MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Jul 24 2010 12:40 AM
Watching Two Areas

Update - 11PM EDT, July 31PM,2010
The area in the east Atlantic has been dropped (as 90L), it still has a good chance at forming sometime this coming week, but it may be re designated later because the old 90L area actually was several. If the new area is re designated it may suggest a further westward track and those in the Northeastern Caribbean will want to watch the system.

Still too early to tell beyond that, but it's worth watching over the week, especially if it develops.


{{StormLinks|91L|91|4|2010|1|91L}}


Update - 7PM EDT, July 29,2010
A wave in the Eastern Atlantic near 30 West and at a very low latitude has a 20% chance for development over the next 48 hours. This will likely move generally westward and has a better chance for development next week. This has been designated 90L by the Tropical Prediction Center. It likely won't have a real chance to develop until it gets a little further north of where it goes, so it may not develop at all. Forecast models are nearly useless this far out. That said, currently, the most likely scenario is that the system stays out to sea (But odds are only slightly in this favor)

Another area east of the Bahamas has a 10% chance for development, and isn't as likely to develop overall, but will need to be watched if it survives and persists in the eastern Caribbean.



Update - 6PM EDT, July 26,2010
Over the Atlantic Basin, it is currently Quiet, with nothing imminent for development. The only area currently that could be something later is the area in the Central Atlantic, but chances are extremely low anything will be seen from it.

This will likely end July quietly, with things likely ramping up by mid August.

Update - 7AM EDT, July 25,2010
The remnant low of what was left of Bonnie drifted ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River last night, bringing some showers to eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Convective activity still persists south of Tampico, Mexico, and east of Nicaragua - but near-term development is not expected.

SAL and windshear still evident in the central and eastern Atlantic so the Basin is rather quiet.
ED

Original Post
Bonnie crossed Florida from South of Miami and exited the west coast near Ft. Myers, and is now back over water in the Gulf of Mexico. It is a very sheared system, but the center is being aggressive at reforming and may become a Tropical Storm again before another landfall in Mississippi or Louisiana, perhaps as a sheared, but mid-strength Tropical Storm.

Thos along the northern Gulf coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area should watch Bonnie. Most likely it will bring a little rain and some wind to the area in the North Gulf, and perhaps a very slight storm surge, but nothing major.



Dual Radar recording of Bonnie Approach to South Florida and Northern Gulf coast (Flhurricane recording)

{{NortheastGulfRadar}}


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 24 2010 12:44 AM
Re: Very Sheared Bonnie Back over Water in the Gulf

Recon did a pass on center... 1010mb surface center... convection north and nw of surface center

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 0:02:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°14'N 82°39'W (26.2333N 82.65W)
B. Center Fix Location: 56 miles (91 km) to the WSW (241°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 779m (2,556ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 65° at 37kts (From the ENE at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 126 nautical miles (145 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 755m (2,477ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:22:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 24 2010 01:54 AM
Re: Very Sheared Bonnie Back over Water in the Gulf

Recon just made a second pass on center... appears pressure still the same... but the exited out due north from center and appears that surface winds are TS force about 10 miles from center area and northward to last obs data i see... so Bonnie may be back at 40mph in next adv. or they may hold off to see if its a trend. Shear still appears to be winning!

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 24 2010 02:09 AM
Re: Very Sheared Bonnie Back over Water in the Gulf

convection is to the NW of surface center... with center being on the outside of those storms... there is some squally winds in there... Recon flew outbound threw the area... higher winds at flight level... and prolly a little bumpy too! hehe

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 01:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 1:36:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°13'N 83°03'W (26.2167N 83.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 79 miles (128 km) to the WSW (249°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 782m (2,566ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 1 nautical miles (1 statute miles) to the W (268°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 51° at 15kts (From the NE at ~ 17.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NNW (339°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 765m (2,510ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the north quadrant at 1:47:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the north quadrant at 1:47:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the E (89°) from the flight level center


JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 24 2010 09:29 PM
Re: Very Sheared Bonnie Back over Water in the Gulf

And Bonnie is down for the count. Barring a Humberto style spinup, this system is pretty much done for.

stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Jul 25 2010 12:21 AM
Re: Maybe I'm all wet

but if Bonnie wasn't the most over-hyped tropical system I don't know what was.

Not talking about the guys here, or the pros at the NHC because Bonnie was handled like any disorganized storm.

