MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 12:05 PM |
Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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Gustav has weakened since it has slowly crossed Haiti, and the land interaction along with moderate wind shear should keep it a tropical storm for a good part of today, however, the storm is moving generally northwestward. It still seems westward enough to keep it south of Cuba for most of the time in the shorter term track.
A Hurricane Warning remains for the eastern Cuban provinces, and a Hurricane Watch for the remainder of Cuba as well as the Caymans. Tropical Storm Warnings and a Hurricane Watch are up for Jamaica as well.
As Gustav moves westward south of Cuba, it will encounter very favorable water temperatures, so it has a chance to strengthen into a hurricane again, and possibly a strong hurricane. It may move a bit further westward and go through the Yucatan channel or clip the very western edge of Cuba, after this begins much more speculation. How much it strengthens while in the Caribbean depends on how much land interaction it has with Cuba (if it stays roughtly 50-60 miles or more off the coast, then it will likely strengthen more).
There remains the potential is there for Gustav to become a major hurricane when and if it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
The track beyond that is controlled by a low pressure trough around the Midwest, which could force the storm east or west of the current NHC forecast track. The more likely scenario of the two (right now) is the western one. This is forecast lounge territory though at this point. I suspect Gulf forecasts won't be all that reliable until Saturday.
Things could change, especially if Gustav moves more slowly than expected. so much of the Gulf will need to keep an eye on Gustav.
The wave known as 95L is also still worth tracking over the next few days, as it may get close to the US before turning more north.
Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Gustav|07|7|2008|2|Gustav}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|95L|95|8|2008|3|Wave 95L}} 2:00AM Update
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 02:32 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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This might belong in a different forum
Is it true that when a storm passes through an area of water that was previously traversed by another storm within the last week the SST's will be some what lower? I know it won't matter with this storm, but just a general question. I heard about that some where on here last year or another site.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 02:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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Yes that is true to a extent, it just matters how much updwelling the previous storm did. Some may say the rainfall, but I never agree to that cause its a deep body of water and you would need 5 ft of rainfall to have a slight temp drop of 1-2 dg. Now if you get a inch of rain in your swimming pool, thats different, you will notice a few deg drop from the previous day.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 02:42 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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11:00 a little shift to the right in track...now dead on NO, but a long ways to go. Discussion says equal chance of 1, 2, or 3.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_5day.html#a_topad
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 06:47 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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I was under the impression it was widely accepted that the winds churning the waters caused the upwelling and lowering of SSTs? Or am I misunderstanding something here?
As for Gustav - last few visible frames show a decent blow up of convection near the CoC, which appears to be to the north(and maybe still a bit on land) of the western part of the southern Haitian peninsula. The continued motion to the W or WNW seems likely. And although the NHC noted some northerly shear at 11AM EST, I don't see much, if any, at this time.
EDIT: If javlin's recon post is the latest one then they put it almost exactly where I thought it was.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 06:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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No, the center is already well to the north of the peninsula. Look at the center fixes of recon. And if I compare the last two center fixes its still a slow WNW-NW-movement!
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 07:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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Latest recon fix almost says stationery for the most part really .I would guess the 11am by the NHC then was an estimate.
URNT12 KNHC 271829
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 27/18:06:10Z
B. 18 deg 54 min N
073 deg 58 min W
C. 850 mb 1432 m
D. 45 kt
E. 305 deg 4 nm
F. 140 deg 031 kt
G. 032 deg 088 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 16 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1526 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C16
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0507A GUSTAV OB 04
MAX FL WIND 31 KT NE QUAD 17:40:40 Z
RADAR INDICATED SPIRAL BAND PATTERN
also has her listed as an open wave.Recieved emailed me for me to make the edit.I see OPEN W thinking=open wave maybe as Hugh mentioned open west(I think he might be right).maybe someone can clarify
Edit: OPEN W means that they found an eyewall that was open on the western side of the feature. --Clark
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 08:36 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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It would be open west I believe. There is still a low level circulation visible on satellite. It is, however, seriously lacking on the west side outflow. I think it is still having some problems with WS.
Also, its still classified in the 5pm
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 08:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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It´s a circular eye with an diameter of 16 nm, which is open to the west.
