MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 07:49 AM |
Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Hurricane Irene has made first landfall in the United States at Cape Lookout, NC as a 85mph hurricane. Winds to the west of the storm are relatively light but the storm surge has been fairly high so far. The eastern side is where the higher gusts have been reported.
It is moving north northeast, the outer banks will receive the eastern side of the storm.
What's happening weather wise or people wise regarding Irene in your area? Let us know here.
See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.
Event Links
Flhurricane Disaster and preparatory information thread.
Landfall Area Media:
WECT 6TV - Wilmington, NC
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
Webcams: (south to north)
Live Myrtle Beach Cam
Myrtle Beach Earthcam
Bar Harbor Myrtle Beach Live Cam
Crown Reef Myrtle Beach Live Cam
North Myrtle Beach Controllable Cam (Flhurricane Recording of this camera
Holden Beach, NC Cam (flhurricane recording)
Oriental, NC Harbor Cam -- flhurricane recording
HurricaneTrack.com Tower Cam 1 (Hatteras) -- Flhurricane recording
Dare County Em Management
Papers:
Outer Banks Sentinel
Wilmington Star News Online
Hampton Roads Pilot
Power Outage Maps (roughly south to north)
Eastern Carolinas Power outage map
Virginia Power outage map
DelMarva Power outage map
Novec/Northern Virginia Power outage map
Portions Maryland/DC power outage Map
Baltimore area Power outage map
Southern Maryland Power outage map
Southeastern Pennsylvania Outage Map
Atlantic City (Southern New Jersey) Power outage map
Jersey Central Power outage map
Northern New Jersey PSEG outage map
New York City/ConEd Power outage map
Long Island Power outage map
Connecticut Power outage map
Rhode Island/Mass Power outage map
New Hampshire Power outage map
Audio streams of Various police/EM scanners
Keep up with where Mark Sudduth (Hurricanetrack.com) is as he drives around the Outer Banks of North Carolina
Chasercam live
CrazyMother Severe Weather Live Feed (Lot's of Nature Here)
{{CHC}}
Irene Storm Surge Probabilities
Hope Town Fire rescue on Abaco Island, storm information
Updated Map of Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com, with video and radar for Irene approach See HurricaneTrack.com for more information.
RGB satellite recording of Irene.
Long Term Long Range US Radar of Irene
Level 3 Radar recording of Irene's NC approach (HCW)
Map plot of Irene overlaid on Hurricane Floyd (1999) as well as other notable New England storms
{{StormCarib}}
{{MidAtlanticRadar}}
{{NERadar}}
{{StormLinks|Irene|09|9|2011|2|Irene}}
{{StormLinks|91L|91|11|2011|0|91L}}
{{StormLinks|92L|92|12|2011|3|92L}}
Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 08:39 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Cedar Island, NC is reporting 115mph wind gusts, the northeast side of the center of Irene seems to be where all the highest wind is at, and Ocracoke and that section of the outer banks seems to be getting it. Points west drastically less wind ,but surge is been driven up fairly high from the east there 6-8 feet.
Recon found pressure of 951, this is still a very powerful hurricane, but not in the classic high speed wind sense.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 10:04 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
I'm looking at the area of North Carolina that the hurricane is crossing: it is all flat, swampy, with lots of lakes. It won't weaken the storm much.
Storm's appearance is actually improving on IR and WV following landfall. Morehead radar is still showing a badly disrupted eye, and the land interaction won't help it, but there are signs it is trying to fill in the southern and eastern circulation.
