MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 10:31 PM |
Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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8:00PM EDT Update 18 July 2008
According to the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook released at 8PM EDT, The low off the Georgia coastline is forming into Tropical Depression #3 and at 11:00 PM EDT the NHC confirmed that it has become Tropical Depression # 3.
5:30PM EDT Update 18 July 2008
Bertha is once again a Hurricane, still moving quite far away from land, interestingly enough Iceland may have to deal with Extratropical Bertha at some point.
The recon once again went through the wave in the Central Caribbean (94L), and did not find a closed circulation. This shows off now and then, but doesn't actually develop. The outflow on it is good, the circulation is not. Thus it is worth watching over the next several days.
The low off the Georgia coast, (96L) has a good presentation on radar, but probably will not be upgraded until recon goes out there tomorrow if at all.
Right now it has more against it being upgraded than for it. T-numbers are too low, circulation isn't quite well formed enough (but better than the Caribbean wave). Dry air is hampering it on the Northwestern Side, and the Satellite estimates (T- Numbers) don't support it yet either. It the latest convective burst sticks it may be upgraded later tonight or tomorrow morning.
Due to the close proximity of land the South East, in Particular South and North Carolina, Georgia, and perhaps Southeast Virginia should be watching this system closely
1:30PM EDT Update 18 July 2008
Recon Aircraft is on its way to the wave in the Caribbean (94L).
A Special Disturbance statement was issued this morning for both 94L and 96L, Recon is scheduled to investigate both, and one or both of the systems may form into a depression today or tomorrow.
Chances (as of 1:30PM) for 94L: 45%, 96L: 55%
Those in the Central and Western Caribbean, Yucatan, and Western Cuba will want to keep a close eye on 94L, and those in Georgia, and both of the Carolinas (and maybe southeast Virginia) will want to watch 96L.
What do you think it will do? Forecast Lounge is open for The Caribbean Wave 94L here and the Low off Georgia 96L Here
Registered users may want to click here to set their location -- by setting your location (lat/long) you will soon be able to get tailored current hurricane info and statistics relative to your marked position that you can see on our Google Map Storm Plots.
11:45 AM EDT Update 18 July 2008
Special Disturbance statement issued for both 94L and 96L, Recon is scheduled to investigate both, and one or both of the systems may form into a depression today or tomorrow.
Chances (as of 1:30PM) for 94L: 45%, 96L: 55%
Those in the Central and Western Caribbean, Yucatan, and Western Cuba will want to keep a close eye on 94L, and those in Georgia, and both of the Carolinas (and maybe southeast Virginia) will want to watch 96L.
What do you think it will do? Forecast Lounge is open for The Caribbean Wave 94L here and the Low off Georgia 96L Here
Registered users may want to click here to set their location -- by setting your location (lat/long) you will soon be able to get tailored current hurricane info and statistics relative to your marked position that you can see on our Google Map Storm Plots.
6:30 AM EDT Update 18 July 2008
This morning remains status Quo. The wave in the Western Caribbean (95L) has moved over Nicaragua and is causing rain there, and has also kept it from developing further.
The wave in the central/Eastern Caribbean (94L) is still disorganized, but will be worth watching later as it moves away from Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles/Aruba. Most of the convection in the system is to the north of it. The system is persisting, the convection is not, and not until both do will it have a better chance to develop. Still the model projections will have us watching it into next week. (45% chance of development today)
The low off the coast of Georgia (96L) has not moved much during the night, it has basically drifted slowly to the north if anything. This morning its entraining a lot of dry air from the northwest which should keep this system weak, if it persists through the dry air it may form later, but chances are it will remain weak. It is being monitored because it is close to land. 25% chance of development today.
Tropical Storm Bertha is moving Northeast away from all land areas now at a rapid pace.
Original Update
Tonight there are a few storms in the Atlantic that could develop, but none of the systems are likely to. If it were August or September, it's very likely the entire tone of this article would be different.
Tropical Bertha is still moving out to sea and may become Extratropical within 4 days or so.
The waves in the Caribbean, neither of which are likely to develop. 95L in the West and 94L in the East.
The western wave (95L) is too close to land to develop, but should give Central America a good deal of Rainfall.
The eastern wave (94L) has some Recon Aircraft going through it, but conditions and the system itself aren't all that favorable, but still has a small chance to develop. Again if it persistently shows convection (which to this point it hasn't) then it would become worth watching, right now it is not.
The last recon plane through there still did not find anything worth upgrading to a depression.
