MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 01 2008 12:25 PM
Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

2:30PM EDT Update
Recon has found hurricane force winds in Hanna, and therefore Hanna Has become a Hurricane.

Tropical Storm Ike has formed from tropical depression 9 in the Central Atlantic, Advisories on Ike will begin with 5PM.



For Hanna, Hurricane Warnings are now up for the Central Bahamas, Hanna currently is moving west southwest at 5, and the forecast ahead is still very much in question all of us in the cone will want to watch it very closely.

Also a new wave 90L is now being tracked. Things are VERY busy right now in the tropics.

11AM EDT Update
Gustav has made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana.

9:30AM EDT Update
Gustav has weakened a bit to a category 2 storm still approaching the Louisiana Coastline. Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Central Atlantic from 97L, advisories should begin at 11AM, it is moving relatively quickly and we may have to deal with that next week.. Another wave near Africa (99L) May form into a depression in the next few days.

Hanna is still moving very slowly westward with the track beyond 3 days a bit uncertain, folks in the cone will want to watch it closely as it moves slowly generally toward the west over the next 2 days.

Google Map Plot of Gustav, Hanna, and TD#9

Original Update
Thankfully, Hurricane Gustav has not strengthened overnight, but remains a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, It is about 20 miles off the coast of Louisiana right now and should make landfall shortly before approaching Lafayette and moving by New Orleans to the West. Storm surge could be anywhere from 7-14 feet depending on the location, most of the storm surge should be slightly to the east of where the storm makes landfall. Godspeed to all in the affected areas. Usually with storms of this nature news is slow to come, and you usually here from those not affected well before those that are. (After all, no power, likely dangerous life conditions take precedence)



Tropical Storm Hanna is holding its own, but fighting shear, which is keeping it from strengthening. It is moving very slowly westward, but should eventually reach an area more conductive for strengthening. Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina need to watch this one because there is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast track now, slightly further west and the storm could affect Florida, more east, North Carolina, and the current National Hurricane Center Forecast track takes it in near Savannah at the South Carolina/Georgia border.



Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans

Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Lousiana Evac Maps

Video/Audio Links/Webcams
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
The Storm Report Live Video Stream from Houma, LA
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
Lake Ponchartrain Causeway
Metarie Webcam
Louisana Instacams
GregLeder Backyard webcam with battery backup
Maroonspoon multiple live coverage of Gustav New Orleans: WGNO, WWL, WDSU, WVUE (Mute individual ones to focus)
New Orleans Police Scanner (Req. Winamp)
Lousiana EM Radio Chatter
Multiple Webcams in Area from HurricaneCity


Louisiana DOT Traffic Cameras

Television/Radio
KATC In Lafayette, LA
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans

-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!


Key West Long Range Radar with hint of Gustav

Storm Surge Risks with Gustav along Louisiana

Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna

Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
{{StormCarib}}


{{radarlink|lix|New Orleans, LA Radar}}
{{radarlink|lch|Lake Charles, LA Radar}}
{{StormLinks|Gustav|07|7|2008|1|Gustav}}



Caribbean Islands Weather Reports

{{StormLinks|Hanna|08|8|2008|2|Hanna}}

{{StormLinks|Ike|09|9|2008|4|Ike}}

{{StormLinks|99L|99|10|2008|0|99L}}

{{StormLinks|90L|90|11|2008|3|90L}}

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 01 2008 12:43 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Hanna looks to have nuzzled under some of the colder cloud tops overnight, and is arguably quite a bit stronger than the last two advisories. Recon should get in there within a few hours and should the LLC still be under the cold tops at that time, it seems reasonable to expect a jump in the advisory wind speed, and possibly a sizable jump, if it is not raised sooner than that.

