyclone Phase on the CMC product keeps it a deep cold core:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmcglb/fcst/archive/05120600/56.html

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Dec 06 2005 04:48 PM

Re: Useful information...

Well we do have "thunder" snowstorms...

Hootowl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Dec 06 2005 04:52 PM

Re: the latest on Epsilon

quote/ I've been looking at the models - anyone else see something very interesting coming off the east coast in a few days? /quote

I saw that a couple of days ago. Apparently our local NWS office is watching it too.
*snippets*
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
343 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

*snip*
ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF TO OUR
WEST...AND IF IT DOES...HOW STRONG DOES IT GET?

*snip*
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MID/UPPER
LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

They also mentioned it yesterday. Stating that the models continue to differ significantly.

Seems to me that the models are a little closer in agreement today than yesterday. Let's see what they have to say tomorrow.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Dec 06 2005 05:17 PM

Re: the latest on Epsilon

That's more of the typical rapidly developing extratropical system along the Gulf Stream that undergoes warm-seclusion development in the North Atlantic. The overall depiction of that is frontal in nature -- I don't think it's anything we need to worry about from a tropical standpoint and is more something for those along the East coast to watch for rain/snow.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Dec 06 2005 11:00 PM

Re: the latest on Epsilon

As I leave work tonight, looks like Epsilon is fighting its way back to the same steady state ...looking more symmetrical in the last couple sat images, although the convection is sparse, outflow can still be seen on the wv loop. And it looks like Avila had the right idea just referencing the steady state in the 4am discussion and not mentioning the overnight twists and turns of the newest soap opera, "As Epsilon Turns."

Well I'm going to do myself a favor tonight and not look at Epsilon between 7pm and 7am; save myself a lot of trouble. I'll get up in the morning and Epsilon will still be there, right?

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Dec 07 2005 02:49 AM

Re: the latest on Epsilon

I just found this humorous from the discussion.

THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...

They've run out of things to say. I still think its amazing Epsilon is a hurricane.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Dec 07 2005 03:10 AM

Epsilon's future

I'm not so sure that Epsilon can't maintain itself for at least another day or so as a hurricane. It is sort of trapped just south of a skinny, narrow ridge axis to the north and west, with the strong polar jet located well to the north of the storm. There's a persistent blocking low at the tip of Greenland, something that should capture and pivot the next trough to the NW of the storm more toward the north than east with time. The system coming off of the eastern US coast -- as mentioned in the 10p NHC discussion -- is making more headway toward the east, but even it is still some distance away, currently oriented from Bermuda SW toward the central Bahamas.

A weak upper low located just to the southwest of Epsilon is sliding to the southwest in conjunction with the storm and may be helping to ward off some of the effects of the polar jet to the north and subtropical jet to the south. The subtropical jet extends from the southern Lesser Antilles, where an upper-level low is located, to the northeast toward the Madeira Islands. It's missing Epsilon right now and may continue to do so; the aforementioned upper low just southwest of the storm is on the cyclonic shear side of the jet and probably won't be negatively impacted.

Essentially, if this trough coming off of the east coast of the US lifts and misses the storm, I don't see any reason why Epsilon wouldn't continue to head toward the west-southwest back across the Atlantic. That's not what the models are forecasting right now, but they've been wrong before. Plus, model predictability is generally pretty low when there are one or more deep extratropical cyclones in the pattern -- as we have forecast now with one east of Greenland and one moving into Alaska. Safest bet, though, is to say that it'll dissipate in 2-3 days as the trough approaches it, but be watching the water vapor imagery closely over the next 24hr to see what happens. The pattern is amplifying somewhat across the US, with a trough digging into the west, but is probably not enough to significantly amplify the pattern in the eastern Atlantic and definitively kick Epsilon outta here -- but may just be enough to rip it to shreds.

It's definitely something to watch -- the best kind of December system. I know the NHC would probably rather just be done with Epsilon and the season as a whole, but frankly I say just sit back and enjoy the show.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Dec 07 2005 04:41 AM

Re: Epsilon's future

Aw I couldn't resist taking a quick peak before lights out...CaneT I agree that's another priceless quote. Since this is my first year, I just want to know -- have the discussions always been this droll? And, Franklin: we like you, we really really do.

