Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat May 31 2008 08:36 PM |
Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Today Marks the first day of the 2008 Altantic Hurricane Season. It starts off this morning with Arthur still classified as a Tropical Storm, dumping heavy rain over Central America.
Names for storms this year are: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Lili, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Atlantic Hurricanes can affect anywhere along the eastern coastline and Gulf of Mexico, and even cause a great deal of inland flooding and some times wind damage well inland of where a system makes landfall.
Here's a plot of all storms from 1851-2004, see if your area is in it:
Currently one of flhurricane's image servers is down and we are working to get that back up, so the site may be appear jerky at times until we get all the image servers back online. Hopefully very soon.
If you would like to help out site costs this year for replacement hardware to keep the site running smooth please check out our Donations page. Thanks for all who have helped. We'll be tracking the storms and offering up more discussion with hopefully less unneeded hype.
For Florida, there is no Hurricane "Sales Tax Holiday" this year. This should not stop you from making sure all your supplies are there, and in working order.
As always, be hurricane prepared! And always, always, take the word of the National Hurricane Center over anything you read on the Internet, here or otherwise.
May 31st Update
Tomorrow is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which lasts until November 30th, but a day before it starts we already have our first named storm of the year...
Invest 90L was upgraded to minimal Tropical Storm Arthur just as he made landfall along the northern coast of Belize at 31/17Z. Although first forecasts move the system westward as a Tropical Depression into the Bay of Campeche in a couple of days, the system, under increased ridging to the north, is now in western Belize moving to the southwest - perhaps even south southwest. With the current movement, the chances of Tropical Depression Arthur reaching the southern Gulf of Mexico become increasingly remote and the system will probably die out over western Belize or the mountains of northern Guatemala.
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over the southern Yucatan, Belize and Guatemala. The highest sustained winds reported from Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport near Belize City were 12mph although reports of tropical storm force winds were reported along the northern coast of Belize at landfall.
Thus starts the 2008 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season - a day early - with the somewhat uncommon event of a tropical cyclone in May. Please use common sense and courtesy in your posts this season - see my Met Blog for guidance. Looks like its going to be a long and interesting season of storm tracking.
ED
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat May 31 2008 09:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Arthur still a TS... in the 5pm pkg.
IN ADDITION...NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE CLOUD PATTERN
ARTHUR IS KEPT AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE OR EVEN INLAND OVER MEXICO.....
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 31 2008 10:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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I find it almost scary how accurate the models were on Arthur. I clearly remember all of us talking about the potential for something to develop last Sunday and Monday, then come Saturday, the first named storm of the system has developed. I'm not totally sure if this was an "accident" by the models or if they really caught on to the developing the system, but am not one to believe that all major models would develop a low this early and predict it so well a week out by total accident. This is something we are going to need to remember throughout the season, that we cannot simply right off a system a week before, especially if models are consistently in agreement with each other.
On a related note, this was from the Saturday PM AFD issued by the NWS Office in Lake Charles, LA:
"WITH THE RIDGE OUT OF THE WAY [next weekend]...THIS SCENARIO WILL OPEN
THE GULF TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES/MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF...THOUGH DIFFERING FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER...ARE INSISTENT THAT AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS."
The HPC said something similar:
"WHILE TS ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON WED DAY 4...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW AN AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A POSSIBLE LOW CENTER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI."
After looking at the models, the GFS shows the ridge over the GoM and the CONUS holding through Tuesday. On Tuesday, a low pressure system develops over KS/CO/OK Panhandle area and moves east. Then on Wednesday, a second area of low pressure forms in a similar area then also moves to the east. The combination of these two system results in weakening of the ridge and pressure falls over the GoM, thus "opening the door" for systems to move into the GoM. The ECMWF shows a very similar situation. The ECMWF shows falling surface pressures over the southern GoM in nine to ten days (i.e. Jun 9-10). The GFS only shows a broad area of low pressure over the Gulf, but it does show several consecutive low pressure system moving through the middle part of the CONUS which would "keep the door open" for anything to come up into the Gulf.
