MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 11:45 AM |
Watching Low Off Georgia Coast
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17 July 2008 Update 4:30 PM EDT
Low near Jacksonville is now designated 96L, may have the best chance to form of all of the systems and definitely needs to be watched to see if it takes hold.
More to come later.
17 July 2008 Update 2:20 PM EDT
There is a low pressure that (96L) has moved from the Gulf to now off Jacksonville. It's probably the most interesting feature this afternoon. It may have to be watched for development over the next several days, but I don't expect too much from it.
Other than that, the Wave in East Caribbean (94L) is still a mess although recon is on its way to check it out now, and the other wave in the western Caribbean (now 95L) is too close to land to develop.
Bertha is still going strong, of course.
Overall despite these areas there really isn't anything all that threatening.
17 July 2008 Update 10 AM EDT
Not much new to report on today. The western Caribbean has a wave that might form before it gets to land, but it's not too likely. The wave in the Eastern Caribbean (94L) looks like it won't develop at all now.
After this, there really isn't much to watch, so it appears the tropics will be quiet again in the short term.
16 July 2008 Update
Bertha is moving generally east, and is away from land areas now, it will last a few more days until it starts transitioning.
The disturbance in the Gulf is most likely going to generate a great deal of rain over Florida, but the fact its so close to land and more of a mid-level system is going to negate most developmental chances. It is not expected to become tropical, but is still worth watching.
The wave east of the lesser Antilles (94L) is looking better this morning, and has the best shot of developing today. If it does not today it enters a much more hostile environment for development and probably will not. We're watching this one the closest today.
Original Update
It may be busy for July, but there is nothing really threatening for land at the moment. Although two of the systems may at some point.
This morning there is Tropical Storm Bertha, moving away from the island of Bermuda to the North Northeast. It is forecast to move generally east, but hook back south a bit before turning to the north, it is also forecast to become a Hurricane again. Bertha already has some interesting statistics.
The wave east of the Lesser Antilles (94L), is still struggling to form, but still has the potential to today or tomorrow. Some models (like the GFDL) still continue to develop it, while others have written it off. The midly favorabie upper level conditions for it are fading, so it may not form.
Chances for development are actually less today than they were yesterday.
Either way those in the lesser Antilles will want to watch it.
Also this morning an area in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico is also worth watching, at least for today. It's not a proper investigation area and conditions there are not all that favorable for development, but the close proximity to land makes it worth it to be watched.
Beyond this, another wave east of 94L may be something to watch later in the week.
Registered users may want to click here to set their location -- by setting your location (lat/long) you will soon be able to get tailored current hurricane info and statistics relative to your marked position.
Event Related Links
Lesser Antilles Radar (Metofrance)
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville Radar}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne Radar}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC Radar}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{BermudaNews}}
{{StormLinks|Bertha|02|2|2008|1|Bertha}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|3|2008|2|94L}}
{{StormLinks|96L|96|4|2008|4|96L}}
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 11:55 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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94L is still immature, obviously. It has not really developed a low level feeder system and blow off from the tstorm complex to its wnw has interferred with that to some extent. It seems to be trying to grab some from the ssw and some storms may be firing there. No question of where the llc is however (approx 12 and 44 now)...still very much a baby.
The complex in the E GOM is falling SE along a frontal trough. Surface pressures are somewhat reduced in the area and of course SST's are at their usual July values (mid 80's). There is still the remenant of an upper trough to the east, so I don't think the upper levels will favor development.
| okihabu |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 03:12 PM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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One question, what is that system due east of Bertha doing. Looks like its moving SW. Or Bertha and it going to merge?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 03:20 PM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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94L is at 12.8N and 49W....racing W near 22mph. Due to its faster forward speed last night,its losing its W wind....MLC that everyone has been watching is now weakening also...This system could be dead by later this afternoon or become better organized if it slows down some (Although I still dont think highly of this 94L).
