Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Sep 05 2010 09:33 PM
Watching The Eastern Atlantic

Update - 1130PM EDT Tuesday, Sept 7, 2010
Just a quick note to mention that Ex-Gaston has weakened again and that recent movement north of due west is likely to drive what remains of the wave into Haiti on Wednesday.

The wave off of Africa looks a little better this evening (Invest 91L) but its still going to take a couple of days for the system to organize.
ED

Update - 8PM EDT Tuesday, Sept 7, 2010
Ex-Gaston system located about 65 miles south of Puerto Rico at 08/00Z moving west at 18 knots with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and a central pressure of 1009MB. It was at this point in time that some of the model runs about 4 days ago suggested that the system would enter an environment a little more suited to development – and the convective activity this evening is the best that the wave has mustered in quite some time. Its hard to recall that this system was actually a tropical storm six days ago when it was barely off the African coast. Most of the intensity models still develop the system into a hurricane in three days while moving it generally westward through the northern Caribbean – and a potential threat to Jamaica after that. Bottom line is that the Ex-Gaston system still has potential for redevelopment.

Hermine is now well inland near Brady, Texas, at 08/00Z as a Tropical Depression moving north at 16 knots with sustained wind of 30 knots. Although Hermine will soon become extra-tropical in nature, the storm will continue to bring heavy rains to central and eastern Texas and Oklahoma and to points north and northeast over the next few days. Significant flooding is likely in those areas.

Invest 91L is a large active wave located near the southeastern Cape Verde Islands moving west at 10 knots with potential for slow development in a few days
ED


Update - 11AM EDT Tuesday, Sept 7, 2010
Hermine is still a minimal Tropical Storm south of San Antonio, Texas, moving north with heavy rainfall expected in large portions of central and eastern Texas and Oklahoma and extra-tropical transition expected soon.

The remnants of former Gaston are moving through the northern Caribbean Sea – still flaring convection from time to time but current chances for regeneration are low.

A strong tropical wave located just off the west African coast will have a better chance for additional development when it moves westward away from the coast – a process that will take a few days.
ED


Update - 10PM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
From NHC:
"DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH"

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS

Recon investigation of Ex-Gaston found that the tropical wave was poorly organized and that the environment has become a little less favorable for redevelopment.
ED

Update - 8PM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
Hermine now located about 80 miles south southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Sustained winds have increased to 65mph and recon reports central pressure down to 991MB. No changes in Watches/Warnings. Forward speed is a bit of a problem in that NHC states a movement to the northwest at 14mph but Brownsville radar shows that the eye has been stationary for at least an hour. No doubt the uncertainty will all be resolved before the next full advisory at 11PM.
ED

Update - 3PM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
Satellite presentation suggests that Hermine has continued to intensify and Recon will arrive at the center soon to determine if the storm has reached hurricane strength. Hermine continues to move to the north northwest although the forward speed seems to have picked up - landfall likely this evening in the Mexico/Texas border area. Residents in that area should prepare for hurricane conditions this evening. As the storm expands after landfall, torrential rainfall and flash flooding are likely in northeast Mexico and south Texas.
ED

Update - 10AM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
Earlier this morning TD Ten intensified and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Hermine, the eighth storm of the season. Hermine is currently located about 275 miles south southeast of Brownsville, Texas, moving to the north at 10mph with sustained winds of 45mph and a central pressure of 999MB. Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for northeast Mexico and southern Texas as follows:

UPDATE: 06/15Z
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS


Hermine should move north to north northwest toward the Mexico/Texas border area while continuing to intensify. SSTs are a toasty 31C and, except for some northerly windshear to the east, conditions are excellent for additional development - perhaps more than currently projected. Considerable rainfall is likely in the northeast Mexico and south Texas coastal areas.

Matamoros, Mexico, Weather Reports

The remnant low of former Gaston was located at 17.5N 56.0W at 06/14Z or about 400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The disorganized system should continue to move generally westward for the next couple of days and should bring showers and gusty winds to the northern Islands tonight and Tuesday. Conditions are still somewhat favorable for re-development of this system which may ultimately meet its final demise over the mountains of Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Caribbean Weather Reports

A strong tropical wave moved off the coast of western Africa this morning and it should be watched for additional development later this week.
ED

Update - 12AM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
At 06/03Z Invest 90L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 10. The TD was located about 200 miles east southeast of Tampico, Mexico, moving slowly to the north. An eventual turn to the north northwest is likely and the cyclone could reach tropical storm strength before landfall in northeast Mexico Tuesday morning.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

