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As October approaches the end, activity in the tropics has dropped off quite a bit, and will likely remain that way for the remainder of the season. However we'll still watch for any changes and bring them up if something happens. During this part of the year you only really look in the Western Caribbean for Development, and sometimes (but not usually) the Gulf. The peak of the season has come and gone, Ike was the hurricane to remember this year. Fay, the Tropical Storm many of us in Florida will remember. More to come later. |
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Latest Extended Forecast Discussion from WBC: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 208 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008 VALID 12Z MON NOV 03 2008 - 12Z FRI NOV 07 2008 ...OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...A CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES REMAINING BLOCKED BY A POSITIVE ANOMALY/RIDGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. CMC CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LATEST MORNING 00Z ENS MEANS AND 06Z GFS CONT TO FOLLOW PRIOR GUIDANCE RUNS. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH ITS WRN ATLC COASTAL CYCLOGENSIS AND TRACK CLOSEST TO THE SRN SEABOARD AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DEEP STORM LATE NEXT WEEK. IT HAS HOWEVER ACCELERATED AN EPAC SYSTEM INTO B.C. AHEAD OF PRIOR GUIDANCE AND ENS MEANS AT DAY 7 FRI. ...OFFSHORE GALE LOOKING MORE LIKELY OFF THE SRN SEABOARD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES NORTH AND THEN NEWD. PREFER KEEPING RAIN ACROSS NERN FL AND THE IMMEDIATE SERN COAST FROM GA TO SERN VA..POSSIBLY NEWD ALONG THE DELMARVA TUES-WED. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/PMDEPD |