I agree with doug on the Gulf....though conditions could become better in the next 24-36hrs to let something get organized. I would think that this area would be the 1st concern due to its prox to Florida. I wouldnt be surprised if this area becomes a storm by later Thurs or Friday..but it won't have a chance to be more than that due to it moving onshore (whatever this does or doesn't become) before the weekend. 4/10 chance
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 04:33 PM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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A little surprised not to see Bertha being upgraded to hurricane at 11. She's there, but recon isn't. The most recently published Dvorak print out of SAB is already ages old (15/1145 UTC 35.1N 63.0W T3.5/3.5) And CIMSS is still running automated Dvorak on her using the curved band method, when it probably should already be interpreting by the eye method, in addition to misplacing her actual center, so those estimates (2.5 currently (2.5!!!)) can be completely tossed out. Why NHC chose to rely on some high-res scatts that are also not up to date, and yet themselves can easily be used to argue for an advisory at or greater than 65 knots, to maintain her intensity at 60 knots, I'll never know... Betcha someone in there right now must be thinking hard whether or not to adjust this between now and 5PM, at least especially given Bertha's still relatively close proximity to Bermuda.
94L is looking better, to me. I'm still placing it a tiny bit southeast of where scott keeps placing the LLCC.. , but then again, here's yet another one where some recon wouldn't hurt. Current T numbers strongly argue for a hair-trigger upgrade to numbered TD, should just a tiny bit more organization.. particularly, organized convection, occur
Most recent T numbers for 94L from SAB:
15/1145 UTC 11.8N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 94L
15/0545 UTC 11.8N 45.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/2345 UTC 11.9N 44.2W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1745 UTC 12.1N 43.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1145 UTC 11.9N 42.0W T1.5/1.5 94L
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 04:54 PM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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Your just seeing the MLC Vortex that is desolving...but the LLC is difficult to locate the exact .1 ... I have it now near 12.7N and 49.5W as of 1230pm. Recon would be nice tomorrow if it holds its own....not sure though.I think the SAB is locked in the the MLC.
BTW Gulf ... A surface low is near Cedar Key...moving SSW slowly... A MLC (due to last nights T-Storms) is over the eastern gulf... If the LLC continues out over the eastern gulf and develops T-Storms near the center...I wouldnt be surprised if they send a recon in later tomorrow.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 06:34 PM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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Hi Scott: not too sure I agree with your assessments. 94L is pretty much where the previous post placed it. It does look better now than this a.m. and is clearly attempting to tap lower latitude moisture to support TStorm development, and that looks a little better established this P.M. Looks a little sheared, which may keep verticle development in check and contribute to its pace of development being slow or lacking...still think it is better than 50% that this moves from interesting to classified.
GOM: the NHC discussion has this nailed...difluence and interaction with frontal troughs.. the surface low remains on shore over land. I think any point of development is potentially about 150 miles off the west coast and south of Panama City if any is going to occur at all...that seems to be where all the action is now.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 06:41 PM |
Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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94L is now along 13N and 50.5W as of 230pm......at least thats where I get my info at..
Its racing around 23mph @ 280dg so just slightly N of due west.GOM weak low is aynolised near Cedar Key.... Doug you could be correct on south and west of Panama City..or could be off the coast of Clearwater tonight... just matters how far S this thing moves over the next 12-24hrs before the ridge off Florida and the Bahamas starts taking this back N towards the Panhandle.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 07:01 PM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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That area in the GOM is quite interesting and some models form a low pressure system with it. If it gets any more symetrical with some convection, it deserves to be at least tagged an invest. 94L looks to be gaining convection on the last few frames. For some odd reason this is surprisenly familiar to a storm that no models predicted to form but had formed last year. It became one of the most powerful storms in the Atlantic history! It happened almost a year ago.. I believe the NHC is doing the right thing and keeping a medium potential for development. However it's got a nice wall of shear that it should run into soon. So I guess we'll see what happens in the long run. Tropical disturbances in Africa are looking good to, no doubt, a fairly active year.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 08:13 PM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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Well now, the situation on our door step is actually getting interesting...the radar suggests broad cyclonic rotation centered somewhere off shore of Pinellas/ Pasco...the visible might indicate a reflection of that but closer to southern Pinellas...hard to tell
The mid GOM is being influenced by an upper level weakness that seems to be rotating east then NE in the next 24 hours.. will this be a spark to surface development? Without a surface low the upper feature would generate some potential for severe TStorms in any event. If there is a developing surface feature (and BP has beeen relatively low for several days) then it is very close to the land mass at present.
interesting.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 12:17 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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Eastern GOM is suddenly interesting. There's no doubt about it. Closed low pressure - at least in the low to mid levels - is now clearly establishing itself just offshore of west-central Florida, and there are some indications that something might slowly be trying to take at the surface, as pressures have been a little bit low in the area.
