MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 11:12 AM |
Tropical Storm Nicole Fades Away
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5PM EDT Wednesday, 29 Sept 2010 - Update
TS Nicole is no more - I'm not convinced that it ever was
It goes down in the books as a six-hour storm. Center elongated and could no longer be tracked. No further Advisories and all Watches/Warnings have been cancelled. Heavy showers still hitting southeast Florida and the Bahamas. An extratropical gale has formed off the Florida coast and will slam into the Carolinas tonight and Thursday.
Watching two areas in the central Atlantic that have a low probability for any development.
ED
10:53AM EDT Wednesday, 29 September 2010 Update
TD#16 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole.
All Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for Florida have been discontinued as Nicole is forecast to remain East of the State. Rain still will occur along the peninsula.
Outside of this, it is possible for more from the western Caribbean, and there are two areas in the Central Atlantic that have low chances of forming.
Mark Sudduth from Hurricane Track.com is doing live video from the rainfall caused by "Nicole" in North Carolina track him here
West Caribbean IR/Rainbow Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop
Western Caribbean/Storm (Late Sept 2010) Water Vapor Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop
Western Caribbean (Late Sept 2010) Visible Satellite Recording
Cuban Radar
Flhurricane Long Term Radar Recording of Florida Approach of TD#16
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{MidAtlanticRadar}}
{{StormLinks|Nicole|16|16|2010|2|Nicole}}
8:50AM EDT Wednesday, 29 September 2010 Update
The new "best track" for Tropical Depression 16 puts it at 21.9N 80.9W, or offshore just south of Playa Giron, Cuba. (which is due south of Marathon Key).
What this likely means for Florida is just more time for the stream of moisture to pull up from the Caribbean, and more rainfall over a longer period of time.
6:00AM EDT Wednesday, 29 September 2010 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings were extended northward to Sebastian Inlet overnight. The broad area of monsoonal-like convection stretching from Jamaica and points west northward through Florida will continue today, bringing lots of rain to South and East Central Florida. The Depression is in the midst of all this on the north side of Cuba now, and is expected to landfall in south Florida tonight.
Most of the rain associated directly with the storm will be seen in South Florida and East Central Florida (aka, Brevard, Indian River) counties. Rain to the west will exist too, but not as dense or frequent as there. South Florida is already getting the rain, and for Central Florida, most of the rain will show up this afternoon. Rain will extend fairly far north with a combination of the stalled out front and the Caribbean monsoonal like flow.
Once past Florida it will start to lose any tropical characteristics and then increase rain and wind along the Carolinas as a non-tropical system, and probably bring lots of rain there and points northeast.
The depression itself is more of a hybrid storm than anything, and is hard to locate on satellite photography. The official statements are based on radar and Recon findings.
There remains a large mass of activity within the Caribbean that will continue to draw up rain after this, and may potentially form another tropical or hybrid system later. Maybe as soon as this weekend.
8:45PM EDT Tuesday, 28 September 2010 Update
Today's very heavy rainfall in Central Florida was from a stalled out front enhanced by the large broad area of tropical moisture associated with TD#16. In fact, Central Florida received much more rain (so far) than South Florida did today.
The center is still a bit difficult to track as TD#16 is not purely tropical. Pressures are very low in the area however, and it is expected to move nearer to South and Central Florida tomorrow night. Until it gets a persistent center it will probably remain a depression.
2:55PM EDT Tuesday, 28 September 2010 Update
The best track has been altered to read Tropical Depression again, so it may not quite be nicole at 5.
I would not try to base movement on center positions, though, as the center was poorly defined. The overall convection is the best thing to monitor right now. And it may have slower forward motion than indicated.
It may mean some changes in watches/warnings, but still the system is expected to remain at Tropical Storm strength and has to cross over the isle of Youth and Cuba before hand. Those in east Central Florida will want to watch for that.
