3AM EDT Update 10 October 2018
Michael is now an intensifying Cat 4 hurricane, and has a real chance to make Cat 5 before landfall later today. This is a historic hurricane, and unfortunately for many, its impacts will never be forgotten.



Those in evacuation zones who have been ordered to leave, you are being urged to do so *if it is still safe* Otherwise, it's bunker down. If avoiding storm surge by staying at a higher building level, remember that winds will be stronger the higher up one goes. Stay away from windows and anything that could become airborne projectiles in the event windows are blown out and/or roofs are blown away and/or walls collapse. If certain rooms are at risk for felled trees or telephone poles etc., consider avoiding those rooms altogether. The general safety protocols for surviving a tornado may apply (inner room - ideally not on a top floor).

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL142018
242 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 /142 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/

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This product covers
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Catastrophic storm surge and winds are expected from Michael. Hurricane Michael is now at category 4 hurricane. Michael is expected to make landfall as a category 4 along the Florida Panhandle Coast or Big Bend. This is an unprecedented event as there are no Category 4 storms on record to have made landfall along the Florida Panhandle coast. Michael is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge, widespread power outages that will last days to even more than a week in some areas, downed trees that will block access to roads and endanger individuals, structural damage to homes and businesses, isolated flash flooding and the potential for tornadoes. Trees falling on homes will become a dangerous and potentially deadly situation. If you have been ordered to evacuate by authorities, we urge you to do so. Early this morning is your last chance to move to a safer location.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
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* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastline. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW Georgia and SE Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW Georgia and SE Alabama. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across Eastern Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

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8PM EDT Update 9 October 2018
Michael is a strengthening major hurricane that has a high chance to make category 4 before landfall near Panama City Beach, FL tomorrow afternoon.

Those in the area are out of time to prepare as tonight conditions will start to deteriorate. Storm surge will be the most dangerous aspect of this hurricane.

Listen to local officials and media for information on your local area.



7AM EDT Update 9 October 2018

Because of the fast movement forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the southeastern coast of the United States from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. This may be extended a bit north later.

Michael is held at 90mph hurricane overnight with some affects from shear and dry air from the western side. Both of those factors for keeping it in check are diminishing today, recon reports within the last few minutes now show it starting another set of organizing again.

The system, despite that, is becoming better defined and will enter an area of less shear later today, at that point it is likely to undergo another round of strengthening, and a category 3 storm with 120mph is forecast for landfall in the Panhandle within the hurricane warning area. Most of the worst (but not all) of the surge and weather will be on the eastern side.

Evacuation orders are out for parts of the Panhandle and Big Bend Areas, pay attention to local media and officials for information for your particular area. If you are asked to evacuate, please do so. Conditions will start to deteriorate this evening, if not a little sooner in the hurricane warning area.st.

Those in the southeast may receive some strong wind, power outages, and surge as well after the storm makes landfall. Some coastal surge flooding may also occur along the east coast deepening on the prevailing wind direction and which direction the coast faces vs the wind.



11AM EDT Update 8 October 2018
Michael is now a hurricane, and a major hurricane is now forecast to landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday.

5AM Update 8 October 2018

Hurricane watches are now up from Al/FL Border east to Suwanee River. Tropical Storm watch east and south of there along the west coast of Florida to Anna Maria Island (Including Tampa Bay) for Michael, which is nearly a hurricane this morning with 70mph Winds. The official forecast takes Michael in as a cat 2 currently Wednesday Afternoon, however there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major category 3 hurricane before landfall (and the official Hurricane Center discussion calls that out). So prepare for that.

Listen to local media and officials for your area, and if you are asked to evacuate along the water please do so. The area forecast for landfall is extremely susceptible to storm surge particularly at the landfall point and east of it. In fact, A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.

Since Michael is expected to reach hurricane status very soon, before it enters the Gulf, the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.



Noon EDT Update 7 September 2018
Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.



10:45 AM EDT Update 7 September 2018
Tropical Depression 14 has formed in the Western Caribbean and Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Western Cuba and parts of the Yucatan.

Forecast models and the official suggest a hurricane hit for the Gulf coast (Panhandle) on Wednesday. The potential for rapid intensification exists, so it would be prudent to prepare for a potential major, and hope it stays a cat 1/2.

Florida governor Rick Scott has issued a state of emergency for Florida to open up resources to support anything that happens with what will be named Michael.


Original Update

September wrapped up very active, with 1 Major, 1 Cat Two, 1 Cat One, 4 Tropical Storms, 1 TD, and was the first month since 2008 (that's a lot of months) to have four simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic basin: Florence, Isaac, Helene and Joyce.

October is historically the month when points of origin pull in closer to home, and one of the more common ways we see tropical cyclones form during the month is from spinoffs of a Central American Gyre, which is a sprawling seasonal area of low pressure that can sometimes serve as a sort of disturbance factory. Like the name suggests, this gyre takes up shop over central America, and can last for up to several weeks.

The first disturbance to be Invest tagged on the Atlantic side has a high chance of becoming a named storm, with some chance of becoming significant, especially if allowed enough time before coming ashore. We have a Forecast Lounge now up for this one: 91L/FOURTEEN/MICHAEL Lounge.

Another Low associated with the parent gyre we are watching is just barely on the Pacific side of central America, and there is some tepid model support for it to cross over into the Caribbean or Gulf. In fact, there's a pretty decent shot that 91L and 97E do not end up being the last spinoff from the gyre, and will continue to update on any of these other potentials in the 2018 Forecast Lounge .

Elsewhere, Leslie continues hanging on meandering in the central Atlantic like a good September storm. ("Gone fishing!")

Michael Related Radars/Webcam recordings

Weather Stem (Webcams at schools in the area)

Storm Chaser Position Map

Michael Satellite

Bay county traffic cameras

Wisconsin Michael Satellite (W Track and radar)

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{{PanhandleMedia}}

{{StormLinks|Michael|14|14|2018|14|Michael}}
{{StormLinks|Leslie|13|13|2018|13|Leslie}}
{{StormLinks|Nadine|15|15|2018|14|Nadine}}

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 18:52Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Tropical Depression: Fourteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 18:14:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.89N 86.24W
B. Center Fix Location: 137 statute miles (221 km) to the E (79°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 714m (2,343ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix at 17:52:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 87° at 42kts (From the E at 48.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 70 nautical miles (81 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix at 17:48:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 39kts (44.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 18:39:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 225° at 48kts (From the SW at 55.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 18:47:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 757m (2,484ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) which was observed 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 18:47:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 13:52Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 13:32:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.78N 86.20W
B. Center Fix Location: 278 statute miles (447 km) to the W (273°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,805m (9,203ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 13kts (From the SSW at 15mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 91kts (104.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix at 13:27:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 104kts (From the ESE at 119.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 13:26:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 63kts (72.5mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 13:37:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 319° at 77kts (From the NW at 88.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 13:36:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,032m (9,948ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 13:26:30Z

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Observation Number: 23

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 10:50:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.81N 86.34W
B. Center Fix Location: 103 statute miles (165 km) to the SSW (203°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,540m (8,333ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 210° at 24kts (From the SSW at 28mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (119.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 10:40:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 327° at 104kts (From the NNW at 119.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the WSW (241°) of center fix at 10:39:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 125kts (143.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNE (31°) of center fix at 10:53:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 135° at 128kts (From the SE at 147.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix at 10:54:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) from the flight level center at 9:00:00Z

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