ED

Original Post
At 8PM EDT this Sunday evening, the tropical wave associated with the former Gaston was located about 450 nautical miles east of Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands. INVEST 09L has been moving to the west and sometimes just south of due west at 15mph. For the past two days the system has sporadically shown signs of redevelopment but it has also sporadically succumbed to shear and dry air. There is still a high chance that Ex-Gaston will redevelop so folks in the Leeward Islands should monitor this system as it moves west to west southwest over the next few days

A disturbance in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico at the tail end of a trough also has a high chance of development although the system is situated very close to land and was located just offshore northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, at 06/00Z. Veracruz was reporting light rain and a pressure of 1006MB – but the wind has remained calm there for the past few hours. The disturbance is expected to move north northwest for the next couple of days and bring heavy rain to northeast Mexico.

Tampico, Mexico, Weather Conditions

Another strong tropical wave will exit the west coast of Africa on Monday and it has moderate potential for future development.
ED

{{TexasGulfRadar}}
Texas Hourly Weather Reports

{{StormLinks|Ex-Gaston|09|9|2010|4|Ex-Gaston}}
{{StormLinks|Hermine|10|10|2010|1|Hermine}}
{{StormLinks|91L|91|11|2010|2|91L}}


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 06 2010 12:03 AM
Re: The Lull Before The Next Storm

Not a long lull. Tropical Depression #10 declared at 11pm off the coast of Mexico.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 06 2010 12:30 AM
Re: The Lull Before The Next Storm

system is looking better tonight then this afternoon. window is still open for it to make too TS status before a turn to the left and landfall in Mx.



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 06 2010 12:40 AM
Re: The Lull Before The Next Storm Has Ended With TD 10

TD10 is currently in a favorable thermo-atmospheric environment for further strengthening, and is forecast to become our next named storm. However, working against Ten is its very close proximity to land. Additionally, the air to its north and northwest is exceptionally dry, and this could potentially also work against the cyclone, especially should it track to the right (north) of current guidance.

Nonetheless, the greatest threat with Ten looks to be the risk of life-threatening flooding, upon approach, and once inland. In addition to forming in a region of high moisture content, the cyclone is also benefiting from tapping even more tropical moisture out of the eastern Pacific. Also, the stationary front separating the very dry continental airmass to the north from the high moisture content over the Gulf looks to give ground as Ten approaches, and as such, there may actually be relatively little dry air entrainment, when all is said and done.

While currently considered mainly a flood threat for old Mexico, with up to twenty plus inches of rainfall possible in some locations there, just a slight deviation of track to the north could bring tropical storm force conditions and very copious tropical rains to several parts of Texas early to mid week, and perhaps even longer, should the system, or even just its remnants, stall.


JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 06 2010 08:25 AM
Re: The Lull Before The Next Storm Has Ended With TD 10

Tropical Storm Hermine it is now, with winds of 45 mph as of the 7AM Intermediate. Visible and IR Rainbow shows a good solid inner core firing up with banding also showing up very well. I wouldn't be suprised if we see rapid intensification, ala Humberto, the way this thing is rapidly getting its act together this morning.

Jasonch
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 06 2010 09:23 AM
Re: The Lull Before The Next Storm Has Ended With TD 10

Hermine does look decent this morning but with her being so close to land I do not expect rapid strengthening.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 06 2010 10:56 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Develops in Southwestern Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane watches and warnings on the 11am:
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN
FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NORTHWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PORT
OCONNOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 06 2010 10:59 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Develops in Southwestern Gulf of Mexico

Does anyone have any info on why the recon appears to be returning back to base?

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 06 2010 01:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Develops in Southwestern Gulf of Mexico

If Hermine had another night to spend over the Gulf, it would probably really get cranked up, but its remaining several hours over water will occur at a time of day when rapid intensification isn't usually observed as frequently. Based on radar, Hermine seems to have turned to the left somewhat, though it remains to be seen if that trend will hold until landfall. Looks like another plane is on the way to investigate the storm.