Gustav is doing a number, with a raggedy, and at times open eye becoming somewhat visible on IR as well as radar again. Southwest Pass had a two-minute sustained of 79 knots at an elevated measuring station at 24 meters up. Peak gust of 102 knots. Taking the gust of 117MPH into consideration at an elevation of 24 meters, even looking at all of the recon data that has come in, I'm inclined to believe that peak sustained winds somewhere in the cyclone are still about 110-115. While most of the winds within Gustav are likely well-below 90MPH sustained, given the continued very cold cloudtops bursting off and on in the IR channels, it seems reasonable enough to assume that something around 100 knots 1-min averaged could very well be mixing down to the surface somewhere in the cyclone, most possibly either just within the western eyewall, or in particular, up to 70 miles east-southeast of the eye itself, as by far most of the strongest winds have tended to remain on the eastern side of the storm, and still over water or just now coming inland.

Track-wise, it appears that Gustav may be starting to turn a little bit, now possibly leaning a touch towards the left side of northwest. This could prolong the time he spends over water, and also extend farther west the potential for storm surge, and hurricane-force winds along and near the coastline, as well as offshore. As for the surge, at this angle of approach the potential for very significant surge should be reduced some, as water will not funnel as efficiently outside of a few nooks and crannies, but will continue to represent a real threat.

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 01 2008 01:10 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Yes, due to radar there seems to be a more westward component in the movement. I would say, the 100 kt are a bit too high due to the last vortex pass of recon, but I can follow your reasoning.

SMOKE
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 01 2008 02:58 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

I know the NHC was interested in this particular storm as models guidance was bringing it up the eastern seaboard as a major hurricane. We will see.
As good as satellite information is ... the interpretation is so hard, especially for determining the center of the circulation.
This one is showing some very nice features ... good convection.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 01 2008 03:03 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Update on some of the levees:
Loose Barge is somewhere in the Industrial Canal and the Coast Guard is looking for it so it can stop it before it can cause any damage to that levee.
Water topping west side of NOLA's Industrial Canal Levee.
Water overflowing old Lower 9th Ward Canal levee; getting close to overflowing on the new Lower 9th Ward Canal levee.
EM personnel are becoming increasingly concerned with these developments as the surge is expected to continue as Gustav continues to make landfall.
*This information is coming in from the major news outlets and I am typing them as they are talking about it*.

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 03:07 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Hanna's overall structure has been improving during the last 24 hours IMO. Even with her caught between trough/ridge/Gustav she continues to produce deep convection and shows good fanning (outflow) around her constricted periphery. If/When she frees herself of these restraints, I believe she will strengthen pretty rapidly. Anyone from the keys to NC needs to be prepared for this one. With all the attention on Gustav, don't ignore hanna. Yeah i know....its labor day.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 01 2008 03:32 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Wow...they just showed a person in the Industrial Canal trying to secure a propane tank. They are saying that 2 boats and a loose barge bumping into the sewer and water systems in that canal. The water is now beginning to overlap the levee in the Lower 9th Ward.
Also...FNC reporting that huge waves are now overlapping the Hardee Canal levee. They are witnessing this on a local news station who has a camera focused directly on that levee.
News is breaking so fast with these levees that I am literally typing them as I listen to them report this.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 03:40 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

I don't mean to be an alarmist, but...
One thing CNN keeps saying is that the levees have not been breached like they were in Katrina.
Didn't the levee breaches in Katrina occur 24 hours after landfall, though, from rising waters as the storm passed north of the city? Or am I remembering it wrong? I remember the news folks saying during Katrina the same thing they are now saying - that the levees were not being breached - and then the next day, the reality of the situation becoming apparent. So, saying that the levees are holding now does not mean much, does it?

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 01 2008 03:45 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic

Recon coming in from their first pass through Hanna today showing it centered south and east (farther into the deep convection) than even indicated in the adjusted 11AM. Pressure looks to be down below 987mb, with the center near 22.75N 72.72W.

