danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 19 2011 11:56 PM |
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2011 Hurricane Forecast Update from NOAA
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NOAA has updated their forecast numbers for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
..."Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:
12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. .."
NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season
More information here on the reasoning for the increase in possible storms during the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast.
NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Issued: 19 May 2011
(Credit: NOAA)
For the potential area in the Southwestern Caribbean, please see the forecast lounge. The lounge is our area to discuss storms without having to be strict about speculation rules.
{{StormLinks|93L|93|1|2011|1|93L}}
| GlenJohnson |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 20 2011 12:37 AM |
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Re: 2011 Hurricane Forecast Update from NOAA
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Gee, they agree with my forcast. Looks like I might make the top 2 again this year.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri May 20 2011 12:48 AM |
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Re: 2011 Hurricane Forecast Update from NOAA
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Actually, with such a wide range, its not much of a forecast. Last year NOAA took some flack from some folks for putting out such a vague outlook but it looks like they have done it again. When the range of named storms is from 12 to 18 the expectation is anywhere from just slightly above normal at 12 to tying for the fourth highest total of all time at 18 (the 1969 total). Is the NOAA forecast for a slightly above normal season, an active season or a hyperactive season? CSU and TSR put out a specified number, so I think their approach qualifies as a defined forecast.
Until the end of May you can still submit your own guesstimate of a defined forecast in the 2011 Storm Forum .
ED
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 20 2011 05:20 PM |
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Florida Heat and SW North Atlantic trough
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While most of Florida is having warm to moderately hot temperatures, you are not alone.
The hot pink colors in the image below indicate a large portion of SW GA, SE AL, Western Cuba and Mexico, are also experiencing hot temperatures.
Also of note is the large trough just north of Puerto Rico. Beginning to take on a slight cyclonic curvature look. But current forecasts indicate NO Development in this area.
Image time is 1615Z or 1215pm EDT May 20,2011
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon May 23 2011 11:11 PM |
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED TUESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
Emphasis added~danielw System 92L is moving away from the U.S.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat May 28 2011 10:05 PM |
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Area to Watch
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SW Caribbean appears to be flaring up. Area to watch for the weekend.
If development were to occur, the system would probably remain in the Caribbean or Eastern Pacific region due to a ridge of High Pressure over the Gulf of Mexico.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat May 28 2011 11:37 PM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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It looks like it is drifting slowly N to NNE to me. There is a lot of shear present from the NW to the SE in that region too, but little right over the immediate area. At this point, I think it is more of a curiosity than any threat.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun May 29 2011 01:58 AM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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Although this is the area where you would look for pre season development, or early season development. It's only based on models so far. If it were to become an invest area it would be Monday or Tuesday . Either way it's not likely to do anything but bring more rain to Jamaica, but it's something to watch.
Mostly it's still too early.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun May 29 2011 12:41 PM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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The shear has increased over the area from the SW - NE. I don't foresee any development happening here anytime soon.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun May 29 2011 03:02 PM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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I agree. It does not look like much, if any, organization will occur over the next day or two. I have been looking at regional buoys and, while the winds are gusting, the pressure is steady. It looks like this disturbance could have a better chance of some slow development heading toward the middle of the upcoming week.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 30 2011 05:34 AM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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our good friend CMC is waking up... lol http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
seems always the first to go... lol!
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon May 30 2011 10:54 AM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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I put up a lounge message on the potential Southwest Caribbean area (For those looking at a satellite and are not seeing anything, it's purely based on models saying something may be there in a few days.) See the forecast lounge here for more.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 01 2011 01:43 AM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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Looks like things have started early with a nice developing system off the east coast that is now INVEST 93L . It's located in very low shear environment for now but that's not going to last . I hope it's something that will hopefully bring some much needed rain to parts of the SE. We are 16 to 20 inches below normal for the year in Mobile,AL.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 01 2011 02:21 AM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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93L is very weak, most of the rain and satellite visible convection is southwest of the center, and shear won't be kind to it. However, it does have a surface low, and the convection will probably make a rainy day for Florida/Georgia on Thursday.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 01 2011 12:30 PM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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It is very odd that the local forcast discussion makes NO mention of this feature in our weather for today despite the fact that it seems to be bearing in our direction at a considerable pace. Melbourne radar is already showing a solid thunderstorm complex headed in off of the Atlantic yet even their discussion is dismissing models that want to up the rain chance to 60%......I brought my umbrella to work today!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jun 01 2011 03:20 PM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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Rain coming to very dry Central Florida today. We certainly can use it.
We'll see what happens when this system gets into the Gulf later today and tomorrow.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 01 2011 03:35 PM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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Updated.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
904 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE NE FL IS RESULTING IN
A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE TREKS SW DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SARASOTA-POLK
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. ANTICIPATE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTH OF THERE. FORECAST AND GRIDS GENERALLY ON TRACK AT THE
MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE INLAND NORTH/CENTRAL POPS TO 40
AND REARRANGE ZONE GROUPS SOME.
That is one of many update that this system will Probably generate.~danielw
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
.DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE FL COAST HAS EVOLVED INTO A FULL BLOWN
MCS THAT WILL IMPACT THE NRN CWA AROUND MIDDAY. CIRCULATION CENTER
WAS APPROACHING THE 60NM BY MID MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHRAS DVLPG
AHEAD IT. INITIAL SHRAS OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD WILL BE BRIEF AS
THEY ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A 20-30KT NERLY FLOW...BUT WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE STORM PERIPHERY...LIKELY DUE TO PERIPHERAL
SUBSIDENCE.
UPDATED ZONES TO PUSH PRECIP BACK A FEW HRS OVER THE INTERIOR AND TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL ZONES.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 01 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-001
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 02/1700Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. .
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 03/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE Emphasis added~danielw
C. 03/1000Z
D. 28.0N 94.0W
E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 01 2011 03:57 PM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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I see they are finally including it......seemed pretty obvious to me when I went to bed last night that this system was likely to bring weather our way. Sometimes it pays for them to pull their heads out of their models and actually LOOK at what is happening outside. Heavy band of thundershowers right on my doorstep as we speak and most people will be surprised when it arrives based on what they heard going out the door this morning. Poor job of forcasting locally.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 01 2011 08:55 PM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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Most of the convection is off shore north of Tampa right now....time to see if it can develop in the GOM a little bit and bring some rain to the northern Gulf Coast. We had a nice hard/windy rain here right about 12:30pm, but little after that.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jun 01 2011 09:34 PM |
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Re: Area to Watch
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Quote:
Most of the convection is off shore north of Tampa right now....time to see if it can develop in the GOM a little bit and bring some rain to the northern Gulf Coast. We had a nice hard/windy rain here right about 12:30pm, but little after that.
I got about 1/3 inch in the first round around 1:00 PM here in mid-Pinellas County. I've had a few periods of light to moderate rain since, giving me another 1/4 inch. Ground is still very dry, though. Bah! The WV loop shows dry air coming in behind this little system, so there won't be much chance of more rain coming in the next few days.