Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Aug 23 2008 06:00 PM |
Fay & Future Features
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Tropical Storm Fay now inland over the Florida panhandle just north of Panama City and 75 miles east of Pensacola at 1PM CT moving to the west at 8mph with sustained winds of 45mph gusting to 55mph - mainly to the southeast of the center along the coast. Continued movement to the west, as a minimal Tropical Storm is expected through Monday morning. With a slow forward motion likely, heavy rain is probable in southwestern Georgia, the Florida panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana (see Clark's latest Met Blog).
From Clark on previous thread:
"Tropical Storm Fay, now located near Panama City, FL, is producing torrential rains across southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend region this afternoon, with flood warnings up covering an estimated 400,000 people across the region. Rainfall rates of 4-6"/hr are common within its highly efficient rainfall bands, producing running storm total accumulations over 16" in Monticello, FL as of noon today. This activity will slowly slide westward with time, impacting Tallahassee and points further west. As it was in Jacksonville and Melbourne, this is a high impact dangerous flooding situation and travel is not recommended across the region. Stay tuned to your local NWS office, the NHC, and local emergency management agencies for all of the latest, including road closures and evacuations."
Latest NHC Warnings and Watches:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
Invest 94L has a low pressure center of 1008MB and was located near 11N 58W at 23/16Z with winds of 25mph gusting to 35mph. The system is moving to the west at 20mph and a continued motion to the west northwest to northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Windshear in the northern Caribbean Sea is likely to decrease so this system has a good chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next 24 to 36 hours. Convection has been on a steady increase and residents in Trinidad/Tobago, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands should anticipate squally conditions over the next few days. The next name on the list is Gustav.
Invest 95L was located near 19.5N 49.5W at 23/16Z with winds of 25mph gusting to 35mph, a low pressure of about 1012MB. This system was moving to the west northwest at 25mph and should continue to move to the west northwest for the next couple of days. Although convection has been increasing with this system, it will soon enter an area of strong southwesterly windshear so chances for additional development are rather slim.
Other active waves are noted near 6N 40W in the ITCZ and 13N 25W, and a large wave will exit the west African coast on Sunday. Plenty of systems to watch in the weeks ahead, however Fay remains our primary concern.
ED
Fay plotted on Google Map
{{StormLinks|Fay|06|6|2008|1|Fay}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|7|2008|2|Wave 94L}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|95L|95|8|2008|3|Wave 95L}}
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 23 2008 09:02 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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Looks to me that the ULL to the west that we saw dive last night out of the central plains is now winning on the west side of Fay... I starting to think that our weather here in PC area... may turn out to be better than thought.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 23 2008 09:14 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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so how many landfalls has Fay made in FL? 4 or 5?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 23 2008 10:17 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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4..after its landfall near Carabelle last night, it never went back over the Gulf..
| gatorman |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 23 2008 11:12 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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in the panhandle.......... FAY = FLOP,, not much rain... under inch and a half,, winds less than a breeze,,, total DUD!!!!!!
Remember, please no one line posts. Furthermore, many in the panhandle saw 5+" of rain today with areas in the Big Bend/extreme eastern panhandle seeing over 20". Be careful with what you say... -Clark
| cate |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 23 2008 11:41 PM |
Re: Fay & Future Features
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Why then is the NHC talking about torrential rain, damaging winds, tornado possitility, etc. in that area? My grandchildren live in PC and I'd like to know they are not in danger.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 03:20 AM |
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Administrative Notes
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From the previous thread;
"A reminder that CFHC is not a chat room. There have been a considerable number of one-line posts that contain no useful content in this thread (and others). One-line posts are generally not permitted on the site in any Forum. Please review the site Rules for guidance before you post."
If you want to agree with someone or thank someone for their assistance, please use the PM capability.
Model discussions/forecasts belong in the Forecast Lounge.
Current conditions in your area associated with Fay belong in the Storm Forum in the appropriate thread, ie., "Preparations, Closings and Conditions in your area"
Please review the Forum Descriptions and the site Rules before you post. It will make the task of site moderation a lot easier if you take the time to do this, and it makes it easier for others to follow the various discussions.
Thanks,
ED
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 01:58 PM |
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Re: Administrative Notes
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Can we discuss future features here? Because that's the title and I'd like to read some thoughts on features currently on the map from some of our met posters as the models continue to develop 95 and 94.
94 looks low and is slowly moving west however there is strong shear down there where it is now and further west there is shear so despite the models I am not sure if this can develop.
95 on the other hand is high but if the high builds in wouldn't it push it west?