Text of the Vort:

Fix: 22.6167N 72.4333W, Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 03:50 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic

Here is the vortex message from recon sent at 11:45 EDT:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 15:45Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2008
Storm Name: Hanna (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 15:25:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°37'N 72°26'W (22.6167N 72.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (186 km) to the NW (314°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,314m (4,311ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 54° at 59kts (From the NE at ~ 67.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 15:03:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) from the flight level center

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 04:02 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic

Hanna surface winds over 100MPH in SE Quad !!! Although it is marked as suspect data.

Time:
15:53:00Z
Coordinates:
21.6333N 71.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press:
843.6 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,485 meters (~ 4,872 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 197° at 60 knots (From the SSW at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp:
14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Dew Pt:
14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
91 knots* (~ 104.6 mph*) This is looking like bad data as they are not finding anything near this strength as they start their northward leg
SFMR Rain Rate:
48 mm/hr* (~ 1.89 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 04:16 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic

So I guess Hanna will be upgraded to at least a moderate Cat 1 (or maybe a Cat 2) in the intermediate advisory?
It appears that the outflow from Gustav may even be feeding Hanna right now, rather than shearing it as I would have expected.

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 01 2008 04:25 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic

This should be really bad data. But good data shows, that´s at least a threshold cat. 1. So I would expect an upgrade at the next regular update.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 01 2008 04:30 PM
TD #9

I know that TD#9 has formed and we need to keep an eye on it, but right now our main concerns are Gustav and Hanna. I have moved all posts and replies concerning TD #9 to the "Tropics Today" forum. Thank you for your cooperation.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 04:47 PM
Re: TD #9

Smart move re: the forums... Gustav is the story of the day and is what people are coming on line looking for information on..we need to remember that.

As for the levees.. it's a wait and see situation. As said some barge banging into the levee wall the wrong way could cause a problem and constant overtopping can weaken a weak spot and create a problem. Water may rise but there is a difference between some flooding and the historic flooding after Katrina.

Really a wait and see thing as hard as that is...

And, I really want to remind people this is NOT Katrina. It may be a strong cane hitting the same area and it brings up nightmare memories but here is the advisory from Katrina before landfall.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public_a.026.shtml?

There is a big difference between 145 mph winds and 110. Huge difference and the gusts are much lower.

This is a dangerous storm not some weak cat 1 but let's remember it is not Katrina. Please.

That said... pray the levees hold which we pray and hope for in EVERY hurricane situation there. And, there are levees in Morgan City and elsewhere along it's path as well remember that.

shewtinstar
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:07 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic

It looks like, on visible, that Hanna has an eye.

cncguy2000
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:13 PM
local coverage

Here is a link to local tv station Wlox 13 in Gulfport/Biloxi area.

wlox13

just below box is a link to stream local coverage.
(I can't get link to work in message)

Thanks for all the great work you guys, and gals do...

Henry

SMOKE
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:16 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic

Good call on the bad data .... people really need to weigh the 30sec against the VISUAL SFC winds.
The 10sec data is not yet, validity checked and has been known to be really out of whack with what is seen on the surface. That's why the RECCO and VDM are better tools to judge what's going on with the winds.
Hopefully, that will change next season.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:21 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic

recon went back threw on Hanna... appears flight level center is about 9 miles just west of due south of last fix.. looks like pressure around 985-986mb.. looks like new center at 5kft is near 22.4833N 72.45W at 17:12:00Z

MillardDJr
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:31 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

In regard to the delayed levee breach with Katrina, CNN was explaining that this morning.

With Katrina, the eye passed just to the east of NO, which made the winds primarily southerly and a large rain event - all of the rain and the wind caused the water to flow south from Lake Pochatrain (sp?) and force it down into the city from that direction - the rain therefore took longer to fill the lake and flow south.

With Gustav, the eye passed just to the west, creating a surge into NO from the ocean, which is a more immediate effect. The rain itself will not be as much of a worry as the initial surge itself.

This does not mean they are in the clear by any means - the loose barge and any number of things could easily cause problems with the levee system, but the biggest concern is in these earlier hours.

