MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 02:39 AM |
Category 2 Hurricane Alex Makes Landfall along Northeast Mexican Coastline
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10PM EDT 30 June 2010
ALex has made landfall in Mexico with 105MPH winds, and a a minimum central pressure of 947mb. This is the strongest June Hurricane since Hurricane Alma in 1966.
SInce the core of Alex went ashore in a very sparsely populated area, most of the affects from the system will be the incredible amounts of rainfall.
7PM EDT 30 June 2010
Hurricane Alex is now a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of 100mph, it has a pressure of 950mb, and is moving toward the west. It will make landfall between 9PM-Midnight CDT.
6PM EDT 30 June 2010
Alex is a few hours away from Landfall just south of the border in Mexico. Flooding, Surge, and power outages are starting to show up in South Texas. The minimum pressure of the Hurricane has reached 951mb, which is extraordinarily low for a Category 1 Hurricane, in fact it could be a mid range category 2 now.
Alex is an extremely large hurricane, with a very large windfield.
{{StormLinks|Alex|01|1|2010|1|Alex}}
Brownsville Texas Area Forecast Discussion
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Christi, TX Radar}}
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite
Brownsville Storm Rainfall Totals loop
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
Microwave imagery of Alex (MIMIC)
Cameron County Texas, Scanner Audio Feed (Police/Fire/EMT) -- Brownsville Area
Cameron County, TX Emergency Operations Center
Southeast Texas Power Outage Map
Weather Observations:
Corpus Christi, Texas
Kingsville NAS, Texas
Harlingen, Texas
Brownsville, Texas
Matamoros, Mexico
Ciudad Victoria, Mexico
Tampico, Mexico
Local Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio
Chaser Twitter feeds:
Weatherzine/Jeff Gammons
Extreme Storms/Jim Edds
Webcams:
South Padre Island Isla Grand Resort Cam Alex (2010) Recording
South Padre Island Beach Cam Alex (2010) Recording
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams
Live video from Mexico near projected landfall point.
South Padre Island Live Video Stream
11AM 30 June 2010 Update
Alex is still slowly strengthening based on Recon reports. According to the NHC discussion, It appears the northwesterly jog will end soon and it will head west, and perhaps a bit south of west later today.
South Padre Island Causeway is now being prepped to be closed in high winds.
Those in the Warning area need to use local officials and local media for more detailed information, there are some media links below.
7AM 30 June 2010 Update
Alex is slowly strengthening, in fact, recent recon reports indicate that pressure has fallen to 959, which means Alex may become a Category 2 hurricane today.
Forecasted track is still into Mexico, with most of the energy on the right (or northern side) of the center, those in Brownsville and the Rio Grande Valley will be seeing deteriorating conditions today into tonight.
Original Update
Alex has become the first June Atlantic hurricane since Allison in 1995 (Which was the first hurricane ever tracked on this website). The storm is headed due west toward Mexico.
Alex is a large storm and effects from it will be felt fairly far north, those in the Hurricane Warning area should not let their guard down. Forward motion of the storm appears to have slowed somewhat, but the official forecast takes Alex in land tomorrow night around 8-10PM.
It may have a chance to strengthen a bit more before landfall.
No changes with watches/warnings.
Hurricane Warnings still reach into South Texas around Baffin Bay, and effects from the storm will certainly be felt there, mostly rain and some storm surge. The landfall point in Mexico is where most of the impact will be felt. For those asking about the impact on the oil spill, the waves kicked up will likely move the oil around a bit and possibly cause oil to wash up on beaches further east where it hasn't yet, but it is difficult to tell.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 02:40 AM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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Added combination radar of Brownsville + Mexican Radars:
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 05:01 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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It can not be emphasized enough that Alex is both an unusually large and especially wet tropical cyclone, particularly for the ATL this early in a season. Given the holiday week, many vacationers to Mexico or Texas - and perhaps also even Louisiana and other states should Alex continue to push numerous outer rainbands ("rainbands," to put it mildly!) - may not be accustomed to this type of an event.
Alex may yet inch up the coast prior to landfall, coming ashore and moving inland closer to more densely populated regions of Mexico and/or Texas. Also, there is some reasonable thinking now that Alex could move inland, only to then do any number of possible loops, to then hook back across the southern gulf states. For now, these scenarios, while considered possible, are outliers.
