MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jan 01 2007 04:48 AM |
Hurricane Season Begins In Five Weeks
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In five weeks the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.
Now is a great time to check your emergency supply lists. Throw out old/ expired items. And prepare for 72 hours without power water and telephone services.
Once you've checked everything you can sit back and try to relax with everyone here.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1st-November 30th, 2007. And we will be around to track it. Improvements to the site will come this year as the season nears its peak.
Thanks everyone for the help in 2006!
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL-Monteray (Nice Tracking Maps, Invest, and Satellite Images)
Alternate NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Buoy Data, QuikScat oceanic wind data, Dvorak Estimates , TAFB/TPC Analysis
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, MM5; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
NCEP models NAM, GFS, WW3, NGM
Other commentary from Independentwx, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update, Accuweather/Joe Bastardi & etc. Tropical Outlook Videos on Yahoo, Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, WeatherXP (Rich B.), Hurricane City, mpittweather, WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), NWHHC, Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , StormPulse (Matthew Wensing),
Even more on the links page.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Feb 19 2007 03:33 AM |
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early considerations
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you folks that have been watching the evolution of the current warm ENSO event have probably noticed how it peaked out early in the winter and how much the coverage of the positive sst anomalies in the pacific has dwindled. just lately a cool patch has started east of the dateline and is working its way westward. not a definite signal, but often enough when these things show up we'll end up in a la nina before the year is out. the atlantic is quite warm still, moreso to the east... but the gulf stream is also looking very charged. do not be surprised if the pacific cools off this year and the atlantic stays in overdrive.
HF 0232z19february
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Feb 21 2007 02:35 PM |
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The 2006/07 El Niño has ended !
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The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main ENSO indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Niño thresholds for about a month now. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the SOI has been neutral for three of the past four months and central-western Pacific cloudiness is close to average. Computer models indicate further cooling in the Pacific, with a La Niña not out of the question (see third paragraph).
What does this mean for Australia? Firstly, while the end of the El Niño would normally be associated with a return to more normal rainfall patterns, it should not be seen as a precursor to drought-breaking rains. This particularly applies to water supplies in parts of eastern and southern Australia, which in some instances require several years of healthy rainfalls to recover to a satisfactory level. Nonetheless, we can be cautiously optimistic that there will be a general easing of dry conditions in drought-affected areas over the next one to two seasons.
A La Niña in 2007?
The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main ENSO indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Niño thresholds for about a month now. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the SOI has been neutral for three of the past four months and central-western Pacific cloudiness is close to average. Computer models indicate further cooling in the Pacific, with a La Niña not out of the question (see third paragraph). and (c) a large pool of cold sub-surface water has developed in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña events are generally associated with wetter than normal conditions across much of the eastern half of the country from about autumn.
ENSO UPDATE
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Feb 21 2007 02:38 PM |
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Re: The 2006/07 El Niño has ended !
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Really not a surprise...Neutral appears to be in place for the first half of the season followed by a possible La Nina.
PS! Forgot to login in my first post Sorry about that.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Feb 21 2007 11:47 PM |
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Re: early considerations
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so what exactly does that mean for us down here in east central florida. a very active season or just rainy?
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Feb 22 2007 04:05 AM |
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Re: early considerations
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It indicates a quite active season in the makings in 2007.Steering currents will be key which determine which areas see activity this season.Overall everything is indicateing an active season number wise so we'll have to see how all this shapes up in the next 3-4 months.
| saluki |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Feb 22 2007 06:10 PM |
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Re: early considerations
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Upper-level winds also will have something to do with what happens. Last year, high wind shear and strong upper-level lows helped keep things from popping. No telling yet if those will be factors this year.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Feb 22 2007 09:03 PM |
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Re: early considerations
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Well... El nino causes more shear and La Nina causes less shear.. so it could be quiet interesting about the strength of these storms in a few months
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Feb 23 2007 01:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007
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A reminder to the old and the many new users... please make sure to place your post in the proper forum this season. A review of the site rules may be a good idea for all of us before we get into the season. June 1 will be here before we know it and it is my hope we do not have to spend this season moving posts placed in the incorrect Forum and so forth...
