MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 12:04 PM |
Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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4 PM EDT 15 August Update
The NHC's storm data files show that 92L will be classified as Tropical Storm Fay with 35 kt winds at 5 pm EDT. The full forecast package will be available within the hour.
11AM EDT 15 August Update
Still pretty much the same as this morning, remains on the verge (but not quite) organization, and may later today before nearing Hispaniola.
Also Beyond the islands, it now appears Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, Hati, Dominican Republic and south Florida and the Keys should be watching this one closely.
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar
{{radarlink|jua|San Juan, PR Radar}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Fay|06|6|2008|1|Fay}}
{{StormLinks|93L|93|7|2008|2|93L}}
8AM EDT 15 August Update
The wave near Puerto Rico (92L) still has not formed a low-level circulation, despite tons of convection, it is still generally moving toward the west and will likely have land interaction with Hati and the Dominican Republic, which is very mountainous. This likely would prevent much strengthening in the short term, or cause disruption to the system causing it to weaken . Recon aircraft will again be out there today searching for a low level circulation, which would indicate that a depression has formed, which it has about a 65% chance of doing so today.
The center is trying to form it seems, but it could be west and/or south of the Island .
Weaker systems, such as this, will tend to go further west. Those in Hati, the Dominican Republic, Southeastern Bahamas, and Eastern Cuba have the most to watch at this time.
Beyond that it really is still too early to tell, long range model runs aren't very reliable for weak systems like this.
Most turn it north before Florida, however.
Some models move it over the island land masses of the Greater Antilles, If it does go over land it would keep the system weak or cause it to fall apart, leaving less an issue for the Southeast, but cause big problems (especially in Hati) because of vast amounts of rainfall.
Check back over the weekend to find out more, especially after the system develops (if it does).
Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge, a place for shooting the breeze about the storm (including discussion about the longer range models).
5PM EDT 14 August Update
Aircraft recon has gone through the wave over/northeast of the Virgin Islands this afternoon and has determined that it still has not formed enough of a low level circulation to be considered a tropical depression, although it could become one at any time tonight or tomorrow.
Also those in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Eastern Cuba will want to watch this very closely. For those in Florida, and elsewhere check back late tomorrow or Saturday to see what happens after the storm develops.
8AM EDT 14 August Update
A low pressure area within a tropical wave east of the lesser Antilles (aka 92L) is still moving westward this morning and will likely bring rain to the Northernmost Lesser Antilles, and possibly Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Development of the system is likely ether later today or tomorrow as the system is looking much better this morning overall.
Model projections in the long run may be a bit off, but the good news is that the normally better performing models and their current trends are turning it north before the US, the bad news is that it still hasn't developed and models aren't as trustworthy usually, especially if the system moves further due west. The Bahamas will need to watch this system extremely closely, though.
In short, those in the southeast still will keep an eye on this system. It may develop today or tomorrow, and it is worth keeping an eye on. Recon aircraft will be out there later today to help determine what the system is and gather data to help future forecast model runs, so watch trends. If the convection currently associated with the storm persists a bit we could see development into a depression today, negatives preventing this include finding a stable low level circulation near convection (which may keep it from developing fully today)
More to come as it happens...
Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge, a place for shooting the breeze about the storm (including discussion about the longer range models).
Lesser Antilles Radar Mosaic
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 12:46 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Dvorak T. Numbers (The satellite estimates) are up to 1.5 this morning, approaching the range (2.0) where it could be a depression, if it continues to stick over the next few hours and Recon gets in there later, we could have a storm to track today.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 03:32 PM |
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Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way....
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Umm Yes i have. I belive it was one of those strong waves early in agust back in 2001,2002 im sorry i dont have statistics but i remeber waves where recon found near hurricane force winds, and no close low to bout. Only for it al to fall apart later that evening or the next day. Im not saying this will, but its happend before.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 03:35 PM |
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late thursday AM take
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92L has an impressive structure for an unclassified system. it does look like the continuous burst of heavy convection is tailing the surface wave/low, which will need to straighten out before the system can start really rolling. expect recon will fix a developing storm later today... maybe already fay when they get there... that ought to graze very close to the northern islands. not sure how much proximity to hispaniola will temper the development, but a steady wnw track toward the southeastern bahamas through sunday-monday looks good and has plenty of model support. from there it gets iffy. model runs since early in the week have trended further west with the cut-off low, heading it for the southern high plains and rockies, instead of the red river valley and texas. as a result the heights aren't going to rise as quickly over the midwest and mid-atlantic, with the troughiness hanging on for longer than earlier projected.
when the system gets to the bahamas and reaches the periphery of the ridge it will be in a rather flat area of upper steering and perhaps drift northward as shown on some of the models. gfs is trying to feed the system northeast and then into an upper cut-off near the mid-atlantic on the latest run. most of the globals and the hurricane models have it east of florida early next week, either waiting for some shortwave trough to dig more in response to it and whip it northeast, or for the troughiness to bypass and for ridging to slowly build in. complicating matters is the system to the east, 93L, which has shifted its emphasis southwestward to near 15/44 but is still shown by various models involving with the advancing inverted trough in the central atlantic and coming close to the east. other missing parts of the equation are feedback, i.e., the globals tend to show a weak system near the southeast, and with 93L, but will they pump the nearby mid-atlantic ridge up, and how will this affect rising heights over the continent, wave speed, etc. once 93L is clear of hispaniola, and likely developed, we will have a much better idea on intensity and maybe have a better version of the synoptic picture for the globals to chew on. model runs ought to become much more reliable over the weekend.
side note that another fairly impressive wave is now passing south of the cape verdes has another system written all over it. pretty far to the south, too.
HF 1536z14august
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 04:03 PM |
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Re: late thursday AM take
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vis satellite shows the LLC exposed to the WNW of the area of convection and passing over Anguilla heading about 275dg. I dont think they will make this a TD until the convection fires over the LLC. Winds are in excess of 40kts and it would probably bypass the TD status when this happens. I guess they could still upgrade it early if they feel they want to give out TS warnings to Puerto Rico.
