MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:45 AM |
Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
4:55 PM Update 19 August 2007
Images of Dean as it skirts south of Jamaica:
The models have diverged a bit this afternoon, mostly to the south, the NHC's forecast is actually a little north of most of the models now. Belize may have to watch out for Dean.
Dean is approaching South of Jamaica now, and already trees and power down are being reported in Jamaica,
Also a wave southeast of Barbados in the Atlantic may be worth watching soon for new development.
10AM EDT Aug 19 2007 Update
9AM EDT Aug 19 2007 Update
Just an update of movement/position.
Original Update
Hurricane Dean remains a strong category 4 storm, still dealing with the change in eyewall structure this morning, but it still looks rather impressive on satellite, with a well defined eye.
Today is the day Jamaica will have to deal with Dean. The current forecast track takes the center just south of the island, but jogs either direction could take it closer or further away. (It appeared to jog north, thus closer, this morning)
Beyond Jamaica lies the Cayman Islands, which will be next near the path of Hurricane Dean. Conditions continue to suggest it moving generally westward and the National Hurricane Center's track is very reasonable. There is nothing, that i can see, right now that could change this general path.
This path would keep the system in Mexico and away from the United States, and the storm would have a bit of time over the Yucatan before it would emerge into the Bay of Campeche then hit the Central part of Mexico.
Do you have your own take on what Dean will do? Let us know here.
Discuss preparation, damage reports, and general Island Information here
Event Related Links:
Jamaican Media
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaica Observer (Newspaper)
Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio
Other
Jamaican Webcam recording... Treasure Beach
Jim Williams will be doing a live show on Dean tonight at hurricane city (8PM EDT)
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
{{Radarlink|jua|San Juan, Puerto Rico}}
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Southern Cuba Radar (Has Jamaica partially in range
Cuban Radar Mosaic (flhurricane long term recording of this radar)
Hurricane Watch.net
Microwave imagery of Dean
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Dean|04|4|2007|1|Hurricane Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic)}}
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 01:09 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Well RECON are once again in Dean. No vortex message as yet, but they are sending back HDOBs. These show sustained winds of Tropical Storm force are currently occuring about 65 mile east and east-southeast of Jamaica. Based on the current motion of Dean, sustained winds of Tropical Storm force should begin affecting the eastern parts of the island within the next 3 to 4 hours, although tropical storm force gusts will likey begin affecting the island imminently.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 01:14 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Vortex message in. We once again have concentric eyewalls.
126
URNT12 KNHC 191309
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/12:19:10Z
B. 16 deg 44 min N
074 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2445 m
D. 125 kt
E. 127 deg 23 nm
F. 206 deg 110 kt
G. 115 deg 013 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 11 C/ 3036 m
J. 19 C/ 3046 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO16-34
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 02
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SE QUAD 12:15:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 142 KT @ 12:27:20Z
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 01:43 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
This is off Dean, but I wasn't sure where to put it. The 3-7 day HPC forecast calls for a low crossing FL next weekend. This may be what the CMC is picking up:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3nav_precolor.html
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 01:48 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
The CMC is the only model showing a storm crossing Florida next weekend. Unless the other models get on board I personally don't put much stock in it.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 02:13 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Yes, the NHC stated that a low was going to cross Florida late next week barring changes in atmosphereic conditions. This does not translate into a storm, though. Hopefully, this will provide badly needed rain for SE Florida.
Dean is looking healthy- I just hope post Jamiaca Dean will only hit the sparsely populated area of the Yucatan south of the resort areas and truly diminish in strength as it crosses into the southern GOM.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 02:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
New recon:
254
URNT12 KNHC 191443
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/13:58:00Z
B. 16 deg 49 min N
074 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2448 m
D. 112 kt
E. 220 deg 020 nm
F. 324 deg 111 kt
G. 221 deg 023 nm
H. EXTRAP 926 mb
I. NA C/ 3040 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16-32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 08
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SE QUAD 12:15:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 134KT AT 14:06:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 02:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Looking at IR, it looks like the eye is quickly expanding in size to the 32NM eyewall.
Take a look at the JSL view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html
Two Eyewall Replacement Cycles (ERCs) in under 12 hours seems rather amazing. But it is over the warm eddy...so anything's possible.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 02:55 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
Looking at IR, it looks like the eye is quickly expanding in size to the 32NM eyewall.
Take a look at the JSL view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html
Two Eyewall Replacement Cycles (ERCs) in under 12 hours seems rather amazing. But it is over the warm eddy...so anything's possible.
It seems rather amazing that it is over the warm eddy, and yet, the only thing it has done is go through two ERCs, with no intensity changes inbetween (only slight weakening). Of course, the inflow could be disturbed by the land masses to the north, and the IR presentation does seem to indicate this may be the case. It will be a very close call with Jamaica. The eye is currently looking to go south of the island, but that would put them in the absolute worst conditions, getting the full brunt of the northern half of Dean as it goes by to the south, but likely causing the storm to at least maintain its intensity since the eye would remain over water.
The Jamaica radar site seems to be inoperable for the most part, or it would be providing some amazing images I think.
| weather999 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 02:57 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
It seems like every image loop i "rock" (just toggles the images back and forth), Dean appears to be expanding in size.
Also 11 AM NHC track is the furthest southerly track yet, I believe. Hopefully this ERC (maybe?) will end soon, and Dean will end up with one eyewall--that will just miss the southern Jamaican coast only IF, and IF the storm takes an even greater westerly turn.
| Nathan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 03:02 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Model data came out at 1200 Zulu 3hrs ago, but there now appears to be a new low pressure system forming over the Gulf approximately 24N 88W- this could add interest to the 18Z model data. This just formed, and is not part of the ULL over Florida that was discussed yesterday.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 03:06 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
Model data came out at 1200 Zulu 3hrs ago, but there now appears to be a new low pressure system forming over the Gulf approximately 24N 88W- this could add interest to the 18Z model data. This just formed, and is not part of the ULL over Florida that was discussed yesterday.
I think that is the same low, just that it has moved into the central Gulf now. Mets? Is this a new development, or just the same low?