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
I'd like to read some in depth analysis on future features beyond Fay.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 02:13 PM |
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Re: Administrative Notes
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94L actually looks really good in satellite presentation. I didnt check the quickpast yet to see if there is a closed low or windspeeds yet. It would't surprise me though if this really gets upgraded fast today.
| tropics |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 02:29 PM |
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Re: Administrative Notes
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The QuikSCAT missed 94L this morning. Visible satellite presentation shows a pretty healthy invest right now. By the way the convection is bending I'd say it's pretty evident there is some turning. The latest SHIP forecast is also calling for low shear values over the next 5 days.
There is a pretty significant weakness in the subtropical high which should result in a WNW to NW motion. With the deep convection evident on rainbow associated with the low you really have to use a deeper layer steering current. This is the 48 hour GFS 500mb ( link ).
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 02:29 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Administrative Notes
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There is some good rotation starting to develop with 94L. We will have to see how far north it can get so it wont pull in drier air from S. America. Some of the models hook it north to Hispaniola, and some take it to Central America...but its really too early to be looking at models until they have something to initialize. I attached a wind shear graphic, and I dont see a lot of shear going on
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 03:44 PM |
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Re: Administrative Notes
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As urged by Lois in a previous post this a.m., would also be interested with any MET's thoughts on 94L as well. Perhaps even moreso, would be curious to their "take" or interpretation on what I have noticed to be an unusually lesser degree of short to mid term model consistancy with regards to steering patterns. Seems that in some past years, perhaps years where the Atlantic has displayed more pronounced meridianal troughing, forecasts of 72hr's-120hr's tended to be more "spot on". This year, it is my observation that not only does the Eastern U.S. appear much more zonal, but the overall Atlantic as well. Of course this would lessen the extent of poleward steering influences, but because of this perhaps, there also seems to be less defined steering, with 500mb flow variances and heights seemingly less extreme. Then you take weaker systems in the early stages of cyclongenisis, and even greater conflict of model guidance seems to exist given the lower level steering influences that always exist.
It might be noted to, that as we watch for development of 94L or other future invests, that perhaps contrary to other years, certain models typically less relied on may be actually more reliable this year given the specifity of dynamical data deceminated by them. Right now for instance, as another post already made reference to the GFDL now having backed off development of 94L, suddenly NOGAPS ( in the last couple of runs ) out of nowhere really develops the system north of Hispanola/Cuba. What is most odd to me about this, is that I have noticed some years ago, that the NOGAPS model had somehow become "neutered" ( obviously tweaked ), and seemingly rarely forecasting future cyclogenisis, especially less so as an outlyer to the many other models not forecasting the same. :?:
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 04:04 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
920 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008
AN INCREASING ATLC TROPICAL CONSENSUS OCCURRING IN OVERNIGHT RUNS
CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 94L AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
95L. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS NOGAPS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET ALL INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT AND A NW TRACK INTO THE BAHAMAS OR CUBA BY DAY 6 WITH
A NW CONTINUENCE. GFS REMAINS ALONE WITH LIMITED TO NO
DEVELOPMENT. HURRICANE MODELS ARE LESS EMPHATIC AND MAINTAIN A
MORE WRLY COURSE TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 94L. WHETHER 94L OR
95L OR BOTH THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A TROPICAL WAVE OR GREATER
MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS OR CENTRAL GREATER ANTILLES DAYS 5-7
POSSIBLY AFFECTING FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS AND
ADVISORIES.
HPC UPDATED MORNING BLENDS USE A 50/50 BLEND OF OP GFS AND ECMWF
THRU DAY 5 THEN A BLENSD OF ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN THRU DAYS 6 AND
7. THE OP 00Z GFS IS REASOANBLE ENOUGH TO USE ALSO AT THIS TIME
BUT WAS NOT USED BECAUSE OF ITS DISREGARD OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS 94L
AND 95L.
ROSENSTEIN
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 04:07 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 24 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-085
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. CARIBBEAN SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 15.5N 70.0W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO ? TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 26/0300Z
D. 16.5N 72.0W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
This systems appears to have both the HPC and now the NHC attention.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 04:43 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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94L at 66W; 14N is looking like it may be getting wrapped up today, definitely circular in appearance. The convection West of that still appears to be disorganized. 95L is struggling today with very little convection. The new invest just west of the Cape Verde Islands has a broad LL circulation, but little convection associated with it. Still, we're entering the historical peak of the season and things are active in the tropical Atlantic. It should be an interesting few weeks ahead.
| johnnylightning |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 08:31 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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I was looking at 95L and found this great little web site with Hurricane Info and some Meteorological data about Tropical Storms/history in the Antilles. It has several radar features and is from the Netherlands Antilles Government, similar to the Cuban radar but in the .English language.
http://www.weather.an/reports/documents/HurricanesandTropicalStorms.pdf
Any new thoughts about continental landfall probabilities of 95L?
