MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 25 2007 12:31 PM |
Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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Additions - Sunday 11AM
Other areas noted this morning include a couple of small and marginally active tropical waves near 13N 35W and 10N 42W. Also a couple of active waves near 12N 76W and 21N 96.7W. The wave at 12N 76W, northwest of the Columbian shore has a small chance for some additional development over the next couple of days. The wave in the Bay of Campeche does have a weak circulation and it has been almost stationary for the past 6 hours - but it is also very close to the Mexican coast. Otherwise it remains uncommonly quiet in the basin - but thats a 'positive' at this time of year.
ED
Original Post
There are no disturbances ready to develop into something right now, so, thankfully, this is a quiet weekend and at least first part of the week coming up.
The only long shots are a wave around 48 west which is still too far south, and not really active enough to have a shot to develop anytime soon. That area has persisted for a while, however, but it has shear around it and the circulation is very weak.
Beyond that is a few model projections which may be hinting at something in the East Atlantic coming off Africa in 3 or 4 days time. If they are phantom waves or not, remains to be seen.
In short, looks like to be a quiet first part of the week coming up.
{{StormLinks|94L|94|6|2007|1|94L (East Atlantic Wave))}}
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 25 2007 04:29 PM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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It's nice to see so much blue out there during late August.
One slightly warm core, very weak low - remnant of a frontal low - spinning about harmlessly near 37N 71W mentioned in this morning's TWO.. the feeble wave near 48 w, and a few weak trofs here or there.. that's pretty much it.
A few of the models, including some of the better ones, have suggested some features perking up by mid to late next week, perhaps most notably a stealthy feature a few runs turn up in the southern Caribbean, and one or two decent 850-925 vorts off Africa, with something down at the surface. Might be some stuff to watch in the Caribbean, SW GOM. It's August, so these are believable, if for no other reason than... it's late August.
Dean sputtered out over the mountains of Mexico, but helped propel a beneficial MCS into the southwest.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 25 2007 05:51 PM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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Agree... Not much to watch right now. The Florida Straits are interesting today though from a wave passage standpoint. Pressures pretty high there though (high 29's-30 inches in the Keys) and no significant development expected on my end...Just something to give me an excuse to be a weather watcher during the quiet time post Dean.
Gulf Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
Miami NWS Long Range Radar (Key West Radar has sufferred a transmitter Failure and may be down until tomorrow): http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| GlenJohnson |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 25 2007 07:13 PM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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Off-topic post deleted.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 25 2007 11:28 PM |
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nothing doing
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something pretty out in the north atlantic--out southeast of newfoundland is a mostly occluded, rather strong low that is cut off from the westerlies. it's north of 40n and well away from support ssts, but must have a decent cold pool aloft since it has a hybrid warm-core look. decent convective ring and eye type feature.. it's a fairly deep low. it's not a tropical entity, though.
wave passing the cv islands has the best chance of any recently. well short of the sure-shot dean was, but it isn't a moon shot either. none of the models like it that much. these essential features have already been addressed by other posters.
stuff in the western atlantic/gulf/carib is all kinda weak and disorganized. don't put much stock in the boc thing, and the pattern won't do anything but push it in right off. anything in the sw carib will shortly be ashore as well. we haven't hit the meat of the season yet, not by far.
HF 2328z25august
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 26 2007 07:15 AM |
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Re: nothing doing
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Weak surface low spinning in the southwest GOM looks slightly better organized overnight, but it will be most helpful to see the first couple of daylight frames. While in its current state this feature would be of little concern just about anywhere else, but to those in Texas, even an unclassified but realistically something very nearly like a weak tropical depression, is unwelcome. Pressures are still not substantially low, and were actually a fair bit lower yesterday afternoon when a surface circulation was readily apparent, but convection has been increasing back about the approximate center during the late overnight.
Anyway, just about anywhere else in the ocean or along the coast I wouldn't find reason to bring up such a feature, unless it was already Invest tagged and the topic of general discussion. But, again, given its proximity to already water-logged Texas, it seems only appropriate to give it some mention in the main thread. (Apparently NHC has locked on to this item as well, and given it some spotlighting in the 10:30 PM 8/25 TWO. However, the development of a significant tropical cyclone is not expected).
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 26 2007 04:57 PM |
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Re: nothing doing
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Take a look at the pictures before and after the Eye wall of Dean past over Costa Maya. I was there last year on a cruise what a shame... Dave
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/mexico.shtml
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 26 2007 05:20 PM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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The NAVY site NRL now has 93L up on their site. This is the one in the BOC that the NHC mentioned in their TWO that is suppose to move into Mexico. Still maybe something to watch.
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danielw
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| Sun Aug 26 2007 05:41 PM |
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Quiet ?
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Things may be 'quiet' in general. But there are currently three areas to watch.
1-GOM just south of New Orleans. Weak surface and upper levels Low moving west. Associated with a tropical wave.