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 03:10 PM |
| Attachment |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
The anticipated evolution of the High pressure ridge, which has been expected for the last few days, seems to have occurred. As can be noted in the graphic (Image attachment) , the high pressure ridge that is forming over the SE US has become much better defined. Interestingly, the ULL over the Gulf of Mexico seems to have become better defined as well over the nighttime hours. However, with the high pressure ridge now anchored due to the north of Dean, the effects of the ULL are very minimal. I do not see any real reason to go against the model trends that have been very consistent over the last few days. In addition, yesterdays jet stream looked more (trough-ridge-trough)...today, it appears to evolved back into a zonal type flow. I'd rule out interactions with a jet stream trough now and say that the interactions/ movement of Dean will be based on interactions with subtropical and mid latitude systems.
There is no reason to believe that the ULL in the GoMex will stall now. In previous posts, I mentioned that the ULL would have to stall around 90 to maybe 95 W for there to be any Dean Impacts on the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this time, I would say that in looking at the orientation of the ridge and the ULL...The long shot at Dean entering the Eastern Gulf will be virtually 0% if the ULL does not stall at 90W. That should happen this afternoon. I would say the central gulf will be 100% out of the woods if the ULL does not stall by 95W. Texas will still have to watch Dean (Especially southern Texas), but I would say the odds are going down there too. Overall, I would say that as of this moment...there is a 99% chance that Dean will have no affects in the eastern Gulf, 95% chance that Dean will not affect the Central Gulf, and probably a 75% chance that Dean will not affect Texas. I would expect those percentages to improve even more throughout the day.
Looks like the picture is really getting into focus now folks.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 03:13 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:Quote:
Model data came out at 1200 Zulu 3hrs ago, but there now appears to be a new low pressure system forming over the Gulf approximately 24N 88W- this could add interest to the 18Z model data. This just formed, and is not part of the ULL over Florida that was discussed yesterday.
I think that is the same low, just that it has moved into the central Gulf now. Mets? Is this a new development, or just the same low?
It's the same upper level low as it has moved west, perhaps with a weak surface reflection. Nothing to worry about as it doesn't change the track forecast or thinking.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 03:18 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
It looks like it's going to cur it close to Jamaica, but wind up south of it. Trends now suggest that the forecast track may be a bit too far north beyond 3 days, but it still seems good.
I'll be gone most of the afternoon, looks like the webcam at Treasure Beach went down at 9:15 (ironically probably the closest point to Jamaica that Dean will get based on the forecast track), the cuban radar still works. Best of luck to the Jamaicans.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 03:20 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
I keep seeing your continual posts of Recon and Vortex info when there is a direct link to this up-to-the minute information on the main page.
Is your information different from the site's info?
I PM'd to ask you yesterday yet you have not answered...so CFHC, I apologize for taking up space when I know you are so very busy...plus, many others wish to view this site.
3 reasons:
1. Many people don't know when the new recon will come out and would otherwise miss the recon data.
2. The recon link on the site only includes the most recent recon. Same with the NHC and the Ohio State locations. Historical data is not kept, so if you want to see what changed in the last hour and a half, you need to have written it down somewhere.
3. Recon is important to understanding the storm.
If the mods didn't want the data posted, I'm sure they would have asked me and the others that post it before now. Since I've been coming here (2 years now), every major storm people post Recon. I'm not the only person, I just happen to be getting to it faster than the others for this storm.
As for the PM, for some reason the flashing "you have new mail" image never appeared. Not sure why. I had three unread messages from last night.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 03:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
New microwave data on NRL.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/04L.DEAN/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html
I don't see any sign of the 2nd eyewall now. The red ring appears to be the outer eyewall (~50nm radius, estimated based on degrees covered). The remnants of the inner eyewall are visible just to the ENE of the center as a small yellow band on the green. Looks like the latest ERC is nearly finished; it just has to finish clearing out the eye.
IR also shows a large, stabilizing eye:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 03:53 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
This is interesting. Take a look at these new model runs I just saw on Accuweather's site. The runs before these had every single one going into Mexico and now there are some who are trying to put a northerly turn back into Texas. What could these models be seeing that would cause them to start favoring that?
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...&stormNum=3
Shawn
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 04:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
The more northerly tracks are by primarily statistical models, not dynamical models. The statistical models are not known for being very accurate on hurricane tracks.
See: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al042007.png
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
The double eyewall is clearly visible on visible satellite. I have enhanced the visible satellite to make it move clear.
Original (NRL): Link
Greyscale Enhanced: http://www.vorklift.com/temp/dean_enhanced_double_eyewall.png
Color Enhanced: http://www.vorklift.com/temp/dean_colorenhanced_double_eyewall_visble.png
Recon recently found concentric eyewalls at 16 and 36 NMs.
Edit:
P.S. - is anyone else around today?
| Nathan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:07 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
I'm here, just sighing a breath of relief that Texas is looking like its well outside the bullseye.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:10 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
P.S. - is anyone else around today?
I was wondering the same thing.... sure is quiet around here.
Looking at the Cuba radar now... very interesting images of the double eyewall there as well...
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../plnMAXw01a.gif
Dean is inching ever closer to the south coast of Jamaica. It doesn't look like the eye is actually going to cross the coast, but it's definately moving north of due west now (officially WNW per the 2pm advisory)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
12Z GFDL model is nuts. Not in terms of track or intensity, but in terms of keeping the system intact for it to reach the Gulf of California and the Pacific Ocean!
Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:17 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Well, considering what has happened with Erin and how it is more impressive in its structure now than when it came ashore I guess anything is possible. I wouldn't doubt that Dean could hold together.
Shawn
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:19 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
I think everyone is about 'caned out and trying to enjoy their sunday for the moment. The images (Satellite and radar) that both ofyou have provided are really something. Unfortunately for the south coastof Jamaica...it doesn't look like they are going to get off as easy as in other storms from the past. In some ways, this is the worst way toget hit by a hurricane. I believ the eyewillpass just south of the island, but the eyewall replacement cycle is basically at a point where it covers a very wide windfield. Since the storm hasn't weakened much/if any...This means that southern jamaica will probably go through a longer event of destructive winds...I'd even suspect there will possibly be hurricane force wind gusts on the northern side of the island. It is very unfortunate...
| anomaly18 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:22 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
Edit:
P.S. - is anyone else around today?
Still here. Just listening to live feed of Jamaican radio and d/l latest satellite.
I have seen talk on a few other sites about the Gulf ULL slowing down. What effect would this have on the direction/intensity of Dean. Anyone think its slowing? I'm not convinced.
IR:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
WV:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:26 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
I'm been watching, just not much to add. I did notice that the buoy drop "recon" flight was flying around most of the morning around 20N 83W.