10:55AM EDT Tuesday, 28 September 2010 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings: Jupiter Inlet South to East Cape Sable, including Keys. Tropical Storm Watch, Chokoloskee south and Sebastian South.
Warnings up for Cuba and Grand Cayman, as well as watches for the western Bahamas.
Most of the energy of the system should stay to the east of Florida, so most of the Florida impact will be in the warning area. A lot depends on how it interacts with Cuba, and how organized it gets before south Florida. Odds favor the system not amounting to much in Florida currently (especially if it moves further east), but it could change. Please heed any local advisories/warnings.
Recon should be arriving near the system around 1PM - 1:30PM this afternoon.
Original Update
The wave in the western Caribbean has remained mostly disorganized overnight, but still is creeping toward organization. It is likely to become a tropical depression or storm today. It appears the complex of storms further eastward than pointed out yesterday (Closer to southwest of the halfway point between the caymans and the Isle of Youth) at this time.
It has a short window to strengthen before approaching Cuba, which land interactions will likely keep it from rapidly strengthening. It appears that perhaps only extreme southeastern Florida will see much impact from the storm as most of the activity will be toward the east. Other parts of Florida likely will see increased rainfall especially tomorrow, but odds are it won't be too bad. It will important to watch for changes in the near term, however, as a lot depends on where the center of the tropical cyclone forms.
The down side to barely missing or clipping extreme southeastern Florida is it increases the risk to the Carolinas and the Northeast that it could be a stronger storm then. Those in Wilmington, NC, may get the really heavy rainfall. The good side is that the storm does not appear to stop moving, so a prolonged downpour is unlikely.
There is still quite a few questions with the system, but it appears, at least for Florida, it won't be much more than rainfall, more the further southeast you go. How much overall depends on how quickly the storm moves and how far east (and possibly away from Florida) it gets. Odds are it will be a non-event in most of Florida. However it could change, and those in Florida will want to continue to watch the system, and heed any official advisories. Rain chances will be very high over the next few days regardless.
Beyond that, the Caribbean likely will continue to bubble up activity for another two weeks or so, none of which seems likely to become major, but will still have to be watched.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 02:06 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Just a note to guide folks to this new thread that was started earlier this morning. Also see the Storm Forum for additional information on this developing system.
ED
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 02:12 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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We have fully Tropical Depression 16!
AL 16 2010092812 BEST 0 202N 828W 30 1001 TD
I thought they were gonna aim for Nicole due to them finding TS force winds in some locations.. Nicole should arrive before the day is out. A nice circulation with deep convection almost around it. Warnings should be up for Cuba and watches should go up for the East Coast of FL when the advisory comes out, should be quite interesting.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 02:12 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Advisories are very likely to begin being issued on TD#16 or Nicole at 11AM. 20.2N, 82.8W
Tropical Storm watches and warnings likely will be issued for Cayman Islands, Cuba, south Florida, and portions of the western Bahamas.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 02:21 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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RECON is scheduled for a start within the hour, at last check. I'll update as soon as the new bulletin is out.
Western side of the model output is just east of a Tampa to Jacksonville line, so most of the Peninsula should pay close attention to this system.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z.............. 11:30 EDT Tuesday
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 02:43 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Thats very interesting that the initial fix would be at 20.2 N and 82.8 W. Not unreasonable given the area of most visible LLC rotation. However, this circulation currently would appear rather elongated and extend to the Southwest. Given the broad nature of this system, I think that it would not be unrealistic to potentially see an adjustment to the positioning. Recon will certainly aid significantly in helping to determine if this evolving system might in fact be developing closer to 19N and 85W, where convection continues to re-fire ( albeit being impacted by moderate shear ). Also will be interesting to see if the far more impressive convective area just to the southeast does in fact start to rotate around the initial position, or it turns out to be transient and decreases with time. This too, might aid overall convergence so that "whatever" LLC might better consolidate. Though near term and future motion would seem to be fairly clustered by most reliable models, the ultimate positioning of the system will certainly have an impact on how much rain or wind parts of Cuba, South Florida, Bahamas and points north might see.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 02:52 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Mike, thats 16 not 17 and its up on the Navy site so we should see it at 11 am advisory.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 02:54 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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That's a secondary low pressure down there near 18.5N and 85.2 W this is what some of the models pick up on in a couple days after the first Low heads NNE. This one here wont get pulled north early on cause it will be on the bottom of the digging trough, moreless trapped near Honduras for the next couple of days. Be interesting though to see if it organizes more after our possible subtropical-tropical storm later this evening starts moving away in a day or 2 allowing this to develop.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 03:11 PM |
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TD 16 almost Nicole
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TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48
HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 03:23 PM |
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Watches and Warnings are Up
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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 05:14 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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After reviewing the floaters it does appear that there may be more than one COC. However, the main one seems to be around 21N 82W moving just east of the Caymans toward Cuba.
