MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 12:08 PM |
Hurricane Gustav Over Haiti
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Original Update
Hurricane Gustav has increased to a 90MPH Hurricane this morning, and is approaching the tip of Haiti.
The forecast track has been adjusted westward, bringing Florida mostly out of the Cone except for the Keys, however it may become an issue in the Gulf we'll have to watch later this week.
For now, Haiti, and the south coast of Cuba will have to watch it.
If Gustav was not enough, there are 3 other waves in the tropics that could develop too.
More to Come soon.
Discuss models and future possibilities for Gustav in the lounge.
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Gustav|07|7|2008|2|Gustav}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|95L|95|8|2008|3|Wave 95L}} 2:00AM Update
| Evan Johnson |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 12:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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woah, boy, that forecast track sure changed quickly. i dont want to see a west to east curveture once it hits that gulf though.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 12:44 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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I think it would be unwise at this point to say that Florida is completely out of the equation. There is still over 225 NM and 300NM of average forecast error on either side of the position points for days 4 and 5, respectively. Should the high pressure that is forecast to build on top of Gustav not be as strong as anticipated, there could be a rather large shift in track and intensity. The official discussion this morning said that the models still have to become more stable before they become more confident in their forecast. Let's not cast a shadow of a doubt that this storm isn't less predictable than any of the rest.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 12:53 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Also a timing question. If the track verifies it calls for a slow down and that's a long time when things can change.
If he intensifies to Cat 3 he can build his own high aloft and models could change.
long way to go before any complacency.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 12:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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The stronger it gets the better chance it has to move more northerly.The polar affect could take place and also the HIGH will not push it as far west as the models now predict.Also the position of the High is critical,if it does not expand further west or south west and Gustav gets stronger than it will travel more to the north.It will need to be heading wnw by this afternoon or early tonight to stay on the projected path.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 01:01 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Yes, you're right! Here's part of the 5am discussion:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE
MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS
MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV...LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY
OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE
GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
As we all learned with FAY, timing is everything. What, where and when with Gustav will depend on the atmospheric conditions around him as he moves...and hopefully, maybe that west movement will pan out. At this point, everyone along the entire Gulf Coast needs to be watching and paying attention..especially with the upcoming holiday weekend coming up.
| Evan Johnson |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 01:38 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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yes i think its safe to use fay as a example, they had it about 20 miles off shore of the southern florida west coast. after it intensified a bit, that forecast path had it going through ft meyers northeast.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 01:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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I was looking at this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html
Is there any way that the thunderstorms at 65W 25N
could erode or effect the HIGH pressure ridge that is to keep Gustav heading more Westerly?
(personal reference was removed.)
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 02:33 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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It is easy to visualize the words in the discussion by studying the WV loop and a shift to the west is very imminent. However, what is the future of that High? If it remains in place for the next several days, the current steering is back over Florida, taking Gustav over the western edge of Cuba into the GOM and back to the NE...this is a very similar set up to Charlie in 2004. Someone else said timing is everything, and the push of that trough in the Southwest US to the east will be the big factor in how all this plays out.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 02:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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I'm watching that trough, too. It's position relative to Gustav is going to be really important in a few days. The winds over the GOM are from the SW for now and that would indicate a northeasterly turn if they persist into next week.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 03:20 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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The water vapor loop offers a lot of questions and not a lot of answers.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Gustav is really close to 95 all things considered and the area between them is quite narrow.
And the high pressure that is building in is moving to the SW and it makes me curious as to how
Gustav is going to move west? I'm even wondering if it is possible that he slows down and loops a little bit in place
until the steering currents settle down.
Have any models shown anything like that? I don't believe so but from watching the WV loop and the storm itself
I am wondering.
See clearer on the floater the effect of the high feeding in on it's left side.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 03:49 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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A couple of wider views to consider which show the trough axis around 95W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
Also, the westward direction of the forecast track becomes evident.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 04:03 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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I just want to comment a bit on the WV link you posted and elaborate a bit on my comments a little earlier.