But even if Alex were to merely come ashore within 200 miles or so to the south of the Tx/Mx border, the circulation envelope and associated mass of rainbands - some clearly capable of dropping many inches or rain per hour for hours on end - make the potential for flooding very high this week.
As the saying goes, "Turn Around Don't Drown"
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 05:35 AM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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The threat with Alex will be rain and flooding. Monterrey, MX is a major city south of TX and Alex will present a very real flooding threat to Monterrey and the surrounding mountainside. Alex's track is pretty much straightforward and while Brownsville to Corpus Christi will be affected given it is on the north and east side of Alex...the wet side...flooding is likely there as well. I hope this helps..take care...Sincerely, Bill
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 08:55 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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waiting on recon to arrive in center... there not to far to the NE.. flight level winds now at 5kft around 75mph... within 100 miles from center... taken a guess... pressure down to 967mb? winds 85mph.... will see in a bit.. recon 75 miles out...
also... is that an eye trying to pop out?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 08:57 AM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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recon just did a loop in the center... width only about 10 miles... coming in from the NE winds were as high as 92mph i think... looks like pressure may have fallen below 960mb too! waiting on dropsonde data... appears a very small eye...
update
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 08:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 8:42:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°19'N 95°00'W (23.3167N 95.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 239 miles (384 km) to the SE (139°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,075m (3,527ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 82kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 8:33:40Z
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 11:04 AM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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The center of Alex is now visible on Long Range Radar From Brownsville.
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
Pressure is now down to 959 mb from Recon, which is usually incredibly low for a Cat 1 hurricane, it may get upgraded at 8.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 12:37 PM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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Latest EYE Dropsonde has 958mb. Pressure continues to slowly drop.
| mwillis |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 01:13 PM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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Storm ALEX: Observed By Air Force #306
Storm #01 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 89KT (102.4mph 164.8km/h) In NE Quadrant At 12:35:50Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 80.1KT (92.1mph 148.4km/h) *
Misc Remarks: MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 89 KT NE QUAD 12:35:50Z MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 89 KT NE QUAD 12:35:50Z ;
Date/Time of Recon Report: Wednesday, June 30, 2010 8:12:00 AM (Wed, 30 Jun 2010 12:12:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 23° 32' N 095° 12' W (23.5°N 95.2°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1052m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 56KT (64.4MPH 103.7km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2miles) From Center At Bearing 217°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 62KT (71.3mph 114.8km/h) From 300°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 217°
Minimum pressure: 958mb (28.29in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NW
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 9 nm (10.4 mi 16.7km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 01:29 PM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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Alex is a massive storm.
If you look on the NWAtlantic water vapor loop you see Alex is as big as the big ULL East of Florida. Alex and the ULL off florida along with another ULL in the mid Atlantic are all lined up "horizontally" in that view like 3 giant buzz saws.
Alex is impressive as it's as big or bigger than the big ULL in size.
Alex's pressure is very low for its wind speed. Let's hope the winds do not catch up to the pressure falls of last night and this morning.
Alex needs to get into Mexico fast. The quicker it does the less time the winds will have to pick up and hopefully the rains can subside faster. I'm afraid the flooding will be tremendous and we all know that often times flooding is the big killer especially in the higher elevations of Mexico.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 01:48 PM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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Added two webcam recordings
Note: All these cams seem to be off now.
South Padre Island Surf Cam Alex (2010)
South Padre Island Beach Cam Alex (2010)
radars are still recording at:
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
| mwillis |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 02:04 PM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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I read this and thought is was humerous.... The seas are Confused......
http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=gmz470&syn=gmz400
Added 10:20am
Thanks Ed and all the regulars, this site is great not only for knowledge, but for little fun facts and so forth like this.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 02:18 PM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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Actually it is a common usage term that is used to describe a particular character of the sea:
"Character of the sea swell
0. None
Low 1. Short or average
2. Long
Moderate 3. Short
4. Average
5. Long
Heavy 6. Short
7. Average
8. Long
9. Confused
Direction from which swell is coming should be recorded.
Confused swell should be recorded as "confused northeast, if coming from the direction of northeast."