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 05:44 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Actually the center is just south of the Isle of Youth (island south of western Cuba. Its fairly easy to see in visible loops its a tad north of the 12z NHC position. 12z GFS is dead on to the current position and is taking it a little more west landfall near Key West and then near Naples and exiting near Daytona. This would bring more rains to east coast Floirda. Will see if other models follow suit today...
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 05:58 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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It's nearly Tropical Storm status, recon should tell us fairly soon if it is. The center is still really "up for grabs" until the recon fix. Either way it doesn't change it all that much, if it's further north and west it just means more rain for more of Florida.
So far Recon reports may be leaning toward the center being closer to the Isle of Youth than the 2PM position.
| WPBSUE |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 06:18 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Just wondering if the location of the coc would make a difference given the varying terrain of cuba. I would think the soon to be "Nicole" would weaken going over the mountains or gain some developement going over fairly flat lands.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 06:37 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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TS NICOLE
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al162010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009281826
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2010, TS, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL162010
AL, 16, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 855W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 847W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 194N, 841W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 198N, 835W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 204N, 832W, 30, 1001, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 829W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 250, 0, 0, 1005, 375, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
This was posted and then deleted, so no Nicole today.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 06:41 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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based on recon and the best track, Nicole is forming in the Western Caribbean. I would not try to base movement on center positions, though, as the center was poorly defined. The overall convection is the best thing to monitor right now.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 06:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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But as the models move the center further west, won't that same convection move further west, as the 12Z GFS is showing?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 06:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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Quote:
But as the models move the center further west, won't that same convection move further west, as the 12Z GFS is showing?
Yes, but don't take this mornings center point (11AM advisory) and this afternoons (2PM) point, along with likely 5PM to indicate direction of movement. These were due mainly to center relocations. Latest being 21.2N, 82.9W from Recon. and the 5PM will.
It may mean some changes in watches/warnings, but still the system is expected to remain at Tropical Storm strength and has to cross over the isle of Youth and Cuba before hand.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 06:55 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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The best track has been altered to read Tropical Depression again, so it may not quite be nicole at 5. Although the rain approaching Central Florida right now is mostly due to the stalled out front and an outside chance that a feeder band that may be attempting to form for the storm.
Report conditions in your area here
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 07:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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The Recon data does not currently support a tropical storm. This depression seems to be trying to organize and there is some shear further to the "centers" north, but I do expect it could make it to Nicole tomorrow morning. I believe it is moving slower than advertised, if not drifting. Definitely seems like a boatload of rain for the Southeast.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 07:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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Despite the model intensity Forecast?
AL96 (Depression 16 Intensity)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 07:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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Quote:
Despite the model intensity Forecast?
AL96 (Depression 16 Intensity)
Most of the intensity models do not take land interaction into account, and aren't worth much until there is a clear center.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 07:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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It's 2010. You'd think the NHC and other government bodies would update their models to better understand land interaction with storms...
