MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu May 29 2008 05:28 PM
East Pacific Alma Over Land

Sunday the Atlantic Season Starts, and we'll once again focus solely on it.

Normally you would find this information in the Other basins section of the site, but as a lead in to next week...

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Alma formed from Tropical Depression 1-E this morning and appears to rapidly be intensifying. Hurricane Warnings are now up for the western coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. It probably is a category 1 hurricane now.



After landfall the track takes it north and northwest, likely to fizzle out or weaken greatly as it turns northwest over Central America, bringing a good deal of rain.



Flhurricane normally focuses on the Atlantic Basin, and does not have as much information about Eastern Pacific Systems. You can find more information at the National Hurricane Center


Beach
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 29 2008 05:38 PM
Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Is it me or does it look like the "perceived" center is moving
in a NNE movement.
I looks like it will be over land before its projection.

Thoughts...


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu May 29 2008 06:56 PM
Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane

Alma is should be running winds around 80-90 mph winds now (my estimate, not official) ... landfall for the center should be in the next 2-6 hrs if it maintains its slow movement to the north. See there has been another round of intense storms flaring up right on the west side of the eye....about to wrap around to the east side... another short burst in intensification?

Vis Floater
Close up of Costa Rica

**i'm interested in the area of storms near 75w and 15n... in the caribbean.. got a mid level spin to it... south of jamica... is this the tropical wave/area of storms that the GFS is goin to drag to the NW and try to develope? well the epac started off with a bang! i hope the atlantic is not like that, but i have a feeling the GFS is goin to be right down the road with something on the atlantic side flaring up within the next week or so.**


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu May 29 2008 06:58 PM
Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane

It may have peaked near hurricane strength around noon (est) but I think with land interaction now it has weakened somewhat..I also think its moving inland within the hour. I could be wrong but I say its less than a 25% chance of it making hurricane status at 5pm...by morning it may not even be a T.S. The area near Jamaica is a convergence of winds giving lift and thunderstorms.. ..

srquirrely
(Weather Watcher)
Thu May 29 2008 07:31 PM
Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane


**i'm interested in the area of storms near 75w and 15n... in the caribbean.. got a mid level spin to it... south of jamica... is this the tropical wave/area of storms that the GFS is goin to drag to the NW and try to develope?

**Me too...

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu may 29 2008


Tropical wave is along 71w S of 21n moving W 15-20 kt. Wave
signature is obscured by high clouds that cover much of the
Caribbean...however GFS model guidance suggests slight low-level
cyclonic turning which is aiding in producing scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms across Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola.

...but I think ridging over GOM is going to totally block any movement in this direction.
Sure looks like an active start coming 6/1!


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Thu May 29 2008 08:15 PM
Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane

Alma may have peaked at minimal hurricane intensity, but it looks like the center is onshore in the latest sat pics and its demise is imminent.

allan
(Weather Master)
Thu May 29 2008 08:57 PM
Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane

TS Alma has made Landfall, no hurricane status, but it sure looks a heck like one
I still dont see much of a westward component, in fact, Alma is moving exactly where I thought it was gonna go. In time, while the remnants will be soaking Central America, I believe a new problem invades us around Jamaica. Of course time will always tell, can't be TOO CONFIDENT with these things ya know? Mother nature can always surprise us.


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu May 29 2008 10:18 PM
alma inland

that's a first. we just had a tropical storm strength system come ashore east of the mexico/guatemala border on the pacific side... not another like it in the record. sure, there was adrian in 2005 that rapidly weakened to a depression before coming in on the narrow coastline of honduras, and barbara NEARLY made it last year around this time (just west of the border). this storm is way east of either, and stronger than both. true that there are a couple of odd storms on the atlantic record that strangely have their origins in pacific waters. those probably reduce the significance of this storm somewhat.
it'll be a couple days before we get an idea just how much mess this thing caused. coastal impact shouldn't be too great.. winds were only around 50kt, only a couple of bays on that side, not really any offshore shallows to run up a surge or the wind to create one. the storm's entire legacy will revolve around how much rain it drops in central america, and what results. it's fairly slow moving and evolved inside a large monsoon trough, so there will probably be some grim news from that part of the world by the weekend.
my prog on it's future.. is just right of the forecast track, just like the storm has trended. maybe it will creep into the gulf of honduras just a bit, maybe into the lower bowl of the bay of campeche.. but there isn't much reason to believe that the storm won't spend much more time on land and eventually dissipate. i think the nhc decay is too fast.. once it clears the mountainous terrain on the western side of central america it's over less rugged terrain and potentially coastal lowlands. expect it will be around at least a couple of more days.
still a highly fluid situation as far as some kind of redevelopment or secondary development, although chances do not appear high at this point. so far the official line on alma hasn't quite hit the mark, so i'm not ready to discount the idea just yet. like some of the others are implying.. the overall pattern would not be unfavorable for something to end up near the yucatan next week; it just isn't clear how that might unfold, at this point.
HF 2318z29may


dem05
(User)
Fri May 30 2008 01:36 AM
Re: alma inland

Alma's trickery was really something today...and the risk of flooding in Central America is nothing we want to see.

