MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 25 2008 12:48 PM
Tropical Storm (Hurricane) Gustav Forms in Central Caribbean 60MPH

2:00AM Update
Gustav will be upgraded to a hurricane with winds of 80MPH at the next advisory.

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
220 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.


2:00PM Update
Recon reports have confirmed Gustav has formed in the Caribbean with 60Mph winds. A special advisory will be arriving shortly.

All Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings mentioned earlier are now Hurricane Watches/Warnings.



More to come soon.

11:00AM Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from santo domingo westward into Hati to Port Au Prince.

Tropical Strom watches are up from north of Port au Prince to the rest of Hati.

The forecast track has a great deal of uncertainty now due to model spreads, Two scenarios right now, a more northerly track, and one more Westward, the official forecast is somewhere in the middle, but the later days in the official track are highly uncertain (according to the National Hurricane Center).

This puts South Florida in the cone once again, but any potential effects would likely not be seen until the Weekend or early next week.

There is a good chance for strengthening in this system. The National Hurricane Center may change the track/intensity informaion after a recon aircraft investigates the depression later today.

9:50AM Update
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the Caribbean from 94L, advisories and more to begin at 11AM this morning. Haiti and Jamaica are the most immediate concerns.

Original Update
A low pressure area (94L) in the Central Caribbean likely will become a tropical depression or storm Today. Satellite Estimated Dvorak T Numbers are about 2.5, which is enough to support a Depression or weak Tropical Storm, so chances are it could form at anytime today.

It's likely the Hurricane Center is waiting for Recon before updating since it appears a Low Level Circulation isn't easy to spot or find now, if there is one.

Those in Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas will need to watch this one.

Tropical Storm Warnings for Hispaniola may be issued later today.

Beyond that, Florida and the Gulf will want to watch the system, currently it is too early to say with any sort of confidence where this system may go or how strong. The only thing you can do now is watch the model trends.



More to Come Soon...

Discuss models and future possibilities for 94L in the lounge.

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{{StormLinks|95L|95|8|2008|3|Wave 95L}} 2:00AM Update

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 12:55 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

very interesting morning to say the least.... what is that hole there on the eastern side of the convection? models want have a good fix on things until we get a "center"... and judging by what i have seen this morning... i expect we have a decent system already on our hands.. shear is almost a non-threat to it right now... outflow in upper levels is almost perfect... got good banding on the southern side... whats underneath is what recon has to find out..

What do you think it is?

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Aug 25 2008 01:51 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Wind shear essentially very light in the western half of the Caribbean Sea so there is good likelihood for continued development of this embryonic Tropical Depression. See Area of Concern in the Storm Forum for initial thoughts on this system. Also please read the post in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum for guidance on model output discussions.
ED

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 25 2008 02:06 PM
Attachment
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

TD 7 does not look like a depression to me, at least on the microwave imagery. I am attaching a pass from little over two hours ago. It has a nice banding feature go to the north and east as well as what appears to be already a nascent eye.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Aug 25 2008 02:48 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

I'm guessing that recon will find a minimal TS or, at least, a very strong depression similar to Fay's development. Vis sat presentation is pretty impressive this morning. Future track bears constant watching.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 03:02 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Really won't know much until the HH get there. Going tb be another big rain event for Hispanolia & Cuba if nothing else. If the NHC assumption is correct and its further west, we're looking at a Gulf storm.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 03:03 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

I found it interesting that NHC actually mentioned the "eye-like" feature in the 11am discussion. I think this could be a rapidly deepening system with the ever increasing presentation on vis sat. It looks to be much better vertically stacked than Fay.

saluki
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 25 2008 03:17 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

It's interesting that soon-to-be Gustav quite possibly will have the same issue in the early stages as Fay -- interaction with Hispaniola and/or Cuba. Of course, that's if the NHC's forecast plays out, and they made it clear in the 11 a.m. discussion that they don't have much confidence in any scenario yet.

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 25 2008 03:25 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

I would have to agree that it is very interesting that the 11 am discussion mentioned an "eye like" feature. Don't want to jump the gun here but I sense some urgency in their discussion and they are of course awaiting HH before they upgrade to Gustav.