Clark your post was a great read. What a wonderfully deviant idea.

Well Epsilon is cruising, looking more tropical and developing some solid convection, and, on the wv loop, looking like it's ensconced in a lovely cocoon. All of which makes me wonder, if, before the really really end, there's a chance for Cat 2 before flaming out?

droll? whaddya expect? these are meteorological discussions, not works of epic shakespearean wordsmithery. well... they had the chance with ophelia, but nobody made any jokes about the storm trying to drown itself.. -HF

(off-topic material removed)

UKCloudgazer

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Dec 07 2005 07:40 AM

Re: Epsilon's future

Sorry, can't help saying this, but doesn't Ep look happy trundling around the Atlantic.

(off-topic material removed)

(Weather Guru)

Wed Dec 07 2005 07:43 AM

Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?

Some of the models are picking up on a new chunk of energy breaking off and sinking into a closed system in a couple of days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

To my great amusement the 00z GFDL now weakens Epsilon to a TD then back to hurricane force in 84 hours.

The CMC and GFS dissipates Eps but creates what would be Zeta and the NOGAPS and UKM aren't quite as aggressive.

Thoughts....bets?

(User)

Wed Dec 07 2005 08:36 AM

Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?

eh, i don't see why not. zeta, sure.
epsilon really really ought to die soon. the profile of the storm has deteriorated just a little through the day, so that long prognosticated plunge to nothingness ought to start any time. clark thinks maybe it'll just eek by, but i'm going to bet that it gets fed into that great chipper shredder in the sky also known as the jet stream and decides to call it quits.
the post-ep (or maybe ep will still be there) feature evolves in more or less the same way as its predecessors, but further east, closer to the canaries. i'm thinking that will favor a less tropical system all the way around. it does persist and show relative warming aloft in the gfs, so some of the familiar evidence is there. going to bet against this one, too, though... until the models show the feature and let it linger in the region for a few more runs.
there was a little rumbling about caribbean interest earlier. right now the models aren't showing a whole lot. just some upper ridging and a trades surge that weakens and leaves a small concentration of disturbed weather north of panama early next week.
not sold on anything being in the basin in about three days, and nothing beyond that. the season will probably end when ep bites it, though i'll back out on that statement if that east atlantic feature persists/improves in the model runs.
HF 0836z07december

well, 09Z advisory still has it as a hurricane. avila says the end is in sight. i agree, but does epsilon? -HF

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Dec 07 2005 01:02 PM

Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?

Anyone reminded of the Energizer commercials?

Epsilon just keeps going and going and going and going and ...

(Weather Master)

Wed Dec 07 2005 01:12 PM

Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?

Gotta love the NHC, when you read the 4AM discussion.

ltpat228

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Dec 07 2005 02:50 PM

Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?

I say nothing.
And what's to love about the NHC?
The 2005 hurricane season is officially behind us.
It's time for celebrations, decorating and much love between families...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Dec 07 2005 06:19 PM

Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?

Quote:

Epsilon just keeps going and going and going and going and ...

Some stats from Jeff Master's blog this am:

"Epsilon has now remained a hurricane for five days, making it the longest lived December hurricane on record. The previous record was just over four days, set by an unnamed 1887 hurricane. Epsilon has been a hurricane long enough to push the Hurricane Season of 2005 into sixth place for the most number of days a hurricane has been present--50.25 days. The record is 1893, with 72 days. If Epsilon can hang around until the 4 pm advisory on Friday, 2005 will tie 1995 for the second highest number of days with a named storm in the Atlantic, 120.5. The record is 136 named storm days in 1933."

At the risk of being pedantic...the final record that will be set by the hurricane season of 2005, will be the overall number of new records that were set.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Dec 07 2005 06:43 PM

Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I?

I thought Ep had grabbed the ring on longest Dec hurricane...thanks for the confirm.

Well, looks like EP is about to bite it,as HF put it!:) He is still trying to generate some convection on his east side (which was the weak side for a while). Interesting that the HF (that is Hurricane Force, not the "other'"HF!) winds are all on the north side (rear) of the storm...we have a had a few that were stronger on that side this yr.

I see the NW upper winds impinging on his outflow too...but, either he will fade slowly and maybe come back as he moves over warmer and warmer waters...or go out like light. We will see.