Condition report: Winds about 10-15mph here near Annapolis, MD. Still a long way from the storm, the eye being around 270 miles south of me. The closest rain line should start hitting me in the next ten minutes or so.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 10:08 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
The storm is doing that on it's own.The 85mph is high as it is more like 75 -80 and more and more dry air going in.The northeast is very lucky as a few days ago they were talking about on here of infastructure and stuff being damaged but all in all flooding rain and serge will be the main thing not the wind
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 10:26 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Well... Within the last night they changed it from being a TS when it hits here, to a Cat 1. I'm expecting when it hits to get the strong winds (at least that is the side of the line we are on, and so because were on the west side of her when she hits, they're saying were going to get strong winds of hurricane force)
Last night I think everyone started taking it seriously when the Governor declared a state of emergency for NH. I grabbed some essentials from Wal-Mart, but they are out of them today as well as water. Good to see that people are stocking up on supplies around here and preparing to take her seriously... but sad to see some people still think it is a big joke.
She seems to be a smart storm, staying closer to the water than going inland. I have to agree with what Random Choas has said about the badly disrupted eye and the appearance of her on radar. She is still very powerful even though she is a Cat 1 and very large. I'm curious to see what she will do later tonight.
On a side note -- I'll be around to post as much as I can but if the power goes out, or I'm called to assist (Since I have disaster training for these sorts of things, and am trained as a first responder) than I will not be around much -- I have my phone, so will try to report conditions as she hits in NH from my phone.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 11:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Looking at Morehead radar, looks like the eyewall has almost completely regenerated with only a small gap on the ENE side. The eye is very much rain filled and quite ragged, but it does exist. The storm has definitely recovered from the dry air ingestion that occurred overnight. It's still hours from reentering oceanic water, and the eye may not hold together until then. If it does hold together, expect a small amount of restrengthening off the coast before it starts impacting the Delmarva.
Conditions 1140: outside Annapolis, MD: 15-25mph winds; sporadic light rain.
My anemometer is reporting low by about 5-10mph...had to use a hand gauge.
And just in case anyone is wondering about my sanity, my command center.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 12:50 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Even slightly inland (over swampy area anyway) Irene seems to be holding where it is, recon actually found pressure of 947 mb (lower than earlier). So Irene is a very non-typical storm. I'm sure it will be analyzed a lot over the next few months.
It moved nearly due north after landfall, but now appears to be moving more north northeast. Strangely also, the east side has dried out and most of the convection has swung over to the west side (At landfall it most mostly north and east), which is not good for points north. Rain bands already extend into New York, while the center still remains in the sounds of North Carolina.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 01:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
At landfall, there was no eyewall nor eye. The entire core was disrupted.
Look at this radar image from 10 minutes ago. Eyewall well established. Rain free eye.
This all happened after landfall! Wow.
Note: I turned off county borders. If you look at actual land locations, the eye is actually over an inlet, centered on this map just east of between Lowland in the south and Germantown in the north. Both the north and south eyewall are over land. The storm just exited from being overland on the Lowland side and is heading toward Lake Mattamuskeet.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 01:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Both WV and Radar are showing what appears to be some dry air being ingested on the eastern side of storm, just outside the eyewall. It can be seen in this regional shot showing the total area of affect of Irene:
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 01:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Bad Information Warning:
I have seen local news websites linking to a SLOSH simulation of worst case scenario storm surges on the Chesapeake Bay based on a hurricane coming strait up the Bay. This study was done after Isabel and is not anything like what you will see with Irene on the Chesapeake Bay. Repeat, this is not what will happen with Irene.
The track of Irene is too far east and the track of Irene has already taken it over land, reducing the surge "drag" that accumulates over time. Irene will have major storm surges along the Atlantic coast including Norfolk, very southern Chesapeake Bay, much of the Delaware Bay, northern New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island. It will not have a major storm surge on the majority of the Chesapeake bay, and in fact the latest models I am watching show a negative surge in the northern bay due to winds pushing water south.
Please refer to the surge probability diagrams produced by the NHC:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm
You can also use the NWS coastal Operational Forecast System models that include tide simulations:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html
| OuraganTornade |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 02:35 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Hi everyone , new to the forums but been a lurker for quite some time.
