MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 10:59 AM |
Western Atlantic Basin Becoming More Active
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11PM EDT Independence Day Update
Invest 95L located at 27.7N 90.3W at 05/00Z. As quickly as the system seemed to spin up this afternoon, it has spun down this evening. NHC still says a 20% chance for tropical cyclone development in the next couple of days, but those chances are probably on the decline. System is drifting west at 5mph with very limited convection.
Invest 96L has multiple centers between Grand Caymen Island and northeast Honduras at 05/00Z and has a 50/50 chance for additional development in the next couple of days. The system has slowed down and seems to be moving generally to the northwest at 10mph into a zone of light but increasing north windshear. Although buoys/ships have reported winds close to TS strength, the wave still appears to be an open system.
A third active wave east of the Islands near 14.5N 59.5W at 05/00Z has developed additional convection and could become an area of interest in a few days. Thunderstorms observed at Barbados earlier today - the Windward Islands can expect showers and gusty easterly winds on Monday.
An area of earlier convective development in the Bahamas has quieted down this evening. The area is quasi-stationary and its future development chances are low.
ED
5:30PM EDT 4 July 2010 Update
95L in the Gulf suddenly has spun up quite a bit this afternoon, and has a chance to become a depression/storm. If so it would be a very small system, similar to Marco in 2008.
Many are "out of pocket" today, so we'll update as soon as possible.
8:25AM EDT 4 July 2010 Update
The low in the Gulf looks like it will be history today, as it was never expected to develop.
However the wave in the western Caribbean (96L) has a much better overall chance to develop, and could in the next few days. If it were to form it would most likely take the westerly track and wind up in Mexico. The situation is slightly different than with Alex, so it'll require monitoring by those in the Gulf through the week.
8:35PM EDT 3 July 2010 Update
Nothing much as changed during the day regarding the two areas. The area in the western Caribbean is not being tracked as an invest at this time. The area in the Gulf is being tracked as an invest (95L) because of proximity to US land, but is still not expected to develop.
9AM Update
The low in the Gulf is on its way to dissipating, and likely will not develop. IT has less than !0% chance to, and dropping.
This leaves a good tropical free weekend for those in the Atlantic Basin, last next week it may change, but for now ifor those in the US, enjoy the independence and holiday.
The areas to watch for later in the week are a wave in the Central Atlantic, and a disturbance in the Western Caribbean.
Original Update
Hurricane Alex was a large hurricane, and caused a great deal of flooding rains, but for South Texas it was far south enough to only have minimal surge. In Mexico, things were much worse, but it also made landfall in a mostly unpopulated area.
What comes after Alex? It's likely to be a quiet weekend for development, but there are things to watch, especially after that, and a lot of rain in the Northeastern Gulf.
The Gulf has too much northerly shear right now and has a low chance for anything to form in it in the short term. There is an area of lower pressure that is the remnants of a mid latitude system. Since it is close to land and is worth watching to see if conditions change.
There is however, tons of moisture in the Gulf will cause a lot of extra rainfall in the southeast either way. There is a low chance (10%) of development here. It would take a while for anything to transition to tropical here.
This system is being tracked as Invest area 95L.
Most likely the system in the Gulf will not develop.
Another viable potential wave right now is one in the Central Atlantic (near 40W), but that probably won't even get a shot at development until it gets much closer to the Caribbean.
Models are picking up something in the West Caribbean for early next week as well.
Those in Texas/Mexico will have to deal with the Flooding Rains. Otherwise, for those in the US, enjoy independence weekend, but keep watching the tropics.
{{NorthGulfRadar}}
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Invest 95L|95|2|2010|1|}}
{{StormLinks|Invest 96L|96|3|2010|2|}}
| Fairhopian |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 12:47 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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Mike, were you speaking to the NHC 10% potential for development in the Big Bend area when you said the northerly shear would prevent it? Also, can someone describe the convective feature south of the Bay of Pigs? I have seen no official mention of it and can see no low level winds associated with it, but it has that cyclonic look, as well as a lot of moisture to work with.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 12:51 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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Was referring to the Northeastern Gulf area (the 10% area). The shear is quite noticeable on the water vapor imagery.