MM

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Dec 07 2005 07:46 PM

Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? In our dreams?...

What if Epsilon is going to take a path slightly to the east of the forecast track, perhaps even due south, or SSE? It appears to be possible...and this will allow a little strengthening.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Dec 07 2005 08:45 PM

Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I?

The next 12 hours will be critical to whether Epsilon bites the dust or continues onward. The effects of some shear and drier air are being felt on the western half of the storm, though an eye feature and persistent moderately deep convection are still evident on satellite imagery. The trough has approached a bit closer to the storm but appears to have halted its forward progress. Some of the models are showing it fracturing, with a cutoff low sliding toward the Canaries (what HF mentioned), but it remains to be seen if this happens or if the trough just lifts out. Nevertheless, Epsilon is stuck just south of an ever-narrowing ridge axis and continuing SW as a result. If the ridge holds, Epsilon should keep going. That's not the forecast right now, but we'll know by sunrise tomorrow whether or not Epsilon will defy the odds yet again.

And, just as an administrative note -- if you have a concern with another poster, please keep it off of the boards and utilize the private message feature available on the website. Thanks!

(Weather Guru)

Wed Dec 07 2005 09:15 PM

Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I?

Old Eppy...now I know! It is a CAT I, therefore as CAT, he has seven lives.

Well, he's used up most of them but right after my post I saw him coming back..still hanging tough.

Looks like he is going to exceed the longest lived Dec hurricane season by a wide margin...just like the rest of the season!

MM

(User)

Wed Dec 07 2005 09:47 PM

...going....

maybe the nhc is dog-tired of tracking storms and felt like giving the backup boys a whirl. hpc did the 21z discussion.... and i'm thinking they erred just a little high.
the storm's symmetry and convection has deteriorated to a point not seen since its inception in late november... it's obviously starting to come apart now (finally). if it was my job (which it never will be) to tag an intensity i would have gone with 60kt... just under the 65kt it's been getting for the last 24hr or so with a much better signature. i mean... the forecaster admitted that the t-numbers were concentrated just below 4.0... and yeah i know this goes against the logic i have that t-numbers underrate hybrid systems... but that is more of a problem when they're in formative phases, not so much when they're winding down. the semicircle of the storm northwest of the eye is peeling off, the eye structure has elongated and essentially closed. from here the surface center will start trailing the convective burst which should keep stuck on the southeastern side... probably dragging the core of the storm on an eastward-bending path as shown in the official.

later on... probably late tomorrow or early friday... the center ought to decouple and slow to a crawl as shown in the official. when things start going bad for a late season hurricane they can fold up pretty quickly.... this one ought to be done some time friday, i'm thinking. remnant low should still be apparent through about early sunday. i don't buy the gfdl baroclinic-regeneration scenario.... think we're done in about 48.

now, as for the next cut-off low shown out there early next week.. no real change there either. it's persisting in the models that like it, but there isn't a uniform picture of its existence or longevity yet. i'm not biting yet.

HF 2147z07december (PH 64)

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Dec 07 2005 09:57 PM

Re: ...going....

Yeah I went back and looked and just figured it out.

What I thought was southward movement wasn't that at all...it was the convection suddenly being shoved SSE, by a lot of shear, right off of the LLC. If you look now it is vertically tilted to the SSE a bit, and on the water vapor, no moisture left on the NW side at all, no appreciable outflow anywhere, the LLC is exposed there.

I saw the buildup of convection again, and thought it was building back up again, but if I had checked the wv, or looked more closely at the IR, I would have seen how completely trashed the structure of the storm is at this point.

* * * * * * *
The existing IR loop is kind of cool...1715Z is the last time you can see the center of the LLC in the eye of the convection, and then by the end of the loop (2245Z) the center of the LLC is completely exposed. If you track the path of the LLC during those frames, it is SW true -- 225 deg. It took five and a half hours.

