MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 09 2007 05:14 PM |
(Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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9:15 AM EDT 11 September Update
92L hit a wall of dry air that we missed, 90L won't get organized. And 91L still may develop over the next few days.
It is the historical peak of season so it's still worth watching.
8:20 AM EDT 10 September Update
92L (The system northeast of the Caribbean) fell apart last night as it just failed to persist convection, and it lacked a lot of low level activity and convergence.
Oddly enough there is convection, but well to the southwest of where the "center" was. It's safe to consider 92L a non issue, thankfullty, unless this new pulse of convection keeps going.
91L looks like it still may form within the next day or two, and 90L is just holding on. Gabrielle is moving away from the Mid Atlantic states, but has weakened to a depression.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Gabrielle made landfall at 11:45 on Cape Lookout in North Carolina. Much of the rainfall remains offshore as the storm is expected to head out to the northeast and away from the mainland.
September 10th is the statistical peak of hurricane season, and the activity out there now would seem to verify that:
90L is a system in the southern Gulf, conditions and shear are not favorable at all for this system, and development really isn't expected as it moves westward.
90L Forecast Lounge Here) .
90L Development chances within next 48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----*---------------]
91L in the Central Atlantic is moving westward and conditions may improve there in the next few days and we'll watch for development. Currently this probably has the best chance of all the "invests" for development.
91L Forecast Lounge (Discuss Here)
91L Development chances within next 48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*---------]
Most interesting to us in Florida is 92L, which is northeast of the Caribbean. It is in a somewhat favorable area and may form into a depression within a day or so.
92L is near 17.3N 57.5W, and so far, it has become much better organized in the past 24 hours.
The current movement is to the west at 13 MPH. This system will be moving away from a zone of westerly shear into an area of almost no wind shear, so the prospect of development is high. A west northwest track is anticipated. Additional development is possible and residents of the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. should closely monitor the development of this potentially troublesome system. The only saving grace that may deflect this is the front currently over the middle section of the US. More to come on this system later.
Forecast Lounge for 92L here
92L Development chances within next 48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*------------]
More can be found on Ed Dunham's blog post below "Wave Mongering Part II"
We're recording Mark Sudduth's (Hurricane Track.com) webcam tower on Hatteras along with the Morehead city radar for Gabrielle.
You can see these At this link.
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|mhx|Morehead City, NC}}
{{radarlink|ltx|Wimington, NC}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Gabrielle|07|7|2007|3|Gabrielle}}
{{StormLinks|90L|90|8|2007|1|90L (Gulf System)}}
{{StormLinks|91L|91|9|2007|2|91L (Central Atlantic)}}
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 09 2007 05:26 PM |
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Re: Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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Well, its going to be a busy week!!! Looking at vis on Gabrielle... its about to make second landfall on the mainland of NC... it crossed the sounds and should come ashore again near swanquater, and head up towards Elizabeth City, then out to the NE into the atlantic. Shear seems to have gotten the system, late yesterday evening, the mid-upp level, could never get back over the center of the low level. No covection never was able to wrapp around the center... 92L is looking a little better this afternoon.
**1:45pm cdt... Cleary, based on sat and level II radar data... Gabrielle has made the second landfall along NC.. mainland.... Vis floater *** i don't think NHC will make an adv., but will mention it in the 5pm adv pkg.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 09 2007 09:10 PM |
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suspcious but slow
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gabrielle has thundered ashore as a monstrous 50-mph tropical storm, crossing the sound and peninsula areas west of the outer banks. for some reason it left all of its convection at morehead city. there isn't much that can be said for it... thanks to an upper low diving off and sitting on it for most of the week, the storm never got well organized and developed very slowly. i maybe earned a cookie with a side of crow on that one.
it's september 9th, so naturally the season is trying to put on it's peak-time show. like most are saying, 91L has the best chances to develop in the long term, due to location and organization. it should do so slowly, probably not becoming a named system until it gets a bit past 40w. the islands need to watch it for late week, as it may be a maturing system by then.
of more immediate concern, but less certainty are the gulf invest 90L and 92L northeast of the leeward islands. 90L gets a good grade for persistence, but a bad one on execution. the upper winds over the gulf aren't helping, but even a weak system could cause a lot of trouble in texas due to it having something akin to a summer monsoon season. it's chances are weak, but it won't have to do much.