I finally registered because for the first time it looks like a storm is coming right at us in Montreal so I would like your opinion on what I should be expecting in my area.
thanks and stay safe
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 02:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Ouragan:
The biggest threat from a storm that has moved well inland is in the form of tornadoes. The large amount of spin in a storm can generate a large number of tornadoes. The second big threat from a storm is the rainfall. It looks like the storm will pass your area relatively quickly, but be prepared for quite a few inches of rain with the possibility of flash flooding.
Wind will be less of an issue at your distance from the Atlantic coast. The storm will still pack quite a lot, but most of it will not be reaching the ground. Most likely you'll get your strongest winds within embedded thunderstorms rather than from the cyclone itself.
The centerline track is well east of Montreal, so you will be on the western side of the storm. You may be far enough out to not experience a lot depending on track, but I'd keep alert to your weather services and for any warnings of significant weather (I don't know what services Canada provides - maybe someone else can fill this in).
This is the nearest US weather radar to your location:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=cxx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 03:01 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Hurricanetrack guys steam at Roanoke sound on the east side where the water has been blown out (ie mud) http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ (map of their current location)
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 03:22 PM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Quote:
Ouragan:
The biggest threat from a storm that has moved well inland is in the form of tornadoes. The large amount of spin in a storm can generate a large number of tornadoes. The second big threat from a storm is the rainfall. It looks like the storm will pass your area relatively quickly, but be prepared for quite a few inches of rain with the possibility of flash flooding.
Wind will be less of an issue at your distance from the Atlantic coast. The storm will still pack quite a lot, but most of it will not be reaching the ground. Most likely you'll get your strongest winds within embedded thunderstorms rather than from the cyclone itself.
This is actually not correct in general, and particularly not with Irene.
The primary, greatest threat from tropical cyclones once they have moved well inland is actually from inland flooding.
Tornadoes rank relatively low on the threats from inland tropical cyclones. Most of the misunderstanding is the result of a disproportionate number of hurricanes making landfall in the south, where extremely warm water temps do tend to encourage enough convection to occasionally result in what could legitimately be called a big tornado outbreak; from there, the media, Internet and such, do the rest in creating this perception.
This is not to say that tornadoes are not, or will not, be a threat with Irene. Indeed, several brief tornadoes have already occurred, and will likely continue to do so for some time as Irene travels up the coast.
When it comes to Irene, much of the northeast has experienced one of its wettest Augusts on record, and Irene is producing very copious rains over large areas of land that are already well saturated. Irene is moving relatively slow (especially for a hurricane moving up the east coast), and this 1-2 punch is creating a very high flood threat.
You can read more about the threats associated with inland tropical cyclones here.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 03:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Ah, I am used to Gulf storm remnants tracking up over Maryland that often spawn large amounts of tornadoes. I tend to forget about flooding threats due to terrain in my region not conducive to much in the way of flooding. Thanks for correcting that Cieldumort.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 05:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Vortex recon from about a half hour ago. The storm was over Albemarle Sound at the time this was taken. It has since crossed back onshore and will be moving into the Atlantic soon just south of Virgina Beach (near Corolla).
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:34Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 20:03:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 36°00'N 76°07'W (36.N 76.1167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 25 miles (40 km) to the W (266°) from Kill Devil Hills, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,630m (8,629ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 157° at 73kts (From the SSE at ~ 84.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the ENE (67°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,744m (9,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,744m (9,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) in the east quadrant at 19:36:00Z
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 05:31 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
No doubt about it, Irene re-intensified a little bit throughout the day.
A couple of different factors at play today working together to make the increased organization possible: 1) Appreciably improved outflow 2) initial land interaction, resulting in banding right around the center curving back inwards, and 3) much of the circulation remaining over warm water.
The land interaction and warm water is diminishing tonight, and shear is forecast to increase. Nonetheless, Irene is going to take a pretty long time to spin down. Residents further north along the coast should not be fooled into any sort of sense of safety by her Category 1 status. Most Category 1 hurricanes never get anywhere close to as low as 950mb. Irene is a monster cyclone.
| DaViking |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 05:45 PM |
|
|
Duck Pier, NC
|
Center appears to be passing over or near Duck Pier, NC.