(User)

Thu Dec 08 2005 06:04 AM

oddball watch

now that epsilon is on its definitive slide... we should be going into hibernation. but since it's 2005, take another look around and... yeah, it figures:
00z gfs is showing a clear warm core evolution (suggested before, but very apparent in the latest run) with the low forecast to entrench and begin backing westward under the persistent blocking high in the northeast atlantic. the low should disengage from the westerlies this weekend and be somewhere south of the azores by midweek, as the deep cyclonic 'incubator' (as tip called it recently) would be sheltering whatever sort of tropical entity might try to stew up in there.
anyhow, if theres to be a zeta, that'll probably be it. that's what the dutch call 'veeerd'.
HF 0604z08december

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Dec 08 2005 09:58 AM

Early Morning Watch

Going...Going...

Epsilon is nearing Tropical Depression status...finally.
NHC has reduced the Intensity to 35kts. As the LLC (low level center), is completely exposed...per the 4 AM EST Discussion.

Last two sentences from the 4 AM Discussion.
"SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST A NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER IT ABSORBS EPSILON... BUT THAT WOULD HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF HAPPENING EVEN WITHOUT THE REMANTS OF EPSILON."

So it's nearly over... the 2005 Season, that is.~danielw

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Thu Dec 08 2005 03:24 PM

Re: Early Morning Watch

Poof!, there goes Epsilon into the great beyond, finally.

Interesting to see HPC issue one of the forecast packages for Epsilon, yesterday. I assume that was a backup exercise, since I believe HPC has to take over if NHC/TPC is knocked out of commission for some reason.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Dec 08 2005 03:51 PM

Re: oddball watch

Yep, the cyclone phase diagrams confirm that -- the 00z more bullish than either yesterday's 18z or today's 06z run -- but it suggests the possibility of something out in the great blue yonder early week next week. The 06z run most resembles what we saw with Delta and Epsilon in early runs of the models, while the 18z and 00z runs are even closer to tropical development in nature, suggesting a true warm-core evolution. It will be interesting to see what happens, now that Epsilon has met it's fate with the trough.

swimaway19

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Dec 09 2005 02:12 AM

Re: Hurricane Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic

This might be a bit off topic, but what was the results of Dr. Gray's 2006 forecast? I thought that was supposed to happen on Dec. 6, but haven't heard anything since.

check the storm forum. it's pretty much all over there. -HF

(Meteorologist)

Fri Dec 09 2005 02:25 AM

Re: oddball watch

The 12z and 18z runs of the GFS have trended even more cold-core with the development of the system, to the point that it doesn't even resemble what we saw with Delta and Epsilon. The other models, however, are more bullish, more closely resembling the 06z GFS with the evolution of the forecast area of low pressure. It bears watching over the next 3-4 days, but it appears as though the likelihood of getting a candidate for Zeta seems to be dwindling. The environment out there, just looking at satellite, is pretty stable right now...might change, might not -- we'll see.

As for Gray's forecast -- there's a thread about it over in the Storm Forum right now, along with a prediction thread for 2006 for those so inclined.

Added Friday 12/9, 3:10pm: the latest three runs of the GFS have trended back more toward a possible subtropical/tropical development out of the low forecast to develop to the north/northeast of the remnants of Epsilon. We're about 12-24hr away from such an area of low pressure forming, according to the model, and about 3-4 days from any sort of development, so we still have some time to watch things and, of course, things are subject to change. Other models are of similar evolution to the GFS and similar to what they showed yesterday, with the Canadian (big shock) being the most bullish. The NOGAPS has the low forming much further north than the others; such an evolution would not lend itself to warm-core development.

Nevertheless, something to watch out of the corner of your eyes as we move into mid-December. The NHC will watch it, I'm sure, but will again likely be sluggish to classify anything and will almost undoubtedly require a good satellite signature before an upgrade is made.

ltpat228

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Dec 09 2005 11:12 PM

Watching Oddballs *DELETED*

Post deleted by Ed Dunham - Off topic.