92L has some unpleasant early guidance taking it to the east coast of florida, and that sort of track would likely verify with ridging to the north strengthening. it isn't overtly developing as of yet, but has shown a good lengthy convective burst and some tendency to develop outflow aloft--the synoptic pattern will favor it if it starts to develop, so it's worthy of concern, if not immediately threatening.
odd first-half count on the season. five tropcial storms and two category five hurricanes. beam me up, mr scott.
HF 2110z09september
| TampaBayHurricaneChaser |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 09 2007 11:05 PM |
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Re: suspcious but slow
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The following post is Not an Expert Opinion,
but it presents a superficial analysis of some of the
synoptics.
After hours of extensive research into the synoptics, I think
I have a better idea what may happen:
1. With the ridge building, we will see a WNW
motion towards the Bahamas.
2. 2 troughs are forecasting to dig into
the Southeast by Friday, the first on Tuesday.
In 2-3 days, 92L will feel the influence
of these troughs, and depending on the
strength of the ridge, may recurve
while close to florida's east coast and head
up to the carolinas.
3. Some moisture the next 2-3 days over florida,
but after that, with 90L moving west, and
92L making a close call with the coast, the weather
will be dry or wet depending on where
92L decides to recurve.
4. If the ridge wins out, I see a track
into Southeast florida. If the trough wins out,
I see impacts on North Carolina.
5. It appears that many have provided
evidence of a strengthening ridge, in that case
the threat to florida's southeast coast
may increase, unless a trough pushes
92L away.
6. The environment is looking very favorable
over the bahamas, so some rapid intensification is
likely, once a depression gets going.
7. The current decline in convection is due to diurnal
minimum. It WILL refire. The same thing happened
last night. Therefore 92L is not dead.
After reading HankFrank's post, I will lean towards
the ridge solution for now.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 01:12 AM |
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Re: suspcious but slow
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heh... 92L kinda quit tonight. worries can stay at whisper volume for now, unless it starts acting up again. it has a really long way to go, if it even decides to go that way.
91L looks like a storm in 2-3 days. 90L is persistent, too. we'll have action this week regardless of whether 92L is the cause.
HF 0112z10september
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 01:16 AM |
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Re: suspcious but slow
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Quote:
92L has some unpleasant early guidance taking it to the east coast of florida, and that sort of track would likely verify with ridging to the north strengthening. it isn't overtly developing as of yet, but has shown a good lengthy convective burst and some tendency to develop outflow aloft--the synoptic pattern will favor it if it starts to develop, so it's worthy of concern, if not immediately threatening.
odd first-half count on the season. five tropcial storms and two category five hurricanes. beam me up, mr scott.
HF 2110z09september
I am a bit mystified at 92L this evening... Amazing deterioration has taken place since 3pm; yet despite the now complete absence of convection (there is 0!) there remains a fairly tight vortex signature by satellite alone. This may be a mid-level circulation, however, one that did not get a chance to come down to the surface because the convection spontaneously and rather inexplicably evaporated.
There may be some dry air contamination but the water vapor imagery shows that the column colocated with 92L is actually moist; so it is not really clear whether this is even ingesting outside the moist domain of the interior.
SAL is not a factor at this time, either.
The streamline analysis at 850mb level suggests some modest convergence, while the streamline analysis at 200mb level shows a strong divergence:
850: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg
200: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg
...These two factors should be generally favorable when in tandem. (convergence/divergence couplet in the 850mb and 200mb levels respectively is an initially favorable atmospheric circulation pattern for TC genesis)
Oceanic heat content is sufficiently present.
Not sure why this thing suddenly stopped convection
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 02:10 AM |
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Re: suspcious but slow
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Quote:
Since no one will say it...
DYNO GEL !!! :-)
Just a few tons should of done it. 92L looked like it was gonna go, and then....
TBC
Just in the last frame, however, some suggestion of new convection is forming west of the preceived center. May not amount to much, but then again...got to start somewhere.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html
| punkyg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 02:41 AM |
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91L getting better organized
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(Chat Room post deleted.)
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 02:58 AM |
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Re: suspcious but slow
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Yeah, I think 92L has the makings of what -could- *rapidly* reorganize into a player, for the reasons mentioned above (erm, less the dyno-gel.. I think that idea has been shown to be "prehistoric" these days. Sticky subject, anyway).