Alma may also leave a legacy of development in the Caribbean (Although her circulation will never make it there). As far Alma's core circulation is concerned...Particularly considering that she was a compact cyclone. However, the moisure from Alma has definately bee ejected into the Caribbean, as has been a somewhat more favorable weather patter. Also, Alma's core was small, but she was embeded within a much larger circulation pattern. The broader circulation pattern may allow for new low pressure development and the focus of this broad pattern may be shifting to the carribean side. Granted, it will take time before Alma's small circulation spins down completely (even with the mountains). However, as noted on this shortwave loop. Breakaway action from Alma is already occurring and there may be some subtle hints on a new mid level circulation trying to form in the intense thunderstorms over eastern Nicaragua and Hondoras. Check out this nice shortwave loop...

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html

Broader view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri May 30 2008 05:42 AM
Re: alma inland

tonights satellite presentation is interesting.... around the center... the storms seem to have gone elongated... from west to east..... center really took a beating on those mountains... whats that over in the caribbean?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html


dem05
(User)
Fri May 30 2008 06:29 AM
Re: alma inland

Them, there cloud tops are warming a bit in the western Caribbean, so it may not look as impressive by morning. However, this is a transition period more than likely and these things take time, so not surpprising. The overall circulation envelope has been broad for Alma all along and spread well into the Caribbean (Thanks to the monsoon trough she evolved in). Albiet, she remained small and compact within this envelope. That envelope remained large. On the shortwave tonight, I can see that not only land affected Alma, but so did this Caribbean weather. Alma's remanants on shortwave resemble an elongated trough, which now extends from her old center and off to the NE into the extreme western Caribbean. Even her core convection has been drwn sharptly Eastward this evening. Stay tuned...cause these things take time, but the focus may shift to the Carribean and a freash new system may evolve. TONS of uncertainty as Alma's core circulation spins down and dies a mountainous death, but it is definately possible to see something new in the Caribbean based on this unique environment .

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri May 30 2008 11:19 AM
Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane

Seems Accuweather's Senior Meteorologists is starting to hint at a Caribbean feature as well:

"Tropical Storm Alma formed in the eastern Pacific early Thursday and made landfall along the Nicaraguan coast Thursday afternoon. Alma is tracking to the north and could cross the northwest Caribbean between Honduras and Belize for a brief time before turning more to the northwest and west over the weekend. It will cause life-threatening flooding rains and mudslides across central America through the weekend. Alma formed within a larger trough of low pressure that extended from the eastern Pacific into the southwestern Caribbean and this broad trough of low pressure may spawn another tropical feature in the western Caribbean next week. A zone of high pressure to the north over the Gulf of Mexico would have to break down before any significant northward movement would occur and does not appear likely through early to middle part of next week. Some models suggest that an upper trough dips southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico later next week, perhaps steering a tropical system toward Florida. In the meantime, clusters of showers and thunderstorms will cross the western Caribbean and areas in and near the zone of showers and thunderstorms will endure locally heavy rainfall over a multi-day period."

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski and Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck

Should be interesting next week.


Beach
(Weather Guru)
Fri May 30 2008 11:31 AM
Re: alma inland

Looking at the WC this morning it sure looks like it wants to get something going:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Looking at the bouy links in the general area:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Winds are 15-25knts pressure holding at 29.86
but there isn't a westerly component to the winds.
"yet"



Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri May 30 2008 12:01 PM
Re: alma inland

*IF* it holds together, we will have our first Atlantic invest later today, I think. Not sure why NRL hasn't picked up on it yet, except that it's indirectly an offshoot of the remnants of Alma (I guess). No closed circulation (yet, as you point out) but a good comma-like signature nontheless... and I can remember too many storms forming in that area this time of year (well, in June anyway).
I can just imagine the very first TWO of the 2008 Atlantic season...


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri May 30 2008 02:27 PM
Re: alma inland

Looking at the most recent vis loop, there seems to be a broad circulation developing over the Gulf of Honduras. If that spins up, we're looking at a very early start on the Atlantic side of things this year.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri May 30 2008 02:58 PM
Re: alma inland

If I'm not mistaken the small remaining vortex from Alma is now seen just off the north coast of Honduras.
This could explain the flair up of convection to the NE of that point. I believe the bulk of what is in the Carribean is mid level, and now that a low level is there things may congeal a bit. The forecast for the remnants of Alma is NNW to NW, which would take it back on to land fairly soon so major development, if any at all would be unexpected, I think. But if that is the vortex over water, things will change in the next few hours and some probable solution begin to emerge.


allan
(Weather Master)
Fri May 30 2008 02:59 PM
Re: alma inland

that spin your reffering to is Alma. It never moved west like the models had planned it, it will be interesting. It needs more time to organize after going through some extremely rough terrain. The NOGAPS a few days back showed this sort of scenario, then dropped it. It looks like it may have been right all that time.

