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4AM ET Update 26 September 2018 Kirk underwent tropical cyclone regeneration over the past 24 hours and Advisories are resuming. As winds are already blowing at or above 40 MPH and the storm is now also much closer to the Lesser Antilles, this includes Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings. Elsewhere, Leslie is undergoing a rapid merging and regeneration. As enough of her core has remained intact, the cyclone is expected to keep the same name, and advisories are likely to resume as soon as later today. Leslie may become a very powerful tropical and/or hybrid cyclone and stay with us for quite a while, possibly racking up sizeable ACE points for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but fortunately doing so well away from most land. Invest 98L is passing by the Carolinas, adding to the influx of moisture in the region and reigniting flooding woes. The weak Low now has only a modest chance of becoming classified, and is likely to zip out to sea by Friday, either way. 4PM ET Update 22 September 2018 A tropical cornucopia of systems are now filling the screens as we close out the end of an already very active September. With this update we now have two new Tropical Cyclones: TD ELEVEN, located about 450 miles east of the Windward Islands, and also Tropical Storm Kirk, located in the far eastern Atlantic. There are another six Areas of Interest coming up, two of which may become subtropical or tropical cyclones by the early part of next week (98L between Bermuda and the Carolinas, plus also the large, non-tropical Low in the central Atlantic). Despite forecasts for a near-to-below-average year, September seems to have made other plans. We now already have had six named storms this month. The record for named storms in any one month in the Atlantic going back though known history is eight, which has occurred five times: Oct 1950, Sep 2002, Aug 2004, Sep 2010, and most recently Aug 2012. Two more names this month would tie that record, three would break it. Original Entry The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs through the end of November and we have several reminders of that today. Indications are strong that the last ten days of this month will likely not go out quietly, with several lows and a couple African Easterly Waves already on the radar. Two of these features in particular have already been Invest tagged, 97L and 98L. Of these two, 98L appears to be organizing rapidly today, with maximum sustained winds already to tropical storm force approaching the island nation of Bermuda. This system is especially interesting, as it looks to have been spawned in part from an infusion of energy from x-Florence. Main page mapping and links will be coming soon. Meanwhile, you can also track model outputs and more with us in the Forecast Lounge: 99L (Now Tropical Storm Kirk) Forecast Lounge 98L Forecast Lounge 97L (Now TD ELEVEN) Forecast Lounge {{StormLinks|11|11|11|2018|11|Tropical Depression Eleven}} {{StormLinks|12L|12|12|2018|12|Tropical Storm Kirk}} {{StormLinks|Leslie|13|13|2018|13|Leslie}} {{StormLinks|98L|98|14|2018|98|98L}} {{StormCarib}} {{MidAtlanticRadar}} |
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TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 52.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. |
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Florence flooding still occurring see https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?401 |
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Tropical Storm Kirk at Noon EDT, Wednesday. |
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(Kirk) Several clean SFMR and flight-level results support 65 MPH - and still intensifying. Tracking NW or maybe even NNW, at least at this time. |
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The 2PM Intermediate Advisory set Kirk's winds at a possibly conservative 60 MPH. This cyclone is undergoing a healthy rate of deepening today, going from an estimated1004mb while the plane was approaching, to 998mb during the last pass though the center. Microwave passes show clear evidence of an incipient eye, not yet apparent in conventional satellite. The last pass though Kirk's center also supports potential for an eye to form today, with a very impressive warm core already in place. Quote: |