MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 04:09 AM |
Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas
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9PM EDT 20 August 2007 Update
Dean has become this season's first category 5 hurricane within the last 12 hours before projected landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If Dean maintains this intensity until landfall, it will become the first category 5 landfall in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
1PM EDT 20 August 2007 Update
Hurricane Dean may become a category 5 hurricane today as it is in optimal conditions for it to occur, and it's back to a single eyewall structure now.
It should make Landfall in the Yucatan in Mexico just north of Belize, and then reenter the Gulf in the Bay of Campeche before entering Central Mexico, it has time to restrengthen in the Bay of Campeche, potentially back to a major hurricane again before the final landfall, past that it may even enter the Eastern Pacific.
Also, Tropical Cyclone Formation alert issued for 92L which means it may form into a depression within 48 hours or so
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave Northeast of the Caribbean (92L) within the next 48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*-------------]
9AM EDT 20 August 2007 Update
Beyond Dean, a new system is showing signs of formation northeast of the Caribbean. Being officially referred to as "Invest 92L". This system appears headed toward tropical development.
Initial model runs are usually sketchy, but they currently suggest that Florida and the southeastern US may need to pay attention to it.
This system is roughly 1585 miles east southeast of Central Florida, and the center is near 22.5N, 56.0W. Movement is west northwest at 17MPH, and should continue that and potentially trend more westward (based on the sketchy initial model runs), forward speed may increase up to 21-23MPH.
If it were to affect the US, the current thinking is that it would be approaching around Friday or Saturday.
More specifically, Cape Hatteras to Miami should pay attention to the system, at least until we get a better handle on it. Assuming the high weakens it may mean more on the north side of that, if it doesn't then Florida needs to watch more (the latter is the marginally more likely scenario at the moment). All that is speculation at this point, so first off, watch if this system persists and develops, and if it does watch the future track of it.
This location historically is known for storms this time of year, some very infamous storms have started in this general area.
Want to take a guess what this system will do? Go here in the Forecast lounge to speculate and suggest.
Original Update
Hurricane Dean has recently cleared the island of Jamaica, from which disaster reports should begin to trickle in during the overnight hours and into the day on Monday. Next up is the Yucatan Peninsula, as it appears that Dean will pass south of the Cayman Islands.
The eyewall replacement cycles that fortunately held Dean's intensity in check over the past day or two appeared to end earlier this evening according to aircraft reconnaissance, setting the stage for intensification over the energy-rich waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea. More recent reports suggest another eyewall cycle may be imminent, however. Despite that, even tonight as Dean moves away from Jamaica, the central pressure is slowly beginning to fall. The current NHC forecast calls for intensification to a powerful category 5 hurricane within the next 24-36 hours before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula early on Tuesday:
Model guidance is currently tightly clustered on impacts to the central Yucatan and central mainland Mexican coastlines from Dean:
The upper level low currently slowing down in the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to significantly impact the track forecast for Dean. This slowing had been anticipated by the models, which also suggest it to start to move out again during the day on Monday. Unless something drastic changes to alter that, it looks like the United States will stay mostly in the clear from Dean, unfortunately for Mexico.
Stay tuned through the day on Monday and through the week ahead for more on ean.
Event Related Links:
Jamaican Media
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaica Observer (Newspaper)
Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio
Other
Jamaican Webcam recording... Treasure Beach
Jim Williams will be doing a live show on Dean tonight at hurricane city (8PM EDT)
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
{{Radarlink|jua|San Juan, Puerto Rico}}
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Southern Cuba Radar (Has Jamaica partially in range
Cuban Radar Mosaic (flhurricane long term recording of this radar)
Hurricane Watch.net
Microwave imagery of Dean
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Dean|04|4|2007|1|Hurricane Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic)}}
{{StormLinks|92L|92|6|2007|2|92L (Northeast of Caribbean))}}
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 04:21 AM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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We have a new recon.
Looks like another ERC to start fairly soon.
Flight level winds support 125kt / 145mph surface winds. Eyewall is 15NM circular, but we have a double eyewall on the north.
In Microwave, I notice there was some disruption of the convective feeder bands, but the core of the storm is intact. Dean is now entering very warm Caribbean waters with high heat potential, so we can expect recovery from the passage by Jamaica fairly quickly and continued intensification.
-----
991
URNT12 KNHC 200408
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/03:42:50Z
B. 17 deg 30 min N
079 deg 00 min W
C. 700 mb 2467 m
D. 105 kt
E. 226 deg 8 nm
F. 342 deg 104 kt
G. 226 deg 016 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3069 m
J. 15 C/ 3044 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NW QUAD 02:25:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 145 KT N QUAD 03:48:30 Z
MAX SWS 125 KT N QUAD 03:47:00 Z
DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE OUTBOUND N QUAD
----
A few great image links for Dean:
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07920.html
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07919.html
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07937.html
[post moved from end of old, broken thread]
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 05:19 AM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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I fear that Hurricane Dean is gonna turn me into a Devils Advocate here...Those who know me, that is definately not my MO...but I still don't feel 100% on Dean and I have to let my conscience be my guide tonight.