('Wishcasting' comments were removed.)


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri May 30 2008 03:21 PM
Re: alma inland

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...
ASSOCIATED LARGELY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...PREVAILS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

from the 8am pdt pkg

Can see a small vortex, off the coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri May 30 2008 05:08 PM
Re: alma inland

The NW movement looks logical after I looked at the WV sat loop. That trough descending southward over the Atlantic coastal waters off GA and FL certainly indicates that scenario.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri May 30 2008 09:43 PM
Attachment
Re: East Pacific Alma Over Land

This is simply almost amazing.. and not just for early and preseason activity.

Some very impressive stats about Alma's landfall, as mentioned in last night's TS Alma Discussion Number 6:

Quote:

ALMA IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM...IN THE AVAILABLE RECORDS...TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

IT ALSO MADE LANDFALL FARTHER EAST THAN ANY PREVIOUS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE...

AND WAS THE FIRST TO DO SO ON THE PACIFIC COAST
OF NICARAGUA




Most impressive.

As if this wasn't already impressive enough -

(SEE ATTACHMENT)


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri May 30 2008 10:09 PM
dropped?

this is fuzzy territory, but alma is still 'there' as far as i'm concerned. there is a closed low now off belize that was on alma's previous track... it may not be "exactly" alma, but is at least a spin-up vestige that formed offshore in it's broader circulation. interesting now, because it meets the general criteria for a tropical depression. i'm sure the nhc has some kind of 'not enough organized convection' argument against calling it a depression, but the yucatan is pretty much going to get just that. it doesn't look like the kind of situation where this thing will quickly spin back up, but it wouldn't surprise me too much.
do think they called it too early. this is likely to be another case where there are no more advisories, but the nhc's post-analysis later will pencil in a significantly longer track for the system months later. remnant lows are pretty much depressions when they move back over water and have any convection to speak of, because gusty winds start to mix back down to the surface.
anyhow, the whole mess is keeping right of the forecast track pretty effectively. don't be surprised if it goes in higher in the yucatan and comes back out more over water in the bay of campeche. on another note the storm has moved faster than anticipated in general, so it wouldn't be surprising if it really does turn southwest and finally go away, rather than hovering near the yucatan for days on end.
HF 2309z30may


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri May 30 2008 10:34 PM
Re: dropped?

I agree. The circulation seems to have tightened throughout the day and convection is developing much nearer the coc. Tomorrow may prove interesting.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Fri May 30 2008 10:48 PM
We now have 90L

Yep,

Looks like we have our first invest of the season
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
shows 90L

It's a sloppy mess, but it could spin up fairly quickly.

I guess this also means it's a separate entity and not a continuation of Alma.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri May 30 2008 11:03 PM
Re: We now have 90L

Quote:

Yep, It's a sloppy mess, but it could spin up fairly quickly.

I guess this also means it's a separate entity and not a continuation of Alma.


Yes, it's pretty "ugly." Also, the proximity to land may prevent significant development before landfall. We'll have to wait and see if the system makes it to Campeche in any shape.

Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Sat May 31 2008 01:26 AM
Re: We now have 90L

We now have invest 90L but the models show it to going west for now .... Only 45 miles off of Land.

weatherguy08
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat May 31 2008 02:43 AM
Re: We now have 90L

The NHC has issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement on this system. They are pretty much saying what we have been saying; the system is too close to land and will likely move westwards, bringing heavy rains to Central America...again.

Link to STDS: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/302348.shtml?


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat May 31 2008 04:45 AM
Invest 90L Intensifying

Possibly somewhat to the chagrin of a few forecasters, tonight Invest 90L has remained virtually stationary for the past several hours, IVO 17N 87W, and as such, rather than increase its interaction with land, it has increased its interaction with warm Caribbean waters.

It is very noteworthy to also point out that the upper-level anticyclone which was very favorably situated over 90E/Alma, has shifted eastward almost in some unison with that former tropical storm, and is now placed just about very favorably atop Invest 90L.

Over the course of the night so far, NRL has bumped 90L from 1006 mb and 25 knots to 1005 mb and 30 knots.

Over the course of the last three hours, deep convective banding is bursting out just to the east of the LLCC, with some filling in attempting to take place just to the center's west, as well, despite being impeded by some interaction with the Yucatan.