Thanks All!
Coop RULES
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Feb 28 2007 09:27 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007
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I'm sure that most everyone has caught the very latest NOAA/CPC ENSO forecast,
but in case you've just missed it - From 2/28 -
"LA NIÑA MAY SOON ARRIVE"
Based on CPC, during the heart of the season we may be thick in a Nina phase.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Mar 03 2007 02:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007
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The local papers are all writing about the demise of El Nino. It will be interesting to hear what the new predictions for 2007 are.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Mar 03 2007 09:16 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007
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The last Neutral season was 2005, and the last La Nina season was 2004, so it could be an interesting year.
Now the big factor is where is the Bermuda high going to set up?
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Mar 12 2007 09:35 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007
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Hopefully out in Africa. After 2005. I don't want to see a depression 1000 miles near me.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Mar 16 2007 01:33 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007
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Good evening,
IRI'S update concludes that this la Nina will be a weak one at best with a 60% of Neutral conditions developing by mid-2007.
Here's a part of there's discussion.
While many of the features in the tropical Pacific air-sea system are consistent with initiation of La Niña conditions -- shallow thermocline in the east, emergence of cold SST anomalies, and easterly wind anomalies -- considerable uncertainty remains over whether such conditions will lead to the growth of a La Niña event. For one thing, the ITCZ is closest to the equator at this time of the year, leading to weaker winds, and thus a weaker connection between subsurface and surface conditions. Still, the trend is currently toward cooling, and the cold/shallow subsurface anomalies necessary for further development of La Niña conditions exist. Thus there is a finite possibility that the system may reach La Niña conditions within the next several months. Probabilities initially favor ENSO-neutral conditions, but by mid-2007 the forecast suggests that weak La Niña conditions are more likely.
A re-emergence of El Niño conditions is very unlikely likely, with probabilities not exceeding 10% throughout the forecast period. <strong>There is an approximately 60% likelihood for ENSO-neutral conditions to start, with a 35% probability for La Niña conditions. By mid-2007, the probabilities for La Niña grow to 50%</strong>
More Here
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Mar 21 2007 04:00 AM |
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too early, bud
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gfs has a funny cut-off type low developing east of the bahamas early next week. it doesn't have a tropical profile, but within a large upper low could get one of those weird hybrid looks to it, should recent runs prove accurate. probably will be under such upper westerlies that it can't even do that. just the same, can't get much closer to a system in march (sans the 1908 march hurricane).
HF 0500z21march
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Mar 21 2007 04:32 AM |
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Re: too early, bud
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18Z GFS seems to keep insisting on development in about a week!Something to watch?Maybe.
00Z continues with development but in a weaker state.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Mar 21 2007 09:44 PM |
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Re: too early, bud
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12Z models show something trying to form, but racing off to the NE rapidly. If it's going to have a prayer, it'll have to get cut off and simmer, which won't happen. something to peek at though...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Mar 22 2007 03:36 AM |
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Re: too early, bud
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intersting GFS runs...and CMC runs...something to watch ... nothing to be worried about.... just something to watch.... one things for sure.. the waters off of Florida...both sides.. are warming... thanks to the high pressure thats been sticking and going to stick around.... looks like it might be an intersting season... not to far off
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Mar 22 2007 12:21 PM |
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Re: too early, bud
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according to the 06 GFS run I saw, it's not there! GFS is doing the cha cha cha once again, it will probably return in the next run most likely, we'll have to see what happens in the future.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Mar 26 2007 07:58 AM |
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Hope to back this year!