2-SW GOM/ W Bay of Campeche. Near surface circulation just offshore the area where Hurricane Dean made landfall last week.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
3-Middle Caribbean circulation centered near 11.4N/ 76.0W. Vortice swirls can be seen in the latest visible 4 frame satellite loop.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
I have yet to check the areas east of 76 W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/img/2007238_1715wv.jpg
Weak wave near 12N/ 55W
Large amplitude wave near 12N/ 31W.
ULL near 23N/ 58W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg
Notice the frontal boundary moving into the S US. Near an Austin, TX to Tupelo,MS line... dry air!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 26 2007 05:56 PM |
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Re: Quiet ?
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I don't see the surface low south of New Orleans, but it might just be that it's weak and undetectable by my eyes.
93L (The Bay of Campeche system) is intriguing, but will in all likelihood move ashore before developing.
The
The middle Caribbean circulation is very far to the south, but definately bears watching. I'd say just looking at it that it has the best chance ofthese three systems of developing, although I wouldn't put its chances any higher than 50/50 at this point, unless it were to move north in the NW Caribbean, in which case all bets are off considering what Dean did in that area.
Edit: Now I see the circulation south of New Orleans, but it does not look very tropical.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 26 2007 06:12 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Quiet ?
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I didn't give the New Orleans Low much credit until it dumped an inch of rain here yesterday. It is nearly onshore and I'm with you on the development.
Vortice swirl can be seen here... black hole just west of the longitude line.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES15152007238BoaDiG.jpg ( or see attachment above)
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES154520072388BfZQq.jpg
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
Coordinates for the center of the sat shot are 339 and 339. Scroll down to enter the coordinates.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 26 2007 06:31 PM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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upcoming 94L?
Perhaps the disturbed area in the Carribean is the area that the NOGAPS has been and still is trying to develop.. I give it alot of credit, it's done well but the storm looks a bit more north to me then what the NOGAPS has it, not that far south.. It's got a good circulation and if it keeps up, we will be talking about 2 invests, 93L and 94L. Things are gonna get active according to the GFS, after it's excellency on Dean, I believe it!
North Atlantic low
The low in the North Atlantic may be a hybrid low.. but they have a right not to call it a sub-tropical storm, it's not near land, it's barely affecting anyone and it would be a waste of a name.. though, I wouldn't be surprised if they called it subtropical in post analysis. SSTs are in the 70s and 60s and lets not forget how Vince in 2005 formed.. So it's a possibility but very low in this case. Looks great on Satellite!
GFS model already insists that this is at least subtropical in nature..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07082612/13.html
UKMET is hinting at subtropical chararistics
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07082606/8.html
Same appears with the NOGAPS as the UKMET is showing
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07082606/8.html
Amazingly, the CMC is just calling it a cold core low lol
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07082612/8.html
Interesting low!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/vis-l.jpg
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 26 2007 08:05 PM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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The lows in the Gulf will likely be competing with each other, in addition to being too close to land to develop. At least, that's my take on those. The Bay of Campeche system does look impressive on the visible loop, though.
Looking at the wide view of the Atlantic basin, it's certainly possible that 94L could come out of the Caribbean system, but I don't think development is less than a couple of days away, at the very least.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 27 2007 02:02 AM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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A bit off topic.
The remnants of Hurricane Dean have been visiting the Los Angeles, CA area today. WIth numerous Flood Watches and Warnings.
Remains of Dean's vortex can be seen in the WV imagery below. (may be time sensitive)
The elongated cyclonic circulation near the southern end of California.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 27 2007 05:23 AM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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hmm... i think the quite time in the atlantic is about to change. Some of the long range globals now for the third day have hinted at a good set of tropical waves coming off of Africa. And after watching the sats over Africa, indeed the convection in the last few days is much stronger as the showers and storms make there way to the west/atlantic. We will see how the globals do, by Wed. into Thurs. we could have something in the far atlantic. I would also watch to see if the tropical wave between 30w-35w 12n-15n does anything, i think the good old CMC was trying to flare up a low with this in a few days. And last, in the Carb. i would keep my eye on that tropical wave, which has gotten mention in the last two TWO, seems like there was a good mid-upper lever spinn down there this afternoon. Don't see anything at the surface, yet... Pressures still kinda high. Wave is moving right along to the west at a good rate of speed. Seems like this might be a interesting week to watch in the tropics!