This is an area of low pressure that is developing along a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, along the second in a series of cold fronts which have dropped well south and pulled up somewhat stationary. At this time, the cyclonic flow of offshore showers and thunderstorms is already well evident. Should this continue, it may start to become relatively easy for surface pressures to continue to fall right there and/or the other possibility is for a pre-existing area of surface low pressure that has been onshore to get effectively, perhaps suddenly, yanked offshore.
Time-frame wise, this disturbance may not have enough time over the waters before being itself pulled back onshore, to become much more than a named storm, but as always, this is not a given.
Whether or not a tropical or subtropical cyclone actually develops, this system still has lots of potential to produce copious rains from numerous squally showers and storms. It is undoubtedly land-locked, and the Florida west coast and/or peninsula would be its quickest and easiest targets.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 12:36 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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Incredible... a tropical storm building in the GOM, and the NHC has not said a word about it.
Grant, it's not there yet, but the weather channel has picked up on it, some models have picked up on it, and it's got much better convection than 94L has. And it's right in our back yard.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 01:54 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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I'll tell ya. That eastern GOM feature is just itching to get a surface low brewing, perhaps as soon as sometime very late tonight or Wednesday.
Meanwhile, back in the central Atlantic with what is our Invest 94L, with a clear and present surface low, SAB continues to post an astounding series of T numbers for a system which hasn't been given an upgrade to TD.
Updated list:
15/2345 UTC 12.5N 51.7W T2.0/2.0 94L
15/1745 UTC 12.1N 50.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
15/1145 UTC 11.8N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 94L
15/0545 UTC 11.8N 45.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/2345 UTC 11.9N 44.2W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1745 UTC 12.1N 43.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1145 UTC 11.9N 42.0W T1.5/1.5 94L
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:09 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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I totally agree with you about 94L&especially the low next to FL in the gulf. The storms from it have gotten more intense with storms in my area eversince it formed.
| shamrock |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:27 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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You're suprised the NHC hasn't mentioned anything? I'm in Ft Myers and local weather folks who stress hurricane preparidness and hold seminars have barely even mentioned the system right off our coast. BTW, 7.4 inches of rain since saturday and judging on the radar, still counting.
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:28 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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I can clearly see some circulation on Fl west/central radar. Thunder storm activity has blossomed this evening too. I would think this would be something NHC would be very concerned about. Didn't Humberto last year go from nothing to hurricane in about 36 hours just about as close to land? I know enviromental conditions are not the same but with it this close, any reason why NHC not addressing this yet?
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:38 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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Oh darn.I wish i would have kept the article from today that said they might be headed to check out the disturbance in a recon flight,along with 94L. let me see if I can come across it again.
| shamrock |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:41 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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I think this will be a system/storm which will create nothing more than a bunch of much needed rain for FL and eventually GA. But since I am in the fishing industry and talked to some boats offshore tonight, the winds are higher than are being reported at the sporadic bouys which are still working in the Gulf. Something is definately coming together, albeit might be too close to shore to become substantial.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:43 AM |
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GOM...Close to Home
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Quote:
Didn't Humberto last year go from nothing to hurricane in about 36 hours just about as close to land?
Yes, Humberto pulled off a rapid spin up off the La and TX Coast last year.
This system has the opportunity to develop a bit more. The upper air currents are currently favorable for slight intensification. But with the trough nearby the window of opportunity is very narrow.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:49 AM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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watching with super resolution data from tampa radar (KTBW)... and like daniel posted... slight chance... but i think the trough and dry air that came over me to day... will keep it in check.. does look like the much needed rain for Florida is about to make a stop...
