MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 11:54 AM |
Gustav Over Jamaica, Hanna Holding Weak
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7:30PM
Tropical Storm Gustav has moved inland over Jamaica, and they are feeling strong tropical storm force winds there right now. (See Jamaica links below for more information)
After Jamaica, the Cayman Islands will need to prepare, and then perhaps western Cuba. Beyond that, the models are still not completely trustworthy, the entire large cone needs to be watching, which includes Northeastern Texas east toward the Western End of the Florida Panhandle. Unfortunately, the features are complex enough to not know much more until Gustav gets around Cuba. The confidence in the track beyond 3 days is very low.
Hanna has been fighting with an upper low level pressure most of the day, which has kept the system weak, Hanna is another long range system that will have the Bahamas and the Southeastern US watching well into next week.
The low pressure area in the Bay of Campeche (96L) has a shot at becoming a depression or storm before landfall, but it will run out of time quickly.
There are two other waves in the Atlantic, one east of Hanna, another off Africa, that are also worth watching. This is a very busy time in the tropics, unlike anything we have seen in the past 2 years.
8:45AM
Judging from reports and Best Track, it appears TD#8 has formed into Tropical Storm Hanna, the next NHC advisory at 11AM EDT should reflect this.
Original Update
Good morning.
Things are busy in the tropics, today, with Gustav and newly formed Tropical Depression 8.
Tropical Depression 8 has formed in the Atlantic from 95L northeast of the Leeward Islands, it's general motion is toward the west and northwest for the next few days, and may meander a bit, and after that is a bit open.
Chances of a US threat are fairly low right now, but gaining and definitely in territory that the Bahamas, Florida, and the southeast coast will want to watch. Most models have it moving generally west northwest, and then slowing down and perhaps moving a bit southwest, after which is anyone's guess. A Blocking high is what likely may force the system back southwest or west, or force it to meander.
There is a chance for two land falling systems to take the news away next week.
If TD#8 were to affect the US, it would be 8-10 days from now.
It will likely strengthen later today, and the next name up is Hannah.
So where will it really go, discuss that part and the models in the Lounge for TD#8
Gustav weakened a great deal last night with land interaction in Haiti, but has regained itself quite a bit, and moved erratically southwest on top of it. It will likely be a hurricane again by the next update around 11AM.
Tropical Storm Gustav has moved Southwest and may move "Around" Jamaica, Hurricane Warnings are now up for the island. Gustav has moved further south/west than expected. Still much too early to tell what impacts will be in the Gulf of Mexico and probably will remain that way until sometime later this weekend.
The Cayman Islands should begin to prepare as well, as Gustav may be fairly strong by the time it nears there.
Lounge for Gustav
More to come soon.
Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna
Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
{{StormCarib}}
Jamaican Media
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaica Observer (Newspaper)
Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio
Other
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
{{StormLinks|Gustav|07|7|2008|2|Gustav}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|Hanna|08|8|2008|3|Hanna}}
NOTE ON 96L Images have been delayed in opening, the current 96L is in the Bay of Campeche (Southwest Gulf of Mexico)
{{StormLinks|96L|96|9|2008|1|96L}}
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 12:08 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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Actually models are pointing towards a US landfall with Hanna (named by navy hurricane center as of now). Hanna is likely to strengthen according to the NHC and the track takes it over the ULL then a high builds to stop it from moving out to sea and shoves it west towards Florida, but North Carolina could be a good bet if the trough that recurves Gustav is stronger than we think. All in all, both of them too close for comfort.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 12:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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I went back and clarified. Still I hate looking at the potential for next week, both in the Gulf and the Atlantic. Gustav with it's models going back and forth, moving southwest, and now TD#8, which will probably be Hannah Very soon based on T-Numbers, are going to make this one of the busiest weeks since 2005.
The same high pressure system that keeps Gustav away from Florida may force TD#8 closer.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 01:03 PM |
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Yet Another Area to Watch
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Persistant area of convection with what appears to have High Pressure overhead in the Southern Bay of Campeche.
| Jeff B |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 01:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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The local Met in Orlando explained Gustav is expected to work it's way around a high over Florida. He also said this high is scheduled to move out over the Atlantic next week and will block TD#8 from moving out to sea and move it back towards Florida.
