MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 06 2008 06:35 PM |
Not Much in the Tropics Today
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Friday August 8 Update 10:15AM
The low east of the Bahamas has dissipated and there is very little to nothing going on in the tropics right now. It's likely there won't be anything to talk about until the end of next week, but it is August so watching for spin ups is still worth doing.
The latter half of August into September starts the peak of the season, so it would be wonderful if nothing occurs up through then.
For now, nothing, but watch off Africa or the mid Atlantic sometime late next week.
Original Update
With Edouard moving across Texas generating rain, we look to the rest of the tropics, and the old wave (formerly 99L) that was being watched some last week is starting to near the Bahamas, and has a small chance to develop before reaching or after crossing over Florida.
The most likely near term scenario is that it provides an extra boost of rain to the Bahamas and Central/South Florida when it crosses.
Because of the location this will be watched closely over the next few days. It currently isn't being tracked as an "Invest" area, so the usual class of models are not available for it yet.
East of Bahamas Low Development Chances in Next 24 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*------------------]
This is the only game in town in the Atlantic Basin right now.
More discussion here
Event Related Links:
{{StormCarib}}
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 06 2008 06:43 PM |
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Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas
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As one who lives in SFL, I'm glad its slow for now. Would be nice to get the rain from the wave.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 06 2008 07:53 PM |
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Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas
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If it wasn't moving along at an apparently quick clip, I'd think it might have a chance....but it looks like it's trucking along pretty quickly.
| kpost |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 06 2008 08:50 PM |
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Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas
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This is from:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 06 2008
Atlantic tropical weather discussion NHC
Quote:
FROM THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N73W
BETWEEN MAYAGUANA AND LITTLE INAGUA IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
JUST WEST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N80W DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
COASTS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE JUST
NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA. THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE
LINED UP WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 10N JUST WEST OF THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOWARD HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND POSSIBLY UNDER A NEARBY MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.
Plus if anybody with knowledge could please translate for me it would be greatly appreciated. Thanks :?:
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 06 2008 10:13 PM |
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Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas
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Kpost-The 1st sentence of the discussion relates to the convection over the eastern Bahamas. There is rotation but not at the surface. The rest of the discussion relates to other areas around the carribean.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 07 2008 02:02 AM |
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Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas
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I believe the yellow box the NHC put up says it has a chance. A low chance but a definite chance and there hasn't been a yellow box there in days so I would think that it's worth talking on and watching.l
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
The upper level low is moving to the right away from the area in the Bahamas.
The wave in the Bahamas that has traveled across the entire Atlantic as an entity is moving with the lower level
flow west. It is very possible it can develop a bit and even more so after it moves away from South Florida and the Keys it will be in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and it needs to be watched.
it's all a matter of timing, timing is everything.
A rotation can work it's way down to the surface and it looked very good on visible today.
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 07 2008 01:42 PM |
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Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas
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It seems as though this wave is just going to fizzle out. Doesnt even look like we in Florida will get an increased chance of rain at this point. The wave at 20N 57W is looking pretty good this morning. I dont know what speed it is traveling west at, but it is pretty quick. Bears watching for the time being.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 08 2008 12:41 AM |
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Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas
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Wondering what will happen when the energy from the frontal trough or remnants of the various mid-west storms gets down into the area of the wave and the upper level low around Florida.
Would seem to be there will be a lot of instability in the atmosphere tomorrow and over the weekend.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Not something you see often but a lot of things converging there.
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 08 2008 04:25 PM |
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Quiet Out There
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Is the Sahara dust (SAL) the cause for the quiet tropics? Looking at CIMSS, it looks like SAL has been blanketing the Atlantic suppressing the Cape Verde waves. Or am I wrong?
| Storm Surfer |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 08 2008 04:58 PM |
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Re: Quiet Out There
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By the looks of the visible loop, there seems to be some rotation east of the Bahamas . Near 27.48 N 72.89 W
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 08 2008 06:54 PM |
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Re: Not Much in the Tropics Today
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I see that to stormsurfer, looks very nice tight, and small. Its worth watching stranger things have happend in that area before. I belive its still 99l its stead of it disapeering i think or sorta stalled there then went under a cloke with evrything else going on around it.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 09 2008 09:15 AM |
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Wait for it...
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Notice how around Dolly time the Atlantic got that sort of drugged look (aside from Edouard squeezing in) it gets when MJO flips to positive? It never works out perfectly, but you can see that MJO negative wave advancing... just look at how the western Pacific flipped on a week or so ago, and now the central and eastern Pacific have a pretty solid line of storms and invests. Hernan went off the other day, so in seven to ten after you can expect the Atlantic to have an answer. My guess is that things will flip back on all at once later this week--maybe a line of activity will develop. Latest GFS runs keep trending in that direction. Some of the other models are also showing those subtle signs that they also see approaching activity.
Slightly unnerving side note is that it has also been the tendency (although by no means a sure thing) that the longwave pattern will start to reconfigure into one of those where a big wheelhouse ridge starts powering its way into position in the western Atlantic. Euro has a less emphatic version of this but also seems interested in pushing the ridge westward to where any storm would have a hard time sneaking out to sea without rattling some nerves. With the MJO pulse almost here I'm betting on late August giving us some of that. In a year where most of the season predictions are almost emptying the name list, you've got to think that's going to happen some anyway. The first half of this decade featured a few active years where that somehow never worked out--but that's more the exception than the norm when you finish M or later on the list.
I'll try not to be such a stranger on the site... life hasn't slowed down much for a while.
HF 0915z09august
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 09 2008 03:17 PM |
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Re: Wait for it...
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In fact GFS seems extremely aggressive with development over the next week. Let's hope that does not play out. Certainly would appear anything thay may form would have a good chance of making the trip westward. Appears to be a low pressure center coming off of Africa now, this could be the biginning.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 09 2008 05:07 PM |
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Re: Wait for it...
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'Notice how around Dolly time the Atlantic got that sort of drugged look (aside from Edouard squeezing in) it gets when MJO flips to positive? It never works out perfectly, but you can see that MJO negative wave advancing... just look at how the western Pacific flipped on a week or so ago, and now the central and eastern Pacific have a pretty solid line of storms and invests.'
HF, This phase diagram I have attached backs up your last post.
I'ts a little difficult to understand at 1st, but if you study it a minute you will see the correlation with our busy time in July and the phase we are heading into now - the blue line is August.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 10 2008 05:46 AM |
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Re: Wait for it...
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Quote:
In fact GFS seems extremely aggressive with development over the next week. Let's hope that does not play out. Certainly would appear anything thay may form would have a good chance of making the trip westward. Appears to be a low pressure center coming off of Africa now, this could be the biginning.
looking at GFS tonight and few other globals... looks like were about to see activity increase in the coming days... really susprised at how aggressive the GFS is in 120+ hrs... windward islands... wouldn't want to be in there neck of the woods on wed-fri!