MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 10:23 AM |
Hurricane Warnings and Watches Now Up from North Carolina to New Jersey
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7PM EDT Update
Hurricane Irene has much better satellite presentation this evening than it did earlier today, and now has a "pinhole" eye. The official forecast track has moved slightly west and now makes landfall near Atlantic Beach, NC. Saturday Afternoon. After this it exits near Virginia Beach, skims Delaware, and then makes another landfall near Wildwood, NJ. Sunday Afternoon, then over New York CIty, NY and up through CT. MA, NH, and ME. The rough side of the storm is forecast to be in Boston.
The wind field of Irene is very large and strong Tropical Storm force winds will be felt on either side of the system quite a ways out, and hurricane force closer to the center. Large amount of storm surge along the coast as the size of Irene will move large amounts of water.
Those in areas affected need to prepare and listen to local media and official.
Hurricane Warnings up for:
Little River Inlet, SC (AT the SC/NC Border) to The NC/VA Border
Hurricane Watches north of there into Sandy Brook, NJ
Tropical Storm Warnings south to Edisto Beach
Tropical Storm Watches up for the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac
5PM EDT Update
Hurricane Warnings up for North Carolina. Hurricane Watches up to Sandy Hook, NJ. Tropical Storm Warning for most of South Carolina.
Those in the Watch and warnings areas need to prepare for dangerous conditions and possibly days without power in some areas. Please listen to local media and officials for information about your local area.
Original Update
Hurricane Watches are now up from Surf City, NC along the outer banks to the North Carolina/Virginia border. This means hurricane conditions are expected in the area by 48 hours.
Those in the outer banks should consider evacuating today if you haven't already, this system will be over or much closer to the coast and larger than Hurricane Earl that passed by to the east last year. Earl is expected to be a major hurricane at Landfall. Please heed all evacuation orders, Irene's models have been trending back into North Carolina rather than away since noon of yesterday. Listen to local media and officials in the watch/warning areas.
Conditions will likely slowly deteriorate tomorrow night into Saturday, with landfall probably midday Saturday in the Outer Banks.
Tropical Storm watches are up south of Surf City into Edisto Beach in South Carlina (Between Hilton Head and Charleston, SC).
For Florida, some extreme outer rainbands from Irene will begin approaching South Florida later this morning, and may spread north later in the day. This can be seen on south Florida Radar
Once Irene has passed the Outer Banks, Irene is expected to stay just offshore near the Delmarva peninsula and into western Long Island , NY, Sunday afternoon still as a hurricane. Guidance trends suggest this is fairly likely latest trends have it possible for the track to be slightly west of the current one as well, which would cause the core of Irene to move along the Delmarva, into New Jersey and ride the coast into New Hampshire and Maine, a large portion of New England north of New York and Rhode Island may be affected by a weaker (but still destructive) Irene.
Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the Far Eastern Atlantic, is expected to remain far out to sea without affecting any land areas. It is likely it will become a Tropical Storm.
Irene went through an eyewall replacement process last night that has temporarily weakened the storm wind wise, when the eye reemerges it is likely to be larger than previously seen and regain its strength to be a major hurricane as it crosses or clips the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The wind gradient is flatter right now,so the drop in windspeed is valid. The pressure is the lowest it has ever been in Irene, at 950mb, so when it recovers from the eyewall replacement cycle winds will likely pick up again drastically. After 2 days though vertical shear should halt any more strengthening of Irene.
What's happening weather wise or people wise regarding Irene in your area? Let us know here.
See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.
Event Links
Flhurricane Disaster and preparatory information thread.
{{BahamasMedia}}
Landfall Area Media:
WECT 6TV - Wilmington, NC
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
Papers:
Outer Banks Sentinel
Wilmington Star News Online
Hampton Roads Pilot
Power Outage Maps
Eastern Carolinas Power outage Map
Virginia Power outage Map
Maryland/DC Power Outage Map
Keep up with where Mark Sudduth (Hurricanetrack.com) is as he drives around the Outer Banks of North Carolina
{{CHC}}
Irene Storm Surge Probabilities
We are now recording the Rocky Bay webcam at Abaco Island in the Bahamas -- note these images are large.
Hope Town Fire rescue on Abaco Island, storm information
Updated Map of Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com, with video and radar for Irene approach See HurricaneTrack.com for more information.
RGB satellite recording of Irene.
Long Term Long Range US Radar of Irene
Map plot of Irene overlaid on Hurricane Floyd (1999) track
{{StormCarib}}
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{MidAtlanticRadar}}
{{StormLinks|Irene|09|9|2011|2|Irene}}
{{StormLinks|TD10|10|10|2011|1|TD#10}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|11|2011|0|98L}}
Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 10:31 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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We also have Tropical Depression 10 in the mid Atlantic. It's heading north and should do nothing but spin fish.
