MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 22 2007 10:59 AM
Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Dean seems to be reorganizing more as it nears the mainland coastline in Mexico, for it's second landfall, likely as a category 2 Hurricane. It should enter Central Mexico and then rapidly weaken over the Mountains of Central Mexico. Somewhere between Veracruz and Tuxpan..



The wave over the Bahamas is looking a little better this morning, but still moving too quick and unorganized to do much to Florida other than bring just a little rain to South Florida. It still is worth watching when the system gets into the Gulf.

Chances for Tropical Development of Wave Northeast of the Caribbean (92L) within the next 48 hours
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*----------------]



{{StormLinks|Dean|04|4|2007|1|Hurricane Dean}}
{{StormLinks|92L|92|6|2007|2|92L (Wave over Bahamas))}}


allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 22 2007 03:17 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Dean looks like he wants to be a major storm again.. looking at the convection build up near the eye.. havn't seen that since he first became a Hurricane.. I mean the black looking convection on the IR satellite.. I give it a medium chance at becoming a major at landfall but the NHC is right, the window of that happening is rapidly closing.. So I guess we'll see what happens, I doubt this will be a Pacific storm named Gil.

*haha guess I was wrong at it making landfall as a major as it appears Dean has made it's last and final landfall in Mexico just now as a Category 2 Hurricane*


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 22 2007 03:36 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

I've follwed Dean as the storm has formed and made its way to it's demise in Mexico.
I would like to thank all the METS and weather savvy folks who have post here during
tropical events.
While I can look at the data and draw my conclusions, it's nice to get everyones input
and see what thinking goes into the posted comments.

I find it very interesting, at least for me that the NHC, while still a most worthy source
of "official" information, has become less and less porminant in the public's eye.
If you turn on the news, including CNN,FOX, NBC and others, you will note that they
all have their own METS who very very rarely if ever cut to the NHC for a live shot as
was so common just a few short years ago. My, how things have changed in the
way we receive our hurricane news. I do see a lot of anchors on the news channels
making wrong statements about the storms. Their lack of understanding and knowlege
does show from time to time.

Anyway, bye bye Dean and I'm turning my eye Eastward to see what will come our way
around Labor Day.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 22 2007 03:43 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

The NHC did an amazingly good job with Dean, and pretty much stuck to the westerly forecast, and in this case it was a good call, in fact the NHC has had a great record so far the past several years and this continues it.

The wave train off Africa looks pretty impressive right now, too.


allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 22 2007 04:10 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Yes, they did an incredible job with Dean, the track never even wobble much after Dean hit the carribean.. they should be honored.. in my opinion, this is the first storm they did an excellent job on since Wilma of 2005. Hopefully there good work will continue throught the year and beyond!

Ed G
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 22 2007 04:14 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Mike, would you please post a link to the African wave train you are speaking of?

thanx


cchsweatherman
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 22 2007 04:18 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

The NHC were the most accurate they have ever been on forecasting a storm with Dean. There was near pin-point precision and accuracy in terms of the forecast track all the way for a one week period. They did an amazing job and I have to praise them for their undue diligence in getting this forecast track right on the money. In my opinion, the NHC is better than TWC and all local news stations combined in their conservative, yet aggressive style of forecasting which should give everyone prone to a landfall tropical system some peace in mind.

It does appear as if the wave train has been revived now, so it could be any day now when we have our next developing tropical system. The wave approaching Florida will provide some needed rainfall and maybe some gusty winds. Besides that, thank God the tropics are quiet. We don't need another Dean.

I just want to close my comment out by saying that I wish the best of luck to all those directly impacted by the fury of Hurricane Dean. Now they will need our help to recover. Please do what you can to assist not only those struck by Hurricane Dean, but the Peruvian Earthquake that killed thousands of undeserving people.


Addicted2Cane
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 22 2007 04:41 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Quote:

Mike, would you please post a link to the African wave train you are speaking of?

thanx




Here's a link,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html


rammerjammer
(Registered User)
Wed Aug 22 2007 05:22 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Has anyone noticed NHC's satellite page has an invest back up on 92L?

LisaC
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 22 2007 05:33 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

I agree that the NHC did a fab job with Dean. I was impressed how accurate the 5 day cones were.

Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 22 2007 05:39 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Yes, I noticed. Does anyone think this could develop if it gets into the Gulf?

bigbelly
(Registered User)
Wed Aug 22 2007 07:20 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Quote:

Mike, would you please post a link to the African wave train you are speaking of?

thanx




Here is a link of the African wave train - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 22 2007 07:31 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

The African Wave rain is looking like the express???? I live in Florida, hope the Bermuda high goes to Greenland if any of these start cooking.

B_from_NC
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 22 2007 07:32 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Quote:

Has anyone noticed NHC's satellite page has an invest back up on 92L?




Yes, but its interesting that they mention in the 2:00 discussion the low spinning just east of the Bahamas versus the one that I also see around 27.5N, 77.0W....