In summary, I'm not really saying if anything will develop, but the patterns appear to be in place to allow something to move northwards.
| DarleneCane |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 12:45 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Seems to me if Arthur was the type of guy who left with the girl who brought her then he will at some point go northwards at some point as the GFS had maintained that eventual ending though not sure how Arthur gets back to water in the short term. The high in the GOM is currently building down towards the BOC so I don't see how that scenario of Arthur doing the old infamous BOC track for early storms. GFDL and GFS both have Arthur moving very slowly, crawling so if part of it hangs around for the next impulse that could lift it.. a lot of "ifs" and "maybes" if you ask me.
Interesting to see what if anything happens. Either way we have used up one name before June even happened.
Wasn't too soon this year.
Question?
Could moisture flying off the top of Arthur help to erode the strong high to it's north or northeast a bit? It has always been a large area of moisture.
Unlike the small storms of last year may favor larger, wetter storms.
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 01:17 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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I am about 90% sure that we can write off Arthur for a U.S. landfall at this point. Models are in agreement that the ridge over the GOM and CONUS will hold through at least Wednesday. By that time, Arthur will probably be either dissipating or dissipated over inland Mexico, but as I said in an earlier post, the models show the ridge eroding during the late part of next week which would allow for storms to move northwards. Also, the long-range GFS shows the ridge remaining weak for some time. If anything develops near where Arthur did or in the GOM, a U.S. landfall would be more plausible.
I know I posted this earlier, but just to reiterate what the HPC said:
"WHILE TS ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON WED DAY 4...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW AN AREA OF
UNSETTLED WX AND A PSBL LOW CENTER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI."
Edit: changed "week" to "weak"
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 05:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Yeah, one would think Arthur would fall apart being still a weak storm however it has a large pocket and most of it is still over water feeding it so... seems to be there still.
This loop shows him oozing his way back to water.
When you look at this whole system.. Alma/Arthur or which ever center emerges it is as if it oozed more than moved.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor3/wg8vor3java.html
And.. would say it is going to make it ... go figure.
See what the models say tomorrow morning. See where the center of Arthur is tomorrow morning.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 08:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Arthur continues to show hints of a re-formation in the Gulf of Hondoras (Western Caribbean) this morning. At this time, Arthur's surface circulation over the Yucatan is still trackable on the shortwave...but it is very weak and diffuse. Mean time, the banding feature over the Gulf of Hondoras that was producing the tropical storm force winds no longer appears as a banding like feature. In itself, the area has taken on the appearance of a mid-level rotation with some of it's own banding. That said, it would not be a surprise to see Arthur re-form eastward over the extreme western Caribbean. This is were the energy has remained within Arthur and the overall circulation of this ongoing trough. Also, the evolution of a small and very weak cut off low may be trying to evolve north of the Yucatan Penninsula per the Water Vapor. Mean time, Vapor also shows that if Arthur does maintain himself and makes it to the Bay of Campeechee, the air over there is very dry. Looks like that would not bode well for re-development. Today will be an interesting day if Arthur does indeed re-form in the Gulf of Hondoras (Western Caribbean).
I will let you judge for yourself:
Link (Rainbow): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
Link (Shortwave): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Link (Water Vapor): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 09:19 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Just a post 5AM Advisory update and a fun point of conversation:
Per the Advisory, the NHC is still tracking the diffuse center of Arthur over the Yucatan and maintaining him as a tropical stom due to the weather in the Gulf of Hondoras. Per yesterday's discussion on the previous forum thread, many believed that Alma's mid level rotation made it to the GOH and was at least partly responsible for spawning Arthur. Likewise, some may contend that as the surface center of our current "Arthur" has moved inland, the mid level center stayed behind in the GOH as a component of the larger trough system.
As we discussed, naming convention rules state that due to the loss of a surface ciculation of Alma over Central America, the system in the Western Caribbean was definately Arthur. If the NHC does track the surface rotation of Arthur to spindown over Mexico, and the banding over the GOH does evolve into a new low level vorticity...I wonder how this naming convention would apply. Apparently, Arthur is being maintained as a tropical storm due to this GOH weather (which may be enough to to consider it a relocation if a new surface center does evolve in the Gulf of Hondoras). Likewise, if the surface center is tracked to dissapation and a new center forms in the GOH, I wonder if the NHC would be forced to move onto the letter B based on their established naming rules. Interesting...