Recon
6:30am update: Vortex recon about an hour ago found the eye to be 30nm in diameter, but the max winds out at a band around 45nm diameter. Looks like the ERC mentioned at 11pm is wrapping up and it's now trying to clear out the old core. Central pressure has been steady around 950mb for the last several hours, with an HDOB message within the last few minutes still at that level.
6:50am update: HDOB messages from AF300 found the strongest winds around 35 miles from the center at 112kt. This supports surface winds up to 115mph, matching the 5am advisory. Miss Piggy will be sampling that same region in the next half hour or so.
7:00am update:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 10:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 19
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 10:24:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°08'N 76°18'W (25.1333N 76.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 65 miles (105 km) to the E (86°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,687m (8,816ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SSW (210°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 290° at 58kts (From the WNW at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the SSW (208°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.11 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:32:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:32:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYE WALL WELL DEFINED 020-090
Every IR satellite update the storm is looking healthier right now. Eye is starting to become visible on the last image and is clearing out nicely. It is open south (rotated some from the southwest noted in the vortext recon), but I would expect that to fill quickly. The storm looks very healthy and very large. There is nothing to stop it strengthening over the next few hours.
Track
Majority of the models have shifted far enough west to make the hit in North Carolina rather than Long Island in around 72 hours. There is some divergence following landfall, with some models having the storm re-exit land in North Carolina, while other models drag the storm inland after landfall. This is still far enough off that models will continue to shift, and the storm could move east or west of it's current official track. Given it's track nearly parallel to land, a small shift can result in a huge difference in where landfall occurs, anywhere from South Carolina through Canada.
Land effects on hurricanes tend to drag them to the right when impacting directly due to the spin of the storm and the land-based drag due to the terrain. However, if a storm grazes land on it's left side, as this storm will do, I am not sure if this will cause a faster or slower landfall. The models do not take into account this effect.
The models showing the more inland track are the GFDL and kin, including the GFDT, GFDI, and GFTI. The GFNI and GFDN also make an inland jog, but not so much. Given the accuracy of the GFDL and kin models with past storms, I would not ignore the potential of these tracks. See: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtim..._track_late.png
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 11:23 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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With a 950mb storm and an ERC completing I would think that the winds speeds would increase to 125 mph or better in the next 6 hours.
950mb gives a Max Possible windspeed of 125mph.
Storms can and do exceed the Mpw.
But it's a rare event.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 11:25 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Based on recon, Irene is starting to move north north northwest this morning and picking up a little speed, it'll be racing along by the time it gets to New England.
Right now it's basically over Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 11:44 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Concentric eyewalls again.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 11:31Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 11:11Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°18'N 76°30'W (25.3N 76.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 55 miles (88 km) to the ENE (73°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 172° at 116kts (From the S at ~ 133.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,450m (8,038ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,442m (8,012ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the east quadrant at 10:53Z
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 12:15 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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For those of you living along the East Coast. Here is a direct link to Irene's Storm Surge Graphics.
Please check it daily... or more.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 12:46 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Irene's windfield is expanding, it may not be as strong in the center as a typical smaller storm, but the strong winds will cover a much wider area. Based on the GFDL in North Carolina hurricane force winds may be felt quite a ways inland away from the center near the coast, especially if the track drifts any westward. Right now Irene is about the level of Ike was at landfall in 2008, but larger area wise.
Unfortunately, at this point odds favor that it will be a history making storm from about North Carolina northeastward through new England. Please take evacuations seriously, and heed local media officials. Most of the Northeast along the coast is likely to be without power for a while after it passes.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 01:53 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Outermost Rainbands are affecting West Palm Beach and Jupiter right now, and will probably crawl up the coast during the day, but what they have now should be about the worst of it.
The concentric eyewalls are doing some interesting things on recon observations, pressure is holding around 950-952 mb though. The wind field expansion may temporarily weaken Irene (max windspeed wise).
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 02:15 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Quote:
For those of you living along the East Coast. Here is a direct link to Irene's Storm Surge Graphics.
Please check it daily... or more.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm
If I read that correctly, Volusia County has something like a 10-20% chance of seeing a storm surge over 2 feet.
Why so little?!
With a CAT4 hurricane only 150-200 miles out should we not get a much bigger surge?