As a man of my own convictions I never waffle…After saying that, I’m sorry to say I’m going to waffle. If I am wrong in the end, I eat my crow medium rare (Trying to lighten the mood here) and I owe apologies to all for being wrong and going against the grain.
The ULL has been a player in my discussion for days now. After many days, I gave up the grey ghost to the models this morning…They all seemed to be getting along very well, but through the day and tonight…The Bam split, the GFDL and HWRF differed, and the GFS and GFS ensemble have done their thing here or there. The gap has widened and I must balk. Tonight, I must digress, but my ULL discussion is still definitely different that it was on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Best to just bullet point this stuff.
-This morning, the ridge was better defined in the Atlantic, with and axis spreading roughly off the South Carolina Coast on Vapor.
-Also this morning, the ULL in the Gulf was around 88W moving west, but it had intensified during the night and also gained better representation.
-In addition, the flow over the Bahamas and Florida between the ULL and the High could be defined as out of the ESE or the SE this morning...since that time, it has veered into a flow from the SE to a hard SSE wind on Water Vapor.
-Initially, my primary basis for Gulf ULL low concerns stemmed from a stall of that ULL. It did not happen. The low moved from88W this morning and reached 92-93W as a better defended system today. Since then, it has not done something not as bad as stalling out, but it has done something else that I see as not good as moving on…It has turned north. All the models…even the latest runs, were based on this ULL moving into southern-middle TX, then getting snagged north into the jet stream. At this time I’ve only got one thing to say…Not gonna happen that way…And that may impart on the mid level ridge the NHC discussed at 11PM…Considering the ULL is also a Mid-level low now
-Mean time, prior to the northern shift of the ULL, Dean moved 3 degrees west in tandem with the ULL that moved 3 degrees west. The storm did not catch up to the ULL as some have speculated.
-Dean is now as close as it ever was to the ULL, maybe and probably closer than it ever was to the SE flow. And more so, the high off the Carolinas did not take full advantage of spreading west in place of the ULL. If it did, the ESE to SE flow over Florida would have shifted west. Instead, the wind flow sharpened, and veered to out of the SE or SSE. This tells me the ULL-Mid level Low over the Gulf expanded and the ridge did not take full advantage of opportunities to fill the gap. The 399mb (HDW-High) and 699mb (HDW-mid) show wind barbs heading from the southeast and SSE on the latest imagery once again tonight over Florida.
-Finally, here in SW Florida, my porch faces east, I actually watched the clouds move NW by NNW tonight as they grew from cloud base…I figured I would be seeing them move a bit more westerly based on the forecast of increasing mid to upper level ridging,
-There are other factors I see tonight, but I can’t bullet forever. Please review the WV links, formulate your own educated opinions…And don’t be amazed if there is at least alight course change by morning. In particular, ALL models had the Gulf ULL moving into Texas and Mexico…All models built more ridging on the east side of the ULL by now too. We are not seeing that now, and this is the first bugaboo hint that there may be a surprise course correction on the horizon. Even if the change is only subtle.
From this mornings post and in the end, the 1% for eastern Gulf is still there (almost feels like 10% now, but I won’t go there.). The 5% for the central Gulf is still there (Similarly, I feel it’s more like 15% now, but it’s just not a good to go there either), and I’d keep the western gulf at 25%.
| BTfromAZ |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 05:21 AM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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I have a question that I hope doesn't seem either ignorant or unconcerned for the damage this storm is doing. I have a home in the Tucson area which at this time of year gets most of its annual rainfall from a "monsoon" flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The southwest has been experiencing severe drought for several years now. The predicted tracks for Dean shown above seem to show the storm ultimately making it into Sonora near Arizona. Does that actually mean we could hope to get significant rainfall from this storm and that it will traverse essentially the entire country of Mexico including some mountainous areas to reach us? Thanks for any views on this.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 05:45 AM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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If Dean does follow the model consensus it will likely spin itself down over old Mexico (mountains can be quite brutal on tropical cyclones there). Leftover moisture and vorticity in the mid-levels would possibly enhance the monsoon. It is almost unheard of to get a truly intact tropical depression in Arizona from -this- direction. Much better odds for that from the east pac (riding up the Gulf of California, or cutting across Baja, and then into the state, etc.)
| oil tracker |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 05:52 AM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Quote:
From this mornings post and in the end, the 1% for eastern Gulf is still there (almost feels like 10% now, but I won’t go there.). The 5% for the central Gulf is still there (Similarly, I feel it’s more like 15% now, but it’s just not a good to go there either), and I’d keep the western gulf at 25%.
After or before Yucatan do you see the turn?
NHC´s just said "MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH". No north component.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 06:00 AM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Dem, I just looked at the latest WV and I could swear I see the ULL now moving to the west. I know you said it was going to the north but I just didn't see it. I could be wrong on this but it looks as though the models were right and the ULL is now starting to make its move west toward Texas and the ridge is building in.