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 11:48 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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I have a general question here for those with knowledge. Meteorologically, if that is the correct spelling, how are the tropics, i.e. the Caribbean, ITCZ, Atlantic, setting up this year compared to the active years of 2004, 2005. I do not believe that the formation of Arthur(Alma) is an indication one way or the other of an active season, but I am curious to see if the elements are appearing that may indicate a more robust season. Thank's
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 01:52 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Studying the models and sat images over the last hour , try this theory.
Models verify with Art dissipating inland while moving west and remnants moving more northerly with the weakening ridge possibly reforming in the SW BOC. In the mean time something spins off of Art's wake on the east side of Honduras as evidenced by the strong persistent convection that keeps popping in that area. This early season storm is reminiscient of a pattern I noticed in 04/05 where systems seemed to linger for days in weak steering environments.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 01:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Quote:
Apparently, Arthur is being maintained as a tropical storm due to this GOH weather (which may be enough to to consider it a relocation if a new surface center does evolve in the Gulf of Hondoras). Likewise, if the surface center is tracked to dissapation and a new center forms in the GOH, I wonder if the NHC would be forced to move onto the letter B based on their established naming rules. Interesting...
I had not considered the naming issue, because, well, I just hadn't thought about it, but you bring up a good point of discussion, at the least. It would not be the first time I LLC had reformed and forced the NHC to track a named storm from a different location... so in that respect, assuming the NHC isn't so naiive as to track the remnant low to dissipation when the new low is already in the formative stages, the name Arthur would be maintained. IF, however, the NHC does continue to track the "original" LLC to dissipation (which it seems like they are apt to do, from the 5am discussion), and THEN they decide to pick up on the developing low in the GOH... the naming would be a matter of significant debate, and largely one of timing. If a 6 hour span elapses between the discontinuance of advisories on "Arthur", and the issuance of advisories on "GOH System", I could see the NHC deciding (incorrectly, in my opinion) that the system was a new entity and warranted designation as "TD Two"/"TS Bertha". This could lead to a bit of a comical post-season analysis, where someone finally determines that Alma underwent not one, but two, sex/name changes.
ETA: 11am advisory downgrades Arthur, and says the circulation center is difficult to locate. *sigh*... try looking in the Gulf of Honduras.
ETA2: Is it just me, or is the GOES satellite down? SSD is not up-to-date.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 03:39 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Quote:
I have a general question here for those with knowledge. Meteorologically, if that is the correct spelling, how are the tropics, i.e. the Caribbean, ITCZ, Atlantic, setting up this year compared to the active years of 2004, 2005. I do not believe that the formation of Arthur(Alma) is an indication one way or the other of an active season, but I am curious to see if the elements are appearing that may indicate a more robust season. Thank's
Interesting to watch Arthur evolve ( or spin down ), along with all the associated meteorological debates on names, origin, and future motion. Dem, I too had thought Arthur had that look of trying to possibly "spin down" a new center from a mid level, on its east quadrant, but looking at the overall large envelope system that it is, am leaning more towards the likelihood of the overall system spinning down while over land, and eventually late today/tonight whatever convection over the W. Carib. to finally fall off as convergent inflow from the weekening LLC decreases. At this point, will defer to this forum's moderator discretion ( in keeping this post reply here or to moved to another forum ). Does Arthur's early emergence and/or the current atmospheric conditions indicate what this season may be to come?