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 07:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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From what I can see on the visible floater loop, a broad center of circulation is clearly evident just SW of the Isle of Youth. Colder cloud tops are starting to wrap around this center, as well. Could this be the short burst of strengthening the NHC is forecasting before the actual first landfall in Cuba, and has it reached tropical storm status yet? I guess we'll see at 5, or until the next recon fix.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 08:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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The infrared satellites show some of the colder cloud tops decreasing, while the visible is showing more organization. This system may wind up being more subtropical than anything else.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 10:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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TD16 is indeed more subtropical rather than tropical - and the structure was also subtropical this morning as well. The TD is still quite weak with poor structure - as are most subtropical systems. The TD should cross over western Cuba just to the south of Havana and the terrain in that area is rather flat with mountains further to the west. Since the system is already weak, crossing Cuba is not going to disrupt it too much (if at all). Havana pressure at 5PM and 6PM EDT was down to 1000MB.
Havana, Cuba Weather
With reference to some earlier comments, the DSHP model does consider land interaction, i.e., inland decay. Note the difference between the SHIP and the DSHP in the following:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100928 1800 100929 0600 100929 1800 100930 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 82.9W 22.5N 82.7W 24.3N 81.6W 26.9N 79.7W
BAMD 21.2N 82.9W 23.6N 82.4W 27.0N 81.7W 31.1N 80.9W
BAMM 21.2N 82.9W 22.8N 82.3W 25.3N 81.1W 28.8N 79.2W
LBAR 21.2N 82.9W 23.5N 82.2W 27.2N 81.5W 32.0N 80.3W
SHIP 35KTS...........41KTS..............50KTS..............57KTS
DSHP 35KTS...........33KTS..............44KTS..............44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100930 1800 101001 1800 101002 1800 101003 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.4N 77.6W 35.6N 73.9W 40.3N 68.0W 45.6N 57.1W
BAMD 35.5N 79.6W 45.6N 70.8W 55.2N 54.7W 57.2N 30.6W
BAMM 33.5N 77.0W 42.9N 68.8W 51.5N 52.2W 52.7N 27.4W
LBAR 37.8N 77.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS..............54KTS..........31KTS..........0KTS
DSHP 49KTS..............32KTS..........0KTS
ED
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 10:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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A veritable smorgasbord out there in the Caribbean tonight. More or less it's monsoon trough meet subtropical cyclone meet extra-tropical transition, and yet with none taking a commanding role so far.
Considering the very low pressure for being "just" a depression, interaction with the upper trough and surface front to its north and northwest, character of its winds, precip and more, 16 is possibly more accurately if not best described as a sheared subtropical cyclone (and arguably a sheared marginal subtropical storm, already). The strongest surface winds, consisting of bouts approaching or even just exceeding 39MPH, and almost all of the heavier showers and storms, are much removed from the coc & primarily within the deep, streaming convection to the southeast of the center. Within the cyclone's broad center, which has been sort of hanging out near the Isle of Youth just south of western Cuba, pressures are fairly uniform and relatively low, winds are pretty light, and convection is almost non-existent.
Should the center of 16 tighten up a good bit, then it may be expected to behave more or less like most classic tropical storms. However, given the mess, one should not focus at all on the center of 16, but rather expect a somewhat large but potentially inconsistent area of bad weather of a transitory nature: for a while located here - later shifting a bit more over there - and so on.
And so unless and until 16 really tightens up, for the southeast, Cuba, and nearby offshore islands, the worst concern is likely to be a high risk of the upper trough and front exiting off the CONUS wringing out the very deep tropical moisture associated with 16 - resulting in flooding.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 28 2010 10:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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Actually, it's the Isle of Youth (formerly the Isle of Pines). The Isle of Man is in the Irish Sea between Scotland and Northern Ireland.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 12:40 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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Today's very heavy rainfall in Central Florida was from a stalled out front enhanced by the large broad area of tropical moisture associated with TD#16. In fact, Central Florida received much more rain (so far) than South Florida did today.