PS: sucks have the buoys are not working online... errr
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:52 AM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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WOW!! That area has really gone up in convection! However as I mentioned earlier, an anticyclone is over the disturbance so development should be good. Would not be surprised for this to be tagged in invest as early as tonight and late as tommorrow. 94L looks.. normal, hasn't really gotten better organized and my thoughts for a destructive storm has faded away. The chance for this to develop has really gone down, was a good hype storm though.
| shamrock |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:59 AM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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Well sat images are very impressive tonight especially in the last 6 hours, but pressures are just not falling as the thunderstorms increase. I've been watching this system for over 48 hours and seen several cyclonic spinoffs which I thought might spawn development of a tropical system. I'm actually hoping this system can sit off the west coast for a few days and help south Florida with it's drought issues. Hurricane? No way. TD? Depends, but it better get it's act together if it even wants to achieve that status. Other than that, we welcome the much needed rain for SW FL and the Big O.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 03:03 AM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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A TD or even modest TS wouldn't do much harm and sure would bring lots of RAIN, which isn't doing anyone any harm right now.
That dry air though is going to be a problem for it getting anything of substance going.....
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 03:18 AM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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I've checked the NWS Tampa latest forecast product suite and they don't have any mention of a tropical system.. Neither do any of the NHC/ TPC Offshore waters or High Seas Forecasts.
I did find this excerpt from the:
(Tuesday Noon Model Discussion)
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008
VALID JUL 15/1200 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC
MODEL TRENDS...
...UPPER LOW SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF INTO THE SOUTH...
THE 12Z NAM VERSUS LAST EVENINGS 00Z/15 NAM INITIALIZE A STRONG
MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AT THE
BEGINNING OF D1. DURING THE COURSE OF 24 HRS... THE 12Z NAM LIFTS
THIS FORMIDABLE LOW FASTER OFF TO THE NORTH IN THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ON DAY 2 OR 36 TO 60 HRS... THE 00Z NAM CATCHES UP BUT THE
12Z NAM IS STILL EAST OF THE 00Z RUN ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW AND
INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS EASTWARD TREND WITH THE 500 MB LOW TRACK CONTINUES ON
DAY 3 WITH THE 12Z NAM ON MOVING THE FEATURE UP INTO WRN GA/ERN
AL... BASICALLY SUGGESTING THE SERN RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG. NOW THE 12Z GFS IS TRENDING WITH A MORE IDENTIFIABLE
MID/UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE
ARRIVING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND GA COMPARED TO THE 00Z/15 GFS.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...UPPER LOW SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF INTO THE SOUTH...
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
FORMIDABLE/STRONGER CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA IN THE NEAR TERM AND THIS FEATURE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE THROUGH THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND OFFSHORE OF THE FL PENINSULA BUT SHOULD DELIVER
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE ON DAY 1 AND 2. BETWEEN 48 TO
60 HRS... THE UPPER LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL SLIDE
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND LIFT INTO WRN GA/ERN AL OR AROUND THE
SERN RIDGE AXIS. THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FL
NORTH INTO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ON DAY 3.
HPC IS GOING TO SUGGEST FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH LAST
NIGHTS 00Z/15 HI RES ECMWF ON THE HANDLING OF THIS MID TO UPPER
LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION OUT THROUGH 84 HRS.
***********************************
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
600 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 16/0000 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1 (Tonight thru 6 pm EDT Wednesday)
...FL/SERN U.S...
WV/MDLS SEEM IN GD AGREEMENT WITH ERN GULF MID/UPR LOW
PSTN/DVLPMENT THAT WL CONT TO PUMP DEEP TRPCL MSTR INTO/OVR THE
REGION. PWS (PWS-possible/ probable rain totals)ARE FCST TO BE AOA TWO INCHES WITH DECENT DEEP LYRD
ONSHORE FLOW INTO SWRN FL AND ACRS THE PENINSULA. WEAK BNDRY ACRS
NRN FL TO THE SERN U.S. CST WL HELP FOCUS LIFT AND CNVCTN THRU THE
PD. THERE SHLD BE A STG DIURNAL PTRN TO THE CVNCTN...BUT THE WCST (West Coast)
OF FL COULD SEE HVY AMTS EVEN ERLY IN THE MRNG (Early in the Morning!) ASSOCD WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. CNVCTN SHLD MOV ACRS FL FM W TO E DURG THE DAY...BUT MOV E
TO W INTO THE SERN U.S..