Current recon shows that it´s only a weak TS and it will take quite some time to recover.
| SeaMule |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 08:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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as slow as it is going..it's gonna have ample time to recover....
it will ramp up forward speed once the full effects of the high pressure system steering it take effect.
on a side note....there are (3) MORE interesting features....two remarkably close to Gustav....
this will be an interesting week or two.
Edited for content..CA, Moderator
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 09:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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The key to Gustav's future track is the projected development of a weakness in the subtropical ridge across the lower Mississippi valley over the next 2-3 days. Without this feature, Gustav would more than likely continue WNW toward upper Mexico or lower Texas; with this feature, it will likely be drawn NW toward the northern Gulf coast. The key will be where this feature sets up, assuming it does set up. Watch this closely over the next couple of days; no one along the Gulf coast is out of the threat zone with this one right now.
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 09:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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It certainly looks like Gustav has been hindered by a combination of the slow movement of the storm over Haiti, the terrain in the area, and the ULL digging in NE of the storm. I'm not sure what else would have caused this weakening. Given the weakened state of the storm, is it possible for the center to relocate under the storms on the SE side of the system? Or, does a tropical storm need to be even weaker for the center to relocate to a different area of the storm? It almost appears from some of the satellite imagery that this may be happening and that the center could try to move an area south of the peninsula that the storm just crossed. Of course, I have been working all day, so my eyes may simply be deceiving me.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 27 2008 10:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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Quote:
It certainly looks like Gustav has been hindered by a combination of the slow movement of the storm over Haiti, the terrain in the area, and the ULL digging in NE of the storm. I'm not sure what else would have caused this weakening. Given the weakened state of the storm, is it possible for the center to relocate under the storms on the SE side of the system? Or, does a tropical storm need to be even weaker for the center to relocate to a different area of the storm? It almost appears from some of the satellite imagery that this may be happening and that the center could try to move an area south of the peninsula that the storm just crossed. Of course, I have been working all day, so my eyes may simply be deceiving me.
You have a good grasp on the factors behind its weakening. It is possible for the center to relocate underneath the convection -- and to continually do so while it remains weak -- but not necessarily a given.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 12:32 AM |
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previously-currently
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had a pretty atrocious tendency to overestimate what fay was capable of. fay was the ultimate 'huggy storm'. it just never could stop abusing itself with land interaction enough to go into a serious deepening phase. not that it's any consolation to all the folks who got flooded out by the storm. the tornado count may even end up around fifty on this one.
hopefully gustav won't be as much of a forecasting difficulty. it looked a little more straightforward yesterday before the center got stuck on the lower peninsula of haiti and stayed mostly disconnected from low-level inflow. that shouldn't stay as much a factor for a whole lot longer... it isn't hard to envision the official forecast for the storm finally starting to take shape. an organized storm making a long arcing run across the middle of the gulf over labor day weekend usually delivers a massive impact wherever it goes. we can only hope that something will prevent this, but it has the look of a classic case.
away further east is that developing 95L system northeast of the leewards. most of the global guidance wants to feed it northward through a ridge gap. the quicker it develops the more likely this will happen, and it does look to be developing. nhc will probably start issuing advisories over the next couple of cycles. a few of the models prefer to block it and shove it westward under the ridge poised to set up over the eastern u.s. for the next few days... looks less likely at this point.
more action coming across from further east... wave/low nearing 15/35 has a nice curved signature but very little convection. it does seem like the saharan air layer is doing it's job.. but of course these waves can just develop further west, which in the long run makes them less apt to recurve. another wave is coming off. for the next three weeks this ought to persist, until the atlantic begins to transition into a fall configuration.
HF 0132z28august
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 03:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
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Well it looks like Gustav might be moving W finally with a ball and chain attached to him and I would think the position is at least by IF2 at about 18.9N and 75.1W and little S of the NHC points.I would think also that as he strengthens again the UL steering may come more into play and the WNW track back to the NHC pts. are taken.It will be interesting to see how the 00Z models handle today and tonight.
Looks to still be getting sheared definitly see the center oou there at 18.8N and 75.5W now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 04:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW
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He's doing much better now that he changed directions. Suppose that gave him a new perspective as well as a lease on life. He has had convection blowing up near his center and he moves off in the direction of warmer water.