With regards to the question posed as to what indication that this early named storm, along with the current overall conditions or appearance of the ITCZ, SST's, Surface Pressures, Upper Air, etc., this is what I too am more curious about. I tend to pay attention to the origin, motion, size, of early systems as kind of a "read" on the upcoming Hurricane Season. To me, early Sub tropical systems ( baroclinic or cut off lows ) indicate seasons with less "true tropical systems" or greater "weaker" storms. Arthur was certainly NOT this, and though weak due to land proximity, certainly tropical in nature. Does Alma's far Eastern Pacific origin ( or Arthur's Carib. emergence ) pertend to the overall W. Atlantic long wave pattern, thus better tipping our hand if or where latter storms are likely to form or recurve? For me, not enough to draw on, but I will extend this thought............. Arthur was a W. Carib. system. Origins and tracks of Atlantic tropical systems seem to occur in one or several "clusters". Contrary to last year, active Caribbean years often do not bode well for the Gulf States. My own assumpion is that we will certainly see additional tropical cyclone activity in the Central and Western Caribbean, and that some area of coastline between Florida and Texas is certain to be affected. I'm not willing to even speculate yet, if affected mean weak tropical systems droping copious amounts of rain, or one or more major hurricanes - still too early to tell.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 05:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Today is June 1st... All you Weather People should know the importance of this day... HURRICANE SEASON!!! We did have Arthur that sprung up yesterday from the remnents of Alma on the pacific side which came ashore in Nicaragua Friday, moved across Honduras and came out disorganzied just east of Belieze..but it gained enough organization again with bouy and quicksat data showing 44kt winds becoming a TS Arthur. Since there is a big mid level high over the NGOM Arthur quickly went into Belieze and S MX and is now a weak depression. It's highly doubtful he will make it back into the BOC but not impossible. Anyways nothing else really out there to really warrent. Long range models are useless after 5 days. Conditions by weds might be better to pick up on a trough near Cuba and a upper low east of the bahamas...sometimes on the southern end of a trough of low pressure a circulation might form....and if the upper low moves out..conditions can improve on a system. Right now, thats guesscasting and thats not in our Metoerology tests right? lol.
Anyways its good to see the Vets on here are back for another year. This is site probably has the most knowledgeable people giving us ideas and forecasts with even METS coming on. Lets do our best at giving the public a heads up on info,links, and the general aspects of atmospheric sciences that give us our passion for weather/hurricanes. Hope we have a great year!
scottsvb
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jun 01 2008 06:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Convection for over 18 hours in the GOH and then suddenly it begins to wane and it flares up in the Pacific. Still a twist there, still signs of circulation on the East Side... and on West Side getting color on IR..
Going to be a wait and see for the next 12 hours to see what Alma/Arthur wants to do and what NHC says about it though I imagine they will wait a good 24 before saying anything specific as it's all a fluid situation.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 01:08 AM |
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hanging around the yucatan
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i'm not the first person to mention it by far, but the gfs is still consistently (albeit in different ways) trying to take something up from the general location of the yucatan in about a week. the disturbed weather currently there just sort of persists, though i don't expect the nhc will be issuing many more advisories on arthur. at the outer ranges of their runs several of the other globals are hinting that the disturbed weather will be there at least... whether on the caribbean side or the campeche side. or maybe the pacific side? expect it's a pattern-feedback sort of thing... synoptically something wants to be there, so the models are picking it up. noteworthy that they aren't doing a whole lot as far as strength goes.
check out the gfdl and cmc if you want the zanier solutions to goggle at. sort of the humor corner for now, but every now and then those oddball solutions work out.
mostly fun for now... cause you can't expect anything really fearsome this time of year. ghastly exceptions like audrey notwithstanding... it's just june.
HF 0208z02june
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 01:29 AM |
Re: hanging around the yucatan
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Hank, your not kidding either....., except I don't take the GFDL lightly, so much as I certainly do the Canadian model. But, I agree with you that "something" really does want to come out of this soup. 18Z GFS, which I thought remarkedly picked up on all this mess early on, does indeed show yet something else moving north from Yucatan in the 180 hr. time frame. So, just to be silly......., what are the odds of this mess sticking around for say, 2 weeks longer? Maybe out of all this, we might see the "grandson of Alma" - and this same gyre will be spinning off Cristobal. We'd really have something odd to talk about!
Hey folks.....enjoy the science; how often in the first week of June, can you really claim to already be getting "Storm Punch Drunk".
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 03:25 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: hanging around the yucatan
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Quote:
several of the other globals are hinting that the disturbed weather will be there at least...
Hey all.. CMC is one thing, but NGP shows, shows.. well, it shows a very disturbed weather pattern in the Gulf as well in 132 hours. Hmm..
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 04:09 AM |
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water vapor loop
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You know when more than one model shows a chance for development it begs watching.
Canadian shouldn't be so pushed aside as it was accurate often last year at predicting things.