Longer range is up in the air. I still follow the GFDL, and even though model trends 1 way from run to run, sometimes they jump right back to where they were predicting 24hrs ago.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 05:03 PM |
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Re: late thursday AM take
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I think we are seeing the center reform at 18N 61W. There is definitely a MLC. The center that was WNW is all but gone at this point. I cannot detect it on visible anymore. The system is consolidating. The big if at this point is land interaction
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 05:14 PM |
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Re: late thursday AM take
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Satelitte looks terrific. I expect a classification regardless. Remember dolly wasnt technically a TS while it was in the Caribean, but NHC went ahead with the classification. I expect the same here. I dont believe the dry air will effect it at all.
(Edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 05:42 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Recon is now on station. You can follow there path and data collection at this site. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 06:28 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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92L has had a well-defined and improving MLC since last night, but based on recon, buoy and ship reports, a still broad low level circulation with a couple of embedded weak, if not also transient, low level circulations.
This afternoon it is now readily apparent that even if one dominant, tight LLC is still lacking (which may or may not be the case - we will know a lot more after recon gets back in there and maybe a few more microwave passes), the MLC is so robust, so vigorous, and complete with an attendant, co-located upper-level anticyclone still building overhead, it would not be at all surprising to see an upgrade later this afternoon - and based on the winds, possibly going strait to Fay, if they close off a tight-enough, dominant LLC.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 06:29 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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I would have to say from looking at the images (and previous experience of looking at images) that 92L may very well be classified as a TS by 5pm for 2 reasons: it's proximity to land areas and the way it looks in general...it appears to be getting larger and more organized every couple of hours. I have no idea if it will stay that way, I'm just basing my statements on what satellite imagery is showing me right now.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 07:21 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Dvorak T-numbers for 92L are now 2.0 which leaves it wide open for Depression status tonight, and it's pretty likely given what recon may find out there shortly.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 07:36 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Been watching this thing take shape and I think we are about to see it take off. The inflow seems to be really taking shape in all quads and covers much of the eastern carribean.
I am seeing alot of focus on track(which is obviously on everyone's mind), but does anyone see anything stopping this thing from getting very strong other than the big islands?
Wondering how strong the storm will get.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 07:54 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Not a ton to add to HF's analysis from earlier, but I'll chime in with a few notes...
92L has the look that is typical to disturbances that race through the Caribbean, looking nice and healthy but primarily focused in the mid-levels. 92L isn't racing, though, but it isn't immediately obvious if there's a well-defined surface low and, if so, where it is in relation to the mid-level center. There is healthy diffluence aloft, largely provided by the upper low centered on the eastern end of Cuba, and a nice outflow channel to the east provided by the upper low about 29N/55W if it wants to take advantage of that. Ultimately, it will develop, the question is just of where it goes from here? There's been a fair amount of clustering in forecast tracks along or just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola; obviously, any deviation southward will greatly complicate the intensity and track forecasts. It goes without saying, but anyone from the central Gulf up the southeast coast -- particularly Florida -- needs to watch this one.
What is left of 93L is currently centered 14N/47W and is about one convective burst away from turning the NHC's "Low" development probabilities into "High" probabilities once again. It is finally starting to escape a more stable environment characterized by marginal SSTs and some mid-level dust, moving into a warmer, cleaner environment as it nears 50W. Like 92L, it has a well-defined outflow channel, this one provided by an upper low near 32N/36W. The two disturbances are far enough apart that both have a chance to develop, with 93L likely to take the Caribbean route rather than the Bahamas path that 92L looks to be headed along. We'll reevaluate this one in a couple of days.
The disturbance HF alluded to out near the Cape Verdes is likely to end up as 94L later today or tomorrow. The GFS in particular has been very aggressive in developing that system and having it cause trouble somewhere in the basin in the next couple of weeks. Just something to watch for as we head toward the peak of the season.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 08:31 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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I don't know about you guys but I live in Jacksonville, Fl and the bells are just going off in my head and well I just have a bad feeling that this system is going to be heading our way. I last remember feeling about a system coming our way was back in 2005 when TS Tammy played havoc with us and dropped alot of rain on us. Why do I see the same scenario being played out, but only this time a stronger system?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 08:37 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Sophie...I understand your feelings of "alarm bells ringing" very well. The best advice I can give you is to follow this closely, be prepared and remember...it's a pretty long way from Jacksonville or any other Florida area at this time.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 08:38 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Sophie don't jump the gun yet. There is still alot of time and many scenerios, so prepare and watch the updates. We should know more this weekend.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 08:52 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Recon did not find a closed level circulation, so it still remains a wave at this time (although it could form into a depression at any time tonight). Mostly those in the Islands all the way to Eastern Cuba and Bahamas need to watch this very closely. Anything beyond that is really too early to tell, especially since it has not yet formed.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 10:13 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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That 92L has yet to come together should be of some extra concern to those of us wondering about possible landfall locations. For now, and until things finally come together (assuming they do), it is still unpleasantly difficult for models and forecasters to get a good grip on the vigorous wave/low's's likely trajectory and possible interactions ahead. The only good news, if there is good news, is that it is not yet a tropical cyclone, which does sort of allow for the slim possibility, however increasingly unlikely, that it never does become a tropical cyclone.
Standard rules applying, a shallower, less-developed system will tend to track more often with the low-level flow. However, the most recent 92L has for the better part of 48 hours or so, also been represented by the impressive mid-level circulation, which keeps trying to reform a permanent center closer to its center, so far without much luck. Without any real clarity to all of the mumbo-jumbo, if there is any certainty, it is almost certain that locations as potentially far left as Texas and as far right as the vast blue Atlantic ocean remain in play. In a perverse way, the sooner the feature can pull it together, the better. Model runs might become a lot more dependable, and if it pulls it together strongly, perhaps all the hand wringing will be for naught as it could just hook out to sea before coming too close to land.