There is clear evidence of the anti-cyclonic turn in the atmosphere which extends out to about 87 W and it will impact Gustav on the east very quickly. Gustave should then slide W or even a little south of West along the southern periphery of this high, along the southern coast of Cuba. The models have all grabbed this and that is how it should play out for the next several days.
That high is kind of blocked to its east and nothing seems to be moving too fast.
The trough in the midwest seems to me to be breaking down a bit, and even an anti cyclonic flow may be developing. This has been picked up on by the European model which keeps Gustave on the left of the track all the way to Mexico.
However, over the SW an upper low seems to be developing and there is a push of drier air down from the NW. If this pushes eastward in the next three days, this should have an effect on where Gustave goes.
The track looks good for three days, but beyond that ???
(personal reference removed.)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 05:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Apologize for the site issues, once again were getting very large amounts of traffic (above 1500 simultaneous) and we're tweaking the site to fix the issues.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 05:37 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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recon just turned inbound from the SW side of Haiti... I do see the eye is trying to show up a again on sats... and i think Gustav is making landfall this hour along the coast of central Haiti... Outflow in all quads looks good... so i don't think will see to much in disruption on the the system as it crosses the the land mass.
looks like around 18.1667N 72.7667W was the landfall.. recon flew into the coast then turned out... pressure maybe 979mb... hard to tell
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 05:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Some of what I posted earlier today in the Forecast Lounge is appropriate to repeat here:
If you wish to thank someone or respond to a specific individual, use the Private Message capability - CFHC is not a Chat Room.
The one line post rule still applies, i.e., don't make them - there are very few exceptions to this. Don't simply state the obvious. One-line posts consume bandwidth and that can become a problem when the site gets busy - and the site is starting to get busy.
Don't get into an argumentative discussion with someone - take it off thread via the PM capability.
Your help on these items will allow the site to manage the processing burden and prevent it from crashing (again).
ED
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 06:05 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
...GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
Maby Gustave is trying to what fay did not do, plow right into cuba and runn straght up the back bone over land.
Trying to figure the possibility the hurricane killer islands protect the SE and Gulf of mexico again (YAY). I do think about the poor people down in hati right now wonder how much warning they actully got in remote area's.
Imangine going through fay only to wake up a week later with 95mph winds on your door step.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 06:23 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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I'm hoping for a track over the mountainous areas of Cuba to rip it up fairly good but taking a dispassionate look at the WV loop I don't see it happening.
The path just south of Cuba and either into the slot or just east of it looks right through the next three days or so. That's very bad news in that it likely sticks a Cat 3 into the southern Gulf in about 3-4 days.
Beyond that its more fluid; I can see an argument for the further-west path but the GFDL is the closest to my thinking at the present time, and that's very un-good, as a quite-small deviation east on that means that I get to meet Gustav personally, and I'd really rather not. The ugly is that someone's going to get some really bad news in the next week or so; I don't see how that is avoided.
(Forecast Lounge material was removed.)
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 06:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Not to minimize the potential winds, but the 124 is at flight level, I believe. I believe that's somewhat above the surface winds.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 06:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Looks like the track is now definitely more WNW which will keep it over the peninsula that much longer and will diminish intensity. Interesting I could not actuate the link to the tropical forecast positions on the long floater loop. Does that mean the track is being modified?
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 06:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Recon is approaching the eye from the SE with the eye obviously already inland over Hispaniola. Should be very interesting to see the data!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 07:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Gustav has continued to make its move more westward over the past few hours. I feel a west path will continue for at least the next 2 days with a slight jog to the WNW in 24hrs. Land interaction is happening with the high mountains probably is going to cause him to weaken somewhat over the next 12hrs.
| SeaMule |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 07:24 PM |
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map of Haiti
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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Hispaniola_lrg.jpg
topography of Haiti....looks like it running west of the mountains....on a wnw track...
| DonaldT |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 08:20 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Hello everyone...I'm new to this forum, just joined today.
I've always enjoyed studying the weather, including tropical systems, since I was a teenager and am glad to have the opportunity to discuss that here.
These are my general thoughts on Hurricane Gustav:
I'm sure everyone else feels the same way, but it is quite alarming how quickly Gustav has developed (even for being a small storm). I guess big things do come in small packages after all....