I'm changing around the main page a bit now that I'm looking a bit closer at things.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 12:58 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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As far as the West Caribbean:
From Houston:
The Nam/Gfs/Ecmwf Are All Working A
Tropical Wave into a Tizzy in the Western Caribbean on Monday
Unfortunately the Same Upper Ridging Should Be Flattening And
Shifting East Opening Up the Western Gulf to This Wave/Tropical
System. Interestingly the 00z Ecmwf Looks Like the 18z Gfs Which
Has It Nearing the Texas Coast Friday the 9th. It is Still To
Early to Hang a Hat on This Solution but Should Still Point to The
Possibility of Something of Interest in the Western Gulf. Rain
Chances Should Be Coming Down Monday and Tuesday as Moisture Thins
And Upper Ridging Creeps Southward.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 01:10 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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Invest 95L is the area in the northeast Gulf.
{{StormLinks|Invest 95L|95|2|2010|1|}}
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 03:32 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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Had anyone here looked at that Tampa Radar loop this morning. Lots of precipitation moving in a generally circular pattern over this area. There seem to be lines of storms that spin out of the GOM every so often. There was one approaching Pinellas County last night when I went to bed and another one was evident this morning. It is still basically visible stretching west and northwest of Tampa? Are these features due to that upper low that spun our way the past couple of days?? Wet day here anyways.
| Fairhopian |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 03:56 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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Quote:
Was referring to the Northeastern Gulf area (the 10% area). The shear is quite noticeable on the water vapor imagery.
Looking at the last few Visible frames, there are a couple of westward moving vortices in this area. While the most predominant one appears to be over land, it is about to emerge over the warm, oil slick waters south of Panama City. While the WV shows no moisture, local radar does show some, so the air is not exactly or completely dry.
Since it's so close to my backyard, my eyes are fixed on the area south of PC for the next few hours as the atmosphere warms and the front shifts back and forth, though the shear may still keep that non-tropical low reduced to a ghost.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 04:00 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 02 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-032
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1700Z
D. 28.5N 86.5W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0445Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Pardon the remark. That oil doesn't seem to be having a whole lot of effect on the weather. Looks like it's the other way around. The weather is messing up the oil recovery efforts.
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 04:01 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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Looking at water vapor loops, it appears the area where 95L is being plotted is immediately to the East of the big upper level high that allowed Alex to "breathe", and just south of a mid summer cold front that has a ton of dry air behind it. Upper level winds are not conducive to development.
There's another big ULL East of the Bahamas and another in the west central Carribean.
In the near term I can't see any tropical development in the traditional July breeding grounds.
Way too much shear.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 04:04 PM |
| Attachment |
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Invest 95L - Non-Tropical Low
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The first question everybody is likely to be asking is whether this surface low pressure center that is developing on or near the stationary front in the GOM is tropical; the answer is NO. This doesn't imply that at some future date it may become tropical; however it is unlikely and here are the reasons why:
1. UW-CIMMS analysis this morning has winds from the N and NNW at 20 knots and higher to the west.
2. Eastern USA longwave trough continues to dig (as depicted via water vapor satellite imagery) into the NE GOM and analysis of the 500 millibar upper air analysis reveals the trough extending across FL to a cutoff upper low at 29N 84W.
3. Over the past several days weight has been given more towards the ECMWF and it's run to run performance than the GFS which while consistent has been overly aggressive with this feature.
4. There's no doubt there's a low; however it is in my opinion it is baroclinic and not tropical at this time. Given the upper air environment and the amount of time it would take for this system to transform from baroclinic to tropical; highly unlikely.
5. I see nothing to suggest a hybrid storm at this time however there is one fly in the ointment; next week models invert an upper trough along the SE coast.
6. One interesting feature is along the ITCZ. There is a tropical wave along 10N and 45W moving west and short of another disturbance south of Cuba; they are the only notable features today that have light shear above them; however for anything to develop there; shear must remain light directly over these systems; the surrounding environment is hostile.
Last but not least; Happy July 4th weekend to one and all and a reminder to keep residents of the Gulf coast in your hopes and prayers as the oil spill continues. I doubt there is a better sandwich than a Shrimp Po Boy and a cold, cold beer...okay two, fresh raw oysters, Ritz Crackers, hot sauce and cold, cold beer!
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 04:12 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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There is an upper low in the NE GOM that explains why the precip is rotating counter clock; I hope that helps! Take care...Sincerely, Bill B.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 04:42 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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I agree on the little low now south of St. Marks, FL. Lots of upper level wind shear here.