The center is still a bit difficult to track as TD#16 is not purely tropical. Pressures are very low in the area however, and it is expected to move nearer to South and Central Florida tomorrow night. Until it gets a persistent center it will probably remain a depression.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 01:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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I have my doubts as far as Tropical Depression 16 becoming Tropical Storm Nicole before moving over Cuba. My thoughts are that it will become a tropical storm early tomorrow but probably not tonight since there is no convection surrounding the center.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 06:27 AM |
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TD16 - Subtropical?
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I'm going to lay this to rest now; TD16 is not a tropical depression though officially it is. Currently there is a 997 millibar surface low near 22.5N 81.7W based on surface and buoy observations coming onshore in the area. There is some convection near the center however stronger convective complex is active near and over Jamaica and points east and southeast where very light shear aloft resides. Hostile winds aloft reside very close to the surface center with 20 knots over the system increasing west and north away from the center. the broader surface circulation at 29/00Z.
If not a tropical depression, what is it? At best it is a subtropical depression and will transition to a extra-tropical low within the next 24 to 36 hours as a shortwave rounds the base of the cutoff upper low aloft over the SE USA. This "non-tropical" low will deepen into an early Nor'Easter for the Mid-Atlantic and New England area and move rapidly up the coast in the next few days and bring strong winds and heavy precip up and along the Eastern Seaboard.
There is the possibility of another tropical or subtropical system forming in the Caribbean later into the week; early next week as surface pressures are low over a broad area.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 12:17 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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The "Center" is still quite a bit of a mess, now relocated over Central Cuba by the NHC, and actuality it may still be south of Cuba. Which just drags this out a bit longer.
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 12:43 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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I'm not a meteorologist (nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night) but am I wrong in thinking that TD16 is being stretched into a huge elongated mess of a storm system stretching from the Yucatan all up the Eastern seaboard? And am I wrong to think the rain in Florida will go on for at least a couple more days? It looks like a huge conveyor belt of Caribbean moisture ahead of the stationary front up into the Eastern US.
I also wonder what will stop the conveyor and return sunshine to the "Sunshine State".
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 12:44 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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New best track puts it at 21.9N 80.9W, or offshore just south of Playa Giron, Cuba. (which is due south of Marathon Key) Still the whole thing resembles more of a trough than a classic tropical system.
| st |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 02:32 PM |
Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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I hope NHC is still paying attention to the area that they had labeled only as 10% just east of the carribean because it is starting to look very impressive.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 02:35 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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Now Recording Radar for Florida until the mess passes:
Flhurricane Long Term Radar Recording of Florida Approach of TD#16