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Hey guys! Hopefully now I can actually be around this year. Obviously the rest of the '05 season was a blur and then last hurricane season I was knee deep for most of it re-building the house and THANKFULLY it was quiet!! Here's a little update as to how things are going:
Well after a miserable 18 months, things are finally looking up. Most of the work to my house is done (we moved back in on June 22, 2006) and have spent a lot of time gardening, replacing things outside for the kids, re-soding the lawn and things of that nature since then. We're acutally back into a livable routine and have probably 60% of the people back on our street. Still the damage is done.......we just finally got Burger King and Popeye's and McDonald's has been open the longest about 5 months now I guess. Still, other than that and local mom and pop restaurants that's the bulk of the business that has returned. Home Depot came back of course, and is making about $1 million a day! No Wal-Mart, no Sears, no K-Mart, nothing like that.....they've all deserted us. It make things a little harder, but mostly depressing. Now on to the good news. I'd say roughly 22,000-25,000 of the 67,000 residents here in St. Bernard are back for good. Another 5,000-10,000 are probably working on their homes and living eslewhere for now. I think we will be back to around 50% of the pre-Katrina population by the two year mark. It would be even faster if the state could get the money to the people. The school enrollment is amazing.
Pre-Katrina: 8,800
Re-opened AMAZINGLY in November 2005 only 11 weeks after Katrina: 334
December 2005: 640
February 2006: 1700
May 2006: 2350
August 2006: 3000+
There are now some 3,800 students back and they fully expect 4,500 to 5,000 by the opening of the 2007-08 school year in August. The super of the schools, a lady that was there when I was in school won the JFK Profiles in Courage Award for basically telling FEMA to go fly a kite and getting a school open 11 weeks after it was under 11 feet of water from Katrina. My daughter goes to elementary school in a high school campus with 68 classrooms that weren't enough. They added 9 trailers with 8 classrooms each and they have 2,100 kids there. It's really heart-warming the school situation.
Anyway, enough of my rambling about stuff most of you all don't care about anyway! Maybe if anyone gives a hoot I will post the video of the re-building of my home. It's pretty cool, and goes from what it looked like when we pulled up for the first time to the re-building stage, to what it looks like now. I just need to figure out how to compress it!!
Hope to see you guys a lot on here this season talking about how no one is in DANGER AT ALL!!!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Mar 26 2007 04:42 PM |
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Re: Hope to back this year!
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Hey Shawn, glad to see you back here. I was in your area not too long ago and have to echo your sentiments. It was heartwarming to see everyone trying to come back and I hope that if there is a next time that things will turn out differently. Contrast that to the northeast side of New Orleans itself, just southwest of the I-10/I-510 interchange, which looks like an absolute ghost town. That was the most depressing of all.
If La Nina develops into the upcoming season, there might be a slight proclivity for storms to affect the southeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines moreso than the Gulf, but that's no slam dunk. We're in a pattern in the extreme eastern Atlantic that favors less Cape Verde storms (due to the dust), keeping more systems a threat closer to the populated areas of the basin. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, but for the sake of everyone along the coastline, Gulf and Atlantic, I hope things stay out to sea.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Mar 27 2007 05:01 AM |
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Re: too early, bud
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I'll take the trof that keeps interacting with the ull near PR for $200, HF!
For the most part, I think I've definitely seen a few "attempters" out there, already. Nothing close, but some subtle features suggesting to me that we may see an early first-identified TD this season. If that bugger of a ull would slacken up just a bit - er, like 40 knots of shear worth - to allow the surface trof draping across central-eastern Carib to fester a bit more, and just gently stoke it a few more days, this would be a good example of what I am talking about.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Mar 27 2007 05:22 AM |
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Re: Hope to back this year!
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Hey NLU, it's great to read about the successes! You have all met a challenge most of the developed world will probably never comprehend, yet stand courageous and steadfast in your resolve. Truly, folks such as yourself are models of hope and faith for all.
Would love to see the home rebuilding vid. I'm sure many of us would!
Best,
Ciel
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Mar 27 2007 01:51 PM |
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Re: Hope to back this year!
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Quote:
Hey Shawn, glad to see you back here. I was in your area not too long ago and have to echo your sentiments. It was heartwarming to see everyone trying to come back and I hope that if there is a next time that things will turn out differently. Contrast that to the northeast side of New Orleans itself, just southwest of the I-10/I-510 interchange, which looks like an absolute ghost town. That was the most depressing of all.