The low off the coast of Georgia (96L) was the low in the Gulf prior to moving across Florida yesterday, it's now over the Gulf Stream and has the potential to become a depression.
The Georgia Low's current movement is slowly northward (or even northwestward) which means it may develop before nearing land in the Carolinas. Because of the close proximity to land, its somewhat less likely to develop.
The position its in, and the conditions around it are in doubt enough that people in these areas need to watch it, especially if it does form, in case rapid development occurs.
Despite this, There is only about a 33% chance of development. At the very least it would be a rain maker for parts of the Carolinas if comes onshore. And that's likely all that it will be. Be glad it is July and not late August.
Long Term Radar Recording of 96L HCWX Level 3 Radar Recording
East Caribbean (94L) Wave Chances of Development in the next 24 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--*------------------]
West Caribbean (95L) Wave Chances of Development in the next 24 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*-------------------]
Low Off Georgia Coast (96L) Chances of Development in the next 24 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*--------------]
Event Related Links
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville Radar}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne Radar}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC Radar}}
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 1
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 2
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Bertha|02|2|2008|1|Bertha}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|4|2008|2|94L}}
{{StormLinks|TD#3|03|3|2008|4|TD#3}}
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 10:47 PM |
Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast
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If this were August, Sept. , or October, I'd be a little more bullish on faster development with this low off the N. Florida coast. If steering was weaker and it could buy more time, i'd think it might be the most likely prospect for development. As for 94L, seems arc clouds shooting out to its west and northwest, and I see nothing of a circulation. That said, and including newly designated 96L, I still think that the best near term chance for any development, may come from what will be some ugly conglomeration of what remains in the W. Caribbean in the next couple of days.
Lots of sputtering systems, but no development; and yet we need to remind ourselves that this is "July". Am simply impressed at the appearant ease of so many systems even trying to spin up. Where convective consistantcy and organization has been an issue, we are seeing some pretty impressive waves, most of which are having little trouble at least trying to develop some low to mid level rotation.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 10:50 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast
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96L potentially poses the soonest threat to the CONUS. Conditions for further development aren't at all half bad, and it looks like a closed low at the surface is already taking shape. Steering currents may be a little weak right now, allowing it even more time to percolate and come together while over the warm Gulf Stream, but eventually a turn back to the NNE or N or NNW looks entirely plausible.. possibly putting the Carolinas in play for a landfalling named system.
In the very near-term, looks like 95L might still be trying to pull an 11th hour upset.
Currently, there appears to be two LLCs, within the much broader low pressure area. One of these, situated near 14.2N 83W, may becoming dominant. The other, which has been the source of tracking for purposes of assigning Dvorak T numbers and everything else, located nearer to 13.5N 82.5W, does have a nice blow up of convection right on top, but this LLCC is also not within the approximate center of the broad circulation center... and area buoy and ship reports suggest that the dominant center could be the one a little more north.
And here's a recent buoy report worth noting:
Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
2109 30.9 kts ENE ( 58 deg true )
Longer-range, Invest 94L has every reason to have those of us in the western GOM watching closely. It has managed to stay just weak enough all along to keep south of an early turn to the NW and/or recurvature. Once it is west of the Graveyard and into the central Caribbean, there's every reason to believe that it could snap together on a dime, and track WNW to NW.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 10:50 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast
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I'm not sure about development, but it looks to me like it's going to move NE away from the coast. The clouds at already moving that way: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecwv.html
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 17 2008 11:03 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast
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Quote:
I'm not sure about development, but it looks to me like it's going to move NE away from the coast. The clouds at already moving that way: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecwv.html
I've been watching the radar, and I'm not seeing that there, but I do notice what you mention on the satellite. The dry air north of it may play a factor too. Need a bit more model input first to be 80% sure.
i'm turning on a long term recording of 96L to watch this a bit closer, you can see that at Long Term Radar Recording of 96L.
The East Caribbean wave (94L) isn't out, it's just not doing anything in the near term.
Additionally:
HCWX Level 3 Radar Recording
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 02:59 AM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast
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It should get alittle tighter tomorrow and I feel it should have a good chance at being classified when recon goes out there unless it falls apart later tonight. Anyways it will move more NW when it gets better established with the midlevel flow. A weaker system will move WNW towards Belieze. Anything after 72hrs is up in the air,..as is right now since its not classified yet.
scottsvb
(post linked to a previously moved entry.)
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 12:24 PM |
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Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion)
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Here is part of the discussion from Charleston SC this morning - - are they seeing a new center definition>
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 08Z IN
REGARDS TO THE TROPICAL LOW PRES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. IT APPEARS
A NEW SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE EXPANDING SHIELD OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS TO THE E OF THE SABSOON NETWORK OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST.
THE INITIAL EDDY JUST TO THE E OF BRUNSWICK SEEMS TO BE PLAYING
OUT AND THIS NEW LOW MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OR
EVENTUALLY A FULL FLEDGED TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THIS WEEKEND GIVEN
IT/S POTENTIAL NEW FOUND LOCATION. 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE KEEN ON
THIS IDEA AS WELL WITH A 24 HOUR LOW PRES POSITION 40 TO 50 NM SE
OF CHARLESTON.
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 12:57 PM |
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Re: Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion)
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You can see the new low developing ENE of Jax out over the Gulf Stream on radar. The new low appears to be ESE of the low that is visible from the satellite loops.
weather.com loop
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 02:20 PM |
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Re: Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion)
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the joy of that weather.com site is that is you can go to International and switch to clouds and watch 94 as well.
Seems a transitional day for both Invests we are watching here.
Many similarities.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 02:48 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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I've been looking at the animated visible loop off the GA coast
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Georgia
and it looks like the LLC just scooted itself due east under the heaviest convection. It almost looks like it was "sucked in". I think if it gets lined up vertically and some distance from the coast, this could pop
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 03:16 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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The convection for this low appears to be deepening and trying to wrap around the low. The overall cloud cover is also growing. I checked the buoys, but they are not showing any corresponding increase in wind speed. It will be interesting to watch over the next day or so. Regardless, it looks like my sons birthday party at the beach is out of the picture.
Rainbow Loop
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 03:35 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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New tropical disturbance statement issued. Looks like both 94L and 96L are trying to form. Planes are supposed to investigate.
Getting interesting for sure.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 04:00 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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There can be little doubt that 96L (off the coast of Georgia) is now blowing up deep convection right on top of its LLCC. This development, given a little more of it for a little longer, should begin to drop surface pressures in the center and increase the wind speed throughout the system. A tropical depression could now form at any time today.
Track is fairly plain vanilla. Steering currents are light, but high pressure should gradually build into and along the east coast this weekend. This should allow 96L to travel generally north - along, just within, or just outside of the coasts of GA, SC and/or NC for the next few days, before probably hooking out to sea by early next week. 96L could be a slow scraper.
94L - This one has us here in Texas starting to pay a little more attention, and with very good reason. Simply put, hunters are flying back in today to determine if a tropical depression - or tropical storm - has already formed. Not much in the immediate area in the way of ship and buoy reports to compare satellite presentation with for some ground-truthing quality control, but based on satellite presentation alone, there's an awful lot of "there," there, now.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 04:22 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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Well RECON are now entering the Caribbean disturbance with the latest HDOB showing them dropping altitude as they penetrate the system. Will be interesting to see what they find. Satellite imagery indicates that the whole system is consolidating further north than it had been tracking, and now poses more of a threat to the northwestern Caribbean. As for 96L, that one too has developed markedly this morning. I think that the system could very well get classified without recon as its proximity to land means it can be more easily monitored with radar and the like. This disturbance is somewhat lopsided, with the convection on the east of the circulation - due in part to land interaction and dry air entrainment on the west.
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 04:45 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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I'm tracking the RECON mission through Google Earth. So far, nothing stands out, though there have been flight level winds in the 30-35 knot range.
Google Earth Data: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Atlantic.kmz
| cchsweatherman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 04:48 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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Bare in mind that they've been flying at about 400 feet above the surface. So, the recon is showing 30 to 35 kt. winds at the surface. If they find a closed circulation, you have Tropical Storm Cristobal.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 05:21 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
THIS STATEMENT CONCERNS TWO TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 06:42 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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Is this July 18 or Sept 18. Anyway 94L is looking more impressive. Models look to be initialized too far south. The center appears to be somewhere between 14N -15N and 71W - 72W judging from IR and last microwave pass. Also low shear environment will allow the storm to stack more vertically consequently I'm thinking some of the coldest tops are near the center, but I've been wrong before.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 07:12 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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Forecast shear will be decreasing to non existent in front of 94L in the next 5 days.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSHEARATL_12z/comploop.html
96L is ramping up also. Wondering if they will both be upgraded at the same time. That would be a 1st.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 07:13 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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I wonder how strong 96l can get? I mean its got good circualtion going and real warm water temps what are the shear value supposed to be like in 36h
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 07:18 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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I"ve been more bullish than some on 94L all along, but even today it hasn't gotten it quite together..the long Visible loop confirms the LLC remains separated from most of the convection which is now NE of it. I have a feeling the ULL to the NNW of it is causing shear over the LLC. I'm nervous about it though because of its location and if it were to "ramp up" it would pose a threat into the GOM...if it remains weak it will chug merrily into Central America.