Much like Tip above, I was just about mystified by the rapid seeming evaporation of convection, but 92L does seem to be at the apex of an active area which rolled off Africa a few days ago, and somewhat suspect that it is competing with several of these TC seedlings embedded within this subtle gyre for the right stuff. Perhaps some easterly shear got involved at just the wrong time, as well. (All guesses).
Looking at the entire stretch of the Tropical & Subtropical Atlantic it is really hard to argue against at least one or two more named systems forming this week. I've also been eyeballing the large deeply-layered non-tropical low way north for another extra to sub to tropical transition. This time of year it's entirely possible to see that happen. Several more impressive waves are also set to roll off Africa.
Gabrielle didn't look a whole lot better than 96L of a few days ago, really. Highly sheared and lots of dry air, but when it comes down to it, it seems likely that NHC will probably log Gabby's peak intensity before landfall at 65MPH in the historical record based on a recon finding of 55 knots in the SE quad Sunday morning, and plenty of ground-truthing from area ships, buoys, etc. to support that. Up to a foot of rain has already fallen under that convective burst just offshore. Too bad more of it couldn't come ashore and help quench the region's thirst. Lopsided tropical cyclone, but noteworthy. 96 probably peaked at around 45 knots. Maybe gets a post-season bump. At least a good second look, I would bet.
La Nina appears to be baked in the cake. As has been mentioned elsewhere, these can tend to draw out the length of an Atlantic season. Given that we are about to cross the mid-point with at least seven names, to extrapolate that out to 14 by November 30 is really easy to do, especially considering how the east Pac appears to be in the process of shutting down a bit in the face of cooler SSTs and general subsidence.
If you had told me at the start of 2007 that we would be about to turn the clock on September 10 with five storms, but also 2 cat 5s, I would have asked what you were smokin'. Weeiird.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 10:36 AM |
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Re: Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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I do not know if the following exists: It is the peak of hurricane season and we have a very nice curve. This to me is not a very good indicator of what on average the United States can expect during a season. A more interesting figure to me by day of year is % of Hurricanes that actually hit the United States and the number on average that hit the US by day of the year. To me this says something about the guiding conditions that either favor or disfavor hurricanes toward the US as time progresses.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 02:34 PM |
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Re: Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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I see peoples point on bashing 92L due to the lack of convection but, it does appear on the last few IR images, the convection (blob) to the south is sort of slowly rejoining the little swirl to its north. The reason why it hasn't developed is because in that part of the Atlntic is a downward motion on the MJO pulse.. once it gets more west, it should enter the upward motion and should get going. A track to Florida sounds reasonable at this point.. most models don't recongize this but may I remind you that most of teh models never recongized Felix when it was an invest.. so far in my opinion, the models are doing horrible this year with the exception of Dean. We'll have to see if this rejoining force continues with 92L, it may be entering the upward motion.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 03:03 PM |
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90L and 92L Removed
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 04:21 PM |
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What was 92L...
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html
The disturbance isn't done yet.
Take a close look at 15-20N / 60-65W
The "dough" is still rising and will soon be able to go into the oven.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 05:12 PM |
| Attachment |
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92L and GOM
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92L- the system NE of the Leeward Islands yesterday fizzled out.
However... the mid level IR vortice signature is still present and the main convection is now over the Northern Leeward Islands.
The latest satellite imagery is showing high thin cirrus over the Northern Leeward Islands. Indicating No appreciable wind shear at this time. The outflow 'fingers' also would indicate high pressure over or near to the system leading to a more favorable area for possible intensification.
Whether this system is named, numbered or the like. It is still important to keep a frequent check on it.
That said, watch both the convective area and the Mid Level Vortice. As they appear to have split and these often will spin down to the surface at a later time... and closer to the SE U.S.
Reference TD10 of 2005. Split and part of the TD10 signature became Katrina. While this scenario is not likely. Prior systems have been dropped from NHC and NRLMY sites only to be reposted later.
90L GOM
Present satellite imagery indicate a possible Near-to-Surface Low forming in the Middle/ Western Gulf of Mexico. (see attachment)
Centered near 25N/ 91W.
System appears to be elongated from the NE to the SW.