Does anyone know if that buoy data will be publicly available? I couldn't find any reference to it, other than others' remarks about the POTD that mentioned it.
Bill
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:30 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
The latest radar image appears to show that the inner eyewall has collapsed. It's only in the very last frame, though, so it's hard to tell.
| anomaly18 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Here is an amazing loop of the past 24 hours of Dean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_04L/webManager/last24hrs.gif
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:39 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Well...Nothing to significant to write home about that will affect long term track...The upper level low seems to be on a continued westward moment. Frommy earlier post today, it is something to watch...but with low probability of effects.
With that said, I will not be surprised to see a slightly north of track motion commencing any time from now through the next 18 hours...Which will bemore of a case of shorter term motions as the Upper Ridge in the Atlantic and the ULL in the Gulf interact. I base this on some interesting observations of the Upper level flow over the Bahamas/Florida late thismorning and this afternoon. This morning, the upper level flow was more out of the east-souteast. Asof now, this flow has tightened up a bit (more wind barbs and some higher winds). Also...these winds are now coming out of the SE instead of the ESE. So this may help to impart a slightly North of track motion over the next 6-18 hours. In the longer term (24+ hours) however... I don't see any significant change to the overall thinking at this time.
LINK: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:40 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
I'm been watching, just not much to add. I did notice that the buoy drop "recon" flight was flying around most of the morning around 20N 83W.
Does anyone know if that buoy data will be publicly available? I couldn't find any reference to it, other than others' remarks about the POTD that mentioned it.
Bill
It's my understanding that the buoys aren't necessarily for wind measurements but are more for water measurements, specifically water temperature and the depth of the warmest water. I could be wrong, however. I'm guessing that basic meteorological data will also come from them, but I tend to think that direct public access will be fairly limited.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 06:42 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
Here is an amazing loop of the past 24 hours of Dean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_04L/webManager/last24hrs.gif
Want to note that that is a "morphing" animation of the microwave data. It only has a few images that it is turning into an animation through a dynamic morphing method.
Still neat though
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:01 PM |
|
|
current Kingston weather
|
not bad at all!? Kingston weather
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:05 PM |
|
Re: current Kingston weather
|
Latest IR image shows convection deeping somewhat again, although the eye is now cloud-filled. The weather may not be "bad" right now in Jamaica, but it's about to go down hill in a hurry.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:09 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Looks to me that they dropped the buoy to the WSW of Grand Cayman... Recon is halfway back to MS.. other plane is doing recon mission on Dean...
Attachment
The green line is AF 305.... they were at 1,000ft on the NE heading in the image.. dropped the buoy i think just to the WSW of Grand Cayman... Yellow is Recon AF304... near the storm
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:24 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Man, looking at the last couple of frames of movement in the IR loop, it looks like the eye is going to miss just to south of Jamaica but I think there is a good chance that the northern eyewall is going to clip Kingston.
I am listening to the live feed and they are already reporting electricity outages (although they say that the energy company has not yet locked down the grid), flooding and many building collapses and wall collapses inculding one at a police station.
God help these people, I know what they are about to go through and hopefully they can pull through! They've been through Gilbert and Ivan and many others, so they know what to expect.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:35 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
amazing animation one of the best ive seen
and dean just goes westish... cmc and gfdl seem on the money, so does nhc
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:41 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
Man, looking at the last couple of frames of movement in the IR loop, it looks like the eye is going to miss just to south of Jamaica but I think there is a good chance that the northern eyewall is going to clip Kingston.
I am listening to the live feed and they are already reporting electricity outages (although they say that the energy company has not yet locked down the grid), flooding and many building collapses and wall collapses inculding one at a police station.
God help these people, I know what they are about to go through and hopefully they can pull through! They've been through Gilbert and Ivan and many others, so they know what to expect.
CNN indicated this morning that power would be cut off at 11am, but perhaps they had bad information. It does indeed appear that Jamaica is beginning to bear the full brunt of the eyewall, based upon the radar and IR loop. You mention that they've been through Gilbert and Ivan and many others, but that's a misnomer. Neither of those storms was a Cat 4 when it crosses Jamaica - they exploded in the NW Caribbean after going by/over Jamaica. This is the closest the island has come to this kind of fury in a long, long, long time from what I have heard (if they've ever had anything like this before).
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
I think Hurricane Allen was the last big Cat 4 storm Jamaica had to deal with on it's door step. Allen passed just north of the island, though, allowing the weaker southern quadrants to affect the island mostly.
Hurricane Gilbert passed over Jamaica, but only as a Category 3. While still nasty, not as bad as a Category 4.
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:51 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
According to postings on StormCarib, power went off as scheduled, but power and cable were turned back on for a while. They were expecting it to be phased off as Dean enters the areas. It's been a while since anyone posted (about 1:30 their time) so I am guessing it is probably off now.
My prayers are with all in Dean's path....
| Cash |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:53 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Lois, your post prompted me to look through the CMC model graphic output. What in the hell is that at hour 144 (CMC at 144 hrs) bearing down on Ft. Lauderdale?
I recognize that models have limited skill in predicting storm formation, but that was just a surprising sight.
Cash
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 07:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
I believe Gilbert was 135 and pretty much tracked right over Kingston where this is seemingly going to miss to the South at 145. I think that's pretty close.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 08:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
We all know that the CMC is not a good tropical forecasting model.. but every once in a while it gets lucky... There is not much model support from the others on this system... I think the 11pm mentioned the low that maybe the CMC is picking up on... which right now its to the SE of Barbados....
Low in the Atlantic
Right now i'm not thinking it will make it north of the Islands... just seems to hostile.... but then again some of the globals are weakening the ridge in the atlantic down the road... Something to watch... also there appears to be another good wave about to come off Affrica in the coming days...
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 08:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wave CMC modeled
|
Here are the NHC thoughts of the wave that the CMC is developing...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 46W IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE DATA AND SSMI-DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG
20N49W 15N52W 8N54W. A 101O MB SFC LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 11N53W. CU LINES DEFINE THE EXPOSED CENTER OF THE LOW.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 46W-50W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE LOW. THIS TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
NE CARIBBEAN MON.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 08:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Yes, they just had someone from the power company on and they have started to lock down the power grid in the six easternmost parishes.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 08:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
hey clark, (or anyone else) do you have any comments on the mm5fsu from 12z today? Usually this one of the good models. But its appears to on the north side of the guidance?