When looking at the water vapor loop it's obviously that there is a weakness forming in the East Gulf and if anything does form down there the door would or could be open to a more northerly.. and later northeasterly turn IF anything happened.
Way too many ifs... see what the models show tomorrow.
As for the A storms.. would like to say Bon Voyage but I only bet on sure things and nothing is sure there.
Impressed they wrote an advisory on it at all tonight.. makes you wonder. Maybe they too are wondering on the models.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 05:41 AM |
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Re: water vapor loop
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well the 00Z jumped to a low popping up on the north side of the islands out in the atlantic and move it into SE Florida in a few days... its jumping around from the last two runs... to me that means its up to something... 00 GFS not really sure whats going on with it... kinda goes quite in short range.... one thing for sure, i am impressed with that LARGE wave about to run into northern South America tomorrow... wonder if it will move up into the Caribbean later this week? Big wave
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 01:45 PM |
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Re: water vapor loop
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Quote:
well the 00Z jumped to a low popping up on the north side of the islands out in the atlantic and move it into SE Florida in a few days... its jumping around from the last two runs... to me that means its up to something... 00 GFS not really sure whats going on with it... kinda goes quite in short range.... one thing for sure, i am impressed with that LARGE wave about to run into northern South America tomorrow... wonder if it will move up into the Caribbean later this week? Big wave
I don't trust the CMC at all. Over the years it always seems to develop systems too aggressively. Although I.m sure it's picking up on something synoptically.
I think it would be great if there was a grading system for the models on past performance or maybe one already exists?
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 02:23 PM |
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Re: water vapor loop
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From what I see on the GFS both 00Z and 600Z and the CMC 00Z shows nothing close the the USA. Nor does the other model at this time.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 03:49 PM |
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Re: water vapor loop
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Quote:
From what I see on the GFS both 00Z and 600Z and the CMC 00Z shows nothing close the the USA. Nor does the other model at this time.
CMC has a closed low showing up about 6 days out. GFS doesn't. Keep in mind it's the CMC
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmc144.html
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 03:59 PM |
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Re: water vapor loop
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Quote:Quote:
From what I see on the GFS both 00Z and 600Z and the CMC 00Z shows nothing close the the USA. Nor does the other model at this time.
CMC has a closed low showing up about 6 days out. GFS doesn't. Keep in mind it's the CMC
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmc144.html
Re check the CMC graph which doesn show it.
[url=http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/index.html]
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 04:15 PM |
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Re: new spin in E Pac
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The NHC has stated this whole conglomeration across Mexico and back out into the E. Pac. is a trough, and the latest visible is indicating a new spin in the E. Pac. Looks a lot like Alma did just before she was officially designated an investigation area.
I personally don't see the W. Carribean throwing a low out toward the U. S. from this, especially if another LLC develops in E.Pac. As for the CMC the closed low it presents spawns from a weakness in the Bahamas, which as of now is not evident. So far it stands alone.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 04:28 PM |
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Re: water vapor loop
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great loop craig
i think thats a pretty impressive wave with a great twist for this time of year and where is the shear that usually blasts it away from the islands and blows them apart in june and july?
as for the canadian.. i respect it enough to think more on the matter
miami has rain today, lots of moisture, lots of pop up showers turning into big tstorms... not normal afternoon tstorms
the area is juiced up from moisture possibly from the top of arthur that blew off the top of it..
there is a weakness in the high here... could this wave make it up here in 4 or 5 days.. never occured to me the wave could play a part but that wave is tightly wound and everyone is acting like its invisible
thought it would smash into south america a few days ago.. now maybe not
the tropical discussion mentions it too
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 04:32 PM |
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Re: water vapor loop
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Quote:Quote:Quote:
From what I see on the GFS both 00Z and 600Z and the CMC 00Z shows nothing close the the USA. Nor does the other model at this time.
CMC has a closed low showing up about 6 days out. GFS doesn't. Keep in mind it's the CMC
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmc144.html
Re check the CMC graph which doesn show it.
[url=http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/index.html]
O.S. This is bordering on chat so this will be my last post regarding this before I PM.
I pulled this excerpt off the link you provided which may explain why it's not showing up. Great link by the way.
'Why aren't all the closed SLP minima on the model analyses available for phase diagram analysis?