TWC, the networks, local news, the politicians here, etc. had this as a huge crisis. They hardly covered the science, it was all about planning for an imminent disaster.

I hope the public isn't turned off to all this panic reporting and when we really need to be vigilant they have tuned out the networks. A few more Bonnies will really hurt their credibility.


flanewscameraman
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jul 25 2010 02:13 AM
Re: Maybe I'm all wet

what is the large area of convection in the extreme southern part of the Caribbean, any one have any thoughts?

JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Sun Jul 25 2010 03:14 AM
Re: Maybe I'm all wet

The remnant CoC is coming onshore right now right where the Mississippi River Delta meets the GoM.

As for the Caribbean Activity, it seems there are several factors associated with the convection glob south of Cuba. I think its best described as from this snippet of the 8:05 PM EDT NHC Discussion;

Quote:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 60W...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N77W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 22N77W CENTER TO 15N80W. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF
27N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 16N TO CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA FROM EAST TO WEST..AND FROM 17N TO 18N
BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING EASTERN CUBA TO 19N77W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
79W AND 81W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE 22N77W 15N80W
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
A LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...
ACROSS EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND EVENTUALLY
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. ALL THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF 65W...POSSIBLY CONNECTED TO THE 24N67W-PUERTO RICO
TROUGH. THESE TROUGHS/AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW ARE TO THE EAST
AND/OR SLIGHTLY ON TOP OF THE 20N63W 11N67W TROPICAL WAVE.




danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Jul 25 2010 11:40 AM
Re: Maybe I'm all wet

Bonnie is far from typical as highlighted in this excerpt from New Orleans NWS Morning Forecast Discussion.
The remnants generated a Tornado Warning around 430 AM local time for Plaquemine Parish. Just south of New Orleans... where some of the BP Encampment is located.
One hour rainfall estimates of 3 inches per hour or more in the proximity of the storm center.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
508 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW IS EVIDENT ON THE 88D RETURNS...AND
HAVE RECENTLY BECOME VERY CONCERNED ABOUT ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS
AND SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS NEAR THE REMNANT LOW CENTER SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG CELL ROTATION IS NOT YOUR TYPICAL TROPICAL VARIETY WITH 60
KNOTS OR SHEAR DETECTED EARLIER WITH THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE
FIRST TORNADO WARNING NEAR LAFITTE LA.


mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Jul 25 2010 05:33 PM
Re: Maybe I'm all wet

99L is this a new invest?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi


WesnWylie
(Weather Guru)
Sun Jul 25 2010 05:41 PM
Re: Maybe I'm all wet

It sure looks like it. This is the area that the NHC gives a near 0% chance of development though, which contradicts itself. Kind of puzzling.

The Skeetobite model run shows it as 99L. These models were run @ 12z today. http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=99


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Jul 25 2010 06:27 PM
Invest 99L

See the thread 'Bay of Campeche' in The Tropics Today Forum for additional information on this initially overlooked system.
ED


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 27 2010 01:27 AM
Re: Quiet For Now (6 PM Update, July 26)

I don't know about that. I'm watching the wave that is currently over the Yucatan as it moves into the SW Gulf of Mexico. It has been rather persistent and there appears to be some cyclonic turning, at least in the mid levels.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Jul 27 2010 03:08 AM
Re: Quiet For Now

The TPC Tropical Weather Discussion notes that there is a trough over the Yucatan, not a tropical wave - and the Discussion sums up the state of the Basin: 'VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN.'

Absolutely nothing wrong with 'quiet'.
ED


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 27 2010 12:31 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

Any possible development with the convection off the SC coast...is that just a trough or the end of a front?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Jul 27 2010 12:51 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

Quote:

Any possible development with the convection off the SC coast...is that just a trough or the end of a front?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html




If it persists through the day, then yes, although chances are pretty low right now <2%.

Interesting to remember the last time the current set of names was used was in 2004. Colin replaces Charley, Fiona replaces Frances, Julia replaces Jeanne, and Igor replaces Ivan. Charley didn't become a tropical storm until August 10th, and Bonnie became a Tropical storm on August 9th in 2004.



ChrisS
(Registered User)
Wed Jul 28 2010 12:08 AM
Re: Quiet For Now

I am a new poster here (but an avid reader for the last two tropical seasons). First off, thanks to everyone here for the great coverage, comments and calm analysis. I enjoy having a trusted resource such as this (being a relative noob to tropical weather events).