Finally, a recent ship report just came in that is certainly eye-catching:

SHIP 0300 UTC 18.80N 86.10W East wind at 44.1 knots
Pressure 29.80 and rising by 0.06
air temp 78.8 water temp 80.6

If verified, that's a 51 mph wind probably at about mast-level. The fact that the pressure had been rising suggests that the ship may have been traveling away from the center of lowest pressure and/or (and I suspect more likely) both that -and- higher pressure is pinching from the north/northeast, creating a potent gradient zone in the NE quad.

We've seen situations similar to this before that sometimes, when combined with continued improvements in the convection and internals, it is all that is required to force the hands of an upgrade. (Torrential downpours and gale-force winds from a tropical low so close to land and all.. even if it isn't completely, undeniably, 100% "there," at that exact point in time.)


I'll have to edit those earlier remarks, as a helpful 0245 UTC ASCAT pass along with the most recent three frames of various sat loops suggest that this most recent burst of convection looks to have possibly bowled the whole mess westward... based on all of this, the best I can tell now is what could be the primary LLC is now just offshore of Belize and still rolling generally west at the moment.



Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Sat May 31 2008 09:55 AM
Re: Invest 90L Intensifying

Well, 1st post of the season i guess 90L has got the attention of the guys at NHC with another STDS issued. Makes for an interesting read as they suggest the system could become a Tropical Depression before landfall. Gut feeling is that it probably already is. Satellite imagery shows a decent system, with abundant deep and strong convection located in the eastern semi-circle, while land interaction is limiting development in the western semi-circle. Visible imagery when it become available in the next hour or two should give a better handle on the structure and organisation too.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat May 31 2008 10:48 AM
alma starts a fight

maybe this is a bit of a presumptuous guess... but you know they're busy butting heads down in miami over whether this thing is alma or tropical depression 1A. as far as to whether it has the required organization... i mean, duh. guys, just write an advisory saying 'egads.... alma lives!', and be done with it. it's not any weaker than when the last one was written, and surely a good deal more organized. also, got more than a couple models saying that it's a viable system when it gets bay of campeche side, too.
it can't be helping that the mexican radars are down (surprise surprise) in the area... and of course nobody had the forethought to task recon for today, because why in the hell would the system keep moving nnw, and/or redevelop offshore? i mean, honestly, didn't we keep drawing the official track to stay on land? the NERVE.
no eyes down there, just an obvious low pressure with a bunch of banded deep convection around it. can't look and see if they're doing anything either, because that product only starts updating when atlantic hurricane season officially starts... tomorrow.
honestly, the nhc cracks me up sometimes. give them a brand new system and they'll pretty consistently name it when it starts looking like *coughcoughalmahm* does. give them a pacific system declared dead on the atlantic side, and you know they're having a big row over what it is. it's obviously alma because you can pretty continously track the low/rotary envelope and attribute it to pacific storm alma. calling it arthur is a big stretch when they do things like call a fragment of hurricane ivan 'ivan' again when it sweeps back into the gulf 4-5 days later. but you know somebody else is saying that the vorticity shifted and merged with offshore troughing induced by an atlantic wave, so it's obviously a new system... even though that wave was interacting with alma.
if it wasn't for doggone central america, making this so danged hard.
HF 1148z31may


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 01:23 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

I agree with HF.
90L is clearly - to anyone who has watched the genesis of the system - the remnants of Alma. It clearly has a LLC, with 35mph winds (according to the latest info I've found). Therefore, technically, it IS Tropical Depression Alma, whether the NHC wants to recognize it at this time or not. As I understand the naming rules as most recently modified a few years back, since Alma weakened below T.S. strength, if this system were to strengthen, it would be renamed to Arthur - but it's over land already, so that is not going to happen, unless it survives the passage over the Yucatan and emerges into the BOC or the GOM, and then re-strengthens.
IF that occurs.. and I'm sitting firmly on the fence as to whether I believe it will ... I believe NHC will rechristen the system TD One-A (although they don't use the -A designation publicly in the Atlantic basin, this would be a good use of it, in the sense that this is really an addendum to TD One-E )... and if it were to strengthen it would logically be given the name Arthur.
Having said all of that, the circulation does seem to be holding itself together over land this morning.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat May 31 2008 01:33 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Very murky picture to even try to define.

Rules say when a storm crosses over it gets a new name so it can't be Alma2 the sequel but Arthur.
That may be the only clear cut thing known for sure right now.

If it gets named and doesn't disolve and reform again somewhere else.

Water Vapor shows movement north a bit blocked despite the fact that it doesn't really seem to want to move west for now or just possibly bobble around a bit stationary until a doorway more northerly (or NNW) opens up. Though easy money says it gets into the BOC this time of year.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sat.irW1_an.gif

Great view of just how hard it is for the NHC or anyone to be sure what this system is going to do if anything.

Perhaps it is not as important where it came from as much as where it is going?