Anyone else see this????


Tak
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 22 2007 09:50 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Lots of Saharan dust/dry air north of it too.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 22 2007 09:51 PM
dean out, quiet in

a couple more advisories on dean and that should be that. the 03z advisory ought to be the last. dean is most likely too weak for a pacific side reflection to have much of a chance.
away east the upper trough enhanced showers around a weak surface trough continue as 92L. the low level vortmax is now a tad east of eleuthra island in the bahamas, nudging west a tad slower than the upper features around it. there still doesn't seem to be enough low level convergence to force it in the face of the shear aloft. like the nhc says, probably just an enhancement of showers... unless something dramatic happens.
nothing of note to the east of that. itcz is active but nothing of note is on it. emerging wave looks ok but models are skittish with it. some globals show a cut off northeast of bermuda around the weekend into next week. that appears to have as much a chance as anything in the basin for the meanwhile, barring any major deviation from the model consensus.
nhc played the guidance split down the middle with dean into the caribbean, until it starting grouping tight on the left... in which case they went wholeheartedly with it. that was the right move. i kept thinking the upper evolution was too quick and that dean would snag a bit on the upper low ahead of it, but they stayed perfectly in tandem and the hurricane barely passed 20N during it's lifetime. there was climatological precedent for that turn of events. like always i'm a bit too ready to buy into the worse scenarios... dean was strong as hell but it didn't directly hit any place where there was a great deal to break.
HF 2151z22august


UKCloudgazer
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 22 2007 10:47 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Yes, I have been watching the little spinner at about 023N 051W. Nothing showing up on the experimental forecasts though.

LisaC
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Aug 23 2007 12:28 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Here in Ft. Lauderdale the local weather folks have been saying a tropical wave should be affecting us since yesterday. Well this is the best tropical ever because its sunny and breezy.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Aug 23 2007 09:40 PM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Thought everyone would find this interesting from the Pacific TWO:

"A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ATLANTIC HURRICANE DEAN...IS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN
THE VICINITY OF MANZANILLO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO REGENERATE INTO A
NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WOULD NOT RETAIN THE NAME DEAN SINCE
DEAN DID NOT MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. "


h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Aug 24 2007 02:14 AM
Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall

Nice! The itcz looks squashed tonight. Almost all convection decreased rapidly today. Hope this continues. There is a decent wave coming off Africa, but the last several have fallen apart.

charlottefl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Aug 24 2007 04:52 AM
High Pressure

A lot of time we think of a strong high pressure ridge as a bad thing. Storms make their way closer
to our neck of the woods. Who would have ever though the ridges over the Atlantic would be so strong
as to basically squash convection along the ITCZ. Anyone have any model data to suggest how long
these ridges are gonna remain this strong?


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Aug 24 2007 11:08 AM
little guy

that small low that wandered up to the bahamas mid week is now east of north florida, very weak, but present. there's finally a bit of convection on it, but of course this is one of those too little/too late things. since there's nothing else to watch....
gfs has returned to its conspicuous silence. it's been pretty good at bird-dogging systems that did exist and ignoring ones that never turned up this year, so the fact that it sees nothing carries weight. the fact that it's going through two weeks leading up to the peak of the season and nothing is showing up is VERY conspicuous. stuff like that is possible, but it's incredibly rare to go through the last week of august and first of september with nothing happening. hard to expect reality to follow what the models have.
HF 1107z24august


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Aug 24 2007 05:04 PM
Re: little guy

Noticed that the insert on this page is on FL EC radar. Someone thinking there's some potential there, or just that it's the only thing at all out there? The Atlantic is amazingly quiet...we'd probably see more action in Jan.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Aug 24 2007 05:35 PM
Re: little guy

I agree it's quiet now, but remember things cam bubble up very fast this time of year. We had both Dean and Erin within the same week.

flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 25 2007 01:30 AM
Re: little guy

Is that rotation I see northwest of Tampa in the Gulf of Mexico? Is that associated with a low pressure system? Or is that the old 92L wave?

ChessieStorm
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Aug 25 2007 02:45 AM
Re: little guy

What is in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida coast is an ULL moving slowly west or northwest. Throughout the day here on Tampa Radar there's been a wave spinning over the state that set off a lot of thunderstorms throughout the pennisula and is expected to cause the same tomorrow.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 25 2007 03:39 AM
Re: little guy

Well Hank, i think the gfs has been turned back on? Looks like it and a few other globals are showing something mid-week coming off of Africa... Like the wave train my throw out another strong wave or two. Will be an interesting weekend to see how the Globals respond and show what comes of Africa and we will again see if the GFS and others are on to something, like they were with Dean. Just would be crazy if the next one forms and down the road becomes another strong system, but it is possible... water temps are very warm in the western atlantic and closer to the US. Also will post a link in a few days to Hurricane Hunter AF Tech. who flew into Dennis a few times and took some pretty cool pictures.


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