Thanks
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 02:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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That's the base level water rise, it doesn't include wave heights.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 02:34 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Looks like Spanish Wells, Bahamas took a direct hit between 6 and 7 this AM, yet its wind report doesn't reflect it... I guess the equipment has malfunctioned. Great Abaco is now in the eyewall. Beyond that is nothing but open water for Irene until she scraps the outer banks of NC late Saturday night.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 03:00 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Quote:
That's the base level water rise, it doesn't include wave heights.
Thanks! Can you point me to a site which would predict how much storm surge + wave height Volusia can expect?
Thanks a lot
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 03:06 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Quote:Quote:
That's the base level water rise, it doesn't include wave heights.
Thanks! Can you point me to a site which would predict how much storm surge + wave height Volusia can expect?
Thanks a lot
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/mlbMarineDay.php
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 03:15 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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HPC Extended discussion From here
Quote:
...MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS
THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE
COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH
MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK
WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE
POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE
NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS
WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
In short very disruptive to power and infrastructure in the Northeast is being projected officially. In addition the very large size of Irene greatly increases the storm surge risk along the coast of New England. (Perhaps 2 categories more that the storm is at landfall if you look at older slosh maps before the surge was separated from the Saffir Simpson scale)
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 03:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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I dunno i read it says "THIS POTENTIALLY" not them predicting it will.Just saying.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 04:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Appears that Irene's eye is going to cross Abaco Island fairly soon.
| sailor |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 04:37 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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In addition the very large size of Irene greatly increases the storm surge risk along the coast of New England. (Perhaps 2 categories more that the storm is at landfall if you look at older SLOSH maps before the surge was separated from the Saffir Simpson scale)
Mike I am in Buzzards Bay MA and expecting the surge. Where could I find the "old SLOSH maps" on line?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 04:39 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Quote:
In addition the very large size of Irene greatly increases the storm surge risk along the coast of New England. (Perhaps 2 categories more that the storm is at landfall if you look at older SLOSH maps before the surge was separated from the Saffir Simpson scale)
Mike I am in Buzzards Bay MA and expecting the surge. Where could I find the "old SLOSH maps" on line?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml Is probably the best place.
For current surge probabilities the link is Storm Surge Probabilities for Irene
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 07:16 PM |
| Attachment |
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Gloria
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Is anyone else reminded of the 1985 Hurricane Gloria (struck NC, grazed Delmarva, struck Long Island and CT)? Gloria didn't come quite so close to FL. I actually rode Gloria out at sea in a nuclear submarine (our boat was based out of New London, CT). We could feel her waves 300 feet below the ocean surface. Lost power at our house for several days.
| Mike V |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 08:58 PM |
Re: Gloria
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Quote:
Is anyone else reminded of the 1985 Hurricane Gloria (struck NC, grazed Delmarva, struck Long Island and CT)? Gloria didn't come quite so close to FL. I actually rode Gloria out at sea in a nuclear submarine (our boat was based out of New London, CT). We could feel her waves 300 feet below the ocean surface. Lost power at our house for several days.
Wow, I did not think a sub would be affected at that depth!
Mike V
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 09:05 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Chesapeake Bay tides:
I want to discuss the affect on the Chesapeake Bay. As a longtime resident with 40 miles of Northeast exposure, tides can make or break a storm. During Isabel, water was halfway to the house, but we got no waves. With Ivan, Francis, and Jeanne remnants, the water didn't rise, but the waves did damage to the bulkhead.
The Chesapeake Bay is very heavily affected by wind directions. The following general assumptions can be made:
1. If the storm tracks east of the bay, as the GFS and most global models are showing, the western quadrant of the hurricane will blow water out of the Bay. The dominant wind directions will be Northeast, North, and Northwest, meaning that areas with Northeast exposure are most vulnerable due to the earlier impact of winds from that region of the storm, but as the storm continues, lower and lower tidal levels will cause the waves to have less and less impact. This is in many ways the best case scenario.
2. If the storm tracks west of the bay, as the GFDL is showing, then the eastern quadrant of the hurricane will blow water into the Bay, causing storm surge effects unrelated to the pressure of the storm. The dominant wind directions will be Southeast, South, and Southwest. Significant erosion will occur for any locations with East, South, or West exposure. Individuals with Northeast through Northwest exposure will be relatively safe from wave action, but may still experience significant flooding.
3. If the storm begins over the west of the bay, but transitions to the east of the bay, then all bets are off: we will get wind driven storm surge plus potential erosion on all regions of the storm.
Now remember I am talking about just wind driven surge effects and not pressure driven storm effects. Pressure effects may increase tidal height relative to just the wind driven scenario. The closer the storm passes to the mouth of the bay, the more affect on the bay the pressure will have. If the eye of the storm is inland, then the lowest pressure will be unable to drag as much water up the bay with it.
Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System - tide heights and wind speeds: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/cbofs/cbofs.html
Also note that a number of NOAA websites are hosted in the DC Metro area due to NOAA being headquartered in Bethesda, MD. With power outages, some NOAA websites might go down. Based on traceroutes, this looks to include the National Hurricane Center, the Satellite Services Division site (www.ssd.noaa.gov), and Weather.gov (including the radar websites). There may be backup locations for these servers.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 09:54 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Our beauty today:
Large (1km resolution):
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Irene.A2011237.1550.1km.jpg
Larger (500m resolution):
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Irene.A2011237.1550.500m.jpg
Largest (250m resolution):
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Irene.A2011237.1550.250m.jpg
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 09:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for the Outer Banks as Irene Heads Through the Bahamas
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Its funny you mention this because I was just looking for a interesting article in the Baltimore Sun talking about how a major Hurricane landing in the Carolinas but particularly even a Cat 2 (i.e. Isabel) at the right angle crossing the bay could do significant damage.
Edit- Found article. Baltimore Sun Baltimore Sun Md Surge Article
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 10:05 PM |
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Re: Gloria
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So is the thinking that front coming off the east coast right now will not be strong enough to nudge Irene back east? This front seems to be breaking up slightly (on the southern end), but it is still a pretty good sized one. It still appears (to me) that she'll miss (landfall) on the outer banks of NC.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 10:27 PM |
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Re: Gloria
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Last half hour has seen a marked improvement in satellite presentation, with a well defined, nearly clear eye appearing on both IR and Water Vapor imagery. Deeper convection is also firing around nearly the entire eyewall structure.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2011 11:47 PM |
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Re: Gloria
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According to recon Pressure is down to 947, amazingly the eye is fairly solid (small break in the south) so it has another chance at strengthening tonight. There are a few factors that are negative for that, so it may hold, but the pressure dropping again is not a good sign for it getting weaker.
Recon fixes and satellite show the north northwest movement continuing
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 02:13 AM |
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Re: Gloria
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Irene is shedding outer convection on the NW, W, SW, and S sections of the storm. Outer convection is decreasing on the N, NE, E, and SE sections of the storm.
Inner core is intensifying and eye is becoming much clearer. Near bands to the core are wrapping tightly to the core and a trouh appears to be forming fully encircling the central storm where there still is outer convection.
It is beginning to take on an annular appearance to me. Anyone else see it? It's not there yet, but in another 1-2 hours it could be.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html
Note the change over time:
1945Z:
2215Z:
0015Z:
0115Z:
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 02:32 AM |
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Re: Gloria
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HDOB extrapolated surface pressure just north of the calm FL winds was 937mb!
That's a huge drop in the past few hours, as dropsondes were showing 950mb only about 3-4 hours ago.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 02:38 AM |
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Re: Gloria
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Quote:
HDOB extrapolated surface pressure just north of the calm FL winds was 937mb!
That's a huge drop in the past few hours, as dropsondes were showing 950mb only about 3-4 hours ago.
The wind really isn't going up with it right now, but it is going out (expanding) and probably building a huge amount of storm surge up to pile on wherever it makes land fall. Areas at and just to the right of the landfall point will probably see the worst of it. The other option is the wind lags behind pressure and speeds up later, both options are possible.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 02:43 AM |
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Re: Gloria
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Yep. Dropsonde measured 942mb surface pressure where HDOB was showing 942mb also, just south of the really low 937mb. My guess is the storm isn't perfectly vertically stacked, and the FL center is 5 miles south of the surface center. The eye is larger than that difference.
Winds are still barely Category 3, yet pressure is easily strong enough for a mid Category 4. So the wind field must be expanding rather than increasing in velocity, as Mike said.
Official vortex recon, using the dropsonde surface pressure:
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 02:16Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 23
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Observation Number: 36
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 1:58Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°49'N 77°21'W (27.8167N 77.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 184 miles (295 km) to the ENE (65°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (31°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 128° at 99kts (From the SE at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 942mb (27.82 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,445m (8,022ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,440m (8,005ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 111kts (~ 127.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:25Z
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 03:00 AM |
|
Re: Gloria
|
NHC has north at 350dg... I think its more like 360-5 dg... I see her at 28.3N and 77.2W moving almost due north. Over past 4hrs its gone actually .5 N and .1 East
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2011 03:09 AM |
|
Re: Gloria
|
11PM official forecast is pretty much the same, although it keeps Irene at hurricane Status even into central Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire.