MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 01:12 PM |
Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast
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11:15PM EDT Update 19 July 2008
Cristobal has not intensified this evening...in fact, the satellite and radar presentations look rather unhealthy with very limited convection restricted to the southeast quadrant in occasional, non-sustaining bursts. The intensity is being held at 40kts.
Tropical Strom Warning has been discontinued from the Little River inlet southward; all other warnings remain in place.
The forecast philosophy has not changed. Environmental conditions appear favorable for at least modest intensification, despite the system not availing of them. Shear is light, outflow is good, and SST are amply warm enough considering Cristobal's proximity to the Gulf Stream. In about 2 days, the steering field will begin taking on more SW to SSW vectors and Cristobal will likely be accelerated northeastward at those time ranges. The intensity forecast is still taking Cristobal to 55kts, but until we see appreciable improvement in the convective process, this may be generous. The average of the track guidance indicates a general northeast progress in route to the westerlies. This should keep the system close to the Carolina coasts, then passing seawards of the upper Mid Atlantic and southern New England areas. Nonetheless, continued monitoring of Cristobal's progress is still warranted.
John (typhoon_tip)
2:15PM EDT Update 19 July 2008
Recent reconnaissance mission has detected a 44kt flight level wind, which extrapolates to 40mph Tropical Cyclone. Cristobal was named as of 2pm.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect from south of Santee River in SC to the NC border with VA, including Pamlico Sound.
Models continue to be rather weak with development expectations, perhaps do to the proximity with land. However, at least for the next 2 days, warm SSTs combined with weak shear, and decent outflow aloft should allow for some gradual strengthening. Cristobal is moving northeast near 7 mph. Steering field, for the time being, remains rather weak. However, in 2-3 days, a trough amplifying in the Great Lakes and eventually northeastern U.S., will strengthen more SW or SSW flow aloft, and this will most like capture the tropical cyclone.
John (typhoon_tip)
********************************************************************
Original Post
Tropical Depression 3 has formed off of the Carolina Coast, a Tropical Storm Warning is up from the Santee River in South Carolina to the North Carolina / Virginia Border.
94L in the Caribbean will continue to be watched.
More to come later...
Event Related Links
Long Term Radar Recording of TD#3 HCWX Level 3 Radar Recording/TD#3
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville Radar}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne Radar}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC Radar}}
{{radarlink|ltx|Wilmington, NC Radar}}
{{radarlink|mhx|Morehead City, NC Radar}}
{{radarlink|akq|Wakefield/ Norfolk/ VA Beach, VA Radar}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Bertha|02|2|2008|1|Bertha}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|4|2008|2|94L}}
{{StormLinks|Cristobal|03|3|2008|4|Cristobal}}
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 01:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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NHC 8:00 am public advisory stated the system had been moving erratically, but it appears to me that the center has tried to redevelop a little further east closer to the deep convection. Is this possible or just one of those sat illusions? Fairly impressive band to the north/northeast about to roll on shore around NC/SC border.
| DarleneCane |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 04:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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Banding on TD 3 looks more consistent with a well organized Tropical Storm. Have seen many tropical storms that looked more like 94 yet kept TS status.
I know there are many parameters for an upgrade. It can seem confusing.
Satellite presentation has improved all day.
Good logical reason given for why the models aren't playing with it as much as 94 that they haven't dropped.
I was surprised they didn't upgrade at 11.
However, I am impressed with the burst of convective energy in 94 currently.
Which system is recon currently in? I am confused on this.
Thanks. Love the energy on this board. Great evaluations of evolving cyclones!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 04:47 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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Correct weathernet... that is a midlevel vort from last nights T-Storms.. and very good post you did. The LLC (from what I can tell) is actually just west of the convection further south near 14.5 N and 79.5W moving west. It may reform further north.. then again it may just never develop. If it does... I do agree with the direction the models take it.. towards the Yucituan. If it doesnt.. its a central american rainmaker!
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 05:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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Recon is finding some 54mph sfc winds around 94L
Please correct me if I'm reading this wrong
Should 94L posts go into the forecast lounge? I'm getting confused .
Time:
16:36:30Z
Coordinates:
16.08N 78.67W
Acft. Static Air Press:
977.6 mb (~ 28.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
278 meters (~ 912 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
1009.8 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 79° at 33 knots (From the E at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp:
19.4°C (~ 66.9°F)
Dew Pt:
19.4°C (~ 66.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 05:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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Just starting to see some high level clouds on the OBX. It's a little hard to tell, but it looks like the center is moving due north at this point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-vis.html
| Brett Addison |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 05:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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I don't understand why 94l won't develop. What kind of conditions does this storm require (35C water temp, 0 knots of wind shear, 100% humidity levels, 200 kJ cm-2 TCHP, 500m depth for 26C temp). Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for development and if this doesn't develop then something is wrong. I would think TD#3 would have less of a chance for developing then 94l given the conditions it's in. Any thoughts?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 05:15 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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94L is mostly a midlevel system...it has a weak LLC but it mainly a trough in the midlevel and models keep forecasting this to get better organized. It may or may not before C America. It has till Monday morning.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 05:30 PM |
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Administrative Note
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Just a reminder to all to review the various Forum descriptions before you post. If your post contains dialogue about projections from the various storm models, then your post belongs in the Forecast Lounge (and it will be moved to that Forum - often without explanation if we are busy). You can really assist the site Moderators on this by putting it there in the first place. I'm sure that they would appreciate your help on this 'point of emphasis' for this season.
Thanks,
ED
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 05:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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So far, SFMR measurements of the max surface winds within 94L were taken at
16:01:30Z 16.08N 76.42W and were 52 knots (59.8MPH)
94L has been getting battered around by a bit from a few different sources, but the ULL to its northwest that has been imparting quite a bit of shear is showing some indications that it is coalescing a touch more north-northwest of 94.. and may be pulling ahead (to the west) a touch faster now , which could help offer 94L another window to establish a meaningful LLCC, and ultimately a tight-enough closed surface circulation. Should and once this happens, it is almost certain that this invest would go strait to a name, skipping TD classification.
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 05:55 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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Looks like TD3 is now Cristobal in the 2:00 pm package from the NHC!
"...CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN..."
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 06:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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Yep! we have TS Cristobal... Recon is flying around right now... off of South Carolina... on first pass through center.. pressure was 1007mb and MAX FL WIND 0UTBOUND 45 KT NE QUAD 17:17:30Z... there at 1,500ft flying
Also recon is in 94L right now too... they made a pass through what i think would be the low center... there are now just east of the island of isle de san andres at 1pm cdt...
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 08:26 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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Recon seems to be finding T.S. force winds in 94L, but I gather no closed low still?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 08:34 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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yes and no... the 2pm TWO had
"A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. "
and looks like recon is heading back to the island of St. Croix... (base)
I only see one dropsonde data set... and that makes me wanna say, they couldn't close off a circulation... but will have to see..
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 09:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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The given position for the low level circulation center was 14N 78W by the Hurricane Hunter plane. I managed to spot the indicated area on satellite imagery, and it seems that since the Hunter had left the system, that there has been a blow up of convection directly over the indicated low level circulation center. I would not be suprised if it was declared a closed circulation now.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 10:25 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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I'm still not seeing a closed circulation there. There may be one trying to form, but we've seen that several times with this one. Tomorrow may tell a different story.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 10:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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agree... don't see a closed center... However a band of convection did fire up over the low... and i think it will take 12hrs or so for it to get going... the shear appears to becoming better with ever hr.... and this wave should slow down some too in movement... tonight i think we will see a big blow up of convection..
Close Up
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 11:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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A note on 94L:
Quickscat isn't picking up circulation yet. Thus I doubt it is a closed low yet. However, the convective flareup on IR is quite good, so we could see the low closing and a TD forming relatively soon, if it can hold a center together.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 19 2008 11:57 PM |
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Using QuikSCAT images
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A tip: When checking QuikSCAT, it's helpful to note the time stamp of when the pass was taken. The image linked above is from a pass taken at 7:35 AM EDT, and is no longer applicable to real-time conditions at the surface.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 12:40 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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It is worth noting that the latest shear forecasts reverse the downward trend and again increase northwesterly shear across the entire Caribbean Sea. All other factors would favor a slow intensification, however the shear may continue to hold any significant development of 94L in check for a couple of more days. Unless the movement of the wave should slow down a bit (which is possible), that would put the tropical wave very near or over the Yucatan before the windshear relaxes.