Hope that helps!

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:34 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Hanna latest pass...


A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 17:11:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°30'N 72°27'W (22.5N 72.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 111 miles (178 km) to the NW (310°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,301m (4,268ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 16:26Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the NE (39°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
BANDING EVIDENT IN CENTER BUT STILL NO TRUE INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE ON RADAR

that's about 1mb an hour and a half... Hanna is still taking a beating from the shear... her core is still having time setting up...

Hanna a Hurricane now..

shewtinstar
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:39 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic

TWC just reported that Hanna is officially a hurricane at 75 mph.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:56 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

An excerpt from the Special Advisory on Hanna:

THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST FIX. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

They said that they adjusted the track slightly....does anyone know which way the adjusted it? To the left or to the right?

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 06:08 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Slightly to the left. Though I don't see much difference.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 06:08 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

I think a lot will depend on what Gustav does and how fast he moves. How Hanna moves NW at that angle I don't see but we'll see...

Gustav is supposed to slow but he hasn't slowed much has he?

Think it's in the latest recon or discussion the relocation of Hanna but less concerned with the temporary relocation vs the track...

Boy has Gustav moved fast, before our eyes... 3 storms out there, THREE and we aren't far from the fourth!

Bryan
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 06:08 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

I hope I'm reading this correctly. 1:30 update has her at 22.4N and 72.6W whereas 11am advisory had her at 23.0N and 72.9W. Does that help?

Does anyone know how St. Bernard parish is doing with it's newspaper stuffed levees?

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 06:17 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Recon was having a really hard time putting a fix on the center as Hanna has a broad circulation.

All the reports that I've seen have been saying the levee's are holding fine. There is splashing and over topping but now breaches that I've heard of.

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 06:17 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Navy just declared the INVEST behind Hannah 90L.

The NHC doesn't think that it will form at this time, though the surface pressures in the area are low.

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 06:21 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Would not put much focus on the models right now given that they are a bit off, still awaiting the 18z guidance not sure if this new position will make it into the 18z run more likely the 00z run tonight. My thinking is will see some westward shift possibly to the models tonight considering it continues to meander to the WSW. GFS showing a rather strong cane moving up into Georgia coast in about 96hrs, rather rare.

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 06:35 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Found a live weather station in Pine Cay in Turk and Caicos islands. Which is just SSW of the center. Currently have air temp of 76F, Wind SW at 48 mph, Gusting to 56 mph, Pressure 986mb...

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 01 2008 06:44 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Best track now has TD#9 as Ike, so Ike at 5PM, Hanna a Hurricane, Gustav inland, and likely another depression tomorrow to boot. No rest for the weary....

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 07:05 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Gustav is spinning down now. Max winds near 90mph as of 3PM. Now we have to see how fast it slows down for the inland flooding threat. It hasn't slowed much yet.

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 07:10 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Latest observation in Pine Cay in Turks Islands Temp - 78F, Wind - SW - 48MPH, Gusts 64 mph, Pressure 984mb. Pressure contiues to gradually drop and winds gradually increasing...

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 07:34 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Question for the forum. Is Hanna moving at all, or has she stalled....I'm running to home Depot to get plywood, and clearing up junk around the yard, and want to get this done today. Any thoughts?

Mag
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 07:35 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Hello all, I am in Merritt Island, and thinking that we should get a pretty decent glancing blow from Hanna, My brother is a MET back home on Long Island, and sent me some pretty good links, hopefully all of them have not been posted here already. Lets all stay safe.............. Rob

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ (Tropical Cyclone Recon. Decoder)

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm (Operational Model Guidance from Colorado State University/[CSU])

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropmain.html (E-Wall Tropics/Penn State University)

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html (Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ (Experimental Tropical Cyclone Genesis Fields/FSU-Florida State University)

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential)

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html (Navy Tropical Cyclone Page)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/ (CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Page/University Of Wisconsin)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html (Atlantic and Carribean Satellite Imagery/NOAA)

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp (New Tropical Page from RAMDIS/CSU)

http://www.fema.gov/ (Self Explanatory)

watchinout
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 07:51 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Man things are busy out there. I was looking at charts and graphs on here and putting into play the wsw movement of Hanna and this looks like a North Florida storm to me somewhere between Flagler Beach to Jacksonville. It looks like some of the models are starting to think the same thing. does anyone think the NHC will catch on to this.