Current surface analysis would indicate a postion closer to 25N/ 92W.
http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/gulfplot.php
Lowest surface pressures are in the Western GOM and present wind speeds are under 18 knots with max gusts at 23 knots.
91L Area east of the Lesser Antilles.
As of 10AM EDT Monday. NHC has posted a possible NOAA Research mission into this wave on the 13th at 00Z or 8PM EDT on the 12th.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 05:58 PM |
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Re: 92L and GOM
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From Henry Margusity's block at AccWeather...does he know what he's talking about? He was hyping Gabby big time, so his recent tropical predictions have been off mark:
We are heading toward a change in the overall weather pattern, one that might even put a damper on the tropical season for the U.S. The mean trough position as per the GFS will end up in the Eastern part of the country which means a series of cold front will head southeast. Parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast could be facing the first frosts the next two weeks as the cool air masses come on down. It also means that any tropical systems will be blocked by the strong jet from heading to the East and Southeast. I guess one could say that leaves the door open for Texas for any tropical systems, but then again, it would have to be a Gulf of Mexico development on the tail end of ending front for that to occur.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 06:16 PM |
Re: 92L and GOM
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html
Seems like a definite twist at 16N, 62W.
Thoughts? Is this 92 reborn?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 07:07 PM |
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Re: 92L and GOM
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TX will have no chance of tropical development as systems that break off from fronts generally will head N and NE.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 07:40 PM |
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Re: 92L and GOM
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For what it's worth, the GFDL's most recent run picks up a storm to be NE of PR by this weekend:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 08:03 PM |
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Re: 92L and GOM
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yeah i saw.. and bends it back later
but it moves very slow... is that possible to move that slow?
just have to wait and see.. right now everything out there is being pulled or sheared a bit to the north
that big upper level low in the north atlantic is creating not the best environment for the peak of the season weak out there
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 08:51 PM |
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Re: 92L and GOM
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Interesting remarks in the AFD from NOAA Lake Charles, LA:
"THERE IS SOME DEFINITE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH OF CAMERON. CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WHICH IS THE GENERAL DIRECTION THE WAVE
IS HEADED...ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FORECASTING THIS TO CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS...AND GIVEN THE WAVES SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS...IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD
TAKE PLACE...THOUGH IT WOULD BE A SLOW PROCESS."
I check this product several times daily, including the past few days, and this is the first mention of the system in the GOM.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 09:07 PM |
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Re: 92L and GOM
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Do you have the link to the site you are referring to?
Thanks!
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 09:17 PM |
Re: 92L and GOM
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Note to moderators: normally I would send a PM for this kinda reply, but an unregistered user asked. Sorry.
Here is the link to the 10:35 AM Monday Area Forecast Discussion. Now, this link is time-sensitive and actually a new discussion is out, but here is the morning one: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLCH&version=1&max=61. The part I copied is in the second paragraph.
P.S. This just in,
"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE [GULF] SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD." ~ NHC 5:30 PM EDT TWO
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 11:48 PM |
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Re: 92L and GOM
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gabrielle is departing, maybe strengthening slightly.. but what little worry it had to offer has come and gone.
90L has some definite turning with it. it has had weak/broad cyclonic motion for days, but now seems to have focused it a bit more east/southeast of brownsville. what is out there is moving slowly westward... if anything develops it would be caught sort of in weak steering and it's hard to say where exactly a system would go. early on a northeastward motion would make sense with the shortwave passing by presently, but afterwards a quick pulse of ridging could easily block it, and keep it offshore. i get the idea that it's starting to develop based on presentation.
91L will probably beat the others to be the next system. most of the early guidance takes it generally westward... the gfdl and hwrf move it nw. the dynamic models are probably right until the thing develops.. then it's usually something in-between. that huge wheelhouse ridge from last month doesn't seem to be together anymore, so i doubt it's another straight-west type system in the works.
92L has the smallest chances. the convection popped back up today, south of yesterday's fierce burst. synoptic conditions aren't wrong for something to develop there, but there isn't much of a place to start in terms of a surface feature. the bursts may amount to nothing or they may help get something started. it looks like this disturbance will be in a favorable location, with regional scale pressure falls, later in the week as it nears florida. assuming it hasn't done anything prior to this, there may be some superior conditons for something to get started. the way things are going that is pure speculation at this point.
probably will have something classifyable by late tomorrow, almost surely something on wednesday. this time of year it's unusual for things to remain quiet for very long... by the time we're finally rid of gabrielle something should be there to take it's place.