Right now this doesn't seem to be any further along than it was two days ago when I last took a long look.
I will reduce my probability to those posted by the host about 40% (down from 50). Has the recon data been posted?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 07:23 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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see Clark's intensity forecasts at the top...looks like TS strength at max. Too much interaction with land probably to get too intense.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 07:47 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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Latest satelite pictures do show thunderstorms building to the ne of 94L and the last 2 frames it looks like they are building to the north as well. It looks like the circulation is pulling them westward towards the center. I still don't see any to the south and west side so it maybe very close to becomming a depression but not quite yet.
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 08:39 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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The pressures are falling at Station SKMG1 - off the coast of Georgia. Based on the direction of the wind, this station is on the south side of the low. The pressure is around 1012 mb.
Station SKMG1
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 09:03 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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According to a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement just issued by the NHC, the Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed center in 94L, but looking at the latest visible imagery on the NHC website, a center may be trying to form around 14.5 N, 72.5 W. It also appears that convection is trying to wrap around this center. I don't know if this really is a center or a bubbling of convection giving this illusion, but to me it looks like a center is trying to form. Thoughts?
| CANELURKER |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 10:10 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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Hi, first time, long time lurker here (Hence the name). BTW, best hurricane site on the web!
Question, 94L (according to latest recon) does not show a closed circulation, is that necessary before it can "Officially" be named a TD? Otherwise the convection is much more persistent today than it ever has been and like the previous reply the latest IR loop (last couple of frames) shows T-storms starting to wrap around an apparent center, I have seem many TDs much less impressive than this but the NHC does not want to go there yet. Also, why is this having such a hard time developing, SST's - Shear are not inhibiting it from what I can see?
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 10:22 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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If 94L continues how it is now, I would not be the least bit suprised to see the NHC classify it as early as...well...any time now!
This system is looking very healthy. The only thing in its way looks to be an upper-level low over eastern Cuba which could create some wind shear.Edit:
Buoy 42058 in the eastern Caribbean Sea has been showing a significant pressure drop throughout the day (averaging about -0.01 in/hr during the last nine or so hours), increasing wave heights (over eight feet), a wind gust to 35 knots about six hours ago, and sustained winds of about 25 knots six hours ago.
Buoy 42058: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058
Be sure to look at the historical plots.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 10:31 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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For a tropical storm to be classified, the center of circulation has to be closed. There are tropical waves that can be just as strong as tropical storms but are not classified because they are lacking a center of circulation. If the NHC classified anything that had winds meeting the requirements of classification, we'd have every strong summer storm deemed a "tropical storm."
Its having a hard time developing because it is moving so quickly. When a storm moves quickly (there are rare exceptions) it is very hard for the system to consolidate itself. For example think of boiling water. When the gas is released as the bonds in the water molecules break, the atoms expand and move around very quickly. But as soon as the temperature providing that energy is gone, the atoms slow down and consolidate back into the liquid form of water.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 10:51 PM |
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
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A few things are becoming clearer to me this evening:
1. There appears to be an upper level low positioned between 94L and 96L. Can anyone confirm this? I'm seeing a spin in over the southern Bahamas, almost exactly between the two tropical systems
2. This ULL (if I'm correct) is pulling 94L poleward, which is causing it to already move more northward than models are projecting, it appears to me.
3. The hurricane hunters are using some advanced technology to retard the circulation of 94L during the recon flights, so that they don't find a closed circulation when one is so apparent before and after the flights. Either that, or 94L is just playing games with us. I tend to favor the advanced technology concept, because it sounds cool
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 18 2008 11:46 PM |
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Advisories on 96L may be started by 11
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From the 8PM TWO.
This should just about do it.
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
Quote:
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM
THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 12:26 AM |
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Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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In my very humble opinion, I find it interesting that the NHC is classifying 96L. 94L seems to have a more well-defined center (near 14.5, -73.5), better banding and wrapping of convection, and deeper convection than 96L. Perhaps it is due to the proximity to land that the NHC wanted to go ahead and hoist the "red flag".