Fay never had this "eye like" feature this early and what catches my attention about this one is the "eye" has been constant over the last several hours...could this potentially already be a hurricane?

Last vis sat frame shows nice ring around this "eye like" feature but does appear to be on east side of deepest convection.

p.s. Labor Day Weekend ahead too.....

B_from_NC
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 25 2008 03:28 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Yeah but this time its most likey not going to be a due westward motion through Hispanola, which really kept Fay at bay... A NW type of track will allow "Gustav" to brush off the effects sooner.... This storm bears lots of watching, models have been all over the place, and one of the most reliable ones (GFS) didnt even pick it up.

CDMOrlando
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 25 2008 03:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Seven Forms in Central Caribbean

Recon is in the air. The plane is about 1/3 of the way to the depression.

Location: 99 miles (160 km) to the S (179°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

I do not think that it will take them as long with this storm as Fay with finding the center or even topical storm force winds.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 04:10 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Seven Forms in Central Caribbean

oh recon should find a center.. really easy. There about 450 miles from what i think is the center. Thats an eye in my book with a HOT TOWER on the WSW side in the last hr... rapid intensification in my book.... i'm not sure i by the north of Cuba track... will see... see the AF guys had to move to Homestead AFB. thats where this recon took off... man.. recon this year, both NOAA and AF have had to relocate homebase twice already... and were not halfway through the season!


... really nice sat shot

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 25 2008 04:13 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

I picked this up off of offshore forecast discussion:

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS FORMED NEAR 15.5N 70.1W
1006 MB AT 11 AM EDT MOVING NW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NW TO NEAR 16.5N 71.1W TONIGHT
...THEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SW COAST OF
HAITI NEAR 17.6N 72.2W TUE MORNING...TO NEAR 18.8N 73.3W TUE
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA NEAR
19.7N 74.2W BY WED MORNING. THE TROPICAL STORM IS THEN FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A NW TRACK ALONG OVER THE NE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21.0N 75.5W BY THU MORNING AND PARALLEL THE REMAINDER OF THE
COAST OF CUBA FRI AND SAT.
Which pretty much sums up the official track.

AdvAutoBob
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 25 2008 04:19 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Hmmm... banding looking better and better, "eye-like" feature... looks like the strongest TD I've ever seen

awaiting the models with recon data progged in as to where STBGustav will go...

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 25 2008 04:27 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Raw T-Numbers are sitting at 3.7 which is pretty impressive for a Tropical Depression. The 'eye-like feature' is midlevel, which is why the raw T numbers are probably overstating TD-7's actual pressure and intensity. All in all I would be shocked if the HH's didn't find both a closed system and winds over 50MPH.

I can't see any reason to quibble with the NHC's forecast path, and they aren't afraid to admit in the discussion that their confidence is rather low on this one (particularly in the day 4 and 5 forecast). So, it may trend left, and it looks like the initial direction of the possible center seems closer to 300 than 315. (but we all know the caveat about trying to judge motion based on relatively short satellite loops...)

Either way, someone's going to get a lot of rain and wind.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:19 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Recon just recently crossed to South of Hati and it looks like they are flying at a low level, not sure that's such a great idea with how the system looks now. (It looks like it's in full on strengthening mode right now) I am very interested in seeing what recon finds here.

edit...

First round of recon info indicates it's a Tropical Storm already.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:31 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Recon just went through the center... Keep an eye to the NRL site.. Expect a special tropical disturbance statement any time now.

Recon SFMR data is showing 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph) to 60kts i think i saw.. there coming in from NW side

flying at 725 meters (~ 2,379 feet) and hit flt lvl winds around From 36° at 44 knots (From the NE at ~ 50.6 mph) at 15.9833N 70.6667W

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:35 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

SH, Here is some data to go with your post.

updated data:

Time:
17:36:30Z
Coordinates:
15.7333N 70.35W
Acft. Static Air Press:
925.4 mb (~ 27.33 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
671 meters (~ 2,201 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
999.2 mb (~ 29.51 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 202° at 65 knots (From the SSW at ~ 74.8 mph)
Air Temp:
21.4°C (~ 70.5°F)
Dew Pt:
20.0°C (~ 68.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
66 knots (~ 75.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:43 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

looks like flight level center is around 15.8167N 70.4833W...possible pressure of 995.8 mb (~ 29.41 inHg)
air temp 21.6°C (~ 70.9°F) / dew pt. 20.0°C (~ 68.0°F) at 647 meters (~ 2,123 feet) with surface wind around 7 knots* (~ 8.0 mph*). at 17:33:00Z

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:45 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Quote:

Recon just went through the center... Keep an eye to the NRL site.. Expect a special tropical disturbance statement any time now.