(User)

Sat Dec 10 2005 04:37 AM

Re: Watching Oddballs

well, if anything is on the way it will have come and gone long before santa gets here. maybe fifty fifty. the models are showing something that sure looks like a hybrid tropical cyclone, but it won't have the staying power that epsilon did... and will be evolving over a slightly cooler-water environment as well. i think that if anything comes up it'll more likely be subtropical.
eh, probably more likely the nhc will shrug it off unless it develops a clear tropical profile. give it the ol' delta treatment.
HF 0436z10december

(Meteorologist)

Sun Dec 11 2005 02:50 AM

Re: Watching Oddballs

Getting a typical start to a hybrid evolution out along 30W -- deep ridging over Western Europe is causing the midlatitude trough out there to fracture, leaving behind a cut-off upper-low (with a 999mb surface reflection) in its wake. Models are still suggesting that something could undergo tropical transition out there and end up classified, though as my boss noted to me from down under yesterday -- they've got the tendency to kill off anything that pops up warm-core this late in the year as they don't handle these processes all that well once a storm becomes tropical. That said, they do handle the basics of getting it there pretty well, so I'd say we've got a fair shot at seeing something out there in a few days.

Next question becomes one of what name would it take. The TAFB Atlantic discussions are tracking it as the remnant low of Epsilon. I'm not so sure on that one, though I will admit to not having tracked it quite as much as they have. That said, the NHC may have a naming dilemma on their hands if something does get going out there -- Epsilon or Zeta? Nevertheless, it'd be one for the record books and surely would bring about arguments over semantics and the like if it happened.

Whatever happens, models are forecasting it to move slowly toward the west over the next 5 days. It's so far out there, though, that it'll only be a threat to interests in the Eastern Atlantic, likely after it gets captured by another midlatitude feature later on down the line.

We'll watch this one -- I'm going to put about 60/40 odds favoring it developing right now, assuming the NHC goes forth and classifies it (noting the caveats outlined in previous posts), and will be looking to see if future discussions track this feature as Epsilon as well. If they do, then we likely will not see any addition to the numbers for this season out of this one; if not, then it's more likely anything that develops out there will become Zeta as opposed to a reincarnation of Epsilon.

(User)

Sun Dec 11 2005 09:22 PM

Re: Watching Oddballs

well... right now it's a big non-tropical gale center. looks to have partially occluded, while sitting about 500 mi south of the azores. the convection on the inner spiral is modest, but nothing resembling an isolated core yet. i'd say it's two days away from transition, minimum. but it looks to have 3-4 days, so hybrid development is still within the realm of possibility.
HF 2122z11december

danielw

(Moderator)

Mon Dec 12 2005 01:11 AM

Re: Watching Oddballs

Either you guys got an over the shoulder look at the discussions that came out hours later...or NHC is reading the thread here. Here's an excerpt from the 7 PM EST Discussion.

IN THE NE ATLC...
POWERFUL 990 MB LOW IS NEAR 32N29W WITH WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE LOW SW TO 19N41W.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N20W TO 20N21W DISSIPATING JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 22.5N-30N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 22W.
THIS LOW IS BEING WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH TIME.
FOR NOW THERE ISN'T MUCH CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IT IS TOO ENTANGLED WITH FRONTS TO EVEN CONSIDER SUBTROPICAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.
FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH... A CONSENSUS OF COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST THIS
SYSTEM TO BE THE MOST SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL ON THE 13TH. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING N OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BE CUTOFF FOR A FEW DAYS BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO HAVE AS MUCH TIME AS EPSILON DID TO FORM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/112343.shtml?

Here is a link to the OPC forecast page for the N Atlantic. Presently indicating the above mentioned Low moving clockwise around a 1044mb High. The High is progged as stationary off the SW Coast of the U.K.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/

(Meteorologist)

Mon Dec 12 2005 03:11 AM

Re: Watching Oddballs

Models are showing a pretty short lifespan for this feature, but I think that's largely due to how they handle the medium-term structural evolution of the system. Once the system goes warm-core (tropical/subtropical) in the model, they are quickly decaying the system. Normally, that'd be what you expect given the cool SSTs. But, models already handle tropical cyclone intensity pretty poorly as it is, especially for those well out at sea; I would not expect them to accurately capture tropical development in the North Atlantic beyond showing a cut-off low acquiring tropical characteristics to begin with. Experience this season bears that out, with Vince, Delta, and Epsilon all good cases toward that hypothesis, especially the latter of the three. I'd expect this system to be with us in 5 days, regardless of the models losing it.