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sat May 31 2008 02:15 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

My guess is this will continue to move mostly west, which it is doing now, and will never get beyond a TD classification before final dissipation in Mexico in a couple of days. NHC gets of the hook for the rename.
It is clearly the same system to those like me who rely on visual evidence. If it isn't ,it is only because of a meterological tecnicality.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat May 31 2008 03:05 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Yes, it looks like it is moving directly westward now. Unless it gets a northerly component, it will never get to the Bay of Campeche.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat May 31 2008 03:13 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

I would have of thought this was a weak Tropical storm as of earlier this morning. Thunderstorms near the COC.. pressure of 1003mb and sat fixes and ships reported 44kt winds. So I really dont know why they didnt want to issue TS warnings for belieze and south of cozumel. Maybe they figure since it is making landfall this afternoon...but that's a stupid reason.
With the blocking high over Tx-La over the next 4-5 days...this will meander over southern mexico and the BOC.


allan
(Weather Master)
Sat May 31 2008 03:49 PM
Re: East Pacific Alma Over Land

This was at least a Tropical Depression before it made landfall in Belize. The winds were gusting over 40 mph on some bouys, because it was so close to land, they didn't pull the trigger. However I argue on that and so does other people. Anyways, I don't know if I see another surprise convection blow up in the BOC for one reason. The waters are warm but the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is very low in that area so a major blow up like last night would be less possible. We'll see what happens

weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Sat May 31 2008 04:01 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Well, just to throw in my 2 pesos worth....; I cannot help but believe that if we had the same data, along with the same sat. presentation, AND if we were to re-insert this same system 400 miles ESE of the Virgin Islands in mid August...., that we'd be at extreme minimum be calling this a tropical depression. It is for that reason that I try to avoid the theoretical ( or more correctly "political" ) discussion as to what we are actually looking at. I do believe that at minimum there is more than ample arguement to classify this as a tropical depression. That said, than comes the added debate many have already considered as to whether or not this is Alma, or simply "the son of Alma". Once again, no one can argue that it is of the same "envelope" system. Less definitive may be whether or not from a unique vorticity center from a different trop. wave or not. Even that though, is less currious to me as to if the current system has one center or possibly two.

As the center was initialized over Belize this morning at 12Z, I can't help but wonder if that center may be filling given the fact of being over land, and if a mid level center in the envelope's NE quadrant might be attempting to work its way down to the center around 18.5 and 87.5. Even if a new center were to attempt to form under the convection here or elsewhere in the eastern semicircle, the only ultimate difference in an overall westward motion of the system, might be "if" a more northward relocation of a center would permit the system to maintain, deepen, and finally get tagged with a name ( whatever it would be ). I suppose one other less likely but possible scenario could play out, which would be for a for a storm to form out of a mid level center as discussed above, but to somehow just be far enough to the east to not be caught under a building ridge over northern Mexico, and to be more or less caught in a COL, and more or less sit and spin in the NW Carib.

No answers here, but fun to watch as our Atlantic Season officially starts in 12 hours.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 04:23 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Quote:

Tropical Storm Arthur within the hour.




Not gonna happen, since at 11:30am EDT the NHC declared the LLC to be inland over Belize and the Yucatan.
Note, I did not say that the LLC was actually inland, I just said that the NHC declared that it was.

Quote:

I suppose one other less likely but possible scenario could play out, which would be for a for a storm to form out of a mid level center as discussed above, but to somehow just be far enough to the east to not be caught under a building ridge over northern Mexico, and to be more or less caught in a COL, and more or less sit and spin in the NW Carib.




Looking at the floaters, it appears to me that the LLC is actually due east of Belize City, still over water. Of course, that's based upon my eyeballs which are known to be wrong more often than not . So the scenario you mention is actually what I was thinking MIGHT be playing out. Clearly, there is DEEP convection forming around this "secondary/developing" low that is offshore - and this new low, if it is one, does not appear to be moving.

Bottom line, in my opinion, is the NHC blew this one.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat May 31 2008 04:40 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

they wont upgrade it at all unless they relocate the center back over water. I think the previous post was right on assuming the midlevel center may make it back down to the surface.....but probably not for a few days or really who knows.. Models all agree on moving this west then in the longer range north late next week...whatever mess is left to be organized.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 04:43 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Quote:

they wont upgrade it at all unless they relocate the center back over water. I think the previous post was right on assuming the midlevel center may make it back down to the surface.....but probably not for a few days or really who knows.. Models all agree on moving this west then in the longer range north late next week...whatever mess is left to be organized.




Will the mid-level center still exist in a few days, though, and if so, where?


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat May 31 2008 04:54 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Looking at the GOM WV loop, I don't see the possibility of a northward tack anytime soon from this system. It is quite well defined and as several others have mentioned, it is the remains of Alma. I think in hindsight, the track and history of Alma probably will be extended.