Take a look at these two water vapor images and see what I am talking about:
94L: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
96L: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 12:44 AM |
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Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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I tend to agree that it is interesting that NHC is classifying 96L and not 94L yet. But you have to admit there have been numerous times over the last several days that 94L would show good banding, outflow, deep convection and most everyone thought, ok this it, it finally is getting classified, but NHC held off on doing so. Then shortly after, it became very disorganized and no longer had that "look". Not saying I think that will happen this time, but I guess it does not have the "urgency" that 96L has.
One more note, last sat images shows some deep convection blowing up directly over what is probably the center of 96L. It has potential, Carolina's need to monitor it.
| jessiej |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 01:05 AM |
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Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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SFWMD has labeled 96L as Storm 03. This would probably indicate an upgrade to a TD at the 11 PM advisory.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 01:22 AM |
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Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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I'm thinking SFWMD has jumped this one. NRL is still showing 96L. Radar does show some decent circulation though, so it might be upgraded at 11pm.
Radar link: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Speaking of SFWMD... the hotlink the forum creates for SFWMD is now bad too.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 01:24 AM |
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Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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I was watching the water vapor for 94L and I kept thinking I was seeing the formation of an eye under the convection that was blowing up. You guys have taught me a lot over the years. Does anyone else see what I am seeing? and the outflow is not good, right?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 02:01 AM |
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Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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T-Numbers for "TD Three" are presently 1.5/1.5 (per SSD). They were 2.5/2.5 for 94L a couple of days ago. Granted, they've dropped back to 1.0/1.0 for 94L now... but if the NHC upgrades the system off the Carolina coastline to a TD with those T-Numbers, they're setting a curious precident. 94L has been threatening the S. American coastline, and is now threatening Cuba, so a threat to land excuse doesn't fly, in my opinion.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 02:22 AM |
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Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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T numbers, unfortunately, do not serve as clear-cut a dividing line as we humans would like them to. And, they are not always close to accurate. Just because a given system is estimated to be a certain T number that is typically associated with a numbered depression or even a named storm, just does not mean it is so. A case in point could be 94L, where it is possible that while SAB (SSD) assigned it 2.0 to 2.5, it did not in fact have a closed low at the surface (or much of one). Certainly it unraveled on approach to the Antilles.
OTOH, 96L does have a closed surface circulation with deep convection blowing up on top of it that we can be sure of. A case could be made that its winds are a little light compared to your average upgrade to TD, but this doesn't always preclude an upgrade to TD in and of itself.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 02:23 AM |
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Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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T-numbers are not the be-all, end-all here. They are most useful in the deep tropics where the observational network is sparse, at best, and where satellite is the only tool from which a forecaster has to draw. In the case of soon-to-be TD3, we have a relatively dense surface observational network and a few radars to observe the system, and they are telling us that we do indeed have a tropical depression, despite the low t-numbers. Direct observations ALWAYS trump t-numbers; not classifying TD3 due to poor t-number would be like a chaser following a tornado on the ground but the NWS not issuing a warning cause they can't see the circulation on radar.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 02:46 AM |
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Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
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well looks like the "tropical characteristics" are being achieved by 96L... banding on the east and south side of the low is looking good.
this is what i found:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032008) 20080719 0000 UTC
Click to see full text
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 30.8N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
They did upgrade at 11pm...
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 05:37 AM |
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94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew
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I had nearly written off 94L until I took a look at the wv loop. What appeared to be a system suffering from wind shear is actually a system holding it's own and presently consolidating it's convection to two areas.
Larger area is due in part to the mountains and hills on both Cuba and Hispaniola.
Look near the 14 N/ 74 W longitude area and there are presently two convective clusters. WV Loop indicates they are on opposite sides of the Center of Circulation-CoC
TD3 has consolidated nicely... unless you ae in a boat in the NE Quad. It's going to get a bit rough in that area.
| DarleneCane |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 12:36 PM |
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Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew
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What that heat map shows well is that the water under TD3 is quite cold comparively so.
The area 94 is moving into is warmer and the wave before it blew up there nicely just before going onshore.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/hh3.watl.jsmovie.html
So, that would indicate we should watch 94 to see how it does when it hits that same spot.
My question would be
The ironic part of 94 falling apart has been you can finally make out the core or where the vortex itself was and yet a lot of energy if swirling away to the north and I am wondering where that goes. It seems to be pulled north towards TD3. The ULL is sort of handing it off and relaying it north on a fast path. Moisture from 94 is already flowing north of Cuba. Where does this go? The core is going to keep going west through the Caribbean but will this development have any effect down the road?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/jsl-l.jpg
Also, some models have TD3 a bit more to the right and it would be worth remembering the cone is over land not just open sea.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html