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Cat 5orBust
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Mon Jul 02 2007 02:19 AM
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central atl
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i know it is rather early to be looking well out in the atlantic and by time I post this it may very well have lost its look, but the wave in the central atlantic looks decent. I know there have been waves coming off africa that have looked impressive and then have died out. just like some thoughts on this one because the shear forecast that i looked at indicated a relatively low shear at least for the next 2 days. the GFS is indicating something possibly getting going and with some articles indicating that the MJO may very well enhance tropical entities in july, this wave may survive? i cant find the link but the quickscat i saw picked up on a possible low level circulation as well as it passed over it. any thoughts would be welcome.
From the Description of the Main News Talkback Discussion: "you can only reply to the topics covered in existing main page articles. " This post was moved because this wave is not mentioned in the Main Page Leadoff Article.
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Steve H1
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(Storm Tracker)
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Mon Jul 02 2007 03:57 PM
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Re: Wave Near Florida
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Interesting little bit of tumbleweed halfway across the pond between the islands and Africa, along the ITCZ. If this thing can get fire some convection we may get an Invest in the next couple of days
From the Description of the Main News Talkback Discussion: "you can only reply to the topics covered in existing main page articles. " This post (and the posts below it) were moved because this wave is not mentioned in the Main Page Leadoff Article.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Mon Jul 02 2007 04:11 PM
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Re: Wave between Islands and Africa
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I noticed that also.If it can get some convection,there would not be much out there to stop any develoment.Very little shear etc.Anyone have a site where I could get pressure readings that far out?It is in the lower right hand corner in this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-vis.html
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madmumbler
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(Storm Tracker)
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Mon Jul 02 2007 08:51 PM
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Re: Wave between Islands and Africa
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I wouldn't get your hopes up on it. The 11:30am TWO says they don't expect significant development out of it. That could change, obviously, but let's hope it doesn't.
Any forecast model run data on it?
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Re: did the front stall?
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yesterday i saw the itcz blip at low latitude out near 35w and said 'nah.' today the thing has gained a tad of latitude and has a slightly better signature (if a tad less convection). i'm still saying 'nah' to myself, but maybe tilting my head at it a bit more. it looks like a reasonably favorable upper pattern will accompany it westward, though the environment is quite dry and its amplitude isn't anything to write home about. just the same, might bear a bit of watching. things rarely happen out there this early, but there is some precedent.
mess near the north american continent is of the less interesting variety. the weak low near florida is reduced to a frontal trough closer to bermuda than anywhere.. still some weak shortwave energy along the sagging frontal boundary that is trying to wash out in the southeast. not much doing just yet.
HF 2249z02july
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Storm Hunter
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Mon Jul 02 2007 11:02 PM
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Re: did the front stall?
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Agree with hank... out near 40w. Some of the Globals take this into the Carribean in a few days. Its pretty dry out there, and there is some Dust around. Based on the pattern, this wave should keeping moving wnw. I also see that the CMC wants to throw up something of Florida east cost in a few days. VERY WEAK... I would keep my eye on the wave in the atlantic... if it holds, i would expect an invest from navy on it tomorrow.
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