Shawn
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 06:25 AM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Well, it is basically moving due north (Talking about the Gulf ULL)...There is a slight hint of it possibly moving a snudge west of direct north. I am/have been watching of the Gulf Water Vapor...Here is the Link:
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Upper Level Lows work a little different than tropical cyclones...Lots of optical illusions...It is very understandable tofind a center hard to locate, so I see whay you may see it as heading west. However, the Northern most center point was roughly at 26N, 92W at 4:15 UTC (Z). Earlier, the center was farther south at about 25N, 92W at 22:45 utc (Z)...A difference of a about 5 hoursand 30minutes of almost due northward motion...Hope this helps.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 06:56 AM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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It appears that Dean will probably follow in the historic footsteps as such memorable hurricanes as Gilbert & Wilma, and bomb out a bit in the northwestern Caribbean, while traversing extremely high oceanic heat content. Internal structural changes may limit this, both in terms of duration and intensity, but a Category Five Dean on approach to the Yucatan would seem to be just about baked in the cake, now.
At this hour the eye has started clearing out again, while cloud tops have grown ever colder.
In regards to the ULL's heading, I really still see the movement as due west, but with perhaps a teeny-tiny bit of north-south stretching. The most recent TWD tells that NHC does not discern any shift to the north at this time, either. As tricky as ULLs are to read, it's possible that it is preparing to begin shifting north, but a more likely scenario might be that this is nothing more than some early indications of a future shearing out... perhaps.
Ironically, it is this perception of a little bit of digging and stretching that I perceive could potentially impact Dean, as maybe the ULL's reach digs a tiny bit further south than models anticipate at this time. Hopefully sooner than later all will have a better grasp on exactly what that mid/upper low is really doing.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 11:55 AM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Looking at IR, the system sure looks to be trying to clear out the old eyewall. Recon is in the air but not to the storm yet, so it will be a little while before we have some good recon data still. 5am NHC said it was undergoing an ERC, so everything is consistent.
Looking at track, the models are becoming more divergent once the system pases over the Yucatan, and I think part of this is that crossing the Yucatan further south will result in more disruption to the system, and that disruption isn't being modeled the same from model to model.
--RC
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:08 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Well, the ULL is certainly moving west and Dean is as well. The ridge is really building in and this is as straight forward of a path as you will find with a hurricane. As I had mentioned yesterday morning, there is a chance that Dean never sees the water of the BOC...especially if he keeps on a straight west path as he is now.
Shawn
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:08 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Not to digress from Dean, but what do those with a weather mind think about the possible system forming east of the bahamas. I live in S. Fla, and am curious on your thoughts
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:08 PM |
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Gulf ULL
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appears to now curl SW, or at most to only have N/S elongation.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:16 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Quote:
Not to digress from Dean, but what do those with a weather mind think about the possible system forming east of the bahamas. I live in S. Fla, and am curious on your thoughts
NRL has posted invest 92L located at about 24N 55W.
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:28 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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It appears to my untrained eye, that this looks like s somewhat healthy system that wants to form..I am wondering if there is a page that may have any models showing the future of this system, if any future exists. The system I am speaking about is 92L
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 12:53 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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See the main page of this site.
But to the mets, what's up with the 92L model for Skeetobite? Is that a leftover model run from an older storm or something? It's totally in the wrong place (west and south of FL). The SWFMD models are incomplete but at least in the right place.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:10 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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The model links are under each storm on the front page, 92L is what the system northeast of the Caribbean is being called now.
I put an image of some of the models up on the front page for it, in short Florida needs to be looking at it, not sure what will happen yet, still analyzing the system.
Skeetobite is showing the first 92L of the year so far, it should update fairly soon to the new graphic, the SFWMD link and animation is already working.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 01:34 PM |
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Re: Gulf ULL
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The next recon should show us a good indication on if Dean is going to make cat5. Eye does look to be elongating a little n/s so not sure if its just a bit of a wobble or if there's a ERC in the works.
I estimate CAT3 back over water, unsure if there will be much more strengthening than that before he makes landfall again.
I'm sure mexico isn't too happy but lets be happy he's not going to turn the corner into the GOM. A deep n-n/e run up the GOM this time of year would be NASTY.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:05 PM |
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Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas
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The August 20 00Z run of the CMC has a tight but intensifying circulation hitting SE Fla. in about four days. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Seems like most of the other models don't even pick up on a system at all, at least not yet. Still, 92L bears watching for the East Coast.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 02:48 PM |
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Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas
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I updated the main article, but I'm reposting it here too. With more analysis and some input from Ed, here's what looks good so far.
The system (92L) is roughly 1585 miles east southeast of Central Florida, and the center is near 22.5N, 56.0W. Movement is west northwest at 17MPH, and should continue that and potentially trend more westward (based on the sketchy initial model runs), forward speed may increase up to 21-23MPH.
If it were to affect the US, the current thinking is that it would be approaching around Friday or Saturday.
| weather999 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:07 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Quote:
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN
IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT
THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.
From the latest discussion--the single eyewall is apparent in at the latest microwave imagery, and very apparent in AVN, and especially Dvorak (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg).
I'm with Psyber... next recon will probably give us Cat 5, or staying at a Cat 4 until landfall in the Yucatan.
I found it interesting that the GFDL has (finally) forecasted Dean to not reach Cat V status, and at the same time, NHC are "expecting" Dean to reach 5.
| Scott3294 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:17 PM |
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Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas
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Quote:
I updated the main article, but I'm reposting it here too. With more analysis and some input from Ed, here's what looks good so far.