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 02:56 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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TD#16 is now Nicole as of the 11 AM Advisory.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 03:01 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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All Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for Florida have been discontinued as Nicole is forecast to remain East of the State. Rain still will occur along the peninsula.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 04:00 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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Decoded METAR Reports with wind speed in mph. Metar wind speed in knots
Latest hourly minimum pressure or maximum wind speed in bold
ICAO MKJP
Station Name Kingston/Norman
Time 29 / 15:19Z
Temperature 71.6
RH 88
Wind S (170) at 32
Visibility 0.1
Pressure 1008.1
Weather Heavy Rain with Thunderstorm
METAR MKJP 291519Z 17028KT 0100 +TSRA BKN016 BKN020CB OVC070 22/20 Q1008
ICAO MKJS
Station Name Sangster/Monteg
Time 29 / 15:00Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 79
Wind SSW (210) at 16
Visibility > 6.2
Pressure 1003.0
Weather Light Rain with Thunderstorm
METAR MKJS 291500Z 21014KT 9999 -TSRA BKN016 BKN018CB 27/23 Q1003
ICAO MMCP
Station Name Campeche/Ignacio
Time 29 / 14:41Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 70
Wind Calm
Visibility 7.0
Pressure 1004.1
Weather
Remarks 3-Hour Pressure Increasing: 1.2 mb
METAR MMCP 291441Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 SCT040 BKN200 27/21 A2965 RMK SLP042 52012 956 8/602
ICAO MMCZ
Station Name Cozumel (Civ/Mil
Time 29 / 14:40Z
Temperature 78.8
RH 89
Wind NNW (330) at 12
Visibility 7.0
Pressure 1003.7
Weather
Remarks 3-Hour Pressure Increasing: 4.4 mb
METAR MMCZ 291440Z 33010KT 7SM BKN015TCU BKN250 26/24 A2964 RMK SLP045 52044 900 8/208 SC
ICAO MMUN
Station Name Cancun
Time 29 / 14:44Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 89
Wind NNW (340) at 8
Visibility 7.0
Pressure 1003.4
Weather
Remarks 3-Hour Pressure Increasing: 2.0 mb
METAR MMUN 291444Z 34007KT 7SM SCT018TCU SCT250 27/25 A2963 RMK SLP031 52020 967 8/208 -RA OCNL
ICAO MUCF
Station Name Cienfuegos(Civ/M
Time 29 / 15:22Z
Temperature 75.2
RH 89
Wind ESE (120) at 5
Visibility 2.5
Pressure 997.0
Weather Rain
METAR MUCF 291522Z 12004KT 080V160 4000 1500S RA OVC015 24/22 Q0997
ICAO MUCL
Station Name Cayo Largo D Sur
Time 29 / 14:56Z
Temperature 82.4
RH 79
Wind W (260) at 9
Visibility > 6.2
Pressure 997.0
Weather
METAR MUCL 291456Z 26008KT 9999 FEW015 BKN200 28/24 Q0997
ICAO MUCM
Station Name Camaguey/Iganci
Time 29 / 14:51Z
Temperature 77.0
RH 89
Wind SE (140) at 16
Visibility 5.0
Pressure 1003.0
Weather
METAR MUCM 291451Z 14014KT 8000 BKN015 OVC060 25/23 Q1003
ICAO MUCU
Station Name Santiago De Cub
Time 29 / 14:50Z
Temperature 78.8
RH 84
Wind SE (140) at 18
Visibility 3.1
Pressure N/A
Weather
METAR MUCU 291450Z 14016KT 110V170 5000 SCT018 BKN025 OVC060 26/23 Q1 00
ICAO MUGM
Station Name Guantanamo Bay
Time 29 / 15:29Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 84
Wind S (180) at 39, 46 gusts
Visibility 1.2
Pressure 1008.1
Weather Heavy Rain
Remarks Hourly Precipitation Amount: 0.10 inch
METAR MUGM 291529Z 18034G40KT 2000 +RA FEW017 BKN029 OVC037 27/24 A2977 RMK PK WND 16040/1528 (peak wind SSE at 40kts at 1528Z-1128EDT) T2 SET P0010
ICAO MUHA
Station Name Havana/Jose Mar
Time 29 / 14:55Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 84
Wind NW (310) at 10
Visibility 5.6
Pressure 998.0
Weather
METAR MUHA 291455Z 31009KT 9000 SCT020 BKN150 27/24 Q0998
ICAO MUHG
Station Name Holguin (Civ/Mil
Time 29 / 14:51Z
Temperature 78.8
RH 84
Wind SSE (150) at 22, 39 gusts
Visibility > 6.2
Pressure 1004.1
Weather
METAR MUHG 291451Z 15019G34KT 120V180 9999 SCT020 BKN090 26/23 Q1004
ICAO MUMZ
Station Name Manzanillo
Time 29 / 14:54Z
Temperature 73.4
RH 94
Wind Variable at 7
Visibility 5.6
Pressure 1006.1
Weather
METAR MUMZ 291454Z VRB06KT 9000 BKN018 23/22 Q1006
ICAO MUVR
Station Name Varadero
Time 29 / 14:53Z
Temperature 77.0
RH 89
Wind WNW (300) at 7
Visibility 5.0
Pressure 998.0
Weather
METAR MUVR 291453Z 30006KT 270V330 8000 BKN008 25/23 Q0998
ICAO MWCR
Station Name Grnd Cayman/Owen
Time 29 / 15:00Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 94
Wind WSW (250) at 23
Visibility 5.6
Pressure 999.0
Weather Light Rain
METAR MWCR 291500Z 25020KT 200V260 9000 -RA BKN014CB OVC080 27/26 Q0999 NOSIG