My question is this: If the high moves earlier or if Gustav moves slower, is there a chance Gustav makes the turn toward Florida? It seems one of the most recent models has it going into the big bend area, Is Tampa or south in the mix?
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 01:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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How close do these two (Gustav and Hannah) have to be before some sort of Fujiwara effect comes into play? Hannah looks to be moving closer. Wouldn't this effect cause them to slightly pinwheel off of each other if they are close enough?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 02:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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Looks like Hanna is exposed now... i think the center is on the west side of covection... that ULL to the west is winning out right now. I kinda susprised if they upgrade to a TS with the way she's looking on sats this hour.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 02:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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The CMC was calling that models back. I don't think that will happen now as Gustav seems to have done well going WSW.
More curious on how any development in the BOC could affect Gustav?
What a traffic jam out there today..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 02:52 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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Kind of looks like a flight pattern for an air traffic control tower! Too early to tell but think of the possibility of Hanna cutting through Florida, back out into the GOM and making a second landfall in the central gulf coast behind Gustav. Very ugly!
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 03:39 PM |
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NHC update quite conservative
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The NHC is really very conservative about the intensity! With the strong intensifiying trend during recon presence some time ago and the radically improving structure recently Gustav should be quite stronger! So we have to wait for the next recon mission to confirm this!
| MillardDJr |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 03:47 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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I like the loop, but it reminds me of the satellite pictures from "Day after tomorrow" with 3 disturbances all lined up in a row.
That being said, it will be interesting to see how these 3 areas interplay over the next several days.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 04:26 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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What kind effect will Invest 96L that is looking really impressive IMHO have on Gustav ? Will it allow him to go more west ? If 96L does form into a TD today we will be only 2 storms away from a season that looks like the 2005 season. Good luck to all of you are in the path of Gustav & Hanna
James n Mobile, AL
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 04:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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You guys are probably going to tell me I'm crazy. But the on the WV loop that swirl at 22N, 65W looks to be building up and sucking up the convection from TD8 and pulling it into itself.
Is that what is happening?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 05:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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Looks to me that Gustav made landfall on the eastern tip of Jamica... just as the eye was trying to form, per sats. I still think the forecast on Gustav is a little fast after it gets into the GOM... but models have be consistant on at LA as the center of the cone...
jamaica radar with velocity
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage1.asp
is it me or did they place a 1008mb low in the BOC with that convection/96L per NAVY?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 05:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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The Mets on here are better at this analysis than I am, however, what I thin we are seeing is a mid level circulation that will help to push Gus South but will not have a diminishing influence long term on his development. I could be way off base, but that's what these "old" eyes see.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 06:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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Recon is in the storm again:
Center is just on the eastern tip of Jamaica and moves obviously westward with a higher speed. So the center will move over southern Jamaica and Gustav will be tortured again.
Here some data from High density Observations:
Minimum pressure: 982 hpa
175130 1759N 07612W 6967 03009 9823 +144 +110 160009 012 999 999 03
Maximum Flight level Wind: 71 kt
174800 1749N 07610W 6961 03057 9983 +055 +055 229061 071 099 042 03
Max. Surface Wind: 115 kt!!??
180300 1803N 07603W 6987 03042 9990 +062 +062 153064 064 115 033 03
Why is it so high? An error?
edit: In the vortex data message they have 35 kt as max. surface wind 97nm easterly from the center!!??
edit2: I see, the very last number in the line, which is 3, indicates that the surface wind data measured with SFMR is questionable. So I think, they just took the last value, which was ok, and used this in the Vortex Data Message. The real value for the max. surface wind should be somewhere in the sixties!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 06:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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Quote:
You guys are probably going to tell me I'm crazy. But the on the WV loop that swirl at 22N, 65W looks to be building up and sucking up the convection from TD8 and pulling it into itself.
Is that what is happening?