As the NHC/TAFB discussion mentions, the system is a bit too entangled in fronts right now to be threatening for immediate tropical/subtropical development. It is on its way, however. It has subtropical characteristics in the wind field -- strong winds very near the center of circulation, but a rather flat wind profile out from the center of the system, i.e. the winds are still rather substantial as you move away from the inner "core" of the system. Max winds are likely 50-60kt right now, in line with a 990mb pressure, yet still 30-35kt well away from the center particularly to the NE owing to the pressure gradient between it and the 1044mb high Danny mentioned in the previous post. (For reference, see http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBds122.png. Likely disregard this link after Monday mid-afternoon.)

METEOSAT-8 satellite image: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF. Satellite representation continues to improve, though we're going to need to see a bit more of a break from the front to the north (though it certainly has been getting there) to get a shot at a classified system. Given the strength of that ridge near/just west of the British Isles, I think that'll come with time. The trailing bands to the south/southeast -- proxies for frontal structures -- will need to tighten up and weaken as well.

We'll know within the next two days if we're going to get another system out there this season. I still think we have a better shot than not at getting something, probably 65/35 now. It is certainly a good case for anyone interested in how these things can get going -- very well predicted by the models, near-classic evolution on infrared/WV satellite imagery, tightening of the circulation and wind field (as evidenced by QuikSCAT), ultimately leading to what may be a subtropical/tropical cyclone. I think we'll see an invest put out for this one tomorrow if for no other reason than to get the microwave imagery from the NRL centered over the storm.

After this...I figure this will last for at least another 7 days in the North Atlantic. Nothing is threatening or should threaten in the tropical Atlantic in that time frame (or for the rest of the season, for that matter). Any development beyond that would be much like the last two storms and would likely take another 5 days beyond the end game for this system to even get going. That gets us to Christmas. At the absolute most, we will not get past Eta this season. As noted above, I think we've got about a 65% shot at Zeta. I think we have a <5% shot at Eta (and no shot if the current system does not get classified) and 0% shot at going further into the Greek alphabet. The absolute end of the 2005 hurricane season is coming...really, it is!

(Let's not even think of the possibility of more of these hybrids in January-April to kick off the 2006 season early, either...)

(Weather Guru)

Mon Dec 12 2005 06:17 AM

Re: Watching Oddballs

Quote:

The absolute end of the 2005 hurricane season is coming...really, it is!

It has to be, we're almost out of year!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Dec 12 2005 04:48 PM

Re: Watching Oddballs

Clark, HF, Danny thank you so much for the informative posts and the links. I hadn't found any other sat images to look at except the 4x daily METEOSAT-8 color-enhanced IR (wish they would have moved the floater a bit east of where it was, but instead they took if off the ATL ocean and centered it over FL). I did not know about the OPC web site; was able to go between their very useful maps and the sat image this morning, and between that and your posts and this morning's TWD, I understand what I am seeing, although it is hard for me to figure out the different types of clouds on the too-colorful IR image. With each of these storms I am understanding more about their formation. I'm finding this just as interesting as looking at the purely tropical systems I watched all season.

Quote:

...or NHC is reading the thread here

I imagine that when storms are brewing the NHC forecasters are crazy busy just to get everything done to get the forecast products out, but it would be nice to think that in the down time, between, some of them might wander over here now and then, to see what we're seeing and saying (and, this season, to see if we enjoyed the offbeat comments in the discussions), or what puzzles us. We are the nicest hurricane board on the web

, and we have you guys posting the great met information.

margie, really... we've got nothing on those guys. -HF

That is not what I meant.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Dec 12 2005 11:27 PM

Re: Here we go?

Convection over or near center earlier today, now an eye feature (looks like Epsilon at one stage)...could use more convection, but, maybe that is on the way?

So like, when does it get classified?

MM
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

(Meteorologist)

Mon Dec 12 2005 11:55 PM

Re: Here we go?

No invest or T-numbers on this one yet, though I wouldn't be surprised to see them started later tonight or tomorrow morning. Outer convection is on the fritz as the system starts to consolidate, particularly to the north and to the west; the outer band to the east is starting to contract a little bit as well. An inner convective band earlier today has started to try to consolidate into a small inner core, with perhaps a banding eye feature trying to become evident (though I'm not sold on that yet). I think the system has completely separated from the trough that spawned it as that feature has left off toward the north over top of the ridge near the British Isles. While some outer bands/frontal structures may still be present to the east, those are becoming more diffuse with time and don't particularly have any sharp gradients (temperature, wind shifts, etc) associated with them right now.