Ricreig
(User)
Sat May 31 2008 05:03 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

As long as the high to the north of us remains in place, it really doesn't matter too much what the name of the disturbance down south of us is called. It likely won't affect us here in the US. However, looking ahead, there is a push of energey entering the north-west US that will probably induce that high to move off to the east in a few days which will put us on the reverse flow side of that high pressure area that has been blocking all of the tropical moisture to our south. When that happens, any remnants of Alma, or TD1 or just the leftover moisture will start to be drawn NW then N into the GOM where it could get caught up in the tail end of a front. This is a classic scenerio this time of the year for the start of the wet season and given the energy already evident in the Western Carribian, I wouldn't be surprised to see somethind develop, but I don't think it would be a direct continuation of Alma or TD-1, possible, but unlikelly.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat May 31 2008 05:06 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Well, well, well! They pulled the trigger on this! It's a bit late, but I still don't see this system going very far. I still have my doubts as to whether it will get into the BoC.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 05:08 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Well, this is a record. Declare a system dead, and then two hours later, declare it a tropical storm.
In this case, the flaw was to have declared it dead to begin with, obviously.
I *still* believe the LLC of Arthur is reforming east of the identified position.

ETA: It appears that they are not going to issue a "discussion" with the initial advisory package. At least, I can't find one that is out yet. I'm curious to see what, if anything, they are going to say in a discussion about the genesis of Arthur. Perhaps they are still trying to figure out how to justify calling it Arthur?

ETA2: And as soon as I hit SEND, they issue the discussion and say this:
This system is not designated Tropical Storm Alma because the
surface center of Alma dissipated over the high terrain of Central
America yesterday.




dem05
(User)
Sat May 31 2008 05:19 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

EDIT: This was not officially Arthur as I was typing. Reference 90L as Arthur now in the text below.

I see the great debate of is or isn't 90L the spawn of Alma. This is a somewhat classic debate that has occurred in the past. However, with Alma, there is a twist.

I bring to light the following storms of the recent past: Hurricane Mitch of 1998 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004. In the case of Mitch, the mid level center that was directly affiliated with the core of the hurricane worked it's way into the Bay of Campechee. That mid level center was able to work it's way back to the surface and re-develop into a tropical storm. After much debate, the system retained it's name. As for Ivan in 2004, the same evolution occurred. The mid level circulation directly affiliated with the core of the system re-emerged over water. After a long loop southward, the system worked it's way back to the surface and re-formed several days later. This system required even further examination and debate, but after clear evidence was provided, the decision was made that the new storm was Ivan.

In this case, we have two items to discuss.
1.) I think everyone is on board with this one, but if 90L was to develop and it indeed had been the remnants of Alma, it's name would be re-assigned to an Atlantic name.
2.) Alma is the daughter of a monsoon trough and likewise, 90L is the son of the same monsoon trough. However, 90L is certainly not the child of Alma. There are some very good reason to say that 90L is not the remenants of Alma in any way shape or form. Alma was a small cyclone embedded within the broader monsoon trough. While it is true that Alma pumped up some heat and moisture in the Caribbean, the circulation of Alma never made it to the Gulf of Hondoras. In fact, the stage was already being set for 90L to evlove within the broader trough while Alma was just starting to spin down over Central America. By mid day yesterday, it was clear to see that new vorticity was evolving within the moonsoon trough over the Western Caribbean. At the same time, the remenant low of Alma was still deciernable over western Hondoras. As time went by, that remenant low was absorbed into the broader monsoon rotation evolving over the western Caribbean. In some, there was no remenant (low level or mid level) of Alma to make it over water and 90L is of it's own independant development within the broader monsoon trough. If anything, 90L ate the remenants of Alma for lunch mid day yesterday.

I hope this expalains the evloution a bit. In the mean time, I am digging to see if there is an archived satellite loop that depicts how this dance occurred. Will be back with it if I find it.


Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Sat May 31 2008 05:25 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

NHC was to fast to pull the trigger on Arthur, think they giving themself fast count incase it turns out like last year.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 05:29 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Quote:

If anything, 90L ate the remenants of Alma for lunch mid day yesterday.




I like that analogy, even though I'm not sure I agree with it.
The fact of the matter is that under current storm naming protocols/rules, if a named storm travels from one body of water, across land, and then into another body of water, the storm is renamed. It doesn't matter if the storm maintains itself or not, so in this instance, the origins of Arthur are irrelevant in its naming. Now, whether that protocol makes sense, is a matter for debate, but I think it does, because let's just say that this system had been kept as Alma, and then somehow moved into the central Gulf, grown stronger, and made landfall along the U.S. coastline. Then, the "first" storm to form in the Atlantic basin is given the name "Arthur"... which would cause significant confusion among the public. So, the "right" thing to do is to name this "Arthur" from that standpoint.