Right behind 92L, 93L is very close to being green-balled (reactivated). As Clark points out, just one solid convective burst might very well force NHC's hand at putting it back on their wave tracking map all colored in red. It is worth noting that when these two were both a bit closer and battling for their lives in an unfavorable atmosphere, it wasn't clear if they wouldn't just cancel each other out. No longer the case. 92 and 93 both now have more than enough breathing room -and better conditions- to become big headaches in the days to come. "93" already appears to have a broad, yet closed low either at, or just slightly above the surface, and pressures appear to be down around 1008mb.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 14 2008 11:56 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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Picking up on a major convective burst in the last few frames closer to where the alleged LLC is. System could be aligning better now. Look for persistence with new flare up. This could be the trigger for upgrade by tomorrow.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
| Rookie from 33913 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:00 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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This is my first post. I am a complete Rookie. I want to thank all of you. I love this place.
Ok now I will show you how much of a rookie I am. In this picture is this an eye or a high cloud top?
Thanks
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:03 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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Looks like an eye but it's not. You need surface pressures much lower than this to develop eyewall structure.
| Rookie from 33913 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:05 AM |
Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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Thanks Craigm
You must have posted that while I was asking the question.
(In the future, please use the Private Message capability when you want to pass on your thanks to another User.)
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:37 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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92L has to thread the needle so to speak. If it goes north or south I think it stands a good chance of developing. If it continues moving west though, it has some serious mountain ranges to contend with. Convection appears to be flaring up closer to the LLC, should be interesting tonight.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:57 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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Looks like what energy our MLC had earlier today has finally caught up with the LLC out front it looks like.You have to give the NHC the nod for holding off on a name like many of us probably would have by satellite interpetation and picked the MLC over the LLC out front.I do wonder about the due W movement and as Clark mentioned a diviation S and you might as well throw the models out and that is starting to look like a possibility,then will there be anything to note in 48hrs??The LLC (almost an eddy at times) has moved just about due W all day fading in and out of view.She is really looking better tonight than today I think becoming more compact and I think finally stacking.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:00 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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javlin, was just going to make the same comment. Here's a link that shows it:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
OTOH, its continued march due west towards the islands makes it future more in doubt.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:10 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Colleen, glad to see you're still around, Yeah, I'm a bit nervous about this system, being here on the east coast. However, the models will still change over time (the next few days) and even the pros at the HPC have low confidence in where this may end up. The Euro has a bad solution for me (taking it up the east coast). But some models have it staying offshore the east coast of Florida. This is still 4/5 days away and a lot will change, heck, this could even end up in the GOM. But it will approach the peninsula at some point early next week. Let's hope it stays out to sea.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:20 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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Convection has just exploded in the 00:45 UTC infrared image. It really seems to have shaken its previous symetry and is taking on a whole new form.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
| jessiej |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:28 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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The models seemed to have picked up onto something. They have shifted the projection way to the east in the Bahamas, and hooking away from Florida.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:58 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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The models have gone back and forth every day. Don't put any real stock into the model runs right now until it starts developing. Right now, its wait and see.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:20 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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recon just left Barbados...hopefully there will be some new info soon
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:31 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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92L is really on forecast with the GFDL and GFS...both dont expect any big development for another 24-36hrs...it may make it up to a weak storm before then, but still as I said earlier today the LLC was out infront even though most still wanted it to be in the CDO. This should show that even though it may look impressive on IR, the LLC needs to have thunderstorms near its center along with a full circular windfield. Having a center exposed will not upgrade a system, even if it has 50kt winds in squalls 150 miles from the LLC.
With this said, I dont see any major increase tonight into Friday. Sure it may still get classified if the LLC gets storms over it, and that could happen anytime, but it wont strengthen more than a weak TS by Friday night as it gets near 70W.
With the path of this, still follow the GFDL for best guidance. The run will change slightly from run to run but it has the overall best performance. First off it it becomes a stronger TS before 70W it will be furtherest east making the turn sooner. A weaker system heading near Cuba might take this more W towards the Keys and S Florida, if it becomes a strong TS before 75W then a turn NNW towards the central and northern bahamas will ensue. There is still some question on the strength of the ridge Saturday into Sunday over the eastern bahamas. Just alittle more heights will make the turn NW instead of NNW.
| TheOtherRick |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:44 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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Yeah, they need to add what actually happened so far to the animated model plots. See which model is working best.
On the Skeetobite animated plot, looks like BAMM did the best. Most of the time it puts it near Puerto Rico.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:46 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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Winds in SJU right now are out of the NW. Wouldn't that imply that any type of center is north of them? My concern is that this can stay far enough away from land thus limited weakening from land
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 04:09 AM |
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Admin Note
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Just a reminder to our newer users that projections based solely on model output belong in the Forecast Lounge. A more general discussion on model preference or continuity or model accuracy is fine if you can support your discussion with rationale. If you can't or if you are not sure, then the Forecast Lounge is a much better choice for model input dialogue.
Thanks,
ED
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 04:35 AM |
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Re: Admin Note
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Erin 1995 lived all over again the middle of next week? Well the GFS thinks so on the New Oz run. Maybe alittle stronger like Jeanne. It's (to be honest) a very plausable scenerio with the trough exiting later this weekend into early next week and getting replaced by a strong ridge from Tuesday-Friday..anything under that ridge will slide W then WNW into the Gulf.
Too many things can still happen. It could get stronger earlier before 75W and catch the trough or it could even stay weaker and move closer to cuba then approach the keys and head more W across the southern gulf later next week. We will have a better idea every 12hrs and by Sunday 12Z runs...we will have a very good idea on what is happening.
This is why we all love trying to forecast the evolvement of Tropcial systems and weather in general. !!
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 05:45 AM |
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Re: Admin Note
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It appers to me that we have an elipitical area low pressure slanted sw to ne with the lowest pressure south of puerto rico. It seems to be trying to consolidate off the islands south east coast. with strong convection meeting from the SW NE and SE. The Nw part semed to hit the mountian and dive south west meeting up with qaudrent below it. Id guess the center will consolidate south of the island maby stair step around it to the north coast of hati? or right into it. I think the blow up on the northern part of the island might be the mid low cut off on its own.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 06:58 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Looking at late night radar from San Juan and nearby surface observations, there appears to be a broad and weak surface circulation near or just north of the NE tip of Puerto Rico (as of 0600 UTC/2 a EDT). Base reflectivity radar scans suggest that the system remains poorly organized but does show trends toward organization, with a new mid-level vortex about 5000 - 8000 ft up forming on the NE tip of Puerto Rico near the surface circulation. If this continues and is not significantly hindered by land, it's possible that we are watching the formative stages of our sixth tropical depression and storm of the season.