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 04:30 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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I can't find the surface center. There is some rotation over the Lower Keys but as of this hour the upper low and long wave trough are now over at least one-half of the overall circulation and what is advertised as the center. Wind Shear analysis confirms 20 knots over the NHC center and 30 knots from the Western tip of Cuba across the lower Keys to Naple FL to Melbourne, FL. At 5 pm this may go down as one of the shortest named systems. I don't doubt there's a broad circulation; however the 11 am advisory did relocate the center along the south coast whereas the 5 am advisory had the center on the north coast and about to emerge over the Florida Straits.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 05:13 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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Keep in mind that Guantanamo Bay is 343NM east southeast of the storm position - not exactly the best justification for a tropical cyclone. Maybe subtropical, but even that would be a stretch.
ED
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 07:05 PM |
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Re: TD16 - Subtropical?
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It looks like most of the rain shield that's along the southeastern coast of Florida will be offshore sometime tonight, and the heaviest of rain remains offshore. Inland will see spotty rain, especially if the frontal zone flares up more, but not torrents of it.
My best guess for a "center" is in the Florida straits halfway between Marathon Key and Cuba. roughly, 23.9N 81.0W that's right now, it probably will move again in two hours.
There is still a lot of energy in the Western Caribbean too, the rainfall in Jamaica and the Caymans may be worse today than it ever was. Also Eastern North Carolina is probably going to get the most rain from this.
| BracGypsy |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 07:47 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Wow what a site this is. BracGypsy here from Cayman Brac. Nice to meet all of you.
The winds have somewhat subsided here on the Brac due to Tropical Storm Nicole.. I received a note from our air-traffic controller earlier today, the note said the winds here on Cayman Brac were about 50.6mph with a little higher in gust. It blew a few signs over and we lost power for a bit over an hour and half. The winds have now subsided to less than half. The rain here was unreal all morning from around 10am' it stopped it's downpour around 2:10 pm, but still a light sprinkle now. The Rain Gauge showed on the 10inch mark. Lot's of rain here, the airport runway is on the flooded side, but they have that all under-control now.
It's nice to meet everyone. Just though I would let you guys know that there is a little 12 mile island 90 miles south of Cuba, called Cayman Brac. Seems the world sometimes forgets about us at times. I'm just here to remind you.
Take care.
Over and out:
BracGypsy
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 08:24 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Glad to have you here BracGypsy. Thanks for the first hand report from the Caymans. Those of us who follow hurricanes know EXACTLY where you are!!
Here in west central Florida, it is a beautiful day. A bit warm and humid with a pretty good batch of cumulus clouds, but no rain in sight yet and no real wind to speak of. I actually wish the storm was on a track more to the west because we need the rain. Looks like much more of an east coast/Bahamas event at this time. The frontal boundary DOES seem to be sagging southward again a little bit (from the north of us here) as it ocillates back and forth across us. Not hearing much about that 'secondary' system at this time....is that out of the models now?
| BracGypsy |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 09:55 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Poster: Lamar-Plant City.{Not hearing much about that 'secondary' system at this time....is that out of the models now?}
Lamar, I haven't been around this site long enough to find my way around yet. I am still learning about all this. But I checked the Secondary system out' it's showing on the Noaa site now, and there's another following that one too. The first one says it's a Tropical wave over the central Atlantic' located about 700 miles from the Windward islands. It also says there's only a 10 present chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The second System says about the same other than it's 850 miles from the Windward islands.