Nah, I don't really have any comments on it. I wouldn't put much stock into that precise evolution. -Clark
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 08:23 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Looks like the outer eyewall of Dean is just south of the coast - and I do mean *just* south of the coast... just a little more than the diameter of the eye.
Storm Hunter - that model appears to turn Dean NW after it gets by Jamaica, before turning it back to the west. That scenario would, in the short term, be very nerve-racking!
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 08:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
listening to feed with jim williams and i heard they say it was being done in stages so maybe that is the confusion on the power situation...
from listening to the media he is playing you get the feeling they prepare, hunker down and hype less
just have to see how much of the eye wall it will get and where the storms are within the eye wall as that part of the wall hits any specific area
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 08:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
i believe the cmc is very good at finding future tropical systems.. may not be good on track and isnt gfdl but it has been very on the money in being an early indicator of tropical development this year
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 08:50 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Well, while the model talk is ongoing...I do find it interesting that when we (or at least in this case) decided to agree with the models...The models have decided to disagree with themselves. They spread in the models seems wider this afternoon that it had been for the last day or so. I'd also like to make particular reference to the 12Z HWRF and GFDL runs... I would expect these to carry a bit more agreement with each other than they are now...With specific mention to how the two models handle Dean after the Yucatan landfall. Anybody have any thoughts on their end?
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 08:57 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Dem, something to add to what you just mentioned. I just noticed that on the 5:00 advisory Texas (all the way up to around Corpus Christi) has been put back in the cone. I find that very interesting to say the least. What do you think of this?
Never mind...it was updated again and it's not showing Texas in it now.
Shawn
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 09:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Kingston link now showing a pressure of 992 and a SE wind at 81.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 09:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
even the size and shape of the eye and its eye wall makes a difference, not just wobbles
you can see the eye open... with it the storms end up a bit further north
so many factors here
| anomaly18 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 10:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Last frame of the IR brings the eye VERY CLOSE to the coast. Not sure if its a northward wobble or not, but its unfortunate for Jamaica.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 10:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
Last frame of the IR brings the eye VERY CLOSE to the coast. Unfortunate wobble for Jamaica.
NBC news reported that the eyewall was 5 miles offshore.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 10:47 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Looking at the latest WV loop it sure looks like Dean may be catching up with the ULL...at least gaining ground some. I know it's not enough to make a difference but I wonder if maybe it might throw a wrench into things and could be what a couple of the models are picking up on and why they have a change in the direction of Dean once it hits the Yucatan.
Shawn
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 10:54 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
The models that have been mentioned above remind me of the "pinball" theory. When an entity spins up, and then runs into something at a high rate of speed, it does a glancing blow and changes directions. I hope the pinball machine is fixed so every one becomes winners and the pinball melts.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:01 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
The Cuba radar shows that in my estimation, Dean made its closest approach to Jamaica at around 6:30pm ET, skirting JUST below the extreme southern tip of the island. From the looks of the radar, the extreme edge of the eyewall was on the coastline, but the clear eye was not. I'd say five miles may be about right, if it was that far even.
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:17 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
as a side note, erin's not finished
please refrain from one liner. one sentence post... thanks-danielw
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2007/erin_okc.gif
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:18 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
TWC is now reporting that Kingston just reported a sustained wind of 114 mph with a gust to 138. The dangerous right-front quadrant is scraping the coastline, with hurricane-force winds likely to be extending over the entire island nation, especially over the south and east-facing beaches and hills. Some of the higher terrain may easily experience winds that are a full category above what is being experienced closer to sea level. Rainfall totals along the south and east facing slopes stand to exceed 5-10 inches, resulting in deadly flash flooding runoffs.
I'm probably not the only one to detect a wobble ever so slightly to the north as Dean is scraping by, generally on a westward course. This untimely wobble looks to lengthen the stretch of the island affected directly by the deadly eyewall, and probably the duration that the most intense portions of the hurricane rake it.
As an aside, please everyone keep the one-liners and chat room style discussion off the board during active weather.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:20 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Lois,
I respect your opinion, however must differ wholehardedly regarding your take on the Canadian Model. Polar opposite from the 'ol NOGAPS ( sadly neutered for several years now ), CMC strikes me as a tropical cyclone model on "crack" ( no offense to our Hudson Bay neighbors to the north ). To be fair, often times an Atlantic system WILL form and in fact picked up by the CMC model. That said, quite common an occurance would be the other 79 tropical systems forecasted to form by CMC simply only to end up as "ghost cyclones". For whatever the reason, I have found early season and end of season formation picked up with somewhat better accuracy by CMC.
In object fairness, I must admit that CMC has for several runs now been forecasting "the son of Dean" to form east of Florida, and then to slam into Central ( and now Southern Fla ). Up to today, there has been only slight hints of agreement from some of the other models, yet today a greater admission by some other models of at least a significant inverted trough approaching from the SE. Of course on satellite, one cannot deny that what appears to be 14 3/4 vorticity points all contained in one massive high amplitude wave, is in fact approaching 60W with some serious 29C octane fuel dead ahead. Even the European is "hinting" at something around days 6-10 near Fla.
As a fellow "model monger", I too check the CMC each run. I am looking for consistancy of runs, followed by some consensus by the other models, especially the UK and/or European. GFS has started to drop what it was detecting as a developing system east of Trinidad ( and there is a legitimate vort. here too ). Given the outflow shear from Dean, it would appear reasonable that something "could" form in the more convective area farther to the north where CMC is forecasting. Guess a few days to come will prove whether or not this "outlier" model was on to something or not. My guess would be to lean conservatively towards a strong wave to approach Florida in the 4-7 days to come, perhaps with some weak 1010mb spin-up towards the end of the cycle. Now that i've erred on the side of "blah", watch the 0Z runs tonight have four major models bringing the "son of Dean" upon Florida's doorstep!
Andy
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:26 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Radar is notoriously unreliable in terms of detecting motion of hurrixcanes, but having said that, it does appear that Dean's eye is paralleling the southern coast of Jamaica, moving a bit north of west.
