Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Sep 24 2011 11:22 AM
The Active Season Continues

Update: Monday, October 3, 2011 - 915AM
Ophelia is now a tropical storm located over extreme eastern Newfoundland and moving rapidly off to the east northeast while transitioning to an extratropical system. Cape Race reported a peak gust of 53 knots (61mph) at 03/1254Z.

Philippe survives as a heavily sheared tropical storm that will remain at sea in the central Atlantic.

The ECMWF long range model hints at a developing system near south Florida toward the end of the week, while the GFS is even later in developing this system. At the moment, this potential development is just speculation, i.e., fodder for the Forecast Lounge. The site has become quiet so the updates will be minimal until/unless something new materializes.

Update: Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 1130PM
Ophelia has passed well to the east of Bermuda - and has intensified to Cat IV. Ophelia has peaked and a much weakened cyclone could bring strong tropical storm force winds to eastern Newfoundland Monday morning.


Weather Conditions at Cape Race, Newfoundland

Tropical Storm Philippe was located about 1,000 miles east southeast of Bermuda late Saturday evening . Although battered by strong outflow from Hurricane Ophelia, Philippe has managed to strengthen and has flirted with hurricane intensity Saturday evening - currently with sustained winds of 60 knots. In a few days Philippe is expected to turn to the north and north northeast and remain at sea. Philippe has also likely peaked and should begin to weaken under the strong northerly windshear created by Ophelia.

Update: Thursday, Sept. 29, 2011 - 6PM
Ophelia is now a Cat I Hurricane located well to the south southeast of Bermuda moving slowly to the north northwest. Ophelia is expected to pass to the east of Bermuda late Saturday afternoon.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. Bermuda could begin to experience Tropical Storm force winds late Saturday.

Bermuda Weather Conditions

Bermuda Weather Radar

Tropical Storm Philippe, located in the central Atlantic well to the east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and in spite of the influence of significant windshear, has actually increased slightly in strength and is now expected to maintain identity as a tropical cyclone well into next week. On Saturday, Philippe should begin to take a westward track that should maintain itself for quite a few days.

Update: Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2011 - 1210AM
Ophelia and Philippe are doing a flip-flop. Ohelia had become a remnant low but is back to Tropical Depression status as the shear relaxed and convection rebuilt near an elongated center. Ophelia is just about stationary roughly 240 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. A slow movement to the northwest and north northwest is forecast with improving chances for additional intensification. The NHC track takes Ophelia east of Bermuda as a Cat I hurricane Saturday evening.

Philippe, under strong west southwesterly windshear is doing just the opposite. Philippe is a weakening tropical storm that is likely to dwindle to tropical depression status and remain that way - or become an open wave - for the next few days. Philippe should move northwest and then take a more westerly track as high pressure builds to the north of the system this weekend.

Update: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2011 - Noon
NHC continues with continuity on Ophelia, however its likely that the system has been an open wave for about 24 hours. Convection is located 200 miles to the east of the assigned center. Without convection reforming around a closed center, Ophelia cannot sustain classification as a tropical cyclone.

Philippe is fighting some shear as well in the far eastern Atlantic. Philippe will eventually move off to the northwest and north, however its projected intensification to minimal hurricane strength seems optimistic at this point.

The area of convection in the northern Bahamas (briefly tagged as Invest 91L) with a weak center east of Miami is drifting slowly to the west. From an organizational standpoint it looks better than Ophelia, however tropical development is currently not anticipated.

Original Post: Saturday, Sept. 24, 2011 - 1124AM EDT
Tropical Storm Ophelia continues as a sheared system that should remain weak while passing to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday. Tropical Depression 17 has formed from Invest 90L and the system is moving west at 12 knots. TD17 is a small but well organized cyclone located about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. With light shear and SSTs at 28C, additional intensification to Tropical Storm Philippe is likely tonight or early on Sunday. Both systems are expected to remain at sea.
ADDED: TD17 upgraded to TS Philippe at 24/21Z.

An area of convection over the Bahamas is associated with the southern extent of a trough and chances for tropical development are currently at 20%.



Sat Sep 24 2011 03:27 PM
Re: The Active Season Continues

Situation not urgent however indications are clear that a TC is attempting to form amid an area of elongated low pressure extending N-S through the Bahamas. There is an axis of rotation evident near 28.5N/78W. The region is situated over ample oceanic heat content, has little or no dry air to contend with, and has reasonable upper level divergent winds. It is currently moving N at ~ 12kts.

This is a rather abrupt introduction, but is real nonetheless. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (orange colored region).

This area was/is actually track-able going back some 48 hours as a disturbance/TW producing significant bursts of convection as it neared the SE Bahamas over that time. I was curious what this might do when it arrived in the current location; TC can sometimes generate in this region when disturbances encounter improving mass-sink diflluent flow aloft (a condition consistent with having a closed low aloft over the N Tenn Valley, while subtropical ridging persists in the western Atlantic.

It is unknown to what extent this will take off, if does at all ... but it is worthy of note considering the current deep layer steering would warrant caution.

Chris Bryant
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 24 2011 06:13 PM
Re: The Active Season Continues

Looks like they are calling it 91l (?) They have runs for it at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Sep 24 2011 07:54 PM
Re: The Active Season Continues

It was indeed designated as 91L, however the chances for tropical cyclone formation have been lowered to 20%. It looks like it may be already starting to merge with the trough off the east coast - the central area of lower pressure became quite elongated. A northward movement along the trough is likely.

(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 27 2011 09:52 AM
Pending 16??

Is this a reformed Ophelia and will it keep that name?

(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 27 2011 04:36 PM
Re: Pending 16??

Recon found a center, and Ophelia looks as good as it ever has. I believe that the center is reforming south of where the aircraft center is. They have not really sampled that area yet. Not a lot of wind so far but the visible is starting to look more impressive

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