ED
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 02:45 PM |
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Re: Alex Becomes Hurricane in Bay of Campeche
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Alex is spinning up again.
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z
Maximum Wind Outbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 02:51 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Intensity:
If it wasn't for the fact that Alex is a tremendously large hurricane, its radius of winds would be much more compact, as would the speeds, and thus their intensity. But in Alex, as like Ike for most of its duration in the GOM, the winds are spread way out - with tropical storm force winds extending out to roughly 200 miles from the center.
The minimum pressure at last pass in Alex would often support a high-end Cat 2/low-end Cat 3 cyclone ,and it is still possible that Alex wraps up a bit tighter prior to landfall. A landfall as a solid Cat 2 is possible, or potentially even Cat 3 is slightly possible, mostly depending on how much more time Alex has over water.
Track:
As of 13:45 UTC, Alex has been showing some signs of edging to the right again, rather than staying basically due west as had been the case since last night. Should this become a trend and then continue for a little while longer, Alex will be a little off track, but not necessarily out of the cone. However, this needs to be watched, as even a small but lasting shift to the right could imply significantly more wind impacts for many densely populated sections of south Texas.
It is important to remember that Alex is now - and generally has been - a much deeper tropical cyclone than most models runs have been accounting for. Deeper, better-formed tropical cyclones are subject to a different set of steering currents than weaker TCs, and for the better part of the past few days, these steering currents have supported a potential track that would be farther up the coastline for a deeper system, which Alex actually is.
Also, historically, TCs coming ashore along the coastline from roughly northern Mexico to the upper Texas coast are susceptible to regional influences that sometimes tend to tug and pull them northward the closer they are to actually coming ashore.
Impacts:
Flooding. The greatest impacts from Alex are all going to be about the rain and potential for serious flash flooding - an extraordinarily large and very wet hurricane - the hurricane force winds are restricted to a relatively small region around the very center.
Waterspouts and tornadoes are probable within the dirty part of the hurricane (right hand side, primarily in the right front quadrant).
Wind damage - There will be some to be sure. Tropical storm force winds, primarily in gusts, extend out to 200 miles from the center. Strong tropical storm force winds, even just in gusts, can take down trees that are rooted in saturated ground. South and east Texas have already had several days of widespread rain, some of it very substantial.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 02:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Good point. If you click on the forecast points, Alex is already a bit to the east. If that track holds, looks like a landfall pretty close to Brownsville. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
| mwillis |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 03:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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This should be interesting to see how Ales reacts to 31 degree SST's. When you look at the loop frame with the SST box checked you can see that he is about to run into a large patch of warm water. Does anyone notice a more Northern than western movement?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html
Well I went back to look again 6 min after I posted this and the SST data changed on the loop. So no more 31 SST's I guess???
11:36 AM
I think I see the eye in water imagery. Its 25 long, 95.6 lat.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 03:27 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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I ran a Surge model on Advisory number 4 and at that time the center was forecast to go ashore just south of Brownsville.
Landfall was forecast at that time to be on the Point just south of Brownsville. This morning's surge model was much further south of the Point.
Advisory number 20 surge model is still showing a left turn before landfall south of the inlet, south of Brownsville. Trying to find the name of the area.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 04:08 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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It seems Alex is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Recon confirmed the 8 mile wide eye had collapsed and I expect we will see a much larger eye form later today which will in turn spread out the wind field and allow further deepening
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 04:18 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Brownsville Info Links
Cameron County Texas, Scanner Audio Feed (Police/Fire/EMT) -- Brownsville Area
Cameron County, TX Emergency Operations Center
Southeast Texas Power Outage Map
cal Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 04:25 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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It's really important that people understand what is going on, what is really happening with Alex. A stronger storm, more northward component. A classic situation
The steering layer maps show it pretty well.
Steering Layers for 960-950 mlb. systems
Alex continues a NW motion, click the attachment if you want to see my forecast track based on the motion and pattern of Alex. My prayers go out to those in the path of Hurricane Alex.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 04:32 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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More streams:
Live video from Mexico near projected landfall point.
South Padre Island Live Video Stream
South Padre Island Isla Grand Resort Cam Alex (2010) Recording
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 04:46 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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South Padre Island is going to get some pretty good storm Surge out of Alex, if you know of anyone staying there, recommend to them getting out.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 04:48 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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"The reason why Alex is moving north is because the pressure is similar to a Category 3 Hurricane, which makes a stronger storm, more northward component."
No, not true at all. Thats like saying that Hurricane Iris in 2001, a hurricane that strengthened to Cat IV and hit Belize while moving west southwest, should have been moving north. The steering current chart from UW CIMSS actually indicates the likelyhood of a northwest to west northwest movement.
Perhaps you meant to say that stronger storms often develop a more northward component to their motion.
ED
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 04:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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That is exactly what I meant to say, sorry for the misunderstanding. Alex continues a NW movement, with a few wobbles to the WNW according to the radar. However, I've been flipping through RAMSDIS (which by the way is a great satellite site), clearly continues the NW movement.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 05:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Alex continues to move between NW and NNW early this afternoon. It was something that was mentioned in the 11 am ET discussion. Until this morning for the past few days there has been a piece of the long wave trough that had become cutoff from the parent upper low over the Hudson Bay of Canada. The pattern over the USA this week is a bit unusual given how far south the trough has made its presence known. A cold front extends well into the deep South today which is stationary over the Mid-South. Upper support in the way of that trough extends currently in two pieces, one into Arkansas and the other piece along the MS, AL, GA, TN, NC state lines and then extending northeastward into the upper low over the Hudson Bay.
It is the tail end currently over AR, TN, MS which there is a break between the Mid-Continental Ridge centered over NB, IA, KS, MO and the Bermuda Ridge with its axis extending through southern GA, AL, MS.
What NHS is referring to is this area of troughing to liftout or fill resulting in high pressure aloft extending from the Central US to the Atlantic Ocean effectively cutting off Alex from extending any farther north.
At this time and juncture Alex is running out of time and water. The concern is a couple of days from now and what will come of the remains of Alex and I see no evidence Alex will enter the USA and "drown" LA. Personally, I think Alex will dissipate over North Central MX.
I do believe flooding cocerns are a real possibility for Monterrey, MX which is a major city near TX in two days.
| tropicswatch |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 05:33 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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The latest on evacuations in Mexico I could find:
The Mayor of San Fernando, Tamaulipas - Alejandro Galindo Franklin - says six shelters are now being provided to care for about 2,000 people who were evacuated from communities along the Gulf of Mexico.
Yesterday, Mayor Erick Silva of Matamoros ordered the evacuation of about 5,000 people living in Playa Bagdad and in several rural communities.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 05:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Latest Center Fix has Alex about 100 miles due east of the shoreline in Mexico.
That would make landfall of the Center after Dark.
Head to higher ground now if you think you may not be high enough.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 06:23 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Eye of Alex now on Brownsville weather radar...Alex is now moving W to WNW. Brownsville is currently experiencing torrential rainfall as a spiral band trains from east to west. Flooding imminent.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 07:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Alex's pressure certainly hasn't translated into a stronger system; I agree. However Alex has had to overcome a complicated weather pattern for several days and is simply out of time and water to really wind itself up. Today's poleward wobble today is due to an upper trough that a few days ago was the tail end of the well advertised eastern US long wave which today currently extends to MS and becomes inverted through LA.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 07:21 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Recon reports are suggesting something more akin to an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 07:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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It appears that Alex has made the forecasted sharp left turn, it'll likely head due west (maybe a bit south) of the current position.
| mwillis |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 07:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Appears in this imagery that the eye is a little morth than the hurricane plot, any thoughts?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 08:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Yep Alex is a touch north of his predicted location. Each lat line is 69 miles, so it looks like he is only 20 miles off track. Considering at one point the eye was 10 miles wide I'd say he is still within the standard "wobble" for a hurricane. The forecast is never perfect and it appears the turn to the west was delayed slightly. The last NHC update indicated Alex was moving a touch faster then predicted so that might explain how he got further north before making the turn to the west.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 08:51 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Yes I believe it was ERC as well. Regardless recon is now reporting a closed wall 12nm and pressure down to 959mb
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 09:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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A couple of observations:
As mentioned in the 4PM discussion, the high is building in and Alex is now clearly starting to respond, with an apparent more decisive turn back to the west, and even a wobble to the wsw. A landfall in northeastern Mexico is likely tonight, but only a stair-step or two back to the nw would bring hurricane-force winds into deep south Texas.