Not sure how this will change the tracks much except for timing.
He really was blocked from going w or wnw by dry air that had filled in between cuba and Haiti.. he was trapped there, the only real way out was to go WSW. He has a chance now to organize more.
But he has to really build up a center as he had barely formed when he hit Haiti and he does not handle land as well as Fay did.
Keep watching, he's fighting tonight.
Curious on next run of tracks.
And, blown away by how little attention 95 is getting in all of the melodrama on what Gustav could be considering the models bend 95 back towards the states and where Gustav is small, 95 seems bigger.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 04:40 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW
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short-term movement wont have much of a effect on model runs. Afterall some models did show a jog wsw for 12hrs or so (as noted by the NHC), Gustav would have to stall for 12hrs or more to have some kind of impact or head more south instead of wsw.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 07:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW
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And it happened: Center reformed in the strongest convection to the south: 18 N, 75.3 W! Doesn´t seem to reach fully to the ground. So Gustav is on full collision track to Jamaica! Can´t believe, that it`ll survive this as a TS. For now it´s deepening: pressure has dropped to 995 hPa.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 07:19 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW
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Well Gustav has the limelight, but FNMOC now have 95L as 08L so looks like another one to watch! Gustav is heading straight for Jamaica, and with what appears to be a reformation of the centre to the southeast of the previous position, the system looks likely to hit Jamaica as a strong Tropical Storm.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 08:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW
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Early indications are that by the start of next week, Eight may actually get shoved to the west-southwest in response to the strengthening ridge. The Greater Antilles, Bahamas and Florida could all be in play again by the middle of next week, and perhaps sooner. With the large-scale atmospheric conditions that support tropical cyclogenesis and strengthening continuing to come together right on cue for entering what is now the climatological peak of what has already been a well-above average season so far, it has probably become somewhat reasonable to entertain even the more bullish model runs, and there has been no shortage of bullishness on both Gustav and now TD Eight. We'll likely get recon inside Eight soon, and then have some actual stats to compare those model runs against.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 09:11 AM |
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Gustav rapidly intensifying moving SW
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Wow! I guess we`ll a rapidly intensifying Gustav in the next hours! Pressure drop of 6 hPa in two hours (995-989 hPa). Surface winds up to 46 kt and it´s moving SW! So it`ll pass Jamaica to the southand also maintain it´s connection to the strongest feeder band and so it may continue to intensify to the south of Jamaica!. Ok, I´m quite a bit surprised.
edit: Another wow! In a band to the east of the center 55 kt! Looks reliable!
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 10:32 AM |
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Re: Gustav rapidly intensifying moving SW
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Ok, I´m a bit puzzled now. Surface winds up to 76 kt in the NE eyewall??? Flight level winds were 67 kt and very heavy rain rates! But the SW part is considerably weaker and center pressure around 986 hPa. Let´s see the vortex data message!
The satellite reprensation is breathtaking! Must have been a very bumpy recon ride!
edit: Ok, the 67 kt are confirmed, but they didn´t report the 76 kt surface winds. Must be absolutely wild in there: center made a notheastward jog!!! And eyewall must be less than 50% complete.
Alltogether: Looks like, that we have Hurricane Gustav again!
edit2: Ok, an explanation for the strenght in the NE/E and the realtive weakness in the SW: If you look on the last microwave pass, you see the mass of the extremely strong convection to the east and the center open to the W/SW!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 11:28 AM |
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Gustav intensifying
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WTNT42 KNHC 281113
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF
GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 11:52 AM |
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Re: Gustav intensifying
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I removed the word Rapid from the intensification header in my last post.
At the current rate of intensification I may have to add it back to the post.
RECON just found a 983.1mb pressure on the latest pass through the eye.
113300 1752N 07539W 983.1 mb
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 12:04 PM |
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New Thread
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New Thread is up. Please post there.
Thanks Mike.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....=true#Post83179
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 12:08 PM |
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Re: Gustav intensifying
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Strongest winds not around the center, but in a band to the NE: 67 kt flight level/70 kt surface. Must be very dynamic in the center region. I guess, it will take some time till we see a fully formed eye. And there is still the issue about the future track: How close it`ll come to Jamaica?
Please read the above post...New Thread started...