My eyes are drawn to the southern and western Carribean, in addition to the NEGOM. The ECMWF brings another feature up out of this area and into the WGOM next week. The flare up exiting N'Wrd off from South America looks impressive. There already is a cyclonic twist to the cloud mass south of Cuba, probably in association with an upper low.
Still plenty left over from last week in this area to play with. Conditions more favorable in this region to support development.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 06:03 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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Plenty to watch for the weekend. RECON will fly around Noon on Saturday to investigate what's to come for the rest of the weekend.
""Last but not least; Happy July 4th weekend to one and all and a reminder to keep residents of the Gulf coast in your hopes and prayers as the oil spill continues. I doubt there is a better sandwich than a Shrimp Po Boy and a cold, cold beer...okay two, fresh raw oysters, Ritz Crackers, hot sauce and cold, cold beer!""
Barq's root beer works great too!
| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 07:02 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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12z GFS, CMC, ECMWF and NAM continue to develop the wave that is exiting north off of South America. Landfall is currently at the end of the long range forecast, so many things can change between now and then, but I really hope this is not true. 1st because it is showing to come on shore in almost the exact same location as Alex, but even if this is not the case, just the general area would create even more flooding disasters than there currently are. Even being in Houston, we continue to get the onshore flow ever since Alex moved through and there is plenty of flooding in the area. 2nd I hope this doesn't happen because I have vacation on the Texas coast (Rockport) starting next Friday (168 hours away)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 09:19 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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There are recon missions planned for this system tomorrow, they may be canceled if nothing happens with 95L. If any development occurs, it probably won't be purely tropical.
Recon won't have far to travel in any case.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 02 2010 09:25 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: What's Next?
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95L hmm.... getting beat by the dry air aloft and the shear... but hanging in there! Lots lightning in the red area and to the north...
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 03 2010 12:08 AM |
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Re: What's Next?
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I've been looking at the Wind Shear analysis this evening...there's one remote shot that 95L might have to be taken seriously. There is an area of wind shear less than 10 knots that begins over South FL and extends southward through Cuba into the extreme western Caribbean and has been migrating northward. Winds over 95L are currently between 15 and 20 knots from the north. Now the bad news...wind shear rises dramatically from east to west becoming 30 knots near Mobile Bay, 40 knots over the MS River delta and LA and 50 knots near Houston, all from the north. I don't want everybody to get alarmed if recon runs a mission into the area for research. I grant you it's a pretty looking image on satellite and it will tests some nerves. I still believe the ECMWF is handling this system and that is a weak non-tropical low moving southwest and west in response to the upper ridge to it's north.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 03 2010 02:31 PM |
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Re: What's Next?
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I don't think 95L will have much of a chance in the NE Gulf because
it has taken in too much dry air. The strong shear in place over it continues
to tear any convection apart pretty quickly. The only chance I think it may
have is if it can work its way more toward the southwest than west. The area
that looks better today than yesterday is south of Jamaica since there has
been a nice blow up of convection there. It is in a pretty favorable area for
development with warm waters and low shear.
Any thoughts on the Western Caribbean wave today, anyone?
P.S. Here's a link to some REALLY good satellite imagery that is updated more
frequently than others: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 03 2010 07:10 PM |
Re: What's Next?
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95L appears to be trying to organize even though it is still
in a pretty hostile environment. The NHC has upped its chance
of developing from 10% to 20%. The NHC keeps saying that if
it develops it could have subtropical characteristics. I was
wondering why that is because aren't subtropical systems
typically associated with cool water? Whatever the case may be,
we don't need any more flooding rain in Texas-Alex was enough:(.
Also, could someone tell me what the website is that you guys
use when you post the progress of the RECON flights? Thanks.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 05:46 AM |
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Re: What's Next?
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The wave in the Western Caribbean has some pretty impressive convection firing tonight and it looks to be right under an ULH which is providing good outflow. I think this one is the one more likely to be a headache this week
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 02:04 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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The 12z models that have come out initialize 96L much farther south
than the 06z run. I think they may have gone too far south
because the visible satellite shows what looks to be a circulation
east of Jamaica (as of 13:45); however, this could be a "fake" one
that spun off from the convection.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 02:29 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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Dont know what your looking @ unless you ment west of Jamaica not east. That though is a midlevel vortex. If a LLC organizes..probably be further SW north of Honduras or off the Yucitan.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 02:48 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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I am sure the post before meant west.