Maybe it's just me, but the ULL appears to have slowed down, too.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:33 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
Lois,
I respect your opinion, however must differ wholehardedly regarding your take on the Canadian Model. Polar opposite from the 'ol NOGAPS ( sadly neutered for several years now ), CMC strikes me as a tropical cyclone model on "crack" ( no offense to our Hudson Bay neighbors to the north ). To be fair, often times an Atlantic system WILL form and in fact picked up by the CMC model. That said, quite common an occurance would be the other 79 tropical systems forecasted to form by CMC simply only to end up as "ghost cyclones". For whatever the reason, I have found early season and end of season formation picked up with somewhat better accuracy by CMC.
In object fairness, I must admit that CMC has for several runs now been forecasting "the son of Dean" to form east of Florida, and then to slam into Central ( and now Southern Fla ). Up to today, there has been only slight hints of agreement from some of the other models, yet today a greater admission by some other models of at least a significant inverted trough approaching from the SE. Of course on satellite, one cannot deny that what appears to be 14 3/4 vorticity points all contained in one massive high amplitude wave, is in fact approaching 60W with some serious 29C octane fuel dead ahead. Even the European is "hinting" at something around days 6-10 near Fla.
As a fellow "model monger", I too check the CMC each run. I am looking for consistancy of runs, followed by some consensus by the other models, especially the UK and/or European. GFS has started to drop what it was detecting as a developing system east of Trinidad ( and there is a legitimate vort. here too ). Given the outflow shear from Dean, it would appear reasonable that something "could" form in the more convective area farther to the north where CMC is forecasting. Guess a few days to come will prove whether or not this "outlier" model was on to something or not. My guess would be to lean conservatively towards a strong wave to approach Florida in the 4-7 days to come, perhaps with some weak 1010mb spin-up towards the end of the cycle. Now that i've erred on the side of "blah", watch the 0Z runs tonight have four major models bringing the "son of Dean" upon Florida's doorstep!
Andy
Here in Miami, the winds have been strong today. We have also had a greater increase of cooler weather. My question is, is this a part of Dean? I would doubt that, however the radar here does show some sort of storm that is forming and is going to hit us in 4-7 days. Would you mind if you could tell me a bit more about this "storm" that you can see on the radar or CMC? What do you see happening? We do have some strange weather here going on right now.
Another Question, when I am looking at the radar here, what is that wierd blue thing that extends from Miami to Ft Lauderdale Area and goes off to sea?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=amx&product=NCR&loop=yes
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:43 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
Another Question, when I am looking at the radar here, what is that wierd blue thing that extends from Miami to Ft Lauderdale Area and goes off to sea?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=amx&product=NCR&loop=yes
Looks like a radar blip to me. I've seen it before but don't know exactly what it's called or what exactly causes it. I know here on the west coast, "chaff" from military planes running exercises can interfere with radar (Robert Winkler on 2 has talked about it before, he's former military), but that's a different signature.
It's not anything to worry about, in other words.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Thank you.
What is the storm that everyone here is calling "little dean" that is going to hit us in 4-7 days? Do you know anything of this? Is there radar on this?
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:51 PM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
April,
Well, I too am in S. Florida ( Broward Co. ). You are right in that the winds have certainly picked up quite a bit. In this case however, these winds are neither directly from Hurricane Dean, nor any "yet to verify storm". These winds, while not of Dean's circulation, certainly are being caused in part due to the tightening pressure gradient from higher surface pressures to our north, and Dean's lower pressure to the south. The combination of such a very fluid weather dynamic is simply a "squeeze play". Windy in part due to Dean, just not directly from Dean.
As for the blue line on radar, I did see that as well. This is a false return, and appears to merely be what I have always called a "radar sweep signal". These fast moving showers coming over Florida are ver shallow, most with tops under 15,000 feet. In order for local radar to pick up on these showers, the radar itself must be tilted much more towards the horizon. This would serve less a tool to measure the high tops of an afternoon Everglades severe storm with tops of around 50,000-60,000 feet. Doplar can better determine how severe a storm may be along with different level vorticities. When the radar is tilted as such, it then misses what might be many very shallow rain-showers such as what we are experiencing now.
I do not see any real evidence of any other storm forming at this time. Radar may only detect this if showing cyclonic turning ( which it is not ), and so far no other forming tropical cyclones in our neck of the world. Things could certainly change with time......
Andy
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
It has not formed yet. There is discussion in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, but the conditions are not yet favorable.
| qtpa2ts |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 19 2007 11:56 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
I have a few questions for whomever wishes to answer.
I live in Corpus Christi, Texas. Our pressure has been dropping. Is that signifigant to anything?
What are these other models on the link below that are shooting Dean up north?
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...&stormNum=3
The thing off to the ESE of Florida.. What is that and how would it effect Dean if at all? And also on this radar below.. If Erin is joining that ULL (or whatever it is doing on this radar,) what does that mean for the ULL and Dean?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
I apologize if this is the wrong forum to post these questions on. If it is please let me know the right direction to go and except my apology.
Thank you.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:00 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Weathernet, thank you for your input. I shall keep in touch with you regarding this "storm" that we seem to have going over our heads right now, and the one to form.
RandomChaos, where can I find this discussion that the NHC has? Do you have a possible link?
Thanks
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
On the NHC, click the "Tropical Weather Outlook" link just above the active storms section.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:05 AM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Wthout knowing the author of the models pulling Dean North, you need to determine if they are statistical or numerical. Statistical models show you where Dean could go, on average, compared to other storms in the same vicinity as Dean historically. While numerical models use dynamic real time data I.E. GFDL,NOGAPS, UKMET and the 'tropical suite' amongst others
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:11 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
On the NHC, click the "Tropical Weather Outlook" link just above the active storms section.
Could you please provide a link to this storm. I can not seem to find it on the NHC website. Thank you
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:17 AM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
QT,
Took a look at the link you asked about showing potential future tracks for Dean. This link is to Accu-Weather, and while these tracks may contain more and less accurate tools to forecast, there is little detail here to differentiate, thus means nothing. Here is one link from FSU. Click on the link and then hit the "forward" button to start the loop. The FSU superensemble is a fairly new model and often fairly accurate. Others I would consider would include GFS, GFDL, UK, and EURO. Here is the link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Whoa. Weather Underground is reporting 173mph winds in Kingston, Jamaica.
http://english.wunderground.com/global/stations/78397.html
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:18 AM |
|
|
Weird Blue thing
|
The weird blue thing is associated with sunrise and sunset. Apparently the solar radiation bounces the radar signal back at a frequency similar to light rain.
