MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue May 01 2007 10:15 PM |
The 2007 Season
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One month to go until the start of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricae Season. All the usual indicators for the season seem to point toward a more active year than last year, but most of us hope for an even quieter one. With a forecasted mild La Nina being more indicative for more storms, there is the likelihood that the average ocean temperature will go down, so it may even out.
I'd expect another average to slighty above average year this year.
Colorado State's predictions (Last updated in April) were for 17 named storms, 9 Hurricanes, and 4 Major Hurricanes, which interestingly enough was the same as last year at this time. I tend to think that number is a bit high, but we'll see as the season progresses.
As to where the storms may approach, that, as alawys is a bit much to predict.
For Floridians, the first week of June is the "Hurricane Preparedness Tax Holiday week", the items you can get sales tax free that week will be:
* Flashlights and other portable, self-powered light sources - $20 or less
* Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios - $75 or less
* Tarps - $50 or less
* Gas or diesel fuel containers - $25 or less
* Batteries - $30 or less (AAA, AA, C and D cell, and 6 and 9 volt batteries)
* Non-electrical food storage coolers - $30 or less
* Portable generators - $1,000 or less
* Carbon monoxide detectors - $75 or less
* Storm shutter devices - $200 or less
If this is your first year using this site, we tend to remain strictly on the topic at hand, and moderate heavily on purpose, which becomes very important during storm events when information and misinformation starts to flow like a river. Don't rely on us as the only source either, use the official site, media, and other links you can find here as well to help keep you informed.
Costal Storm Event Related Links
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed May 02 2007 12:04 AM |
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gfs paranoia
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for those of you who love to watch the gfs burp up phantom (and sometimes real) tropical systems, it's starting to want to squeeze a low up out of the western caribbean in the week 2 period. it looks halfway feasible synoptically, but of course everything in may is a real longshot. in a few days if the models are trying to do something there with some consistency, it might be time to start watching closely. there are usually a few false alarms before we get anything real, every year.
there hasn't been a named may system in 25 consecutive seasons, with arlene in 1981 being the last. that's actually a drought of sorts... during that time april has coughed up a tropical storm and a subtropical storm. every decade or two on average may will produce a storm, if the long-term record is to be believed.
HF 0059z02may
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 02 2007 01:11 PM |
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Re: gfs paranoia
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all of the models seem to be showing something brewing out of the bahamas around the 54 hour timeframe this weekend..... thoughts?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 02 2007 06:17 PM |
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Re: gfs paranoia
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Quote:
all of the models seem to be showing something brewing out of the bahamas around the 54 hour timeframe this weekend..... thoughts?
Noticed that as well, and did a quick peek at the phase Diagram analysis. The system appears to be more of a cold core event (TCs are warm core). So while anything is possible, it's probably not going to be a tropical event, at least according to the current model runs.
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu May 03 2007 01:43 PM |
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Re: gfs paranoia
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Dennis Philips noted on the Wednesday 11 p.m. weather report on channel 28 in Tampa that Titan was showing signs of a circulation in the Bahamas off the east coast of Florida.
But he was not very confident that it would do anything because water temps aren't at as high as they are in the Gulf of Mexico.
At least near the west coast of Florida from Clearwater to Hernando County water temps are 80° - 81°.
Florida could use a lot of rain, but I don't believe where I live we'll see much this weekend.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 03 2007 06:45 PM |
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Re: gfs paranoia
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Quote:
Dennis Philips noted on the Wednesday 11 p.m. weather report on channel 28 in Tampa that Titan was showing signs of a circulation in the Bahamas off the east coast of Florida.
But he was not very confident that it would do anything because water temps aren't at as high as they are in the Gulf of Mexico.
At least near the west coast of Florida from Clearwater to Hernando County water temps are 80° - 81°.
Florida could use a lot of rain, but I don't believe where I live we'll see much this weekend.
The models are starting to edge a little closer to giving the system a warm core, but with strong jet stream winds and cool water temps, it'd have to have several days out there to have any real chance.
With that being said, there appears to be some sort of cut off low being forecast for Sunday - Monday near bermuda that could hang out for a few days. Nothing major, but still something to look for in a few days.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 03 2007 06:53 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Season
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Doesn't look much like a La Nina brewing. Based on indications as of this month, it appears the ATL hurricane season will be barely over the climatological norm. It will be interesting to see what things look like in July.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri May 04 2007 03:30 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Season
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The latest CPC Forecast of SSTs issued today still shows a good La Nina event by July, but it also shows a cooling of the tropical Atlantic starting in August.
CPC 6-Month SST Forecast
ED
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 04 2007 04:34 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Season
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Say, Ed, do you happen to have last year's diagram of the 6-mo. SST forecast from about this time? I haven't been saving the CPC weekly ENSO discussions, but I am trying to recall -- wasn't a La Nina also forecast at this time in 2006? And if so, I'd guess that the diagram would have looked pretty similar to this year's at this time.
* * * * * * *
I did find some archived CPC information.