Tornadoes have been numerous, and moving at upwards of 50 or so mph, often too fast to spot before they are brushing right on through. Tornado warnings should be heeded with immediate urgency, as there is little or no visual lead time with tornadoes tracking this fast, often also obscured by rain.
Heavy rain continues to pound the eastern half of Texas, with frequent flooding underway, with rainfall rates of up to several inches per hour, sometimes ongoing for multiple hours over the same general locations.
Tropical storm force winds extend out very far. For example, several locations in and around San Antonio, far removed from the center of circulation, are now picking up sustained winds out of the E to NE in excess of 30mph, gusting over 40.
The core of Alex is improving dramatically heading into landfall, and it looks entirely likely that Alex will reach Cat 2 prior to landfall. Judging by the Dvorak technique, the hurricane has the appearance of an even stronger cyclone, already (with Dvorak intensity estimates already easily into the Cat 3 range). If Alex were to have (or for some reason we do not yet foresee, -does get-) more time over water, these estimates would almost certainly verify at the surface.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 09:37 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Pressure dropped 4mb in an hour?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 21:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°21'N 96°56'W (24.35N 96.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (184 km) to the SSE (162°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,042m (3,419ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (350°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 94kts (From the E at ~ 108.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:51:20Z
| mwillis |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 09:50 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Not sure how it matters but at 5pm Brownsville/ S. Padros Island had a pressure reading of 998mb
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KBRO.html
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 09:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Quote:
Pressure dropped 4mb in an hour?
Satellite images show a well defined, small eye and a serious CDO is making up the core, thankfully Alex is close to shore or we would have Cat 2 storm pushing Cat 3 by now.
Brownsville weather: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airp...ame=NA&MR=1
Notice the pressure drop from 1PM on. Currently winds are 30 mph, with gusts pushing 50.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 10:49 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Recon has now found a pressure of 951...for a Cat1 hurricane. That kind of pressure could be a strong cat3 or even a 4 normally. The wind field on Alex is, however, HUGE.
| mwillis |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 11:24 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Is it just me or did the center slow or stop in the last 2-3 frames?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 30 2010 11:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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It slowed down or wobbled a bit, Short Range Loop, but it's still heading generally west. The long term loop shows it too, it's slowed a little recently, but not all that much.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 12:20 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
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Likely last recon run for Alex before landfall found 948mb, second lowest to only to Audrey for June hurricanes.
Actually looks like they are going to go through the storm one more time.
| SeaMule |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 01:02 AM |
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strength
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I have seen hurricanes since 1979.....watching them like a hawk since I got creamed by Frederic in Mobile, al.
this is a strong cat 3...and given time...woulda easily become a cat 4...
remember Andrew? actually exploded and strengthened at landfall...this one will too...
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 01:15 AM |
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Re: strength
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Quote:
I have seen hurricanes since 1979.....watching them like a hawk since I got creamed by Frederic in Mobile, al.
this is a strong cat 3...and given time...woulda easily become a cat 4...
remember Andrew? actually exploded and strengthened at landfall...this one will too...
While Alex has the pressures to support the notion that it is a "strong cat 3," it does not have the size - and has not had the time, given its size. Like Ike, Alex is an exceptionally large hurricane ~ as such, it takes a good while longer for the winds to catch up with pressure falls... even falls of this magnitude to these currently very low levels.
Alex may yet make a final landfall as a Cat 3, but it is not yet a Cat 3, and will almost certainly not be able to ramp up its winds as rapidly as Andrew did.
In essence, for Alex, size matters, yet for Andrew, size mattered not.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 01:28 AM |
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Re: strength
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looks like for the record... alex will have made landfall with 947mb and winds of 100mph?
recon heading out... but here's the last pass.. about 7 miles to the coast from the center of the eye!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 01:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 31
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 0:54:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°15'N 97°29'W (24.25N 97.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 116 miles (187 km) to the S (180°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 973m (3,192ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the E (93°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 202° at 82kts (From the SSW at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,507m (4,944ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) in the north quadrant at 23:37:50Z
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 01:36 AM |
Administrative Note
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Lets keep things in perspective and eliminate the hype. Alex is making landfall at this time and I see no sign of any explosive intensification. So far the only report of tropical storm force wind is from South Padre Island at 40G52mph, but I'm sure that strong Cat I or weak Cat II winds are occuring near the landfall point in Mexico.