ED
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 01:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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I'm looking at SSD IR loop of 94L and noticing that the COC is intensifying and becoming more defined, with persistent convection over the COC for the last 6 hours . Further, it appears to be spinning off the northern convective shield, as a band of warmer cloud tops has now appeared between the COC and the northern convective shield. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say 94L is in the process of consolidating it's convective pattern into a TD/TS at present, and would not be surprised to see this become TD#4 at 11pm. Water vapor also shows this.
The SSMIS microwave overpass shows a definite strong convective band at the core, but no evidence of banding yet. Though we'd not normally expect that yet at this stage.
IR
Water Vapor
Microwave
| Brett Addison |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 01:39 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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I think the reason why 94L hasn't developed is because it still has too much African dust or dry air entrained in its circulation. I have also never seen such a strong tropical wave go across the entire Atlantic in favorable conditions and not develop. If this storm doesn't develop then I don't know how any storm can develop. Why can't the circulation get down to the surface? Is it the African dust and dry air impeding development?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 01:41 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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my one word answer would be the HIGH (surface flow) in the atlantic... the flow is screaming across the atlantic... from east to west...
based on tonights SATs... we could have a TD by morning... if one of those covection blobs takes over... i would think the northern one would be the place where we would find the low close off...94L
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 02:42 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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94L is one stubborn storm. Every time you figure out where the COC is, the location degrades and another pops up. The southern one I was seeing an hour ago is now gone, and in it's place is another strong core more central to the wave, as Storm Hunter mentioned. And it too is spinning off the outer convective shields.
I'm thinking, based on what I'm seeing on IR, that this system is in some ways being slowed up in its development by it's own multiple low centers refusing to consolidate. This could also be the reason recon is having problems finding a closed low.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast
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Quote:
I think the reason why 94L hasn't developed is because it still has too much African dust or dry air entrained in its circulation. I have also never seen such a strong tropical wave go across the entire Atlantic in favorable conditions and not develop. If this storm doesn't develop then I don't know how any storm can develop. Why can't the circulation get down to the surface? Is it the African dust and dry air impeding development?
Saharan dust is not the culprit, if that helps. There really is not enough evidence that this system has been contaminated by that particular form of toxicity. This system was weak originally, a weak wave that had very little momentum while east of the Windwards. It did gain though, via a favorable large scale environment, which guided good convective explosions; such that upon entering the eastern Caribbean, and despite climatology, it gained some, but at that time 95L was in the western Caribbean. That was problematic because the outflow from all that unorganized convection was creating west to northwesterly shear, and this substantially retarded growth potential. Now that 95L is removed from the field, we've seen better convection displays since, but it became very much like starting over again. Bottom line...timing of evolution of environmental factors - not including SAL (Saharan Air Layer) - are the main reasons.
It should be noted that most models do suggest development from these time points and looking forward.
John
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 04:09 AM |
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94L
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This recent satellite photo may help to explain why 94L is still... 94L and not a named or numbered system.
I was having a hard time trying to understand why it wasn't developing.
Until I saw the Mid level Low out to the NW of 94L.
Outflow from the MLL, centered between the Western tip of Cuba and the Isla de Juvidad (Isle of Youth), actually extends over the southern half of the FL Peninsula at this time. (High thin cirrus- wispy horsetail -like clouds)
The Flow skirts the NW and NE quadrants of 94L and then extends to the SE nearing the South American Coast.
I've noticed a trend of three convective towers/ centers that appear to be fighting to be the main center of convection for 94L
The dominant 'hot' tower is the green dot/ square on the left side of the main cloud. This tower has been dominant for the last two hours and is near the CoC in the loops.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 06:10 AM |
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Re: 94L
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I think everyone has been missing the fact that 94L was and is a midlevel disturbance with a broad Low at the surface where there are many vort maxs racing around the overall pattern. The system will get better defined in the NW carribean or SW Gulf once a area of T-storms persists and pressures drop.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 06:43 AM |
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Re: 94L
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it may be my eyes, but watching KLTX, it seems that Cristobal has slowed down some? Looked like when it crossed the frying pan shores, it slowed down some in its movement...
and with 94L... looks like its holding it convection like i thought it would.. would not be susprised if they called it a TD in next pkg... and when recon gets out there... a TS... looked like to me the CoC has reformed more to the northwest, then what the 00Z runs were on? time will tell... and yes daniel... that ULL has thrown me off too... we delt with ULL for the last two seasons... and i thought by now, i know what to expect...