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 01 2008 07:55 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Wow! Hanna already up to 88 kt max. flight level winds and 77 kt surface winds. So it´s a strong cat. 1!

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 01 2008 07:58 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

There is very little evidence that Hanna is going to take a more westward route than forecast. Almost all the models are clustering between a north Florida to South Carolina landfall, with a few outliers.

See:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al082008.png
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al082008_late.png

Also, per hanna, latest recon pass found 983mb central pressure (no vortex recon; purely HDOBs) and a max surface wind of between 75 and 77kts. If this slow strengthening continues (about 1-2mb drop per hour), it will hit category 2 (80 kt / ~979mb) sometime late this afternoon or early this evening.

Recon (the previous run) reported a very broad pressure and wind center. As she spins up, this will condense. Will be interesting to watch. Models only call for cat 1 to cat 2 max.

Edit: Vortex Recon finally came in. About what I said, plus: "GREATLY IMPROVED RADAR BANDING IN CENTER"

--RC

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 07:59 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

And lower pressures are being found still.

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 08:04 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

And that can be confirmed with surface observation in pine cay where pressure currently is 983.6mb, winds still sustained near 50-55mph with gusts 60-65mph at this location.

JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 01 2008 08:25 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

I think Gustav is pretty much done for. 5PM advisory will probably take him down to 75-80 mph sustained winds at the most.

Hanna continues to improve in her organization, and I wouldn't be suprised if and when it does make landfall, it would do so as a Category 2, maybe even a Cat 3 storm. Remember, there is the Gulf steam to provide warm water for the storm along the US East coast.

I'm pretty sure based on organization that TD9 will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Ike at 5PM as well, this storm bears watching as well, it looks like it may take a similar path to Hanna getting in torwards the Bahamas.

And the wave off of Africa looks like it could become TD10 as early as 5PM, again based on satellite presenation.

A lot going on right now in the tropics.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 08:30 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

I would have to concur with this. This getting close to the peak time of the season and all this activity only shows it to be true.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 01 2008 08:32 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

FNMOC have TD9 as Ike, and have had for an hour or two. The disturbance off Africa, 99L, is still labelled as 99L both on FNMOC and NRL, so not looking like it will get the upgrade at 5pm. However, with the satellite presentation as it is, it stands a good shot of getting the upgrade as early as 11pm. Recon in Hanna have reported FL winds of 90kts / 104mph. Based on the improving organisation and the data, it looks like Hanna could go Cat 2 in the next 6 hours.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 01 2008 08:40 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Thanks for the great links, Mag. I just wanted to mention that there a whole truckload of other links listed on the main thread also.

I am having a hard time loading images...all the sites must be on overdrive!

threw-er-back
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 09:07 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Holy Hot Tropics!!!..I go shopping with my bride for a few hrs. and the place turns into a carwash!! I have family in Savannah..not lookin too good for them..

cate
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 09:50 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Great...I live in Hobe Sound, FL (near Jupiter) and my daughter and her family live in Georgia about 35 mi south of Savannah. I'll be sleeping with my TV on the rest of the week! ...after I freeze water bottles, etc.

Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 10:04 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

We are gettting some wind and rain from Gustav.
Skies definitely look tropical.

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 01 2008 10:59 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Hanna definitely looks problematic from both intenisty and the predicted track. Florida is now obviously in the cone. I am not sure if the marshes can take much more in eastern central Florida. I do not wish this, but hanna has the potential of making east central Florida look like another one of the inland lakes.