You should see the same blue line on nearly every radr as the sun rises or sets in that particular area.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:23 AM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:Quote:
On the NHC, click the "Tropical Weather Outlook" link just above the active storms section.
Could you please provide a link to this storm. I can not seem to find it on the NHC website. Thank you
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
...or just click the link on the left-hand side of the page.
Regarding Dean, in case it hasn't been mentioned already, Brownsville, TX has a voluntary evacuation order in place: Brownsville Herald
Also, if you're so inclined, you can review the Texas Department of Emergency Management current situational report here: ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/Hurricane%20Dean%20SITREP%207%20081907.pdf
Texas is taking no chances....
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:23 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Weird Blue thing
|
hmmm... just read the 5:30 TWO
I posted earlier that closest sat pic i had of the low to the SE of Barbados.... But i am a little confused in the wording of the text... This low seems to be what some models are showing to swing through the NE part of the islands into the atlantic... and the CMC blows it up too a system off of Florida... which i not quite sure about that yet... will have to see what the 00Z runs bring.
"THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Does anyone understand what that line means?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:29 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
Whoa. Weather Underground is reporting 173mph winds in Kingston, Jamaica.
http://english.wunderground.com/global/stations/78397.html
I checked that observation against the ADDS. The 173mph is estimated... as most , if not all wind sensors fail before 150mph. One of the possible exceptions being a hot wire anemometer.
Place MKJP in the blank and click the translated version.
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/metars/
MKJP 200000Z E11099OO150KT 0KM BKN008 SCT010CB OVC080 25/24 Q1001
SACA31 KWBC 192100 RRA
MTRKJP
METAR MKJP 192100Z 14070KT 1000 BKN010 SCT016 OVC080 XX/XX Q0992
000
SACA31 KWBC 192000 RRD
MTRKJP
METAR MKJP 192000Z 09013KT 6000 BKN018 SCT020CB OVC100 27/21 Q0995
The bold E is the eastimated observation.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:30 AM |
|
Re: Weird Blue thing
|
I interpret that to mean that the showers are several hundred miles to the North of the low which is SE of Barbados.
Bill
| qtpa2ts |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Post deleted.
Use your PM feature for questions such as this.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:33 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Weird Blue thing
|
Not to get off of topic here,
but it appears that recently there has been a Tornado Warning issued for Key West. I was wondering if this would have caused the increased winds here in Miami as well as the darkening clouds or is this that low pressured system developing that is on top of deans high pressure system that people were talking about in erlier posts??
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:46 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Weird Blue thing
|
The storms over southern Florida are the outer fringes of the feeder band system for Hurricane Dean.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Weird Blue thing
|
Really? Wow..than this storm must be a large storm that is strong. Thank you for your feedback.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:53 AM |
|
|
|
FL Storms
|
Looks to be a combo of three things causing the storms over FL right now.
Dean's feeder band forming offshore Key West.
The ULL in the Western Gulf
And forcing from the High trying to move in westward from the SW Atlantic.
And then you have the FL sea breeze to add to the mix.
Dean and the ULL are probably adding a decent amount of vorticity (spin) to the atmosphere.
The ULL has kicked up our wind speeds here today and I'm 60 inland.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:58 AM |
|
|
Re: FL Storms
|
has the ULL slowed down or has it center slowed or stalled out over the gulf? I don't know or know how to find out but I want to know so I can tell others in another wx blog if they are correct or not for saying that.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:59 AM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Quote:
QT,
Took a look at the link you asked about showing potential future tracks for Dean. This link is to Accu-Weather, and while these tracks may contain more and less accurate tools to forecast, there is little detail here to differentiate, thus means nothing. Here is one link from FSU. Click on the link and then hit the "forward" button to start the loop. The FSU superensemble is a fairly new model and often fairly accurate. Others I would consider would include GFS, GFDL, UK, and EURO. Here is the link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html
Just to clear up any possible confusion, that is NOT a link to the FSU SENS, that is a link to the FSU Tropical MM5 run. SENS data is not currently available to the public.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:02 AM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
I doubt that the wind is gusting to 173mph in Kingston, considering that the city has remained well north of the eye wall. It appears that Portland Point on the southernmost peninsula of Jamaica came closest to the northern eye wall. Fortunately, the area is a designated protected area and there are no major population centers in this region.
This is about as bad as a hurricane can be in Jamaica without a direct hit. The island is on the worst side of the storm, with the wind and surge being enhanced by the fast forward movement. The storm surge must be incredible on the concave segments of coastline on Jamaica's south and southeast coasts.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:04 AM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: FL Storms
|
well looks like the SOME of the models are flopping again.. (nuthing unexpected).... they jumped to the north "some"...nothing MAJOR!!! Just BAMS 00z suite are on north side of the NHC 5pm track... Will see what the rest hold... Still looks like a Double whammy hit for Mexico.
Added a nice sat shot of Dean.
Also heres a Water Vapor loop that might be useful to some
Hurricane Region
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:09 AM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
I just saw that 173 mph report on wunderground. I'm assuming that is a gust from the ESE? I'm afraid the damage is going to be catastrophic due to the northeast quadrant hitting Kingston. A day ago it looked as if Dean would track just north of Jamaica which would have spared some of the more densely populated areas. Unfortunately that wasn't the case.
Also, looking at the water vapor of the gulf of mexico it appears the Upper Level Low has slowed over the western gulf. Does anyone else see this? Is the ULL still expected to still track west toward Texas keeping Dean on a more southerly track?