Puerto Rico doesn't have the history that Hispaniola does as a tropical storm graveyard but it does have some fairly significant peaks in the middle of the island. It won't kill the disturbance but it could keep it from sufficiently organizing to let Hispaniola do a number on the disturbance. Overall, 92L is not quite as far north as I thought it might be earlier and that brings Hispaniola into the picture for changing the ballgame entirely. Ultimately, however, until it gets past Puerto Rico, I hesitate to make any significant calls here as the center can and will likely jump and reform a bit due to convective bursts and the like over the next day.
Some of the late night model runs have shifted west from the earlier ones that had shifted east, so given that plus the landmass uncertainty in the short term, now is as good of a time as any to reiterate to not take any one model run as truth. There will be fluctuations back and forth, particularly as models get a better handle on the upper level pattern (and blocking situation setting up in the western half of the US) that will steer 92L to wherever it is going to go. Nothing has changed from earlier that all from the central Gulf all the way to the southeast coast, Florida in particular, need to carefully watch the evolution of this storm over the next few days. First off, let's see what it does in the Greater Antilles -- and I pray that casualties in Hispaniola (and elsewhere) are minimized from the flooding that is likely to ensue.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:20 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Here is a link to the local Radar on the Island of PR
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
It looks like the center has moved on-shore.
Does anyone else see this?
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:31 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Thats the problem with this system it does not have a closed center at the surface yet, hence no upgrade. Many mid level vortices. Weather channel described broad center of circulation skirting the north coast of PR this morning but, was mentioned without conviction. If they are correct and this diffuse center can avoid the mountains of Hispaniola and stay over open water things could get interesting as the environment improves.
| cchsweatherman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:36 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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The latest QuikSCAT image for Invest 92L shows a closed surface circulation either on the northern coast of Puerto Rico or west of the island. This is the final piece that it has been missing. Still don't know if this will be enough to classify this as Tropical Depression 6 at 11, but we will have to wait and see.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:41 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Dvorak numbers up to T2.5 on 92L. If indeed the quikscat is right, it might even be upgraded right away to Faye.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:42 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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It wont be classified till probably later Saturday afternoon.But it does have a chance with them numbers of 2.5 before it reaches Hisaniola. Land interaction is the problem. It may not even become a storm until it gets north of Cuba or even skim just south of there. Just matters where the center forms or reforms from the trough.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:51 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Well we will begin to see how much "heart" this system has. It is not beyond possibility that a COC may take hold SW of the island. There is much debris interferring with a good look at the visible sat. images s it is hard to tell, but structurally it is possible to see banding and the greater part of the convection south and west of PR. Convection will obviously lead to lowering of pressures. Not saying this is happenning, but it is not uncommon for re-formation in weak systems to occur.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:54 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Quote:
Dvorak numbers up to T2.5 on 92L. If indeed the quikscat is right, it might even be upgraded right away to Faye.
That estimate is also for a point South the western side of Puerto Rico, which is possible too, I figure. Interesting at least.
17.5N 67.2W
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 12:55 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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The radar presentation from PR seems to indicate that the coc, if there is one, is just west of the island this morning. Surface wind observations indicate that also. Still, the surface winds remain rather light.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:10 PM |
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93L???
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Navy just put up 93L!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:11 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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what are the chances the strom hits Florida? If i had to guess the center is north of Puerto Rico and most storms this time of year go near Florida.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:14 PM |
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Re: 93L???
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Radar would seem to indicate that the majority of the convective activity is on the southern side of the envelope. Interacation with PR is likely inhibiting much development taking place to the north of the island. This will likely remain the same as the disturbance approaches the DR and Haiti. With surface reports and radar suggesting that if there is a COC it is to the west or west-southwest of PR, then the chance for development is likely to be shortlived in the near term as this centre would be tracking across the terrain of Hispaniola. The other possibility of course is for a COC to form elsewhere within the larger envelope - entirely possible as the system is still in its formative stages.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:20 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Quote:
what are the chances the strom hits Florida? If i had to guess the center is north of Puerto Rico and most storms this time of year go near Florida.
Pretty low right now (but it could change one way or the other later), but that's what the model graphics are for. Look on the main page under 92L.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:24 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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I think the center is at 18.2 north does anyone agree.?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:29 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Also, until there is a definite, sustained closed center, won't the models be somewhat suspect since the initialization is a bit indefinite?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:31 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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Quote:
Also, until there is a definite, sustained closed center, won't the models be somewhat suspect since the initialization is a bit indefinite?
Exactly, that is why they aren't the most reliable until the system actually develops.
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:34 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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I know the "center" is all over the place right now but the last couple of frames of Vis/Ir Sat loops shows a deep blow up of convection just to the NW of PR and NE of DR. Also the last couple of frames on the PR radar show hints at rotation at that exact location, could this be the forming of the llc and if so I would think this to be worse case scenario as far as intensity b/c it would keep center over water?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:37 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
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look at the convection firing up at 18 north does anyone think this is the center finally forming. I also think once the NHC finds the center it will be a strong tropical storm based on the size and convection of the storm.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 01:58 PM |
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Re: 93L???
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I was just about to post the same sentiments, as did Rich. Basically in 92L's formative stage, it is problematic in cases involving the interaction with land - specifically high terrain, for inflow to not be entirely interupted. Where a tighter more developed core might simply be destroyed altogether, or perhaps jump and reform elsewhere, this is a case where a less organized and broad low is trying to consolodate. Perhaps this goes to the point that we really have quite a broad surface circulation, unlike some other smaller disturbances. Even if 92L were to be upgraded to a tropical depression at this time, one would have a difficult time claiming that the center of the depression is located at....... If pressed to do so, would practically say the center of the depression "was Puerto Rico" - and thus not too scientific.