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 11:10 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

The 18z NOGAPS, FWIW, has Hanna make landfall in central Florida, then drives her up just west of JAX into Georgia. This is bacl west from the 12z, but it is the 18z, which some don't hold in as high regard as the 0z and 12z.

edit by moderator redingtonbeachguy -- and GFS has her going further away from Florida and closer to NC. Let's not panic folks... the models don't seem to be in agreement on anything yet so stick with the NHC cone projection.

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 11:19 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

The pressure continues to slip lower in Pine Cay with pressure 979.6mb, winds have turned from southwest couple hours ago to south-southeast at 45mph, with gusts 55-65mph. Hanna appears to be very near this island or slightly to north.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 11:33 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

You know it's become very windy this afternoon in Miami and it's beginning to get hard to ignore Hanna.

Week ahead has Tuesday PM, Wed and Thursday and rainy and WIND...

Something about Hanna going SSW not just SW bugs me. It might only be 3 mph but its a trend in storms this year to the strength of the high that both Gustav and Hanna went south when things got tough with the high.

How much longer will it go SSW and how far west will it get with that movement? It's as if from the moment she became a hurricane our weather got windier.

Wondering what the graphics will show at 11.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Hard for me to buy a sharp left turn. Yes, NHC was good with Gustav but Hanna has been hard to define even by their own description.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 12:02 AM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Hanna has been generating remarkably intense and persistent convection today, in the face of strong northerly shear. The shear may actually be helping to generate and maintain the deep convection, much like wind shear can do in the mid-latitudes. However, the shear also results in an inefficient intensification process. Hanna has been strengthening, but only because of the top-of-the-scale intense convection it has been generating. If that convection flares out while Hanna is still in the strong shear environment, which is certainly possible, it would rapidly weaken. It looks like the environment could become more favorable after about 36-48 hours, but there is wide range of possibilities as to how strong Hanna will be at that point.

Hanna's motion will likely be somewhat erratic for awhile, strongly influenced by internal processes related to the intense convection it is currently generating. There is still pretty good agreement on an eventual northwest track, though.

Ike looks like it will be a player down the road, but lots of things can happen between now and when it would become a threat to the U.S.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 02 2008 12:47 AM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

For people looking for the nearest weather station with pressure readings to the center of Hanna - here is the Pine Cay personal weather station:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

jessiej
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 02 2008 12:54 AM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

Since Hanna is a stronger storm than predicted, wouldn't she be more influenced by Gustav's outflow and head in a more southwestern direction before the ridge builds in? It seems like the UKMET is the only model that has consistantly kept her on a southwest course before the northern turn. The NHC discussion and Max Mayfield point out that because of the reliability of this model, this is the reason the NHC track is to the west of the consensous of the tracks.

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 02:29 AM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

I did not suggest panic Mr. Moderator. Just pointing out the fact that the 18z NOGAPS was further west, and yes I know the GFS is further east. Both of these models have been swapping trends over the last few runs. Until we get some movement from Hanna, we won't know what her intentions are. Just pointing out that in general, the public is quite unaware of Hanna as a threat. My mother in Law in Stuart FL, said today "It's going to North Carolina." That is what J. Q Public believes right now.

Benny
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 02 2008 02:35 AM
Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

OK, what is Hanna doing? Checking the AVN loop, it looks to she "blew up", with an anticyclonic bit of convection blowing off to the southeast,. Perhaps this is the shear from the northwest taking its toll in a big way? Or is this something else?

Here's the loop to which I refer:

Hanna Floater AVN Loop

Starts about 23:15 Z and runs to 0145 Z

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 02 2008 02:55 AM
Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

One thing that might have weakened Hanna is that she has been sitting over one location for a day now, and the ocean heat content is fairly low there, as you can see from this image:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008244ca.jpg

I'm guessing that the warm water has essentially been depleted under her, and she's being hurt by cooler deeper waters impacting her.