The system (92L) is roughly 2260 miles east southeast of Central Florida, and the center is near 22.5N, 56.0W. Movement is west northwest at 17MPH, and should continue that and potentially trend more westward (based on the sketchy initial model runs), forward speed may increase up to 21-23MPH.
If it were to affect the US, the current thinking is that it would be approaching around Friday or Saturday.
Not to pick nits...but I am measuring about 1450 NM from Savannah. I think 2260 miles may be a a bad measurement for 56w/22.5N.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:21 PM |
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Recon
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Recon is airborne from Keesler AFB as of 45 minutes ago.
My guess is that Dean is as close to Keesler as he is to St Croix USVI. That also allows the crews in St Croix to rest before possibly flying an INVEST on the system mentioned above.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:26 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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From the recon it looks like Franklin thinks it's a forgone conclusion that Dean is going CAT5. It's not surprising considering how little is in front of him along with a nice warm soup of SST's.
My biggest concern is that any more intensity now will pay dividends for when Dean enters the southern GOM...there are alot of people in the Veracruz area that could be affected by Dean 2.0. All evidence points him north of Mexico City...lets hope he stays that way. There's 18-20million people in Mexico City...alot of who are in substandard housing. Even a weak Cat 2 could cause monstrous damage.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:36 PM |
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New System
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From 26.7N/ 80 W, just south of West Palm Beach, and just east of the US Highway 98/ US Highway 1 intersection, to the 22.5N/ 56.0W coordinate estimates above.
Great circle, as the crow flies, is 1330 nm at 95degrees true.
Checked the CMC 0815_00Z model at sea level for the 120 hour forecast. Which was last night at 8PM EDT.
The model had Dean a bit to the south and east of where he actually was. Close enough!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...&hour=120hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...&hour=000hr
| Jorge Nakazawa |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 03:41 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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[My biggest concern is that any more intensity now will pay dividends for when Dean enters the southern GOM...there are alot of people in the Veracruz area that could be affected by Dean 2.0. All evidence points him north of Mexico City...lets hope he stays that way. There's 18-20million people in Mexico City...alot of who are in substandard housing. Even a weak Cat 2 could cause monstrous damage.
Actually, Mexico City is immune to direct hits by hurricanes due to its being located in a central plateau (2400 mts above sea level) and surrounded by high mountains. Almost all we get from hurricanes is a lot of rain, which in itself may cause severe troubles, but nowhere as much as a hurricane will cause. Frankly, we are more concerned with the rural communities in the Yucatan peninsula and Veracruz. There are a lot of poor communities there, and the geography of the coast with the proximity of the mountains make for very nasty flash flood conditions.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 04:14 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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i don't think nws has put a system off of florida into the forecast period beyond some weather.. watching to see if they do. Either way... waiting to see if gfdl comes on. I've heard shear is not a big problem in a day or so but at the moment that area is messy, congested and not what I would call favorable. But.. we'll see.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 05:40 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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I'm looking at the latest models I can see. It seems that the CMC still has something crossing central Florida later in the week, but not the "storm" it showed for the last few runs. The GFS & UKMET still don't show anything.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 05:51 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Quote:
I'm looking at the latest models I can see. It seems that the CMC still has something crossing central Florida later in the week, but not the "storm" it showed for the last few runs. The GFS & UKMET still don't show anything.
the 1-2-3 model shows a fairly sizable area in the eastern carribean to watch as well in the next 48 hours. There isn't much there yet to forcast with so it's still very early to be placing anything striking anywhere until a real component shows up with some decent steering.
As for Dean:
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.
nothing really new to report, slight strengthening per forcast...I think that Honduras is affecting the inflow a little bit right now
| LisaC |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 06:04 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Its still a cat 4 at the 2 pm advisory. Dean looks very impressive on the Sat image. Looks like landfall just north of the board with Belize.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 06:31 PM |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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Still on forecasted path of landfall near 19N and still I feel no threat to TX with 2nd landfall as a Cat 2 near Tampico MX. I dont have much to say but this is a simple forecast with all the global models saying the same thing for days now.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 07:24 PM |
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Re: New System
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WTNT02 KNGU 201600Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201600Z AUG 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED
BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED.
HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211600Z.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/current_storms/al922007.tcf
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 07:25 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
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hmm... new XTRP puts 92L in my neck of the woods in 120 hrs (western Calhoun County in Fla. Panhandle)... lol... I know its just the current heading/speed/extrapolation... really XTRP is going to jump around alot until we get a closed low out of 92L. This Invest will need watching over the coming days...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 07:29 PM |
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Re: New System
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I've gotta wonder about how fast 92L will develop, if it does at all. Looking at current water vapor imagery, Dean is feeding an upper low (TUTT cell) currently over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The associated outflow jet is being enhanced by the temperature gradient associated with the warm outflow from Dean, resulting in an increase in vorticity (spin) and an enhancement to the mass sink that is that upper low. I see 92L on the reasonably favorable NE side of that, but I also see it about to get flung west between this upper low and the subtropical ridge to its north. Thinking out loud, I have to wonder if the models are not handling the evolution of the TUTT cell correctly, similar to what happened with Philippe in 2005 (sheared apart by a Rita-enhanced upper low in the face of continual strengthening prognostications). I defer to the experts at NHC on this one, but I don't see anything out there that catches my eye for sudden development.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 07:38 PM |
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Re: New System
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NCEP mentioned the GEM and DGEX both bring 92L toward the FL Peninsula in the next 5 days.