When anyone constantly posts misinformation they lose credibility - please stick to realistic expectations.
ED
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 02:00 AM |
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Re: Administrative Note
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Alex has made landfall in the small village of La Yuega, Mexico. It appears to be actually heading southwest now.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9 PM CDT...0200 UTC
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA...
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
--
The Flooding rains will probably be the biggest deal, the area of landfall is not very populated.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 02:05 AM |
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Re: Administrative Note
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Pressure is already going UP at Brownsville. 5PM winds peaked at 38.0 mph with gusts at 48.3 mph. I'm sure we'll see some higher numbers but I doubt any place in Texas got hurricane force sustained winds. Mexico might be another story but I didn't check any weather sites down there.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 05:57 AM |
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Re: strength
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There is an excellent possibility you would have been right had it remain over water another 24 hours. In this case Alex ran out water and time. Despite being over land it continues to have a good eye on satellite; however there are some tall mountains in Alex's path and will likely be shredded apart in less than 48 hours. There is some discussion about Alex's moisture in time being pulled into the Central US but with a stout ridge in place over that area; doubtful unless it progresses east which some model do hint at with a deepening offshore long wave trough which continues in the Eastern GOM. There is some support for a low developing in the Eastern Gulf in a couple of days as a surface front is expected to reach the GOM in the next 24 hours. I live in Alabama and the front has past my location - Opelika and Montgomery however I'll comment more on that tomorrow and not from this thread.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 11:15 AM |
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Re: strength
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The models in general did poorly on Alex until late on the 25th, when a few started finally pointing the general direction where it went, even though plenty were split at the time. For a while the models were so consistently wrong to the north, I was really starting to think it may not ever get in the Bay of Campeche, but enough of a weakness in the ridge made it go northward a bit, enough to get quite a few people concerned it may head even further north.
Water vapor imagery kinda hampered that, and suggested a more westerly turn, which eventually did happen. The Hurricane center nailed the hurricane warning area pretty good, considering how large the storm was. It'll stay fairly strong until the center of the system runs against the mountains in Mexico, at which point it'll probably dissipate quickly.
The ongoing rainfall problem will probably be the largest story from Alex.
After Alex It'll probably be quiet for a bit (not long enough however), the most likely areas for July development are the West Caribbean, and Gulf, as well as west Atlantic start creeping in, toward later July you can start to consider African waves a bit more. The place to watch into next week is the Gulf, however.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 11:42 AM |
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Alex... Last page.
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Just a few excerpts and comments on the last page of Alex. Due to work scheduling I wasn't present for the last few hours up to landfall.
"Is it just me or did the center slow or stop in the last 2-3 frames?" Texas Two Step
"Likely last recon run for Alex before landfall found 948mb, second lowest to only to Audrey for June hurricanes." Everything is bigger in Texas
Just a we bit of humor to relax the atmosphere. No Pun intended.
Alex minimum central pressure of 947 mb could have supported a maximum wind speed of 128 mph. So all things considered we seemed to have lucked out.
edit:The Weather Channel is reporting that Hurricane Alex is the strongest June Hurricane on record since Hurricane Audrey in 1947.
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 01:36 PM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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Alex was a very interesting system to track beginning in the Eastrn Carribean until it reached the Mexican coastline.
I think it proved how much climatology affects systems in ways many of us including myself do not understand. Would the same system in August in the Eastern Carribean produced a Cat IV or V storm down the road? I'd have to guess yes.
947mb at landfall is a very low pressure for June, but the enormous size and the flooding rains may offset the lack of windspeed and in fact prove more deadly since the area of Mexico where the eye passed isn't very densely populated.
Katrina hit as a Cat III storm I believe yet the surge was of epic proportions. Alex hit with a falling barometer at 947mb; yet was "only" a Cat II storm.
these two hurricanes prove that despite our attempts to label these monsters, each storm is almost like an individual with varying characteristics. Presure doesn't always equal wind speed, and wind speed at landfall doesn't always equal storm surge, and people need to recognize that when the NHC posts a warning there is imminent danger.