I have been following some threads over at Weather Underground and I have to say the commentary there is all over the map with this season's forecasts. It seems quiet now but what is the consensus here regarding the latest wave off coast of Africa that some of the models are forecasting to develop quite aggressively in the next few days? I have not seen that discussion here and frankly, I trust this groups collective intelligence more than some of the other alarmist discussion groups on other sites. I am hoping the quiet lasts a little longer and the projection of 19 named systems is over-forecast. -Chris


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Jul 28 2010 02:32 AM
Re: Quiet For Now

What's probably being overemphasized there is the long range models, this is the time of year you start to look much further east for development, but it's still a tad early for it. The African wave looks impressive now, but only really has a 30% chance to stay together once offshore, and if anything develops it would be much later. Long range models are just reflecting the normal potential for systems developing increasing into mid August, but it's usually just magnets for hype. In short, really reaching for something to watch. In short, if there were something else going on right now it would probably be mostly ignored.

In short, I don't expect the wave over Africa to do much, at least this one. If it persists over two-three days maybe. I don't expect much if anything this week, but things can change quickly.

Right now Central Atlantic Westward is the place to watch, and that grows further east into mid August. If any of the waves develop it wouldn't be anytime soon. The best course of action is to watch the convection persistence of an area over a 24 hour period or so, and if it stays mostly organized then it becomes worth watching, and then watch for trends. The area around 32W, if it were slightly further north would be such an area to watch for persistence. A surprising number of African waves fall apart after getting over water, but sometimes these reorganize much further west, but mostly they don't.

It's a good time to check on hurricane supplies though, because once it starts in August it may be pretty busy.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Jul 28 2010 03:40 AM
Re: Quiet For Now

Since only one in every ten tropical waves will develop into a tropical cyclone (on average), here we tend to wait until a wave shows some signs of falling into that 10% category before getting into a discussion about it. The only model that I could find that develops a wave in the next week was the CMC - and the Canadian Model is not the best model to use for this type of activity since its not really a tropical model (for that matter, neither is the GFS). Perhaps because the model was designed for better accuracy in temperate climates, it will often generate a spurious storm that never materializes. As I've mentioned before (probably far too many times), the model outputs are not the forecast, they are just occasionally useful guidance for developing a forecast.
Cheers,
ED


WesnWylie
(Weather Guru)
Wed Jul 28 2010 02:31 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

It looks to me that the wave off the coast of Africa around 25*W; 10*N (as of 12z), may be an area of interest as we get into the weekend. That chance for development is heavily dependent on the SAL to the north of it. If the wave manages to stay south of the SAL, I think it may have a decent chance to develop by the middle of next week. Other than that, observations and model trends don't show anything else of real concern in the next several days.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Jul 28 2010 03:59 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

Let's see if that area persists or falls apart as they tend to do. It is worth watching for a few days as it moves westward, but nothing to get concerned about right now.

allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Jul 28 2010 04:24 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

The CMC, GEM, NOGAPS, and the reliable EURO model now develop the wave off of Africa. It's reasonable and I expect more models to jump on because conditions are becoming favorable where the SAL is now lifting north, in fact, SAL should not be an issue with this wave. Things are moistening up and shear is on the decline. The NHC may mention it tonight if the EURO makes another aggressive run on the system. It takes it to the Caribbean which sounds reasonable to me do to the westward motion of the storms so far this year. Though I notice the EURO doesn't have a big high in the southeast at the time it has what appears to be Hurricane Colin nearing PR. This is all by observation. The NOGAPS keeps the storm weak as the CMC, like the EURO aggressively develops it, though it takes it out to sea. It's definitely something to watch now that the EURO has jumped on board. We might be seeing our first Cape Verde development this weekend.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Wed Jul 28 2010 07:59 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

Its looking like its holding together much better than the previous waves. Its even generating some new convection.
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR108/COLOR/FULLDISC/


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Jul 28 2010 09:30 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

Note that on the 28/12Z run of the 10-day ECMWF, the system is no more!

