danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 04 2011 12:18 PM |
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Watching the Gulf
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Update - July 9th, 6:30PM EDT
Flhurricane has moved to a new server setup with Hostdime.com, and includes the beginnings of a new layout. The new server setup will enable some of the new features planned for the site. There has been a minor site redesign in the process, but more is coming.
Currently there is nothing active in the Atlantic basin.
Update - July 7th, 11PM EDT
The system in the Gulf (96L) looks more disorganized tonight but still has a 40% chance for development over the next two days. If it does, it will likely be subtropical in nature and not very strong.
Either way it will bring plenty of rain to Florida, and will likely cause the final shuttle launch to be delayed.
Those along the gulf coast will want to continue to monitor this system.
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
{{StormLinks|96L|96|2|2011|1|96L}}
Update - July 7th, Noon
A tropical wave has moved through the Florida Straits into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and a weak low, probably subtropical in nature, has formed at the surface. The system has been designated as Invest 96L and some additional development is possible for the next day or two as the system moves toward the northeast Gulf coast. See the Storm Forum for additional information.
ED
Original Post - July 4th, 8:18AM
Watching two main areas this morning, and two other areas.
1) Just off of the Southern Jamaican Coast a large convective complex has formed. Early images indicate little or no shear in the area.
2) Area near the Turks and Caicos islands. Not a lot to be seen there.
3) Large amplitude tropical wave moving through the Lower Bahamas and Florida Straits.
4) ULLs located just North of the Yucatan Peninsula and about 300 miles east of Jacksonville,FL
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Jul 04 2011 12:37 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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Well, that certainly draws my attention to the area near Jamaica quite nicely. I haven't checked, but have the models grabbed onto it yet? (off to look at the model runs)
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jul 04 2011 01:55 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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and what is a 'ULL"?
thanks!
Oops. A ULL is an Upper Level Low. Area in the mid to upper levels that rotates counterclockwise.
Not normally conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
See the ghost looking swirls in the water vapor, WV, image above.
ULL located near the Yucatan Peninsula and another about 300 miles due east of Jacksonville,FL.
Specific areas of ULLs can and do allow cyclones to form. And can assist the cyclone in developing.
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danielw
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| Mon Jul 04 2011 01:56 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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I honestly haven't checked the models yet. As they have been on the 'no formation' side since ARLENE. The Canadian was indicating a tropical depression type system moving along the Peninsula. One run was in the GOM and the next run was along the FL East Coast.
Latest visible of the region. 3 hours elapsed since the water vapor image above.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 04 2011 02:22 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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Quick check of the GFS and Canadian models.
GFS and Canadian take the thunderstorms currently in the Jamaica area toward the Yucatan Peninsula and the BOC. Little or no development noted... at this time.
Area near the Turks and Caicos Islands. The Canadian model develops this slowly over the next 90 hours,( from 8 PM EDT last night), slowly spins it up just off of the Florida EAST Coast and takes it up the Atlantic Coast toward Cape Cod,MA.
The Canadian has been consistent with this low level system for about 4 days now. Canadian has been known to create false systems in the past.
These comments are based off of model runs, a probably should be in the Forecast Lounge. But they tie in with the above satellite photos.
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 05 2011 05:32 AM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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The area of convection off Jamacia has pretty well died down tonight, but the area off the Turks and Caicos is firing up in convection. The ULL in the GoM is heading for the northern Gulf Coast, and the only other thing I see interesting out in the Atlantic is an imminent collision between two ULLs.
| MichaelA |
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| Tue Jul 05 2011 02:14 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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Convection flare up near Turks/Caicos area this AM. Looks like light shear over the area, too. GFS shows the wave, but doesn't develop it. CMC and NGP both seem to want to develop something along the Eastern Seaboard in a few days. Whether that would be tropical or mid-lat is anyone's guess, though.