THE DEPTH OF MSTR WL EASILY SUPPORT
WDSPRD MOD/HVY RNFL AMTS WITH LCLLY VRY HVY AMTS OVR PORTIONS OF
FL. (Locally very heavy amounts over portions of FL.)
DAYS 2 AND 3... ( 6PM EDT Wednesday thru 6 PM EDT July 19th)
...GULF COAST/FLORIDA/CAROLINAS...
A MID LVL TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
GROWING MDL CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
ALONG A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT BY WED NIGHT.
SRLY/SELY H85 (5000ft) FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KTS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA AND EXTEND NEWD UP ALONG THE GA/SC COASTLINE. THIS WILL
HELP POOL PWATS (Possible/ Probable rainfall totals) WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY AND PROMOTE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALLY
VERY HVY RAINFALL.
ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND THE BNDRY... COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT MID LVL SHRTWV ENERGY SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND HENCE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENHANCED TOTALS
AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE. MANUAL QPF ESSENTIALLY
REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/00Z ECMWF.
(edits in parenthesis are by danielw)
Layman's translation of the above... If you are in an area that Flash Floods, please be prepared to move to Higher Ground when necessary~danielw
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 03:28 AM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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see that "TAFB HAS A 1013-1014MB SFC LOW ANALYZED
JUST SW OF TAMPA/ST PETE AREA AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST RADAR LOOPS. "
| shamrock |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 03:40 AM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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It's very squally offshore according to vessel reports to me, but I see this system as nothing more than a much needed rain maker for FL.
(Off-topic and inappropriate comments were removed - please review the site rules before posting.)
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 03:53 AM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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The 1013-1014mb is still about right. There is a very, very, very weak surface low/reflection of the lower to mid-level low just offshore. If anything, the surface low is just barely offshore.. given how weak it is and the less than ideal amount of time it has to do something, odds of course favor that it remains just a batch of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Interesting, but nothing yet worthy of even an Invest tag, really. Just not enough going on at the surface to justify that. However, by this time tomorrow, maybe, if it hasn't rained itself out or been snuffed out by the approaching trof from the west, it could yet become a TD. Either way, the results are similar.. tho a TD/low-end TS could also contain some strong, gusty winds.. maybe a few waterspouts and tornadoes... and the track would likely be a little different, with a TC maybe running more northerly, than northeasterly.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 04:12 AM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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Tampa Bay Vertical Wind Profiler is beginning to indicate Anticyclonic flow around 35000ft. Wind speeds are currently near 21kts, but have gained 10kts in the last hour.
While the near surface winds at 1000ft have backed from the SSW to SSE over the last hour. This is normally associated with Cyclonic Flow.
Diagram below shows Cyclonic (Counter-clockwise) flow from 1000ft to 25000ft. With Anti-Cyclonic (clockwise) flow above 30000ft.
Image courtesy of the Plymouth State Weather Center~danielw
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 11:51 AM |
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Re: Busy July Morning, Watching Bertha, East of Caribbean and Gulf
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This morning, it seems that 94L has become "better" organized. Also, the NHC has scheduled a recon later today so we should more or less get the absolute state of this disturbance at that time.
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 12:26 PM |
Re: GOM...Close to Home
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The weak low in the E GOM seems to be moving onshore this morning around the Cape Coral area. Unless something drastic happens in the next couple of hours, in the way of movement, we will just see lots of rain. Much needed heavy rain
. Our invest is looking very healthy this morning with a nice blow up of convection on top of the COC. Trying to develop some banding in the north and eastern sides. Looks to me as though it is starting to get its act together. I believe it will finally get a classification today. I also noticed last night that model support for this invest has almost been non existant on the past few runs. I havent checked them this morning though.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 01:35 PM |
Re: GOM...Close to Home
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Yep, morning satellite certainly showing 94L's previous form. No doubt that a nice circulation exists at some level. Having been fooled once already on this one, i'll tame my own exhuberance regarding this mornings appearance, and await some much welcomed recon data. Not only will this shed some light on the status quo, but more importantly contribute some good data on the upper air. It seems appearant on satellite this morning that there is also some light to moderate N.W. shear either impacting 94L, or perhaps soon to impact the system. That said, if 94L continues its fairly quick westward pace, than it may well catch up with a small upper high presently vacationing in the E. Caribbean.
The more I think about the past few days, and the curiosity of 94L not having developed when conditions appeared quite favorable, I am starting to think that perhaps the culpret was a "net" shear created by a faster low level easterly surge causing a low level center to out run any yet developed mid level. That, or perhaps the system as a whole was moving quick enough by the Easterly surge, that a greater "net" westerly shear had occured, and the system simply never quite developed its own upper anticyclone.
Hmmmm, think i'll go back and ponder some more....
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 02:46 PM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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Looks like the center of the FL low is about halfway across and moving NE. Will be interesting to see what happens if it makes it to the Atlantic.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 03:05 PM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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Just a heads up that an INVEST is up on the Noaa sat. site re: the GOM situation.
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 03:44 PM |
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Re: GOM...Close to Home
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The weak GOM low does appear to be on the move, slowly across Fl pen. Definately a heavy rain producer for Fl but could be interesting if it were to re-emerge in the atlantic. Also is it an illusion or does there appear to be some sort of circulation just off the Ga coast? Bouy reports would indicate maybe but pressures do not seem to be lowering at all. :?:
| cchsweatherman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 04:08 PM |
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WONT41 KNHC 161445
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1045 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED...
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 04:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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Well, busy days! 94L is looking better on vis imagery, with a large cyclonic envelope evident, as well as low level cloud lines indicating that a LLCC is there, approximately southeast of Barbados. Recon will be in the area within the next hour or so. Earlier microwave imagery suggests that there is also a developing circulation, but not as well defined as current vis imagery would indicate. Will be worth keeping a close eye on the Obs from Recon!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 06:28 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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Well my invest is now south of Jamaica and finally getting noticed by the NHC saying it may form before getting to C. America or Belieze.....due to its fast movement..this had a hard time developing...same with 94L. I said 3/10 chance and will just bump it up to 4/10...forward speed was the problem.
94Ls chance for development is now....if not...it should wait till it gets to the western carribean.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 06:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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I agree, I've been watching that area to, with an anticyclone right on it, there could be some development. 94L looks extremely ragged, can't even tell if there's a low.. However, it is durinal minimum. Tonight will probably be it's last chance if it hasn't made TD status by then. the GOM low is in FL and some say a new low is forming off my neck of teh woods.. Might have to check it out soon. The tropics today are active!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 16 2008 07:06 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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recon has just made the second pass on what i think looks like the center area... *note based on flight path and data... looks to be broad**.... not seen anything standing out in the data yet.
lowest pressure from center area... (appears broad)... 1011mb (~29.85 inHg)
something pretty cool is that the plane is really flying low...
Aircraft Geopotential Height is at around 144 meters (~ 472 feet)
***note Aircraft Static Air Pressure is 995.0 mb (~ 29.38 inHg)***
attached is map of flight with Funktop color from sat of the AA ... up to 19:30z
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 12:06 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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sorry... was away from the computer...
this attachment was the flight path of the recon mission. note the scale in the image... to match with the icon colors.
Transmitted: 16th day of the month
Date: July 16, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
**note the bars represent the HDOB from the flight... some may contain errors
in the image.. you can see recon looked at 3 areas durning the flight... the last one would be the one to the left side of the image... they really spent time on that area... close to the islands
Antilles Radar.. ITS IN FRENCH
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 01:25 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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IR Satellite presentation is favoring scotts potential invest although microwave image shows more organization with 94L. I'm surprised the area in the carribean hasn't been tagged already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/WATLSS85.html
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 01:39 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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I don't think satellite imagery favors impending formation of a TD/TS from EITHER of the Caribbean systems. Convection with 94L is starting to weaken yet again, although it's more together than the western Caribbean non-invest... which is totally disorganized to me.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 02:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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Agreed, they both are marginal at best. I wasn't suggesting immediate development only that the area in the carbibean looked to have more potential than 94L. Broader area same amount of low shear and pressures slightly lower.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLPRS/recent.html
While we've been preoccupied with this other activity a fairly strong wave has just popped off the coast of Africa. I don't see any of the models doing anything with this so I am probably premature in even mentioning it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 02:54 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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Quote:
Convection with 94L is starting to weaken yet again, although it's more together than the western Caribbean non-invest...which is totally disorganized to me.