The phase space analyses suggest it is on the cusp of subtropical/tropical development right now, though the models are still trending shorter on the system's life span. I'm a bit more bearish on the system lasting through the forecast period than I was yesterday as the trough leaving the east coast looks like it may capture this one, though the same could have been said for Epsilon once upon a time as well. I think as the inner-core starts to organize a bit better, you'll see subtropical or tropical cyclone advisories being issued on this one; that's about the only difference between this storm and the early stages of Epsilon and Delta as named systems. Time may be of the essence, though -- if nothing is going by early Wednesday, it may run out of time. It's trending the right way, though.

Just in is the 0000UTC NHC/TAFB Tropical Discussion:

Quote:

THE LOW IS SEPARATING FROM ITS FRONTS AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTER... THOUGH IT REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS ALSO BECOMING MORE SUBTROPICALISH WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION FORMS NEAR THE CENTER.

They say it bears watching, and as I've been harping on for the past 3 days or so, I certainly agree. Same odds as yesterday at getting something (i.e. Zeta) out of this one, albeit with a shorter time frame. Satellite appearance will be key for this one, as it has moved into that netherworld where the cyclone phase diagrams/model representations aren't going to add much value to the initial analysis.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Dec 13 2005 02:54 PM

Re: Here we go?

Looks like less convection this morning than yesterday (at least it has moved far enough west that it can be viewed on GOES), and the windfield never wrapped all the way around on the south...no Zeta this time 'round.

You know...the NHC TPC web page looks like Des Moines Iowa after 5pm; the sidewalks are rolled up. Ever since July I've been going there, practically on a daily basis (the web page, not Des Moines), and on most days seeing a box for a numbered or named storm...but occasionally just a sentence saying that there are currently no storms. For the first time today I looked and saw this message (although it may have been up for several days): "The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30."

It made me consider that in this unusually busy season, it is easier to go back and count the days where there were no ATL storms active:

June 1-7 and 13-27, July 1-2 and 30-31, Aug 1 and 19-21, Sep 26-29, Oct 7, 12-14, and 26, Nov 1-13 and 22. Only 53 days out of the six-month season, less than 2 months of inactivity, and there were an additional 8 days in Dec with named storms.

(User)

Tue Dec 13 2005 04:05 PM

Re: Here we go?

thing is totally occluded now. the nhc discussions are mentioning a 'surface trough' out in the east atlantic, which i suppose is reference to the large, closed vortex apparent in the visibles. not a whole lot of convection with it, though... and if it were going to make a real stab at developing it would be farther along.
so anyway, gale center it is... hybrid tropical cyclone it isn't. the chance may remain for it to do something (toss a solid convective core in the middle, and it'd be a whole different story), but it isn't very big anymore. never really got far enough to the south, i guess.
models are showing another cutoff or two later in the period, but as it's december the chances of development continue to shrink. may be worth an odd glance to see if the models keep seeing them, but the season may well have ended with epsilon's demise on december 8th.
HF 1605z13december

(Meteorologist)

Tue Dec 13 2005 04:34 PM

Re: Here we go?

Well, it got about 85% of the way there, but I don't think it has quite enough time to go any further toward development. It's a separate entity now, spiraling westward across the northern Atlantic, but the trough currently extending NE away from Bermuda is approaching and should capture this feature. Despite the lack of development into a named system, it still is a very nice case that can be used to understand how these things get going -- strengthen that southern end of the wind field a bit and add some persistent convection right near the center of the system and you have something.

Agree with HF; we're probably done for the season. This thing's got maybe 12hr to develop into something and, given the approaching trough & demise of the low, it's going to take a lot just to get a quick upgrade. Seems like forever ago that the season started, way back with Arlene, but here we are now at the end of the game...and it's about time to package this season away for good.

(User)

Fri Dec 16 2005 01:08 AM

Re: Here we go?

we've got another hybrid forecast for the eastern atlantic region this weekend/early next week. looks a little frisky, but maybe not as impressive as the last, as far as model appearances go so far. still holding out that epsilon was the last one. of course, the pattern that generated delta and epsilon is persisting in a reduced form, and might still toss us an out-of-season storm. enjoy the christmas season, everybody,
HF 0108z16december

(Weather Master)

Fri Dec 16 2005 12:45 PM

Re: Here we go?