Until the LLC either fills or gets destroyed by fully moving over land, than we may not realize the next stage of development until the system has both the space and inflow to finally vertically establish itself. Remember, there are large envelope disturbances and waves that in time turn into large and very formidable hurricanes, and others because of their overall size and organization ( given proper conditions to develop ) never really consolodate at all. Smaller tropical cyclones can whip up quicker, deepen faster and perhaps more likely to be severely disrupted by light shear, land, and other factors. I believe we are dealing with a system that is simply broad enough to need the "real estate" and time to finally get its act together. If this in fact occurs in a day or two, and if south of the Greater Antilles, than the models will simply start all over and the potential threat will then be a great deal more clear than it is right now. At this time, I think ( with not a ton of confidence ) that the majority of the remaining circulation will be south of Hispanola rather than north of it.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 02:54 PM |
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92L center
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I think the center is now west of Puerto Rico and I think its starting to move WNW or due north of west. Does anyone else see what I am seeing? Or is it an Illusion?
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:08 PM |
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Re: 92L center
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I personally see what appears as a well organized Tropical Wave about to smack into the "Great Wall Of China". And after impacting with Hispanola, may very possibly ( I think probably ) finally consolodate and become better defined as a depression or storm. It would'nt surprise me if this occured on either north or south coast of the island - could be either. This is a big tropical disturbance soon to be interacting with a big and high elevation land mass. Thereafter, I do not believe Cuba will be nearly as much a hinderance in its future development or potential later possible impacts on where this system may eventually impact. Given this systems history, I would be quite surprised if "now", at this time, it were to suddenly consolodate quickly and suddenly develop and more organized vertically stacked core. :?:
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:17 PM |
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Re: 92L center
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It has been extremely difficult to locate the very broad center with all of the huge flare ups in the mid/upper levels.... However, based on the radar out of PR, and from the visible sat. it looks as though the center is just about to move off of the NW tip of PR. I would expect that this is where the next blow up of convection will be as we now have almost no shear to hamper the vertical lift. We will need to see if it continues more westerly which would run it aground in Hisp. or whether it continues to skirt just to the north of the islands as it has been doing.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:18 PM |
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Re: 92L center
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This is bringing back memories of Edouard I think, 2006 maybe, struggled to get its act together, and at the last moment gets upto almost hurricane strength. Then it hit a 12,000 ft peak on the edge of Hispanola, severely disrupting its core. Should be interesting to see if this thing will consolidate on either side of the island vs. right over top of it.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:22 PM |
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Re: 92L center
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What are the odds the center could be south Puerto Rico. Untill we get a center to 92L we can't say for sure where 92L will go. To me all these mdels are inaccurate and should not be taken seriously.
| follydude |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:26 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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from one rookie to another, i'd say it's a cloud top.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:32 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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We're now recording the Dominican Republic Radar image Here.
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:47 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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New recon is in the air and heading for the storm. Currently just south of Martinique heading northwest towards our Fay want to be...
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 03:52 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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The satellite presentation has been quite impressive over the past couple of days. I have been quite surprised that the NHC hasn't upgraded this system past a wave since it has, at times, looked more like a strong tropical storm on satellite. It's the whole issue of finding that closed llc with thunderstorms actually wrapping themselves up around it. What has been happening is that, while there has been a closed llc at times, the mlc with all of the convection has been behind it and trying to catch up. Therefore keeping this away for "Tropical Cyclone" status. By Sunday, we will have a much clearer picture of what this storm will do.
I can't wait until Sunday
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 04:28 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
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remember a TD needs a well defined circulation and thunderstorms near its center. Yesterday the LLC was exposed to the WNW of the mass-thunderstorm complex. Today the center is still isnt well-defined but appears to be nearing the eastern tip of the DR. Its hard to tell the exact placement of the center. Recon hopefully will get a fix before it goes over land.
Remember its not how the system looks on IR and sometimes even on radar... if there is no well-defined center (LLC) then it wont be upgraded no matter how it looks.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 04:40 PM |
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What should Floridians be on the lookout for?
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Hi,
Please forgive the primitive question, but what should we, in Florida, be on the lookout for exactly? Could this system conceivably turn into a powerful tropical storm or even hurricane and, if yes, how much warning time would we get?
I am asking this because this system is getting closer and closer without looking like its very organized. Could it literally organize overnight and show up in Florida as a hurricane with very little warning time?
Thanks,
VS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 04:42 PM |
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Re: 92L center
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Quote:
What are the odds the center could be south Puerto Rico. Untill we get a center to 92L we can't say for sure where 92L will go. To me all these mdels are inaccurate and should not be taken seriously.
Think you mean Chris 2006
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 04:45 PM |
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Re: 92L center
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My apologies I was responding to someone else on Page 3 who compared this with edouard of 2006. There was ernesto
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 05:13 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Best I can tell, based on surface and buoys obs, as well as radar loops, the weak center of 92's broad circulation may be on the eastern tip of Haiti, and about to pass along the southern half of the island.. possibly skirting the south coast. There are no longer any obs suggesting that a respectable llc is north of the island. Most likely, we have been seeing a continuation of the past several day's worth of transient LLC formations and reformations within the much broader surface circulation...
And some important distinctions between prior days and this afternoon - the broader surface circulation isn't nearly as broad, now. Also, the possible surface center at the eastern tip of DR/Haiti would be much more co-located with the MLC and right about under the deepest thunderstorms.
Unless the current recon mission finds otherwise, surface observations suggest that the winds really do not yet come close enough to supporting an upgrade to a named storm at this time - and especially considering that the Low is about to travel over some exceedingly high hills and mountains, any appreciable increase in intensity from here is unlikely until it fully jumps these hurdles one way or another (crosses the island, center reformations, scoots to the south or north).
As a precautionary reminder, 92L continues to be very challenging for models to forecast. Until a low level center is fully established, and now also until 92 gets across this island, focusing on the model runs, while sometimes instructional if you know what you are doing, is still largely fool's bait.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 05:37 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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i think at 5pm tonight we will have a tropical depression for sure and possibly a storm does anyone one else agree? I think the center of the storm is off the coast of Domincan Republic based on radar.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 05:42 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Tad off topic but models going crazy showing west now and the chances of this entering the Eastern GoM are much higher. CMC and GFS directly over Tampa and some towards the panhandle/Mississippi.
But, how can this survive with land interaction it will be encountering soon?