** IR Shortwave ***
i think i see the low center around 17n 83w... well west of the convection... but looking at the overall picture.. i think a mid to upper level low is trying to form at the surface near... 18n 81w....
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 08:05 AM |
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Re: 94L
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Quote:
** IR Shortwave ***
i think i see the low center around 17n 83w... well west of the convection... but looking at the overall picture.. i think a mid to upper level low is trying to form at the surface near... 18n 81w...
I sort of buy in to the same take. The surface low is meant to be down around 15-16N, if you are using the same stuff some of the models still are, and 16N if you are following along with NRL. That is about where our old, almost, but never really quite closed-off, surface circulation has been trending. However, with that old center being a part of the much larger, elongated and potent wave... having had what could be argued to have been a benefit of the ULL imparting much fanning flow aloft... very deep convection along the trof tonight has possibly generated another surface low, altogether... or compelled the original surface low to jump a good bit NNW.. Whatever the case is, it may be closed... and now possibly in the vicinity of 17-18N, 82-83W. Other circulations almost undoubtedly still exist in the stew, but with NOAA Buoy 42057 located at 16.83N 81.50W having just had its winds flip around to the SSE and then S, while also experiencing a marked pick-up in speed, and a brand new phase of lowering pressure, the easy argument would be for a surface low center of some sort to exist to its west.
There looks to be a fairly good chance that a surface low is in the process of closing off, if it hasn't done so already. With sustained winds already blowing at and in excess of 34 knots, should NHC be able to verify to their satisfaction that this is so, it's Dolly Madison for breakfast. If the low hasn't closed off, or if they do not have enough confidence in these tentative indications, we'll probably wait around for another recon trip in there. Named, or unnamed, Yucatan vacationers are probably in for a good bit of tropical flogging.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 01:03 PM |
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Re: 94L
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This has been my thought all morning watching it seem to spin and consolidate.
A lot of stormy weather in this wave and finding it hard to believe it doesn't have a center it's closed off and wish that recon was in the system already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd-l.jpg
I know that doesn't mean there is a true center vs strong weather but this has consistently showed stronger dvorak images than Cristobal and there were reports of high gusts from the recon earlier.
If the storm forms a center high..throws off the models and they will probably pull to the right.
Beginning to show signs of outflow around the upper area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-jsl.html
Hard to believe it hasn't reached Tropical Depression status but it's not my call or our call but waiting for recon to make the call or pin the tail on the center.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 01:26 PM |
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Re: 94L
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They did it, after a hard find, they found a center and it's now named 04L NONAME on the navy site where you click all storms.
Here's the link..
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...mp;STYLE=frames
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 01:37 PM |
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Re: 94L
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EDIT:
**** Named system 04L Dolly ****
Per Allan's NRL link. Nothing at NHC yet.
EDIT 2:
Latest Dvorak shows a strong comma shape to the core. I'd guess a rating of 2.0 or 2.5 now. This developed in the last hour.
Ref: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd.jpg
--- Original post below ---
Recon is in the storm.
If you've got Google Earth, click on the "Live Recon Data in Google Earth" link here: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
(Personal PM material removed - see site rules on Personal Messages.)
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 02:19 PM |
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Re: Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast
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Vortex message is in on 04L
Storm Number 4 Pressure 1009mb
Flight level winds 50 knots
SFMR measured at surface 35 knots
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 50KT (57.5mph 92.6km/h) In Quadrant At D 1324Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 45.0KT (51.8mph 83.3km/h) *
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 02:23 PM |
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Re: 94L
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So she went from invest to T.S. Dolly overnight. Shear from the ULL has relaxed in the past 24 hrs.