JohnnyLightning
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 09:09 PM |
Re: Fay & Future Features
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Quote:
found this great little web site with Hurricane Info and some Meteorological data about Tropical Storms/history in the Antilles. It has several radar features and is from the Netherlands Antilles Government, similar to the Cuban radar but in the .English language.
I checked out the site, and while some nice historical information, I did not see any links for any island radars. Perhaps I skimmed over it all a little fast. If you happen to have the specific link(s) for these E. Caribb. Island radars, please do post them.
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 09:30 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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94l is looking very healthly this evening, with a nice rotation becoming very evident. I would expect a status upgrade within the next 24hrs. Due to the weakness in the Atlantic high, should we still expect more of a WNW or NW movement?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 10:22 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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I am not convinced 100% that there is a closed low with 94L, which is required for it to be designated as a tropical cyclone. It's getting closer, but I don't believe it's there, yet. Models are beginning to distress me about it, though.. they're all over the place!
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 10:55 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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Yeah, 94 has a real look to it tonight. Not sure the spin but the fact that it looks tightly wound up. Round for lack of a better term. Looking less wave like.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
And, high enough to the north of South America to have any problems with friction from land. Looks very different from the way it looked this morning.
Glad the planes are going in...
Surprised a little because I thought it had it's plate filled with shear. If it looks this good with this much shear, what could it do down the road I wonder...
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 11:16 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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The long-range San Juan radar shows the northern extent of 94L, and it does show a bit of a bend to the rain bands, but not much. It'll be very interesting to see what the recon finds.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 24 2008 11:37 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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94L building some extremely strong heights. These cloud tops are approaching
-80C to -90C. Tells me not a lot of shear going on.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 12:02 AM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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The water vapor loop did not show shear earlier today, which is the last time I looked at it.
Cloud tops have been oscillating in height it appears, but are still pretty high.
If there is a closed low, I'd say it's right near the big blowup of convection, too... meaning it's really only a matter of time before TD 7, and ultimately Gustav, is born.
Just read the 8pm TWO, and the NHC says there is no sign of a closed circulation at this time.
| johnnylightning |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 12:19 AM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#
Sorry about that.
The radar site is at the link above. It is a java loop site. This is Netherlands Antilles Radar.
Johnny
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 12:36 AM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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Déjà vu….this is very reminiscent of how Fay started. It appears to the have a good mid level circulation, at least on sat presentation. Now just waiting for llc to form and if it does the environment certainly appears to be conducive for development.
Potentially another long week ahead…….
(man the GFDL likes to paint ominous picture!!)
| shewtinstar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 01:23 AM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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Speaking of Fay, is she moving back out into the Gulf or is it my eyes playing tricks on me????
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 01:44 AM |
Re: Fay & Future Features
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What ever happened to the new..., er old invest? Looks to me like a whole lot of turning around 13N and 33W, with but only a tad of convection seemingly in the middle of it all. Has got the ITZ all fired up due south of it. Meanwhile, looks like some E. Atlantic trough, just off Africa has been impacting it, but as this moves westward, may be something to once again watch.
94L DOES look like Fay; at least in the odd way that a fairly well established mid level took shape, but just wants to take its sweet time in working down to the surface. If 94L is anything like Fay, than it won't have any interest in forming until encountering land (kidding). Worse part is that the longer it takes to establish itself at the surface, than more than likely the farther west it'll go. GFDL really does go nuts with it. Lets see if any other models jump on the bandwagon. I think the EURO takes some system across Cuba and lookin for a couple Mojito's - visits South Beach, Fl! Then again, where the EURO has been wrangling with wanting to develop "something" and bringing it towards the Greater Antilles for days, its been jumping around a bit, so not to consistant. Then again, we don't yet have anything for the models to really latch onto yet.
Finally, "ex-95L" is still around. Not looking at all impressive, but am actually more focused on the area somewhat southeast of it around 18N. Not sure, but thought that I had noticed earlier today some level of loose vorticity in the cloud fragments. Was no convection to speak of, but now there is some firing up.
And now the 18Z GFS wants to bring something new off the African coast in about 168 hrs., and then quickly wind it up......busy times ahead.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 02:01 AM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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I too have a BAD sense of deja vu. Fortunately, Fay seemed to go around us here, we did get some light rain, but no wind at all, and not a lot of rain. 94L looks almost like a carbon-copy, both in appearance and in models. Yeah, there are some differences, but not many that I can see, except that in this case, the low that could ultimately drive what could be Gustav northward into the Gulf is Fay rather than an ULL. Long-range San Juan radar now shows a circulation, and the satellite loop is very impressive for an unclassified system. If it holds together overnight, we'll be tracking Gustav tomorrow night in all likelihood.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 02:09 AM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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Quote:
Déjà vu….this is very reminiscent of how Fay started. It appears to the have a good mid level circulation, at least on sat presentation. Now just waiting for llc to form and if it does the environment certainly appears to be conducive for development.