A cyclone will not be analyzed on the phase diagrams if: 1) the cyclone is currently too close to the edge of the model domain, 2) the cyclone does not last for 24h, or 3) the cyclone has a minimum SLP > 1018mb'
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 04:49 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: water vapor loop
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It looks as if there is a little bit of a spin located within the previously strong convenction that is heading north along the eastern Yucatan coastline towards Cozumel. And yes, I can see a very definite looking spin directly west of where the Guatemala/Mexican border meets the E. Pacific. This is a very interestingly placed trough, IMO.
EDIT: Took a look on the current Dvorak image, and the E. Pac circulation shows up really well, although it doesn't appear to be a closed circulation as of yet:
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 05:15 PM |
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Centre on Vis imagery
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Visible imagery still shows a circulation centre associated with the remnants of Arthur inland over the Yucatan due south of Chilitepec. This circulation is not moving southwest as forecast, but appears rather to be moving west or just north of west. Will be interesting to see if it shunts nearer the BOC coastline, and if so whether it can kick of any convection over the BOC. The whole disturbance is still setting of some pretty intense convection over the Gulf of Honduras spreading up the eastern Yucatan coast. However, the drier air over the BOC may inhibit convection from developing widely there. As a side note, Invest 91E is up as a result of the remnants of both Alma and Arthur.
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 06:25 PM |
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Re: Centre on Vis imagery
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Took another look at the visible loop on the GOES 30-min update floater, and it seems I was delusional about the spin off the Yucatan coastline. However, it appears that on it's present course, the center of spin associated with the remains of Arthur will start skirting the BOC coastline with a few hours, and with most of the dry air dipping down on the west side of the BOC, there may be a little room for some convection development.
The circulation area in the gulf of Tehuantepec in the East Pac looks more promising, but appears to be drifting eastwards torwards land, perhaps being nudged along by the broader circulation of Arthur's remains.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 06:55 PM |
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Spawn or Sibling of Alma & Arthur could disrupt ATL development
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The consolidating LLCC in the extreme eastern Pacific has just been tagged ( Invest 91E. ) and already is wrapping itself up almost seemingly as quickly as both Alma & Arthur before it.
This feature, probably already very nearly on the cusp of being a numberable cyclone, could significantly disrupt or alter the short-term chances of any significant development over on the Caribbean side.
It goes without saying that this overall region remains a real hotbed for tropical cyclogenesis.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 07:19 PM |
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Administrative Note
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Just a reminder to all that, for the remainder of the season, comments on EASTPAC systems belong in the Other Storm Basins forum and not on the Main Page thread.
Thanks,
ED
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 09:09 PM |
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Re: Administrative Note
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Well the latest visible imagery and loops show the centre associated with Arthurs remnants approaching the coast of the BOC between Chilitepec and Ciudad Del Carmen. Little in the way of convective activity over the BOC associated with the circulation, but a small area very near the centre.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 02 2008 09:46 PM |
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Re: Administrative Note
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We had a similar monsoon trough in the area back in 2005 and we saw we happened.Lets hope its not the case this year.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 01:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Yesterday I downplayed the Bahamas reference in the CMC model because there was nothing there...however my interest was peaked a bit and note today there is at least some signs of upper level activity beginning to play there, Some of the energy there was responsible for frisky TStorms across the lower peninsula in the last couple of days. Maybe this bears watching after all.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 02:34 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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I wouldnt put much stock in anything developing in the bahamas. There is alot of high winds aloft and a upper low is forecasted to develop in a few days off Florida. Hopefully that upper low will move to the eastern gulf and give florida alot of rain!!! LOL. So far the rains in florida have been mainly over the southern half of the state and east coast. Tampa, Sarasota....very dry!!