HankFrank

Glad to hear you missed the ice; sounded like an awful storm.

I want to thank you and all the moderators, I learned a lot (unfortunately) this year. Let's hope for only fish spinners next year.

(Meteorologist)

Mon Dec 19 2005 10:52 PM

Couple of random notes...

Couple of random notes...

1) The NHC has released a few of the post-season analyses on this season's storms. There's no real rhyme or reason to them coming out other than when the forecasters tasked with writing them get the chance to do so. The full list is available by clicking here; so far, they have Arlene, Dennis, Gert, Lee, and Epsilon. No major changes to the tracks, though an extra advisory at TS status was added for both Lee and Epsilon (with the latter's accumulated energy actually decreased somewhat).

2) There appears to have been a transient non-tropical hurricane-type system south of Greece in the Mediterranean Sea late last week around the 15h. It was decidedly cold-core (see the NOGAPS cyclone phase analysis -- caution, link will expire soon) but had an eye-like feature on satellite imagery, akin to polar lows sometimes seen at higher latitudes. More interesting than anything, I guess. If a publicly-available satellite image becomes available, I'll pass it along.

Happy Holidays, everyone!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Dec 20 2005 11:16 PM

Re: Couple of random notes...

Clark, Katrina's report is out.

Can you believe it?

!

Written by Knabb, Rhome, & Brown.

Gotta go read it right now!

Cycloneye11

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Dec 20 2005 11:57 PM

Re: Couple of random notes...

Here is the Katrina report which is very long 42 pages.Among the important things there another record for the 2005 season was broken as Katrina had 920 mbs with 110 kts.But there are more things in the report that all may want to look at such as the downgrade to cat 3 at landfall.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL122005_Katrina.pdf

(Meteorologist)

Wed Dec 21 2005 02:48 AM

Re: Couple of random notes...

Saw it earlier and was going to make a post about it, but it went up and down on the NHC's site all day so I held off. It's a very interesting read and goes into quite a bit of depth on a lot of intensity issues.

There will be arguments all up and down the board for some period of time on the actual intensity at landfall, primarily the intensity of the winds in New Orleans, but most of that will be nitpicking. I have heard a lot of talk that it could've been a lot worse for New Orleans, which I tend to doubt. Yes, they were on the weaker side of a weakening category 3 hurricane, so the wind damage was not nearly as bad as they could have seen. However, the surge was that akin to a category 4 hurricane -- initially driven at category 3 with a lot of category 5 swell built in, even going across Lake Ponchartrain. The whole area east of town essentially flooded from the Gulf inward to the city's periphery. If the storm had gone further west -- i.e. directly over the city -- as a category 4 or even 5 storm, I would make the argument that New Orleans itself would have been spared the flooding damage as most of it would have piled up in St. Charles & St. John the Baptist Parishes, more rural areas that St. Bernard, Orleans, and Jefferson Parishes. Damage still would have rivaled or likely surpassed Andrew, but I feel the loss of life would've been reduced, and most of it would have been covered by insurance (unlike the flooding damage, which most are finding out the hard way that will not be covered without specialized flood insurance).

Needless to say, this was the 'big one' for New Orleans and the northern Gulf Coast, a fact highlighted well by the preliminary report, and I hope that we never end up testing that theory above in real life. Pick your poison, essentially.

(User)

Thu Dec 22 2005 03:56 PM

katrina report

they'd mentioned cutting a category off a while back, so not unexpected. still bizarre to have a hurricane landfalling around 920mb rated cat 3. but that's the saffir-simpson scale for ya--wind is what the scale is set by.
that 80 billion damage figure isn't very inclusive. if you tossed in the aid and cleanup costs, and factored in economic losses.... the hurricane's impact was surely significantly higher.
i'm a little sketchy on the direct/indirect fatalities thing. i'm sure that quite a good bit of the deaths in pre-WW2 era hurricanes include numerous cases of what the nhc guys would tag as indirect.
the conventions in post-analysis are easy to critique, but they're a-ok as long as things are consistent through time.
HF 1556z22december