That upper level low has persisted for quite a while. It is imposing SWestery shear over Hannah for now. Whether it moves away from Hannah or not will determine whether or not Hannah remains viable. I would not be surprised to see Hannah downgraded at 5 PM.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 08:28 PM |
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Gustav SHIPS
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** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/27/08 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 08:54 PM |
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Re: Gustav SHIPS
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The 5pm update is out now and the prssure is up from 983mb to 985mb. However, the winds are still at 70. Hopefully the interaction with Jamaica will decrease the windspeed at 8pm. Still moving to the west. The NHC forecast track has not updated yet... Waiting to see if the official forecast track changes. The 18z model consensus is in line with the earlier NHC forecast track, so it's not likely to shift much.
Ok, it's up now, and if anything, it shifted the tiniest bit to the east, but nothing to write home about.
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 28 2008 09:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Hanna Forms Northeast of Leewards, Gustav Moving Erratically, Strengthening
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Quote:
is it me or did they place a 1008mb low in the BOC with that convection?
Nope, not just you. I see it there too. And I can see some circulation within the convection in some of the lower clouds, but no sign of upper level circulations though. In any case this is Invest 96L, and appears to be moving in a slow NNW direction for the time being.
The center of Gustav appears to be on the southern coast of central Jamacia, continuing to move west. The circulation center of Hannah appears to be displaced to the west of the convection, I was curious if the ULL to the west of the system would impart either shear or other conflict with the storm, and this appears to be happening now.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 12:49 AM |
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parade time
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the north atlantic looks like it will be fairly lit up over the next few days.. and not just with those eastern/central atlantic fish storms that usually tend to be what make up the simultaneous activity. gustav is still down in the caribbean, grazing along the southern side of jamaica tonight. it keeps staying south and west of the forecast track, as land interactions keep muddling its movements, and keeping it from going into one of those sustained rapid deepening phases. still plenty of time for that. it should clear the island by early tomorrow and ought to be swelling into a scary strong hurricane as we go into the weekend. wouldn't be surprised if it completes an eyewall cycle before reaching the yucatan channel area. my idea on the storm isn't a whole lot different than the nhc, just thinking a tad to the west of their path. that's maybe more consoling to the new orleans crowd... katrina put the fear into them. i reckon the nhc landfall forecast intensity is as good as anything we can go by. the storm will be mature, have probably completed an eyewall cycle or two.. and rounding the ridge periphery, probably moving out of its ideal environment. a bottom end category 3 or high end 2 seems like the most statistically likely strength for any landfall.. the big ones are usually weakening as the come in. of course, if it catches a second or third wind as it's nearing landfall, totally different story.. but the odds don't seem to favor that. gustav may be slowing down and bending left as some models are indicating, as it comes in around tuesday, september 2nd.
hanna is a whole different can of worms.. nowhere near as straightforward as gustav. the storm is wrestling with a stuck upper low, likely winning. its convection snapped off earlier; tonight it's firing some more. the storm track should take it into the diffluent/anticyclonic flow on the north flank of the upper low tomorrow... at least sustain it if not allow it to strengthen some. pretty much the whole model camp out there is taking it wnw to nw, getting it stuck under the same ridge gustav will orbit.. then forcing it sw slowly, or taking it west. the nhc track slows it about midway between bermuda and the bahamas, nudges it west... that's a compromise. i'd bet they're low on intensity, and i think the sw movement shown on some of the globals is greatly exaggerated--i.e. don't think it will hug cuba or go through the florida straits. it's way too far out to start guessing on which section of the southeast coast will be threatened, though it looks like most signs are pointing to, you guessed it, florida. model spread won't get things right until more of them start seeing gustav as a gulf hurricane, not the weak tropical storm the gfs has. don't want to buy into anything that much yet; still no guarantee it won't find a way to slip northeast past bermuda or just stall for half a week off the east coast.
not sure why the nhc put 96L up. not sure why it got a medium rating on development chances, either. the wave/low near 20/45 is more impressive by far, a large but still largely dry system. it should continue to trudge wnw... if it develops look for it to sneak up through the break in the ridge... an offering while hanna stays low and comes west. i'd put the odds of development a tad higher than the nhc does. the emerging wave is probably rated right. the models have been seeing it the way they saw bertha. one of these two systems should have developed by the end of the month. fyi most of the globals also keep the emerging wave on a low-west track. not encouraging, but early. the next two weeks are going to be harrowing.