Just a guess, but it follows from past storms.

KikiFla
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 02 2008 03:05 AM
Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

I completely agree with Steve. The NHC is so unsure of Hanna's track that it includes Miami all the way up to the Carolinas in the cone...... Yet.... The Weather Channel and most media leave out a big portion of the cone. Does anyone know why they do this? Isn't this irresponsible.... NHC shows one thing.... and the TV shows another.

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 03:31 AM
Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

The media have their one forecasters as well. They don't have to follow the NHC. They also don't have the same accountability as the NHC does.

vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 02 2008 03:40 AM
Please help me make sense of Hanna

I don't get it with Hanna. Some models (NOGAPS/LBAR) now have Hanna making landfall around Daytona Beach as a Cat2 while other have her go much further north. How much of a threat is she to Volusia County right now?

I know that during hurricane season one should be prepared and my family and I have prepared everything possible. But we still need to plan our week and, depending on the storm surge risk, we might have to evacuate (with three kids and two dogs ).

The 11PM probability cone now goes from Miami to Cape Cod! And since intensity predictions are even less accurate I am really getting concerned with the possibility that we might be told with very little warning time "oh, by the way, there is a Cat3+ which will make landfall over your house tomorrow".

So I really would appreciate some informed guesstimates about what Hanna is likely to do or not do.

Thanks,

VS

BillD
(User)
Tue Sep 02 2008 03:50 AM
Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna

You are not going to get any better guesstimates than what the NHC is reporting now. Everyone from Homestead to Savannah needs to stay alert.

Bill

hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 03:58 AM
Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna

As earlier noted everyone should remain alert. There will be plenty of time to evacuate as it isn't a immediate threat to the US. Folks are just gonna have to pay close attention.

BillD
(User)
Tue Sep 02 2008 04:16 AM
Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

[quote The Weather Channel and most media leave out a big portion of the cone.

I don't know what media you refer to, but on the 7:00 PM news NBC6 out of South Florida clearly showed that we were within the 3-day cone, and repeatedly said we are not in the clear.

Who cares what TWC or any other national news source says, it is the local news sources that have the relevant information. It is local sources that people should be listening to.

Bill

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 04:33 AM
Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

Looking at latest IR loop and surface ob in Pine Cay looks like Hanna has moved more towards the southwest as winds continue to back to the ESE now and pressure steadily rising as it slips more the southwest of the island. As it almost appears an eye is forming and moving more to the southwest on the black and white IR loop.

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Tue Sep 02 2008 05:02 AM
Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

I agree it looks like its starting to move alittle now more to the southwest. these models still dont have a good handle on this. As you can see that the ukmet has its own way putting this closer to florida and the other models taking it more on a northwest into the carolinas. With this southwest movement going on right now I say the ukmet has a better idea of what this storm is going to do then the other models that just my thinking i might be wrong but if you look these models and the movement of the storm the ukmet so far is right on !
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_model.html#a_topad
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 02 2008 05:19 AM
Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

It could be just a wobble SSW cause it may be going ENE just a few hours later in a loop! Anyways we will know more again by morning and also from radar out of Cuba. I wish our base had that radar working. Cuban radars are horrible.

berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 02 2008 05:47 AM
Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic

it hasn't gotten lost on the forecasters at NHC as to how well the UKMET has performed and they have to give what it is telling them some weight. The new run continues to show a southwest motion but a fraction of what it was earlier today on its 12Z run; thus the track was once again nudged to the east of FL by about 100 miles. As Ike approaches from the east and Hannah in the next couple of days now that Gustav is inland; they will begin sampling the environments of both systems and the models will begin to respond to that data in addition to what they have now; once that data is added; you will note a much better defined analysis of those systems.

berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 02 2008 06:02 AM
Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna

The problem with all these models is all those different tracks and what you're looking at for your location is at least 48 hours away, and I wouldn't be surprised that you don't see a tropical storm watch or a hurricane watch when Hannah begins to get moving and is within 48 hours of the coast. That said, as concerned as you may be, these people are very, very good at what they do. If NHC felt your area was to be threatened they'd issure something by now. There is alot of activity going on right now, and Ike is 5 days away from taking up residence where Hannah is now and if the long range models bear out, it too will be in the GOM in a week. I counted six systems out there, two weren't tropical, but everybody simply has to trust that the NHC knows what they're doing and will notify us when it's time. We have the technology to see the same information they do, but we don't have the experience to analyze and have the resources made available to us like they do. Problem with so many models is, alot of information. Why do you think a site like this exist in the first place? Think of what life was like before all of this and didn't have the information to look at yourself!

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 02 2008 07:33 AM
Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna

Hanna has been pushed to the south quite a bit. It´s to the east of Great Iniagua (the island nearby) and so it´s quite much south of the NHC forecast track. Convection increases after a minimum again. The minimum could had been caused because of the slow movement and upwellung of cold water. If I look at the sat pics, I would say, there is still some shear, but also a poleward outflow channel forming!? I think, this storm could give us some more surprises in the future.
Near the Cap Verde islands TD 10 has formed. That isn´t a surprise and it could intensify to TS Josephine today. It looks very healthy. So we could have four named storms in the evening: the dying Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Josephine. May be the next days we see three hurricanes at the same time with Hanna, Ike and Josephine. So it´s really quite busy! By the way, what´s the record for TS/ hurricanes at the same time?

edit: I see, the shear takes it´s toll according to the last AMSRE pass. The center is to the north and not the east of the island, with the mass of convection well to the southeast of the center.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 02 2008 11:47 AM
Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna

Hanna is just a very hard storm to forecast and as soon as we see really where and how fast Gustav moves inland and his effect on Hanna wanes we can't really see what will happen no matter what the models try to indicate. It's still a crap shoot in ways and you go with the best models that brought you so far.

Ike however is a real problem as by the time he gets past shear he is stuck in a groove West towards Florida and Cuba under a very strong high.

So... I think until things clear up over the next 24 hours or 36 too much reliance on models with Hanna should be avoided.

Except that the whole of the Eastern Coastline is in her 5 day...

They must be living on Tagamet at the NHC this week..

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 02 2008 11:49 AM
Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna

You can se it also on visible: The center of Hanna is totally exposed. The convection fires only in the SE quadrant.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 02 2008 12:10 PM
Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna

Hanna is moving somewhat slow and erratic just as forecast a few days ago, and its overall trend has been to get better organized and strengthen, although it is the nature of these features to sometimes strengthen and accelerate quite rapidly. It will sure keep everyone on the edge of their chairs the next few days as it lurks in the Bahamas and then starts moving toward the Florida coast on Wed. Yet, nothing consistent in the model guidance suggests that Hanna will strike FL. Instead, reliable long range models like the GFS (and others) have been consistent in suggesting that Hanna will continue tracking very close to NHC's current forecast. These are the kind of storms that make everyone along the FL east coast very nervous, but it's nothing new for those who have been around awhile.

JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 02 2008 07:34 PM
Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna

I wouldn't be suprised if Hanna made landfall on Haiti the way she has been acting, and I don't anticipate strengthening anytime soon for even if she does start moving NW again she'll be tracking back over the waters that she's been over, so she'll be trying to draw off of upwelled cooler waters. I also wonder if Ike is traveling over this area how it may affect him when he gets to Hanna's previous area. Heck, we may even have a collision between these two storms if Hanna's stays parked there long enough.

Speaking of Ike, he's looking pretty good, but he needs more convection torwards the center than what he has to really get going.

Josephine is looking good, and might prolly start strengthening soon methinks.

And if that wave at 15N 10W comes off the African coastline looking like it is now, we'll probably have an instant classification of Tropical Storm Kyle.


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