I am sure you guys have told us this before, but exactly WHERE on the NRL site do these statements get issued. Some may find that site rather intimidating until they have played around with it a bit. Thanks!
I am watching this storm particularly closely as it looks like it is REALLY getting its act together quickly and Florida is once again 'in dah cone'. My area was one of the few in the state spared of most of Fay's mess. We may not be so blessed again this season!!

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:51 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Hmm.... peak seemed to be 66 knots at the flight level, with the SFMR picking it up at 52, pressure around 996mb.

Mid to Strong Tropical Storm Gustav very Likely now. Likely that the storm warnings will be upped to hurricane too based on this.

Hurikid
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:51 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Recon just measured fl winds of 65 knots(74.8 mph). pressure down to 995.8. All of this happening within a few hours. Tropical storms and hurricanes never cease to amaze me

byrdlh
(Registered User)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:53 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

The projected paths seem to vary greatly. What, in the next several days will be steering this storm? I, too, was spared the worst of Fay. It just seems unusual that the plots vary so much.

ChessieStorm
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:56 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Right now high pressure is building in north of the storm, but according to Tampa's mets on the long-term forecast, they are expecting that persistent trough to build in to the southeast states by the weekend. This will either pull the storm towards Florida or away from us.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:58 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 17:33:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°49'N 70°30'W (15.8167N 70.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 189 miles (303 km) to the SSW (192°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: No min. height observation at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 28° at 58kts (From the NNE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 17:36:30 Z

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 25 2008 05:59 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

I think recon found the center: 924mb flight level

Time:
17:33:00Z
Coordinates:
15.8167N 70.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press:
924.8 mb (~ 27.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
647 meters (~ 2,123 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
995.8 mb (~ 29.41 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 284° at 3 knots (From the WNW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp:
21.6°C (~ 70.9°F)
Dew Pt:
20.0°C (~ 68.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
7 knots* (~ 8.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate:
5 mm/hr* (~ 0.20 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:03 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

is there any reason why, despite there being tropical storm warnings, that NHC is not issuing an intermediate advisory?

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:04 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Quote:

The projected paths seem to vary greatly. What, in the next several days will be steering this storm? I, too, was spared the worst of Fay. It just seems unusual that the plots vary so much.


Mostly, it's the lack of initial data being put into the models. That should be corrected soon as more data on the system starts coming in. Looking at the WV loops, there is a trough moving eastward north of TD7/Gustav and then some anticyclonic flow over Florida (outflow from Fay, apparently). The NHC track looks about right for now. Of course, as time progresses, that will be refined.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:05 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

The NHC just called Gustav. An update will be issued within 30 minutes.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:05 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

my guess is they would be or have just finished up a conference call with the other nations wx offices. To share data and stuff. advisory should be out soon.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:06 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.

FORECASTER PASCH

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:06 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Just posted as an update with an advisory due around 2:30. It is officially TS Gustav with max winds at 60 MPH. Here we go.

I'm wondering why the NHC has been so cautious in classifying these lately. Fay and now Gustav are proving to be much stronger than initially thought.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:07 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Wow, recon is reporting a CLOSED EYEWALL. I guess this means it made it to the surface. This is going to ramp up quickly from here on I believe if it can get the outflow going. WV loop shows that to be lacking on the NW side. If this can get ventilated we might have a big problem going forward

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:12 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

I'm very interested as to what recon will find when it makes its pass through the northeast eyewall. This storm reminds me of Lenny from a few years ago so much. I distinctly remember Lenny's depression stage as showing what appeared to be an eye and then it spun up quickly from there on its way to a very quirky path in the Caribbean. Hispanola has to be thanking its lucky stars right now that if anything, it will be just a brush by, especially with the way Fay dumped all the rain on Hispanola. Cuba and eventually, Florida (big IF), will definitely have to worry because there is no where for all the water from Fay to go.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:25 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

the pkg is out... they didn't move the track.. movement to the NW at 14mph... all watches and warnings were upgrade to the Hurricane side. Note that recon has yet to sample the NE side of the storm... they are headed that way now... flying north ***also looks like in the coming hour the eye should be clearly seen***

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 25 2008 06:28 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Yes and i heard that they found an eyewall, which means hurricane strength is right around the corner. Should definately be upgraded before it hits hispanola, unfortunately. Models are all over the place as they usually are until they get decent recon info input. Will wait for 0z models to come out later on tonight.