I really hope this thing doesn't get into the Gulf...that would mean serious trouble.
I guess we'll see what happens....you just never know with these storms.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 08:21 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Following the center on the vis sat loop it looks like the center went in and is now headed more WSW almost off the southern coast. It is definitely not moving northwest anymore
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 08:35 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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How did you come to this conclusion? Till the Hispaniola coast it had been clearly on a NW-track, bending a bit more to the west. The eye had been slightly visible in visible sat. But that isn´t the case anymore and you can´t judge it from sat only now. I hope recon is long enough in the area to catch the center on the other side of small land tongue of Hispaniola!
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 09:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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eye visible on Cuba radar
still looks to be moving at least WNW if not still NW, but eyewall seems to clearly be weakening quite rapidly
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 10:03 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Will be interesting to see what effects the mountains of Haiti will have on Gustav. Recall Fay also transversed this terrain but with no llc only mid and upper level development, therefore it really did not have much effect on her. Mountainous terrain could effect an organized and stacked system with a llc, such as Gustav much differently. Have to keep in mind, however, crossing at the narrowest point
unfortunately will most likely only postpone the inevitable intensification.
(the last frames of vis sat almost seems center moving right along spine of sw pen of Haiti, if this is case could disrupt circulation even more)
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 10:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Current surface analysis: You can see the periphery of the ridge over Florida and into the gulf. This image is includes the entire northern hemisphere so it skews the Conus 90 deg from what we are used to looking at but, I liked the high resolution, it will also refresh so save this link.
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/nws1.gif
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 11:27 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Quote:
eye visible on Cuba radar
still looks to be moving at least WNW if not still NW, but eyewall seems to clearly be weakening quite rapidly
You can't tell ANYTHING from Cuba's radar. The resolution is not what we're used to in the U.S., so while it appears that the eyewall is weak, it might not be weak at all.
| DonaldT |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 26 2008 11:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Quote:
Following the center on the vis sat loop it looks like the center went in and is now headed more WSW almost off the southern coast. It is definitely not moving northwest anymore
How is that possible...I thought Gustav was supposed to be making a more Westward turn eventually....
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 01:40 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Radar and satellite looked at over a short period of time is interesting but not very useful in determining the track of any storm. You have to look at it over time. There are plenty of other ways to look at it, but I've found that the BoatUS graphic gives a clear picture of what is going on as far as how a storm is tracking, including the current wind field.
Bill
| Chasingthespin |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 02:29 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Thanks for that weather site. I can always use a new one. I hope when we
wake up tomorrow that Gustav hasn't form a solid eye. I don't like the looks
of this storm already....
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 04:36 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Just a note, as a rule in systems like this to try to keep the hype down, we're moving discussions of models past 3 days or so (ie, after it clears Cuba) to the forecast Lounge, right now I wouldn't bet on any of them, and mentioning particular locations along the US Gulf coast is definite lounge territory.
The system is still over Hati, and affected it, downgraded to a Tropical storm, and has Cuba to get past first, and I'm not sold on the models, I think the NHC's cone is something to watch, but I do not believe the track will pan out exactly as the line goes. Look in the lounge for other guesses.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 06:06 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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have to say i can tell stewart appears to be on top of things again at the NHC... he sure was missed when he was called to duty over seas. have to say the 11pm discussion is nicely written, and i agree and am thinking the samething on Gustav down the road... needless to say its going to be a busy labor day weekend in the NHC office! Everyone living on the Central Gulf Coast needs to watch this system, just to hard to say where its going at this point, thats just to far down the road... and a lot will happen between now and then... i saw that the price of barrel is starting to go back up... i can only imagin what will happen after this weekend...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 06:24 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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based on the two recon passes i have seen.. Gustav is starting to exit the coast... interesting note... eyewall was open on the NE side... but another pass shows there is an circular eyewall now... about 14miles wide... still open on NE side... but sounds like its exiting the coast... i expect it will take about 12 hrs before Gustav starts going back down in pressure... and up in winds...
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 07:26 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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I agree with this. The westward turn and slow down came in the wrong moment for Gustav, so that Hispaniola has taken a stronger toll on Gustav then expected.