The flaw by the NHC is to state that the reason the system was named Arhur had anything do to with Alma other than the fact that it crossed from one body of water into another and was renamed by established protocol.


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Sat May 31 2008 05:37 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Arthur has a large wind field - tropical storm force winds out to 260 miles. This is probably, in part, why the system is forecast to weaken by only 5 knots while transiting the Yucatan, and then reintensify over the BOC. Surprised they left it so late to call it, as it was probably a Tropical Depression earlier today too. Cant remember the last time NHC classified a system after it had moved onland tho!

xxflcyclonexx
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat May 31 2008 05:46 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Current Weather Conditions: Belize / Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport, Belize
(MZBZ) 17-32N 088-18W 5M
Conditions at

2008.05.31 1700 UTC

Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light rain
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.77 in. Hg (1008 hPa)
ob MZBZ 311700Z 19006KT 9999 -RA BKN010 BKN080 OVC250 25/24 Q1008 2979INS NOSIG

24 Hour Summary
Latest 1 PM (17) May 31 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) S 7 light rain
Noon (16) May 31 29.8 (1009) SSW 6 rain
11 AM (15) May 31 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) SSW 9 light rain
10 AM (14) May 31 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) S 12 light rain
9 AM (13) May 31 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.76 (1007) S 12 rain
8 AM (12) May 31 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.73 (1006) SSW 9 light rain
7 AM (11) No Data
6 AM (10) No Data
5 AM (9) May 31 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.71 (1006) SW 9 light rain
4 AM (8) No Data
3 AM (7) No Data
2 AM (6) May 31 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.75 (1007) WNW 5 light rain


dem05
(User)
Sat May 31 2008 06:00 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

I did find the final floater images of Alma are still on the server under the link I had for the shortwave. It does show how the center of Alma was obsorbed "for lunch" into the overall circulation of the monsoon trough. Also, you may note at least one lower level vorticity in the extreme SW Hondoran waters (which was later absorbed as well) as well as a mid level circulation around 18N and 85W (Which was the beginnings of Arthur).

To help in identifyting the remenant low of Alma, click the radio button "Trop Fcst Pts." at the top of the image:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html


HanKFranK
(User)
Sat May 31 2008 06:10 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

my contention that this thing is really alma.. is because the mid-level vorticity center from the storm which did cross central america.. emerged off the north shore of honduras yesterday. there was a surface spin up present in the area, and a sort of trough axis extending northeast and tangled with that advancing tropical wave. yeah, maybe the surface low did sort of wash out against the base of the low-trough fixture to the northeast, but that mid-level center was clearly present during the entire crossing, and is what 'arthur' just developed underneath during the last 24 hours.
i get it, this is fuzzy territory. if a tropical cyclone center decays at the surface, and redevelops in the same general area (i.e. erin 2001).. is it a different storm? the mitch and ivan examples for a storm that pretty much washes out over land but has it's mid-level vorticity induce another system. remember td 10 and katrina? the gate has swung both ways, but the katrina example was from a several-days dead system.. not something that developed 24 hours later along the vorticity track of a previous system. as far as basin-crossing storms.. since the new rules about name retention were established earlier this decade, they haven't held up with systems like iris and its pacific version, or with our most recent example alma. it does sort of load the numbers a bit when a system that is directly attributable to a weakened storm crosses basins and causes another 'storm', when it isn't clear that it isn't just a reintensified version of the same parent system.
interesting that the same sort of controversy exists around tornado counts. if a parent mesocyclone drops four tornadoes in quick succession... is it the same tornado lifting and touching, or are they four discrete tornadoes to tally? how can you tell if a tornado jumped six times if there were no spotter reports and a bunch of straight line wind damage mixed in, if you're trying to count every touchdown as a discrete tornado? i've been paying attention to this due to all the severe weather we've had recently (and the crazy tornado numbers caused by storms in 2004)... and seen obvious differences from one nws reporting area to another. tornado reporting is way up in recent years, and it's hard to nail down long term statistics for either tornadoes or tropical cyclones with that kind of observation difference built into the tallies over recent decades.
anyhow, lots of stuff to grumble about. lots of conflicting voices and opinions.
HF 1909z31may


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat May 31 2008 06:13 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Quote:

The fact of the matter is that under current storm naming protocols/rules, if a named storm travels from one body of water, across land, and then into another body of water, the storm is renamed. It doesn't matter if the storm maintains itself or not, so in this instance, the origins of Arthur are irrelevant in its naming.




This is actually a very common misunderstanding.


A couple of years ago the policy was changed. If and when a system crosses into another basin, even by way of land, as long as its core remains intact and is very much the nucleus for renewed development, then it retains the same name.

This was not the case this time, however. As an example of what happened today, this situation is not at all dissimilar to TD 10 being dropped and replaced with TD12 (Katrina ATL 2005).