Hermine has the potential to be a a major heavy rain producer for parts of the U.S. southern plains if the forecast track holds and it doesn't get hung up over the high terrain of NE Mexico. The risk of isolated tornadoes will increase tonight along and east of the track. The remnant low is forecast to continue into north TX and OK, where it may interact with an old frontal boundary and create an enhanced threat of excessive rain and a few tornadoes. If the NAM and GFS are to be believed, ex-Hermine will continue to pose a compact but significant heavy rain threat into parts of the Midwest toward the end of the week.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 06 2010 03:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Develops in Southwestern Gulf of Mexico

Can anyone explain the extraordinary increase in wind speed on this dropsonde report? A Low Level Jetstream is the only explanation I can come up with other than equipment failure.

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1014mb (Surface) 130° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
1009mb 135° (from the SE) 22 knots (25 mph)
984mb 130° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
971mb 130° (from the SE) 22 knots (25 mph)
964mb 185° (from the S) 14 knots (16 mph)
961mb 105° (from the ESE) 47 knots (54 mph)
959mb 95° (from the E) 157 knots (181 mph)
957mb 95° (from the E) 146 knots (168 mph)

954mb 105° (from the ESE) 51 knots (59 mph)
951mb 125° (from the SE) 24 knots (28 mph)

The raw data is consistant with the decoded data. This was from an earlier flight this morning that returned to base before completeing the mission.
Raw data:
55961 10547
66959 09657
77957 09646


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 06 2010 03:22 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

Its either equipment problems or the data has been misread - in either case though I'm sure that they will release another one. Could also be some position data errors. The storm has really cranked up in a hurry - not an uncommon event in this area.
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 06 2010 03:31 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

Well, not as strong as I thought that they would find.

URNT12 KNHC 061922
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102010
A. 06/19:09:40Z
B. 24 deg 11 min N
096 deg 46 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. 47 kt
E. 046 deg 26 nm
F. 149 deg 48 kt
G. 045 deg 24 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 06 2010 03:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Develops in Southwestern Gulf of Mexico

probably just need to drop the extra 1

959mb 95° (from the E) 57 knots
957mb 95° (from the E) 46 knots


tropicswatch
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 06 2010 04:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Develops in Southwestern Gulf of Mexico

A more distinct eye is now showing on the last few frames of the Brownsville radar http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 06 2010 04:16 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

Recon data indicates that Hermine lacks a well-defined inner core, with a rather broad area of low-end tropical storm force winds but nothing particularly strong near the center. This is supported by radar data, which has shown occasional attempts at partial eyewall formation, but nothing that has taken hold so far. Base velocities from KBRO are increasing somewhat near the center, though (currently maxing out around 60 kts at 12000 ft).

Hermine seems to have resumed a NNW motion after an earlier jog more to the west. It probably does not have time to reach hurricane status before landfall, but it still can't be ruled out if there is another burst of intensification.


WesnWylie
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 06 2010 06:12 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

A well-defined eye has been visible on the radar for the last 20-30 minutes. It appears to be wobbling around which is a sign of some organization taking place within. At this rate, I think that TS Hermine may reach hurricane status prior to landfall tonight.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 06 2010 07:24 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

Hermine has really slowed down in the last couple of hours. The strongest flight level winds so far have actually been observed about 40-60 miles NE of the center. That is the part of the storm that likely will impact the lower TX coast later tonight, so those folks should be aware that conditions could be fairly intense even if landfall takes place well to the south.

It's still struggling to maintain a coherent eyewall, but it has been getting closer on more recent attempts. It is interesting to see the evolution of a storm like this on radar.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 06 2010 07:28 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

Latest recon still has the storm at about 50 knots - but pressure now estimated at 991MB.
ED


WesnWylie
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 06 2010 07:39 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

Is it just me or does it look like the eye of TS Hermine made a jog to the east?

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 06 2010 07:47 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

It looks like the center of Hermine did jog east slightly and now seems to moving steadily northward after slowing down for awhile. Recon just found 60 kt flight level winds in the eastern eyewall with 56 kt sfc winds from the SFMR, so it's possible the intensity will be upped slightly in the next advisory.