HF 0149z29august
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 01:09 AM |
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Re: parade time
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To me, it really looks like Gus is trying to form an eye. If you take a look at both the Water Vapor and IR loop, and look at the 00:15 UTC frame (which is currently the last frame), you will see a tiny little central spot that appears to be the point of rotation. In the frames before this, it is not apparent. Maybe I'm just seeing things, and the next couple of frames will go back to a disorganized look, as I wouldn't expect strengthening or maturation to occur while Gus is interacting with Jamaica.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 01:22 AM |
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Re: parade time
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looks to me, it looks like 96L has moved inland... around 19.5n and 97w... a small spin that appears to be in the lower levels is now over land... i don't see anything out in the BOC... 96L is looking like it may have been a mid-level blow-up and then a small vortice made it to the surface... but then moved inland into MX. we may get a newer surface feature tonight... but i'm not seeing that much in covection right now.. that could change, but we will have to wait and see
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 03:13 AM |
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Re: parade time
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Obviously the NHC feels that Gustav certainly could become a very dangerous hurricane...
HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.
If he reaches 4 or 5 actually sooner may be better (for CONUS anyway) because climatology tells us it is very difficult for enviromental conditions to persist that would sustain a cat 4 or 5 for several days out...
time will tell
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 04:33 AM |
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Re: parade time
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Hanna looks better at this point than Gustav. Looks like the shear has relaxed quite a bit earlier than the NHC had predicted...but she does looks a lot more organized than she did at 5pm.
Gustav, on the other hand, is interacting with Jamaica and looks like he is struggling..although maybe not for long...unless he decides to hit all the resorts along that lovely island which may throw a monkey wrench into the whole Gustav/Hanna scenario.
I made mention to someone else tonight...I have never seen anything out in the tropics like I have seen tonight. I thought 2004 was bad -- and I went through 3 different storms within weeks of each other..but I hope that people are not forgetting about Hanna. I will mention this as a precaution:
Three things are going to be the central focus on the news the next week or so: a) Gustav appearing to have his sights set on N.O.; b) the Labor Day weekend may have some people thinking that all is well all over the place EXCEPT for N.O. even with the "cone of error"; c) we have a lot of politics going on right now.
All of us need to make sure we pay very close attention to all of the tropical traffic going on out there. Please make sure that you have your hurricane plans in place if you don't already...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 05:09 AM |
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Re: parade time
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Check this WV loop out...you can see the weakening in the ridge and the high building in over the Atlantic. I know it's only a loop, but it almost appears as if Gustav is moving pole-ward with Hanna reacting by moving westward.
Gustav and Hanna
Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong...just my opinion on what I am seeing.
| xxflcyclonexx |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 05:15 AM |
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Re: parade time
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Great advice Colleen, so much going on in the world right now hopefully everybody will be prepared.
The Cayman Islands government's most recent advisory now says they expects hurricane conditions on Grand Cayman by late night Friday. Here's part of the advisory:
Published 28th August, 11:29pm
Tropical Storm Gustav update: 11 p.m. Thursday, 28 August 2008
Key messages:
1. A hurricane WARNING is in effect for the Cayman Islands.
2. Tropical Storm Gustav is expected to become a category 1 hurricane as it moves past Jamaica tonight.
3. Grand Cayman can expect tropical storm-force winds from the north to northwest by tomorrow evening (Friday, 29 August). Wind direction will shift southwest by late Friday night, with a peak in wind speed to hurricane force winds (74 mph, with higher gusts) by late night Friday.
4. The Sister Islands can expect tropical storm-force winds tomorrow afternoon (Friday, 29 August) from an east-northeasterly direction, veering to a southeasterly direction by evening. Winds over the Sister Islands are expected to peak at just above storm force (65mph, with higher gusts) by tomorrow evening.