24hrs ago:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8shr-8.html
Current:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
This is without a doubt the most interesting season since I started watching storms.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 02:26 PM |
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Re: Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast
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Actually, it says 05L in the recon (same as your pre-edit post).
URNT12:
P. NOAA2 05AAA INVEST OB 12 AL052008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 50 KTS E QUAD 1324Z
AL05 in the first line. If this is 05L, what is 04L Dolly?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 02:35 PM |
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Re: Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast
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Quote:
Actually, it says 05L in the recon (same as your pre-edit post).
URNT12:
P. NOAA2 05AAA INVEST OB 12 AL052008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 50 KTS E QUAD 1324Z
AL05 in the first line. If this is 05L, what is 04L Dolly?
Look at the lat/long. 05L is some recon person's fat fingers, I think.
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 02:45 PM |
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Re: 94L
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The official update should be at 11 am with Dolly,its track should be interesting. On the visible sattelite imagery anyone else see the center moving a bit NNW? Thats making me think if this Trough in Our Country now could shoot south&effect it?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 02:49 PM |
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Re: 94L
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I've thought for a couple of days that the LLC was moving more NW/NNW than anything else, so it wouldn't shock me if it were really moving NNW now. No advisory package on Dolly (yet)? What's going on!?!?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 02:56 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: 94L
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I'm not quite sure what Recon is doing. They so far have not passed anywhere close to the core of the storm. See attached screenshot from Google Earth.
Google Earth IR overlay: http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/placemarks/42735-GlobalInfraredSatelliteImages.kmz
Google Earth Recon overlay: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Recon_Data_for_the_Atlantic_Basin.kmz
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 02:58 PM |
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Re: 94L
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They DID find a vortex, though... so at the very least, they should have initiated advisories on Dolly as a Subtropical Storm, shouldn't they?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:00 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Considering data just came in from Recon they have to issue an advisory, a public discussion. These things don't write themselves. Imagine they could go with TD status but info coming in screams Storm and several sites including NRL have put up the D name..
Give them time to get it right. They aren't blogging or posting here and a lot of data needs to be shared and dispersed.
Amazing how we can follow along now days as if we are on recon.
She isn't going west by my eye and you can watch the water vapor loop for hints as to where she will go but the IR really is showing a developing storm.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
good loop and doesn't go far enough to the east to distract you looking at future ways.
also..show's what's up over the US that can affect her
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:03 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Quote:
I'm not quite sure what Recon is doing.
They so far have not passed anywhere close to the core of the storm.
See attached screenshot from Google Earth.
Sounds like a pretty good reason not to use that program. Here's a link to a direct data feed.
As for advisories not yet being up on "Dolly," NHC might have three named storms on their hands to write advisories up on all about the same time, and could be running a little behind, is all.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:03 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Bear in mind that the 11 am advisory packages have yet to come out for Cristobal and Bertha too. I'm sure things are a little hectic in the NHC right now.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:04 PM |
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Re: 94L
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True LoisCane... but given that the advisory time has arrived... I would have thought that the NHC would issue a STDS in the interim, to say "Recent reports from hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Storm Debby is forming in the northwest Caribbean Sea. A special advisory will be issued within the hour."
They've done that in the past in similar situations.
Having said that, they're just now issuing the entire Atlantic package, so maybe Dolly's advisory is just a few minutes late. NRL now has 04L.DOLLY posted but no track yet.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:08 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Bertha and Cristobal have their forecast discussions up at NHC. Not much detail on either, much less than normal. Bertha is basically non-existent discussion. Must be spending all their time on 04L's writeup.
Per the google earth data: that actually matches the data from the data direct link. The vortex recon was way SW of the satellite based IR core, and I compared it to the lat/lon in the HDOB and recon statments.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:12 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Well considering that Bertha was officially declared Extratropical with this package, it's not surprising to have a very short discussion. There's not much you can say about it that hasn't been said already.
Cristobal looks pathetic right now, too, and even though it's closer to the CONUS it's moving away from land. So all attention should be focused on the new gal in town, so to speak.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:15 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Little bit of shear still impacting the cyclone, keeping the deepest convection offset to the east of the LLCC.