In April 2006, this NINO 3.4 forecast didn't show any indication of an El Nino event, but instead forecast ENSO-neutral conditions right out to the beginning of 2007:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin_0406/figf4b.gif
The forecast forum outlook for April 2006 was: "ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months." What's more, that was the continued outlook for May and June. And even in July, the forecast was only conservatively modified: "ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak warm episode (El Nino) conditions will develop by the end of 2006." This indicates the forecast is only accurate a month or two out.
The March 2007 outlook states, "A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Nina conditions is possible during the next 3 months." Yet Pacific equatorial SST anomalies continue to move in the positive, not negative, direction, and the thin finger of cool water continues to retreat -- while the remainder of the EastPAC north of the equator is warmer than usual, and the ITCZ is active.
* * * * * * *
I found I'd saved a discussion from May last year. Most interesting was that the dynamic models in the diagram did predict the El Nino in spite of the CPC's forecast -- the CPC statistical models were mainly below zero. This year the model situation is reversed, with most of the dynamic models predicting La Nina.
I also looked at the depth anom for both the equator and 2N and 2S for the last week. A bit more of the cooler water is surfacing at the equator now, probably because of surface winds.
This lends more support for a La Nina.
But I'm starting to feel like there is no ENSO-neutral, just El Nino + La Nina.
There seem to be not only elements of both, in a strange combo, but a holding pattern right now, until the next wave gets things moving again, and when that will happen and what direction it will push things is not predictable.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri May 04 2007 10:10 PM |
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coastal cutoff low
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check out what the globals are showing today...
that upper cutoff that most of them were punching northeast and well away from the coast is now shown by most to retrograde and loop cyclonically off the georgia/carolina coast for most of next week. most of them have it getting down to around 1000 mb. there probably isn't enough cold air aloft for it to hybridize, and ssts this time of year are nothing to write home about. the same feature in june would almost definitely become a tropical cyclone. just the same, should be a decent coastal low whaling away at the southeast coast next week. good blustery northeast flow in the southeast coastal plain might get the wildfires running around again, too...
HF 2305z04may
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sat May 05 2007 01:29 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Season
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On the six month hurricane and water temperature forecasts. I am not as concerned about the strength of the LaNina as I am concerned with the fact that there is NOT an ElNino (I refernce 2004 and 2005 just two examples). With respect to the water temperatures, I am MORE concerned that the Atlantic will be cooling and will not be as warm asthe Carribean later in the season. That means that more waves will have a chance to sneak past the Atlanticportionof the MDR instead of developing early and heading out to sea. In the mean time, if you revisit the forecast map, the temps in the Carribean and extreme southern GOMEX will be staying above average throughout the season. Of course, if this happens the math looks like this: More waves entering the Carribean, more waves/systems taking advantage of warmer temps closer to home, and even if the total season numbers are lower than forecast, we're gonna see more landfalls with this scenario.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat May 05 2007 01:48 AM |
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Re: coastal cutoff low
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I was going to say something about that if no one else posted. Noticed that myself. Although, it looks like GFS is backing off a bit now, and building the ridge out over the waters a lot more. Still, I would place a small wager that if at least the <1000 mb surface low verifies, with as many tightly-packed isobars look to be in there, and waters at least marginal for some hybridization, we could at least see something that gets invest tagged rather quickly, if nothing else.
In the LJ community I moderate, I recently opined in one of our polls that I think this year we will see a system form the first half of May. Despite the relatively cool SSTs, I see a lot more favorables going on at this time than at the same time last year.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat May 05 2007 05:20 PM |
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Re: coastal cutoff low
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Andrea??
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat May 05 2007 11:03 PM |
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hybrid watch
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some of the models have gotten a little more punchy with this system. several are keeping its vertical support (i.e. the core of the upper cutoff low) overhead longer, and pushing the thing further southwest over warmer waters. they tend to push it closer to the coast around midweek, and then let it wash out, upper westerlies ripping it up. whatever it does in the meantime will be a mite interesting. there's definitely some buzz about this thing, and most of the global models show it as a modest gale center. the end result one way or another will probably be that of a persistent late noreaster/perhaps tropical storm in southeast coastal waters, and maybe something for the folks in the coastal plain from north florida to north carolina if it decides to come much closer. has to act quick--this is an anomalous sort of synoptic feature that will not allow days and days for organization. it may look more possible than earlier, but anything in may is still quite a stretch. note there has not been a landfalling tropical cyclone in the u.s. in may since the 1970s, and those were subtropical.
on the side, it's a sad sight in greensburg, kansas. that may have been the first F-5 tornado in the u.s. in some years.