The core surface circulation of Alma did in fact wash out over the mountains of Central America, while much of its moisture and related mid-level vorticity went on to merge with a preexisting surface low which was birthed by the same parent broad area of low pressure. Additionally, it is likely that at least one approaching easterly wave interacted with this soup in a fashion that helped to get the new spins going, which finally took shape in what is now (officially) Tropical Storm Arthur.

Consider this from NHC's Special Discussion Number 1
Quote:

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY.




Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 06:19 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Quote:

This is actually a very common misunderstanding.
A couple of years ago the policy was changed. If and when a system crosses into another basin, even by way of land, as long as its core remains intact and is very much the nucleus for renewed development, then it retains the same name.





I just googled this and you're correct and I was mistaken. I thought the policy was changed a couple of years ago to provide for renaming the system, but I got it backwards


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 06:29 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

I think NHC got it right again.. although i think it may have been a TS a few hrs earlier...

"THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY. "

agree there too.. the spin we all saw on cross to the north was a mid-upper lever low... the surface from what i could tell got torn apart as it crossed the mountains.... and the mid-upper low moved to the north under the anti-cyclone flow aloft... i think the ship report and buoy report are what made NHC make the call. Welcome to the season of 2008... which officially starts in 12 hrs.... (time to tweak my seasonal forecast now!)


dem05
(User)
Sat May 31 2008 06:36 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

I think about 99% of us missed the NHC memo on the newer naming protocals. Just curious Hugh, do you still have that link handy? That would definately be a "for the good of the order" link to post as our season is just getting underway.

In the mean time, the models do indicate that the ridging should remain pretty strong. Maybe some additional development in the BOC after the Yucatan crossing. However, this does not look like a US threat for the time being (next 4 days or so). If the ridge persists as indicated, I'd expect it to follow the forecast track and eventually wash out in Mexico. Too bad, cuase Florida could use the benificial rain of a very weak system.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 06:59 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

by the way... GFS is up to something again at the end of the short range.... looks like we may get some left over mositure pulled up into the gulf coast?

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 07:03 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Here's a link to the PDF:
http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/08/pdf/03-chap3-08.pdf

On Page 5 is the following:

The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain
the name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated (RSMC)
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.
Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat May 31 2008 07:08 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Too bad the high that is keeping us HOT and DRY won't budge too soon- we need some moisture from Arthur
When is it forecasted to move on....


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Sat May 31 2008 07:37 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

It's going to take 1 to 2 storms for that ridge to break down and allow storms to head more north . This is first tropical storm to form in may since 1981. Can I change my forecast numbers since it looks like they are going to name everything this year . Looking at the ascat there are no winds over 29kt so I am not sure why they named this system .

http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/ascat_osi_25_prod/products/20080531_15_11.gif


dem05
(User)
Sat May 31 2008 07:59 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

Arthur is likely continuing his treck across the Yucatan. But hmmm...To early to make such a call, so here's something to watch over the next few hours: the area around 18.5N, 87.5W. With Arther embedded in a continued larger scale envelope, it would not be impossible to see a center re-formation in this proximity. There may be some signs that this may be trying to occur. We'll find out for sure in the coming hours.

Link (Shortwave): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html


DarleneCane
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat May 31 2008 08:13 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

1. Excellent point by Hank Frank with regard to his analogy to Twister Outbreaks. Good point.

2. Often Tropical Storms are simply large messy areas of moisture with strong winds, low pressure and more than one center. One wins, some lose and sometimes energy hands off to a newer stronger center. Hard to say here what Alma was eating for lunch as the webcam couldn't pick up the details and the devil is often in the details.

3. Y'all might wanna up your numbers if this is an example of how things are gonna be at the NHC. Not Old School but if you have a large area of severe weather with winds higher than 40mph still over water and gusting to the 50s isn't it prudent to warn people as that is theirjob. Tell it like it is I say.

4. If conditions and various imagery don't exist for Arthur to pull north or nnw aren't y'all curious what the GFS was eating that kept making it repeat that same forecast over and over? Got to give it credit as so far it was on the money with a named storm. Though I think 6/1 and 6/2 was when it got interesting.

5. Looks like one big frontal trough in ways with Arthur sitting in the caboose.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat May 31 2008 08:36 PM
Re: alma starts a fight

saw this in my email from earlier... up up and away!

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311600 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 31 MAY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 01/1530Z
D. 19.5N AND 92.0W
E. 01/1800Z TO 02/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 24HR FIXES AT 02/1800Z
NEAR 19.5N AND 94.5 W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. CORRECTION SENT TO CHANGE WINTER STORM TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
PLAN OF THE DAY. WVW


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat May 31 2008 08:41 PM
Administrative Note

I've started a new thread for TS Arthur for your use.
ED



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