Tue Oct 10 2017 07:24 AM
Ophelia Azores, Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland

12 PM Update 14 October 2017
Ophelia has become the sixth Major of this Hyperactive 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

While likely undergoing or having completed extratropical transition, Ophelia is now expected to enter Ireland at hurricane intensity, with an ever-expanding wind field.

48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

7 AM Update 13 October 2017

Ophelia is moving the east northeast currently as a category 2 hurricane and should move just east o the Azores, after this it may be near or over Ireland as an extra tropical storm (similar to what Sandy was right at landfall in New Jersey) If the forecast holds as is, it's possible for storm surge and strong winds to show up along the western coast of Ireland.on Monday, and later Scotland on Tuesday. It wouldn't be a tropical system at that time, but it still would have a lot of the energy. There is still a great deal of uncertainty at that range of the forecast.

There have been other tropical systems that have gone on to Ireland or the UK before, including Debbie in 1961, but they are extremely rare. Katia in 2011 was another example.

Additionally there is a system east of the lesser Antilles with a 20% chance for development over the next 4 days, this area would likely curve north away fromt he islands, but Bermuda may still need to watch it.

Opheliia Links

Met Eireann -- Irish Meteorological Service
United Kingdom Meteorological Service

Original Update
Tropical Storm Ophelia is active in the far east Atlantic, and expected to remain there well away from any land areas. It is forecast to become ahurricane, but only affect shipping.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic there is not immediately threats of development, and nothing obvious in the mid range either. The areas to typically watch are the Gulf, West Atlantic and especially the Western Caribbean (where Nate came from), but none of these areas currently have anything going on. Things tend to change fairly quick in October, though, so it's worth keeping up with every few days. The season starts to wind down around the last week of October, so with a little luck Nate may be the last landfall we'll deal with this year.

But, there still remains a good amount of energy left, so there's still a very good chance that something else could form before the season is done.

We'll be watching.

{{StormLinks|Ptl 18|18|18|2017|18|Potential Tropical Cyclone 18}}


Sat Oct 14 2017 04:10 PM
Re: Ophelia Azores, Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland

Several of the most recent reliable satellite derived intensity and wind estimates suggest that Ophelia may be heading to, if not already at, Cat 4. Would love it if someday we can gather recon data from way out in the Atlantic - even remote controlled flights would be incredibly informative.

Sat Oct 14 2017 04:16 PM
Re: Ophelia Azores, Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland

This is indeed what confirmed Cat 4s often look like.

Sat Oct 14 2017 10:06 PM
Re: Ophelia Azores, Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland

(Registered User)
Sun Oct 15 2017 05:30 AM
Re: Ophelia Azores, Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland

We're feeling the effect of Ophelia in Birmingham, England - no wind yet but really unseasonably high temperatures - around 10 degrees Celsius (18 degs F) higher than normal for October.

(Registered User)
Mon Oct 16 2017 06:31 AM
Re: Ophelia Azores, Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland

Wind starting to pick up a bit here, nothing like it will be in Ireland though. We're having another strange Ophelia-related event though, the Sun is quite strange today, the sky is a pinky colour, apparently due to large amounts of Saharan sand being carried with the system. One of the local radio stations has got some good photos http://www.channel103.com/sky-looks-strange/

(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Oct 17 2017 09:54 AM
Re: Ophelia Azores, Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland

The Saharan sand has made it to Hamburg by today. Very similar looks of the sun and sky here in Germany today.

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 23 2017 08:09 AM
Western Caribbean Development Possible

Development chances are up to 40% in the western Caribbean according to the NHC for the next 5 days. Slow development is possible as a broad area of low pressure slowly develops and moves W/NW.

(Weather Analyst)
Mon Oct 23 2017 02:04 PM
Re: Western Caribbean Development Possible

models shunt this off to the NE away from US

(Weather Guru)
Tue Oct 24 2017 07:51 AM
Re: Western Caribbean Development Possible

The Great frontal wall has set up for the year (pushing through Florida right now). It's highly unlikely there will be any more CONUS landfall this year.

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