The current Area Forecast Discussions from Jacksonville, Melbourne and Miami also mention the system as a Tropical Wave.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 07:48 PM |
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Re: New System
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92L---I just grabbed a piece of this text, hopefully not completely out of context. NWS HPC doesn't delve into intensity forecasts as much as overall synoptics, I think.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE MEAN WAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE 00Z/20 GEM
GLOBAL AND 06Z/20 DGEX BOTH SUPPORT BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
Entire text can be found here and is time sensitive:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 08:10 PM |
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Re: New System
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Looks like Dean will be a Cat 5 at 5:00 PM winds are 156.5 MPH..
| neospaceblue |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 08:15 PM |
.gif)
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Dean vortex
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000
URNT12 KNHC 201945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/192320Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
083 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2399 M
D. 120 KTS
E. 060 DEG 15 NM
F. 151 DEG 151 KTS
G. 060 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 9 C/ 3037 M
J. 19 C/ 3043 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.03/1 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 15
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 1918Z
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 08:33 PM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Quote:
000
H. 918 MB
Impressive in a morbid fascination way...We're looking at possibly < 160mph winds at landfall considering he's moving along pretty fast and probably won't lose much inflow before landfall. I was hoping for a little more southern track that put him slightly over hondouras but he's walking right over top of it and is going to maintain maxium time over deep warm sst's. If there's any GOOD part to a this, its that he's not exactly sitting in one place battering anything for too long.
Unless my eyes deceive me, the N-W part of the eyewall is a little more ragged then the iron curtain it was all afternoon so possibly some good news coming before landfall...
EDIT: Ummm am I misreading or did Franklin use a probable bogus speed in his calculations in the 5pm discussion?
I wanted to bring people's attention (not sure if its been mentioned yet) to the National Hurricane Center's RSS feed. Alot of people aren't into them yet but they are great for specific on the run push email updates: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml
| DougBaker |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 09:57 PM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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918mb, but not a cat 5? any reason the winds have not increased as the preassure has gone down.
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 10:13 PM |
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Re: New System 92L
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The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch has joined with and/or continued sounding the warning bell that NRL- Monterey started about 92L. TAFB
Does anyone have a feel for how often the TAFB or the Navy gives these warnings only to have nothing come of it (1 in 10), or do they wait until they feel that it is 50/50.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 10:15 PM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Sometimes it takes a while for the winds to catch up with pressure falls. Especially if the pressure has been dropping rapidly.
In the past several hours the pressure has dropped 6mb, which is considered rapid intensification. The winds will catch up shortly.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 10:36 PM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Recon now reports pressure down to 916mb.
Also indicated is a concentric eyewall again.
Winds haven't increased.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 11:02 PM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Quote:
Recon now reports pressure down to 916mb.
Also indicated is a concentric eyewall again.
Winds haven't increased.
What is the mean pressure (whatever the term is) for the NW Caribbean right now? The relative pressure is really what determines storm strength.
Edit: I just looked at the latest IR loop. Dean continues to amaze me, and I find it *extremely* difficult to believe - recon reports not withstanding - that there are no sustain winds within this monster that are > 170, let alone 150.
Edit2: Dean is now as strong as a Cat 4 'cane can be: "near 155mph" per the 8pm advisory.
Edit3: Pressure also down, to 915mb, according to the 8pm advisory.
It's almost guaranteed to be Cat 5 at 11pm, in my opinion.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 11:56 PM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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NHC has the storm at 155mph now; only 1 mph off of Category 5. Recon found 155kt winds at flight level. No concentric eyewalls found this time. Pressure is back up to 918mb.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:09 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Quote:
NHC has the storm at 155mph now; only 1 mph off of Category 5. Recon found 155kt winds at flight level. No concentric eyewalls found this time. Pressure is back up to 918mb.
Are they flying at a different altitude than they've been flying? 155 * .9 (the deduction they've been using for Dean) = 139.5kts at the surface, which is 160.425mph according to my math. If I do an 80% reduction I only get 142mph at the surface (and 85% reduction gives 151mph).
Edit: Where are you seeing 918mb pressure? NHC link still shows 915, with the 155kt flight level winds.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:25 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Quote:
155kt at flight level = 155*1.15=178.25mph*.9=155.025. It's a 90% reduction from flight level.
I did the math three times, both ways - Using Windows Calculator
178.25 * .9 = 160.425
172.25 * .9 = 155.025, though. That would be 150kt flight level winds.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:28 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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I'm not doing 90% reduction Hugh. I'm taking what the NHC said was the max surface winds in the 8pm advisory after the recon data showing the 155kt FL winds was out. I guess they think it's more like 85% reduction.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:36 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Hugh, these are the 3 reasons why they kept it at 150mph:
1. COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE PREVENTING THE RECEIPT OF MOST DATA FROM
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON.
2. EARLIER IN THE FLIGHT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 123 KT WAS OBSERVED.
3. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT AT 18Z.