I know people in Biloxi who felt they were safe pre Katrina just because they survived Camille a much stronger landfalling hurricane that hit land closer to their home; yet in the end Katrina proved far more powerful. They said in a sense Camille killed even though it was years later.
Looking ahead, does an A Cat two hurricane in June make a severe hurricane season more likely? I bet Mr Ed could tell us that fairly quickly. The ingredients are there; warm waters, weakening trade winds, etc.; but as Alex just proved hurricanes are hard to predict and hard to label. We will have to wait and see what develops.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 02:37 PM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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Looks like Alex will give reseachers some new ground to cover. From Dr. Masters at WU:
Alex had several rather remarkable features I've never seen in a hurricane. Firstly, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Usually, we don't see the inner eyewall collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle occur until a hurricane reaches Category 3 strength. I've seen it happen on occasion to a Category 2 storm, but never a Category 1. Secondly, after Alex's inner 9-mile diameter eyewall collapsed at 10am EDT yesterday morning, an outer spiral band began to become the new eyewall. Winds in this outer spiral band/new eywall increased as the day progressed, as typically happens in an eyewall replacement cycle. However, part way through that process, Alex suddenly reversed course, and was able to build a small inner eyewall with a 12-mile diameter that was completed by landfall. I've never seen a hurricane change its mind in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle and build an inner eyewall so fast. Finally, Alex had an unusually weak winds, considering how low the pressure was. The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 04:07 PM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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Quote:
The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.
This just goes to show that you have to look at ALL the data. Just looking at the pressure and saying "this is a Cat 2 storm" is misleading.
Personally ever since Andrew it seems the NHC adds about 20% to the wind speed & wind field in an effort to play things on the safe side with extra warnings. In fact the winds are nearly always listed as "estimated" to reflect this. Then after all the data is collected you'll notice the storm was weaker then predicted due to this safety factor (plus the margin of error). For example southern TX was under a hurricane warning yet they never saw winds even close to 75 mph.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 04:44 PM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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Interesting comments. I think the winds were "down" relative to the central pressure due solely to the immense size of the circulation, which caused the wind field to spread out so far from the center. The pressure gradients in the interior of the storm were therefore not as extreme, as say they were in Andrew and Charlie, both small storms and the central pressure significantly lower than pressures on the periphery of the system about 100 miles or less away.
The fringes of this storm extended hundreds of miles.
| Troy C |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 04:57 PM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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Daniel. I think Audrey was 1957 rather than '47. Someone else had asked wether a strong June storm would translate to an active season. 1957 wasnt that active of a season; just 8 storms, three of which were hurricanes. A Cat 1 and a pair of Cat 4's.
Take that early info with a grain of salt when comparing against todays almost up to th eminute information on storms, rather than ships reports et al.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 05:59 PM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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Audrey was indeed in 1957 ( the year that I graduated from High School - does that make you feel young?
) - but if the Weather Channel did indeed report that, they were wrong. Alex was the strongest June Hurricane since Hurricane Alma (110 knots - Cat III) in 1966. I'll put up a Met Blog that more fully answers the question.Cheers,
ED
| tropicswatch |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 06:56 PM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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As expected Alex did a serious number on the electrical grid in Tamaulipas. Towns without power include: Abasolo, Soto la Marina, San Fernando, Burgos, Cruillas, Güémez, Casas, Llera and Victoria. The Federal Electricity Commission says they should have power restored by 7pm.
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 01 2010 07:55 PM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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Ed, I was 5 years old when Audrey knocked a tree down in our backyard onto our house.
I was 55 years old when Gustav did the same thing.
I was home both times.
In 2057, I'm evacuating.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 12:05 AM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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I heard and read how many forecasters said this storm acted much more like a wetpac typhoon than a hurricane. I would love to hear someone elaborate on that, and what that difference would be, and did it cause some of the idiosyncrasies associated with Alex?
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 12:27 AM |
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Re: Alex... Last page.
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At 02/00Z, Alex was still a minimal Tropical Storm with sustained winds of 40mph - moving west northwest at 13mph. Approximate location was 23.4N 102.0W. Sure is a tenacious storm.
ED