Edit: Convection has decreased a bit in the latest vis pics.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2011 02:31 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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Quite a bit of convection is being generated on the eastern side of the upper-level low in the GOM. Do you guys think this feature has a chance at some development? The models hinted at it there for a while, but not so much now. If the shear was lower, I think it would have a low chance at development, but right now, the shear is too strong. The NWS in Ft. Worth also discussed the possibility of this upper-level low spinning up a few days ago.
| tcatron565 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 06 2011 11:34 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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Definitely keeping an eye on south western Florida/Cuba. Also the Virgin Islands area has caught my eye.
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danielw
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| Thu Jul 07 2011 01:56 PM |
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NHC sending RECON
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Apparently NHC is looking for some development with the Tropical Wave moving into the SE GOM.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU 07 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-037
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 08/1530Z
D. 28.2N 85.0W
E. 08/1630Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 09/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 09/0430Z
D. 29.4N 84.8W
E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
| MichaelA |
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| Thu Jul 07 2011 02:17 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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It looks like there may be some low or mid-level cyclonic turning, but the shear is pretty limiting this morning. The models aren't showing much interest in developing this in the Gulf, but a couple seem to indicate something developing near the outer banks in the long term. Worth the watching and for the potential rain over much of the FL peninsula (much needed). Hopefully SE Georgia will get some significant rain, too.
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danielw
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| Thu Jul 07 2011 02:54 PM |
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SE GOM
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At the least there should be some beneficial rainfall from the system.
The whole Peninsula could used a good soaking.
For that matter the whole SE US could use a good soaking.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2011 03:17 PM |
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Re: SE GOM
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The visible loop of the area in the SE GOM appears to be spinning up from the surface.
While the circular cumulus clouds indicate a mid level circulation the loop shows a small vortice near the surface.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 07 2011 03:27 PM |
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Re: SE GOM
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I was just about to comment that a vortex may be near 25N/85/W as there is low level cyclonic movement in the rain pattern, and the upper level water vapor is showing a suspicious signature, even on the east side of the ULL center. This set up is not conducive for development or much intensification due to upper level shear from the ULL. The NHC has been tracking a surface trough (wave), but my thought was the distrubed weather on the east side of the ULL was diffluent flow between the ULL and the higher pressure to its east. Certainly a weak low level circulation will enhance instability and increase rain chances across the peninsula for which we all will be grateful, however.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2011 03:36 PM |
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Re: SE GOM
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If the vortex you mentioned near 25N/85W is the LLC, wouldn't that indicate a more westward track for 96L than what the recent model runs indicate? http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=96&a=2
BTW, it appears that it is battling dry air to its west (near the TUTT).
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 07 2011 04:47 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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There looks to be a weak surface low near 25.5N 85.1W. But the pressure doesn't seem to be all that low right now. The shear will likely stay for a bit, so it'll be a nasty weekend around a good chunk of Florida. And brings shuttle launch chances down quite a bit.
It may be around 48 hours, that said I doubt it develops.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2011 07:44 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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Station PLSF1 - Pulaski Shoal Light, FL
3:00 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 28 kts
2:50 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 32 kts
2:40 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 31 kts
2:30 pm SW ( 223 deg ) 13 kts
2:20 pm SW ( 236 deg ) 11 kts
2:10 pm SW ( 236 deg ) 12 kts
2:42 pm SSW ( 210 deg ) 38 kts
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2011 08:28 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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First significant rain from this feature just hitting my position now and it is a rapidly developing heavy line of showers. There appears to be a nw-se dividing line right down the middle of the state with the heavier rain to the east and thus progressing westward. It could be hitting some sea-breeze interaction but really shows how much moisture and instability are over us right now in this deep moist eastward flow around the top of the ULL. Our rain the past week has been heavy in some places and very light in others so someone needs this - I do!!
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 08 2011 02:30 PM |
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Re: Areas to Watch
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On Wednesday and Thursday here in S FL we got soaked and I noticed the rain was spinning up from the Keys entering from the SE and moving NW across the state exiting around Tampa. A SE flow is normal for this time of year but there was clearly something more to it. Its all but dried up today but we really need the rain judging by the lake behind my house.