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 27 2007 12:07 PM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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It looks like the system in the Bay of Campeche went in on the coast of Mexico near where Dean did. This is an insane year for them. Comments about the left over convection in the gulf would be appreciated.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 27 2007 03:33 PM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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11:30 TWO is picking up the CV wave:
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 27 2007 04:44 PM |
Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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I don't give this wave a whole lot of confidence yet as only the CMC is developing. Remember that this model has been crying wolf all summer; however, maps from CIMSS show low wind shear and virtually no SAL in the area. Who knows, this wave may be worth watching in a day or so.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 27 2007 10:35 PM |
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wave/else
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the wave near 40w is secluded from the itcz and persistent with the convection. whatever turning is at the low levels is elongated and not well defined. it stands out but has only a little going for it for now... just like the TWO says, slow development if any. the parameters outlined by others are pretty much spot on, but the wave is being underwhelming at the moment.
some of the globals are spinning up a post-frontal low off the mid-atlantic. no real stock in that. some are also lowering the pressures near the ne gulf or off the georgia coast... this general area seems to be turning into a stash for frontal remains just lately and has had a reasonable amount of convective activity around. nothing insidious, though.
thing in the gulf improved much too slowly to get classified, but as it moved ashore was finally starting to develop. another 12 hr and it would probably have been at least a depression. but, that's all she wrote.
the caribbean thing has a similar sort of lot in life. it's not cranking up all that fast. given a couple of days it would be a tropical storm or something. it's going ashore in nicaragua before that.
nothing else of note. eastpac is quiet but starting to show signs of life. the season so far has shown a tendency to follow the pacific-then-atlantic development pattern, if not with great enthusiasm. most models are showing the eastpac popping a couple off.. given the time of year it's probably a good bet that the atlantic will follow in the not too distant future. it's hard for the atlantic to stay quiet more than a week this time of year.
HF 2235z27august
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 28 2007 12:59 PM |
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Re: wave/else
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94L issued for Central Atlantic system.
WeatherUnderground
NRL
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 28 2007 01:27 PM |
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Re: wave/else
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94L well I can see why they put an invest on that system. Certainly has some circulation with a west component. Mottled convection though. While, once these things start to gather convection changes can occur relatively rapidly, I am not sure that will happen to this one. Dean had a well defined circulation at this stage and was able to withstand the forward speed issue and develop. The circulation in this is ill defined and the speed issue will impede development, IMO. I would not expect anything until it gets into the E. Carribean and slows down and gets better moisture support.
| cchsweatherman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 28 2007 01:35 PM |
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Invest 94L
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Good morning to you all! So, now we have Invest 94L. Based upon the latest satellite imagery, there is clear cyclonic turning and now is developing some deep convection over the center. I do agree that it does need better moisture support and will not rapidly develop like Dean, but nonetheless, it will develop in my opinion. We will need to wait another day to really get a handle on this system and its future. But for right now, it is something to monitor.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 28 2007 06:01 PM |
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Re: Invest 94L
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well... the wave in the carb. is getting better organized, BUT it looks like its going to run into central america. Interesting a few models, like Hank mentioned are trying to flare up a "frontal" type low of the SE coast in a few days, will see what happens... With 94L... i think if it can beat the Dry air to the NE of it, it may have a chance... when it gets closer to the islands... I don't think this is going north of the islands right now, like the Europ. model is forecasting.... i think this is another wave that will enter the carb. down in a few days. Also a few models are still trying to throw off some waves from Africa that may be something to watch.
Vis Shot
| Storm Surfer |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 28 2007 06:38 PM |
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Re: Invest 94L
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Two lows are spinning just off the coast , the larger of the two is a couple hundred miles east of the Outter banks and the other is near the Georgia South Carolina border . The larger low is in some pretty dry air but the smaller has much more convection. Which one will win out?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 28 2007 06:43 PM |
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Re: Invest 94L
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Wilmington, NC, afternoon discussion on the disturbance off the coast:
LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE MOVEMENTS OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. MOST OF THE MODELS DO WANT TO
SPIN-UP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROUGH-LINE...BUT ALL
DIFFER ON POSITION AND STRENGTH. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT IF
ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD BE OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL
DAYS. INITIALLY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE IN SUBSIDENCE-ZONE ON
BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY GET DRAWN BACK TO
W AHEAD OF DEVELOPING E COAST TROUGH BY END OF PERIOD.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 28 2007 07:45 PM |
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Re: Invest 94L
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well, i think they might put a little more stock in 94L in the 5:30 TWO....
1902 UTC - DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070828 1800 UTC
This will need watching more over the next few days... looks like most models are taking it into the carb.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 28 2007 08:11 PM |
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Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August
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Things are starting to get perky again. Obviously 94L is at the forefront of most discussions, as well it should - it has the benefits of a respectable low level cyclonic turning, favorable latitude, some convection already present... and time. 93L probably ran out of time (ocean) before it could get officially logged into 2007.
Also worth noting, the surface wave and associated mid-level low which is crossing through and just north of Nicaragua today. It appears that the mid-level circulation is not running amok inland, and that if anything, there has been some slight pull more to the northwest, than due west over the last 18 hours or so, which appears to have allowed some subtle curved banding to develop today, most evident near 17N 85W, and to either side of that down to about 15N, and with some inflow from the SE all the way down to 10N. Despite being so close to and/or partially overland, just a little more development here could warrant an invest tag, as well.
One final note, there appears to be a good bit of SAL mixing in from east of about 55W and extending all the way from the ITCZ to roughly 20N (even beyond this, but that seems to be containing the especially healthy amounts of it). Could act to hold back 94L a bit longer. If 94L stays too weak and too far south it will clearly run itself into South America with no further development in this basin.