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 05:47 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Ive been leaning towards a southern scenario scince yesterday when the LLCC was west anigulla when all the convection was NE. and late last night when the heavisest convection was south of purto rico. in last nights IR 30 image loop length from http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ website you could see the midlevel circulation come out of the mas of storms from yesterdays blow up and head north of purto rico trying reform early this morning. But it was LLCC that went south that at night fall exploded as it aprroched purto rico from the E to ESE and appeared to step around the island completely insted of crosinng it, and did that bye going south at one time heading south west for a moment . At that time the mid level circualtion north of the islands kept true and started refiring ahead of the low, the low being a broad area ancompinsing at least 150 miles or more s or sw into the carribean. The possibilitie i belive is that by seperating connection with the mid low through process of crossing purto rico the llcc finally grabbed something, and thats what we see now. i wonder now if the llcc going into hati dies does the mid level come back north, or reform south off the south coast near the troughinies.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 05:56 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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THere is theorie and has merrit, the Whole N NW slanted to SE coast of island of hati is a plain and its not the area where there are 10,000 fott mountian cliifs ect that in the s and SW part if the storm sticks to N coast it could continue to organize during the passage or at least play a stale mate of sorts
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 06:02 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Isn't recon currently in the system? Anyone have any early indications if they found that elusive west wind.
Would appear that the perhaps the best effort at a LLC I have seen with 92L may be just about to enter the eastern tip of DR.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 06:07 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Right now alot can happen with this.. mostly due to land-interaction. Reason this is forecasted to move more W is cause of a weak system. It probably will eigther stay weak over Cuba or just south of there and get better organized before the turn north on Sunday-Monday timeframe.
Although I always say use the GFDL-GFS-ECMWF for guidance, the GFDL on this 12z run seems off slightly during the first 24hrs as it takes it SW for 18hrs around the island...(thats not going to happen). I do think it will move along the S coast of Cuba...how strong it gets and where and how much of a turn N or NW is still a debate and wont know till it happens.
scottsvb
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 06:13 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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it may be a center reformation south of Hispaniola later tonight..but I think the GFDL has bad data for the first 24hrs. It will stay weak until Sunday-Monday.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 06:26 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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If I weren't sitting in Delray Beach Florida, I'd say what an interesting system to watch. I note that more of the models are trending west, but I agree "garbage in/garbage out".
| LIWPB |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 07:17 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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I'm here in West Palm Beach and am keeping a watchful eye. Looking at some of the latest loops however,
it appears to my untrained eye that the entire wave is drifting SW. Would appreciate any feedback from
the mets. Thanks in advance
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 07:51 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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It looks to me like the system is moving due West which may give it a chance to consolidate south of Cuba. It will have to get some distance from Dominica before any significant development occurs. The farther West and South that this system moves, the more likely it will have an effect on Florida or farther West along the Gulf coast. It's definitely worthy of our constant monitoring. There is a convection flare up just East of Turks and Caicos this afternoon within the broader circulation field, but the more concentrated convection remains near the DR for now.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 07:53 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Quote:
I'm here in West Palm Beach and am keeping a watchful eye. Looking at some of the latest loops however,
it appears to my untrained eye that the entire wave is drifting SW. Would appreciate any feedback from
the mets. Thanks in advance
I am no met. However, the infrared images can be deceiving since they just translate cloud temperatures within a certain range and can make a storm appear to be moving in one direction when the center really isn't (if the clouds at the center are in the same temp range as others in the system). To me, a better indicator of direction of the center comes from the visible satellite imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
To my untrained eye, it appears that the center of the circulation, such as it is, is heading almost due west, even though some of the heavier convection is indeed moving off to the SW..
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 07:59 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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This wave is not going to go west much longer and it won't be a wave much longer. It should be Fay by Five according to recon info.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
There is no way this storm is going that far west, it will begin to follow the swirl to it's wnw which is going north of west and bend wnw soon and with the front there ... Fay is not going to stay and play in the Carib.
And, it is developing big bands on the north and south and as it strengthens it will feel the pull of the troughs to the north.
Miami TV is breaking in with updates to stay vigilant without panic and think over plans. Miami Dade had a live press conference to update people going into the weekend with proper info and reiterated they are waiting for an upgrade from NHC when they find the center.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 08:02 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Under the circumstances I think this can only be tracked by radar, and that still leaves a lot to be desired as there does not appear to be any actual true LLCoC. My best guess is continued movement parallel to the northern coast but whatever center there is, is over land. Land is really hurting development right now.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 08:06 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Quote:
This wave is not going to go west much longer and it won't be a wave much longer. It should be Fay by Five according to recon info. There is no way this storm is going that far west, it will begin to follow the swirl to it's wnw which is going north of west and bend wnw soon and with the front there ... Fay is not going to stay and play in the Carib.
And, it is developing big bands on the north and south and as it strengthens it will feel the pull of the troughs to the north.
That may be the case in the near term with the system traversing the spine of Cuba. It's still too early to tell until there is a persistent, well defined CoC.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 08:12 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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we have Fay
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 08:12 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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There is a plane in the middle of 92L now. Here is some dropsonde data that is about 30mins old from the Mona passage:
Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 19:43Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area that is described by the identifier as a wave (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 14
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 15th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 18.1N 68.4W
Location: 101 miles (163 km) to the ESE (105°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Marsden Square: 043 (About)
Level
Geo. Height
Air Temp.