I have not studied the models on 96L, but visual observation suggests that the steering off the Yucatan is more northerly than westerly. I think the bulk of this system will move Nw'ly in the near time. After a bit the flow seems to be NE'ly along the trough in the CGOM.
I don't know how long this pattern will persist, so it could all relax to a more westerly flow in a day or so.
Right now the 95L feature is bringing copious amounts of moisture over the peninsula out of the Caribbean. The forecast is for that to move out today or tomorrow and restore an easterly flow. That would explain the forecast for 96L to be headed for the WGOM again.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 03:04 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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Sorry about the confusion, I meant west. I agree with you guys
that it is not a LLC after all. It will likely form close to where the
models show (north of Honduras). I still think it has a pretty good
shot at developing, especially once in the Gulf of Mexico.
Also, the NHC has a RECON flight planned for 96L tomorrow.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 06:32 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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just might be my eyes, but i think a second weaker low has formed off the Florida Phndl. about 125 miles SW of Panama City? 95L is hanging in there... and appears to me the westward movement has slowed and maybe taken on a drift or slow wobble... which i would think a turn the NW would be coming. The second low or small vortice is see is SW of Panama City. It has showers and storm to the east of the spin and one or two storms near its coc.
96L appears to right where the models are showing... altho a more NW direction would seem to be happening in the short term to me?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 07:07 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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The low center associated with a stalled frontal boundary across the NE GOM tagged Invest 95L appears to have broken free of its frontal attachments this morning, and has been rapidly consolidating and becoming much more defined at the surface, and a small tropical cyclone could be forming this afternoon.
Currently, a well-defined surface circulation appears to be taking hold in the neighborhood of 27N 89W. Regional surface obs confirm that a small, well-defined LLC probably now exists, or very nearly so, and is underneath a pocket of persistent moderate convection, lower shear values and in less dry air, compared to the past several days.
Close-up visible floater loop also confirms the likely existence of a closed LLC in this general location.
What is not yet evident are significant pressure falls and/or increases in wind speed, but it is also possible that the obs are also not yet sampling the regions within the very center of the cyclone, where a small core of strong winds and pressure falls may be underway.
Intensity: Invest 95L remains in a less-than-ideal environment for intensification, and yet, it appears to have consolidated at the surface, broken free of its front, and for the moment, be nestled in a relative sweet spot. It remains possible that just a small shift out of this "sweet spot" would subject the fledgling cyclone to intense northerly shear and a lot more dry air.
Weakening is probably just as likely as further organization over the next 48 hours, or until the system moves inland, but it is indeed possible that a short-lived named storm comes out of this.
Impacts: Likely to be brief and very localized for a tropical cyclone, if it does indeed make the grade prior to coming inland. 95L is a small system, and tropical storm force winds, if any, would probably be restricted to a fairly small area. Convection is not particularly deep, either, given all of the dry air still in the region. As such, rainfall would mostly be light, save for the core of the system, where it could be heavy.
Movement into Texas could have locally greater impacts, as this state is already inundated from rains related to Alex all this week. At this time, most forecast tracks take 95L through far eastern Texas and/or western half of Louisiana. Might temporarily upset some vacation plans, especially along the beach. Oil/tar balls could further be thrown into sensitive marshes, and over some more beach
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 07:31 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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If 95L was to organize further and possibly become a depression,
wouldn't it have a tendency to pull 96L further north, at least in the
short term? I think the 18z model run is catching on to this by moving
the track of 96L further north toward the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 07:59 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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Quote:
If 95L was to organize further and possibly become a depression,
wouldn't it have a tendency to pull 96L further north, at least in the
short term? I think the 18z model run is catching on to this by moving
the track of 96L further north toward the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Invest 95L is a very small system, and as such, probably would not have the opportunity to directly influence the future track of the much larger 96L a whole lot, but it seems reasonable to me to expect some tugs in the near term. If the stalled front starts to pull out a bit more, and a little bit of higher pressure builds in place of 95L and/or the front, I would think there could even be some westward push on 96L next week.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 08:22 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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Satellite imagery, loops, and radar data from NO / BR radar seems to suggest that 95L, although being a very small system, is actually showing some signs of organisation. Might be worth watching a little more closely over the next few hours to see if this trend continues.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 08:52 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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sat imagery is showing 95L is prolly a very small weak tropical storm now... with winds of 35mph... clearly a TD to me, and movement is north is last few images... 95L broke free of the front and showed to me a warm core IMHO.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_GULF/anim16vis.html
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 09:21 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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I estimate the MLC at roughly 27.5N 89.8W, as of this reply. Not as confident where the LLC is in relation to that, but I think it's very close. It is a little bewildering that area obs of surface pressures are not yet falling much at all in response to the improvements today, but then again, 95L is not a particularly deep cyclone with a tiny inner core, and most likely most of the action still remains aoa 925mb. Recon might be useful right now - 95L is probably just too small for the existing surface samples to give a clear picture.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 09:44 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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You guys a right on the money. I noticed earlier this afternoon that the ring of convection/ clouds around 95L had become storm centered.