Station DUKN7
Winds are sustained at 67 mph gusting to 78 mph as of 5:06 pm with a pressure of 950.9 mb.
pressure could be reporting 1.5 mb lower.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 05:53 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Roanoake Sound east of Manteo, NC
3:45PM Today
5:45PM Today
Photographer: Mike Watkins/Hurricanetrack.com
The surge is still rising, see it on the hurricanetrack stream
Updated Map of Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com, with video and radar for Irene approach See HurricaneTrack.com for more information.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 06:22 PM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Great catch!
Center looks to be closest to Currituck,NC
Latest METAR from the airport:
ICAO KONX
Station Name Currituck
Country US: North Carolina
Location 36.40N 76.02W
Elevation 16 ft
Time 27 / 21:55Z
Temperature 74.3
Dew Point 72.0
RH 92
Heat Index 72.3
Wind NNW (340) at 23kts, 33 gusts
Visibility 1.0 sm
Pressure 953.6 mb
Weather Heavy Rain
Sky Condition Overcast at 500ft
Remarks Hourly Precipitation Amount: 0.61 inch
METAR KONX 272155Z AUTO 34020G29KT 1SM +RA OVC005 24/22 A2816 RMK AO2 P0061 T02350222
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 06:23 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
From NHC 5pm discussion:
MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE
SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH
AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE STRUCTURES WILL EXPERIENCE
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE 30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE
ABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 06:25 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
And from just now
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 06:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
I'm estimating that at a 1 foot rise per hour. Or more.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 07:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
1 Ft every couple of minutes of storm surge currently (live stream, time sensitive)
(LINK)
Edit: Hurricanetrack has estimated a total of six feet over two hours
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 07:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Currently they are near Nags Head. Exact location: http://www.hurricanetrack.com/map/
Chesapeake Bay near Sandy Point State Park (just north of Annapolis):
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 08:01 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
That 950 pressure reading has me concerned. I dont recall a Cat1 ever having a pressure reading that low. Is it possible that baroclinic influences have started to act on Irene? Also, wont a low pressure increase the surge?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 08:15 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
I would think the low pressure would increase the surge. It has in other storms.
Using deltaP of 1013 minus mcp (current) 950 mb = 63/ 4= a possible surge height of 15.75 feet
(Formula has not been peer reviewed. But has been checked against many hurricanes from Category 1 up.
Formula was within a +/- 1 foot margin for Katina's high Water Marks~danielw)
This doesn't mean Irene will produce a 15.75 foot surge. It suggest Irene is capable of generating a surge to that limit.
Note: I have attached a jpeg of a spreadsheet that I developed a few years ago for calculating or estimating Storm Parameters, called HurriSheet. Some of the formulas are used by Meterologists the others are simple variations of their formulas. A+B=C/ D type formulas.~danielw
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2011 08:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
|
Quote:
That 950 pressure reading has me concerned. I dont recall a Cat1 ever having a pressure reading that low. Is it possible that baroclinic influences have started to act on Irene? Also, wont a low pressure increase the surge?
While baroclinic influences have been underway, these are not the only, even primary, reason for Irene's relatively very low pressure. Recall that Ike as a Cat 2 also had very low pressure (also about 950mb, in fact). Extra large and powerful hurricanes do not always end up concentrating their force within the core, and such has been the case with Irene, in many ways much as it had been with Ike.
This lower pressure is helping result in higher-than-usual surge for the given Saffir-Simpson category. It is important to note that the Saffir-Simpson scale is a wind scale, only. The NHC has dropped suggesting any relation to surge, pressure, anything else, other than wind. However, if one wants to relate the current overall intensity of Irene to the old SS scale, 950mb would have lined up with Category 3.