Essentially they chose not to extrapolate.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:40 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Well looks like Dean is goin to be retired.. First Hurricane of 2007 is now a Cat. 5.
URNT12 KNHC 210029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/2346Z
B. 18 DEG 17 MIN N
085 DEG 00 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2359 M
D. 121 KTS
E. 318 DEG 9 NM
F. 047 DEG 156 KTS
G. 318 DEG 08 NM
H. 914 MB
I. 9 C/ 3047 M
J. 21 C/ 3053 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02/2 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 30
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NW QUAD 2358Z
**AF303, seemed like they had communication problems the other day** the HDOB is coming and going... ***
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:41 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:50 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Quote:
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
Unbelievable. And he's intensifiying. Makes you wonder what he would have topped out at if the Yukitan Penninsula wasn't in the way. :/ It's not surprising...talk about perfect conditions for a perfect storm.
Cat3 back over water intensifying to a strong Cat4 before landfall?
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:53 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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93L at 10N 40W?
| anomaly18 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:56 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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167mph?
Storm DEAN: Observed By Air Force #303
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 162KT (186.3mph 300.0km/h) In NW Quadrant At 2358Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 145.8KT (167.7mph 270.0km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 18° 17' N 085° 00' W (18.3°N 85.0°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2359m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 121KT (139.15MPH 224.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 9nm (10.35miles) From Center At Bearing 318°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 156KT (179.4mph 288.9km/h) From 047°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 318°
Minimum pressure: 914mb (26.99in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 16nm (18.4 mi 29.6km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 12:59 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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I think there just going with Cat 5 at 160mph and pressure of 914mb.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 01:08 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Just watched some NASA news on the shuttle... it is schedule to land at KSC around luch time tomorrow... 1 chance (201 Burn) would almost bring it south to north along Florida... 2 try about 2 hrs later (202 Burn)... would bring it over the Yucatan... which they est. the shuttle would pass over Dean at an Alt. of 192,000ft or about 35 miles above the surface.... Unfortunate the shuttle would be in a right to left back, and the crew would not be able to see Dean below... Man that would of be a wild ride, if they had to take 2nd try to land at KSC. (of course they would be way above Dean!)
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/shuttle/shuttlemissions/sts118/landing.html
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 01:10 AM |
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Dean's numbers
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Hurricane Dean has now made the top 10 of All-Time based on lowest pressures ever in the Atlantic Ocean.
Also, the last category 5 in the Atlantic to hit land as a cat. 5 was Hurricane Andrew back 15 years ago. Unfortunately, we are witnessing history once again in the tropics.
| weather999 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 01:24 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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Well. After many thoughts through the past few days of "Dean will become Cat 5 next advisory," Dean's finally reached the not-so-illusive mark (during the past few years) of Cat V--pray that all that will be well in Mexico/Belize.
Also, predictions on intensity @ landfall? I'll go with 155 or up..
Finally, any chance that Dean could emerge from western mexico and retain a circulation and then re-develop in the E. Pacific?
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 01:25 AM |
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Re: Dean's numbers
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not seeing the "white donut" on Dean yet, as we did with the CAT 5's of 2005. NASA
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 01:34 AM |
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where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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I am just curious why there were plenty of links posted for Jamaica but none for Yucatan or Mexico.
Could you please put some up?
Many thanks!
| neospaceblue |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 01:44 AM |
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Dean Statistics
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So far Dean is the 7th Category 5 since 2003 in the Atlantic and the 30th recorded Category 5 in the Atlantic.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 01:44 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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not very populated in that area.
Weather Conditions at Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCM.html
Weather Conditions at Cozumel Mexico
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCZ.html
Weather Conditions at Chichen-Itza
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCT.html
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 01:56 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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I have some questions but they are related to 92l and not Dean right now hope thats ok. Well to me and my eyes 92l looks to be on life support right now so is that normal for a wave/invest to look like that and does it have to adjust to it's environment and get used to feeding off the heat from the water and adjust to building storms and become tropical or does it only apply to the waves that start off over land like on Africa for example then move off into the ATL. Thanks for your help anyone who can answer these for me.
| txcntrygrl |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 02:21 AM |
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Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas
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I am new here and have a question.
I have read numerous posts and they refer to something called ULL. I am not 100% sure what that is and how it can affect Dean's path. Also is there a way to see this ULL on a given map?
ULL is short for "upper level low." It can affect a tropical system's path by changing the winds at upper levels; these winds are, to a large degree, the features that steer tropical systems. You can see these on water vapor satellite imagery, available from the NHC's satellite page (among other places). --Clark
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 02:21 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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Waves often fluctuate till they get going (if they do). Plus I think the sheer in that area is high right now so any system will have a hard time getting going under those conditions.
Not all the models are picking up on this. I think one (Canadian model) turned this into a Tropical Storm and pushed it through central Florida exiting the west coast. Hard to say when it hasn't blown up that much.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 02:21 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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Cancun radar: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
Closest radar in Mexico, and I haven't found any online radar from Belize or Honduras. If anyone knows of one, please post so we can all watch.
| Jorge Nakazawa |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 02:22 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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This is the link for the radar stations operated by the Mexican Meteorological Service. Cancun Radar Image . So far all it seems to be detecting is the outer bands of Dean. Given that Dean is expected to make landfall more to the south, it may be that the central structure will pass at the limit or out of the range of the radar.