HF 2348z10september
| weather999 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 03:45 PM |
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Re: 92L and GOM
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Looks like 91L is trying to spin up, but thunderstorms and convection are limited... If the well-defined but large circulation persists and we start to see some colder cloud tops develop, a TD could form as early as overnight.. but I'd agree with HF that tomorrow night, we'll have something close to advisory status, whether it's 90L, 91L, or even longshot 92L.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 04:04 PM |
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90 And 92L Removed Monday 9-10-07
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Quote:
Looks like 91L is trying to spin up, but thunderstorms and convection are limited... If the well-defined but large circulation persists and we start to see some colder cloud tops develop, a TD could form as early as overnight.. but I'd agree with HF that tomorrow night, we'll have something close to advisory status, whether it's 90L, 91L, or even longshot 92L.
Below is the U.S. Navy link showing Gabrielle and 91L as they removed the 90L & 92L Invests:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 04:20 PM |
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Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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91L looks better today then it did yesterday. It looked like scattered convection yesterday, today, it manages a Tropical Depression structure... all it needs is more convection, which it looks like it is poping up a burst near the center. I expect formation to a TD either late tonight or tommorrow. Other than that, the GOM bears watching, a strong cold front drapes north of the Carribean blocking any fish storms.. which means 91L is likely to get very close to the USA, but it could recurve out to sea after slamming the bahamasand just before reaching Florida. Way too early to tell but if you count the strong fronts coming in now, the Carolinas, northward are safe.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 06:56 PM |
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Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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Interesting developments today
90L is back up on the Floaters, and local area NWSFDs are now tending to incorporate mention of a real possibility that this low begins deepening along the Texas coast over the course of the next 3 days or so. The "cold" front is about to stall or wash out, might re-fire a bit, but unlikely. Winds right along the Texas coast area already generally out of the north, cutting off all the fuel supply to keep the front from stalling and/or washing out - possibly - to meld with the coastal low during the week. Models are nibbling at this solution, in general, with the GFS & NAM doing a bit of a flip-flop dance, a few others taking a few bites, as well. Vivian over at TWC expressing their viewpoint, suggesting the possibility of TD development, as well.
A Tropical Depression in North Carolina would be welcome news, but in Texas, this is more rain that the state no longer "needs."
91L firing some deeper convective bursts around an apparent tightening LLC today. Think all agree that this is the one that has the best long-term odds of the 90-91-92 trio. Like real estate, but in addition to "Location" it's got "Time" "Time" Time."
| punkyg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 07:36 PM |
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Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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On another site i go to they say that 91L's MLC is dissapating and that the LLC is now starting to be covered with convection. do you believe this is true?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 07:38 PM |
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Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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I think 91 is far from a tropical depression but defintely a tropical disturbance. It may have a center, it may have two... even the models don't seem to start it out at the same starting gate. As it gets closer the recon will go in and see what is what.. for now, it's on wave watch..
Gulf... 50/50 maybe... something is there.
But...at peak of the season, we have no coordinates being issued. Go figure on that one.
down the road we might have big trouble with 91 as most models show a high digging in and pushing it west towards land ...and yet.. have seen some forecasted plots that keep it low
Going to be an interesting one to track for NHC if it develops. And, it's big so size makes a difference in storms and what they are capable of doing, etc..
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 08:28 PM |
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Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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Well, whatever comes of the Gulf system, depression or no depression, Texas does not need anymore rain. 91L is the one to watch though.
Something might happen there. (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics pretty much sums it up though.
| punkyg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 09:27 PM |
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Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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I really don't think 91L will come to Texas.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 09:38 PM |
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Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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It's soo early to call any landfall, we do know it will at the least come close to the USA due to a cold front that is blocking any storms for recurving north until it reaches the Bahamas. 92L is getting better organized now if and IF is the keyword here, I am not wishcasting as I was horribly pointed out for earlier, now IF the convection can get more symetrical and bigger, we could have a TD by 11 p.m. tonight. I like the model guidance so far, it really shows how the big Atlantic low really takes 91L north, then pushes it west along the cold front. I do know this will reach the Bahamas, but it could THEN recurve as it should be under the weak end of the front and due to *possible* stronger fronts coming down later in the days to come. Still about 10 days away and lots of time to watch it.. it will be an interesting week and weekend worth watching
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 09:59 PM |
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Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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90L is the one that will bring more rain to Texas (something Texas does not need).