I like to keep up with hurricanes since this little island seems to attract them.
The Brac was hit really bad on November 8th 2008 with a hurricane called Paloma. Some of us are still rebuilding from that one. It was a Cat 4 with Cat 5 in gust. When that monster got through with us, this little island looked as if a A bomb when off on it. About 95% of all homes an buildings here' either lost all their roofs, and walls or parts. About 95% of all electric polls when down. Most of the island was without electric power for over 4 months. We had electric generators running for all that time" plus'. We have here 1500 population. What a mess that hurricane was, So I can't think of anyone here who really cares to see another hurricane. Check online google, "Paloma" hit Image. There's still photos up of the devastation here. We are thankful no one was killed. What was so strange about Paloma' was' after it hit here, not many media news picked it up, and the world around us didn't know about what had happened here. Seems most all news medias didn't get to much news about Paloma hitting here' so what was said was very little. My parents live near Ocala Fl. They didn't hear anything on the news for 5 days. We couldn't call out because cell towers were down and landlines were out also. We are a British Colony and as soon as the winds subsided enough the British War ships were here helping the needy. Three months pry to Paloma we were hit again by a Cat 3 called Gustav. That one was a nasty one too, but not half as nasty as Paloma. It's not a good feeling when you see and feel your home flying apart around you. AND there's nothing you can do but hope you don't fly with it. That's another story that would make this story a lot longer if I took the time to write it. LOL Maybe later.
Thanks for the welcome Lamar. Nice to meet you.
Take care.
BracGypsy!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 10:15 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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HI, BracGypsy! I worked at Cox Lumber in St. Petersburg, FL for six years. Went to Grand Cayman for inventory twice. Nice to have you logged on here.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 10:22 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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I'm not so sure that there isn't some kind of circulation just North of the Brac/Little Cayman this evening. That may just be a passing feature, though in the total area of mess that Nicole has become.
| BracGypsy |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 10:44 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Nice to meet you too MichaelA.
I know Mr. Linton Tibbetts very well, and Mary his Daughter. I just ordered a container full of building materials from Cox in Tampa. The barge just landed it 4 weeks ago here. I see Linton a lot here on the Brac. He spends a lot of time on Little Cayman, he has a home there, and one here too! He's from here on the Brac. Good man.
Your right about that there's some kind of circulation just North of the Brac/Little Cayman this evening. It's been nasty. I was outside at my office when it started gusting high winds and rain really bad, about that time I looked up and the Jet was landing in that mess. I held my breath hoping it wasn't making a mistake in landing then. The runway was partially flooded earlier, but it's Ok now or it wouldn't have landed. All I could hear was the engine screaming to a stop.
I guess now it's time to keep my eyes on the other two nasty systems that's southeast of here. What do you think those two will do?
Nice meeting you.
BracGypsy!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 29 2010 11:49 PM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Too early to tell whether either of those systems in the Atlantic will develop or not. The models haven't locked onto them yet. The one closest to the Caribbean is the one I'd keep an eye on since it is entering the area that is climatologically more conducive for development for this time of year.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Sep 30 2010 12:31 AM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Actually the smaller system southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has a slightly better chance for development - but only slightly. The system closer to the Islands is encountering northwesterly windshear.
ED
| Orion1962 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 30 2010 12:38 AM |
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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Ya know, Michael...any way you slice it, both areas of interest are a long way off from Cont US interests (not discussing Barbados and such) so getting excited yet only wears people down when they DO need to be concerned. Your thoughts?
JW
Hurricane Hunter
MacDill AFB
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 30 2010 12:51 AM |
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Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida
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I saw that shear, but the area is somewhat more active. With cold fronts and their troughs now getting farther south, just about anything forming in the Atlantic is likely to be turned away from CONUS. I was replying in regards to the location of the Cayman Islands. I'm not overly concerned about either Atlantic area right now, but remain watchful never the less.