Potentially another long week ahead…….
(man the GFDL likes to paint ominous picture!!)
I going out on a limb... i think i see some westerly winds there south of 94L... Someone may be close to being a TD... much better looking on sats this evening... if trend holds we could have a TS by the time recon gets in there 2morrow
hmm.... loop current?
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 02:25 AM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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It's definitely an impressive system and with the TCHP up there, anticyclone, and less dry air, I smell a classic 2004/2005 hurricane. Models are pretty spread out and until this actually finds a closed low, models will continue to diverge in many directions. Many things can happen with this system and it's important that everyone on the Gulf Coast watches this system as it could rapidly organize into a very dangerous situation. Fays weakening, is on land, but very broad, saw a green sky while riding to Starbucks from work which led me to believe a possible tornado was forming, none reported though.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 03:46 AM |
"Son of Fay"
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Sorry about the one line post, but just taking another look at satellite this evening, and JSL and Rainbow resolutions lead me to believe that there certainly appears to be a low level circulation. Not gaining too much latitude.........yet.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 03:57 AM |
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Re: "Son of Fay"
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This is not Fay and it is not in my thoughts how Fay started or WHERE she started. It is far to the south and will get further west unless that model that pulls her due north gets it's way.
As for Fay... cannot believe this storm refuses to just rain itself out and yeah looks like she is drifting south towards open water but looks can be deceiving.
What does worry me is that water temps are hot wnw of her and that is where NRL has her progged to go for now. Without accurate recon we cannot get accurate models.
Shear has lessened and I also believe the ULL off the E Coast is going to retreat and has started to do so.
So...what is the big steering impetus here.. it also doesn't have an ULL attached like Fay did that made it easy to see where it would go.
Models are inconsistent for a reason.
If this storm is as round and together with high tops still blowing it can develop a lot faster than Fay or Dolly, so please keep that in mind.
This is the G storm.. not a remake or a sequel and probably going to get a lot stronger.
Intensity worries me on this one not just track.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 09:12 AM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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Looks as if 94L is on track for an upgrade soon. A STDS (Special Tropical Disturbance Statement) was issued a short while ago and a part of it...
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM THE
NETHERLAND ANTILLES INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
Meanwhile what is left of Fay is still causing problems. Still drawing from the GOM prompting a tornado watch to the east to Panama City and some heavy rain feeding back into the FL panhandle as well as points west.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 09:41 AM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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Just a few items to add to what has already been said of 94L -
94L may not be as much like Fay as one might think:
Based on surface reports and microwave images, it appears that 94L has a better chance of already having a sufficiently tight closed surface circulation, and not merely an incredibly impressive mid-level low. Additionally, it is unlikely that 94 gets upgraded over land.. and to that point, also much more likely that 94L spends a good deal more time over warm water while it is still getting its act together than Fay did.
94 is already land-locked. Fay had a brief moment in time where she still could have scooted on out to sea. This will not be the case with 94. If indeed it is our next TC, as looks probable, it already has nowhere to go but on to one or more landfalls.
As for looking to models right now - forget them. None of the most recent model runs initialize 94L in much of any worthwhile way, if at all. Listen to what the NHC has to say. If you can't resist following along with the models, at least wait until tomorrow's runs are in. By then they may have had time to digest some accurate info and process it a little better.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 12:15 PM |
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last microwave pass
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The last microwave pass looks very interesting. There is a very strong curved convective band and an eye-like feature forming in the center. Wouldn´t be very surprising to have a TD or even a TS already. And conditions seem to be conducive for strengthening, even for phases of rapid intensification not far away.
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 12:21 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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Looking at the visible sat this morning, it is pretty clear that we have a low level circulation developed with 94l. I have not looked when recon is scheduled, but would expect depression status to be skipped and straight to Gustav. Nice banding features are present in the Southern portion and outflow becoming evident on the northern side. No idea of where it will go, so I'm not going to venture a guess at this time.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 12:41 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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aggree with most everyone on here... when recon gets in there around lunch time.. we should have a moderate TS i would think... been dealing with left over fay this morning.. tornado watch box... with warnings all over.. been a long morning already.... amazing the low level winds screamin in off the GOM... lots OF THUNDER and lightning!
Think visible sats this morning helped them issue the special tropical statement?
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 25 2008 12:47 PM |
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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As the track evolves, and depending when they declare 94L a depression or storm, does it appear that this will be an issue for South Florida in the upcoming days? I am curiouis to see everyones thoughts on this. I am wondering if it may even track east of us here