Regarding 94L: a few years ago I watched you guys discuss a rectangular box near/below Cuba, wasn't it? And if storms pass through this area they go on to hit Florida?
I am curious if this 94L is in that area.
Also, could this Box Thing please be re-explained?
I tried looking it up on the Net and am getting no hits.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 03:39 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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there is no such thing.......no certain box or anything like that.. Storms go certain directions due to ridges and troughs and other things in the atmosphere to push/pull them in a direction.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 03:53 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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You are both correct. The name of the rectangular box(s) that you are referring to is the Hebert's Box. (pronounced A-bear's Box)
Photo below shows their location. Hebert proposed that a large number of storms that passed through the Eastern Hebert Box moved west and affected Florida.
The Western Hebert Box is more seasonal, if my recall is correct, it's more of a September through October area. With the storms recurving to again affect Florida. I'll try to find a link other than the wiki.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Scottsvb is also correct in regard to the atmosphere. Weathers changes more often than the News and almost as often as a wristwatch.
Some will probably argue the wristwatch theory.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 03:55 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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Quote:Quote:
Convection with 94L is starting to weaken yet again, although it's more together than the western Caribbean non-invest...which is totally disorganized to me.
Regarding 94L: a few years ago I watched you guys discuss a rectangular box near/below Cuba, wasn't it? And if storms pass through this area they go on to hit Florida?
I am curious if this 94L is in that area.
Also, could this Box Thing please be re-explained?
I tried looking it up on the Net and am getting no hits.
I think what you are talking about is the herbert box.
Here is a link to a very good article about "The Herbert Box"
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 04:42 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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94 L aswell as the other Invest ahead Seems to be Expanding out. Is this a Good or Bad sign of development for the systems?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 06:13 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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Susprised the NAVY hasn't tagged the western carb. system.. looking at IR2 Shortwave... clearly see a good low level spin going... right where new covection fired... its really close to the coast... which should keep it in check... and with every hour... the window is lesser for developement... as the wave moves west.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_COS_2km_ir2.html
94L is just going way TOO FAST right now... 20-25 mph is a moving!!!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 06:22 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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94L has been moving at 22-25mph since it was near 40W.. and thats been the main problem all along.... same with my invest...it had a small chance also nearing the windwards but was moving tooo quick..now that its slowed down some (15mph) and has great upper level support... this should be a weak T.S. when entering the Nicarauga coast later today (Thurs) ..Sometimes the NHC doesnt classify a system right when they are about to make landfall in central america it seems, but we will see this time. Right now..data and sat fixes show pressure around 1006mb and highest gust near 42mph near the convective center (11 miles away).
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 06:53 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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Lower pressure has been forming down in the southwestern Caribbean for a few days now, and with Scott's Little Wave That Could entering the picture, at the same time upper-level winds have become favorable. Time frame-wise, this whatever it becomes is easily favored to push into and across central America, but right behind it, Invest 94L might slow down around/south of Jamaica, and this region could still be rather favorable for continued genesis. It would seem that should this occur, 94L might be a little more developed, sooner, and have a chance to track more WNW to NW, which could open up the possibility of a Yucatan and then GOM concern.
In the meantime, I am not finding data supporting an estimate of 1006mb in the SW Carib, nor any ship or buoy report of a 42 mph gust. The lowest pressure reading I can find supports 1010, perhaps 1009, and winds generally 15-25 mph.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 01:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristobal Soon to Come?
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Less organized?? 94L actually looks good, I think it even found a closed low. It's well organzied and scotts wave looks greeat this morning, dunno why it hasn't been tagged. I really hope they can fly in to both these systems today, especially 94L, I don't see how it lessened in organization, lessened in size yes, but it became a small tough little critter!