Dew Point
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1010mb (29.83 inHg)
Sea Level (Surface)
25.4°C (77.7°F)
24.6°C (76.3°F)
Unavailable
1000mb
91m (299 ft)
24.8°C (76.6°F)
24.2°C (75.6°F)
180° (from the S)
36 knots (41 mph)
925mb
773m (2,536 ft)
20.6°C (69.1°F)
20.6°C (69.1°F)
190° (from the S)
37 knots (43 mph)
850mb
1,504m (4,934 ft)
17.8°C (64.0°F)
17.8°C (64.0°F)
200° (from the SSW)
32 knots (37 mph)
700mb
3,147m (10,325 ft)
8.8°C (47.8°F)
5.4°C (41.7°F)
235° (from the SW)
23 knots (26 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:30Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Release Location: 18.08N 68.44W
Release Time: 19:30:46Z
Splash Location: 18.12N 68.42W
Splash Time: 19:35:33Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 185° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 36 knots (41 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 28 knots (32 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 670mb to 1009mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 167 gpm - 17 gpm (548 geo. feet - 56 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 36 knots (41 mph)
Height of the last reported wind: 17 geopotential meters
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level
Air Temperature
Dew Point
1010mb (Surface)
25.4°C (77.7°F)
24.6°C (76.3°F)
1003mb
25.0°C (77.0°F)
24.5°C (76.1°F)
929mb
20.8°C (69.4°F)
20.8°C (69.4°F)
751mb
13.0°C (55.4°F)
13.0°C (55.4°F)
686mb
8.0°C (46.4°F)
4.1°C (39.4°F)
670mb
6.8°C (44.2°F)
6.5°C (43.7°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1010mb (Surface)
Unavailable
1009mb
185° (from the S)
33 knots (38 mph)
1001mb
180° (from the S)
36 knots (41 mph)
943mb
190° (from the S)
34 knots (39 mph)
904mb
190° (from the S)
38 knots (44 mph)
869mb
185° (from the S)
31 knots (36 mph)
839mb
205° (from the SSW)
31 knots (36 mph)
781mb
190° (from the S)
26 knots (30 mph)
764mb
205° (from the SSW)
19 knots (22 mph)
732mb
240° (from the WSW)
24 knots (28 mph)
670mb
235° (from the SW)
28 knots (32 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
---
Dropsonde Diagram:
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 08:25 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Agreed.... we have Fay...
The more this gets its act together the more quickly the turn to the north will commence. Slight jogs to the NW into the direction of the trough are now more likely than ever as the storm builds in structure. Land of course is a hinderance, (which is what she is over now) but there is a lot of warm water out there so everyone from the Gulf to the SE Coast still needs to watch this one.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 08:27 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Well... the ? is about to be answered... do we have Fay or a TD?
One Navy site has 06L.NONAME and the other has 06.FAY.
The NHC noaa tropical run suite has:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC
So what is it? guess will find out in a min or two. By the way i am very suprised they upgraded over land... must be the Doppler Data and the winds offshore that made them UPGRADE? I thought they were waiting for it to close off a center... from what i can tell... i don't see a clear sign of one... but it may be there over the mountains?
UPDATE: looks like 5-day has florida in the cone.. crossing florida moving NE
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 08:40 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Some Fay stats are up...looks like it's going up the middle of FL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 08:41 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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NHC has Fay up, they are showing TS up the west coast of Florida. However, the entire state and a lot of the SE is in the 5 day cone. My guess is after they initialize it, they will set it a little further west.
Don't really want a storm, but it would be nice if Lake O got some water.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 08:46 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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so it was a TS as it made landfall? moving west into the mona passage
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
hmm.... so "Fay" already made one landfall?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 09:25 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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If the forecast track verifies, the center would be near Punta Gorda on Tuesday afternoon as a strong TS or minimal hurricane. Given the record of the intensity forecasts so far this year and the very warm eastern Gulf waters, I'm a bit wary that Fay may be much stronger than currently forecast. I'll be on high alert for the duration, now.
| AdvAutoBob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 09:44 PM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Quote:
If the forecast track verifies, the center would be near Punta Gorda on Tuesday afternoon as a strong TS or minimal hurricane. Given the record of the intensity forecasts so far this year and the very warm eastern Gulf waters, I'm a bit wary that Fay may be much stronger than currently forecast. I'll be on high alert for the duration, now.
Time to start final preps... though I'll make the decision to accelerate them in the next model run cycle (err on the side of caution)
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 10:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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wow the north coast mid level seems to be stealling the convection? wonder if it will blow up there tonight?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 10:32 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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It's hard to locate the center, but it appears to be quite a bit to the NE of the forecast position. I don't think we can get a good read on its future until it gets more developed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 10:35 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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Does it kind of look like it is wrapping some and want to form a center? Just my opinion.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 10:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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It's going to be ugly looking until it clears Hispaniola tomorrow. It may even downgrade to a TD while over land tonight. We'll have to wait and see, since it is still very early in development and the models need more data to get a better grip on it.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 11:26 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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While it makes no difference now, the NHC has made its call, it is Fay, the radar signature does not show any westward component near the center...the apex of the V signature depicted on Radar is on the central southern coast of the island...movement distinclty westward. This is consistent with the official forecast track.
| enterlaughing |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 15 2008 11:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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I am certainly no expert - just moved to Central FL in Fall of 06. I am more used to tornadoes than hurricanes, but am looking forward to learning as much as I can! Through this board, I have been tracking Fay since leaving the Cape Verde Islands. It looks to me that Florida will be soaked whether it's an East coast run or a Gulf run.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 12:20 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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Quote:
If the forecast track verifies, the center would be near Punta Gorda on Tuesday afternoon as a strong TS or minimal hurricane. Given the record of the intensity forecasts so far this year and the very warm eastern Gulf waters, I'm a bit wary that Fay may be much stronger than currently forecast. I'll be on high alert for the duration, now.
Michael, I would have to echo your sentiments here. I was quite surprised after a LONG day getting prepped for Open house tonight and the start of school on Monday, to get home, click on the NHC and find the center of a hurricane cone passing DIRECTLY over my location. OK...I have followed these things long enough not to get too hyper about that 'cone' at this point. Still a jolt like a Cuban espresso! I, too have not been impressed with intensity forcasts this season at all. Checking the southeastern GOM water temps, this thing will have a LOT of heat fuel to work with, especially if it hangs a bit south of Cuba. Also, do not downplay how the interaction with land can pull weaker systems off of the best model quidance tracks. I would say that everyone from the eastern Bahamas to Louisiana needs to watch this closely until the models are in significantly better agreement.......if it gets into the Fla Straits due south of the Keys (as the current forcast suggest), all bets are off on intensity!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 12:42 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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wow... is the mountains helping the storms? 8pm 8/15/08
SHIP OBERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 01:15 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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looks like the 00Z tropical run suite shifted west again some.... Apalachicola bay more centered now.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 01:15 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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Fay is moving at a good clip, so I suspect that the thrashing its circulation will take over central and western Hispanola will be minimized to some extent, although it may very well drop to TD status tomorrow morning. So far, the circulation has held up very well, and Fay will probably intensify quickly between the time it exits Hispanola and the time it reaches Cuba.