PS It seems random chaos has posted this one minute before me.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 03:12 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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Unfortunately, based on the improving satellite presentation, it appears Dean is going to at least hold its own, or possibly come in as an intensifying cat 5 to the Yucatan. Hopefully everyone in the affected areas have heeded the warnings as much as possible and have gotten out of harm's way. Given the relatively rapid forward motion of the storm, the area affected by the northern eyewall in particular will suffer a very grave blow.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 03:28 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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Neither of those radar sites works for me (one gives a page not found, one just does not load).
Looking at the satellite presentation, I must agree with Thunderbird12, this is going to be a major, major disaster, barring an entirely unexpected and extremely unlikely weakening. I still believe that the wind estimates may be a bit low, perhaps, but that Dean will likely intensify at least a little more prior to landfall. I keep thinking back to some of the models that forecasted what is happening, intensity-wise at least - those earlier models forecasted a Cat 5 hurricane in the NW Caribbean - they were off on the eventual location back then, but they were not far off intensity-wise, it appears (some forecasted 190, and it's probably going to be 165-175, which is not that far off).
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 03:29 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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Pretty poor job of weather forecasting by the government of Belize.
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/
"Tuesday: Wind: S-SE 40-50kt in the north, decreasing."
| Jorge Nakazawa |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 03:37 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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I agree, in the IR loop the eye seems to become more simetrical and well defined with each image. Also, the latest images from cancun radar is starting to show part of what I believe to be the eyewall.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
(image edited to link due to size. Site appears to be offline/ overloaded. ~danielw)
Hugh, I've posted the link as an image. Hope you can see it.
Jorge G. Nakazawa
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 03:38 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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At least they advise small crafts to remain in port.
Seriously, though... I suspect the residents know the weather report without having to rely on that website. If they don't, God help them.
Edit: Yes, I was also able to get a Cancun radar site up, different than the ones posted, which shows that same image I think.
It's significant that the NHC 11pm discussion specifically mentions that they were unable to obtain the data from the aircraft in real time - again. So the 160mph winds at the 11pm advisory are considered a conservative estimate based upon data that was available. In another words - the monster is probably even stronger than reported. Given this, I would not be surprised if winds were upped at 2am, assuming Dean remains offshore at the time (don't know when it's actually going to cross the coast).
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 03:39 AM |
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Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links?
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Dean has MANY similarities to Janet from 1955!
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at195510.asp
interesting read on Hurricane Janet. same part of the world.
http://corozal.com/history/janet/index
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 03:41 AM |
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Re: Dean vortex
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I notice Dean is pretty well covered here...so I really don't have much to add outside of the fact that my points of late last night/ very early thismorning did not pan out....To the relief of the US and with great regret to our Mexican neighbors, it's a bad situation abd I wish them well. Otherwise, I learned some tropical weather lessons (Somethe hard way) via Hurricane Dean, but in the end, what make this site great is that we all share ideas and we all DO learn from one another.
Not as much talk about 92L tonight for very obvious reasons. From my end, it is a little tough to forecast anything...including development with out a bit more organization. I give it a 30-40% shot now...which is down from this morning, where I was starting to feel that something might be a bit better organized by now. That said, I am only basing that on the current organization, and the model support, which is basically showing a wave passage over Florida on the GFS and UKMet from this...and the CMC seems to have backed off of this somewhat.
Outside of this, I'll share what I do see.
On the Vapor loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html ), it does look like 92L will remain in a reatively moist environment...As moisture is spreading westward along with 92L, which is north of the ULL. Otherwise, 92Lmay still be too close to the ULL that is over the Puerto Rico...and it may stay too close for too long...Not sure yet.
On the shortwave loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html ) , any circulation at the mid levels and/or possible vorticity at the lower levels may be further to the west than Iinitially thought...I'd pegthat area to be around 25N, 65W.
Only time will tell if this will become Felix as it approaches from the east.
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 03:46 AM |
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Dean
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Just checking in and I must agree. Dean appears to be intensifying even more.
Classic extreme Hurricane on all of the satellite shots.
This storm even has 'hot towers' of cloud tops higher than the Eye over the Northern Yucatan Peninsula at 0245Z. The green areas are higher than the Eye!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/img/2007233_0245ft.jpg
Lightning in the western and northern feeder bands. Some of the heaviest lightning I've seen since Katrina-2005.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/img/2007233_0245rgb.jpg
Here's a really good link to local storm reports frfom the Caribbean Area.
http://www.stormcarib.com/
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 03:51 AM |
|
Re: Dean
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Will there be another recon into Dean before landfall in the morning? NHC has seemed very reluctant to up the winds on this monster without recon verification, and they're encountered communication problems with the recon flights on top of that (gee, you think flying an airplane into a 160+ mph hurricane is going to cause disruption in communications?)
TWC now indicating winds could be 165, and they're trying to unwind (that's the term they used) the data after the communication problems. Given the conditions... it's hard to comprehend, really, what the area is going to look like on Wednesday.
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 04:06 AM |
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Recon
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Recon is inbound at this time.. I'll have to check the reporting time.