"Dolly" is in a squeeze play between the ULL to its northwest and another approaching ULL from its east. It may or may not continue to be afflicted with shear all the way to its ultimate destination. On the other hand, it does have a fledgling ULH sitting above it, which could yet expand somewhat, especially with continued deep convection.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:28 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Are they going to wait and hold off and issue a special advisory package at 12? This is rather strange, even on relative short notice.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:29 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Looks to me like this thing is really getting it's act together.It also appears that it is happening at a fast pace.I think it will skip TD status and go right to TS Dolly.I also noticed the shear drop off someone else mentioned.This July is starting to remind me of July 2005,as far as activity.
| Texas Cane Tracker |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:39 PM |
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Re: 94L
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This system (Dolly) certainly appears to be much further North than the coordinates that were reported when this was classifed as 94L . Will this apparent shift to the north be reflected in the forecast track of the system, or is this simply energy displaced from the center?
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:41 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: 94L
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Well NRL has it designated as Dolly.
update: Its on NHC site now
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:43 PM |
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Re: 94L
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The marine advisory just came out. Located at 18.4N 84.2 W. Winds of 40knts, gusts to 50 knts.
Thats all so far.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:44 PM |
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Re: 94L
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NHC Tropical Storm Dolly up. Not much detail yet. Looks like they are using trac data from the old core, not the new northern core.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 03:55 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Dolly Finally...I mean Finally...made it down to the surface late last night.....and once it did...it made it more NW turn later than the GFDL model expected. Once it made it down to the surface..thunderstorm now are finally trying to fire around a better defined circulation that was once a broad LLC....earlier the disturbance was mostly in the midlevels. Dolly should move on more of a southern route towards the Yucitan and then NE Mexico. Texas isnt out of the woods yet though.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 04:01 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Quote:
Dolly Finally...I mean Finally...made it down to the surface late last night.....and once it did...it made it more NW turn later than the GFDL model expected. Once it made it down to the surface..thunderstorm now are finally trying to fire around a better defined circulation that was once a broad LLC....earlier the disturbance was mostly in the midlevels. Dolly should move on more of a southern route towards the Yucitan and then NE Mexico. Texas isnt out of the woods yet though.
I don't quite follow this logic... Dolly made a NW turn, yet it's going to take a more southern route from here on out? Why?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 04:03 PM |
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Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone
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http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html
Also... it's been following the ULL which is currenly around the West Tip of Cuba which makes you think.
Expect new models to have new tracks and remember they have watches up so there will be a 2pm locational advisory
Am thinking the first real discussion will be at 5. Think this was sort of like an Alert Upgrade vs a 11 Advisory.
Probably good as they are still getting data from recon and then they have to evaluate it and talk it over, etc.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 04:07 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone
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I've attached the NHC reported center on a IR map. It looks like they took the hurricane hunter's vortex recon of the area SW of the storm. Guess my big question is: why were they investigating down there rather than where the big convection flare up and the apparent rotational center is? Is there something I'm missing?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 04:10 PM |
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Re: Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone
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Parts of Texas are in the cone for later down the road. Only predicting TS status. Getting interesting for sure.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 04:32 PM |
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Re: Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone
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Hugh I was referencing the GFDL model which had Dolly going to LA or northeast TX....but since it never developed as fast as the GFDL...it will not make it that far north....also land interaction will keep it down some until later Monday...keeping this weaker...longer..and heading towards NE MX.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 04:33 PM |
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Re: 94L
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I'm not seeing nw motion. I think you can pick out vort center on rgb with recent flareup right over the center around 18.8N - 84W
- main convection is northeast of center giving illusion of a more northward component. I'm seeing wnw motion. I think models will verify just further north than where they are initialized now. Texas and mexico need to keep an eye on this one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 20 2008 04:34 PM |
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Recon
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From the Google maps that have been posted. It appears that Recon is flying an "X Pattern" as opposed to the usual " Delta Pattern of zig zagging.
http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/08/pdf/05-chap5-08.pdf
The NHC has fixed the Center of Tropical Storm Dolly as per the Google Map that Hugh posted on Page 2.
The location where they are able to " close off a Low pressure circulation".
In other words. They fly 4 different compass heading and have four different wind directions on those particular headings.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/files/80743-Picture2.jpg