It is far too early to determine the eventual track of the storm. Too many unknowns exist to give us a very good feel for the track even during the near term. The strength of the storm, possible relocations of the center, and when and to what extent the weakness develops in the ridge to the north, will all significantly affect future movement. As of now, we don't have a good handle on any of these variables.
Anyone from the northern Gulf coast to the southeast Atlantic coast should begin preparing for a possible storm early next week. The current forecast brings Fay into Florida as early as Monday, so there really isn't much time to prepare. Preparations should be completed over the weekend.
| Morgan Palmer K5TVT |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 01:17 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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yes, the radar signature was certainly helpful. I like the track as is. I'd love to see how much rain will actually fall in the highlands when all is said and done. I don't think there are stations interior over Hispaniola. Pse correct me if I'm wrong. Too bad the people most likely to be killed are those least likely to know what's coming. Common theme in the past couple years!
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 01:31 AM |
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Someone a couple of days ago made the statement that this was a "fighter" and that worried them. I am surprised to see just how much a fighter Fay has become. It has fought off SAL, shear, dry air and now it is showing some of the best organization yet, even as it passes over the "rock".
Once it clears land nothing to impede its development and as so many have already noted, now is the time to prepare.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 01:50 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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The models are going to shift left or right on each run until they get a better handle on this system. Initial data is still probably fairly sparse.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 01:57 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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Quote:
It's hard to locate the center, but it appears to be quite a bit to the NE of the forecast position. I don't think we can get a good read on its future until it gets more developed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
I don't see where the center is quite a bit to the NE of the forcast position. If anything, she looks to be reforming the center to her South
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 02:09 AM |
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico
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This storm has always been about the healthy mid and upper level development with weak reflection at the surface. That could explain why the mountians are not beating Fay up more. Mid level (500mb) heights fluctuate around 18,000 ft. and unless we're in Nepal that won't be an issue. Intensity will have a direct correlation with time over open water which wil be determined by her eventual track. Everyone needs to watch this.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 02:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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Quote:
I don't see where the center is quite a bit to the NE of the forcast position. If anything, she looks to be reforming the center to her South
The convection is going to fire more over the warmer water than over land over night. Latest IR sat pics are showing some raggedness indicating the terrain is beginning to have some influence on the system.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:59 AM |
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I suppose even if the storm does stay offshore along the west coast of FL we will still feel it, correct? Being on the eastern side is not the place to be? If it was quite a ways out in the gulf no worries but i am thinking it will hug the coast...any ideas on that?
| JonB |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:30 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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Yes, you would feel it. It depends on how close it tracks and what the wind profile looks like when it gets there. The center point is deceiving. Storms affect how huge area. Francis and Jeanne in 04 came in near Stuart, FL and there was wide spread damage in Brevard County an 1.5 hrs north.
| Loudest Tundra in Florida |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:33 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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Quote:
I suppose even if the storm does stay offshore along the west coast of FL we will still feel it, correct? Being on the eastern side is not the place to be? If it was quite a ways out in the gulf no worries but i am thinking it will hug the coast...any ideas on that?
We will feel it, and yes, the East side of the storm is usually the rougher side... Its a wait and see game from this point.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:42 AM |
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You guys are correct. Those of us on the west coast of Florida have less margin for error if it is to our west. The eye could pass 50-100 miles west and still bring us rain, possibly tornados, high surf and seas and many other problems. But, if it passes 50-100 miles EAST of us, then the effects should be much less. I am almost exactly 40 miles west of where Charlie passed and here, there was no damage, little wind and really not much of anything. Of course it was a pretty compact storm. No telling how large Fay will be when in this area. The point is, there is much greater danger 'in the cone' east of the center (and for a larger distance 'off the center line' of a cyclone than the same distance west of the center.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 05:19 AM |
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East Side of Storm
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Quote:
I suppose even if the storm does stay offshore along the west coast of FL we will still feel it, correct? Being on the eastern side is not the place to be? If it was quite a ways out in the gulf no worries but i am thinking it will hug the coast...any ideas on that?
If the present forecast track, along the West Coast of FL, proves to be the track the storm takes.
Florida will take a heck of a beating. Even a Tropical Storm running the length of the Coastline will damage infrastructure to some degree. Western Coastline is at least 5 degrees long. That's over 300 miles of damage at some level. Add the Eastern Semicircle of the Storm being onshore for the 300 miles and you have raised the damage factor quite a bit.
I haven't looked at an intensity forecast since early yesterday afternoon. At that point the SHIPS was forecasting 92knots.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 05:58 AM |
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New Center Reforming South near coast?
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Like one of the people who posted, I'm inclined to believe as of 2 am ET, there is in fact a new center developing along the coast and for the moment there are two centers, one weakening on the north side of the island, the other just offshore on the south, both embedded in overall circulation as the system moves west.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:08 AM |
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The new EURO has shifted back to the East Coast putting me in grave danger. Landfall - St. Augustine/Jacksonville, FL area
I live 30 minutes south of there. Again, I would not be surprised if this pans out, the weakness is there. It reminds me a whole lot of Charley (2004). About the COC, it's so easily clear that it is now crossing into Haiti or is it the DR..... Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is very dangerous where Fay is forecasted to head to. The deep waters surrounding Jamaica has the highest heat potential and once Fay reaches that point, it should grow more then predicted due to past storms. It seems like fay is keeping it's strength over land, looking a bit ragid now. Fay should keep at minimal TS strength and then strengthen tomorrow as it heads to those oh so warm waters of the Caribbean.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:24 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms
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Clark just started a new Thread and new Main Page Article. Keep in mind that the posts there must relate to the Main Page and that there is a Thread already in the Forecast Lounge for model speculation and gut feelings, etc..otherwise it will probably be moved or deleted.
Thanks Clark! I bet thanks also to Mrs.Evans too for letting you stay up!
Copy posted to the new Thread