Skater pulled her arms in. Increasing the spin. Right?
That' s basic statement of what appeared in the last 24 hours. In the northern GOM.
96L is creeping it's way across the Western Caribbean with a cyclonically curved cloud band noted from the Yucatan Channel along the southern coast of Cuba and into the Central Caribbean. Definantly a system to watch due to it's proximity to the Gulf Coast.
2100Z thumbs from U S Navy.
95L
96L
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 10:03 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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95L continues to become organized, so I have a feeling the NHC will
tag it as a depression this evening. I don't think it is a tropical storm just
yet. This is not good news for the people dealing with the oil spill.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 10:33 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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Quote:
I estimate the MLC at roughly 27.5N 89.8W, as of this reply. Not as confident where the LLC is in relation to that, but I think it's very close. It is a little bewildering that area obs of surface pressures are not yet falling much at all in response to the improvements today, but then again, 95L is not a particularly deep cyclone with a tiny inner core, and most likely most of the action still remains aoa 925mb. Recon might be useful right now - 95L is probably just too small for the existing surface samples to give a clear picture.
Using your coordinates. I plugged them into a zoomable 248nm base reflectivity product from NWS Slidell,LA. Coordinates are Dead On right now.
Loop link below is beginning to indicate a northward drift and it appears that a convective band is trying to develop to the west of the center.
248nm Radar zoom on 95L
Storm Hunter has located a second LOW in trail of 95L.
Currently due south of Pensacola,FL. Radar loop centered on second Low.
Will the Fujiwara effect moves this second Low onshore? Time will tell. There is a bit of an offset in the latitudes.
Low pressure area south of Pensacola, Mobile,AL radar loop
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 04 2010 10:52 PM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010
VALID JUL 04/1200 UTC THRU JUL 08/0000 UTC
...SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF
THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER BUT REMAINS SLOWER AND
GENERALLY DEEPER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET SOLNS. THE 12Z GFS
APPEARS TO BE A FAST NRLY OUTLIER...ESP WITH ITS ENERGY ALOFT. THE
06Z GFS WAS MORE REASONABLE AND IN BETTER LINE WITH THE
ECMWF/UKMET CAMP. THE 12Z GEM GLOB APPEARS TO BE DEEP OUTLIER
ALOFT...AND PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON A NEW GULF LOW ON DAY 2/3 THAT
TRACKS TWD THE GULF COAST WHICH IS NOT AT ALL SUPPORTED BY THE
OTHER GLOBAL MDLS. THE 12Z UKMET CONTINUES TO HAVE OVERALL THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYS WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND ALSO CONTINUING
TO REFLECT A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN THAT ULTIMATELY TAKES THE
CURRENT LOW INTO SWRN LA TWD THE END OF DAY 1. HOWEVER...THE UKMET
SFC PRESSURES MAY BE A TAD TOO LOW BY THE END OF THE PD...AND TO
THAT EXTENT A BLEND WITH THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTED WHICH IS A BIT
WEAKER.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WNH/PMDHMD
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jul 05 2010 12:17 AM |
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Re: Watching Four Areas
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Perhaps the lead on this forum should be " Watching 4 areas" - - Afternoon NHC update now lists 3 "yellow: and 1 Orange area
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2010 09:30 AM |
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Re: Watching Two Areas
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Looks like 95l has made a comeback...large ball of convection over it this morning