Cr: Phil Klotzbach

It goes without saying that we are in uncharted territory.

Elsewhere, both Hurricane Jose and Katia have strengthened further, 85 MPH and 80 MPH, respectively. There is a chance either or both will also become Majors.

5PM EDT 06 September 2017 Update

Jose AND Katia were both upgraded to a hurricane at 5PM

For Katia:
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of the state of Veracruz from Tuxpan to Laguna Verde.

For Irma:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

11:30AM EDT 06 September 2017 Update

Irma has moved over St. Maarten and Barbuda overnight and is approaching the British Virgin islands this morning, the forecast track has shifted right for an east coast run up Florida, east or on the euro ensembles, west of the GFS. The hurricane itself is moving or wobbling to the south, which may bring more impact to the US VI and Puerto Rico than previously forecast.

Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for for the coast of Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince.

The government of France has discontinued all warnings for Guadeloupe.

The government of Antigua has discontinued all warnings for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.

Oh and Tropical Storm Katia forms in the Gulf, headed toward Mexico.

8:30PM EDT 05 September 2017 Update

New Threads: Lounge (Future Track speculation - Observations Weather and Public - Real time updates on current Irma conditions go as comments to this news article. - General Tips and questions.

5PM EDT 05 September 2017 Update
TD#13 Forms in Bay of Campeche likely to Impact Mexico, Jose in Central Atlantic.

2PM EDT 05 September 2017 Update
Recon finds pressure of 926mb, 185mph winds.

8AM EDT 05 September 2017 Update
Hurricane hunters found Irma has strengthened into a category 5 storm, with sustained winds now at 175 MPH and a pressure down to 929mb.

New Threads: Lounge (Future Track speculation - Observations Weather and Public - Real time updates on current Irma conditions go as comments to this news article. - General Tips and questions.

5AM EDT 05 September 2017 Update

The last late night recon missions into Irma left a few hours ago finding winds supporting mid-range Category 4. Since then, the satellite appearance of Irma has improved even more, with satellite-based intensity estimates coming in closer to or at Cat 5. NHC will want a little more confirmation and maybe at least one or two new complete recon passes before making such a call. A new mission is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma shortly. There is a good chance that it will find Irma a Cat 5, or very close to it.

The bottom line - Irma is an extremely dangerous hurricane. Those within her 24 hour path should now be rushing life-saving preparations to completion. Surge prone low lying areas will likely become inundated. Even well built structures may sustain crippling damage from the wind and be uninhabitable for weeks, or longer.

-Ciel

Hurricane Irma is the second Major Hurricane of 2017 in the Atlantic basin to directly threaten large numbers of people, possibly including here in the United States. After a record hiatus of US landfalls, a return to the mean, or even beyond, may be underway, and residents inside the 3 and 5 day NHC cones are urged to take this very seriously, and begin preparing for impacts - potentially catastrophic. It's time to pay extra close attention to this one.

There is still a considerably greater than normal uncertainty in the Hurricane Irma track after Day 5. Florida should watch closely.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 11AM AST:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

We are also keeping a close eye on what could become future Jose and maybe also future Katia: (94L in the central Tropical Atlantic southeast of Irma and a persistent trof in the SW Gulf of Mexico).

Go beyond the cone! Read and share educated best guesses on these systems in our Lounges. Grab a double shot of your favorite beverage (you might need it) and join us for forecasts and model discussions beyond 72 hours and more in the Lounge!

Huricane Irma Forecast Lounge , SW Gulf Low Lounge, Invest 94L Lounge

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Port St Maarten Webcam

Eastern Caribbean Radar Recording for Irma

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Port Gustavia, St. Barth Live Stream Camera Flhurricane time lapse recording of this camera

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Harvey Related flhurricane recordings