Quote:
Whoa. Weather Underground is reporting 173mph winds in Kingston, Jamaica.
http://english.wunderground.com/global/stations/78397.html
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:11 AM |
|
Re: FL Storms
|
If you look at the link I provided of the water vapor loop you can see where the eastern side of the circulation for the ULL starts right around the Yucatan and where Dean's western circulation starts and you can see there is not much distance between them now. There was quite a bit of distance between them this morning.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;basin=atlantic
Shawn
| Texas Cane Tracker |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:14 AM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Being on the dirty side of the storm, there is no doubt Kingston is experiencing some very strong winds, however I do not believe that the 170mph + report is accurate. Keep in mind that the eye of the storm did stay over water and the strongest winds are usually found in the N.E. eye wall.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: FL Storms
|
Recon is almost into the system now... There just off the coast of Jamica flying west at 10,000ft
At 01:04:00Z (last observation), the observation was 32 miles (52 km) to the SSE (148°) from Kingston, Jamaica. Winds on SFMR are around 45mph.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:25 AM |
|
|
Re: FL Storms
|
Conditions at Aug 19, 2007 - 09:00 PM EDTAug 19, 2007 - 08:00 PM CDTAug 19, 2007 - 07:00 PM MDTAug 19, 2007 - 06:00 PM PDTAug 19, 2007 - 05:00 PM ADTAug 19, 2007 - 04:00 PM HDT
2007.08.20 0100 UTC
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain showers, squalls
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
ob MKJP 200100Z 110P99KT 0000 +SHRASQ BKN008 SC010CB OVC080
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 9 PM (1) Aug 19 heavy rain showers, squalls
8 PM (0) Aug 19 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.56 (1001)
7 PM (23) Aug 19 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.47 (0998)
6 PM (22) Aug 19 29.35 (0994)
5 PM (21) Aug 19 29.29 (0992) SE 81
4 PM (20) Aug 19 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.32 (0993) E 28
3 PM (19) Aug 19 78 (26) 71 (22) 294.80 (9983) N 9 rain
2 PM (18) Aug 19 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.56 (1001) NNW 12 light rain
1 PM (17) Aug 19 80 (27) 69 (21) 29.62 (1003) N 16 light rain
Noon (16) Aug 19 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.65 (1004) WNW 10 light rain
11 AM (15) Aug 19 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.68 (1005) W 9 light rain
10 AM (14) No Data
9 AM (13) Aug 19 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.71 (1006) N 8 light rain
8 AM (12) No Data
7 AM (11) No Data
6 AM (10) No Data
5 AM (9) Aug 19 84 (29) 71 (22) 29.71 (1006) NNW 12
4 AM (8) Aug 19 No Data
3 AM (7) Aug 19 82 (28) 69 (21) 29.74 (1007) E 5
2 AM (6) Aug 19 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.74 (1007) N 14
1 AM (5) Aug 19 84 (29) 66 (19) 29.80 (1009) NNE 3
Midnight (4) Aug 19 No Data
11 PM (3) Aug 18 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) SE 5
Oldest 10 PM (2) Aug 18 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) ENE 7
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The information presented here is taken from products produced by the U.S. National Weather Service and other national and international agencies
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: FL Storms
|
this was kingston Jamica
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:46 AM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
Jason,
Thanks for the heads up; can you elaborate on some of the model distinctions between FSU's SENS and the MM5? I would be curious as to how each distinct model carried Dean during the last 2-3 days. Moreso, would be curious as to the primary differing variables which seperates each from the other.
Andy
The FSU MM5 is a dynamic model, like the GFS, NAM, etc...it is the 5th version of the Penn State NonHydrostatic Mesoscale Model (which itself is the basis of the NAM-WRF if I am not mistaken). The SENS is not a distinct model, its an ensemble, which means it takes other model output, averages and weights the output and then comes up with a forecast. It is similiar in concept to the CONU and GUNS in the ATFC fields, but uses a more advanced weighting and averaging system.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:47 AM |
|
Re: FEMA Phone Call???
|
Post cancelled due to reply reassignment under another topic.
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:51 AM |
|
|
Re: FL Storms
|
Sorry if this is off the topic of Dean which is obviously a very serious situation, but a new area of concern is rapidly developing northeast of the leewards. Looks like the CMC model was right in picking up a developing low, and now some of the other models are hinting at a closed low developing in the bahamas during the next few days. The blow-up of convection northeast of the leewards has been impressive this evening, and there appears to be a mid-level spin around 21N 55W.
Conditions will only get better for this to develop in the coming days while it moves W or WNW towards the Bahamas then possible towards the EC of FL. Think we will have a new invest tomorrow.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
TG
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: FEMA Phone Call???
|
Vortex out... post removed
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:01 AM |
|
RE: New Vortex Message
|
New vortex is out, but you picked up one from yesterday. Here is the new one. Pressure at 926. As I suspected from recent IR pics, there is only one eyewall now.
URNT12 KNHC 200150
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/01:31:00Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
078 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2466 m
D. 121 kt
E. 073 deg 16 nm
F. 160 deg 125 kt
G. 075 deg 021 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 7 C/ 3049 m
J. 16 C/ 3044 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z
Bill
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
[delete me - BillD beat me to it]
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
i think that was the wrong recon... Notice the time
lol.. You guys got it... I noticed i saw a 926mb reading... in the data
| Nathan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:07 AM |
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Well as said much earlier in the day if the ULL stalls out before or around 90-95 West it might bring the track further north, but Im thinking that probably wont happen.
| Mike N |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:15 AM |
|
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
It appears that the ULL in the Gulf is slowing down if not possibly beginning to stall. Check out the WV loop.
Also, seems the system NE of the Lesser Antilles will encounter shear if not already. Enough to keep it at bay??
| Nathan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:20 AM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
I have not looked lately but where is that High Pressure ridge and and is it going to make it down to push the ULL out, or will we be looking at the ULL as a player over the next few days.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:21 AM |
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Dean is now approaching the warmest (hottest?) part of the Caribbean, I believe, and just looking at the IR loop, it appears that the eye is shrinking, and doing so at a quick pace, so it's not surprising to see a lower pressure and a single eyewall. Curious that the estimated surface winds (121kts) are very close to the FL winds (125kts)...
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:24 AM |
|
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
|
The ULL does look like it has slowed down or stalled but it also looks like the ridge may be breaking down the ULL as it seems to be much stronger and is winning out. So the ULL still may not be a factor even though it has stalled.
Shawn
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:28 AM |
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Quote:
Well as said much earlier in the day if the ULL stalls out before or around 90-95 West it might bring the track further north, but Im thinking that probably wont happen.
Anything is possible, though. Indeed, I've been looking at the ULL periodically today, and it has at times looked like it was stalling. Dean has obviously continued moving due west, though - but that makes sense because there was some distance between the two systems. Now, however, the inflow into the ULL, so to speak, is very close to the edge of Dean's moisture envelope. Will it be enough to yank Dean northward? The models do not think so, and neither does the NHC. I would put the possibility at something greater than zero, but I don't know how much (not high, at this point, but keep an eye on it).