There has definitely been more consolidation of the wind field in the radar data in the last hour or so.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 06 2010 07:51 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

I couldn't detect it, and looking at the Brownsville radar the eye has come to a dead stop for at least an hour. Since the steering currents are so weak, its going to be interesting to see what the direction of movement will be when Hermine starts to move again.
ED


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 06 2010 07:58 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

appears to be a slow dirft to the NNW maybe less then 6kts? He's so close to closing off the eyewall on the west side... still seems there is some drier air that still mixing in there between rain bands close to the coc.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 06 2010 08:36 PM
Attachment
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

Latest recon vortex msg was NNE of the previous one. Screenshot attached

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 06 2010 08:37 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

After spinning her wheels for awhile, Hermine has definitely resumed a steady motion to the NNW. While the pressure hasn't been dropping rapidly, the organization of the system seems to be improving and the wind field has continued to consolidate, with the KBRO radar now indicating 70 kts to the immediate east of the center at around 5000 ft. It looks like the NE half of the eyewall could be pretty intense at landfall, if present trends continue.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 06 2010 11:48 PM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

Looks like the center of Hermine is going to pass just west of Brownsville. Radar still shows 70+ kt winds at 500-1000 ft above ground, so strong tropical storm force winds will be possible in that area and other areas just to the north and east of where the center passes.

Edit: A tornado warning was just issued for Cameron county, including the city of Brownsville, until 23:15 CDT.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 07 2010 12:22 AM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

The Brownsville METAR station recently reported sustained winds to 44 mph, with a gust to 69 mph at 2301 CDT. South Padre Island reported a wind gust to 67 mph.

Radar is now showing up to 80 kts at 500-1000 feet just to the north and east of the center, so there could still be some gusts approaching hurricane force along the track of the center, which should parallel the TX/MX border for the next couple of hours.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 07 2010 12:45 AM
Re: Hermine Strengthens and Heads for the Rio Grande

I'm here in South Padre tonight. For an inland tropical storm I can confirm that Hermine is packing a pretty impressive punch, even this distance from the very intense northwestern eyewall, which is now pushing forward almost like a midwestern squall line. South Padre has been experiencing not even the most intense of the outer rainbands, and we are getting regular gusts here above 40, with, as mentioned above, that gust to 67 (first I had heard of that, but from what I have been seeing, entirely believable). Harlingen airport sustained at 43 as I type. Beautiful tropical cyclone, but flooding is going to be a concern going forward, given its deep fetch of tropical moisture.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 07 2010 02:51 AM
Re: Hermine Makes Landfall South of Brownsville, Texas

Hermine is clearly a tropical cyclone clamoring for R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Currently, fully five hours post-landfall, Hermine has just produced sustained winds inland near* Harlingen's Valley International Airport, while being whacked by the remnant eyewall, of 66mph gusting to 80. Reports coming in from the general Harlingen area of numerous trees down.

It appears that Hermine may have indeed been a little more intense heading into landfall, and after a while of a NNW to NW heading, veered more to the north, since, right as the coastline starts to bend inward, in concave fashion, giving Hermine a terrific lifeline, as much of the circulation has remained over water, as a result. Additionally, while the cyclone is very, very moist, some dry air entrainment from its north, northwest & west could well be intensifying some downdrafts.

Hermine could be one of those tropical cyclones that continues to produce areas of tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, much farther inland than expected. Inland locations within Hermine's path not accustomed to tropical storms may want to take some precautions against exposure to these potentially strong winds (bringing in garbage cans, not parking under large branches, etc.). Still, the greatest threat with Hermine continues to be flooding.

*EDITED To reflect accuracy of this report. WeatherBug may have supplemented with a nearby, personal weather station, perhaps, at a time when the anemometer at Valley International Airport went offline. Will clarify once I know for sure. Nonetheless, WeatherBug was reporting a recorded sustained wind of 66 gusting to 80 in Harlingen at that time.


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 07 2010 08:02 PM
Re: Hermine Makes Landfall South of Brownsville, Texas

Hermine is still going strong. We're currently under a tornado warning - the tornado is expected to go just east of our house. Raining cats and dogs, so far we haven't lost any utilities including satellite.

Kinda snuck up on us. It's actually NW of Austin now.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 08 2010 08:14 AM
Re: Hermine Makes Landfall South of Brownsville, Texas

Preliminary data from the NWS Brownsville Post Storm Hurricane report:
KHRL-HARLINGEN VALLEY INTL ARPT
26.22 -97.66 minimum pressure recorded 990.9mb Sept 07/0556Z
peak sustained wind from 120degrees at 051kts ( 58.7mph) 07/0559Z
peak wind gust from 130degrees at 063kts ( 72.5 mph) 07/0558Z

METAR OBSERVATIONS...
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 10 METERS AND WIND AVERAGING IS 2 MINUTES

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PSHBRO&max=61


Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 08 2010 11:23 AM
Re: Hermine Makes Landfall South of Brownsville, Texas

According to 11 am posting - - "Igor" is born - - very Low and very EAST


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