HF 2357z05may
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun May 06 2007 05:16 AM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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Well another season coming up....current system Hank mentions will probably be more subtropical. If they call it Andrea...Im not sure. Tell ya 1 thing....boy with this thing being a nontropical system at the start...this will deepen rapidly to probably 990mb by Monday night into Tuesday. My thinking will follow the ECMWF and the Ukmet... it races south under 30N to maybe 27-28N and 75W then moves WNW or NW towards the SE U.S. but when the system starts to weaken...it might get caught under the next weak surface ridge to its north and move back W or SW near the end of the week. Anyways Gale to Storm force winds off the coast of Florida-SCarolina starting Monday thru most of the week. 0Z nogaps just in and wants to take this generally SW then west for the first 4 days. Again it might be Andrea if it does acquire some tropical characteristics over the 73-78dg water temps..but as it weakens and acquires some...it might move with the LLflow later in the period. Best to wait for this to develop first and see the OZ runs Sunday night (monday morning).
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun May 06 2007 04:11 PM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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Looking at the model-projected wind fields and temperatures, there does seem to be plenty of support for one to argue that it has a respectable chance of acquiring a good deal of "tropical characteristics" over the next few. Whatever this coastal low ends up doing, a Hurricane Force Wind Warning is already up from OPC for the coastal waters - "W CENTRAL N ATLC CONTINENTAL SHELF AND SLOPE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM
TO 250 NM OFFSHORE...INCLUDING S OF GEORGES BANK FROM 1000 FM TO 250 NM OFFSHORE
ANZ086-062030- HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007"
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun May 06 2007 09:50 PM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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Wouldn't want to be in this area on a boat! Maybe we need a new thread discussion for this?
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
...N WALL OF GULF STREAM NEAR 33.3N 76.7W...33.7N 76.6W...35N
75.3W...
TONIGHT
N TO NW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO N TO NE 40 TO
55 KT...EXCEPT 55 TO 70 KT NEAR AND E OF THE GULF STREAM. SEAS
10 TO 16 FT BUILDING TO 18 TO 24 FT...EXCEPT 24 TO 30 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM...AND 10 TO 18 FT FAR SW PORTION. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM IN RAIN AND
BLOWING SPRAY
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun May 06 2007 11:20 PM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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Just a technical note, I've integrated a modified media wiki system into flhurricane, so some pages are now user editable (Links page, site usage, etc). Feel free to add/edit as needed. Some pages require you to be a registered user to modify, and it allows creation of new pages through it as well.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon May 07 2007 01:46 AM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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Latest update from buoy 41001, at 0050Z or 8:50pm EDT. Buoy is located near 34.68N -72.66W
050607 8:50 pm NNE 40.8kt gusts to 56.3kts wave ht 27.6 feet with a period of 13seconds barometer 29.77 air temp 59.5 sea temp 67.3 dew point 55.0 .
Using the latest satellite wind analysis this buoy would be closest to the center of the developing Low.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=41001
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 07 2007 02:05 AM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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been a while since we seen 27ft waves this close to the US... lol . Havent seen waves grow this fast in sometime... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41001&meas=sght&uom=E
nice pressure graident setting up... going to be some nice strong winds out of this one along the SE coast. Be intersting to see how this low sets up late monday into tuesday.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 07 2007 02:18 AM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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Seems the latest model runs appear to be trending a bit farther west for this system. The site I went to is missing the UKMet past 48, but only the CMC is pushing the system up the east coast. The GFS has abandoned that move and show it dying in place close to the coast.....need the rain, don't need the pounding surf and high winds. This system is getting wrapped up awfully quickly. Gotta be energy out there, even if the water isn't all that warm yet. This is getting very interesting. Feed us info as you get it!!
PS. I am now officially addicted to this site!!
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon May 07 2007 02:43 AM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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| nc_wx_watcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon May 07 2007 02:45 AM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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can you please tell me what site you went to I don't know any wx sites am new to this.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 07 2007 03:00 AM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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Quote:
can you please tell me what site you went to I don't know any wx sites am new to this.
this is the site that was posted in the thread that first mentioned this system may form. It works pretty well....click on submit with 'amination' in the drop-down box under 'HOUR' for any of them....then on the right side of the map that comes up, click 'forward' to set it in motion...the only ones not up-to-date are the GFDL and MM5FSU. Your own NC National Weather Service site will also have good info and good links to more.
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
Hope this link works....I haven't done one on this board before
| lightsgo |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon May 07 2007 05:26 AM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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Sure early to have a named storm. Hoping it would be quiet this year
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 07 2007 05:35 AM |
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Re: hybrid watch
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Still my forecast is on track below from early Sunday... so I reposted this!
Not for the first couple of days...On the models,.I will agree with the ECMWF,Nogaps,Ukmet and even some of the GFS.... At first the storm will be strong..but nontropical...a gale center....but as it slowly picks up some tropical characteristics...it will weaken...cause it wont be a non tropical system as its in transition....then as it comes close to Floridas NE coast and St Augustine...the LLC will seperate from the mid and upper low and be on its west side and get pushed sw between the mid and upper low now to its E and the weak ridge over the NE gulf of mexico. It will slide into florida and probably fizzle out. This is the atmospheric synopsis pattern setting up. This will bring mostly rain and breezy conditions...but still movement and strength of the LLC later in the period is still up in the air at this time.