If La Nina develops into the upcoming season, there might be a slight proclivity for storms to affect the southeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines moreso than the Gulf, but that's no slam dunk. We're in a pattern in the extreme eastern Atlantic that favors less Cape Verde storms (due to the dust), keeping more systems a threat closer to the populated areas of the basin. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, but for the sake of everyone along the coastline, Gulf and Atlantic, I hope things stay out to sea.
What's up bud!!! Did you go pay Jess and Travis a visit? Yeah the area around there (New Orleans East) and the Lower 9th Ward for sure are basically empty. Most of the people can't afford to re-build although a few have come back. At least here it seems as though people want to come back. How have you been?
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Mar 27 2007 01:53 PM |
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Re: Hope to back this year!
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Quote:
Hey NLU, it's great to read about the successes! You have all met a challenge most of the developed world will probably never comprehend, yet stand courageous and steadfast in your resolve. Truly, folks such as yourself are models of hope and faith for all.
Would love to see the home rebuilding vid. I'm sure many of us would!
Best,
Ciel
I really appreciate that! It's been rough, I can't lie about that. It's been a lot of tears and a lot of days where you just want to give up. I'm still hanging on though for now!!!
Let's just have another season with no hurricanes in the Gulf! That would be nice.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Mar 27 2007 02:29 PM |
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Admin Notes
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This thread has drifted a bit off-topic in the past few days, so just a gentle reminder to emphasize the tropics on the Main Page article. Personal experiences and anecdotes are really better suited to the Hurricane History forum, but I realize that as the Winter months drift by and Spring settles in, everyone begins to anticipate the new season. Welcome back to all - the busy season on the site is getting close.
For those who are registering as new Users:
In order to combat a recent rash of automated 'spam' registrations, it is important for individuals who are registering as a New User to place an entry in the field "Total # of Years Tracking Storms", even if the entry is '0'. Without an entry in this field, your application for registration will probably be rejected.
Current registered Users do not need to place an entry in this field if the field is currently blank.
ED
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Mar 27 2007 05:32 PM |
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NOAA indicates Neutral conditions for now but La Nina is likely to take over in the next 3 months
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An active season across the atlantic basin continues to look quite likely...Lets hope the steerning pattern is in our favor.
Noaa update Here
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Mar 27 2007 09:39 PM |
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Re: NOAA indicates Neutral conditions for now but La Nina is likely to take over in the next 3 month
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I know that's an "official" powerpoint presentation, but I wish there was a layman's explanatiotoo. *LOL*
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Apr 02 2007 04:54 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007
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Hello Folks,
It looks like there are componants in place this spring that could lead us to and active Hurricane season.
I was looking at some bouy data:
Just 20 NM offshore the Ocean temp is 77.5 degrees
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
At 120 NM offshore the Ocean temp is 74.8 degrees.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010
In the Central Carib. the water is 81.1 degrees.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058
Is this "Normal" for this time of year?
Or are the waters off Florida warmer than usual for this time of year?
With the outlook of less shear winds, and warmer water. We really could have a busy season.
Any thoughts?
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Apr 02 2007 10:07 PM |
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Re: Current Buoy SSTs
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The Reynolds SST Anomaly (on March 31st) indicates that the waters off east Florida are just a tad below normal, i.e., normal at the distant buoy and just slightly below normal at the nearshore buoy. In the central Caribbean Sea the SSTs are about a degree or so above normal for this time of year.
Reynolds Atlantic SST Anomaly
The long range ENSO forecast doesn't show any change in the Caribbean SSTs for the next six months, but then again, it also doesn't show the current pocket of high anomalies in the north central Gulf either.
Six Month SST Forecast
Cheers,
ED
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Apr 02 2007 10:58 PM |
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Re: Current Buoy SSTs
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Thanks for the input Ed.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Apr 03 2007 02:27 AM |
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SSTs-42058
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Checking the 3/31/2007 peak daytime observations at buoy 42058 against last year.
2007-air temp 27.5C/ sea temp 27.4
2006-air temp 26.8C/ sea temp 26.8
Air temp is 0.7C above last year, and sea temp is 0.6C above last year.