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 02:24 PM |
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Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf
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Is it just me or has a closed low formed off the Georgia coast. Seems the low that was over FL has moved off shore. Its over some very warm water too. I think this is something to watch
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 03:04 PM |
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Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf
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System in the SW Carribean is about to move onshore Nicaragua later in the day....The T-Storms last night weren't completely over the center....and that's what the NHC wants before any upgrade into Depression status. I gave it a 4/10 so it was defidently close. Also to note the system that went ashore in florida yesterday....if it waited just 24hrs and went ashore today...it would of been most likely a weak tropical storm.
94L is actually looking better (circulation wise) but its not in a good area to develop until it gets near 72W...so probably by tomorrow morning into Friday afternoon. 6/10 chance.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 03:35 PM |
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Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf
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Agreed, been preaching on 94L on wunderground but there downcasting it lol. I still believe 94L has a chance along with 95L in the Carribean. 94Ls circulation was great this morning, but now it seems to be looking ragged again due to land interaction with South America. Once it passes this area, I give it another chance for formation. I believe the Hurricane Hunters are flying into these two systems, these missions should not be canceled. Shear is strong to the north (20-40 knots) so to keep them going, they HAVE to move due west! The East Coast low looks a bit interesting, reminds me of Andrea. The Euro develops it into a Hurricane after leaving the coastline, on the 12z run, it might have a weak TS. The GFS shows the low moving up the coastline into NY. So I guess we'll see what happens...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 04:57 PM |
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Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf
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think recon will find somewhat of a better system in 94L this afternoon, then they did yesterday... if NHC does not cancel that mission...
the low of jacksonville should be the next invest... its close enough for doppler scans... and storms are flaring up along this east side... wouldn't be susprised to see NOAA send in one of the P-3's within the next 24hrs.
** REMARKS: MISSION FOR 17/0600Z AND 1200Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/2200Z.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Georgia
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 05:08 PM |
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Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf
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I wouldnt waste the $$$ on recon today for 94L....wait till tomorrow when its closer to 72-74W and see if we get better consolidation of the system by morning.
| Black Pearl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 07:16 PM |
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Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf
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Navy has posted 95L and 96L.
NRL
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 08:05 PM |
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Re: Continuing to Watch Bertha, East of Caribbean and Northeast Gulf
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Both 94I and 95I now show
17/1745 UTC 13.3N 81.9W TOO WEAK 95L
17/1745 UTC 12.9N 66.1W TOO WEAK 94L
At one t ime 94I was 2.5 , don't think 94I is going to do much unless it can pull rabbit out of it's Hat.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 08:17 PM |
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Re: Bertha, East of Jacksonville, and Two Caribbean Waves But No Real Development Expected
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Here's a quick and dirty overview.
94L has likely devolved into a fast-moving wave, with strong winds at the surface, but far less of anything that resembles a closed low at the surface than it had 24-72 hours ago. It needs to slow down a bit more, and get out from the graveyard. Once it is in the central to western Caribbean, shear should be far less, and its ability to capture deep, tropical moisture far greater. It probably stands another very good chance of earning a name by the time it is south of Jamaica.
Should 94L develop, it will probably pose some threat of a WNW to NW turn. Should it stay too weak, chances are it runs right into central America.. maybe to do something once in the east pac.
95L could still organize just enough, and just soon enough, to get an upgrade. It has some banding features, and a healthy broad area of low pressure. Again, like 94L behind it, should it not do something while in the Carib, another one for the east pac to entertain doing something with.
96L (formerly the unnumbered "Invest" sitting over Florida) may actually have the best chance of doing something within the next 24 hours of all three of these. When sitting just offshore of the west coast of the state, it did indeed have something of a closed low at at the lower levels, but only barely so at the surface - far too much land interaction - and then, it just went on inland. Having been held in check by this, it continues off to the NNE, or perhaps NNW now, and is in a somewhat favorable environment to reconstitute itself into something it wanted to become while over Florida, but couldn't. Visible loops have "the look," already. Should it earn a name, places right along the coast should certainly be watching --- perhaps especially the Carolinas.