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 07:09 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

This was a TS yesterday I feel. There was a west wind at Flamingo near Aruba yesterday but there was no recon to confirm nor any bouys to support this. Anyways with that said, the pressure didnt drop from 1007mb to just above 995 in 12hrs, probably was around 1002-1004mb last night and pressure droped in the early morning hours to the current level. The main circulation was just above the surface though winds at the surface yesterday were in excess of 50kts. Now the strongest winds are from the SSW near 64kts. Unless interaction with Haiti occurs earlier than expected (tonight) then there is no reason to feel this isnt a hurricane on the next recon mission later tonight before landfall.
Track should take this near the eastern coast of Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, after that, it just matters on the strength of the ridge, a general west-WNW movement around a ridge over the bahamas-florida will take place, but we dont know yet forsure if this will be on the N or S side of Cuba. The NHC track looks alright for now, especially up to 48hrs. We'll have better confidence after 48hrs on where this will go and who it will affect by Weds.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 07:10 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

looking at the dropsonde data that was dropped at 15.7N 69.2W... there is some "drier" air on the east side of the system.. which is clearly visible in some sats. To me it appears to be wrapping around to the north? in the a data.. there were flying at 5kft

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level....................................Air Temperature............................... Dew Point
1008mb (Surface)................27.4°C (81.3°F)............................. 23.5°C (74.3°F)
949mb...................................22.4°C (72.3°F)...............................21.4°C (70.5°F)
889mb....................................19.6°C (67.3°F)...............................16.2°C (61.2°F)
850mb....................................16.8°C (62.2°F)................................15.5°C (59.9°F)
843mb.....................................16.0°C (60.8°F)...............................15.0°C (59.0°F)

hmm.... recon is up to 12,500ft heading west off the coast of southern Haiti... not sure if there will be another pass... i figured they base in St. Croix tonight.... but not looking like that.... unless there going over the convection there in? UPDATE: looks like recon is buggin out and headin home to Homestead AFB. (they are over Haiti at 17kft)

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Aug 25 2008 07:25 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

As scottsvb mentioned above, Gustav has probably been with us for awhile now, it's just that ambiguous satellite data and a lack of surface or recon data until this afternoon led to an overly conservative estimate regarding its intensity. It doesn't quite have the look of a storm that is rapidly intensifying, but steady intensification at the very least seems to be underway and likely to continue in the near term. Like Fay, Gustav's fate will be determined by how it interacts with the numerous land masses along its potential track, but it appears that Gustav will be stronger than Fay ever was before encountering any of those land masses.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 07:32 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Did it reform to the NW or move that way. I'm confused because on visible it looks more like it's moving WNW.

Perhaps that's why the models are having a problem with this storm.

Do they have the Gulfstream Jet progged to go in because that would be the biggest help.

Timing here is way off, as was their intensify forecast.

Would like some clear cut info on this storm before we are in the 3 day cone in South Florida?

This is not Fay.. we are talking wind here not a rain storm.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 07:49 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

The path is a general NW movement with wobbles WNW at times. The main issue on future path is land interaction with Haiti and Cuba, when it makes its west turn N or S of Cuba, then movement and strength and how much more intereaction with Cuba does this have to inpeede strengthening.I suggest we just watch this for the next 36-48hrs cause there is plenty of time to speculate where this will go after weds.

Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Aug 25 2008 08:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Forms in Central Caribbean 60MPH

dry air is probally coming off of venesula land continent, cuss the se qaudrent is pulling air from it. All this should change soon.