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 03:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Climatology wouldn't favor anything developing over the Bahams this early in the season. I am nevertheless waiting that something can come out of this trough(?) across the western & central carribean - especially this time of the year.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 04:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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I don't see the whole pattern being conducive to anything in the near term actually...no sign of the big anticyclone breaking down, which will prevent any of the disturbed activity in the Carribean coming north. I agree the upper air motion across the Bahamas is not favorable. Unless the high moves NE and out to sea a bit, the p[attern will be unfavorable, IMHO.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 06:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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The wave around 32-35W and 2-15N appears to be getting a little better organised. It has had a consistently good structure but little in the way of convection. However, today has seen a weak circulation develop along the axis near 9N. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased near this circulation too, and the wave certainly has potential. GFS shows a weak low pressure area tracking just northeast of the Islands and flirting with the Bahamas in about 4 to 5 days, but cant see much other model support for this to do much as yet.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 06:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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To my untrained eyes, it loks like the gulf looks to be a bit more soupy then the last 3-4 days. Clouds are slowly creeping northward and more are forming. As you can tell, I am wishcasting for some moisture in south Louisiana!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 06:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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That is an interesting looking feature, but a bit early in the season for something to develop in that area. I'd take it as a bad omen if something did develop mid-Atlantic this early in the season. Also, the remnant circulation from Arthur can still be seen along the coast of Mexico at the SW BOC. There is still a lot of unsettled weather in that area moving toward the BOC and western GOM. Could be interesting there as the surface high centered over west central FL begins to move to the NE over the next few days.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 08:07 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Seeing as I just finished putting out my neighbors yard, a person driving by flicked a cig butt into her yard and poof fire. We need so much rain, rooting for Arthur to bring rain.
I have been reading everything, I think we are in for a year like 2004
Prepare Prepare Prepare!
I just read the outlook, am I reading it correct, is there something down bahamas way....
We still could use a good TS or Cat 1 to clear the air and make us not so suseptible to fire.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 11:18 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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There are some interesting evolutions/changes of note across the Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Camp. this evening.
First and foremost, there is evidence that the strong ridge is finally loosing its grip ove the Gulf. This can be noted in the visible imagery today. The flow over the western Gulf in particulary has been shifting into a southwesterly flow and now at almost a southerly flow.
Link (visible): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
Link (Shortwave. Not as good as the visible right now, but will surfice during nightime hours): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html
Next, the change in flow out of the southwest and south, plus the northerly progression of the bent out of shape 91L should help to build the air moisture around the BOC and southern Gulf with time. Also, there is evidence that an Upper Low is evolving in Mexico (give or take coordinates of around 19N, 97.5W)
Link (Water Vapor): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
Of course, how could we not forget about the remenants of Arthur? His broad/weak gyre has made it to the Bay of Campeechee now as can be referenced in the visible loops...even staring to show some gain some latitude now. Introduce his remenants, plus a little moisture support from old 91L and the kick may be there to spawn some redevelopment...Just something to watch for now, but overall, the pattern in the Gulf is changing.
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 03 2008 11:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Two areas of immediate interest that I see is a little area of convection in the central part of the eastern lesser antilles islands that appears to be developing a little spin to it, and a tropical wave several hundred miles east of the lesser antilles that appears to be spinning as well with a flare up of convection.
EDIT: I've taken the liberty of circling in red the areas of interest in which there either seems to be spin present or have interesting factors going for them:
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 04 2008 02:00 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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Those will not form, no model support and it's very RARE for something to spin up this early near the Lesser Antilies. July is possible though, with all the waves coming off aggressivly this early, but not just yet. I would look more at the BOC if anything were to form, very little chance. With all that monsoon moisture in place, who knows.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 04 2008 02:41 AM |
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campeche, east atlantic
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models not too enthusiastic about coughing up a system near the yucatan anymore, but they are starting to tow a good bit more moisture up with the digging trough in the western conus, with the substantial shortwaves being ejected later this week into the midwest (should be some more severe weather with those). it's a real longshot, but if something managed to reorganize in the big mess that contains the remnants of alma-arthur-91E, it might actually migrate up to the northwest or north. something to look for, with persistent low pressure in the area.. but the gulf is overall quite dry and u/a conditions are lackluster as you go north.
byett already mentioned it, out there near 9-10/36-37, way east of where you look for development in early june. just the same, there's a weak but undeniable circulation likely in the h85-70 region with this feature and intermittent convective bursts. really dry out there in general and the u/a conditions get worse the further west you go. just the same... what the heck is that thing doing out there on june 3?
two things to glance at, nothing to bite at for now.
HF 0341z04june