Until there is some model consistency (and until it gets a lot closer to anywhere) ... well, you get the idea. It could still do something, but that 'something' is likely to be about a week from now at the earliest.
ED


Jane
(Registered User)
Wed Jul 28 2010 11:04 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

TWC just mentioned the wave off Africa as something to watch but not to be concerned about - yet.

ncskywarn
(Registered User)
Thu Jul 29 2010 08:44 AM
Re: Quiet For Now

Lets see if the area of convection off the coast of Africa can sustain itself once it separates itself from the ITCZ, if it does then we will have something to watch. Until or unless that happens it is probably not even going to be anything the NHC will list as a invest. As of now it is still well embedded in the ITCZ.

This link also shows no indication of a LLCC developing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...zoom=&time=


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Jul 29 2010 10:54 AM
Re: Quiet For Now

The area along 30W is too far south, as stated before, but if it slips more north it could do something later, as in next week.

The area east of the Caribbean (approx 55w) has a long way to go to be organized enough to do anything and is way too linear, so it likely won't.

Those are the two blob areas that are there for those looking for something/anything to watch, but I don't expect anything to develop this week at all.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Jul 29 2010 02:53 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

My feeling exactly. The area off Africa needs to gain some latitude before there is an improved chance for development. Yes, quiet for the next several days.

WesnWylie
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 29 2010 07:52 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

The NHC has highlighted the wave near the Windward Islands at 10%, and they marked the wave that is moving into the Central Atlantic at 20%. It looks like the wave in the Atlantic(the one @ 20%) is looking better this afternoon. If it was to develop, which it is still too early to say, it would likely track toward Cuba by next weekend.



WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 29 2010 08:57 PM
Re: Quiet For Now

Its been designated 90L

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 30 2010 01:46 AM
Re: Watching Two Areas


The 18z run of the tropical models are developing 90L more significantly now.

NCEP noted earlier in the day that there are 10 analogs for next week's expected synoptic scale pattern across the Atlantic Basin, and of those 10, 6 had a developed or developing tropical cyclone, 4 of which were in the western quadrant of the subtropical/tropical Atlantic Basin. This is in the general region where the models are moving 90L.

Currently convection is not as robust as the last 24 hours, however, there is interestingly a slightly more discerned cyclonic banding in appearance.

There is still just a 20% chanced assigned to this entity - for what ever method those chances are derived. What I personally like about this feature is that it emerged off the west coast of Africa (N of Sierra Leone) in an at least temporary abatement of the Saharan Air Layer contamination in the region, which had been fairly pervasive prior.

In terms of the outlook the only issue standing in the way of 90L may actually be easterly shear. A strengthening Azores high arming strongly across the breadth of the Basin argue for deepening easterly trades. Otherwise, the oceanic heat content is high, and if the trades are manageable, storm relative shear would be low.


WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 31 2010 08:25 PM
Re: Watching Two Areas

Interestingly the NHC has increased the area out in the Atlantic to Orange

Jasonch
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 31 2010 11:57 PM
Re: Watching Two Areas

NHC Has up the probability to 40% for the wave in the eastern atlantic.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 31 2010 11:57 PM
Re: Watching Two Areas

I believe they changed it to a Orange at 2 PM this afternoon. This one might deserve a bit more than a once daily look.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 01 2010 02:43 AM
Re: Watching Two Areas

Tough to tell, but it appears that, at the very least there is definite cyclonic turning, and at the most, there is a center of sort forming within a cluster of convenction centered, as of the 01:45 UTC shot, near 8-9N and 32-35W, at least according to the still and looped Rainbow IR imagery.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 01 2010 03:33 AM
Re: Watching Two Areas

The area in the east Atlantic has been dropped (as 90L), it still has a good chance at forming, but it may be re designated later because the old 90L area actually was several. If the new area is re designated it may suggest a further westward track and those in the Northeastern Caribbean will want to watch the system. Still too early to tell beyond that, but it's worth watching if it develops.

JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 01 2010 04:22 AM
Re: Watching Two Areas

I'm suprised it was dropped as 90L. The area of convection I mentioned has been flaring up and organizing a lot in the past couple of hours. Very definitive curved aspect to it, again indicating the presence of at least cyclonic turning, but I'm starting to lean towards there being a center of circulation, located at about 8.8N and 35.5W, as of the 03:15 UTC, at least according to different IR images and Dvorak Satellite Loops.

WesnWylie
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 01 2010 05:10 AM
Re: Watching Two Areas

I have a feeling it will be relabeled as 91L; however, I don't know how soon they will do it. Although it seems unlikely, some models show two systems developing from this area, so I think the NHC will wait until a more defined circulation develops. It certainly is looking healthy tonight, though.


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