No telling what 91L will do for sure at this point. It has to develop first.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 10:05 PM |
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Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics
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90L has risen from the dead... lol, it's back on the navy site
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 11 2007 10:13 PM |
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now and then
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down to two invests.. 92L doesn't really exist any more, though if you extrapolate the track of it's wave it should be in an area of synoptically forced-pressure falls off the east coast late week. it would be something different, but may be a focal point of sorts.
90L off texas refuses to organize. sure, you can track a coherent disturbance and low level rotation back to last week; the convection flares and reflares, but it never takes the next step. several of the globals track it but none do much more with it. possible it will move up to the coast, turn northeast, get blocked and forced southwest later. it may linger longer, but if past development trends are any hint, it won't matter. now, it is going to rain some in coastal texas...
91L is the 'real' story of the day. modeling is mostly taking it northwest, then more westward as the western atlantic becomes a bastion of ridging, with a weakness just east of florida. the system appears to be grudgingly developing... so if the early modeling is any hint, this could be one of those systems that the worries the east coast next week. still on the early side... can't buy into guidance like that just yet.
got a hunch we may have more to fester both near cuba and behind 91L later in the week. that's just what the globals are suggesting, anyhow.
hmmm... september 11th six years ago, we had erin and felix active, and gabrielle forming the the gulf. this year, we have gabrielle bowing out. it isn't for what was going on in the tropics that this date stands out in our minds, though...
HF 2213z11september
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 12 2007 12:52 AM |
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Re: now and then
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I do believe the NHC wrote off Gabrielle a bit prematurely, based upon current IR/AVN imagery. It's no threat to land anymore, but is potentially a threat to north Atlantic shipping interests (the Canadian maritimes, and even the mainland Canadian Atlantic coast). The satellite signature looks to me like a decent TROPICAL storm, not an extratropical low, even as far north as the low now is.
91L is also looking like it should now be classified as a TD, with Humberto not far off.
| tekkrite |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 12 2007 02:09 AM |
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Re: now and then
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The northern half of the low above the ITCZ looks like it's coalescing now, with a solid blob of convection and some outflow starting up. I guess we'll see in the morning whether it lasts through the diurnal cycle. It looked good last night, too.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 12 2007 02:11 AM |
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Re: now and then
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It's been my observation that on several occasions NHC will let a numberable/nameable system ride if it is of no threat to land and only to shipping, to be "handled" by the high seas forecasts. Might not be the case this time tho, best I can tell. Looks like, as NHC writes, Gabby has just lost too much of its internal structure, regardless of what the convection is doing at this time, to qualify as a tropical cyclone any longer. Most strikingly, at the surface, its center appears to be very ragged, disorganized, and with sustained winds under 20 knots, at best.
91L's upgrade looks baked in the cake. The tightening LLC of earlier today has only tightened further with time, as it has also continued to blow up deep convection. In all reality, it is probably a hair's breadth away from being an upgrade tonight. Long term prospects are potentially huge for wherever this one ends up. The environment in its path isn't at all unlike what we recently saw in the paths of our two other CV majors this past month.
90L not so baked.. maybe half-baked. Ingredients not all there today, as yesterday, as the day before - but more "there" is there with each new day. It may get it together just enough before ocean runs out on it. In fact, it may have more ocean than expected if it just rides the coast for a few extra days. Front seems to be helping pull it up a bit fast, tho. Either way 90L, whether it pulls an 11th hour number off or not, looks to pump copious moisture into the Texas coast, perhaps also following the quasi-stationary front all the way to as far east as Florida, eventually. That is to say, the moisture - if not an intact system - may easily ride along and/or push into the frontal boundary, triggering quite the clutch of tropical downpours.
| TeamJP2002 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 13 2007 05:15 AM |
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Tropics
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First time poster -- long time reader.
I know a lot of attention is being paid to Humberto right now, but just looking at water vapor image from the Gulf of Mexico region (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html) and noticed a flare up due south of Cuba.
Anyone else looking at this...