CDMOrlando
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 25 2008 08:30 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
319 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...
THINK THE NORTHEASTERN SYSTEM THE MODELS SPIN UP IN THE 60S
LONGITUDE WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON GUSTAVS FUTURE TRACK OTHER THAN LEADING TO SLOW
MOTION...WHICH WAS SEEN WITHIN THE MEAN LAYER WINDS OF THE 00Z
ECMWF WHICH ADVERTISED WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING OF 5 KNOTS NEAR THE
NHC TRACK. THIS CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE...AS
THE GUIDANCE NOW LIES WEST OF THE NHC TRACK. DUE TO A LACK OF
SEPARATION BETWEEN GUSTAV AND THE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHOSE TO DEPICT THE SYSTEM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV AS A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER COORDINATION
WITH NHC/TPC. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LURED INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY A MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE GULF COAST.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 08:40 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

5:00 is out...forecast now right over Cuba, which should significant hinder development, at least in the short term.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807.html

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 08:56 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

The thin line moved a little west,but the cone is about the same.As we all know this will go back and forth over the coming days.The models are still all over the place on this one.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 09:01 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

I think there needs to be set of consistent model runs with the flight data before we can speculate what will happen. No one knows how land interaction or missing Cuba will affect Gus.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 25 2008 09:14 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

I'm intrigued by TUTT to the NW, which will inhibit its movement in that direction - short term - and probably why it's forecast track is shifting west at this time. Gustav is still pretty compact and I'm not sure that previously noted eyewall is uniform through all layers. We've seen some of these tropical storms and minimal hurricanes get torn up by upper levels, and eventually the low-level circulation gets exposed and weakens. As NHC rightly noted, there is great uncertainty in the long term at this point, and very interesting to note that GFS/UK models seemingly weaken Gustav.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Aug 25 2008 09:29 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Latest vis pic shows new convection developing around the coc. Still, the outflow on the north and northeast is detached from the system. If Gustav runs the spine of Cuba, it will get rather disrupted by that terrain. I'll be watching this intently over the next few days.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 25 2008 10:59 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Gustav looks considerably less organized to me than earlier this afternoon, likely due to the proximity to Hispanola. Once it clears the island (assuming it remains south of it), I imagine strengthening will proceed at a swift clip. In the meantime, hopefully it will be held in check.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 25 2008 11:18 PM
Attachment
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

I think its less proximity to land than the upper flow. The outflow at this point just isn't that impressive. Compare the outflow here to what Fay looked like over Florida. Gustav isn't having a problem firing off convection...its just not evacuating very well right now. That, however, is forecast to change in the next couple of days if it can get underneath an ULH . I found a picture of Fays outflow if you want a look.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 25 2008 11:47 PM
Attachment
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

WN Compare your pic with the current setup. Wave axis is the same SW to NE with cut off low. the outflow channel to the NE of Gustav looks the same only Gustav has much better overall structure and convection. Looks like eye feature is making a comeback also.

Yo Ho, Edible Yards
(Registered User)
Mon Aug 25 2008 11:58 PM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Off-topic post deleted.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 26 2008 12:20 AM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

The eye looks to be making a comeback...I agree. My post about the outflow has to do with the length. G's seems to go and get dammed up at some point whereas F's goes almost to Iceland. That was the point I was making. G's structure is much better at this point than F's

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Aug 26 2008 12:45 AM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

Is anyone else seeing what appears to be a shift to due west for the motion over the last several hours?
Or maybe it's just an expansion to the west, hard to tell for sure...

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 26 2008 12:57 AM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

WN agree with your assesment. Fays environment was somewhat different.Here is a time sensitive link to what will keep Gustav moving nw to wnw for a couple days- textbook TUTT .Fay did not have this constraint. Although depending on storm relative position these can have either a positive or negative effect on development. You can see the outflow to the NE of Gustav slamming into it. I'm thinking it is having a neutral effect on development right now but will keep Gustav on a more wnw track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

mikethewreck
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Aug 26 2008 12:57 AM
Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today

The center is still just in view on Punta Cana (Dominican Republic) radar:

Punta Cana Radar

Looks like west to me.

Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Aug 26 2008 02:34 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Forms in Central Caribbean 60MPH

(Duplicated post - see Forecast Lounge.)