5. At 10:00 p.m., the centre of Tropical Storm Gustav was located near 17.8 degrees north and 77.3 degrees west, or 210 miles southeast of the Sister Islands, and 275 miles east to southeast of Grand Cayman. Gustav is moving westerly at near 7 mph, with maximum sustained winds of near 70 mph.
6. Three to five inches of rainfall are expected, so some flooding of low-lying areas is likely. All residents should take necessary precautions.
7. Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate from mid-Friday morning. All marine interests should therefore be in safe harbour, and remain there until further notice.
8. Owen Roberts International Airport is now in full emergency mode, streamlining the departure check in process in tent facilities outside the terminal building.
9. Because of Gustav's unpredictability and strength, residents are encouraged to check local weather updates early in the morning.
http://www.caymanprepared.ky/portal/page?_pageid=1143,3248590&_dad=portal&_schema=portal
"All scheduled flights on Saturday, August 30th have been cancelled."
More Cayman Islands flight info:
http://www.caymanprepared.ky/portal/page?_pageid=1143,3248619&_dad=portal&_schema=portal
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 08:34 AM |
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Recon in Gustav
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The center is about to leave Jamaica, but must be still a bit inland or at least partly inland over southwestern Jamaica. Recon couldn´t penetrate it fully. Highest flight level/surface winds are 49 kt and pressure 992 hPa. The winds in the bands around Jamaica aren´t much weaker with 40-45 kt.
The center has to move away from Jamaica and to rebuilt a bit and then everything can happen including phases of rapid intensification
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 08:55 AM |
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Re: parade time
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Do me a favor and pull up the 850, 700, 500 (29/00Z not avbl), 300 and 200 mb height/temp with winds and height changes from NWS FTP Fax. Do a manual analysis of the contours and streamlines and you will note as does the watervapor loop the extension of the longwave trough over the Eastern US. You will note there is a clear break in the upper ridge with one center over TX and the other over FL, but no longer is there a ridge axis, but in fact a trough axis NE to SW oriented in the GOM. Whatever you're looking at over 19.5N and 97W is at best very shallow and the environment would be hostiale for development as per CIMMS Wind Shear Analysis that indicates 20 to 30 knot winds from the NW, only over land do the winds decrease to 10 knots.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 09:34 AM |
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Re: parade time
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It's almost like my body is back in the swing, waking me up at 4 to take a look at the 5am updates. Geez...
Although Gus managed to hold himself together pretty well, the pressure is up to 991, which doesn't make Gus all that much stronger than Hanna. But, as soon as he clears Jamaica, we'll have to see what happens. The NHC track has shifted a little more to the west. Some of the models seem to be tracking more to the west, as well, which probably correspond to that high over the Ohio Valley. But, of course, it's still too early to tell when all of these are going to come into play. I love how the discussion says, "There is a complicated evolution to the steering currents around Gustav during the forecast period." No kidding, right? It's mentioned in the discussion, and evident from the sats, that Gustav seems to be getting fatter.
Hanna has finally increased her windspeed. but looks like a poorly organized blob on the sats. Hanna has some shear issues that don't appear to be going away very soon. But, then again, she still has plenty of time to get her act together, so you can't rule her out yet.
I definitely agree with the post earlier about the activity level of the tropics... A little too much activity for me!
An aside.... I like to look back at previous model predictions to see which model (if any) predicted the current motion. And, from that, maybe I can say that one particular model does a better job than another at forecasting one particular storm. Anyway, looking at Clark's spaghetti plot of the models, specifically the 0Z 8/28 run, every model had Gustax going north of Jamaica (things are more evident if you go further back, but I wanted to get the closest picture I could). That was forecasting like 12/24-hours out.... The current models are forecasting several days out. I don't really have a lot of confidence in the guidence at this point....
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 10:05 AM |
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another center fix trial
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Still doesn´t look like a full penetration, because the center is at the jamaican southwest coast.. The data: max. flight level wind: 55 kt, max. surface wind 48 kt, pressure 989 hPa.
There is also a slight nothward component in the motion now. Seems to be moving WNW.