And I hope for the longer term, that the worst doesn´t become true!
| hurricf |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 10:27 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Gustav Strengthening
http://www.worldwidemeteo.com/
Please post your reasoning when making one liner posts. Which are Not permitted~danielw
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 11:02 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 125 KT.
89.5W thats looks familiar.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 11:38 AM |
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AFD Excerpts
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Morning AFD Excerpts from around the Gulf Coast Region.
NWS Jackson, MS
...BY SUNDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
SAG INTO SRN MS WHERE THEY STALL OUT FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A 590DM 500MB ANTICYCLONE BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE
AL/TN BORDER. BY THIS TIME...HURC GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE CRANKING
THROUGH THE SRN/ERN/CENTRAL GULF REGION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CHOOSE. THE 00Z HWRF NOW ADVERTISING SUB 900MB PRESSURES FOR THIS
STORM SO ALL INTERESTS AROUND THE GULF SHOULD KEEP TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.
Bold Emphasis added~danielw
OBVIOUSLY OUR FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE OF
HURC GUSTAV WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING EVEN WEAKER
STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE GULF. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE NERN GULF MOVING ESE. THIS
2-300MB TROUGH COULD VERY WELL SERVE TO SLOW/TURN OR EVEN LOOP GUSTAV
BEFORE IT CAN PROGRESS TOO FAR WEST...WE`LL BE IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
ON THIS ONE.
NWS Slidell, La
...LATEST OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV PLACES THE STORM IN THE MIDDLE
GULF PRECARIOUSLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST OFFICE WITH THE IMPLICATION OF LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...70-80 PERCENT POPS AND RA+ WEATHER ELEMENT BASED ON
TRACK EXTRAPOLATION...THOUGH THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. THE PROBLEM IS THE REQUIREMENT OF A
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH A PROBABLISTIC UNCERTAINTY
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING. OF COURSE...CHANGES WILL BE
FORTHCOMING AS FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN IN TIME.
NWS Tallahassee,Fl
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FROM THE FL STRAITS INTO THE SERN CONUS, AND A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NWRN GOMEX. THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD STEER
HURRICANE GUSTAV ON A NWLY COURSE INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND PER THE LATEST NHC FCST TRACK. OUTLIERS ARE THE GFDL
AND ECMWF WHICH ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NWWD TOWARD THE TX
COAST. THE 00Z GFS TAKES GUSTAV FURTHER N ACROSS THE FL STRAITS LATE
SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY MEANDERS THE SYSTEM OVER THE ERN GOMEX. DUE
TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF GUSTAV, LOW CONFIDENCE
DICTATES NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS. BASED ON
THE PROJECTED POSITION OF GUSTAV BY 120 HRS, WILL CONSIDER RAISING
WINDS AND SEAS (MAINLY SWELL) FOR OUR OFFSHORE LEGS BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
NWS Tampa,Fl
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL TRACK
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
THIS MORNING ARE OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGES
TO INHERITED GRIDS AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL (POPS ~40% TEMPS ~90) THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
NOTE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON GUSTAV...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NWS Key West,Fl
....LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS MAY GRADUALLY ERODE ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TIP OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY EXTENT OF WEAKENING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH THAT THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT OUR SERVICE AREA. IN FACT...PENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WITH DEEPENING AND INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATES FOR THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 11:51 AM |
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Re: AFD Excerpts
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Excellent read of the forecast for different cities. The one constant is that the effects from Gustav will depend upon weak steering currents. And, often storms down there encounter weak currents this time of year that would not be there in another month.
Gustav is classic. Looks exactly like Ernesto in ways when he was there.
But, it's a different year. I don't believe the models called for a stall, a slow down in forward motion but not a stall.
So, we have to wait and see what happens as it will throw off timing on models and future tracks.
Maybe not a lot but you can't have one part of the forecast be so off without a change in something down the road.
The ULL to his north east really pushed down on him a lot last night causing him to slow down and also creating some shear I think. Not the ideal set up. Either way... interested to see what we see later today.
He still is spinning pretty well and has a nice strong band to his SW that is continuing to bring up moisture from the warm Carib.