Comms so far appear to be normal.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 04:11 AM |
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Re: Recon
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HDOB messages indicate that they are about half way to the storm, or about 520 miles away from the eye right now.
(I'm just dropping HDOB coords into Google Earth to see where they are)
| Jorge Nakazawa |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 04:13 AM |
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Re: Dean
|
According to the 1100 PM discussion at NHC , another recon flight is planned before landfall.
So far, Mexican TV has been showing reports from several cities in the expected lanfall area, mainly showing the preparations at the shelthers and at the emergency services and giving instructions to the people about where to go. I think that we will have to wait until early morning for the TV to show images and info on the effects of Dean in Yucatan.
Jorge G. Nakazawa
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 04:38 AM |
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Re: Dean
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Eye looks perfectly circular and clear on the latest IR and the cloud tops continue to cool. Funktop color scheme now has green showing up in the eyewall.
I think recon will find a strengthened Dean.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 05:04 AM |
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Re: Dean
|
Could 92L be forming off of Dean? Thats what it looks like to me
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 05:05 AM |
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|
Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas
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Links
Eyewall coming into focus now
On Cancun's Radar
TWC IR, with lightning overlay
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 05:50 AM |
|
Re: Dean
|
Hi there,
92L is likely not forming off of Dean...If anything, the Ridge over Dean and the energy coming from the outflow of Dean is likely strengthing the ULL the is currently south of Puerto Rico. That upper level low is providing strong easterly winds over 92L right now. On the last Water Vapor analysis, I noticed a lot of 30kt wind barbs moving over 92L. 92L is also moving at a decent clip, but these ULL winds are a bit to strong right now.
Over 92L, there is a squeeze playgoingon between the ULL south of PR and the ridge to the WNW of 92L that is helping to steer Dean. That is probably helping to amplify the Upper Level Winds a bit too.
Something to potentially watch for...Dean will weaken over the Yucatan, then weaken significantly over mainland Mexico in 36 hours...At that time, the surface energy being transferred into the Upper Levels of Dean (The ridge over him) will weaken also. As a result, the risdge over dean will likely weaken too. Downstream domino effects will probably mean the ULL south of Puerto Rico will weaken also. If so, the shear will be on the decrease, and that is probably art of why the models...as well as the 10:30PM NHC TWO call for more favorable conditions over 92L in the coming days...
As for tonight...some pop-up T-storms around 92L, but nothing significant...92L has quite a ways to go before being a "Tropical Depression Candidate" right now...Worth watching though as things may change in those respects during the coming days.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 06:05 AM |
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oh man...
|
055330 1833N 08651W 6971 02336 9067 +211 +134 073014 018 020 003 03
906.7 MB if not lower. Horrible time for the bottom to fall out.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 06:08 AM |
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Re: Recon
|
Recon's made it there -- extrapolated pressure of 905mb from the pass with many estimates in the 905-907mb range. No idea why NHC went with 911mb at 2am...your guess is as good as mine. I await a vortex message and dropsonde ob for more details.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 06:18 AM |
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Re: oh man...
|
We will be out of satellite blackout on the Goes East pretty soon. I think we will see our first image around 2:45 (there abouts before or after). We are gonna be seeing a storm that is very close and quickly bearing down on the coast shortly. The pressure drop, if correct, is an extremely unfortunate sign that Dean is stronger that what we saw before the Goes East Satellite blackout.
FYI...in case you did not know, the Goes satellite blacks out at this time of night to concerve power while the solar panels are not receiving sunlight (Call it an earth eclipse on the satellite).
| neospaceblue |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 06:36 AM |
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Re: oh man...
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909 mb, that's nice................*waits a couple seconds*......................HOLY CRAP! 909 MB! THIS THING IS STRONGER THAN IVAN!
| Valandil |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 09:16 AM |
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Re: Dean
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...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
There you have it, at 165mph and 906mbar. I'm hoping for the best for all those how have to endure this storm....
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 09:24 AM |
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Re: Dean
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God help the people of Mexico, this is going to be just total destruction. I think the winds might have been 170 plus at landfall given some of the things I am seeing. I just went to Costa Maya in February and visited some of the Ancient Ruins. Glad I did, cause they likely won't be there soon.
"REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 330 AM CDT. THIS
LOCATION IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO"
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 09:24 AM |
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Re: Dean
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I pray that they can keep people out of harms way in the Yukatan. Sometimes we forget when watching these things that thousands will loose their homes and even worse many will be killed. A Cat 5 hitting land is almost total destruction.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 21 2007 11:01 AM |
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Re: Dean
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Final report from landfall:
(I'm just quoting stuff from the 5am discussion)
Wind:
* A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST NORTH OF THE EYE.
* MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124 KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT.
* A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING.
BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT.
Presure
A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE.
* THE 906 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE...
* AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO.
* DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF 1992.
Also, the last recon reported (08:14:00Z):
"CONTINUOUS LIGHTING AND SEVERE TURBULENCE SOUTH EYEWALL"
-----
Wind: If 178kt was measured, even with a 10% step down (and at 150 feet, 10% may be too large), that is 160kts (184mph), or 15kts faster than the surface value they used.
The 145kt value works out to 165mph.