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Aug 26 2008 06:06 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Forms in Central Caribbean 60MPH

looks like recon flew through the center at 05:54:00Z at 16.85N 71.6667W.. possible pressure around 985.9 mb (~ 29.11 inHg)... there at 3,033 meters (~ 9,951 feet). flt. level wind From 331° at 1 knots (From the NNW at ~ 1.1 mph)... they appeared to have hit the NE part of the eyewall.. they came in from NW and then got to the center and then flew to the NE and then turned to the SE..


more data on outbound:

05:58:30Z
16.7667N 71.5W
plane alt. 3,063 meters (~ 10,049 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 201° at 73 knots (From the SSW at ~ 83.9 mph)

Air Temp: 12.0°C (~ 53.6°F)
Dew Pt: 6.6°C (~ 43.9°F) warm core?

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 75 knots (~ 86.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)

seen flight level winds at 10kft as high as 90mph on outbound! (SE side of center)

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Aug 26 2008 06:27 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Forms in Central Caribbean 60MPH

interesting vortex report... two eyewalls?

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 5:54:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°51'N 71°39'W (16.85N 71.65W)
B. Center Fix Location: 125 miles (202 km) to the SSE (159°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,002m (9,849ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WSW (253°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 22° at 57kts (From the NNE at ~ 65.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the W (264°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40° to 220° (NE to SW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the west quadrant at 5:51:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 6:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SONDE RELEASED 30 SECONDS AFTER FIX / SLP 987 MB
STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS IN NE QUAD OF EYEWALL

so could an eyewall replacement cycle be coming up in the morning?

Winds are at 80... it is a hurricane now per NHC.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Aug 26 2008 06:56 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Forms in Central Caribbean 60MPH

As many of you may have figured on, Gustav will be upgraded at the 5AM Advisory..... from the NHC...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Aug 26 2008 07:47 AM
Hurricane Gustav Forms in Central Caribbean 80MPH

recon just went back through the center... looks like pressure may be down slightly at about 983.9 mb (~ 29.05 inHg) around 17.1N 71.75W at 07:36:00Z

they came in from the NE and i do see higher winds in the data... especially at flight level... winds on SFMR at the surface at 80mph and maybe above

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 26 2008 08:22 AM
Things that go bump in the Night

Gustav is going to raise many flags at the next Advisory.
It appears to have spun up in 24 hours from a "Special Trop. Disturbance" to an 80 mph Hurricane. I feel certain that the system was probably a Tropical Depression on Sunday and possibly a Tropical Storm on Sunday Night. Without RECON in there to confirm the NHC decided to hold off on the upgrade.

Gustav has raised my concern level a notch or two since yesterday. While the 80mph doesn't surprise me the change in the current Forecast Track is a bit surprising.
First, It places nearly the whole FL Peninsula in the Eastern Semicircle ( bad side) once the storm enters the GOM.

Second. While the current track (heading) is aimed at the Mouth of the Ms River. It still leave a large area for the storm to intensify and turn coastbound. Current extrapolated track is toward the SW FL Coastline and on toward Appalachicola area. This has changed a bit from the 11 AM advisory on Monday. At that time the extrrap. was aimed at the Mouth of the MS River.
Extrap. tend to move a great deal from Advisory to Advisory. Due to the Storm changing the location of the center or changes in heading direction.
(Extrap. is the black dashed line seen on the model maps.)


Once Gustav enters the GOM the forward speed and radius of winds will dictate how soon the Watches and Warnings go up.

Labor Day weekend could be spent glued to the tv's and radios. Instead of the sand and picnic tables.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 26 2008 08:43 AM
Re: Hurricane Gustav Forms in Central Caribbean 80MPH

URNT12 KNHC 260826
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 26/07:36:30Z
B. 17 deg 06 min N
071 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2986 m
D. 76 kt
E. 062 deg 011 nm
F. 141 deg 091 kt
G. 062 deg 014 nm
H. EXTRAP 984 mb
I. 8 C/ 3053 m
J. 15 C/ 3039 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0207A GUSTAV OB 16
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 0733 Z (~ 104.7mph)
RADAR DEPICTED RAGGED EDGE EYEWALL, VARIABLE 20-25 NM,
ADDITIONAL INNER BAND WSW-N
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 234 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR


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