This is a relatively new buoy with no data for this date in 2005.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Apr 03 2007 03:22 PM |
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Re: SSTs-42058
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I don't think there is any doubt that the El Nino is gone and an all out La Nina will be in place by May.
Pretty easy to see the reduction in the SST in the equatorial pacific here.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure1.gif
Not looking like we are going to get lucky this season like we did in 2006.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Apr 09 2007 07:08 PM |
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Re: SSTs-42058
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anyone seen the loop current in the GOM?
can't seem to find it... lol
GOM Temps
wider shot... very nice gulf stream shapping up off the east coast. bet the fishing might start kicking in? Wide Shot ATL
another neat new image
Color Image
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danielw
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| Thu Apr 12 2007 09:21 AM |
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Re: SSTs-42058
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Looks like the Loop Current is close to pinching off a warm eddy in the next few weeks.
All of the links in Storm Hunters posts show the Loop Current. Some better than others.
The best example would be the one with sea height contours. However, it appears to be an older map image.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Apr 20 2007 07:11 PM |
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Re: SSTs-42058
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hmm... just buzzing through sats today and came across this...
EPAC also noted that what looks like an small upper low just east of florida coast heading south... Bringing some showers to the east coast of Florida. Almost a month away and i see NC State team is calling for 8-9 Hurricanes for the season.... Need to read up on their study.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Apr 21 2007 07:07 AM |
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SSTs- 2007 vs 2005
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Composite SST of GOM (Gulf of Mexico) on 11 APR 07.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2007-04/g12%2E070411%2Ecomp%2Esstcl%2Egif
Composite SST of GOM on 11 APR 05
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2005-04/g12%2E050411%2Ecomp%2Esstcl%2Egif
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Apr 23 2007 06:56 PM |
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Re: SSTs- 2007 vs 2005
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Quote:Quote:
Composite SST of GOM (Gulf of Mexico) on 11 APR 07.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2007-04/g12%2E070411%2Ecomp%2Esstcl%2Egif
Composite SST of GOM on 11 APR 05
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2005-04/g12%2E050411%2Ecomp%2Esstcl%2Egif
much warmer than.
Eh?
2007 looks to be a good 1 - 2 degrees warmer overall.
In particular, look at the Southern, Central, Northern and Western Gulf. About the only place that seems to be cooler is the eastern region near Tampa and the big bend area.
I'm not too worried about the water temps quite yet, Let's see what they're looking like at the end of May. If they're still running above average... then there might be a small problem.
(is this line of conversation better served in another forum? if so, obviously feel free to move it)
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Apr 24 2007 02:36 AM |
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response
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maybe the oncoming la nina is finally starting to assert itself in terms of seasonal pattern evolution. earlier this spring and late winter the analog patterns on the ncep 6-10/8-14 day outlooks were from mostly el nino regimes, with occasional others interspersed. the forecast for today shows a solid string analogs from la nina years. maybe the start of a trend we'll see repeat into the season.
la nina years usually have a slow june-july portion and then suddenly switch all the way on some time in august. more often than not it happens around the third week. nothing to say this one won't fit the bill, though. we'll probably see the big numbers this year... that seems fairly certain at this point. the big question will be whether the longwave pattern has the escape hatch in the western atlantic open.
HF 0234z24april
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Tue Apr 24 2007 05:50 AM |
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Re: response
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HF, looking at temp. anomolies so far (posted previously), the Atlantic is running about avarage, so we need to take note of those temps closer to home which are running on the warm to boiling side. Waves may sneak in to the Bahamas/Carribean/Gulf and grow quickly if this trend continues (Like Katrina ,Rita,and WIlma). This has been a more discouraging piece of info to me (As I hope for an active '07 season tracking wise with ZERO landfalls).
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Apr 26 2007 07:36 PM |
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Re: SSTs- 2007 vs 2005
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Eh. I think it's a little early to tell just yet. We had a lot of cold air pushing very far south the past few months, with plenty of it fanning out over the GOM
Here are the more recent ssts in the area mid-late april 2007
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/...Esst%2Ecl%2Egif
vs mid-late april 2006
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/...Esst%2Ecl%2Egif