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Looks like recon may have found stronger winds.... at
02:26:00Z at the location of 17.70N 78.82W at an alt of (~ 20.61 inHg) 2,842 meters
(~ 9,324 feet) Flt. Level 30 sec. wind - From 53° at 139 knots (From the NE at ~ 159.8 mph)
URNT12 KNHC 200243
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/02:19:30Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
078 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. 107 kt
E. 128 deg 9 nm
F. 224 deg 108 kt
G. 128 deg 009 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3019 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 143 KT NW QUAD 02:25:30 Z
STARS VISIBLE ABOVE IN CENTER
awww.... must be a nice night!!
Take a picture guys!!!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:48 AM |
|
|
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
not sure, but i think they may have dropped two GPS Dropsondes on this pass...?? Checking data now.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:50 AM |
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Im not sure if anyone posted a statement on the storms over S florida today..but they were NOT part of Dean. Deans furthest band so far is over central cuba and that is currently. Lets try not to overdo or scare people in florida who are not weather knowledgable.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:50 AM |
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Looks like the recon info only sorta made it in before the advisory... in the initial section they say pressure is *estimated* at 925, and in the repeat they say minimum central pressure is 924 (don't say estimated). Also, the advisory held the winds at 145mph. While the recon has not found anything higher than that - yet - they likely will before they depart, given the trend.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:53 AM |
|
|
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Somehow we are and aren't in the main forum, depending on how you access the thread.
Edit:
Looks like we need a new main thread. Thread corruption is occurring.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:58 AM |
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Something is linked wrong. If you go to the latest message from the top page you get here. But if you go into the start of the thread, it ends with your message referring to me posting the next to the last vortex message.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:05 AM |
|
Re: FL Storms
|
Looks like the board is redirecting posts to the Disaster Forum instead of the main one?
EDIT: I started to reply to THIS message, and it was linked correctly - but the messages directly above this message are linked to the Disaster forum.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:10 AM |
|
Re: FL Storms
|
I'm a little confused. Someone on here said not too long ago that some of the models had shifted a little further northward but in the 11:00 discussion the NHC said they had shifted further southward. I guess that also means that the ULL won't have any effect on Dean even though it has pretty much stalled. I guess because the ridge is winning out and predicted to become even stronger.
Shawn
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:14 AM |
|
Re: FL Storms
|
I can understand the confusion. The ULL does appear to have stalled but it is apparently far enough away to not influence Dean at all.
It appears that this thread is duplicated in both the NewsTalk forum (main forum) and the Disaster forum.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:21 AM |
|
Re: FL Storms
|
Dean is very simple for a forecast. All the global models agree and the GFDL,FSU SuperEns take this just south of Cozumel.. ( I feel good enough south of there) and into the BOC then somewhere near Tampico Mx. TX chance of getting more then a feeder band is less then 10%. Its been like this for 36hrs now on its MX forecasted path. There is nothing to take this more NW as the ridge will be strong over the SE U.S. and because of this ridge...we might have to look east of the bahamas on Weds-Fri.
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:34 AM |
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Even if the ULL slows or stalls as it appears to be doing. The high pressure is spreading south toward north Florida. This will keep Dean on a due west track regardless of the ULL. That is until Dean exit the Yucatan Peninsula where is possibly could drift northward up the coast toward extreme south Texas.
Quote:Quote:
Well as said much earlier in the day if the ULL stalls out before or around 90-95 West it might bring the track further north, but Im thinking that probably wont happen.
Anything is possible, though. Indeed, I've been looking at the ULL periodically today, and it has at times looked like it was stalling. Dean has obviously continued moving due west, though - but that makes sense because there was some distance between the two systems. Now, however, the inflow into the ULL, so to speak, is very close to the edge of Dean's moisture envelope. Will it be enough to yank Dean northward? The models do not think so, and neither does the NHC. I would put the possibility at something greater than zero, but I don't know how much (not high, at this point, but keep an eye on it).
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: RE: New Vortex Message
|
Some great images of Dean:
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07920.html
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07919.html
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07937.html
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:46 AM |
|
Re: FL Storms
|
It does seem the next couple of days with Dean are pretty cut & dry...straight into Mexico...even though it's never over till it's over this outcome seems certain.
I know alot of diehards elsewhere who are rather dissapointed that most of the anticipation in final destination speculation is gone for them now.
Dean is still the main player but it appears CMC is not the only model in closing off a low from the wave East of the Bahamas. The 10:30 TWO mentioned conditions becoming more favorable for some slow development as well. Time for a "Bear Watch" it seems.
Continuning some of the talk about the winds caused over Fl by the pressure gradient...they certainly were strong & enjoyable early this morning..although I don't know what's worse...just the hot air or the wind whipping it around like a hot fan by afternoon.
Anxiously awaiting the end of hurricane season & relief from the heat.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:56 AM |
|
|
|
RE: Dean's Bands
|
I do beleave that after watching the satalite images of Hurricane Dean and then watching the Sataline images of Miami and the Florida Keys that Dean is definatly responsible for the cooler day we have had hear, as well as the stormy weather. It also appears that as Dean spins counter clockwise, his longest band reaches the tip of South Florida. Please correct me if I am wrong.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 04:14 AM |
|
|
|
Re: RE: Dean's Bands
|
[ New thread - I moved Recon there ]
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 04:18 AM |
|
Re: RE: Dean's Bands
|
I guess in a way you could say Dean was responsible for your weather today but not in the way I think you're getting at.
We have strong Easterly winds now. Also a high pressure ridge has built in..Dean is low pressure...put Fl in the middle. This causes a pressure gradient & increased winds.
If you go to the National Weather Service you can type in your zip code or city name & get a very thorough forecast not only for your immediate area but usually a discussion on features such as waves, troughs, etc...that may be moving in or developing offshore for example that may impact your area for the week.
I have found it very useful not only for my local forecast or when traveling but I also read Ruskin & Melbournes discussions when we have a tropical threat as well. Always good to hear another opinion.
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 04:21 AM |
Post Linkage Problem
|
There is a known problem with post-linkage that we have not yet resolved. The corruption problem happens when a Moderator deletes/moves a post. The move goes okay, but the Forum that the post was moved from will still show it as the 'latest post' - even though it is no longer there. When you click on the post (in the latest post area) it sends you off to the Forum that the post was moved to.
Use the Site Usage Forum to report problems - DO NOT send Mod Alerts for system errors - the Moderators cannot correct this type of error. Until the problem is resolved, using the 'latest post' link on the Forum Listing page may not take you to the correct Forum.
ED